CHARTS
MONETARY POLICY MEETING
18 AUGUST 2021
Monetary Policy Report 2/21, overall picture
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank 2
Output gap Policy rate
Inflation (CPI) Inflation (CPI-ATE)
-9 -6 -3 0 3
-9 -6 -3 0 3
2015 2018 2021 2024
-1 0 1 2 3
-1 0 1 2 3
2015 2018 2021 2024
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 1 2 3 4 5
2015 2018 2021 2024
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 1 2 3 4 5
2015 2018 2021 2024
Number of infected per day
3
Registered infected per 100 000 population. Seven-day moving average.
2 March 2020 – 17 August 2021
Sources: Refinitiv Datastream and Norges Bank
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20 Mar-21 Jun-21
US
Euro area UK
Sweden Norway
Vaccination coverage
4
Share vaccinated with at least one dose. Percent.
15 December 2020 – 17 August 2021
Source: Refinitiv Datastream
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21
US Germany UK
Sweden France Italy
Denmark Spain Norway
GDP forecast for trading partners 1)
5 1) Thirteen trading partners. Export weights. Projections from MPR 2/21 used where data are
missing in the IMF update.
Sources: Consensus Economics, IMF, OECD and Norges Bank
Index. 2019 = 100. 2019 – 2024
94 96 98 100 102 104 106 108 110
94 96 98 100 102 104 106 108 110
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
MPR 2/21
Consensus forecast July Consensus forecast June IMF July update
IMF April 2021
PMI for trading partners
6
Diffusion index. January 2018 – July 2021
PMI services PMI manufacturing
10 20 30 40 50 60 70
10 20 30 40 50 60 70
2018 2019 2020 2021 US
Euro area UK
10 20 30 40 50 60 70
10 20 30 40 50 60 70
2018 2019 2020 2021 US
Euro area UK
Source: Refinitiv Datastream
Consumer prices
7
Twelve-month change. Percent. January 2010 – July 2021
-1 0 1 2 3 4
-1 0 1 2 3 4
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Headline CPI, four trading partners¹⁾
Core CPI, four trading partners¹⁾
1) Four trading partners: euro area, UK, Sweden and US.
Sources: Refinitiv Datastream and Norges Bank
Spot and futures prices for oil and gas
8
Oil. USD per barrel. Natural gas. USD per MMBtu
Sources: Refinitiv Datastream and Norges Bank
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Natural gas (l.h.s.)
Oil (r.h.s.)
Futures prices 17 August 2021 Futures prices MPR 2/21
Money market rates for trading partners
9
Three-month money market rates for Norway’s trading partners.
Percent. 2015 Q1 – 2024 Q4
Sources: Refinitiv Datastream and Norges Bank
-0.5 0 0.5 1
-0.5 0 0.5 1
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Forward rates MPR 2/21
Forward rates 17 August 2021
Policy rates in selected countries
10
Policy rates and estimated forward rates
1). Percent. January 2015 –
December 2024. 17 August 2021 (solid line) and MPR 2/21 (dashed line)
1) Overnight Index Swap (OIS) rates.
2) ECB deposit facility rate.
Sources: Bloomberg, Refinitiv Datastream and Norges Bank
-1 0 1 2 3
-1 0 1 2 3
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 US
UK
Euro area²⁾
Sweden
Long-term sovereign yields
11
Ten-year government bonds. Percent
Source: Bloomberg
-1 0 1 2
-1 0 1 2
Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21
US UK Germany Sweden Norway
MPR 2/21
Global equity markets
12
Index. 1 January 2020 = 100. 1 January 2020 – 17 August 2021
Sources: Bloomberg and Norges Bank
MPR 2/21
60 80 100 120 140
60 80 100 120 140
Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21
US Europe
UK China
Emerging economies
Import-weighted exchange rate index (I-44)
13
January 2019 – August 2021
1)1) Projections for 2021 Q2 – 2021 Q3.
