CHARTS
MONETARY POLICY MEETING 4 NOVEMBER 2020
Monetary Policy Report 3/20, overall picture
2
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Output gap Policy rate
Inflation (CPI-ATE) Exchange rate index (I-44)
-1 0 1 2 3
-1 0 1 2 3
2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
-8 -6 -4 -2 0 2
-8 -6 -4 -2 0 2
2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 1 2 3 4 5
2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
90 100 110 120
90 100 110 120
2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
PMI for trading partners
3
Diffusion index. January 2018 – September 2020
PMI services PMI manufacturing
Source: Refinitiv Datastream
10 20 30 40 50 60 70
10 20 30 40 50 60 70
2018 2019 2020
US
Euro area UK
10 20 30 40 50 60 70
10 20 30 40 50 60 70
2018 2019 2020
US
Euro area UK
GDP forecast for trading partners 1)
4
1) Thirteen trading partners. Export weights.
Sources: Consensus Economics, IMF and Norges Bank
Level. Index. 2019 = 100. 2019 – 2023
90 92 94 96 98 100 102 104 106
90 92 94 96 98 100 102 104 106
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
MPR 3/20
IMF World Economic Outlook October 2020 Consensus forecast October 2020
Change in the number of infected per day
5
Change in the number of registered infected per 100 000 population.
Seven-day moving average. 1 January – 2 November 2020
Source: Refinitiv Datastream and Norges Bank
0 10 20 30 40 50
0 10 20 30 40 50
Jan-20 Mar-20 May-20 Jul-20 Sep-20
US
Euro area UK
Sweden Norway
Crude oil spot and futures prices
6
USD/barrel. January 2010 – December 2023
Source: Refinitiv Datastream
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
Spot price
Futures price 3 November 2020 Futures price MPR 3/20
Policy rates
7
Policy rate and estimated forward rates
1). Percent. January 2015 –
January 2023. 3 November 2020 (solid line) and MPR 3/20 (broken line)
1) Forward rates are based on Overnight Index Swap (OIS) rates.
2) ECB deposit facility rate.
Sources: Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank
-1 0 1 2 3
-1 0 1 2 3
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
US UK
Euro area²⁾
Sweden
Money market rates for Norway’s trading partners
8
Three-month money market rates for Norway’s trading partners.
Percent. 2012 Q1 – 2022 Q4
Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank
40969 41030 41091 41153 41214 41275 41334 41395 41456 41518 41579 41640 41699 41760 41821 41883 41944 42005 42064 42125 42186 42248 42309 42370 42430 42491 42552 42614 42675 42736 42795 42856 42917 42979 43040 43101 43160 43221 43282 43344 43405 43466 43525 43586 43647 43709 43770 43831 43891 43952 44013 44075 44136 44197 44256 44317 44378 44440 44501 44562 44621 44682 44743 44805 44866
-1 0 1 2
-1 0 1 2
2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
Forward rates MPR 3/20
Forward rates 3 November 2020
Long-term sovereign yields
Ten-year government bonds. Percent.
1 January 2020 – 3 November 2020
Sources: Bloomberg and Norges Bank
-1 0 1 2 3
-1 0 1 2 3
Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20
US Germany Sweden Norway UK
MPR 3/20
9
Global equity markets
10
Index. 1 January 2020 = 100. 1 January 2018 – 3 November 2020
Sources: Bloomberg and Norges Bank
60 70 80 90 100 110 120
60 70 80 90 100 110 120
Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20
Emerging economies US
China Europe UK
MPR 3/20
Three-month money market premium
11
Percentage points. 1 January 2015 – 31 December 2022
1)0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Norwegian money market premium Projections MPR 3/20
1) Projections for 2020 Q4 – 2022 Q4.
Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank
MPR 3/20
Banks’ residential mortgage rates
12
Nominal, floating interest rate. July 2018 – November 2020
1)1) Banks’ rates for outstanding mortgages and deposits through August 2020. Policy rates and offered rates up until 3 November 2020.
Sources: Finansportalen, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
0 1 2 3 4
0 1 2 3 4
Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20
Outstanding mortgages Policy rate
Deposits Offered rates
Import-weighted exchange rate index (I-44)
13
October 2019 – December 2020
1)Projections for Q4 2020.
Source: Norges Bank
100 105 110 115 120 125 130 135 140 100
105 110 115 120 125 130 135 140
okt/ 19 apr/ 20 okt/ 20
I-44
Projections MPR 3/20
Average Q4 Stronger NOK
GDP mainland Norway
14
Monthly growth. Seasonally adjusted. Percent.
October 2019 – December 2020
1)1) Projections for July - December 2020.
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
-8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4
-8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4
jan. 20 apr. 20 jul. 20 okt. 20
Monthly growth Projections MPR 3/20
Business tendency survey and PMI
15
Business tendency survey. Composite indicator. Net values. PMI.
