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EXECUTIVE BOARD MEETING

14 AUGUST 2019

(2)

Monetary Policy Report 2/19, overall picture

-1 0 1 2 3

-1 0 1 2 3

2013 2015 2017 2019 2021

2 0

1 2 3 4

0 1 2 3 4

2013 2015 2017 2019 2021

Output gap Policy rate

Inflation (CPI-ATE)

-3 -2 -1 0 1 2

-3 -2 -1 0 1 2

2013 2015 2017 2019 2021

Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

Exchange rate index (I-44)

85 90 95 100 105 110

85 90 95 100 105 110

2013 2015 2017 2019 2021

(3)

US and euro area GDP growth

GDP. Quarterly change. Percent. 2016 Q2 – 2019 Q2

Source: Thomson Reuters 3

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2

2016 2017 2018 2019

US

Euro area

(4)

PMI for Norway’s trading partners

4

Manufacturing and services PMI. Twenty-five main trading partners.

Export weights. January 2010 – July 2019

45 50 55 60

45 50 55 60

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Manufacturing PMI

Services PMI

Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

(5)

Inflation for selected trading partners

5

Twelve-month change. Percent. January 2010 – June/July 2019

Core inflation Headline CPI

-1 0 1 2 3 4 5

-1 0 1 2 3 4 5

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 USEuro area

UKSweden

-1 0 1 2 3 4 5

-1 0 1 2 3 4 5

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 USEuro area

UKSweden

Source: Thomson Reuters

(6)

Global equity markets

6

Index. 1 January 2016 = 100. 1 January 2016 – 12 August 2019

80 100 120 140 160 180

80 100 120 140 160 180

2016 2017 2018 2019

US China Europe UK Norway

MPR 2/19

Sources: Bloomberg and Norges Bank

(7)

Long-term sovereign yields

Ten-year government bonds. Percent. 1 January 2018 – 12 August 2019

Sources: Bloomberg and Norges Bank

-1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4

-1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4

Jan-18 Apr-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19

US UK Germany Sweden Norway

MPR 2/19

(8)

Policy rates

8

Policy rates and estimated forward rates

1)

. Percent.

12 August 2019 (solid line) and MPR 2/19 (broken line)

-1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3

-1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

USEuro area UKSweden

2)

1) Forward rates are based on Overnight Index Swap (OIS) rates.

2) ECB deposit facility rate.

Sources: Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

(9)

Money market rates for Norway’s trading partners

9

Three-month money market rates for Norway’s trading partners.

Percent. 2012 Q1 – 2019 Q2

1)

1) Projections to 2022 Q4.

Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

-0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5

-0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5

2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

MPR 2/19 12 August 2019

(10)

Crude oil spot and futures prices

10

USD/barrel. January 2013 – December 2022

Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

2013 2015 2017 2019 2021

Spot price

Futures price 12 August 2019 Futures price MPR 2/19

(11)

Import-weighted exchange rate index (I-44)

11

1 September 2018 – 12 August 2019

Source: Norges Bank

101

103

105

107

109 101

103

105

107

109Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19

I-44

Average, Q3

Projections MPR 2/19

Stronger NOK

MPR 2/19

(12)

Three-month money market premium

12

Percentage points. 1 January 2015 – 31 December 2022

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Norwegian money market premium Projections MPR 2/19

Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

MPR 2/19

(13)

Banks’ mortgage rates

13

Nominal, floating interest rate. February 2015 – May 2019

1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5

1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Outstanding mortgages New mortgages

Source: Statistics Norway

(14)

GDP mainland Norway

14

Monthly and three-month growth. Seasonally adjusted. Percent.

February 2016 – May 2019

1)

1) Projections for 2019 Q2 – 2019 Q3.

Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

-1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5

-1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5

Feb-16 Aug-16 Feb-17 Aug-17 Feb-18 Aug-18 Feb-19 Aug-19 Monthly growth

Three-month growth

Quarterly projections MPR 2/19

(15)

Business tendency survey and PMI

15

Business tendency survey. Composite indicator. Net figures. PMI.

Diffusion index. Seasonally adjusted. February 2004 – July 2019

1)

1) Business tendency survey to 2019 Q2.

Sources: DNB Markets, Norsk forbund for innkjøp og logistikk (NIMA) and Statistics Norway

35 40 45 50 55 60 65

-25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25

2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019

Business tendency survey (l.h.s.) PMI (r.h.s.)

(16)

Private consumption

16

Private consumption for households and non-profit organisations.

Three-month growth. Seasonally adjusted. Percent.

June 2016 – June 2019

1)

1) Growth in goods consumption in March is based on the Index of household goods consumption (VKI).

Source: Statistics Norway

-2 -1 0 1 2

-2 -1 0 1 2

Jun-16 Dec-16 Jun-17 Dec-17 Jun-18 Dec-18 Jun-19

Total consumption Services consumption Goods consumption

Goods consumption in June

(17)

House prices

17

Percent. January 2015 – July 2019

Sources: Eiendomsverdi, Finn.no and Real Estate Norway

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 -10

-5 0 5 10 15

-2 -1 0 1 2 3

Seasonally adjusted monthly change (l.h.s.) Twelve-month change (r.h.s.)

(18)

Unemployment

18

As a percentage of the labour force. Seasonally adjusted.

January 2012 – May/July 2019

1)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Registered unemployment

Registered unemployed and labour market programme participants LFS unemployment

Projections MPR 2/19

1) Projections to September 2019.

Sources: Norwegian Labour and Welfare Administration (NAV), Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

(19)

Inflation

19

Twelve-month change. Percent. January 2012 – July 2019

1)

1) Projections to September 2019.

Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

0 1 2 3 4 5

0 1 2 3 4 5

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

CPI CPI-ATE

Projections MPR 2/19

(20)

CPI-ATE by supplier sector

20

Twelve-month change. Percent. January 2012 – July 2019

1)

1) Projections to September 2019.

Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Imported consumer goods

Domestically produced goods and services Projections MPR 2/19

(21)

SAM 1) forecast for CPI-ATE inflation

21

Four-quarter change. Percent. 2014 Q1 – 2019 Q2

2)

0 1 2 3 4

0 1 2 3 4

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

CPI-ATE

Projections MPR 2/19 SAM MPR 2/19

SAM 9 August 2019

1) System for Averaging short-term Models.

2) Projections to 2019 Q3.

Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

(22)

EXECUTIVE BOARD MEETING

14 AUGUST 2019

Referanser

Last ned nå ( PDF - 22 sider - 0.93 MB )

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