CHARTS
MONETARY POLICY MEETING 20 JANUARY 2021
Monetary Policy Report 4/20, overall picture
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank 2
Output gap Policy rate
Inflation (CPI-ATE) Exchange rate index (I-44)
-1 0 1 2 3
-1 0 1 2 3
2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
-8 -6 -4 -2 0 2
-8 -6 -4 -2 0 2
2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 1 2 3 4 5
2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
90 100 110 120
90 100 110 120
2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
Change in the number of infected per day
3
Change in the number of registered infected per 100 000 population.
Seven-day moving average. 1 January 2020 – 19 January
1)2021
1) To 14 January for Sweden.
Source: Refinitiv Datastream and Norges Bank
0 20 40 60 80 100
0 20 40 60 80 100
jan.20 mar.20 mai.20 jul.20 sep.20 nov.20 jan.21 US
Euro area UK
Sweden Norway
GDP forecast for trading partners 1)
1) Thirteen trading partners. Export weights. 4
Sources: Consensus Economics, IMF and Norges Bank
Level. Index. 2019 = 100. 2019 – 2023
94 96 98 100 102 104 106
94 96 98 100 102 104 106
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
MPR 4/20
Consensus Forecast December Consensus Forecast January OECD STEP October 2020
PMI for trading partners
5
Diffusion index. January 2018 – December 2020
PMI services PMI manufacturing
Source: Refinitiv Datastream
10 20 30 40 50 60 70
10 20 30 40 50 60 70
2018 2019 2020
US
Euro area UK
10 20 30 40 50 60 70
10 20 30 40 50 60 70
2018 2019 2020
US
Euro area UK
Crude oil spot and futures prices
6
USD/barrel. January 2010 – December 2024
Source: Refinitiv Datastream
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024
Spot price
Futures price 19. January 2021 Futures price MPR 4/20
Policy rates in selected countries
7
Policy rates and estimated forward rates
1). Percent. January 2015 - January 2023. 19 January 2021 (solid line) and MPR 4/20 (dashed line)
1) Overnight Index Swap (OIS) rates.
2) ECB deposit facility rate.
Sources: Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank
-1 0 1 2 3
-1 0 1 2 3
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
US UK
Euro area²⁾
Sweden
Money market rates for trading partners
8
Three-month money market rates for Norway’s trading partners.
Percent. 2012 Q1 – 2022 Q4
Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank
40969 41030 41091 41153 41214 41275 41334 41395 41456 41518 41579 41640 41699 41760 41821 41883 41944 42005 42064 42125 42186 42248 42309 42370 42430 42491 42552 42614 42675 42736 42795 42856 42917 42979 43040 43101 43160 43221 43282 43344 43405 43466 43525 43586 43647 43709 43770 43831 43891 43952 44013 44075 44136 44197 44256 44317 44378 44440 44501 44562 44621 44682 44743 44805 44866
-1 0 1 2
-1 0 1 2
2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
Forward rates MPR 4/20
Forward rates 19 January 2021
Long-term sovereign yields
Ten-year government bonds. Percent.
1 January 2020 – 19 January 2021
Sources: Bloomberg and Norges Bank
-1 0 1 2 3
-1 0 1 2 3
Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21
US Germany Sweden Norway UK
MPR 4/20
9
Global equity markets
10
Index. 1 January 2020 = 100. 2 January 2020 – 19 January 2021
60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130
60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130
Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21
US Europe UK China
Emerging economies
Sources: Bloomberg and Norges Banks Bank
MPR 4/20
Three-month money market premium
11
Percentage points. 1 January 2015 – 31 December 2022
1)0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1 1,2
0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1 1,2
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Norwegian money market premium Projections MPR 4/20
1) Projections for 2020 Q4 – 2022 Q4.
Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank
MPR 4/20
Banks’ residential mortgage rates
12
Nominal, floating interest rate. July 2018 – January 2021
1)1) Banks’ rates for outstanding mortgages and deposits through August 2020. Policy rates and offered rates up until 19 January 2021.
Sources: Finansportalen, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
-1 0 1 2 3 4
-1 0 1 2 3 4
Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21
Outstanding mortgages Policy rate
Deposits Offered rates
Import-weighted exchange rate index (I-44)
13
October 2019 – March 2021
1)1) Projections for Q4 2020 – Q1 2021.
