Executive Board Meeting
22 September 2010
Source: Thomson Reuters
Unemployment
Share of labour force. Per cent. Seasonally adjusted.
January 2005 – August 2010
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22
2005 2007 2009
Sweden Spain Germany Denmark
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
2005 2007 2009
Euro area UK
Japan
US
Long-term nominal interest rates
5-year 5 years ahead. Swap rates. Per cent. 1 July 2008 – 20 September 2010
2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0
2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0
01. Jul 16. Jul 31. Jul 15. Aug 30. Aug 14. Sep
US
Euro area UK
Norway
Source: Thomson Reuters 0 2 4 6
0 2 4 6
Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10
US Euro area
UK Norway
Consumer prices
12-month change. Per cent. January 2005 – August 2010
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
2005 2007 2009
US Euro area
UK Japan
Source: Thomson Reuters
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
2005 2007 2009
US Euro area
UK Japan
CPI Core CPI
1)1) CPI/HICP excl. food and energy for US and Japan and excl. food, energy, alcohol and tobacco for euro area and UK
Long-term inflation expectations 1)
5-year 5 years ahead. 10-day moving average. Per cent.
1 July 2007 – 20 September 2010
0 1 2 3 4
0 1 2 3 4
Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10
US, inflation swap Euro area, inflation swap
US, break-even Euro area, break-even
SPF and UofMich 5-year 5 years ahead (US) SPF 5-years ahead (euro area)
Source: Bloomberg L.P.
1) Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) and University of Michigan (Uof Mich) refer to sample surveys
Probability of deflation and high inflation in next 10 years in US
Estimates based on inflation options
1).10-year maturity. Per cent.
1 January 2010 – 20 September 2010
0 3 5 8 10 13 15
0 3 5 8 10 13 15
Jan-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jul-10 Sep-10
Probability of deflation
Probability of high inflation (above 5 per cent)
Sources: Bloomberg L.P., Deutsche Bank and Norges Bank 1) ZC Floors and Caps, strike 0,0% and 5,0%
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10
Europe Stoxx Japan Topix Norway OSEBX US S&P 500
Emerging economies MSCI
International equity prices
Total yield. Index. 1 January 2008 = 100.
1 January 2008 – 20 September 2010
Source: Thomson Reuters
Oil Price (Brent Blend)
USD per barrel. Daily figures.
January 2004 – April 2013
Commodity prices
In USD. Spot and forward prices
1). January 2004 – December 2013
Sources: Thomson Reuters ,CME Group, ICE and Norges Bank 1) Index 5 January 2004 = 100
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Spot MPR 2/10 11.08.2010 20.09.2010
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Wheat Soya beans
Maize Coffee
Cotton
Key rates and estimated forward rates as at 11 August 2010 and 20 September 2010 1)
Per cent. 1 January 2007 - 20 September 2010
2)0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13
Euro area US
UK Sweden
1) Broken lines show estimated forward rates as at 11 August 2010. Thin lines show forward rates as at 20 September 2010. Forward rates are based on Overnight Indexed Swap (OIS) interest rates
2) Daily figures from 1 January 2007 and quarterly figures as at 20 September 2010 Sources: Bloomberg L.P. and Norges Bank
Difference between 3-month money market rate and key rate expectations in the market 1)
Percentage points. 5-day moving average.
4 January 2007 – 20 September 2010
0 1 2 3 4
0 1 2 3 4
Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10
US
Euro area Norway
Trading partners
1) Expected key rates are derived from overnight Indexed Swap (OIS) rates. Norges Bank’s projections for market key rate expectations are used for Norway
Sources: Bloomberg L.P., Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank
Yield spreads against German 10-year government bonds
0 2 4 6 8 10
0 2 4 6 8 10
Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10
Portugal Spain Italy Irland Greece
Source: Bloomberg L.P.
Percentage points. 1 July 2008 – 20 September 2010
Import-weighted exchange rate (I-44)
1 January 2008 – 20 September 2010
80 85 90 95 100 105 110
80 85 90 95 100 105 110
Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10
MPR 2/10 MPR 1/10
Lehman Brothers
Projection MPR 2/10
Source: Norges Bank
Mainland GDP
Projected and actual developments. Seasonally adjusted. Change on previous quarter. Per cent. 2008 Q1 – 2010 Q2
-1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0
-1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0
Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10
Mainland GDP. Projected and actual developments in MPR 2/10 1) Mainland GDP excl. power production
Mainland GDP
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank 1) History and projections are based on data as at 17 June 2010
Projections for mainland GDP
Projections from SAM
1)with fan chart from MPR 2/10 and SAM as at 10 September. Four-quarter change. Per cent
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank 1) System for Averaging Models. For more information about SAM and the
projections see www.norges-bank.no
-4 -2 0 2 4 6 8
-4 -2 0 2 4 6 8
Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11
SAM in MPR 2/10
Baseline scenario MPR 2/10
New SAM projections (10 September)
New orders and order reserves
Total for order–based manufacturing. Value index. Seasonally adjusted.
