Chart 1.1 GDP trading partners in MPR 3/12 and 1/13. Four−quarter change.Percent. 2008 Q1 – 2014 Q4

(1)

Monetary Policy Report

with financial stability assessement 1/13

Charts

(2)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

−5

−4

−3

−2

−1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

−5

−4

−3

−2

−1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

MPR 3/12 MPR 1/13

Chart 1.1 GDP trading partners in MPR 3/12 and 1/13. Four−quarter change.

Percent. 2008 Q1 – 2014 Q4

Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

(3)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 0

1 2 3 4 5 6

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

MPR 3/12 MPR 1/13

Chart 1.2 Money market rates for trading partners

¹⁾

in MPR 3/12 and 1/13.

Percent. 2008 Q1 – 2016 Q4

1) Broken red and blue lines show estimated forward rates for trading partners as at

15 October and 8 March 2013. Forward rates are based on Overnight Index Swap (OIS) rates Source: Norges Bank

(4)

Jan−08Jul−08Jan−09Jul−09Jan−10Jul−10Jan−11Jul−11Jan−12Jul−12Jan−13 80

85

90

95

100

105

110

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

I−44

Projection MPR 3/12 Projection MPR 1/13

Chart 1.3 Import−weighted exchange rate index (I−44).

¹⁾

January 2008 – June 2013

1) A positive slope denotes a stronger krone exchange rate Source: Norges Bank

(5)

Jan−10 Jul−10 Jan−11 Jul−11 Jan−12 Jul−12 Jan−13 0

1 2 3 4 5 6

0 1 2 3 4 5

Key policy rate

6

Premium in the money market

Risk premium on 5−year covered bonds Residential mortgage rate (credit lines) Estimated cost of mortgage financing²⁾

Chart 1.4 Mortgage lending rates

¹⁾

and interest margins.

Percent. 1 January 2010 – 8 March 2012

1) The lending rate on lines of credit secured on dwellings provided by all banks and mortgage companies in Norway

2) Estimated using weighted interest rate on holdings of covered bonds and weighted deposit rate Sources: DNB Markets, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

(6)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

−2

−1 0 1 2 3 4

−2

−1 0 1 2 3 4

MPR 3/12 MPR 1/13

Chart 1.5 Projected output gap

¹⁾

in MPR 3/12 and 1/13.

Percent. 2008 Q1 – 2013 Q2

1) The output gap measures the percentage deviation between GDP mainland Norway and projected potential GDP mainland Norway

Source: Norges Bank

(7)

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

−2.5 0 2.5 5 7.5

CPI 20% trimmed mean

CPI−ATE¹⁾ CPIXE²⁾

CPIM³⁾

Chart 1.6 Consumer prices. 12−month change.

Percent. January 2004 – Febuary 2013

1) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products

2) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding temporary changes in energy prices. Real time figures. See Norges Bank Staff Memo 7/2008 and 3/2009

3) Model−based indicator of underlying inflation. See Norges Bank Economic Commentaries 5/2010 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

(8)

1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 0

2 4 6 8 10 12 14

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

Variation Inflation target CPI

Chart 1.7 Inflation. Moving 10−year average

¹⁾

and variation

²⁾

in CPI.

Percent. 1981 – 2012

1) The moving average is calculated 10 years back

2) The band around the CPI is the variation in the CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products in the average period, measured by +/− one standard deviation Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

(9)

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 0

2.5 5

0 2.5 5

Expected inflation 5 years ahead Expected inflation 2 years ahead

Chart 1.8 Expected consumer price inflation 2 and 5 years ahead.

¹⁾

Percent. 2003 Q1 – 2013 Q1

1) Average of expectations of employer/employee organisations and economists in the financial industry and academia

Sources: TNS Gallup and Opinion Perduco

(10)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

−2

−1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

−2

−1 0 1 2 3 4 5

CPI−ATE

6

Norwegian produced goods and services excluding house rent Imported consumer goods

House rent

Chart 1.9 CPI−ATE

¹⁾

by supplier sector.

