Executive Board Meeting
21 September 2011
Global economic growth
GDP growth. Four-quarter change. 2000 Q1 – 2011 Q2
-10 -5 0 5 10 15
-10 -5 0 5 10 15
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
US
Euro area
Emerging economies¹⁾
Emerging Asian economies¹⁾
Sources: IMF, Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank 1) GDP-weighted (PPP)
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Asia
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
-25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15
-25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15
Central and Eastern Europe
Sources: IMF, Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank
Emerging markets
Per cent. 2000 Q1 – 2011 Q2
GDP growth
Four-quarter change Industrial production
12-month change. 3-month average.
Retail
12-month change in volume.
3-month average.
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15
-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15
Latin-America
Industrial production in the US and euro area
20 30 40 50 60 70
20 30 40 50 60 70
2005 2007 2009 2011
ISM manufacturing US
PMI manufacturing euro area
Source: Thomson Reuters
ISM and PMI
Diffusion index. January 2005 – August 2011
80 90 100 110 120
80 90 100 110 120
2005 2007 2009 2011
US
Euro area
Industrial production
Index. 2005 = 100. Seasonally adjusted January 2005 – August 2011
1)1) Euro area to July 2011
GDP growth projections for the US
Per cent. March 2011 – September 2011
2011 2012
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4
Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
JP Morgan
Consensus Forecasts Morgan Stanley
IMF (WEO)
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4
Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
JP Morgan
Consensus Forecasts Morgan Stanley
IMF (WEO)
Sources: IMF, Consensus Economics, J.P. Morgan and Morgan Stanley
Unemployment
As a percentage of the labour force. Seasonally adjusted.
January 2007 – July 2011
1)0 5 10 15 20 25
0 5 10 15 20 25
Jan-07 Jul-08 Jan-10 Jul-11
US
0 5 10 15 20 25
0 5 10 15 20 25
Jan-07 Jul-08 Jan-10 Jul-11
Spain Germany Euro area Greece Italy
1) Figures to August 2011 for US and to March 2011 for Greece Source: Thomson Reuters
Commodity prices
Index. 1 January 2003 = 100
1 January 2003 – 19 September 2011
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
2003 2007 2011
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
2003 2007 2011
Aluminium Copper Wheat Cotton
Source: Thomson Reuters
Oil price (Brent Blend)
USD/barrel
1 January 2003 – 19 September 2011
Implied volatility in equity markets
Sources: Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank
Developments in financial markets
1 January 2007 – 19 September 2011
Money market premium
3-month maturity. 5-day moving average. Percentage points.
Equities
Index. January 2007 = 100.Yield spread over German 10-year government bonds Percentage points.
0 5 10 15 20 25
0 5 10 15 20 25
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Portugal Spain Ireland Greece Italy Belgium
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 1 2 3 4 5
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
USD (LIBOR) EURIBOR NIBOR
40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120
40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
US Norway Europe
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
USA (VIX)
Europa (VSTOXX)
US Average 1990-2011 Europe
Average 1999-2011
Yield on 10-year government bonds
Per cent. 3 January 2007 – 19 September 2011
Source: Bloomberg
1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6
1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6
Jan-07 Oct-07 Jul-08 Apr-09 Jan-10 Oct-10 Jul-11
US Germany UK Norway
CDS prices in Europe
Basis points. 1 January 2007 – 19 September 2011
0 100 200 300 400
0 100 200 300 400
jan. 07 jan. 08 jan. 09 jan. 10 jan. 11
Itraxx sovereign Itraxx corporate Itraxx financial
Source: Bloomberg
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11
Credit risk premium on bank bonds (5-year bonds)
NIBOR (3-month effective)
Key policy rate
Sources: DnB NOR Markets and Norges Bank
Banks’ funding costs - enterprises
Funding costs for Norwegian banks. Per cent.
