CHARTS
MONETARY POLICY MEETING 19 JANUARY 2022
Monetary Policy Report 4/21, overall picture
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank 2
Output gap Policy rate
Inflation (CPI) Inflation (CPI-ATE)
-1 0 1 2 3
-1 0 1 2 3
2015 2018 2021 2024
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 1 2 3 4 5
2015 2018 2021 2024
-9 -6 -3 0 3
-9 -6 -3 0 3
2015 2018 2021 2024
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 1 2 3 4 5
2015 2018 2021 2024
Number of infected per day
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450
Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22
Sweden Denmark Norway
TP weighted average
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22
US
Euro area UK
TP weighted average
3
New cases per 100 000 inhabitants. Seven-day moving average. 24 May 2021 – 18 January 2022
1)1) Latest observation for Sweden, the US and trading partners (TP) is 17 January 2022.
Sources: Refinitiv Datastream and Norges Bank
Hospitalisations
4
Number of Covid patients in hospital per 100 000 inhabitants.
22 January 2020 – 18 January 2022
1)0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21
Denmark France Norway UK US
1) Latest observation for the US is 16 January and for the UK 17 January.
Sources: HDI, ourworldindata.org and Norges Bank
Vaccination coverage
5
Share of fully vaccinated with third dose per 100 persons.
1 June 2021 – 18 January 2022
1)1) Latest observation for the US, euro area, the UK, Israel and the world is 17 January.
Source: Refinitiv Datastream
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Jun-21 Aug-21 Oct-21 Dec-21
USEuro area UKSweden Israel Denmark Norway World
GDP forecast for trading partners 1)
1) Thirteen trading partners. Export weights. 6
Sources: Consensus Economics, IMF, and Norges Bank
Index. 2019 = 100. 2019 – 2024
94 96 98 100 102 104 106 108 110 112
94 96 98 100 102 104 106 108 110 112
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
MPR 4/21
Consensus forecast January Consensus forecast December IMF October
PMI for trading partners
7
Diffusion index. January 2018 – December 2021
PMI services PMI manufacturing
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
2018 2019 2020 2021 US
Euro area UK
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
2018 2019 2020 2021 US
Euro area UK
Source: Refinitiv Datastream
PMI manufacturing
8
PMI manufacturing delivery times. Index. Under 50 = longer delivery times. January 2005 – December 2021
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020
US
Euro area UK
Sweden
Source: Refinitiv Datastream
Trading partner consumer prices
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
2018 2019 2020 2021
US Euro area
UK Sweden
Twelve-month change. Percent. January 2018 – December 2021
1)Headline CPI Core CPI
1) Latest observation for euro area headline CPI is November 2021.
Source: Refinitiv Datastream
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
2018 2019 2020 2021
US Euro area
UK Sweden
9
Oil and gas spot and futures prices
10
Oil. USD per barrel. Natural gas. USD per barrel equivalent.
January 2015 – December 2024
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Gas
Oil
Futures prices 18 January 2022 Futures prices MPR 4/21
Sources: Refinitiv Datastream and Norges Bank
Electricity spot and futures prices
11
Øre/kWh. January 2010 – December 2025
0 40 80 120 160 200 240 280 320
0 40 80 120 160 200 240 280 320
2010 2013 2016 2019 2022
Norway Germany
Futures prices 18 January 22 Futures prices MPR 4/21
Sources: Refinitiv Datastream and Norges Bank
Money market rates for trading partners
12
Three-month money market rates for Norway’s trading partners.
Percent. 2015 Q1 – 2024 Q4
Sources: Refinitiv Datastream and Norges Bank
-0.5 0 0.5 1
-0.5 0 0.5 1
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Forward rates MPR 4/21
Forward rates 18 January 2022
Policy rates in selected countries
13
Policy rates and estimated forward rates
1). Percent. January 2015 – December 2024. 18 January (solid line) and MPR 4/21 (broken line)
1) Overnight Index Swap (OIS) rates.
2) ECB deposit facility rate.
Sources: Bloomberg, Refinitiv Datastream and Norges Bank
-1 0 1 2 3
-1 0 1 2 3
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
US Euro area²⁾
UK Sweden
Long-term sovereign yields
14
Ten-year government bonds. Percent. 1 January 2020 – 18 January 2022
-1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2
-1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2
Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-22
US Germany
UK Sweden
Norway
Source: Bloomberg
MPR 4/21
Global equity markets
15
Index. 1 January 2020 = 100. 1 January 2020 – 18 January 2022
Sources: Bloomberg and Norges Bank
60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200
60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200
Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-22
USEuro area UKChina
Emerging economies Norway
MPR 4/21
Import-weighted exchange rate index (I-44)
16
Import-weighted exchange rate index (I-44). 1 January 2019 – 31 March 2022
1)1) Projections for 2022 Q1.
Source: Norges Bank
100
110
120
130
140 100
110
120
130
140Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 I-44 Projections MPR 4/21
MPR 4/21
Stronger krone
Three-month money market premium
Percentage points. Five-day moving average. 1 January 2015 – 18 January 2024
1)1) Projections for 2022 Q1 – 2024 Q4.