Four−quarter change. Percent. 2008 Q1 – 2012 Q4

1) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

(11)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

30% 50% 70% 90%

Chart 1.10a Projected key policy rate in the baseline scenario with probability distribution. Percent. 2008 Q1 – 2016 Q4

Source: Norges Bank

(12)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

−4

−3

−2

−1 0 1 2 3 4 5

−4

−3

−2

−1 0 1 2 3 4 5

30% 50% 70% 90%

Chart 1.10b Projected output gap

¹⁾

in the baseline scenario with probability distribution. Percent. 2008 Q1 – 2016 Q4

1) The output gap measures the percentage deviation between mainland GDP and projected potential mainland GDP

Source: Norges Bank

(13)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

−1 0 1 2 3 4 5

30% 50% 70% 90%

Chart 1.10c Projected CPI in the baseline scenario with probability distribution. Four−quarter change. Percent. 2008 Q1 – 2016 Q4

Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

(14)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

−1 0 1 2 3 4 5

30% 50% 70% 90%

Chart 1.10d Projected CPIXE

¹⁾

in the baseline scenario with probability distribution. Four−quarter change. Percent. 2008 Q1 – 2016 Q4

1) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding temporary changes in energy prices. As from August 2008, the CPIXE is a real−time series. See Norges Bank Staff Memo

7/2008 and 3/2009 Source: Norges Bank

(15)

3/071/082/08

3/08

17 Dec 08

1/092/09

3/091/102/10 3/101/11 2/11

3/11

1/122/12 3/12

1/13

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

MPR 2/12 MPR 3/12 MPR 1/13

Chart 1.11 Interval for the key policy rate at the end of each strategy period, actual developments and projected key policy rate in the baseline scenario.

Percent. January 2008 – December 2016

Source: Norges Bank

(16)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Estimated forward rates MPR 3/12 Estimated forward rates MPR 1/13

Money market rates in the baseline scenario MPR 3/12 Money market rates in the baseline scenario MPR 1/13

Chart 1.12 Three−month money market rates in the baseline scenario

¹⁾

and estimated forward rates

²⁾

. Percent. 2008 Q1 – 2016 Q4

1) Key policy rate in the baseline scenario plus premiums in the Norwegian money market. The calculations are based on the assumption that announced interest rate changes are priced into the money market.

2) Forward rates are based on money market rates and interest rate swaps. The blue and red bands show the highest and lowest forward rates in the period 11 October – 25 October

and 25 February – 8 March 2013

(17)

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 0

1 2 3 4 5 6

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

Key policy rate

3−month money market rate Lending rate, households

Chart 1.13 Projected key policy rate, three−month money market rate and lending rates on household loans

¹⁾

. Percent. 2008 Q1 – 2016 Q3

1) Average lending rate from banks and mortgage companies on all household loans Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

(18)

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 80

85

90

95

100 105 −2

−1 0 1 2 3 4 5

I−44 (left−hand scale)

3−month rate differential (right−hand scale)

Chart 1.14 Three−month money market rate differential between Norway

¹⁾

and trading partners and the import−weighted exchange rate index (I−44)

²⁾

.

January 2003 – December 2016

³⁾

1) Key policy rate in the baseline scenario plus premiums in the Norwegian money market. The calculations are based on the assumption that announced interest rate changes are priced into the money market

2) A positive slope denotes a stronger krone exchange rate

3) Monthly figures from January 2003 and Norges Bank projections from 2013 Q1 Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

(19)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

−4

−3

−2

−1 0 1 2 3 4

−1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

Output gap (left−hand scale) CPIXE (right−hand scale)

Chart 1.15 Projected inflation

¹⁾

and output gap in the baseline scenario.

Percent. 2008 Q1 – 2016 Q4

1) CPIXE: CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding temporary changes in energy prices.