2005 = 100. 2001 Q1 – 2010 Q2
Export market Domestic market
50 100 150 200 250 300
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
Order intake Order backlog
50 100 150 200 250 300
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
Order intake Order backlog
Source: Statistics Norway
Order statistics for building and construction
Seasonally adjusted. Value. 2005 = 100. 2001 Q1 – 2010 Q2
40 60 80 100 120 140 160
40 60 80 100 120 140 160
Mar-01 Mar-03 Mar-05 Mar-07 Mar-09
Order backlog Order intake
Source: Statistics Norway
Housing and other building starts 1)
Utility space in 1000 m
2. Seasonally adjusted and trend.
January 2002 – July 2010
Housing starts Other building starts
1)1) Commercial property, holiday homes and garages Source: Statistics Norway
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Seasonally adjusted Trend
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Seasonally adjusted
Trend
Key figures for listed companies
Per cent. Quarterly figures. 2002 Q1 – 2010 Q2
-30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30
-30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Equity return Operating margin
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank 1) The sample comprises 139 non-financial listed companies as at 2010 Q2.
Statoil is not included in the sample
Registered
unemployment
In thousands. Seasonally adjusted.
January 2007 – August 2010
Employment (LFS)
In thousands. Seasonally adjusted.
January 2007 – June 2010
0 20 40 60 80 100
0 20 40 60 80 100
2007 2008 2009 2010
2350 2400 2450 2500 2550
2350 2400 2450 2500 2550
2007 2008 2009 2010
Sources: Arbeids- og velferdsetaten (NAV), Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Key policy rate, money market rate 1) and
weighted bank lending rates on new loans 2)
Percentage points. 3 May 2007 – 20 September 2010
Sources: Norsk familieøkonomi and Norges Bank 1) 3-month NIBOR (effective)
2) Interest rate on new residential mortgages of NOK 1m within 60% of purchase price with variable interest rate.
Figures for the 20 largest banks, weighted according to market share
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
May-07 Nov-07 May-08 Nov-08 May-09 Nov-09 May-10
Weighted bank lending rate Money market rate
Key policy rate
Credit to households 1) and house prices
12-month change. Per cent.
January 2002 - A ugust 2010
2)Credit to enterprises 1) and commercial property
prices 3)
12-month change. Per cent.
January 2002 – June 2010
-30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50
-30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50
2002 2005 2008
Commercial property prices
Credit to enterprises
1) C2, households; C3, enterprises in mainland Norway 2) House prices to end-August. Credit growth to end-July 3) Semiannual figures. To end of second half of 2010
Sources: Statistics Norway, OPAK, the real estate sector (NEF, EFF, FINN.no and ECON Pöyry), OBOS and Norges Bank
2002 2005 2008
-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25
-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25
House prices
Credit to households
Index of household spending on goods
Volume. Seasonally adjusted index. January 2007 – Juli 2010
TNS Gallup’s
household trend indicator
Seasonally adjusted net figures.
1992 Q3 – 2010 Q3
130 140 150 160 170
130 140 150 160 170
2007 2008 2009 2010
-30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40
-30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40
1992 1997 2002 2007
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
CPI, CPI-ATE 1) and CPIXE 2)
Projections from MPR 2/10 (broken lines). 12-month change. Per cent.
January 2007 – September 2010
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank 1) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products
2) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding temporary changes in energy prices. Real time data. See Staff Memo 2008/1 and 2009/3 from Norges Bank for a description of the CPIXE
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
2007 2008 2009 2010
CPI
CPI-ATE
CPIXE
Projections for CPI-ATE 1)
Projections from SAM
2)with fan chart from MPR 2/10 and SAM as at 10 September 2010. Four-quarter change. Per cent
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank 1) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products
2) System for Averaging Models. For more information about SAM and the projections see www.norges-bank.no
