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CHARTS MONETARY POLICY MEETING 19 AUGUST 2020

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CHARTS

MONETARY POLICY MEETING 19 AUGUST 2020

(2)

Monetary Policy Report 2/20, overall picture

Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank 2

Output gap Policy rate

Inflation (CPI-ATE) Exchange rate index (I-44)

-1 0 1 2 3

-1 0 1 2 3

2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

-6 -4 -2 0 2

-6 -4 -2 0 2

2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

0 1 2 3 4

0 1 2 3 4

2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

85 95 105 115 125

85 95 105 115 125

2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

(3)

GDP growth for selected trading partners

3

Quarterly growth. 2020 Q2. Percent

Source: Refinitiv Datastream

-9,5

-12,1

-20,4

-8,6

11,5

-25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15

-25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15

USA Euro area UK Sweden China

(4)

PMI for manufacturing and services

4

Diffusion index. January 2018 – July 2020

PMI services PMI manufacturing

Source: Refinitiv Datastream

10 20 30 40 50 60 70

10 20 30 40 50 60 70

2018 2019 2020

US

Euro area UK

10 20 30 40 50 60 70

10 20 30 40 50 60 70

2018 2019 2020

US

Euro area UK

(5)

Change in the number of infected per day

Per million population. Seven-day moving average.

1 January 2020 – 18 August 2020

Source: Refinitiv Datastream

0 50 100 150 200 250

0 50 100 150 200 250

Jan-20 Mar-20 May-20 Jul-20

US EU Norway

Rest of the world

(6)

GDP forecast for selected trading partners 1)

6 1) US, Euro area, China, UK and Sweden. Export weights.

Sources: Consensus Economics, IMF and Norges Bank

90 95 100 105 110

90 95 100 105 110

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

MPR 2/20

IMF June (baseline)

Consensus Economics July

Level. Index. 2019 = 100. 2019 – 2023

(7)

Crude oil spot and futures prices

7

USD/barrel. January 2010 – December 2023

Source: Refinitiv Datastream

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

Spot price

Futures price 18 August 2020 Futures price MPR 2/20

(8)

Policy rates

8

Policy rate and estimated forward rates

1)

. Percent.

18 August 2020 (solid line) and MPR 2/20 (broken line)

1) Forward rates are based on Overnight Index Swap (OIS) rates.

2) ECB deposit facility rate.

Sources: Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

-1 0 1 2 3

-1 0 1 2 3

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

US UK

Euro area²⁾

Sweden

(9)

Money market rates for Norway’s trading partners

9

Three-month money market rates for Norway’s trading partners.

Percent. 2012 Q1 – 2022 Q4

Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

40969 41030 41091 41153 41214 41275 41334 41395 41456 41518 41579 41640 41699 41760 41821 41883 41944 42005 42064 42125 42186 42248 42309 42370 42430 42491 42552 42614 42675 42736 42795 42856 42917 42979 43040 43101 43160 43221 43282 43344 43405 43466 43525 43586 43647 43709 43770 43831 43891 43952 44013 44075 44136 44197 44256 44317 44378 44440 44501 44562 44621 44682 44743 44805 44866

-0,5 0 0,5 1 1,5

-0,5 0 0,5 1 1,5

2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

Forward rates MPR 2/20

Forward rates 18 August 2020

(10)

Long-term sovereign yields

Ten-year government bonds. Percent.

1 January 2018 – 18 August 2020

Sources: Bloomberg and Norges Bank

-1 0 1 2 3 4

-1 0 1 2 3 4

1-Jan 21-Apr 9-Aug 27-Nov 17-Mar 5-Jul 23-Oct 10-Feb 30-May

US Germany Sweden Norway UK

MPR 2/20

10

(11)

Global equity markets

11

Index. 1 Januar 2018 = 100. 1 January 2018 – 18 August 2020

Sources: Bloomberg and Norges Bank

60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130

60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130

Aug-18 Nov-18 Feb-19 May-19 Aug-19 Nov-19 Feb-20 May-20 Aug-20 US

Europe UK

Emerging economies China

MPR 2/20

(12)

Three-month money market premium

12

Percentage points. 1 January 2015 – 31 December 2022

1)

0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1 1,2

0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1 1,2

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Projections MPR 2/20

Norwegian money market premium

1) Projections for 2020 Q1– 2022 Q4.

Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

MPR 2/20

(13)

Banks’ residential mortgage rates

13

Nominal, floating interest rate. July 2018 – July 2020

1)

1) Banks’ rates for outstanding mortgages and deposits through May 2020. Policy rates and offered rates up until 31 July.

Sources: Finansportalen, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

0 1 2 3 4

0 1 2 3 4

Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20

Outstanding mortgages Policy rate

Deposits Offered rates

(14)

Import-weighted exchange rate index (I-44)

14

1 September 2018 – 18 August 2020

Source: Norges Bank

100 105 110 115 120 125 130 135 140 100

105 110 115 120 125 130 135 140

Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20 I-44

Projections Q3 MPR 2/20 Average Q3

Stronger NOK

MPR 2/20

(15)

NOK against other currencies

15

Percentage movement in the exchange rate.

