CHARTS
MONETARY POLICY MEETING 4 MAY 2022
Monetary Policy Report 1/22, overall picture
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank 2
Output gap Policy rate
Inflation (CPI) Inflation (CPI-ATE)
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 1 2 3 4 5
2016 2019 2022 2025
-9 -6 -3 0 3
-9 -6 -3 0 3
2016 2019 2022 2025
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 1 2 3 4 5
2016 2019 2022 2025
-1 0 1 2 3
-1 0 1 2 3
2016 2019 2022 2025
Oil and gas spot and futures prices
3
USD per barrel
January 2016 – December 2025
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Natural gas
Oil
Futures prices 3 May 2022 Futures prices MPR 1/22
Sources: Refinitiv Datastream and Norges Bank
Coal spot and futures prices
4
EUR per tonne. January 2016 - December 2025
Sources: Refinitiv Datastream and Norges Bank
0 100 200 300 400 500
0 100 200 300 400 500
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Spot Price
Futures prices 3 May 2022 Futures prices MPR 1/22
Electricity spot and futures prices
5
Øre per kWh. January 2010 – December 2025
0 40 80 120 160 200 240 280 320
0 40 80 120 160 200 240 280 320
2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025
Norway Germany
Forward prices 3 May 2022 Forward prices MPR 1/22
Sources: Refinitiv Datastream and Norges Bank
Trading partner consumer prices
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 US
Euro area UK
Sweden
Twelve-month change. Percent. January 2018 – April 2022
1)Headline CPI Core CPI
1) Data for the period to April for the euro area and to March for the remainder.
Source: Refinitiv Datastream
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 US
Euro area UK
Sweden
6
GDP forecast for trading partners 1)
1) 13 trading partners. Export weights. 7
Sources: Consensus Economics, IMF and Norges Bank
GDP growth. Percent. 2022 – 2025
0 1 2 3 4
0 1 2 3 4
2022 2023 2024 2025
MPR 1/22 IMF April
Consensus forecast April 2022 Consensus forecast March 2022
PMI for trading partners
8
Diffusion index. January 2018 – April 2022
PMI services PMI manufacturing
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 US
Euro area UK
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 US
Euro area UK
Source: Refinitiv Datastream
Number of infected in selected Asian countries
0 25 50 75 100 125
0 200 400 600 800 1000
Jan- 22
Feb- 22
Mar- 22
Apr- 22
May- 22 Singapore (l.h.s.)
South Korea (l.h.s) Thailand
Japan
0 0,05 0,1 0,15 0,2 0,25 0,3
0 0,05 0,1 0,15 0,2 0,25 0,3
Jan- 22
Feb- 22
Mar- 22
Apr- 22
May- 22 China
9
New cases per 100 000 inhabitants. Seven-day moving average
Sources: Refinitiv Datastream and Norges Bank
Hospitalisations
10
Number of Covid patients in hospital per 100 000 inhabitants.
22 January 2020 –3 May 2022
1)0 20 40 60 80
0 20 40 60 80
Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Apr-22
Denmark France Norway UK US
1) Latest observation for Norway is 22 March, 29 April for the UK and 1 May for the US.
Sources: Ourworldindata.org and Norges Bank
Forward rates
Forward three-month rates for trading partners. Percent. 2022 Q3 – 2025 Q4
Sources: Bloomberg and Norges Bank
0 0,5 1 1,5 2 2,5 3
0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1 1,2 1,4
Sep-22 Dec-22 Mar-23 Jun-23 Sep-23 Dec-23 Mar-24 Jun-24 Sep-24 Dec-24 Mar-25 Jun-25 Sep-25 Dec-25
Change from MPR 1/22 (l.h.s) Forward rates 3 May 2022 Forward rates MPR 1/22
11
Policy rates in selected countries
12
Policy rates and expected forward rates
1). Percent. January 2016 – December 2025. 3 May (solid line) and MPR 1/22 (dashed line)
1) Overnight Index Swap (OIS) rates.
2) ECB deposit facility rate.
Sources: Bloomberg, Refinitiv Datastream and Norges Bank
-1 0 1 2 3
-1 0 1 2 3
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
US
Euro area²⁾
UK Sweden
Long-term sovereign yields
13
Ten-year government bonds. Percent. 1 January 2020 – 3 May 2022
-1 -0,5 0 0,5 1 1,5 2 2,5 3 3,5
-1 -0,5 0 0,5 1 1,5 2 2,5 3 3,5
Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-22
US UK Germany Sweden Norway
Source: Bloomberg
MPR 1/22
Global equity markets
14
Index. 1 January 2020 = 100. 1 January 2020 – 3 May 2022
Sources: Bloomberg and Norges Bank
60 80 100 120 140 160
60 80 100 120 140 160
Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-22
US
Euro area UK
China
Emerging economies Norway
MPR 1/22
Import-weighted exchange rate index (I-44)
Import-weighted exchange rate index (I-44).
