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CHARTS

MONETARY POLICY MEETING 22 JANUARY 2020

(2)

Monetary Policy Report 4/19, overall picture

-1 0 1 2 3

-1 0 1 2 3

2013 2015 2017 2019 2021

2 0

1 2 3 4

0 1 2 3 4

2013 2015 2017 2019 2021

Output gap Policy rate

Inflation (CPI-ATE)

-3 -2 -1 0 1 2

-3 -2 -1 0 1 2

2013 2015 2017 2019 2021

Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

Exchange rate index (I-44)

85 90 95 100 105 110 115

85 90 95 100 105 110 115

2013 2015 2017 2019 2021

(3)

PMI for Norway’s trading partners

3

Manufacturing and services PMI. Twenty-five main trading partners.

Export weights. January 2010 – September 2019

45 50 55 60

45 50 55 60

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Services PMI

Manufacturing PMI

Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

(4)

Inflation for selected trading partners

4

Twelve-month change. Percent. January 2010 – December 2019

Core inflation Headline CPI

-1 0 1 2 3 4 5

-1 0 1 2 3 4 5

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 US

Euro area UK

Sweden

-1 0 1 2 3 4 5

-1 0 1 2 3 4 5

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 US

Euro area UK

Sweden

Source: Thomson Reuters

(5)

Crude oil spot and futures prices

5

USD/barrel. January 2013 – December 2022

Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

2013 2015 2017 2019 2021

Spot price

Futures price 20 January 2020 Futures price MPR 4/19

(6)

Policy rates

6

Policy rate and estimated forward rates

1)

. Percent.

22 January 2020 (solid line) and MPR 3/19 (broken line)

1) Forward rates are based on Overnight Index Swap (OIS) rates.

2) ECB deposit facility rate.

Sources: Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

-1 0 1 2 3

-1 0 1 2 3

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

US UK

Euro area²⁾

Sweden

(7)

Money market rates for Norway’s trading partners

7

Three-month money market rates for Norway’s trading partners.

Percent. 2012 Q1 – 2022 Q4

Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

40969 41699 42430 43160 43891 44621

-0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5

-0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5

2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

Forward rates MPR 4/19

Forward rates 20 January 2020

(8)

Long-term sovereign yields

Ten-year government bonds. Percent.

1 January 2018 – 20 January 2020

Sources: Bloomberg and Norges Bank 8

-1 0 1 2 3 4

-1 0 1 2 3 4

Jan-18 Apr-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19

US Germany Sweden Norway UK

MPR 4/19

(9)

Global equity markets

9

Index. 1 January 2018 = 100. 1 January 2018 – 20 January 2020

Sources: Bloomberg and Norges Bank

70 90 110 130

70 90 110 130

Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 US

Europe UK

Emerging market economies China

MPR 4/19

(10)

Three-month money market premium

10

Percentage points. 1 January 2015 – 31 December 2022

1)

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Norwegian money market premium Projections MPR 4/19

1) Projections for 2019 Q4 – 2022 Q4.

Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

MPR 4/19

(11)

Swap rates

11

Percent. 1 January 2018 – 20 January 2020

Sources: Bloomberg and Norges Bank

1 1.5 2 2.5

1 1.5 2 2.5

Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Ten-year swap rates Five-year swap rates

MPR 4/19

(12)

Banks’ mortgage rates

12

Nominal, floating interest rate.

February 2015 – November/January 2019

1)

0 1 2 3 4

0 1 2 3 4

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Outstanding mortgages New mortgages Policy rate Deposits

1) Bank rates for outstanding and new mortgages and deposits through November 2019. Policy rates up until 13 January.

Sources: Finansportalen, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

(13)

Import-weighted exchange rate index (I-44)

13

1 September 2018 – 20 January 2020

Source: Norges Bank

100 102 104 106 108 110 112 114 100

102 104 106 108 110 112 114

Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20 I-44

Average Q4

Projections MPR 4/19

Stronger NOK

MPR 4/19

(14)

NOK against other currencies

14

Percentage movement in the exchange rate.

13 September – 20 December 2019

Sources: Bloomberg and Norges Bank

-0.4 %

0.3 %

1.0 %

1.5 % 1.5 % 1.6 %

2.0 % 2.2 %

2.8 %

4.0 %

-1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5%

CHF CAD USD NZD I-44 JPY EUR AUD SEK GBP

Stronger NOK

(15)

GDP mainland Norway

15

Monthly and three-month growth. Seasonally adjusted. Percent.

