MPR 3/15
DEPUTY GOVERNOR JON NICOLAISEN
THE EXECUTIVE BOARD, 23 SEPTEMBER 2015
International inflation
2
Consumer prices. Twelve-month change. Percent.
January 2010 – August 2015
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
US Euro area
UK Sweden
Source: Thomson Reuters
3
-10 -5 0 5 10 15
-10 -5 0 5 10 15
2000 2004 2008 2012
Advanced economies Emerging economies
GDP for trading partners
Four-quarter growth. 25 trading partners. Export weights 2000 Q1 – 2015 Q2
Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank
China
0 5 10 15 20 25
0 5 10 15 20 25
2010 2012 2014
Total GDP Services Industry
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000
Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15
4
GDP by sector
Four-quarter growth. Percent
Stock market
Shanghai index. Daily figures
Sources: Thomson Reuters, CEIC and Norges Bank
Policy rates for trading partners
5
Percent. 1 January 2013 – 2018 Q4
-1 0 1 2 3
-1 0 1 2 3
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
US Euro area
Sweden 21 September 2015
MPR 2/15
Sources: Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank
Money market rates for trading partners
6
Percent. 2010 Q1 – 2018 Q4
0 0,5 1 1,5 2
0 0,5 1 1,5 2
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
MPR 3/15 MPR 2/15
Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank
0 1 2 3 4
0 1 2 3 4
Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15
US UK Germany Sweden Norway
MPR 2/15
Yields on 10-year government bonds
7
Percent. 1 January 2014 – 21 September 2015
Source: Bloomberg
Oil prices
8
USD per barrel. January 2011 – December 2018
Source: Thomson Reuters
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
2011 2013 2015 2017
Oil futures prices MPR 3/15 Oil futures prices MPR 2/15 Oil futures prices MPR 2/14
Oil price and import-weighted exchange rate index (I-44)
9
1 January 2014 – 21 September 2015
1) A positive slope denotes a stronger krone exchange rate Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank
40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 88
93
98
103
108
Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15
I-44¹ (left-hand scale) Oil price (right-hand scale)
Labour costs relative to trading partners
10
Index. 1995 = 100. 1995 - 2015
95 100 105 110 115 120 125 130 135 140
95 100 105 110 115 120 125 130 135 140
1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013
Domestic currency Common currency
Sources: TBU, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Output growth
11
Four-quarter change. Percent. 2003 Q1 – 2016 Q1
-4 -2 0 2 4 6 8
-4 -2 0 2 4 6 8
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Regional network
GDP mainland Norway
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Regional network
12
Expected output growth next six months. Annualised. Percent
Source: Norges Bank
-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
Domest.
oriented mfg.
Export industry Oil serv.
domest.
oriented
Oil serv. export- oriented
Construction Retail trade Commerc.
Services
Househ.
Services
January 2015 May 2015 August 2015
Petroleum investment
13
Volume. Annual change. Percent. 2011 - 2018
-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20
-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
MPR 2/15 MPR 3/15
Sources Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Petroleum investment
14
Share of mainland GDP. Percent Billions of NOK. Constant 2012 prices
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
0 50 100 150 200 250
0 50 100 150 200 250
2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 MPR 2/15
MPR 3/15
0 2 4 6 8 10
0 2 4 6 8 10
1994 1999 2004 2009 2014
Exports
15
Annual change. Percent. 2008 - 2018
-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15
-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Export growth
Export market growth¹
1) Export market growth is calculated as import growth among 25 trading partners Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank
Households
16
Annual change. Percent. 2003 - 2018
0 2 4 6 8
0 2 4 6 8
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Household consumption Household real disposable income
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
House prices
17
Percent. January 2010 – August 2015
-10 -5 0 5 10 15
-1 0 1 2
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Seasonally adjusted monthly change (l.h.s.) Twelve-month change (r.h.s.)
Change in three-month moving average, annualised (r.h.s.)
Sources: Eiendom Norge, Finn.no and Eiendomsverdi
Unemployment rate
18
As a percentage of labour force. Seasonally adjusted January 2006 – August 2015
Sources: NAV (Norwegian Labour and Welfare Administration) and Statistics Norway
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 1 2 3 4 5
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
LFS NAV
Number of unemployed by age
19
In thousands of persons. Seasonally adjusted.
February 2006 – August 2015
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 NAV under 25 years NAV 25 and above
LFS under 25 years LFS 25 and above
Sources: Statistics Norway and NAV
Unemployment by county
Percentage of labour force. Seasonally adjusted January 2001 – August 2015
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 1 2 3 4 5
2001 2004 2007 2010 2013
Hordaland, Møre og Romsdal, Rogaland and Vest-Agder Rest of the country
Sources: NAV and Norges Bank
CPI-ATE in total and by supplier sector
21
Twelve-month change. Percent. January 2008 – December 2015
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Imported consumer goods
Domestically produced goods and services CPI-ATE
MPR 3/15
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Four-quarter consumer price inflation
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
30% 50% 70% 90%
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
30% 50% 70% 90%
22
Projected CPI and CPI-ATE in the baseline scenario with fan chart. Percent CPI-ATE
CPI
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Baseline projections in Monetary Policy Report 3/15
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank 23
Output gap Key policy rate
CPI-ATE Exchange rate (I-44)
0 1 2 3
0 1 2 3
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
MPR 3/15 MPR 2/15
-2 -1 0 1 2
-2 -1 0 1 2
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
0 1 2 3 4
0 1 2 3 4
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
85 90 95 100 105
85 90 95 100 105
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Projected key policy rate in the baseline scenario with fan chart
24
Percent. 2010 Q1 – 2018 Q4
Source: Norges Bank
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
30%
50%
70%
90%
Factors behind changes in the interest rate forecast since MPR 2/15
25
Cumulative contributions. Percentage points. 2015 Q4 – 2018 Q4
-2 -1 0 1 2
-2 -1 0 1 2
2015Q4 2016Q2 2016Q4 2017Q2 2017Q4 2018Q2 2018Q4
Demand Prices
Exchange rate Foreign interest rates Change in interest rate forecast
Source: Norges Bank
