Executive Board Meeting
12 May 2011
Growth projections 2011 and 2012, IMF
World Economic Outlook April 2011. Per cent
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
US Euro area China India
2011 2012
Source: IMF
Risk in equity markets
VIX
1). Per cent. 1 January 2008 – 10 May 2011
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11
1) Measure of expected volatility in the share price index, S&P500, where an increase indicates higher expected volatility Sources: Bloomberg and Thomson Reuters
Yield spread over German 10-year government bonds
Percentage points. 1 January 2010 – 10 May 2011
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11
Portugal Spain Ireland Greece Italy Belgium
Source: Bloomberg
Sources: Thomson Reuters, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Commodity prices
Index. Week 1 2002 = 100. USD.
Jan 2002 – May 2011
Oil 1) , gas and petroleum export prices
USD/barrel. Jan 2002 – May 2011
1) Brent blend
2) Weighted average of export prices for oil and gas 3) The Economist commodity price index
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
2002 2005 2008 2011
Metals ³⁾
Food³⁾
Aluminium Copper Cotton
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
2002 2005 2008 2011
Oil price
Petroleum price²⁾
Gas price
Inflation
12-month change. Per cent. January 2007 – March 2011
1)Source: Thomson Reuters
-4 0 4 8 12 16
-4 0 4 8 12 16
2007 2009 2011
China Brazil Russia
India, wholesale
-2 0 2 4 6
-2 0 2 4 6
2007 2009 2011
US
Euro area UK
Sweden
China, Brazil, Russia and India US, euro area, UK and Sweden
1) China, Brazil and the euro area to April
Probability of inflation and deflation 1)
Per cent. 1 January 2010 – 10 May 2011
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11
Probability of deflation Probability of inflation above 3 %
MPR 1/11
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11
Probability of deflation Probability of inflation above 3 %
MPR 1/11
US Euro area
1) Based on inflation options (10-year maturity). 10-day moving average
Sources: Bloomberg, Deutsche Bank and Norges Bank
Actual and expected key rates 1)
Per cent. 1 January 2008 – 31 December 2014
2)0 1 2 3 4 5 6
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
US
Euro area³⁾
UK
MPR 1/11 10 May 2011
Sources: Bloomberg and Norges Bank 1) Expected interest rates are based on Overnight Indexed Swap (OIS) rates
2) Daily figures from 1 January 2008 and quarterly figures as at 10 March 2011 3) EONIA in euro area
Effective exchange rates
Index. 1 July 2010 = 100. 1 July 2010 – 10 May 2011
88 92 96 100 104 108 112 116 120
Jul-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 88 92 96 100 104 108 112 116 120
AUD NZD CAD NOK
Sources: Bloomberg and Bank of England
Import-weighted krone exchange rate (1-44) 1)
1 January 2010 – 10 May 2011. Projections for Q2 2011 – Q4 2011
86
88
90
92
94 86
88
90
92
94
Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11
I-44
Projections from MPR 1/11
Source: Norges Bank 1) A rising curve denotes a stronger krone exchange rate
CPI, CPI-ATE 1) and CPIXE 2)
12-month change. Per cent. January 2008 – December 2011
3)-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
2008 2009 2010 2011
CPI CPI-ATE CPIXE
1) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products
2) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding temporary changes in energy prices. Real time data. See Norges Bank Staff Memo 2008/1 and 2009/3 for a description of the CPIXE
3) Projections from MPR 1/11 (broken lines) Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Projections for CPI-ATE 1)
Fan chart for SAM
2)as in MPR 1/11. Four-quarter change.
Per cent. Q1 2010 – Q1 2012
0 1 2 3
0 1 2 3
Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12
Actual CPI-ATE MPR 1/11
SAM MPR 1/11 SAM 12 May
90%
70%
50%
30%
1) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products
2) System for Averaging Models. For more information about SAM and the projections, see www.norges-bank.no
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Norges Bank’s regional network
Survey by phone April 2011
Growth in manufacturing output, but somewhat lower than the 3½ per cent that was expected last year
The cold winter has limited output growth in manufacturing and construction
Somewhat lower-than-expected household demand
Overall market outlook has improved since January
Employment picked up, as expected
Source: Norges Bank
Projections for mainland GDP growth
Fan chart for SAM
1)as in MPR 1/11. Four-quarter change.
Per cent. 2010 Q1 – 2011 Q4
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12
Actual GDP mainland Norway MPR 1/11
SAM MPR 1/11 SAM 12 May 2011
1) System for Averaging Models. For more information about SAM and the projections, see www.norges-bank.no
90%
70%
50%
30%
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Source: Norges Bank
Credit demand, non-financial corporations and households
Per cent. 2010 Q4 – 2011 Q2
-60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60
-60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60
10 Q4 11 Q1 11 Q2 10 Q4 11 Q1 11 Q2
Actual credit demand Expected credit demand
Non-financial corporations Households
Credit growth and property prices
12-month change. Per cent. January 2002 – April 2011
Households
-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25
-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25
2002 2005 2008 2011
Credit to households¹⁾
House prices²⁾
Non-financial corporations
-30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50
-30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50
2002 2005 2008 2011
Credit to enterprises¹⁾
Commercial property selling prices³⁾
1) Households; C2, Enterprises; C3, mainland Norway 2) House prices to April. Credit growth to March
3) Semi-annual figures to end of 2010. Credit growth to January
Sources: Statistics Norway, OPAK, the real estate sector (NEF, EFF, FINN.no and ECON Pöyry), OBOS and Norges Bank
Norges Bank’s key policy rate
Per cent. 2008 Q1 – 2014 Q4
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Strategy interval MPR 1/11
Source: Norges Bank