Source: Norges Bank
100
110
120
130
140 100
110
120
130
140
Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 I-44 Projections MPR 2/21
MPR 2/21
Stronger krone
Three-month money market premium
Percentage points. Five-day moving average.
1 January 2015 – 31 December 2024
1)1) Projections for 2021 Q3 – 2024 Q4.
Sources: Refinitiv Datastream and Norges Bank
MPR 2/21
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Projections MPR 2/21
14
Banks’ residential mortgage rates
15
Nominal, floating interest rate. January 2019 – August 2021
1)1) Banks’ outstanding mortgage and deposit rates through July 2021. Policy rates and quoted rates up until 18 August 2021.
Sources: Finansportalen, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
-1 0 1 2 3 4
-1 0 1 2 3 4
Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21 Jul-21
Outstanding mortgages Deposits Quoted rates Policy rate
Credit growth
16
C2. Twelve-month change. Percent. January 2015 – June 2021
1)Non-financial enterprises mainland Norway Households
1) Projections for May 2021 – September 2021.
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
-2 0 2 4 6 8 10
-2 0 2 4 6 8 10
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 MPR 2/21
-2 0 2 4 6 8 10
-2 0 2 4 6 8 10
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 MPR 2/21
GDP mainland Norway
17
Monthly and three-month growth. Seasonally adjusted. Percent.
January 2020 – May 2021
1)1) Projections for May 2021 – September 2021.
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6
-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6
Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Monthly growth
Projections MPR 2/21 Rolling three-month growth
Expected output growth next quarter
18
Business cycle barometer for manufacturing and mining. Net values.
Seasonally adjusted. 2007 Q1 – 2021 Q2
Source: Statistics Norway
-70 -50 -30 -10 10 30 50 70
-70 -50 -30 -10 10 30 50 70
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021
Goods consumption
19
Seasonally adjusted volume index. January 2015 – June 2021
Source: Statistics Norway
120 125 130 135 140 145 150 155
120 125 130 135 140 145 150 155
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Consumer confidence (CCI)
20
Index. May 2007 – June 2021
Source: ForbrukerMeteret from Opinion
-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15
-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021
CCI Average
House prices
21
Twelve-month change. Percent. January 2015 – July 2021
1)1) Projections for June 2021 – September 2021.
Sources: Eiendomsverdi, Finn.no, Real Estate Norway and Norges Bank
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20
-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20
House prices Projections MPR 2/21
House prices in selected Norwegian cities
22
Twelve-month change. Percent. January 2015 – July 2021
-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30
-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Norway Oslo
Trondheim Bergen
Stavanger and vicinity Tromsø
Kristiansand
Sources: Eiendomsverdi, Real Estate Norway and Finn.no
Building permits issued for housing starts
1000 m
2. Seasonally adjusted. January 2010 – June 2021
150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500
150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Housing starts Trend
Source: Statistics Norway 23
Unemployment
24
Share of labour force. Seasonally adjusted. Percent.
January 2015 – July 2021
1)1) Projections for June 2021 – December 2021.
Sources: Norwegian Labour and Welfare Administration (NAV) and Norges Bank
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Projections MPR 2/21
Employment
Index. February 2018 = 100. Seasonally adjusted.
January 2018 – May 2021
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
98 99 100 101 102 103 104
98 99 100 101 102 103 104
2018 2019 2020 2021
Employment (Labour Force Survey) Number of employees
Employment (Quarterly national accounts) Projections MPR 2/21
25
CPI and indicators of underlying inflation
26
Twelve-month change. Percent. January 2015 – July 2021
1)1) Projections for June 2021 – September 2021.
2) The band shows the highest and lowest values for CPIM, CPIXE, 20% trimmed mean, weighted median, CPI-XV and CPI common.
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Indicators² CPI
CPI-ATE Median
Inflation target Projections MPR 2/21
CPI-ATE by supplier sector
27
Twelve-month change. Percent. January 2015 – July 2021
1)1) Projections for June 2021 – September 2021.
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Imported goods
Domestically produced goods and services
Projections MPR 2/21
