200820092010201120122013201490929496981001021041061081109092949698100102104106108110Chart 1.1 GDP. Seasonally adjusted volume index.2008 Q1=100. 2008 Q1 − 2014 Q3

(1)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 90

92 94 96 98 100 102 104 106 108 110

90 92 94 96 98 100 102 104 106 108 110 Chart 1.1 GDP. Seasonally adjusted volume index.

2008 Q1=100. 2008 Q1 − 2014 Q3

Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

US

Euro area

UK

Sweden

Japan

(2)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 0

50 100 150 200 250

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 Chart 1.2 Crude oil and base metals prices.

¹⁾

January 2010 − December 2017

²⁾³⁾

1) USD per barrel for oil and index for base metals.

2) The most recent daily observation (5 December 2014) is used for oil.

3) Forward prices from 5 December 2014.

Base metals (left-hand scale) Oil (right-hand scale)

Oil futures prices MPR 4/14, (right-hand scale)

Oil futures prices MPR 3/14, (right-hand scale)

(3)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 0

1 2 3 4 5

0 1 2 3 4 5 Chart 1.3 GDP for trading partners. Volume.

Four−quarter change. Percent. 2010 Q1 − 2017 Q4

¹⁾

1) Projections at different points in time (broken lines). Projections from 2014 Q4 for MPR 4/14.

MPR 1/14

MPR 2/14

MPR 3/14

MPR 4/14

(4)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

−1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

−1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Chart 1.4 Consumer prices.

Twelve−month change. Percent. January 2010 − November 2014

¹⁾

1) To end−October 2014 for US, UK and Sweden.

Sources: Eurostat and Bureau of Labour Statistics

US

Euro area

UK

Sweden

(5)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Chart 1.5 Yields on 10−year government bonds.

Percent. 1 January 2010 − 5 December 2014

Source: Bloomberg

US

Germany

UK

Spain

Italy

(6)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

−1 0 1 2 3

−1 0 1 2 3 Chart 1.6 Policy rates and estimated forward rates at 11 September 2014 and 5 December 2014.

¹⁾

Percent. 1 January 2010 − 1 October 2017

²⁾

1) Broken lines show estimated forward rates at 11 September 2014. Thin lines show forward rates at 5 December 2014. Forward rates are based on Overnight Index Swap (OIS) rates.

2) Daily data from 1 January 2010 and quarterly data from 2015 Q1.

3) EONIA for the euro area from 2015 Q1.

Sources: Bloomberg and Norges Bank

US

Euro area

³⁾

UK

Sweden

(7)

2010Q1 2011Q1 2012Q1 2013Q1 2014Q1 2015Q1 2016Q1 2017Q1 0

0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 Chart 1.7 Money market rates for trading partners in MPR 3/14 and MPR 4/14.

¹⁾

Percent. 2010 Q1 − 2017 Q4

1) Broken blue and yellow lines show estimated forward rates at 5 December 2014 and 11 September 2014, respectively.

Sources: Bloomberg and Norges Bank

MPR 3/14

MPR 4/14

(8)

2012 2013 2014 100

95 90 85 80

70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 Chart 1.8 Oil price and import−weighted exchange rate index (I−44).

¹⁾

1 January 2012 − 5 December 2014

1) A positive slope denotes a stronger krone exchange rate.

I−44 (left−hand scale) I−44, MPR 3/14

Oil price (right−hand scale)

(9)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 0

1 2 3 4 5 6

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Chart 1.9 Residential mortgage lending rates

¹⁾

and funding costs.

Percent. 1 January 2010 − 5 December 2014

1) The interest rate on lines of credit secured on dwellings provided by all banks and mortgage companies in Norway.

2) Estimated using weighted interest rates on covered bonds outstanding and weighted deposit rates.

3) Credit lines.

Sources: DNB Markets, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

Key policy rate

Spread between money market rate and key policy rate Risk premium on 5−year covered bonds

Estimated cost of mortgage financing

²⁾

Residential mortgage rate

³⁾

(10)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

−6

−4

−2 0 2 4 6 8

−6

−4

−2 0 2 4 6 8 Chart 1.10 Norges Bank’s regional network indicator for output growth preceding three months. Annualised. Percent. January 2008 − October 2014

Source: Norges Bank

Manufacturing

Construction

Retail

Services

(11)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 0

1 2 3 4

0 1 2 3 4 Chart 1.11 Unemployment rate. LFS

¹⁾

and NAV.

²⁾

Seasonally adjusted. Percent. January 2008 − November 2014

1) Labour Force Survey.

2) Norwegian Labour and Welfare Administration.

Sources: Statistics Norway, NAV and Norges Bank

LFS NAV

NAV including employment schemes

(12)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 50000

55000 60000 65000 70000 75000 80000

50000 55000 60000 65000 70000 75000 80000 Chart 1.12 Number of vacancies and number of unemployed

¹⁾

. Seasonally adjusted 2010 Q1 − 2014 Q3

1) Registered unemployed.

