• No results found

CHARTS MONETARY POLICY MEETING 5 MAY 2021

N/A
N/A
Info
Nedlasting
Protected

Academic year: 2022

Share "CHARTS MONETARY POLICY MEETING 5 MAY 2021"

Copied!
28
0
0

Laster.... (Se fulltekst nå)

Last ned nå ( 28 sider )

Fulltekst

(1)

CHARTS

MONETARY POLICY MEETING 5 MAY 2021

(2)

Monetary Policy Report 1/21, overall picture

Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank 2

Output gap Policy rate

Inflation (CPI-ATE) Exchange rate index (I-44)

-1 0 1 2 3

-1 0 1 2 3

2015 2017 2019 2021 2023

-8 -6 -4 -2 0 2

-8 -6 -4 -2 0 2

2015 2017 2019 2021 2023

0 1 2 3 4 5

2015 2017 2019 2021 2023

0 1 2 3 4 5

90 100 110 120

90 100 110 120

2015 2017 2019 2021 2023

(3)

Change in the number of infected per day

3

Change in the number of registered infected per 100 000 population.

Seven-day moving average. 2 March 2020 – 4 May 2021

Sources: Refinitiv Datastream and Norges Bank

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Mar-20 May-20 Jul-20 Sep-20 Nov-20 Jan-21 Mar-21 May-21 US

Euro area UK

Sweden Norway

(4)

Vaccination coverage abroad

4

Share vaccinated with first dose.

Percent. 15 December 2020 – 4 May 2021

Source: Refinitiv Datastream

0 10 20 30 40 50

0 10 20 30 40 50

Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21

US Germany

UK Sweden

Norway France

Italy Denmark

Spain World

(5)

GDP forecast for trading partners 1)

5 1) Thirteen trading partners. Export weights.

Sources: Consensus Economics, IMF, OECD and Norges Bank

Level. Index. 2019 = 100. 2019 – 2024

94 96 98 100 102 104 106 108

94 96 98 100 102 104 106 108

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

MPR 1/21

Consensus forecast March Consensus forecast April IMF April 2021

(6)

PMI for trading partners

6

Diffusion index. January 2018 – April 2021

PMI services PMI manufacturing

10 20 30 40 50 60 70

10 20 30 40 50 60 70

2018 2019 2020 2021

US

Euro area UK

10 20 30 40 50 60 70

10 20 30 40 50 60 70

2018 2019 2020 2021

US

Euro area UK

Sources : Refinitiv Datastream and Norges Bank

(7)

Consumer prices

7

Twelve-month change. Percent. January 2010 – March 2021

-1 0 1 2 3 4

-1 0 1 2 3 4

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Headline CPI, four trading partners¹⁾

Core CPI, four trading partners¹⁾

1) Four trading partners: euro area, UK, Sweden and US Sources: Refinitiv Datastream and Norges Bank

(8)

Crude oil spot and futures prices

8

USD/barrel. January 2015 – December 2024

Sources: Refinitiv Datastream and Norges Bank

0 20 40 60 80 100

0 20 40 60 80 100

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Spot price

Futures price 4 May 2021 Futures price MPR 1/21

(9)

Policy rates in selected countries

9

Policy rates and estimated forward rates

1)

. Percent. January 2015 – December 2024. 4 May 2021 (solid line) and MPR 1/21 (dashed line)

1) Overnight Index Swap (OIS) rates.

2) ECB deposit facility rate.

Sources: Bloomberg, Refinitiv Datastream and Norges Bank

-1 0 1 2 3

-1 0 1 2 3

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 US

UK

Euro area²⁾

Sweden

(10)

Money market rates for trading partners

10

Three-month money market rates for Norway’s trading partners.

Percent. 2015 Q1 – 2024 Q4

Sources: Refinitiv Datastream and Norges Bank

-0,5 0 0,5 1

-0,5 0 0,5 1

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Forward rates MPR 1/21

Forward rates 4 May 2021

(11)

Long-term sovereign yields

Ten-year government bonds. Percent.

1 January 2020 – 4 May 2021

Sources: Bloomberg and Norges Bank

-1 0 1 2 3

-1 0 1 2 3

Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21

US Germany Sweden Norway UK

MPR 1/21

11

(12)

Global equity markets

12

Index. 1 January 2020 = 100. 1 January – 4 May 2021

60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140

60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140

Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21

US Europe UK China

Emerging economies

Sources: Bloomberg and Norges Bank

MPR 1/21

(13)

Three-month money market premium

13

Percentage points. 1 January 2015 – 31 December 2024

1)

0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1 1,2

0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1 1,2

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Norwegian money market premium

Projections MPR 1/21

1) Projections for 2021 Q1 – 2024 Q4.

Sources: Refinitiv Datastream and Norges Bank

MPR 1/21

(14)

Banks’ residential mortgage rates

14

Nominal, floating interest rate. January 2019 – May 2021

1)

1) Banks’ rates for outstanding mortgages and deposits through March 2021. Policy rates and offered rates up until 4 May 2021.

