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CHARTS

MONETARY POLICY MEETING 3 NOVEMBER 2021

(2)

Monetary Policy Report 3/21, overall picture

Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank 2

Output gap Policy rate

Inflation (CPI) Inflation (CPI-ATE)

-9 -6 -3 0 3

-9 -6 -3 0 3

2015 2018 2021 2024

-1 0 1 2 3

-1 0 1 2 3

2015 2018 2021 2024

0 1 2 3 4 5

0 1 2 3 4 5

2015 2018 2021 2024

0 1 2 3 4 5

0 1 2 3 4 5

2015 2018 2021 2024

(3)

Number of infected per day

3

Registered infected per 100 000 population. Seven-day moving average.

2 Mars 2020 – 2 November 2021

Sources: Refinitiv Datastream and Norges Bank

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20 Mar-21 Jun-21 Sep-21 US

Euro area UK

Sweden Norway

(4)

Hospitalisations

4

Number of Covid patients in hospital per 100 000 inhabitants.

22 January 2020 - 31 October 2021

1)

1) 28 October for the UK, 22 October for Norway and 24 October for France and Denmark.

Sources: ourworldindata.org and Norges Bank

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21

US UK

France Norway Denmark

(5)

Vaccination coverage

5

Share of fully vaccinated. Percent.

15 December 2020 – 2 November 2021

Source: Refinitiv Datastream

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Dec-20 Feb-21 Apr-21 Jun-21 Aug-21 Oct-21

US Germany UK

Sweden France Italy

Denmark Spain Norway

(6)

GDP forecast for trading partners 1)

1) Thirteen trading partners. Export weights. 6

Sources: Consensus Economics, IMF, and Norges Bank

Index. 2019 = 100. 2019 – 2024

94 96 98 100 102 104 106 108 110 112

94 96 98 100 102 104 106 108 110 112

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

MPR 3/21

Consensus forecast October Consensus forecast September IMF October

(7)

PMI for trading partners

7

Diffusion index. January 2018 – September 2021

PMI services PMI manufacturing

10 20 30 40 50 60 70

10 20 30 40 50 60 70

2018 2019 2020 2021 US

Euro area UK

10 20 30 40 50 60 70

10 20 30 40 50 60 70

2018 2019 2020 2021 US

Euro area UK

Source: Refinitiv Datastream

(8)

PMI manufacturing

8

PMI manufacturing delivery times. Under 50 = longer delivery times.

January 2005 – October 2021

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020

US

Euro area UK

Sweden

Source: Refinitiv Datastream

(9)

Consumer prices

Twelve-month change. Percent. January 2018 – September 2021

Headline CPI Core CPI

Source: Refinitiv Datastream 9

-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

2018 2019 2020 2021

US Euro area

UK Sweden

-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

2018 2019 2020 2021

US Euro area

UK Sweden

(10)

Oil and gas spot and futures prices

10

Oil. USD per barrel. Natural gas. USD per MMBtu

Sources: Refinitiv Datastream and Norges Bank

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Gas (l.h.s.)

Oil (r.h.s.)

Futures prices 2 November 2021 Futures prices MPR 3/21

(11)

Money market rates for trading partners

11

Three-month money market rates for Norway’s trading partners.

Percent. 2015 Q1 – 2024 Q4

Sources: Refinitiv Datastream and Norges Bank

-0,5 0 0,5 1

-0,5 0 0,5 1

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Forward rates MPR 3/21

Forward rates 2 November 2021

(12)

Policy rates in selected countries

12

Policy rates and estimated forward rates

1)

. Percent. January 2015 –

December 2024. 2 November 2021 (solid line) and MPR 3/21 (dashed line)

1) Overnight Index Swap (OIS) rates.

2) ECB deposit facility rate.

Sources: Bloomberg, Refinitiv Datastream and Norges Bank

-1 0 1 2 3

-1 0 1 2 3

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 US

UK

Euro area²⁾

Sweden

(13)

Long-term sovereign yields

13

Ten-year government bonds. Percent. 1. Jan 2020 – 2. Nov 2021

-1 -0,5 0 0,5 1 1,5 2

-1 -0,5 0 0,5 1 1,5 2

Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21 Jul-21

US UK

Germany Sweden Norway

Source: Bloomberg

MPR 3/21

(14)

Global equity markets

14

Index. 1 January 2020 = 100. 1 January 2020 – 2 November 2021

Sources: Bloomberg and Norges Bank

60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200

60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200

Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21 Jul-21

US Europe

UK China

Emerging economies

MPR 3/21

(15)

Import-weighted exchange rate index (I-44)

15

January 2019 – November 2021

1)

1) Projections for 2021 Q3 – 2021 Q4.

Source: Norges Bank

100

110

120

130

140 100

110

120

130

140

Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 I-44 Projections MPR 3/21

MPR 3/21

Stronger krone

(16)

Three-month money market premium

Percentage points. Five-day moving average.

1 January 2015 – 31 December 2024

1)

1) Projections for 2021 Q3 – 2024 Q4.