As from August 2008, the CPIXE is a real−time series. See Norges Bank Staff Memo 7/2008 and 3/2009

Source: Norges Bank

(20)

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

−15

−10

−5 0 5 10 15 20 25

−15

−10

−5 0 5 10 15 20 25

House prices Credit growth

Chart 1.16 Credit growth

¹⁾

and house prices.

12−month change. Percent. January 2004 – December 2016

²⁾

1) From January 1 2012 the Norwegian standard for institutional sector grouping was changed. For credit growth this implies a break in the series from March 2012

2) House prices up to and including Febuary 2013, credit growth up to and including January 2013.

Projections to 2016 Q4, where debt growth is change in inventory and house prices is year−on−year rise Sources: Statistics Norway, the real estate sector (NEF, EFF, Finn.no and ECON Pöyry) and Norges Bank

(21)

1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 0

2 4 6 8 10 12

0 50 100 150 200 250

Interest burden (left−hand scale) Debt burden (right−hand scale)

Chart 1.17 Household debt burden

¹⁾

and interest burden

²⁾

. Percent. Quarterly figures. 1988 Q1 – 2016 Q4

1) Loan debt as a percentage of disposable income adjusted for estimated reinvested dividend income for 2000 – 2005 and redemption/reduction of equity capital for 2006 – 2016 2) Interest expenses after tax as a percentage of disposable income adjusted for estimated reinvested dividend income for 2000 – 2005 and redemption/reduction of equity capital for 2006 – 2016 plus interest expenses

(22)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

30% 50% 70% 90%

Chart 1.18 Projected key policy rate in the baseline scenario and strategy interval with probability distribution. Percent. 2008 Q1 – 2016 Q4

Source: Norges Bank

(23)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Key policy rate in the baseline scenario Rule with foreign interest rates

Growth rule

Model−robust interest rate rule Taylor rule

Chart 1.19 Key policy rate and calculations based on simple monetary policy rules.

¹⁾

Percent. 2008 Q1 – 2013 Q2

1) The calculations are based on Norges Bank’s projections for the output gap, growth gap, consumer prices and 3−month money market rates among trading partners. To ensure comparability with the key policy rate, the simple rules are adjusted for risk premiums in

3−month money market rates Source: Norges Bank

(24)

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

90 percent confidence interval Key policy rate in baseline scenario

Chart 1.20 Key policy rate and interest rate developments that follow from Norges Bank’s average pattern of interest rate setting.

¹⁾

Percent. 2004 Q1 – 2013 Q2

1) Interest rate movements are explained by developments in inflation, mainland GDP growth, wage growth and 3−month money market rates among trading partners. The equation is estimated over the period 1999 Q1 – 2012 Q4. See Staff Memo 3/2008 for further discussion Source: Norges Bank

(25)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Criterion 1 Criteria 1&2 Criteria 1,2&3

Chart 1.21a Key policy rate. Percent. 2008 Q1 – 2016 Q4

Source: Norges Bank

(26)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

−4

−3

−2

−1 0 1 2 3 4

−4

−3

−2

−1 0 1 2 3 4

Chart 1.21b Output gap. Percent. 2008 Q1 – 2016 Q4

Source: Norges Bank

(27)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

−1 0 1 2 3 4 5

Chart 1.21c CPIXE

¹⁾

. Four−quarter change. Percent. 2008 Q1 – 2016 Q4

1) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding temporary changes in energy prices.

As from August 2008, the CPIXE is a real−time series. See Norges Bank Staff Memo 7/2008 and 3/2009 Source: Norges Bank

(28)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Chart 1.22 Key policy rate in a technical model−based interest rate forecast and the baseline scenario in MPR 1/13 (black line). Percent. 2008 Q1 – 2016 Q4

Source: Norges Bank

(29)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

30% 50% 70% 90%

Chart 1.23 Key policy rate in the baseline scenario in MPR 3/12 with probability distribution and key policy rate in the baseline scenario in MPR 1/13 (red line).