Sources: Statistics Norway, NAV and Norges Bank

Vacancies

Unemployed

(13)

2008 2010 2012 2014 10

20 30 40

10 20 30 40 Chart 1.13 TNS Gallup savings indicator

Proportion that will save or repay loans if the financial position of the household improves.

Percent. 2008 Q1 − 2014 Q4

Source: TNS Gallup

(14)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

−4

−2 0 2 4 6 8

−20

−10 0 10 20 30 40 Chart 1.14 Private consumption and consumer confidence

Private consumption: Four−quarter change. Percent.

TNS Gallup and Opinion

¹⁾

: Indices.2008 Q1 − 2014 Q4

²⁾

1) TNS Gallup consumer barometer and Opinion CCI.

For CCI the average of monthly figures is used as quarterly figures.

2) To end−2014 Q3 for private consumption and November for CCI Sources: TNS Gallup, Opinion, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

Private consumption (left−hand scale)

TNS Gallup (right−hand scale)

Opinion (CCI) (right−hand scale)

(15)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

−1 0 1 2 3

−5 0 5 10 15 Chart 1.15 House prices. Twelve-month change and seasonally adjusted monthly change. Percent. January 2010 − November 2014

Sources: Eiendom Norge, Eiendomsverdi and Finn.no

House prices, seasonally adjusted monthly change (left-hand scale)

House prices, twelve-month change (right-hand scale)

(16)

2008 2010 2012 2014

−10

−5 0 5 10 15 20

−10

−5 0 5 10 15 20 Chart 1.16 Investment as reported by Norges Bank’s regional network

Percent. Expected growth next 12 months. Aggregated. January 2008 − October 2014

Source: Norges Bank

(17)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 0

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Chart 1.17 Capacity constraints and labour availability

¹⁾

as reported by Norges Bank’s regional network. Percent. January 2008 − October 2014

1) Share of contacts that will have some or considerable problems accommodating an increase in demand and the share of contacts where production is constrained by labour supply.

Source: Norges Bank

Capacity constraints

Labour availability

(18)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 0

1 2 3 4 5

0 1 2 3 4 5 Chart 1.18 CPI and CPI−ATE.

¹⁾

Twelve−month change.

Percent. January 2010 − March 2015

²⁾

1) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products.

2) Projections for November 2014 − March 2015 (broken lines).

Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

CPI

CPI−ATE

(19)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

−2.5 0 2.5 5

−2.5 0 2.5 5 Chart 1.19 CPI−ATE.

¹⁾

Total and by supplier sector.

Twelve−month change. Percent. January 2010 − March 2015

²⁾

2) Projections for November 2014 − March 2015 (broken lines).

3) Norges Bank’s estimates.

CPI−ATE

Imported consumer goods

Domestically produced goods and services

³⁾

Projections MPR 3/14

(20)

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

−1.5

−1

−0.5 0 0.5 1

−1.5

−1

−0.5 0 0.5 1 Chart 1.20 Indicator of external price impulses to imported consumer goods

measured in foreign currency. Annual change. Percent. 2003 − 2014

¹⁾

1) Projections for 2014.

Source: Norges Bank

(21)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 0

0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5

30% 50% 70% 90%

Chart 1.21 CPI−ATE

¹⁾

. Actual figures, baseline scenario and projections from SAM

²⁾

with fan chart. Four−quarter change. Percent. 2010 Q1 − 2015 Q1

³⁾

1) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy prices.

2) System for averaging short−term models.

3) Projections for 2014 Q4 − 2015 Q1 (broken lines).

CPI−ATE

MPR 4/14

SAM

(22)

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 0

50 100 150 200 250

0 50 100 150 200 250 Chart 1.22 Structural non−oil deficit and 4% of the Government Pension

Fund Global. Constant 2015 prices. In billions of NOK. 2003 − 2017

¹⁾

1) Projections for 2014 − 2017.

Sources: Ministry of Finance and Norges Bank

Structural non−oil deficit

4% of GPFG

(23)

2008 2011 2014 2017

−20

−10 0 10 20

−20

−10 0 10 20 Chart 1.23 Petroleum investment.

Volume. Annual change. Percent. 2008 − 2017

¹⁾

1) Projections for 2014 − 2017 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

MPR 4/14

MPR 3/14

(24)

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 0

50 100 150 200 250 300

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Chart 1.24 Petroleum investment.

Constant 2014 prices. In billions of NOK. 2003 − 2017

¹⁾

1) Projections for 2014−2017. Value figures from the investment intentions survey are deflated by the price index for petroleum investments in the national accounts.