Sources: Finansportalen, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

-1 0 1 2 3 4

-1 0 1 2 3 4

Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Outstanding mortgages Deposits Quoted rates Policy rate

(15)

Import-weighted exchange rate index (I-44)

15

January 2020 – June 2021

1)

1) Projections for 2021 Q1 –2021 Q2.

Source: Norges Bank

100 105 110 115 120 125 130 135 140 100

105 110 115 120 125 130 135 140

Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21

I-44 Projections MPR 1/21

Stronger krone

MPR 1/21

(16)

Credit growth

16

C2. Twelve-month change. Percent. January 2015 – June 2021

1)

Non-financial enterprises mainland Norway Households

1) Projections for March 2021 – June 2021.

Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

-2 0 2 4 6 8 10

-2 0 2 4 6 8 10

2015 2017 2019

MPR 1/21

-2 0 2 4 6 8 10

-2 0 2 4 6 8 10

2015 2017 2019

MPR 1/21

(17)

GDP mainland Norway

17

Monthly and three-month growth. Seasonally adjusted. Percent.

January 2020 – June 2021

1)

1) Projections for February 2021 – June 2021.

Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6

-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6

Jan-20 Mar-20 May-20 Jul-20 Sep-20 Nov-20 Jan-21 Mar-21 May-21 Monthly growth

Projections MPR 1/21 Rolling three-month growth

(18)

Expected output growth next quarter

18

Business cycle barometer for manufacturing and mining. Net values.

Seasonally adjusted. 2007 Q1 – 2021 Q1

Source: Statistics Norway

-70 -50 -30 -10 10 30 50 70

-70 -50 -30 -10 10 30 50 70

2007 2010 2013 2016 2019

Total manufacturing and mining

(19)

Goods consumption

19

Seasonally adjusted volume index. January 2015 – March 2021

Source: Statistics Norway

120 125 130 135 140 145 150 155

120 125 130 135 140 145 150 155

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

(20)

Card transactions via BankAxept

20

Value of card transactions via BankAxept relative to 2019.

1) 2)

Percent.

January 2020 – April 2021

-70 -50 -30 -10 10 30

-70 -50 -30 -10 10 30

Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21

Services Goods

1) BankAxept includes only purchases at physical points of sale in Norway and some points of sale across the Swedish border.

2) Working-day adjusted.

Sources: BankAxept and Vipps AS

(21)

Consumer confidence (CCI)

21

Index. May 2007 – April 2021

Source: ForbrukerMeteret from Opinion

-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15

-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

CCI Average

(22)

House prices

22

Twelve-month change. Percent. January 2015 – June 2021

1)

1) Projections for March 2021 – July 2021.

Sources: Eiendomsverdi, Finn.no, Real Estate Norway and Norges Bank

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20

-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20

Twelve-month change Projections MPR 1/21

(23)

Building permits issued for housing starts

23

1000 m

2

. Seasonally adjusted. January 2010 – March 2021

Source: Statistics Norway

150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500

150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Housing starts Trend

(24)

Unemployment

24

Share of labour force. Percent. Seasonally adjusted.

January 2018 – June 2021

1)

1) Projections for March 2021 – June 2021.

Sources: Norwegian Labour and Welfare Administration (NAV) and Norges Bank

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

2018 2019 2020 2021

Registered unemployment MPR 1/21

(25)

Registered unemployment – ordinary and furloughs

25

In thousands. Week 40 2020 – Week 26 2021

1)

1) Projections for Week 14 - Week 26 2021. In some periods, no week numbers have been published, as in Week 14 2021. Periods with week numbers are chained together by linear interpolation.

Sources: Norwegian Labour and Welfare Administration (NAV) and Norges Bank

0 50 100 150 200

0 50 100 150 200

Sep-20 Dec-20 Mar-21 Jun-21

Total

Fully unemployed (furloughs) Fully unemployed (ordinary) Projections MPR 1/21

(26)

CPI and indicators of underlying inflation

26

Twelve-month change. Percent. January 2015 – June 2021

1)

1) Projections March 2021 to June 2021.

2) The band shows the highest and lowest values for CPIM, CPIXE, 20% trimmed mean, weighted median, CPI-XV and CPI common.

Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

0 1 2 3 4 5

0 1 2 3 4 5

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Indicator² CPI-ATE

CPI Projections CPI-ATE

Projections CPI

(27)

CPI-ATE by supplier sector

27

Twelve-month change. Percent. January 2014 – June 2021

1)

1) Projections March 2021 - June 2021.

Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

-1 0 1 2 3 4 5

-1 0 1 2 3 4 5

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Imported goods

Domestically produced goods and services

Projections MPR 1/21

(28)

CHARTS

MONETARY POLICY MEETING 5 MAY 2021

Referanser

Last ned nå ( PDF - 28 sider - 694.24 KB )

RELATERTE DOKUMENTER