Scenario justification
Justification: The event of a nuclear bomb is included in the assessment as one representation of all the improbable events that may affect the Piql Preservation Services during the course of 500 years. Yet, we cannot categorically rule out that they will occur as the level of uncertainty is so high in this assessment, so they must be included. We chose this as our unlikely scenario, as the effects of nuclear detonations have been demonstrated, and as such we can apply these to the Piql Preservation Services, as opposed to an event we have no knowledge of.
Purpose: The purpose of the scenario is also connected to the level of uncertainty associated with the longevity of 500 years. Its main goal is to emphasise the fact that during the course of such a long time the Piql Preservation Services can be caught in something that is much bigger than itself, making its safety and security depend on events and decisions far outside its control. In such a situation, being able to correctly analyse ones situation and ones surroundings, and most importantly be willing to quickly adapt to new situations is vital. In this case, such willingness can allow the Piql Preservation Services to be moved out of harm’s way, or be annihilated along with everything else when the nuclear detonation is a fact.
Scenario outline
The scenario is set in the geographical zone Middle (Middle East). In a future setting, the days of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) are back, yet the situation is different than it was during the 20th century. There are a greater number of active nuclear powers now, all of whom use deterrence as their main policy. This means that the proliferation of nuclear weapons is higher than ever before and more regions of the world are directly exposed to the threat. Countless warheads are directed at various major cities at all times. One such city is a major metropolis in the Middle East. A glitch in the launch system of a major nuclear power releases a missile on said city by mistake. Even though the piqlVault is not situated within the radius of ground zero where heavily built concrete structures are severely damaged and fatalities approach 100 %, it is still within the air blast and thermal radiation radius where most residential houses collapse and fatalities are widespread. The Piql Preservation Services is not the main target – it was simply placed in an area more vulnerable to an attack – and because of that it is destroyed as a casualty of war.
Cause Type of risk (Hazard/Threat)
Threat: A thermal nuclear detonation. The global political environment is such that you have a nuclear warhead directed at your city at all times.
Intentional (Yes/No/Both)
Both. The threat is intentional, i.e. to have a nuclear warhead directed at the city at all time, but the actual detonation was an accident caused by a malfunctioning launch system.
Profile of actor (if intentional)
Major nuclear power with nuclear warheads directed at various targets at all times.
Description of cause
Due to the global political environment and the policy of MAD, the Middle Eastern city is targeted with a nuclear warhead. However, its detonation was an accident. The threat actor had no real intention of launching the missile.
The nuclear warhead detonated weighs 300 kiloton, which, when
detonated in the air above the target, as good as annihilates everything in a 7.5 km radius from ground zero. The destruction is caused either by the initial fireball or blast wave or the mass fire ignited as a consequence of the former. The area most affect by the radioactive fallout depends on the wind direction and where the smoke and mushroom cloud are carried.
Competence and resources (if intentional)
The threat actor is one of several acknowledged nuclear powers. They have done nuclear weapons testing, which has been verified by other nations as being successful.
User/value
User class Business or private, sensitive information or not: the vulnerability is the same for all when the piqlVault is positioned in the damage radius of the nuclear detonation.
User type Not relevant. See over.
Value Not relevant. See over.
Location
Location description
Geographical zone: Middle (Middle East). The setting is a major Middle Eastern metropolis. The developmental level is not very high, and construction techniques are not very modern or advanced.
The piqlVault is situated in an urban area, centrally located in the city.
The scenario takes place in the future, 2399, as it presupposes an
imagined situation in which the days of MAD are back. As the user class is undefined in this scenario, so is the time period, but it could apply for both: the result would be the same.
Environment description
The climate zone is hot desert with very little precipitation. It is autumn, the beginning of October. The local weather conditions are mild and dry:
18° Celsius with a relative humidity of 41 %.
The incident occurs late afternoon.
Vault description The scenario takes place while the piqlFilms are in storage in the
piqlVault. The piqlVault system is placed in a storage room located in the
lower floors of an office building.
The vault is regulated through ventilation to uphold the ISO standards governing levels of humidity and temperature.
Local safety measures
All safety measures required by Piql AS are in place, see section 5.5.1 for details.
Local security
measures All security measures required by Piql AS are in place.
Consequences
Outer building
The physical infrastructure of the building housing the piqlVault suffers severe structural damage from the initial blast wave. The building is caught in the mass fire shortly after, which rages for hours at extreme temperatures. The building, and everything in it, is no more.
Vault The infrastructure of the storage room and the piqlVault system suffers the same fate as the building within which it is place.
Box The piqlBoxes all melt during the mass fire.
Film
The piqlFilms all melt during the mass fire.
However, image a slightly different scenario: Were the piqlFilms located outside of the thermal radiation radius, i.e. just out of reach of the
destruction caused by the detonation but instead exposed to the maximum amount of radiation from the radioactive fallout, the piqlFilms would suffer exposure to high-energy radiation over a long period of time.
Because of the mass fire and the consequent intense heat and the danger to exposure, no personnel can get near the piqlFilms for days. The high levels of radiation will do little to the integrity of the information on the piqlFilms, but it will result in reduced longevity for the physical medium.
Power/energy supply As the building which houses the piqlVault is destroyed, this is not relevant.
Divergence from ISO standard
As the building which houses the piqlVault is destroyed, this is not relevant.
Security mechanisms
Integrity The integrity of all the piqlFilms is compromised, as none of them retained their physical structure after the detonation and the data is lost.
Availability
The availability of all the piqlFilms is compromised, as they all were completely destroyed after the detonation and as such never accessible again.
Confidentiality
The confidentiality of all the piqlFilms remains intact during the incident, as no one could access the piqlVault while it was still standing. After it was destroyed, the information on the piqlFilms was no longer accessible to the data owner, but neither was it accessible to anybody else.
Immunity (against attacks on the above mentioned)
The Piql Preservation Services is not immune to attacks against integrity or availability.
Recommendations
Recommended protective measures
The consequences of a doomsday scenario such as this are difficult to mitigate against. The only option is to be realistic and foresighted enough to move the piqlVault out of harm’s way. In this scenario, that would mean out of any major city, and even there one can never be entirely safe from the radioactive fallout. The best protection one can give the
piqlVault from a nuclear strike, is placing it in a mountain hall. Yet, even there it might not be safe from a direct hit given the strength of today’s weapons, and probably also the future’s.
References
Relevant literature [50] Glasstone S., Dolan P. J. (eds.) (1977) The Effects of Nuclear Weapons
[87] Wellerstein, A. (2014) Nukemap
[88] Starr, S. (2005), The Effects of a 300 kiloton Nuclear Warhead Detonated Above Washington, D.C.