Fields in production Field development

Exploration Pipelines and onshore activities

Shutdown and removal

(25)

1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 0

2 4 6 8 10 12 14

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Chart 2.1 10−year moving average

¹⁾

and variation

²⁾

in CPI.

Annual change. Percent. 1981 − 2013

1) The moving average is calculated 10 years back.

2) The band around the CPI is the variation in the CPI in the average period, measured by +/− one standard deviation.

Variation

Inflation target

CPI

(26)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 0

2.5 5

0 2.5 5 Chart 2.2 Expected consumer price inflation 2 and 5 years ahead.

¹⁾

Percent. 2008 Q1 − 2014 Q4

1) Average of expectations of employer/employee organisations and economists in the financial industry and academia.

Sources: TNS Gallup and Opinion

Expected inflation 5 years ahead

Expected inflation 2 years ahead

(27)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 0

1 2 3 4 5 6

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

30% 50% 70% 90%

Chart 2.3 GDP for mainland Norway. Actual figures, baseline scenario and projections from SAM

¹⁾

with fan chart.

Four−quarter change. Volume. Seasonally adjusted. Percent. 2010 Q1 − 2015 Q1

²⁾

1) System for averaging short−term models.

GDP, mainland Norway MPR 4/14

SAM

(28)

2011 2013 2015 0

0.5 1 1.5 2

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 Chart 2.4 GDP mainland Norway

¹⁾

and Norges Bank’s regional network’s indicator for output growth past three months and expected output growth next six months.

Percent. 2011 Q1 − 2015 Q2

²⁾

1) Seasonally adjusted quarterly change. Volume.

2) Last observation regional network is October 2014. Last observation for GDP growth is 2014 Q3.

GDP mainland Norway MPR 3/14

MPR 4/14

Regional network

(29)

Construction Export industry

Domestically oriented industry

Oil industry suppliers

Household services

Commercial services

Retail trade

−4

−3

−2

−1 0 1 2 3 4

−4

−3

−2

−1 0 1 2 3 4

Chart 2.5 Expected output growth next six months in Norges Bank’s regional network Annualised. Percent

Source: Norges Bank

August 2014

October 2014

(30)

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 80

90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170

80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 Chart 2.6 Unit labour costs in common currency

¹⁾

2000 Q1=100. 2000 Q1 − 2015 Q1

²⁾

1) The euro is used as common currency in the calculations.

2) Projections 2014 Q4 − 2015 Q1 (broken lines). The euro is assumed to move in line with assumptions regarding the I−44 in MPR 4/14.

Sources: OECD, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

Norway

Sweden

Denmark

UK

Euro area

Germany

(31)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

30% 50% 70% 90%

Chart 2.7a Projected key policy rate in the baseline scenario with fan chart. Percent. 2008 Q1 − 2017 Q4

¹⁾

1) Projections for 2014 Q4 − 2017 Q4 (broken line).

Source: Norges Bank

(32)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

−4

−3

−2

−1 0 1 2 3 4 5

−4

−3

−2

−1 0 1 2 3 4 5

30% 50% 70% 90%

Chart 2.7b Projected output gap

¹⁾

in the baseline scenario with fan chart. Percent. 2008 Q1 − 2017 Q4

1) The output gap measures the percentage deviation between mainland GDP and projected potential mainland GDP.

Source: Norges Bank

(33)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

−1 0 1 2 3 4 5

30% 50% 70% 90%

Chart 2.7c Projected CPI in the baseline scenario with fan chart. Four−quarter change. Percent. 2008 Q1 − 2017 Q4

¹⁾

(34)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

−1 0 1 2 3 4 5

30% 50% 70% 90%

Chart 2.7d Projected CPI−ATE

¹⁾

in the baseline scenario with fan chart. Four−quarter change. Percent. 2008 Q1 − 2017 Q4

²⁾

(35)

3/07 1/082/08

3/08

17 Dec 08

1/092/09

3/091/102/103/101/11 2/11

3/11

1/12 2/12 3/12

1/13 2/13

3/13 4/13

1/14 2/14

3/14 4/14

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Chart 2.8 Interval for the key policy rate at the end of each strategy period, actual developments and projected key policy rate in the baseline scenario.

Percent. 1 January 2008 − 31 December 2017

Source: Norges Bank

MPR 2/14

MPR 3/14

MPR 4/14

(36)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Chart 2.9 Key policy rate, three−month money market rate

¹⁾

, interest rate on loans to households

²⁾

and foreign money market rates in the baseline scenario.

Percent. 2008 Q1 − 2017 Q4

³⁾

1) Key policy rate in the baseline scenario plus premiums in the Norwegian money market. The calculations are based on the assumption that announced interest rate changes are priced into the money market.

2) Average interest rate on all loans to households from banks and mortgage companies.