Sources: Refinitiv Datastream and Norges Bank
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Projections MPR 4/21 MPR 4/21
17
Banks’ residential mortgage rates
18
Nominal floating interest rate. January 2019 – December 2021
1)1) Latest observations for banks’ outstanding mortgage and deposit rates are from November 2021. Latest observations for the policy rate and quoted rates are from 31 December 2021.
Sources: Finansportalen, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
-1 0 1 2 3 4
-1 0 1 2 3 4
Jan-19 May-19 Sep-19 Jan-20 May-20 Sep-20 Jan-21 May-21 Sep-21 Jan-22 Outstanding mortgages Deposits Quoted rates Policy rate
Credit growth
19
C2. Twelve-month change. Percent. January 2015 – March 2022
1)Non-financial enterprises mainland Norway Households
1) Projections for December 2021 – March 2022.
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
-2 0 2 4 6 8 10
-2 0 2 4 6 8 10
2015 2017 2019 2021 MPR 4/21
-2 0 2 4 6 8 10
-2 0 2 4 6 8 10
2015 2017 2019 2021 MPR 4/21
Mainland GDP
20
Monthly and three-month growth. Seasonally adjusted. Percent.
March 2020 – December 2021
1)1) Projections for November 2021 – December 2021.
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6
-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6
Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20 Mar-21 Jun-21 Sep-21 Dec-21 Monthly growth
Projections MPR 4/21 Rolling three-month growth
Fiscal policy
21
Structural non-oil deficit. 2002 – 2022
Share of trend GDP for mainland Norway.
Percent In billions of 2022 NOK
Source: Ministry of Finance
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 0
2 4 6 8 10 12 14
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
National Budget 2022
Updated National Budget 2022 MPR 4/21
Goods consumption
22
Seasonally adjusted volume index. January 2015 – November 2021
125 130 135 140 145 150 155 160
125 130 135 140 145 150 155 160
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Source: Statistics Norway
-10 0 10 20 30 40 50
-10 0 10 20 30 40 50
14-Oct-2021 4-Nov-2021 25-Nov-2021 16-Dec-2021 6-Jan-2022
Goods Services Groceries
Goods and services consumption
23
Value of card transactions via BankAxept and Nets relative to
2019/2020
1). Fourteen-day moving avg. Percent. 1 October – 8 January
1) Value relative to the same period in 2019 (for observations until 31 December) and 2020 (from 1-8 January).
Sources: Nets, Vipps and Norges Bank
Black Friday
Consumer confidence (CCI)
24
Index. May 2007 – December 2021
Source: ForbrukerMeteret from Opinion
-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15
-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021
CCI Average
Building permits issued for housing starts
In thousands of units. January 2000 – December 2021
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2021
2020 2019
Average (2000-2019)
25
House prices
26
Twelve-month change. Percent. Jan 2015 – Dec 2021
1)-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20
-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
House prices
Projections MPR 4/21
1) Projections for December 2021 – March 2022.
Sources: Eiendomsverdi, Finn.no, Real Estate Norway and Norges Bank
House prices in selected Norwegian cities
27
Twelve-month change. Percent. January 2015 – December 2021
-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30
-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Norway OsloTrondheim Bergen
Stavanger and vicinity Tromsø
Kristiansand
Sources: Eiendomsverdi, Real Estate Norway and Finn.no
Unemployment
28
Share of labour force. Seasonally adjusted. Percent.
January 2015 – June 2022
1)1) Projections for December 2021 – June 2022.
Sources: Norwegian Labour and Welfare Administration (NAV) and Norges Bank
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Registered unemployment Projections MPR 4/21
Furloughed workers and unemployed
29
Registered unemployed as a share of the labour force. Projections for
January from MPR 4/21. Unadjusted. Percent. Week 50 2021 – Week 4 2022
Sources: Norwegian Labour and Welfare Administration (NAV) and Norges Bank 2.2
0.3
1.9 2.5
0.5
2.0 2.6
0.5
2.1 2.7
0.6
2.1 2.7
0.6
2.1
0 1 2 3 4
0 1 2 3 4
Fully unemployed Fully furloughed Ordinary unemployed Week 50 (Dec value)
Week 51 Week 1 Week 2 Week 3
Week 4 (January projections)
3.3
CPI and indicators of underlying inflation
30
Twelve-month change. Percent. January 2015 – December 2021
1)-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Indicators² CPI
CPI-ATE Median
Inflation target Projections MPR 4/21
1) Projections for December 2021 – March 2021.
2) The band shows the highest and lowest values for CPIM, CPIXE, 20% trimmed mean, weighted median, CPI-XV and CPI common.
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
CPI-ATE by supplier sector
31
Twelve-month change. Percent. January 2015 – December 2021
1)1) Projections for December 2021 – March 2022.
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Imported goods
Domestically produced goods and services
Projections MPR 4/21
31
Container freight rates from China
32
February 2020 = 100. September 2011 – January 2022
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021
Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI)
Freightos Baltic Container Index China to northern Europe (FBX)
Source: Refinitiv Datastream
MPR 4/21
CHARTS
MONETARY POLICY MEETING 19 JANUARY 2022