Percent. 2008 Q1 – 2015 Q4

Source: Norges Bank

(30)

2013Q1 2013Q3 2014Q1 2014Q3 2015Q1 2015Q3

−2

−1 0 1 2

−2

−1 0 1 2

Change in the interest rate forecast Prices and costs

Capacity utilisation Growth abroad

Lending margins

Chart 1.24 Factors behind changes in the interest rate forecast since MPR 3/12.

Accumulated contribution. Percentage points. 2013 Q1 – 2015 Q4

Source: Norges Bank

(31)

50 100 150 200

1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011

Crises

Average (1975 Q4 – 2012 Q3) Credit/GDP

Trend²⁾

Chart 2.1 Total credit¹⁾mainland Norway as a percentage of GDP mainland Norway.

Percent.1975 Q4 - 2012 Q3

1) The sum of C3 non-financial corporations in mainland Norway (total economy before 1995) and C2 households

2) One-sided Hodrick-Prescott filter with recursive projections. Lambda = 400 000 Sources: Statistics Norway, IMF and Norges Bank

(32)

50 100 150 200

1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011

Crises

Average (1975 Q4 – 2012 Q4) House prices/disposable income Trend³⁾

Chart 2.2 House prices¹⁾ as a percentage of disposable income²⁾. Indexed.

1998 Q4 = 100. 1978 Q4 – 2012 Q4

1) Quarterly figures before 1990 are calculated with linear interpolation of annual figures

2) Adjusted for estimated reinvested dividend income for 2000 – 2005 and redemption/reduction of equity capital for 2006 – 2012

3) One-sided Hodrick-Prescott filter with recursive projections. Lambda = 400 000

Sources: Statistics Norway, Norwegian Association of Real Estate Agents (NEF), Eiendomsmegler- foretakenes forening (EFF), Finn.no, Pöyry and Norges Bank

(33)

50 100 150 200

1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011

Crises

Average (1981 Q2 – 2012 Q4) Real commercial property prices Trend²⁾

Chart 2.3 Real commercial property prices¹⁾. Indexed. 1998 = 100.

Semi-annual data. 1981 – 2012

1) Estimated market prices for office premises in Oslo deflated by a GDP deflator for mainland Norway 2) One-sided Hodrick-Prescott filter with recursive projections. Lambda = 400 000

Sources: OPAK and Statistics Norway

(34)

0 20 40 60

1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011

Crises

Average (1975 Q4 – 2012 Q4) Wholesale funding/total assets Trend³⁾

Chart 2.4 Banks'¹⁾ wholesale funding as a percentage of total assets²⁾. Percent.

1975 Q4 – 2012 Q4

1) All banks and covered bond mortgage companies in Norway excluding branches and subsidiaries of foreign banks

2) Quarterly figures before 1989 are calculated by linear interpolation of annual figures 3) One-sided Hodrick-Prescott filter with recursive projections. Lambda = 400 000 Source: Norges Bank

(35)

0 50 100 150 200 250

1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011

Foreign debt in non-financial enterprises Domestic debt in non-financial enterprises (C2) Debt households (C2)

Chart 2.5 Total private credit/GDP mainland Norway. Decomposed. Percent.

1975 Q4 – 2012 Q3

Sources: Statistics Norway, IMF and Norges Bank

(36)

-20 -10 0 10 20 30 40

1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011

GDP-growth mainland Norway Growth in debt, households (C2)

Growth in total debt, non-financial enterprises (C3)¹⁾

Chart 2.6 Debt of households and non-financial enterprises and mainland GDP.

4-quarter growth. Percent. 1975 Q4 - 2012 Q4

1) The sum of C2 non-financial enterprises and foreign debt of non-financial enterprises.