Key policy rate

Three−month money market rate Lending rate, households

Foreign money market rates

(37)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

−4

−3

−2

−1 0 1 2 3 4

−1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Chart 2.10 Inflation and output gap in the baseline scenario.

Percent. 2008 Q1 − 2017 Q4

1) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products. Projections for 2014 Q4 − 2017 Q4 (broken line).

Output gap (left−hand scale)

CPI−ATE

¹⁾

(right−hand scale)

(38)

1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017

−15

−10

−5 0 5 10 15

−15

−10

−5 0 5 10 15 Chart 2.11 Household saving and net lending as a share of disposable income.

Percent. 1993 − 2017

¹⁾

1) Projections for 2014 − 2017 (broken lines).

Saving ratio

Saving ratio excl. dividend income

Net lending ratio excl. dividend income

(39)

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 0

2 4 6 8

0 2 4 6 8 Chart 2.12 Household consumption

¹⁾

and real disposable income

²⁾

.

Annual change. Percent. 2003 − 2017

³⁾

1) Includes consumption for non−profit organisations. Volume.

2) Excluding dividend income. Including income for non−profit organisations.

3) Projections for 2014 − 2017.

Household consumption Household real disposable income

(40)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

−15

−10

−5 0 5 10 15

−15

−10

−5 0 5 10 15 Chart 2.13 Export market growth

¹⁾

and growth in Norwegian mainland exports.

Annual change. Percent. 2008 − 2017

²⁾

1) Export market growth is calculated as import growth among 25 trading partners 2) Projections for 2014 − 2017 (broken lines).

Export market growth

Export growth

(41)

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

−10

−5 0 5 10 15 20

−10

−5 0 5 10 15 20 Chart 2.14 Household debt

¹⁾

and house prices.

Four−quarter change. Percent. 2003 Q1 − 2017 Q4

²⁾

1) Domestic credit to households (C2).

Sources: Statistics Norway, Eiendom Norge, Eiendomsverdi, Finn.no and Norges Bank

House prices

Credit

(42)

2003 2007 2011 2015 0

2 4 6 8 10 12

0 50 100 150 200 250 Chart 2.15 Household debt ratio

¹⁾

and interest burden.

²⁾

Percent. 2003 Q1 − 2017 Q4

³⁾

1) Loan debt as a percentage of disposable income adjusted for estimated reinvested dividend income for 2003 – 2005 and redemption/reduction of equity capital for 2006 Q1 – 2012 Q3.

2) Interest expenses as a percentage of disposable income adjusted for estimated reinvested dividend income for 2003 – 2005 and redemption/reduction of equity capital for 2006 – 2012 Q3 plus interest expenses.

Interest burden (left−hand scale)

Debt ratio (right−hand scale)

(43)

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 105

100 95 90 85 80

−2

−1 0 1 2 3 4 5 Chart 2.16 Three−month money market rate differential between Norway

¹⁾

and trading partners and import−weighted exchange rate index (I−44).

²⁾

January 2003 − December 2017

³⁾

2) A positive slope denotes a stronger krone exchange rate.

3) Projections 2015 Q1 − 2017 Q4 (broken lines).

I−44 (left−hand scale)

Three−month rate differential (right−hand scale)

(44)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Chart 2.17 Key policy rate and interest rates based on simple monetary

policy rules.

¹⁾

Percent. 2008 Q1 − 2015 Q2

1) The calculations are based on Norges Bank’s projections for the output gap, growth gap, consumer prices (CPI−ATE) and three−month money market rates for trading partners. To ensure comparability with the key policy rate, the simple rules are adjusted for risk premiums in

three−month money market rates.

Source: Norges Bank

Key policy rate in the baseline scenario Rule with external interest rates Growth rule

Model−robust rule

Taylor rule

(45)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Chart 2.18 Three−month money market rate in the baseline scenario

¹⁾

and estimated forward rates.

²⁾

Percent. 2008 Q1 − 2017 Q4

2) Forward rates are based on money market rates and interest rate swaps. The red and blue bands show the highest and lowest rates in the period 29 August − 11 September 2014 and 24 November − 05 December 2014.

Estimated forward rates MPR 3/14

Estimated forward rates MPR 4/14

Money market rate in the baseline scenario MPR 3/14

Money market rate in the baseline scenario MPR 4/14

(46)

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Chart 2.19 Key policy rate and interest rate developments that follow from Norges Bank’s average pattern of interest rate setting.

¹⁾

Percent. 2004 Q1 − 2015 Q2

1) Interest rate movements are explained by developments in inflation, mainland GDP growth, wage growth and three−month money market rates among trading partners, as well as the interest rate in the preciding period. The equation is estimated over the period 1999 Q1 – 2014 Q3. See Norges Bank Staff Memo 3/2008 for further discussion.