Sources: Refinitiv Datastream and Norges Bank

0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1 1,2

0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1 1,2

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Projections MPR 3/21 MPR 3/21

16

(17)

Banks’ residential mortgage rates

17

Nominal, floating interest rate. January 2019 – November 2021

1)

1) Banks’ outstanding mortgage and deposit rates through August 2021. Policy rates and quoted rates up until 2 November 2021.

Sources: Finansportalen, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

-1 0 1 2 3 4

-1 0 1 2 3 4

Jan-19 May-19 Sep-19 Jan-20 May-20 Sep-20 Jan-21 May-21 Sep-21 Outstanding mortgages Deposits Quoted rates Policy rate

(18)

Credit growth

18

C2. Twelve-month change. Percent. January 2015 – September 2021

1)

Non-financial enterprises mainland Norway Households

1) Projections for September 2021 – December 2021.

Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

-2 0 2 4 6 8 10

-2 0 2 4 6 8 10

2015 2017 2019 2021

MPR 3/21

-2 0 2 4 6 8 10

-2 0 2 4 6 8 10

2015 2017 2019 2021

MPR 3/21

(19)

Mainland GDP

19

Monthly and three-month growth. Seasonally adjusted. Percent.

March 2020 – August 2021

1)

1) Projections for September 2021 – December 2021.

Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6

-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6

Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20 Mar-21 Jun-21 Sep-21 Dec-21 Monthly growth

Projections 3/21

Rolling three-month growth

(20)

Expected output growth next quarter

20

Business cycle barometer for manufacturing and mining. Net values.

Seasonally adjusted. 2007 Q1 – 2021 Q3

Source: Statistics Norway

-70 -50 -30 -10 10 30 50 70

-70 -50 -30 -10 10 30 50 70

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021

(21)

Fiscal policy

21

2000-2022. Structural non-oil deficit

Share of trend GDP for mainland Norway.

Percent In billions of 2022 NOK

Source: Ministry of Finance

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 National Budget 2022

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450

2002 2007 2012 2017 2022 National Budget 2022

(22)

Goods consumption

22

Seasonally adjusted volume index. January 2015 – August 2021

1)

125 130 135 140 145 150 155 160

125 130 135 140 145 150 155 160

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

1) Projections for September to December 2021.

Source: Statistics Norway

(23)

Consumer confidence (CCI)

23

Index. May 2007 –– October 2021

Source: ForbrukerMeteret from Opinion

-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15

-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021

CCI Average

(24)

House prices

24

Twelve-month change. Percent. January 2015 – October 2021

1)

1) Projections for September 2021 – December 2021.

Sources: Eiendomsverdi, Finn.no, Real Estate Norway and Norges Bank

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20

-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20

House prices Projections MPR 3/21

(25)

House prices in selected Norwegian cities

25

Twelve-month change. Percent. January 2015 – October 2021

-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30

-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Norway Oslo

Trondheim Bergen

Stavanger and vicinity Tromsø

Kristiansand

Sources: Eiendomsverdi, Real Estate Norway and Finn.no

(26)

Building permits issued for housing starts

In thousands of housing units. January 2000 – September 2021

Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2021

2020 2019

Average (2000-2019)

26

(27)

Unemployment

27

Share of labour force. Seasonally adjusted. Percent.

January 2015 – October 2021

1)

1) Projections for September 2021 – December 2021.

Sources: Norwegian Labour and Welfare Administration (NAV) and Norges Bank

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Registered unemployment Projections MPR 3/21

(28)

Registered fully unemployed

28

Unadjusted. In thousands. Week 18 - week 42 2021

1)

1) Projections week 38 to 52. The numbers are interpolated where weekly numbers are missing. In week 42 NAV did not publish numbers for furloughs, due to technical changes in the data.

Sources: Norwegian Labour and Welfare Administration (NAV) and Norges Bank

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

May-21 Aug-21 Nov-21

Total Furloughs Ordinary

Projections MPR 3/21

(29)

CPI and indicators of underlying inflation

29

Twelve-month change. Percent. January 2015 – September 2021

1)

-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Indicators² CPI

CPI-ATE Median

Inflation target Projections MPR 3/21

1) Projections for September 2021 – December 2021.

2) The band shows the highest and lowest values for CPIM, CPIXE, 20% trimmed mean, weighted median, CPI-XV and CPI common.

Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

(30)

CPI-ATE by supplier sector

30

Twelve-month change. Percent. January 2015 – September 2021

1)

1) Projections for September 2021 – December 2021.

Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

-1 0 1 2 3 4 5

-1 0 1 2 3 4 5

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Imported goods

Domestically produced goods and services

Projections MPR 3/21

30

(31)

Electricity spot and futures prices

31

Øre/kWh. January 2010 – December 2024

Sources: Refinitiv Datastream and Norges Bank

0 40 80 120 160 200

0 40 80 120 160 200

2010 2013 2016 2019 2022

Norway Germany

Futures prices 2 Nov 21 Futures prices MPR 3/21

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