Diffusion index. Seasonally adjusted. January 2008 – October 2020
Sources: DNB Markets, Norwegian Association of Purchasing and Logistics (NIMA) and Statistics Norway
35 40 45 50 55 60 65
-25 -15 -5 5 15 25
2008 2011 2014 2017 2020
Business tendency survey (l.h.s.) PMI (r.h.s.)
Fiscal policy
16
2000-2021. Structural non-oil deficit
Share of trend GDP for mainland Norway.
Change from previous year In billions of 2021 NOK
Source: Ministry of Finance
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
National budget 2021
-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5
-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
National Budget 2021
2 3 4 5 6 7
2 3 4 5 6 7
2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022
Budget deficit MPR 3/20 Fiscal rule
National Budget 2021
Fiscal policy
Structural non-oil deficit as a share of GPFG. Percent. 2002 – 2023
Sources: Ministry of Finance, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank 17
Goods consumption
18
Seasonally adjusted volume index. January 2015 – August 2020
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
115 120 125 130 135 140 145 150
115 120 125 130 135 140 145 150
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Consumer confidence
19
Consumer Confidence Index (CCI). January 2014 – October 2020
Source: ForbrukerMeteret from Opinion
-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15
-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Card transactions via BankAxept
20
Value of card transactions via BankAxept in 2020 relative to 2019.
1),2)January – October. Percent
1) BankAxept includes only purchases at physical points of sale in Norway and some points of sale across the Swedish border.
2) Working-day adjusted.
Sources: BankAxept and Vipps AS
-70 -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30
-70 -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
Services Goods
House prices
21
Twelve-month change. Percent. January 2014 – December 2020¹ ⁾
1) Projections for September - December 2020.
Sources: Eiendomsverdi, Finn.no, NEF, Real Estate Norway, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20
-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Twelve-month change Projections MPR 3/20
Credit growth
22
C2.Twelve-month change. Percent. January 2014 – December 2020
1)Non-financial enterprises mainland Norway Households
1) Projections for August - December 2020.
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
2014 2016 2018 2020
Projections MPR 3/20
-2 0 2 4 6 8 10
-2 0 2 4 6 8 10
2014 2016 2018 2020
Projections MPR 3/20
Unemployment
Share of labour force. Percent. Seasonally adjusted.
January 2014 – December 2020
1)1) Projections for September - December 2020.
Sources: Norwegian Labour and Welfare Administration (NAV) and Norges Bank
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Registered unemployment Projections MPR 3/20
Fully and partly unemployed
24
Registered unemployed. Percent. January – October 2020
Source: Norwegian Labour and Welfare Administration (NAV)
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
Fully unemployed Partly unemployed
Furloughs
25
Registered furloughs. In thousands. January – October 2020
Source: Norwegian Labour and Welfare Administration (NAV)
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Jan-20 Mar-20 May-20 Jul-20 Sep-20
Total Full Partial
Furloughs and ordinary unemployed
26
Number of unemployed. Week 33 – Week 48
Source: Norwegian Labour and Welfare Administration (NAV) and Norges Bank
0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000 160000
0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000 160000
33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 Fully unemployed
Furloughs (full) Ordinary (fully)
Projections MPR 3/20
LFS employment and hours worked
27
In thousands. Population aged 15-74. Seasonally adjusted.
January 2014 – September 2020
Source: Statistics Norway
1500 2000 2500 3000
1500 2000 2500 3000
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Employed Employed in work Person-weeks worked (37.5 hours)
Employment
28
Firekvartalersvekst i prosent. 1.kv 2017. – 3.kv. 2020
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
2017 2018 2019 2020
Employment according to Jobs and earnings statistics LFS employment
Employment QNA Projections MPR 3/20
CPI and indicators of underlying inflation
29
Twelve-month change. Percent. January 2014 – December 2020
1)1) Projections for September - December 2020.
2) The band shows the highest and lowest values for CPIM, CPIXE, 20% trimmed mean, weighted median, CPI-XV and CPI common.
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 1 2 3 4 5
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Indicators² CPI CPI-ATE Projections MPR 3/20
CPI-ATE by supplier sector
30
Twelve-month change. Percent. January 2014 – December 2020
1)1) Projections for September - December 2020.
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Domestically produced goods and services Imported consumer goods
Projections MPR 3/20
SAM 1) forecast for CPI-ATE inflation
31
Four quarter change. Percent. 2016 Q1 – 2021 Q1
1) System for Averaging short-term Models.
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 1 2 3 4 5
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
SAM 10 September SAM 9 October MPR 3/20
CHARTS
MONETARY POLICY MEETING 4 NOVEMBER 2020