Source: Norges Bank

90% confidence interval

Key policy rate in baseline scenario

(47)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 0

1 2 3 4 5 6

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Chart 2.20a Key policy rate. Percent. 2008 Q1 − 2017 Q4

Source: Norges Bank

Criterion 1

Criteria 1&2

Criteria 1,2&3

(48)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

−2

−1 0 1 2 3 4

−2

−1 0 1 2 3 4 Chart 2.20b Output gap. Percent. 2008 Q1 − 2017 Q4

Source: Norges Bank

Criterion 1

Criteria 1&2

Criteria 1,2&3

(49)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 0

1 2 3 4

0 1 2 3 4 Chart 2.20c CPI−ATE.

¹⁾

Four−quarter change. Percent. 2008 Q1 − 2017 Q4

Criterion 1

Criteria 1&2

Criteria 1,2&3

(50)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

30% 50% 70% 90%

Chart 2.21 Key policy rate in the baseline scenario in MPR 3/14 with fan chart and key policy rate in the baseline scenario in MPR 4/14 (red line).

Percent. 2008 Q1 − 2017 Q4

Source: Norges Bank

(51)

2015Q1 2015Q3 2016Q1 2016Q3 2017Q1 2017Q3

−2

−1 0 1 2

−2

−1 0 1 2 Chart 2.22 Factors behind changes in the interest rate forecast since MPR 3/14.

Cumulative contribution. Percentage points. 2015 Q1 − 2017 Q4

Source: Norges Bank

Change in interest rate forecast Exchange rate Interest rate margins Interest rates abroad

Demand Costs

Acceleration

(52)

1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 50

100 150 200

50 100 150 200 Chart 3.1 Total credit

¹⁾

mainland Norway as a share of mainland GDP.

²⁾

Percent. 1976 Q1 − 2014 Q3

1) The sum of C2 households and C3 non-financial enterprises in mainland Norway (all non-financial enterprises pre-1995). C3 comprises C2 and foreign debt.

2) The main revision of the national accounts was published at the same time as the figures for 2014 Q3.

This entails an upward revision of mainland GDP for the period 1995 Q1 − 2014 Q2. Foreign debt has also been revised up for the period 2012 Q2 − 2014 Q2. The series have been break-adjusted.

Sources: Statistics Norway, IMF and Norges Bank

Credit/GDP

Average (1976 Q1 − 2014 Q3)

Crises

(53)

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

−10 0 10 20 30

−10 0 10 20 30 Chart 3.2 Debt held by households and non-financial enterprises and mainland GDP.

Four-quarter growth.

¹⁾

Percent. 2000 Q1 − 2014 Q3

1) Change in stock of debt at the end of the quarter.

2) Sum of C2 non-financial enterprises and foreign debt in mainland Norway.

Nominal GDP, mainland Norway

Debt, non-financial enterprises (C3)

²⁾

Debt, households (C2)

(54)

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 0

10 20 30 40

0 50 100 150 200 250 Chart 3.3 Ratio of household debt to disposable income.

¹⁾

Percent. 1996 Q1 − 2014 Q3

1) Loan debt for households and non-profit organisations as a percentage of disposable income, adjusted for estimated reinvested dividend income for 2000 – 2005 and redemption/reduction of equity capital for 2006 Q1 – 2012 Q3.

2) Figures for 2014 Q3 have been estimated on the basis of four-quarter growth in disposable income after Statistics Norway’s main revision. Historical data have not been revised.

3) Change in stock of debt at the end of the quarter. Last observation 2014 Q2.

Four-quarter growth in disposable income

²⁾

(left-hand scale)

Four-quarter growth in household debt

³⁾

(left-hand scale)

Debt ratio (right-hand scale)

(55)

1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 50

100 150 200

50 100 150 200 Chart 3.4 House prices

¹⁾

relative to disposable income

²⁾

.

Indexed. 1998 Q4 = 100. 1979 Q1 − 2014 Q3

1) Quarterly figures pre-1990 are calculated by linear interpolation of annual figures.

2) Adjusted for estimated reinvested dividend income for 2000 – 2005 and redemption/reduction of equity capital for 2006 Q1 – 2012 Q3. Figures for 2014 Q3 have been estimated on the basis of four-quarter growth in disposable income after Statistics Norway’s main revision. Historical data have not been revised.

Sources: Statistics Norway, Eiendom Norge, Norwegian Association of Real Estate Agents (NEF), Finn.no, Eiendomsverdi and Norges Bank

House prices/disposable income

Average (1979 Q1 − 2014 Q3)

Crises

(56)

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 0

20 40 60 80 100

0 5 10 15 20 25 Chart 3.5 Housing turnover and homes for sale in 1000s of dwellings.

