CHARTS
MONETARY POLICY MEETING 22 JANUARY 2020
Monetary Policy Report 4/19, overall picture
-1 0 1 2 3
-1 0 1 2 3
2013 2015 2017 2019 2021
2 0
1 2 3 4
0 1 2 3 4
2013 2015 2017 2019 2021
Output gap Policy rate
Inflation (CPI-ATE)
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2
2013 2015 2017 2019 2021
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Exchange rate index (I-44)
85 90 95 100 105 110 115
85 90 95 100 105 110 115
2013 2015 2017 2019 2021
PMI for Norway’s trading partners
3
Manufacturing and services PMI. Twenty-five main trading partners.
Export weights. January 2010 – September 2019
45 50 55 60
45 50 55 60
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Services PMI
Manufacturing PMI
Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank
Inflation for selected trading partners
4
Twelve-month change. Percent. January 2010 – December 2019
Core inflation Headline CPI
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 US
Euro area UK
Sweden
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 US
Euro area UK
Sweden
Source: Thomson Reuters
Crude oil spot and futures prices
5
USD/barrel. January 2013 – December 2022
Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
2013 2015 2017 2019 2021
Spot price
Futures price 20 January 2020 Futures price MPR 4/19
Policy rates
6
Policy rate and estimated forward rates
1). Percent.
22 January 2020 (solid line) and MPR 3/19 (broken line)
1) Forward rates are based on Overnight Index Swap (OIS) rates.
2) ECB deposit facility rate.
Sources: Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank
-1 0 1 2 3
-1 0 1 2 3
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
US UK
Euro area²⁾
Sweden
Money market rates for Norway’s trading partners
7
Three-month money market rates for Norway’s trading partners.
Percent. 2012 Q1 – 2022 Q4
Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank
40969 41699 42430 43160 43891 44621
-0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5
-0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5
2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
Forward rates MPR 4/19
Forward rates 20 January 2020
Long-term sovereign yields
Ten-year government bonds. Percent.
1 January 2018 – 20 January 2020
Sources: Bloomberg and Norges Bank 8
-1 0 1 2 3 4
-1 0 1 2 3 4
Jan-18 Apr-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19
US Germany Sweden Norway UK
MPR 4/19
Global equity markets
9
Index. 1 January 2018 = 100. 1 January 2018 – 20 January 2020
Sources: Bloomberg and Norges Bank
70 90 110 130
70 90 110 130
Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 US
Europe UK
Emerging market economies China
MPR 4/19
Three-month money market premium
10
Percentage points. 1 January 2015 – 31 December 2022
1)0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Norwegian money market premium Projections MPR 4/19
1) Projections for 2019 Q4 – 2022 Q4.
Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank
MPR 4/19
Swap rates
11
Percent. 1 January 2018 – 20 January 2020
Sources: Bloomberg and Norges Bank
1 1.5 2 2.5
1 1.5 2 2.5
Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Ten-year swap rates Five-year swap rates
MPR 4/19
Banks’ mortgage rates
12
Nominal, floating interest rate.
February 2015 – November/January 2019
1)0 1 2 3 4
0 1 2 3 4
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Outstanding mortgages New mortgages Policy rate Deposits
1) Bank rates for outstanding and new mortgages and deposits through November 2019. Policy rates up until 13 January.
Sources: Finansportalen, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Import-weighted exchange rate index (I-44)
13
1 September 2018 – 20 January 2020
Source: Norges Bank
100 102 104 106 108 110 112 114 100
102 104 106 108 110 112 114
Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20 I-44
Average Q4
Projections MPR 4/19
Stronger NOK
MPR 4/19
NOK against other currencies
14
Percentage movement in the exchange rate.
13 September – 20 December 2019
Sources: Bloomberg and Norges Bank
-0.4 %
0.3 %
1.0 %
1.5 % 1.5 % 1.6 %
2.0 % 2.2 %
2.8 %
4.0 %
-1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5%
CHF CAD USD NZD I-44 JPY EUR AUD SEK GBP
Stronger NOK
GDP mainland Norway
15
Monthly and three-month growth. Seasonally adjusted. Percent.
