Executive Board meeting
19 December 2012
-0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5
-0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5
2010 2011 2012 2013
Projections MPR 3/12 Projections MPR 2/12
GDP for trading partners
Seasonally adjusted. Quarterly growth in percent
Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank
-0.4 0.1 0.6 1.1
-0.4 0.1 0.6 1.1
IMF OECD Eur.
Comm.
ECB CF NB
Spring Autumn
3
Projections for euro area GDP growth in 2013 at different points in time
Percent
Sources: IMF, OECD, European Commission, European Central Bank (ECB), Consensus Forecasts (CF) and Norges Bank (NB)
Oil prices
Brent Blend and prices for Norwegian petroleum exports
1)USD/barrel
Commodities
Index. 2 January 2007 = 100
Source: Thomson Reuters 1) Weighted average of Norwegian crude oil and gas exports
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
2007 2011 2015
Aluminium Copper
Wheat Maize
Soybeans Futures at MPR 3/12 Futures
0 25 50 75 100 125 150
0 25 50 75 100 125 150
2007 2010 2013
Oil (Brent Blend) Futures
Futures at MPR 3/12 Petroleum exports
0 1 2 3 4
0 1 2 3 4
Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15
US
Euro area²⁾
UK Sweden
MPR 3/12
17 December 2012
Actual and expected key rates
Percent¹⁾
1) Based on Overnight Indexed Swap (OIS) rates. Daily figures from 1 January and quarterly figures from 2013 Q1 2) EONIA in the Euro area Sources: Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg and Norges Bank
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
2010 2011 2012 2013
Norway US Europe
Advanced economies European financials China (Hong Kong) Emerging markets
Source: Bloomberg
0 1 2 3 4
0 1 2 3 4
2010 2011 2012 2013
iTraxx corporates iTraxx financials iTraxx governments
Equity markets
Index. January 2010 = 100
asdf
CDS premiums
Europe. Percentage points
Yields on 10-year government bonds
Percent
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Spain Germany Italy
7 Sources: Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank
3-month money market premiums
Percentage points
0 1 2 3 4
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
0 1 2 3 4
US
Euro area
Norway
Interest rates and premiums
Percent Dwellings
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12
Key policy rate
Money market premium
Risk premium 5-year covered bonds
Bank lending rate (new residential mortgages)¹⁾
Lending rate on home equity lines of credit
Corporate
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12
Key policy rate
Money market premium
Risk premium 5-year bank bonds Average corporate lending rate
Sources: DNB Markets, Norsk familieøkonomi, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
1) Nominal interest rate on new residential mortgages of NOK 1m within 60% of purchase price
9
Krone exchange rate
I-44
Source: Norges Bank
84
85
86
87
88
89
90 84
85
86
87
88
89
90
Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12
-8 -4 0 4 8 12 16
-4 -2 0 2 4 6 8
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
Regional network (l-h.s.)
Mainland GDP growth (annualised, r-h.s.)
Mainland GDP and Norges Bank’s regional network indicator for growth in output
Past three months and expected output growth six months forward. Percent
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Capacity constraints Labour supply
11
Capacity constraints 1) and labour supply 2)
Percent
Source: Norges Bank’s regional network 1) Share of contacts that will have some or considerable problems
accommodating an increase in demand.
2) Share of contacts citing labour supply as a constraint on production
1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5
1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5
2009 2010 2011 2012
Registered unemployment
As a percentage of the work force. Seasonally adjusted
Sources: NAV and Norges Bank
Household saving and consumption
-15 -10 -5 0 5 10
-15 -10 -5 0 5 10
2003 2007 2011
Total savings Net lending
Net lending acc. to financial accounts
13 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
100 105 110 115 120 125 130
100 105 110 115 120 125 130
2007 2009 2011
Total savings and net lending
As a percentage of disposable income. Percent
Consumption of goods
Index
Housing investment as a percentage of GDP
Sources: Statistics Norway and EUROSTAT 1) Share of mainland GDP excl. power supply
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
Spain Ireland Norway¹⁾
0 1 2 3 4
0 1 2 3 4
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
CPI
CPI-ATE¹⁾
CPIXE²⁾
15
CPI, CPI-ATE and CPIXE
12-month change. Percent
Projections MPR 3/12
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank 1) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products
2) CPIXE: CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding temporary changes in energy prices.
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
MPR 3/12
Interval 1% - 2%
Projected key policy rate in the baseline scenario
Percent
30%
50%
70%
90%
Source: Norges Bank