Selling times in days. Seasonally adjusted. January 2004 − November 2014

Sources: Eiendom Norge, Finn.no and Eiendomsverdi

Turnover past 12 months (left-hand scale) Selling times (left-hand scale)

Homes for sale on Finn.no (right-hand scale)

(57)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

−40

−30

−20

−10 0 10 20 30 40

−40

−30

−20

−10 0 10 20 30 40 Chart 3.6 New home sales. Four-quarter growth. Percent. 2010 Q1 − 2014 Q3

Source: Norwegian Home Builders’ Association

(58)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

−80

−60

−40

−20 0 20 40 60 80

−80

−60

−40

−20 0 20 40 60 80 Chart 3.7 Changes in credit demand and banks’ credit standards past quarter, and expected change next quarter.

¹⁾

Households. Percent. 2007 Q4 − 2014 Q4

1) Negative figures denote lower demand or tighter credit standards.

Source: Norges Bank

Change in demand past quarter Next quarter

Change in credit standards past quarter Next quarter

(59)

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

−15 0 15 30 45

−15 0 15 30 45 Chart 3.8 Credit from selected funding sources to Norwegian non-financial

enterprises. Twelve-month growth.

¹⁾

Percent. January 2003 − October 2014

1) Change in stock of debt.

2) Growth based on transactions. To end-September 2014.

Domestic bank debt

Domestic notes and bonds

Foreign debt (mainland enterprises)

²⁾

(60)

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 0

400 800 1200 1600

0 400 800 1200 1600 Chart 3.9 Domestic credit to Norwegian non-financial enterprises (C2).

Stocks of debt. In billions of NOK. January 2003 − October 2014

1) In Statistics Norway’s statistics Export Credit Norway is classified as "other sources" and Eksportfinans under "mortgage companies". The classification in the chart has been changed to include both Eksportfinans and Export Credit Norway as mortgage companies.

Banks and mortgage companies

¹⁾

Bonds

Notes

Other

(61)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

−80

−60

−40

−20 0 20 40 60 80

−80

−60

−40

−20 0 20 40 60 80 Chart 3.10 Changes in credit demand and banks’ credit standards past quarter, and expected change next quarter.

¹⁾

Enterprises. Percent. 2007 Q4 − 2014 Q4

1) Negative figures denote lower demand or tighter credit standards.

Source: Norges Bank

Change in demand past quarter Next quarter

Change in credit standards past quarter Next quarter

(62)

1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 50

100 150 200

50 100 150 200 Chart 3.11 Real commercial property prices.

¹⁾

Indexed. 1998 = 100. 1981 Q2 − 2014 Q3

1) Estimated market prices for centrally located high-standard office premises in Oslo deflated by the GDP deflator for mainland Norway.

2) The main revision of the national accounts for the period 1995 Q1 − 2014 Q2 was published at the same time as the figures for 2014 Q3. The GDP deflator has been break-adjusted.

Sources: Dagens Næringsliv, OPAK, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

Real commercial property prices

²⁾

Average (1981 Q2 − 2014 Q3)

Crises

(63)

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Chart 3.12 Required yield

¹⁾

for prime office space in Oslo and 10-year swap rate

²⁾

. Percent. 2001 H1 − 2014 H2

1) Yield is defined as net rental income as a percentage of a property’s market price. Based on assessments by Dagens Næringsliv’s expert panel for commercial property.

2) Semi-annual swap rate is calculated as an average of daily rates. The swap rate for 2014 H2 is the average of the daily rates in the period 1 July − 5 December 2014.

Sources: Dagens Næringsliv and Bloomberg

Required yield

10-year swap rate

(64)

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

−30

−20

−10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

−30

−20

−10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Chart 3.13 Growth in commercial property values based on different calculation methods. Annual growth. 2000 H1 − 2013 H2

1) CBD stands for "Central Business District".

Sources: Dagens Næringsliv, OPAK and Investment Property Databank

OPAK: Office buildings of high standard (located in central Oslo) IPD: Office buildings Oslo CBD

¹⁾

IPD: Office buildings nationwide

(65)

1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 0

10 20 30 40 50 60

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Chart 3.14 Banks’

¹⁾

wholesale funding as a share of total assets.

²⁾

Percent. 1976 Q1 − 2014 Q3

1) All banks and covered bond mortgage companies in Norway excluding branches and subsidiaries of foreign banks in Norway.

Source: Norges Bank

Wholesale funding/total assets

Average (1976 Q1 − 2014 Q3)

Crises

(66)

1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 0

20 40 60 80

0 20 40 60 80 Chart 3.15 Decomposition of banks’

¹⁾

wholesale funding share.

As a percentage of total assets. 1991 Q4 − 2014 Q3

2) Deposits from credit institutions include deposits from central banks.

