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EXECUTIVE BOARD MEETING

8 MAY 2019

(2)

Monetary Policy Report 1/19, overall picture

-1 0 1 2 3

-1 0 1 2 3

2013 2015 2017 2019 2021

2 0

1 2 3 4

0 1 2 3 4

2013 2015 2017 2019 2021

Output gap Policy rate

Inflation (CPI-ATE)

-3 -2 -1 0 1 2

-3 -2 -1 0 1 2

2013 2015 2017 2019 2021

Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

Exchange rate index (I-44)

85 90 95 100 105 110

85 90 95 100 105 110

2013 2015 2017 2019 2021

(3)

US and euro area GDP growth

GDP. Quarterly change. Percent. 2016 Q2 – 2019 Q1

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2

2016 2017 2018

US

Euro area

Source: Thomson Reuters 3

(4)

PMI for Norway’s trading partners

4

Manufacturing and services PMI. Twenty-five main trading partners.

Export weights. January 2010 – April 2019

Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

45 50 55 60

45 50 55 60

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Manufacturing PMI

Services PMI

(5)

Global equity markets

5

Index. 1 January 2016 = 100. 1 January 2016 – 6 May 2019

Sources: Bloomberg and Norges Bank

80 100 120 140 160 180

80 100 120 140 160 180

2016 2017 2018 2019

US China Europe UK Norway

MPR 1/19

(6)

Inflation for selected trading partners

6

Twelve-month change. Percent. January 2010 – March/April 2019

Core inflation Headline CPI

-1 0 1 2 3 4 5

-1 0 1 2 3 4 5

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 US

Euro area UK

Sweden

-1 0 1 2 3 4 5

-1 0 1 2 3 4 5

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 US

Euro area UK

Sweden

Source: Thomson Reuters

(7)

Policy rates

7

Policy rates and estimated forward rates

1)

. Percent. 6 May 2019 (solid line) and MPR 1/19 (broken line)

1) Forward rates are based on Overnight Index Swap (OIS) rates.

2) ECB deposit facility rate.

Sources: Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

-1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3

-1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

US

Euro area UK

Sweden

2)

(8)

Money market rates for Norway’s trading partners

8

Three-month money market rates for Norway’s trading partners.

Percent. 2012 Q1 – 2019 Q1

1)

1) Projections to 2022 Q4.

Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

0 0.5 1 1.5 2

0 0.5 1 1.5 2

2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

MPR 1/19 6 May 2019

(9)

Crude oil spot and futures prices

9

USD/barrel. January 2013 – December 2022

Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

2013 2015 2017 2019 2021

Spot price

Futures price 6 May 2019 Futures price MPR 1/19

(10)

Import-weighted exchange rate index (I-44)

10

2 January 2017 – 6 May 2019

Source: Norges Bank

96

100

104

108

112 96

100

104

108

112

Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19

I-44

Average, Q2

Projections MPR 1/19

StrongerNOK

MPR 1/19

(11)

Three-month money market premium

11

Percentage points. 1 January 2015 – 6 May 2019

Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

MPR 1/19

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Norwegian money market premium Projections MPR 1/19

(12)

GDP mainland Norway

12

Monthly and three-month growth. Seasonally adjusted. Percent.

February 2016 – February 2019

1)

1) Projections for 2019 Q1 – 2019 Q2.

Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

-1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5

-1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5

Feb-16 Aug-16 Feb-17 Aug-17 Feb-18 Aug-18 Feb-19 Monthly growth Three-month growth Quarterly projections MPR 1/19

(13)

Business tendency survey for manufacturing, mining and quarrying

13

Expected output growth. Seasonally adjusted diffusion index.

2000 Q1 – 2019 Q1

30 40 50 60 70

30 40 50 60 70

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Source: Statistics Norway

(14)

SAM 1) projections for GDP mainland Norway

14

Four-quarter change. Percent. 2014 Q1 – 2018 Q4

2)

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

GDP mainland Norway Projections MPR 1/19 SAM MPR 1/19

SAM 6 May 2019

1) System for Averaging short-term Models.

2) Projections to 2019 Q2.

Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

(15)

Private consumption

15

Private consumption for households and non-profit organisations.

Three-month growth. Seasonally adjusted. Percent. June 2016 – February 2019

1)

1) Growth in goods consumption in March is based on the Index of household goods consumption (VKI).

Sources: Statistics Norway

-2 -1 0 1 2

-2 -1 0 1 2

Jun 16 Dec 16 Jun 17 Dec 17 Jun 18 Dec 18

Total consumption Services consumption Goods consumption

Goods consumption in March

(16)

House prices

16

Percent. January 2015 – April 2019

Sources: Eiendomsverdi, Finn.no and Real Estate Norway

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

-10 -5 0 5 10 15

-2 -1 0 1 2 3

Seasonally adjusted monthly change (l.h.s.) Twelve-month change (r.h.s.)

(17)

Credit growth

0 2 4 6 8

0 2 4 6 8

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Twelve-month change Projections MPR 1/19

17

C2. Percent. January 2015 – March 2019

1)

Non-financial enterprises, mainland Norway

Households

1) Projections to June 2019.

Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

0 4 8 12

0 4 8 12

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Twelve-month change Projections MPR 1/19

(18)

Unemployment

18

As a percentage of the labour force. Seasonally adjusted.

January 2012 – February/April 2019

1)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Registered unemployment

Registered unemployed and labour market programme participants LFS unemployment

Projections MPR 1/19

1) Projections to April/June 2019.

Sources: Norwegian Labour and Welfare Administration (NAV), Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

(19)

Wage norm and annual wage growth

Annual change. Percent. 2003 – 2019

1)

1) Projection for 2019.

Sources: Confederation of Norwegian Enterprise (NHO), Norwegian Confederation of Trade Unions (LO), Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018

Annual wage growth MPR 1/19 Wage norm

19

(20)

Inflation

20

Twelve-month change. Percent. January 2012 – March 2019

1)

1) Projections to June 2019.

Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

0 1 2 3 4 5

0 1 2 3 4 5

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

CPI CPI-ATE

Projections MPR 1/19

(21)

CPI-ATE by supplier sector

21

Twelve-month change. Percent. January 2012 – March 2019

1)

1) Projections to June 2019.

Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Imported consumer goods

Domestically produced goods and services Projections MPR 1/19

(22)

SAM 1) forecast for CPI-ATE inflation

22

Four-quarter change. Percent. 2014 Q1 – 2019 Q1

2)

0 1 2 3 4

0 1 2 3 4

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

CPI-ATE

Projections MPR 1/19 SAM MPR 1/19

SAM 6 May 2019

1) System for Averaging short-term Models.

2) Projections to 2019 Q2/Q3.

Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

(23)

EXECUTIVE BOARD MEETING

8 MAY 2019

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