January 2016 – March 2020
1)1) Projections for 2019 Q4 – 2020 Q1.
2) System for Averaging short-term Models, 20 January. Monthly GDP is not included in the model information set.
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
-0.8 -0.4 0 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 2
-0.8 -0.4 0 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 2
Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Monthly growth
Rolling three-month growth Projections MPR 4/19 SAM 20 January
Business tendency survey and PMI
16
Business tendency survey. Composite indicator. Net values.
PMI. Diffusion index. Seasonally adjusted.
February 2004 – December 2019
Sources: DNB Markets, Norwegian Association of Purchasing and Logistics (NIMA) and Statistics Norway
35 40 45 50 55 60 65
-25 -15 -5 5 15 25
2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019
Business tendency survey (l.h.s.) PMI (r.h.s.)
Private consumption
17
Private consumption for households and non-profit organisations.
Three-month growth. Seasonally adjusted. Percent.
June 2016 – November 2019
1) Includes goods and service consumption, Norwegians’ consumption abroad and consumption by non-profit organisations
Source: Statistics Norway
-2 -1 0 1 2
-2 -1 0 1 2
Jun-16 Dec-16 Jun-17 Dec-17 Jun-18 Dec-18 Jun-19 Total consumption¹⁾
Services consumption Goods consumption
Consumer confidence
18
Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) and Kantar TNS Consumer Sentiment Index. Net values. January 2008 – December 2018
Sources: ForbrukerMeteret from Opinion and TNS Kantar
-30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50
-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), Opinion (l.h.s.)
Consumer Sentiment Index, TNS Kantar (r.h.s.) Average 2007 Q2 - 2019 Q4
Petroleum investment
19
Annual change. Percent. 2010 – 2020
1)1) Projections for 2019 and 2020.
Sources: Norwegian Petroleum Directorate, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20
-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 MPR 4/19 Norwegian Petroleum Directorate
Unemployment
20
Share of labour force. Seasonally adjusted.
January 2012 – March 2020
1)0 1 2 3 4 5 6
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Registered unemployment Projections MPR 4/19
Registered unemployment and labour market programme participants LFS unemployment
1) LFS through October. Projections for January – March 2020.
Sources: Norwegian Labour and Welfare Administration (NAV), Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
House prices
21
Monthly and twelve-month change. Percent.
January 2015 – December 2019
Sources: Eiendomsverdi, Finn.no and Real Estate Norway
-10 -5 0 5 10 15
-2 -1 0 1 2 3
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Monthly change, seasonally adjusted (l.h.s) Twelve-month change (r.h.s.)
Credit growth
22
C2. Percent. January 2015 – March 2020
1)Non-financial enterprises, mainland Norway
Households
1) Projections for November 2019 – March 2020.
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
4 5 6 7 8
4 5 6 7 8
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Twelve-month change in C2 Projections MPR 4/19
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Twelve-month change in C2 Projections MPR 4/19
Inflation
23
Twelve-month change. Percent. January 2012 – March 2020
1)1) Projections for January – March 2020.
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 1 2 3 4 5
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
CPI CPI-ATE
Projections MPR 4/19
CPI-ATE by supplier sector
24
Twelve-month change. Percent. January 2012 – March 2020
1)1) Projections for January – March 2020.
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Imported consumer goods
Domestically produced goods and services Projections MPR 4/19
CPI and indicators of underlying inflation
25
Twelve-month change. Percent. January 2002 – December 2019
1) The band shows the highest and lowest values for CPIM, CPIXE, 20% trimmed mean, weighted median, CPI-XV and CPI common.
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
-2 0 2 4 6
-2 0 2 4 6
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Indicators¹⁾ CPI-ATE CPI
SAM 1) forecast for CPI-ATE inflation
26
Four-quarter change. Percent. 2014 Q1 – 2019 Q4
2)0 1 2 3 4
0 1 2 3 4
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
CPI-ATE
Projections MPR 4/19 SAM MPR 4/19
SAM 20 January 2020
1) System for Averaging short-term Models.
2) Projections for 2020 Q1.
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
CHARTS
MONETARY POLICY MEETING 22 JANUARY 2020