Mainland Norway

Sources: Statistics Norway, IMF and Norges Bank

(37)

0 50 100 150 200 250

-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010

Growth in disposable income Growth in houshold debt Debt burden, right axis

Chart 2.7 Household debt burden¹⁾. Percent. 1978 Q4 – 2012 Q3

1) Debt as a percentage of disposable income adjusted for estimated reinvested dividend income for 2000 – 2005 and redemption/reduction of equity capital for 2006 – 2012 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

(38)

0 50 100 150 200 250

1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011

Crises

Real house prices Trend³⁾

Chart 2.8 Real house prices¹⁾²⁾. Indexed . 1998 Q4 =100. 1975 Q4 – 2012 Q4

1) Quarterly figures before 1990 are calculated by linear interpolation of annual figures 2) Deflated by CPI

3) One-sided Hodrick-Prescott filter with recursive projections. Lambda = 400 000

Sources: Statistics Norway, Norwegian Association of Real Estate Agents (NEF), Eiendomsmegler- foretakenes forening (EFF), Finn.no, Pöyry and Norges Bank

(39)

Chart 2.9 House prices by region. 12-month change. Percent. Monthly data.

January 2006 – February 2013

Sources: Norwegian Association of Real Estate Agents (NEF), Pöyry, Finn.no and Eiendomsmeglerforetakenes forening

-30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Oslo Rogaland Hordaland Trøndelag Agder Hedmark

(40)

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

Norway Sweden Denmark UK

Netherlands Spain

Chart 2.10 House prices in selected countries. Indexed. 1995 Q1 = 100.

Quarterly data. 1995 Q1 – 2012 Q4

Source: Thomson Reuters

(41)

-20 -10 0 10 20 30 40

1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011

Growth in disposable income Growth in house prices

Chart 2.11 House prices¹⁾and disposable income²⁾. 4-quarter growth. Percent.

1978 Q4 – 2012 Q4

1) Quarterly figures before 1990 are calculated by linear interpolation of annual figures

2) Adjusted for estimated reinvested dividend income for 2000 – 2005 and redemption/reduction of equity capital for 2006 – 2012

Sources: Statistics Norway, Norwegian Association of Real Estate Agents (NEF), Eiendomsmeglerforetakenes forening (EFF), Finn.no, Pöyry and Norges Bank

(42)

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500

1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011

Chart 2.12 Non-residential building starts. Adjusted for seasonal and irregular components. 1000 m². 1983 – 2012

Source: Statistics Norway

(43)

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000

1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012

Oslo (central part, prestige segment) Oslo (central part, high standard) Oslo (central part, good standard) Kristiansand

Stavanger (central part) Tromsø

Bergen Trondheim

Chart 2.13 Rental prices for office premises. NOK per square metre (at constant 2012 prices). Semi-annual figures. 1985 – 2012

Sources: Statistics Norway, Dagens Næringsliv and OPAK

(44)

-40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120

1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012

Growth in total assets Growth in wholesale funding

Chart 2.14 Banks'¹⁾total assets and wholesale funding²⁾. 4-quarter growth.

Percent. 1981 Q2 – 2012 Q4

1) All banks and covered bond mortgage companies excluding branches and subsidiaries of foreign banks in Norway

2) Quarterly figures before 1989 are calculated by linear interpolation of annual figures Source: Norges Bank

(45)

9.3

8.0 8.3

9.6

8.9

10.6 10.5 10.7 9.9

10.0 10.7

10.0 10.3

11.1

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

DNB Bank Nordea Bank Norge

SpareBank 1 SR-Bank

Sparebanken Vest

SpareBank 1 SMN

SpareBank 1 Nord-Norge

All Norwegian banks

2011 2012

Chart 2.15 Common Equity Tier 1 capital ratio at year-end. Large banking groups¹⁾ and all Norwegian banks²⁾. Percent. 2011 – 2012

1) Norwegian banking groups with total assets larger than NOK 60 billion

2) For banks that are financial conglomerates, consolidated level data are used. For other banks, solo level data are used

Sources: Banking groups' earnings reports, Finanstilsynet and Norges Bank

(46)

-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014

Sources: IMF and Norges Bank

Contribution from emerging economies Contribution from advanced economies Average global growth 1980 – 2011

Chart 3.1 Global GDP. Weighted to reflect each country's share of global output measured in a common currency (market exchange rates). Annual growth. Percent. 1990 – 2016. Projections from 2012

(47)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13

US Germany UK Spain Italy

Chart 3.2 Yields on 10-year government bonds. Percent. Daily data.