3 January 2007 – 19 September 2011
Key policy rate, money market rate 1) and weighted bank lending rates 2)
Per cent. 1 July 2007 – 19 September 2011
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11
Bank lending rate (new residential mortgages)
Money market rate Key policy rate
5-yr spread, covered bonds (3-month fixed rate)
Sources: Norsk familieøkonomi AS, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank.
1) 3-month NIBOR(effective)
2) Average interest rates on new mortgage loans of NOK 1m, floating rate, within 60% of purchase price. Figure for the 20 largest banks, weighted by market shares.
Expected key rates 1)
Per cent. July 2008 – December 2014
2)0 1 2 3 4 5 6
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11 Jul-12 Jul-13 Jul-14
US
Euro area³⁾
UK
MPR 2/11
19 September 2011
Sources: Bloomberg and Norges Bank 1) Expected interest rates are based on Overnight Indexed Swap (OIS) rates
2) Daily figures from 1 July 2008 and quarterly figures as at 20 September 2011 3) EONIA in euro area
Import-weighted exchange rate (1-44) 1)
Daily (historical) and quarterly figures (projected)
2). January 2010 – June 2012
84
86
88
90
92
94 84
86
88
90
92
94
Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12
I-44
Average Q3-to-date MPR 2/11
Source: Norges Bank 1) A rising curve denotes a stronger krone exchange rate
2) Projections 2011 Q3 – 2012 Q2 from MPR 2/11
Exchange rate, Euro (EURNOK)
05 September 2011 – 19 September 2011
7.45 7.5 7.55 7.6 7.65 7.7 7.75 7.8
7.45 7.5 7.55 7.6 7.65 7.7 7.75 7.8
05 -Sep 06 - Sep 08 - Sep 12 - Sep 14 - Sep 16 - Sep 19 -Sep
Source: Thomson Reuters
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0
Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12
SAM 9 September MPR 2/11
SAM in MPR 2/11
1) System for averaging short-term models
2) Projections for 2011 Q3 – 2012 Q2 (dashed lines) Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
GDP mainland Norway
Baseline scenario and projections from SAM
1)with fan chart from MPR 2/11 and
SAM 9 September 2011. Four-quarter change. Per cent. Q1 2010 – Q1 2012
2)Index of household consumption of goods
Volume. Index. Seasonally
adjusted. January 2007 – July 2011.
140 145 150 155 160 165
140 145 150 155 160 165
Jan-07 Jul-08 Jan-10 Jul-11
Sources: Statistics Norway and TNS Gallup
Households
TNS Gallup trend indicator for households
Net figures. Seasonally adjusted.
1992 Q3 – 2011 Q3
-30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40
-30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40
1992 1997 2002 2007
Registered unemployment
As a percentage of the labour force.
Seasonally adjusted. January 2007 – August 2011
Employment (LFS)
In 1000s. Seasonally adjusted.
January 2007 – June 2011
Source: Norwegian Labour and Welfare Administration (NAV), Statistics Norway
1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5
1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5
Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11
2350 2400 2450 2500 2550
2350 2400 2450 2500 2550
Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11
Labour market
Credit growth and property prices
12-month change. Per cent. January 2002 – August 2011 Households
-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25
-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25
2002 2005 2008 2011
Credit growth¹ ⁾ House prices²⁾
Non-financial corporations
-30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50
-30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50
2002 2005 2008 2011
Credit growth¹⁾
Selling prices commercial real estate³⁾
1) Households; C2, Enterprises; C3 Mainland Norway 2) House prices to August, C2 to July
3) Semi-annual figures to 2011 Q1. C3 to June
Sources: Statistics Norway, OPAK, real estate sector
(NEF, EFF, FINN.no and ECON Pöyry), OBOS and Norges Bank
Consumer prices
12-month change. Per cent. January 2008 – March 2012
1)0 1 2 3 4 5 6
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
CPI
CPI-ATE ²⁾
CPIXE ³⁾
1) Projections (dashed lines) from MPR 2/11
2) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products
3) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding temporary changes in energy prices.
Real-time figures. See Norges Bank Staff Memo 7/8 and 3/2009 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