Source: Norges Bank
100 105 110 115 120 125 130 135 140 100
105 110 115 120 125 130 135 140
okt.19 des.19 feb.20 apr.20 jun.20 aug.20 okt.20 des.20 feb.21 I-44 Projections MPR 4/20
Stronger krone
Credit growth
14
C2. Twelve-month change. Percent. January 2015 – March 2021
1)Non-financial enterprises mainland Norway Households
1) Projections for December 2020 - March 2021.
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
-2 0 2 4 6 8 10
-2 0 2 4 6 8 10
2015 2017 2019
MPR 4/20
-2 0 2 4 6 8 10
-2 0 2 4 6 8 10
2015 2017 2019
MPR 4/20
GDP mainland Norway
15
Monthly growth. Seasonally adjusted. Percent.
January 2020 – March 2021
1)1) Projections for November 2021 - March 2021.
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
-8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4
-8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4
Jan-20 Mar-20 May-20 Jul-20 Sep-20 Nov-20 Jan-21 Mar-21 Monthly growth Projections MPR 4/20
Goods consumption
16
Seasonally adjusted volume index
1). January 2015 – November 2020
1) Index of household goods consumption.
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
120 130 140 150 160
120 130 140 150 160
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Card transactions via BankAxept
17
Value of card transactions via BankAxept in 2020 relative to 2019.
1) 2)January – December. Percent
-70 -50 -30 -10 10 30
-70 -50 -30 -10 10 30
Jan-20 Mar-20 May-20 Jul-20 Sep-20 Nov-20 Services Goods
1) BankAxept includes only purchases at physical points of sale in Norway and some points of sale across the Swedish border.
2) Working-day adjusted.
Sources: BankAxept and Vipps AS
House prices
18
Twelve-month change. Percent. January 2015 – March 2021
1)-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20
-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20
2015 2017 2019 2021
Twelve-month change MPR 4/20
1) Projections for December 2020 - March 2021
Sources: Eiendomsverdi, Finn.no, Real Estate Norway and Norges Bank
Unemployment
Share of labour force. Percent. Seasonally adjusted.
January 2018 – March 2021
1)1) Projections for December 2020 – March 2021.
Sources: NAV and Norges Bank
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
2018 2019 2020 2021
Registered unemployment MPR 4/20
Registered unemployment
Share of the labour force. Unadjusted. Week 41 2020 – Week 12 2021
1)1) Projections for Week 51 2020 – Week 12 2021.
Sources: Norwegian Labour and Welfare Administration (NAV) and Norges Bank
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21
Fully unemployed Patially unemployed Total Projectons MPR 4/20 Weekly data not availble
Fully and partly unemployed
21
Registered unemployed. Percent. January – December 2020
Source: Norwegian Labour and Welfare Administration (NAV)
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Des Fully unemployed Partly
unemployed
LFS employment and hours worked
22
In thousands. Population aged 15-74. Seasonally adjusted.
January 2014 – October 2020
Source: Statistics Norway
1500 2000 2500 3000
1500 2000 2500 3000
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Employed
Person-weeks worked (37.5 hours)
Output
Seasonally adjusted. 2005 = 100. January 2015 – November 2020
75 100 125 150 175 200 225
75 100 125 150 175 200 225
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Manufacuring total Oil services Other industries Extraction services
Source: Statistics Norway
CPI and indicators of underlying inflation
Twelve-month change. Percent. January 2014 – March 2021
1)1) Projections December 2020 to March 2021.
2) The band shows the highest and lowest values for CPIM, CPIXE, 20% trimmed mean, weighted median, CPI-XV and CPI common.
3) There is an error in the published monthly projections for the CPI in MPR 4/20. The corrected projections are: 1.8 (Dec), 1.5 (Jan), 2.3 (Feb), 2.7 (Mar). Quarterly and annual projections are correct.
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 1 2 3 4 5
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Indicator² CPI-ATE CPI
Projection CPI-ATE Published projection CPI Corrected projection CPI³
CPI-ATE by supplier sector
25
Twelve-month change. Percent. January 2014 – March 2021
1)1) Projections for December 2020 to March 2021.
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Domestically produced goods and services Imported goods Projection MPR 4/20
SAM 1) projection for the CPI-ATE
26
Four-quarter change. Percent. Q1 2016 – Q1 2021
1) System for Averaging short-term Models.
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 1 2 3 4 5
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
SAM 11 December SAM 11 January MPR 4/20
CHARTS
MONETARY POLICY MEETING 20 JANUARY 2021