January 2016 – March 2020

1)

1) Projections for 2019 Q4 – 2020 Q1.

2) System for Averaging short-term Models, 20 January. Monthly GDP is not included in the model information set.

Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

-0.8 -0.4 0 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 2

-0.8 -0.4 0 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 2

Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Monthly growth

Rolling three-month growth Projections MPR 4/19 SAM 20 January

(16)

Business tendency survey and PMI

16

Business tendency survey. Composite indicator. Net values.

PMI. Diffusion index. Seasonally adjusted.

February 2004 – December 2019

Sources: DNB Markets, Norwegian Association of Purchasing and Logistics (NIMA) and Statistics Norway

35 40 45 50 55 60 65

-25 -15 -5 5 15 25

2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019

Business tendency survey (l.h.s.) PMI (r.h.s.)

(17)

Private consumption

17

Private consumption for households and non-profit organisations.

Three-month growth. Seasonally adjusted. Percent.

June 2016 – November 2019

1) Includes goods and service consumption, Norwegians’ consumption abroad and consumption by non-profit organisations

Source: Statistics Norway

-2 -1 0 1 2

-2 -1 0 1 2

Jun-16 Dec-16 Jun-17 Dec-17 Jun-18 Dec-18 Jun-19 Total consumption¹⁾

Services consumption Goods consumption

(18)

Consumer confidence

18

Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) and Kantar TNS Consumer Sentiment Index. Net values. January 2008 – December 2018

Sources: ForbrukerMeteret from Opinion and TNS Kantar

-30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50

-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), Opinion (l.h.s.)

Consumer Sentiment Index, TNS Kantar (r.h.s.) Average 2007 Q2 - 2019 Q4

(19)

Petroleum investment

19

Annual change. Percent. 2010 – 2020

1)

1) Projections for 2019 and 2020.

Sources: Norwegian Petroleum Directorate, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20

-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 MPR 4/19 Norwegian Petroleum Directorate

(20)

Unemployment

20

Share of labour force. Seasonally adjusted.

January 2012 – March 2020

1)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Registered unemployment Projections MPR 4/19

Registered unemployment and labour market programme participants LFS unemployment

1) LFS through October. Projections for January – March 2020.

Sources: Norwegian Labour and Welfare Administration (NAV), Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

(21)

House prices

21

Monthly and twelve-month change. Percent.

January 2015 – December 2019

Sources: Eiendomsverdi, Finn.no and Real Estate Norway

-10 -5 0 5 10 15

-2 -1 0 1 2 3

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Monthly change, seasonally adjusted (l.h.s) Twelve-month change (r.h.s.)

(22)

Credit growth

22

C2. Percent. January 2015 – March 2020

1)

Non-financial enterprises, mainland Norway

Households

1) Projections for November 2019 – March 2020.

Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

4 5 6 7 8

4 5 6 7 8

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Twelve-month change in C2 Projections MPR 4/19

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Twelve-month change in C2 Projections MPR 4/19

(23)

Inflation

23

Twelve-month change. Percent. January 2012 – March 2020

1)

1) Projections for January – March 2020.

Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

0 1 2 3 4 5

0 1 2 3 4 5

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

CPI CPI-ATE

Projections MPR 4/19

(24)

CPI-ATE by supplier sector

24

Twelve-month change. Percent. January 2012 – March 2020

1)

1) Projections for January – March 2020.

Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Imported consumer goods

Domestically produced goods and services Projections MPR 4/19

(25)

CPI and indicators of underlying inflation

25

Twelve-month change. Percent. January 2002 – December 2019

1) The band shows the highest and lowest values for CPIM, CPIXE, 20% trimmed mean, weighted median, CPI-XV and CPI common.

Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

-2 0 2 4 6

-2 0 2 4 6

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Indicators¹⁾ CPI-ATE CPI

(26)

SAM 1) forecast for CPI-ATE inflation

26

Four-quarter change. Percent. 2014 Q1 – 2019 Q4

2)

0 1 2 3 4

0 1 2 3 4

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

CPI-ATE

Projections MPR 4/19 SAM MPR 4/19

SAM 20 January 2020

1) System for Averaging short-term Models.

2) Projections for 2020 Q1.

Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

(27)

CHARTS

MONETARY POLICY MEETING 22 JANUARY 2020

Referanser

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