WILL DEBT BE REDUCED?
DEPUTY GOVERNOR JON NICOLAISEN
The Norwegian Academy of Science and Letters, 9 April 2019Record-high private debt
Percent of GDP
Source: Norge Bank.
1Ratio of total debt (C3) to GDP for Norway
0 50 100 150 200 250
1830 1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010
Total debt has barely budged
Western Europe and North America. Percent of GDP
Sources: IMF Global Debt Database and Norges Bank
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014
North America
Western Europe
High private debt in Northern Europe
Percent of GDP
Sources: IMF Global Debt Database and Norges Bank
1Unweighted averages for each group
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016
Scandinavia and the Netherlands Greece, Italy, Ireland, Portugal and Spain
France, Germany,
Switzerland and
Austria
Substantial wealth – different composition
Net financial wealth as a percentage of GDP
1. 2017
Sources: Statistics Denmark, Statistics Norway, Statistics Sweden and Norges Bank
1GDP for Norway overall. Households include non-profit foundations
-50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400
Norway Sweden Denmark
Households
Public sector
Strong house price inflation
Real price per square metre. National average in 2015 NOK
Source: Norges Bank
0 10 000 20 000 30 000 40 000
1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
How much housing can an average wage buy?
Number of square metres of housing for an average wage
Source: Norges Bank
0 10 20 30 40
1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Entire country
Oslo
Higher debt – lower interest burden
Household debt as a percentage of disposable income. Interest expense as a percentage of after-tax income
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank.
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
0 50 100 150 200 250
1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013 2018
Debt (left-hand scale)
Interest burden (right-hand scale)
WILL DEBT BE REDUCED?
DEPUTY GOVERNOR JON NICOLAISEN
The Norwegian Academy of Science and Letters,9 April 2019