Source: Norges Bank

Notes in NOK

Deposits from credit institutions in NOK Bonds in NOK

Other debt in NOK Notes in foreign currency

Deposits from credit institutions in foreign currency

²⁾

Bonds in foreign currency

Other debt in foreign currency

(67)

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 0

50 100 150 200 250 300

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Chart 3.16 Average risk premiums

¹⁾

on new and outstanding bond debt for

Norwegian banks. Basis points. January 2006 − November 2014

1) Difference against 3-month NIBOR.

Sources: Bloomberg, Stamdata, DNB Markets and Norges Bank

Risk premium new bank bonds

Risk premium outstanding bank bonds

Risk premium new covered bonds

Risk premium outstanding covered bonds

(68)

Chart 3.17 Banks’ qualitative assessment of access to and premiums on wholesale funding. ¹⁾ January 2011 – November 2014

1) Average of reporting banks in Norges Bank’s liquidity survey. For short-term funding in foreign currency, only banks active in these markets are included. Red indicates reduced access and higher premiums, grey indicators unchanged, green indicates increased access and lower premiums.

Source: Norges Bank Access to funding

Short-term NOK

Short-term foreign currency Long-term NOK

Long-term foreign currency Risk premiums on funding

Short-term NOK

Short-term foreign currency Long-term NOK

Long-term foreign currency

2011 2012 2013 2014

(69)

1 10 100 1000 10000 0

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 Chart 3.18 Banking groups’

¹⁾

Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratios.

Percent. Total assets.

²⁾

In billions of NOK. At 30 September 2014

³⁾

1) Banking groups with total assets in excess of NOK 20bn, excluding branches of foreign banks in Norway.

2) Logarithmic scale.

3) Assuming that profits to and including 2014 Q3 are added in full to CET1 capital.

Sources: Banking groups’ quarterly reports and Norges Bank

Systemically important banks

The largest regional savings banks Other large banks

CET1 requirement from 1 July 2016 including a countercyclical buffer of 1 percent

CET1 requirement from 1 July 2016 including a countercyclical buffer of

1 percent and a buffer for systemic importance of 2 percent

(70)

1 July 2013 1 July 2014 1 July 2015 1 July 2016 0

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

4.5 2.5 2.0

4.5 2.5 3.0

4.5 2.5 3.0 1.0 1.0

4.5 2.5 3.0 2.0 1.0 Chart 3.19 Common Equity Tier 1 capital requirements in the new regulatory framework. Percent. 1 July 2013 – 1 July 2016

Sources: Ministry of Finance and Norges Bank

Maximum countercyclical buffer Countercyclical buffer

Buffer for systemically important banks Systemic risk buffer

Conservation buffer

Minimum requirement

(71)

1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011

−30

−20

−10 0 10 20 30 40

−30

−20

−10 0 10 20 30 40 Chart 3.20a Credit gap. Total credit

¹⁾

mainland Norway as a share of mainland GDP. Deviation from estimated trends. Percentage points. 1983 Q1 − 2014 Q3

1) The sum of C2 households and C3 non-financial enterprises in mainland Norway (all non-financial enterprises pre-1995). C3 comprises C2 and foreign debt.

2) One-sided Hodrick-Prescott filter estimated on data augmented with a simple projection. Lambda = 400 000.

3) One-sided Hodrick-Prescott filter. Lambda = 400 000.

10-year rolling average Augmented HP filter

²⁾

One-sided HP filter

³⁾

Variation

Crises

(72)

1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011

−40

−30

−20

−10 0 10 20 30 40

−40

−30

−20

−10 0 10 20 30 40 Chart 3.20b House price gap. House prices

¹⁾

relative to disposable income

²⁾

. Deviation from estimated trends. Percent. 1983 Q1 − 2014 Q3

1) Quarterly pre-1990 figures are calculated by linear interpolation of annual figures.

2) Adjusted for estimated reinvested dividend income for 2000 – 2005 and redemption/reduction of equity capital for 2006 Q1 – 2012 Q3.

Sources: Statistics Norway, Eiendom Norge, Norwegian Association of Real Estate Agents (NEF), Finn.no, Eiendomsverdi and Norges Bank

Recursive average Augmented HP filter

³⁾

One-sided HP filter

⁴⁾

Variation

Crises

(73)

1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011

−40

−20 0 20 40 60 80

−40

−20 0 20 40 60 80 Chart 3.20c Commercial property price gap. Real commercial property prices

¹⁾

as deviation from estimated trends. Percent. 1983 Q1 − 2014 Q3

1) Estimated market prices for office premises in Oslo deflated by the GDP deflator for mainland Norway.

Sources: Dagens Næringsliv, OPAK, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

Recursive average

Augmented HP filter

²⁾

One-sided HP filter

³⁾

Variation

Crises

(74)

1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011

−20

−15

−10

−5 0 5 10 15 20 25

−20

−15

−10

−5 0 5 10 15 20 25 Chart 3.20d Wholesale funding gap. Banks’

¹⁾

wholesale funding as a share of total assets.