1 January 2020 – 30 June 2022
1)2020 2021 2022
100
110
120
130
140 100
110
120
130
140
I-44
Projections MPR 1/22 MPR 1/22
Stronger krone
1) Projections for 2022 Q2.
Source: Norges Bank 15
Three-month money market premium
Percentage points. Five-day moving average.
1 January 2016 – 31 December 2025
1)1) Projections for 2022 Q2 – 2025 Q4.
Sources: Refinitiv Datastream and Norges Bank
0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1 1,2
0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1 1,2
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Projections MPR 1/22 MPR 1/22
16
Banks’ residential mortgage rates
17
Nominal floating interest rate. January 2019 – April 2022
1)1) Latest observations for banks’ outstanding mortgage and deposit rates are from February 2022.
Latest observations for the policy rate and quoted rates are from 30 April 2022.
Sources: Finansportalen, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
-1 0 1 2 3 4
-1 0 1 2 3 4
Jan-19 May-19 Sep-19 Jan-20 May-20 Sep-20 Jan-21 May-21 Sep-21 Jan-22 Outstanding mortgages Deposits Quoted rates Policy rate
Credit growth
18
C2. Twelve-month change. Percent. January 2016 – June 2022
1)Non-financial enterprises mainland Norway Households
1) Projections for April – June 2022.
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
-2 0 2 4 6 8 10
-2 0 2 4 6 8 10
2016 2018 2020 2022
-2 0 2 4 6 8 10
-2 0 2 4 6 8 10
2016 2018 2020 2022
MPR 1/22
Mainland GDP
19
GDP for mainland Norway. Monthly growth. Contribution to monthly growth. Seasonally adjusted. Percentage points.
January 2020 – February 2022
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
-8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4
-8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4
Jan-20 May-20 Sep-20 Jan-21 May-21 Sep-21 Jan-22 Indirect taxes
Public sector Private services Other industries
Manufacturing and extraction services GDP
Projections MPR 1/22
Goods and services consumption
20
Constant prices. In billions of NOK. January 2019 – February 2022
Source: Statistics Norway
45 50 55 60 65 70
45 50 55 60 65 70
Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-22
Services consumption Goods consumption
Consumer confidence (CCI)
Index. May 2007 – April 2022
Source: ForbrukerMeteret from Opinion
-25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15
-25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021
CCI Average
21
Share of firms reporting supply-side constraints on production
22
Percent. 1990 Q1 – 2022 Q1
Source: Statistics Norway’s business tendency survey for manufacturing, mining and quarrying
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Housing starts
In thousands of units. January 2000 – March 2022
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2021
2020 2019
Average (2000-2019) 2022
23
House prices
24
Percent. January 2016 – June 2022
1)1) Projections March – June 2022
Sources: Eiendomsverdi, Finn.no, Real Estate Norway and Norges Bank
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
-20 -10 0 10 20 30
-2 -1 0 1 2 3
Seasonally adjusted monthly change (l.h.s.)
Seasonally adjusted monthly change, projections MPR 1/22 (r.h.s.) Twelve-month change (r.h.s.)
Twelve-month change, projections MPR 1/22 (r.h.s.)
Unemployment
25
Share of labour force. Seasonally adjusted. Percent.
January 2016 – December 2022
1)1) Projections for March – December 2022.
Sources: Norwegian Labour and Welfare Administration (NAV) and Norges Bank
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Registered unemployed Projections MPR 1/22
Job vacancies
In thousands. January 2018 – April 2022
Sources: Norwegian Labour and Welfare Administration (NAV) and Norges Bank
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-22 Seasonally adjusted
Not adjusted Trend
26
Wage growth
27
Percent. 2016 – 2022
1)0 1 2 3 4 5
0 1 2 3 4 5
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Expectations Survey Regional Network survey Wage norm Actual annual wages Projections MPR 1/22
1) Projections for 202 for annual wages
Sources: Epinion, Ipsos, Confederation of Norwegian Enterprise (NHO)/Norwegian Confederation of Trade Unions (LO), Opinion, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
CPI and indicators of underlying inflation
28
Twelve-month change. Percent. January 2016 – June 2022
1)-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Indicators² CPI
CPI-ATE Median
Inflation target Projections MPR 1/22
1) Projections for April 2022 – June 2022.
2) The band shows the highest and lowest values for CPIM, CPIXE, 20% trimmed mean, weighted median, CPI-XV and CPI common.
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
CPI-ATE by supplier sector
29
Twelve-month change. Percent. January 2016 – June 2022
1)1) Projections from April 2022 – June 2022 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Imported goods
Domestically produced goods and services
Projections MPR 1/22
29
Container freight rates from China
30
Index. February 2020 = 100. Week 1 2012 – week 17 2022
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
Shanghai Containerized Frieght Index (SCFI) China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI)
Freightos Baltic Container Index China to northern Europe (FBX) MPR 1/22
Source: Refinitiv Datastream
