MPR 4/15
DEPUTY GOVERNOR JON NICOLAISEN
THE EXECUTIVE BOARD, 16 DECEMBER 2015
GDP growth for trading partners
2
Export weights. Annual change. Percent. 2005 – 2018
-6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12
-6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12
2005 2008 2011 2014 2017
Advanced economies Emerging economies
Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank
Consumer prices, trading partners
Twelve-month change. Percent. January 2010 – November 2015 Core inflation
CPI total
Source: Thomson Reuters
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 US
Euro area UK
Sweden
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 US
Euro area UK
Sweden
3
Actual and expected key rates
4
Percent. 1 January 2014 – 31 December 2018
Sources: Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank
-1 0 1 2 3
-1 0 1 2 3
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
US Euro area
UK Sweden
14 December 2015 MPR 3/15
Money market rates for trading partners
5
Percent. 2010 Q1 – 2018 Q4
Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank
0 0.5 1 1.5 2
0 0.5 1 1.5 2
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 MPR 4/15
MPR 3/15
Yields on 10-year government bonds
6
Percent. 1 January 2014 – 14 December 2015
Source: Bloomberg
0 1 2 3 4
0 1 2 3 4
Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15
US UK Germany Sweden Norway
MPR 3/15
Oil price and import-weighted exchange rate index (I-44)
7
1 January 2012 – 14 December 2015
1) A positive slope denotes a stronger krone exchange rate Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank
20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 80
85 90 95 100 105 110 115
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Projection I-44 MPR 4/15 (l.h.s.) I-44¹ (l.h.s.)
Oil price (r.h.s.)
Three-month Nibor spread
8
Five-day moving average. Percentage points.
January 2010 – June 2016
Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank
0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 1.25 1.5
0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 1.25 1.5
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Three-month Nibor spread Projections MPR 4/15
Risk premiums on bank bonds and covered bonds (CB)
9
Against German government bond yields. Basis points.
8 January 2014 – 9 December 2015
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15
Norwegian CBs European seniors European CBs DNB seniors
Sources: Reuters and DNB Markets
GDP mainland Norway
10
Change from previous quarter. Percent. 2013 Q1 – 2016 Q1
0 0.5 1 1.5
0 0.5 1 1.5
2013 2014 2015 2016
GDP mainland Norway SAM
MPR 4/15
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Regional network – output growth
11
Annualised. Percent
-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5
-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Past three months Next six months
May 2015
August 2015
October 2015
Source: Norges Bank
Regional network
12
Expected output growth next six months
1). Annualised. Percent
-6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
-6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
Domest.
oriented mfg.
Export industry Oil serv.
domest.
oriented
Oil serv.
export-oriented
Construction Retail trade Commerc.
services
Househ.
services
May 2015 August 2015 October 2015
1The network uses an index from -5 to +5, where -5 indicates that production is expected to decline by 10 percent or more annualised. Several oil service enterprises expected production to decline by more than 10 percent in the next six months. This is not reflected in the chart due to the limitations of the index.
Source: Norges Bank
Consumer confidence and private consumption
13
Four-quarter change in private consumption. Percent
Consumer Confidence Indicator.
2007 Q2 – 2016 Q2
TNS Gallup total.
2007 Q1 – 2016 Q2
Sources: TNS Gallup, Opinion, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank -6
-4 -2 0 2 4 6 8
-30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40
2007 2010 2013 2016
TNS Gallup. Trend (l.h.s.) Private consumption (r.h.s.)
-6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8
-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20
2007 2010 2013 2016
CCI main index (l.h.s.) Private consumption (r.h.s.)
Households
14
Annual change. Percent. 2003 - 2018
0 2 4 6 8
0 2 4 6 8
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Household consumption Household real disposable income
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
House prices
15
Percent. January 2010 – November 2015
-5 0 5 10 15
-1 0 1 2 3
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Seasonally adjusted monthly change (l.h.s.) Twelve-month change (r.h.s.)
Change in three-month moving average (r.h.s.)
Sources: Eiendom Norge, Finn.no and Eiendomsverdi
Petroleum investment
16
Volume. Annual change. Percent. 2011 - 2018
-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20
-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
MPR 3/15 MPR 4/15
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Exports
17
Annual change. Percent. 2008 - 2018
-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20
-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Exports from mainland Norway
Imports by Norway's trading partners Oil-related exports from mainland Norway Other exports from mainland Norway
Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank
Fiscal policy
18
Public sector demand.
Volume. Annual change. Percent
Structural non-oil deficit.
In billions of NOK. Constant 2016 prices
Sources: Ministry of Finance, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank 0
50 100 150 200 250 300 350
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 Structural non-oil deficit
4% of GPFG
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 MPR 3/15
MPR 4/15
Growth in population and labour force
-0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5
-0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5
2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 MPR 3/15
MPR 4/15
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4
2003 2007 2011 2015
MPR 3/15 MPR 4/15
19
Labour force growth. Percent Population growth. Percent
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Unemployment rate
20
As percentage of labour force. Seasonally adjusted.
January 2008 – November 2015
Sources: Statististics Norway and NAV (Norwegian Labour and Welfare Administration)
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 1 2 3 4 5
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
LFS
NAV including employment schemes NAV
Registered unemployment by county
As percentage of labour force. Seasonally adjusted.
January 2001 – November 2015
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 1 2 3 4 5
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Hordaland, Møre og Romsdal, Rogaland and Vest-Agder Rest of the country
Sources: NAV and Norges Bank 21
Annual wages
22
Annual change. Percent. 1995 - 2018
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 Consumer prices Real wages
Sources: TBU, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
CPI-ATE. Total and by supplier sector
Twelve-month change. Percent. January 2012 – March 2016
-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5
-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Imported consumer goods
Domestically produced goods and services CPI-ATE
Projections MPR 4/15
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank 23
Baseline projections in Monetary Policy Report 4/15
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank 24
Output gap Key policy rate
CPI-ATE Exchange rate (I-44)
0 1 2 3
0 1 2 3
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
-2 -1 0 1 2
-2 -1 0 1 2
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
0 1 2 3 4
0 1 2 3 4
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
85 90 95 100 105 110
85 90 95 100 105 110
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 MPR 3/15 MPR 4/15
Factors behind changes in the interest rate forecast since MPR 3/15
25 -2 -1 0 1 2
-2 -1 0 1 2
2016 Q1 2016 Q3 2017 Q1 2017 Q3 2018 Q1 2018 Q3 Lending margins Foreign interest rates
Public demand Exchange rate
Private demand Change in interest rate forecast
Source: Norges Bank