²⁾

Deviation from estimated trends. Percentage points. 1983 Q1 − 2014 Q3

Source: Norges Bank

10-year rolling average Augmented HP filter

³⁾

One-sided HP filter

⁴⁾

Variation

Crises

(75)

1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 0

0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 Chart 3.21 Estimated crisis probabilities from various model specifications.

1980 Q1 − 2014 Q3

1) Model variation is represented by the highest and lowest crisis probability based on different model specifications and trend calculations.

Source: Norges Bank

Model variation

¹⁾

Crises

(76)

1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 0

0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 Chart 3.22 Reference rates for the countercyclical capital buffer under alternative trend estimates. Percent. 1983 Q1 − 2014 Q3

Buffer based on deviation from trend using augmented HP filter

¹⁾

Buffer based on deviation from trend using one-sided HP filter

²⁾

(77)

0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Public sector investment

Residential investment Nonresidential investment

Chart 1 US. Public sector, residential and nonresidential investment. Index.

2005 Q1 = 100. 2005 Q1 – 2014 Q3

Source: Thomson Reuters

(78)

90 95 100 105 110

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Germany France Italy Spain

Chart 2 GDP in some euro area countries.

Index. 2008 Q1 = 100. 2008 Q1 – 2014 Q3

Source: Thomson Reuters

(79)

-1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Quarterly change

Four-quarter average Chart 3 Euro area. Real gross disposable income of households.

Percentage change from previous quarter. 2005 Q1 – 2014 Q2

Source: Thomson Reuters

(80)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Germany

Spain France Italy

Euro area

Chart 4 Euro area. Borrowing costs for enterprises.

Three-month moving average of ECB's cost-of-borrowing indicator for non-financial corporations. January 2005 – October 2014

Sources: ECB and Norges Bank

(81)

0.90 0.95 1.00 1.05 1.10 1.15 1.20

Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5

1975 1982 1993 2009

Chart 5 Euro area. Level of investment around recessions. Index. Set at 1 at trough of business cycle¹⁾. Norges Bank's projections for 2014

1) CEPR has dated the most recent peak at 2011 Q3. The most recent trough has yet to be identified.

Sources: CEPR, Eurostat and Norges Bank

(82)

-10 0 10 20 30 40 50

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Industry Infrastructure Real estate Total

Chart 6 Fixed asset investment in China. Value. Three-month moving average.

Sources: CEIC and Norges Bank

(83)

0 5 10 15 20

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Real wage growth EM excl. China¹⁾

Real wage growth China

Chart 7 Emerging markets. Real wage growth. Four-quarter change.

Four-quarter moving average. Percent. 2005 Q1 – 2014 Q3

1) Brazil, Russia, Indonesia, Thailand, Hong Kong and Singapore. GDP-weighted.

Sources: CEIC, Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

(84)

-2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

GDP growth Brazil GDP growth Russia Inflation Brazil

Inflation Russia

Chart 8 Brazil and Russia. Annualised quarterly GDP growth. Three- quarter moving average. Twelve-month rise in consumer prices. Percent.

January 2010 – November 2014

Sources: CEIC and Norges Bank

(85)

60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140

Nov-10 Nov-11 Nov-12 Nov-13 Nov-14

Spot price

Futures prices. Delivery December 2019

Chart 1 Spot and futures prices for oil. USD per barrel Brent Blend.

22 November 2010 – 5 December 2014

Source: Thomson Reuters

(86)

-2 0 2 4 6 8

2011 2012 2013 2014

Outages non-OPEC Outages OPEC Production growth

Chart 2 Global oil production outages. Accumulated growth in US oil production. Million barrels per day. January 2011 – October 2014

Sources: EIA and Norges Bank

(87)

0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Economist index base metals Oil price, Brent Blend in USD Chart 3 Price for crude oil and base metals.

Index. January 2011 = 100. January 2004 – December 2014

Source: Thomson Reuters

(88)

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

−2.5 0 2.5 5

−2.5 0 2.5 5 Chart 1 CPI−AE

¹⁾

and frequency−based price indices.

Twelve−month change. Percent. January 2003 − October 2014

1) CPI excluding energy products.

CPI−AE

Sticky price sectors

Flexible price sectors (ex energy)

(89)

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

−2.5 0 2.5 5

−2.5 0 2.5 5 Chart 2 Expected annual change in CPI one and two years ahead

¹⁾

and frequency−based price indices (four−quarter change) Percent. 2003 Q1 − 2014 Q4

²⁾

1) The grey band shows the interval between the highest and lowest expectations of annual change in CPI one and two years ahead of business leaders, employer/employee organizations and economists in the financial industry and academia 2) October 2014 is the latest observation for the frequency−based price indices.

Sources: Opinion and Norges Bank