MPR 2/20 – 18 August 2020

Sources: Bloomberg and Norges Bank

1,0 %

2,8 % 3,1 %

3,2 % 3,3 %

4,6 %

5,4 %

6,2 % 6,5 %

8,3 %

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%

SEK EUR GBP AUD CHF I-44 CAD NZD JPY USD

Stronger NOK

(16)

GDP mainland Norway

16

Monthly and three-month growth. Seasonally adjusted. Percent.

January 2019 – September 2020

1)

1) Projections as at June 2020.

Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

-8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4

-8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4

Jan-19 May-19 Sep-19 Jan-20 May-20 Sep-20

Monthly growth MPR 2/20

(17)

Business tendency survey and PMI

17

Business tendency survey. Composite indicator. Net values. PMI.

Diffusion index. Seasonally adjusted. January 2008 – July 2019

Sources: DNB Markets, Norwegian Association of Purchasing and Logistics (NIMA) and Statistics Norway

35 40 45 50 55 60 65

-25 -15 -5 5 15 25

2008 2011 2014 2017 2020

Business tendency survey (l.h.s.) PMI (r.h.s.)

(18)

Goods consumption

18

Seasonally adjusted volume index. January 2015 – June 2020

Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

120 125 130 135 140 145

120 125 130 135 140 145

Jan-15 Sep-15 May-16 Jan-17 Sep-17 May-18 Jan-19 Sep-19 May-20

(19)

Consumer confidence

19

Consumer Confidence Index (CCI). May 2007 – June 2020

Source: ForbrukerMeteret from Opinion

-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15

-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

CCI Average

(20)

Card transactions via BankAxept

20

Value of card transactions via BankAxept in 2020 relative to 2019.

1)

January – August.

2)

Percent

1) BankAxept includes only purchases at physical points of sale in Norway and some points of sale across the Swedish border. Data may therefore exaggerate growth in total consumption since more persons than usual have holidayed in Norway.

2) Data to 17 August.

Sources: BankAxept and Vipps AS

-70 -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30

-70 -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30

January February March April May June July August

Services Goods

(21)

House prices

21

Twelve-month change. Percent. January 2014 – September 2020¹ ⁾

1) Projections for June – September 2020.

Sources: Eiendomsverdi, Finn.no, NEF, Real Estate Norway, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20

-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Projections MPR 2/20

(22)

Credit growth

22

C2. Twelve-month change. Percent. January 2014 – September 2020

1)

Non-financial enterprises mainland Norway Households

1) Projections for May – September 2020.

Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

2 4 6 8

2 4 6 8

2014 2016 2018 2020

Projections MPR 2/20

0 2 4 6 8 10

0 2 4 6 8 10

2014 2016 2018 2020

Projections MPR 2/20

(23)

Unemployment

23

Share of labour force. Percent. January 2014 – September 2020

1)

1) Projections to September 2020.

Sources: Norwegian Labour and Welfare Administration (NAV), Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Projections MPR 2/20

(24)

Employment and hours worked in LFS

24

In thousands. Population aged 15-74. Seasonally adjusted.

January 2007 – June 2020

Source: Statistics Norway

1500 2000 2500 3000

1500 2000 2500 3000

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Employed Employed in work Person-weeks worked (37.5 hours)

(25)

Employment

25

Four-quarter growth. Percent. 2017 Q1 – 2020 Q2

Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3

-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3

2017 2018 2019 2020

Employment QNA Projections MPR 2/20

Employment according to Jobs and earnings statistics LFS employment

(26)

Inflation

26

Twelve-month change. Percent. January 2014 – July 2020

1)

1) Projections to September 2020.

Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

0 1 2 3 4 5

0 1 2 3 4 5

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

CPI CPI-ATE

Projections MPR 2/20

(27)

CPI-ATE by supplier sector

27

Twelve-month change. Percent. January 2014 – July 2020

1)

1) Projections to September 2020.

Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Domestically produced goods and services Imported consumer goods

Projections MPR 2/20

(28)

CPI and indicators of underlying inflation

28

Twelve-month change. Percent. January 2014 – July 2020

1) The band shows the highest and lowest values for CPIM, CPIXE, 20% trimmed mean, weighted median, CPI-XV and CPI common.

Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

-2 0 2 4 6

-2 0 2 4 6

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Indicators¹⁾ CPI CPI-ATE

(29)

SAM 1) forecast for CPI-ATE inflation

29

Four quarter change. Percent. 2014 Q1 – 2020 Q4

0 1 2 3 4 5

0 1 2 3 4 5

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

SAM MPR 2/20 SAM 10 August

1) System for Averaging short-term Models.

Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

(30)

CHARTS

MONETARY POLICY MEETING 19 AUGUST 2020

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