1 January 2010 – 8 March 2013

(48)

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

US (S&P 500) Germany (DAX) Spain (IBEX) Italy (FTSE MIB)

Emerging economies (MSCI EM)

Chart 3.3 Developments in equity markets. Index. 1 January 2010 = 100.

1 January 2010 – 8 March 2013

(49)

0 1 2 3

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

US Euro area³⁾

UK Sweden

Chart 3.4 Key rates and estimated forward rates at 31 October 2012 and 8 March 2013.¹⁾ Percent. 1 January 2010 – 31 December 2016²⁾

1) Broken lines show estimated forward rates at 31 October 2012. Thin lines show forward rates at 8 March 2013. Forward rates are based on Overnight Index Swap (OIS) rates

2) Daily data from 1 January 2010 and quarterly data from 2013 Q2 3) EONIA for the euro area from 2013 Q2

Sources: Bloomberg and Norges Bank

(50)

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

0 50 100 150 200 250

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Housing starts (left-hand scale) NAHB (right-hand scale)

Chart 3.5 US housing market. Housing starts (in thousands) and National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) housing market index. Monthly data.

January 2000 – January 2013

(51)

-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20

-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Corporate credit demand (left-hand scale) Fixed investment (right-hand scale)

Chart 3.6 Fixed investment in the euro area. Four-quarter change. Percent.

Change in corporate credit demand¹⁾. 2000 Q1 - 2012 Q4

1) Euro area bank lending survey. Values above zero indicate net increase in credit demand Sources: Thomson Reuters, Eurostat and ECB

(52)

90 100 110 120 130 140 150

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Greece¹⁾

Spain Portugal Ireland Italy Euro area

Chart 3.7 Unit labour costs. Seasonally adjusted index. 2000 Q1 = 100.

2000 Q1 – 2012 Q3

1) 2001 Q1 = 100. Four-quarter moving average, not seasonally adjusted Sources: OECD and Norges Bank

(53)

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Greece Spain Portugal Ireland Italy

Chart 3.8 Unemployment. Percentage of labour force. Monthly data.

January 2000 – January 2013

(54)

-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Emerging economies in Asia excluding China¹⁾

China OECD

Average 2000 - 2007

Chart 3.9 Retail sales in emerging economies in Asia and in the OECD. Volume.

Three-month moving average. 12-month change. Percent.

January 2000 – December 2012

1) GDP-weighted (PPP). Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, Singapore, South-Korea and Taiwan

Sources: Thomson Reuters, IMF and Norges Bank

(55)

0 5 10 15 20 25

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Chart 3.10 Prices for coal, crude oil and natural gas. USD per MMBTU.

Monthly data. January 2003 – December 2015

Coal US Oil Gas UK Gas US Gas Russia Gas Norway

Sources: IMF, Thomson Reuters, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

Futures prices

(56)

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Copper Wheat Maize Soya beans Aluminium

Chart 3.11 Commodity prices. USD. Index. 2 January 2003 = 100.

Daily data. January 2003 – December 2015

Sources: CME Group, ICE and Thomson Reuters

Futures prices

(57)

80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 80

85 90 95 100 105 110 115

81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13

I-44 TWI

Chart 3.12 Developments in the krone exchange rate. Import-weighted exchange rate index (I-44) and trade-weighted index (TWI)¹⁾. Daily data. 11 December 1981 – 8 March 2013

1) A positive slope denotes a stronger krone exchange rate Source: Norges Bank

(58)

Chart 3.13 Banks' and mortgage companies' qualitative assessment of access to and premiums on wholesale funding.¹⁾ March 2008 – February 2013

1) Average reported by banks in Norges Bank's liquidity survey. For short-term funding in forreign currency only banks active in these markets are included. Red indicates reduced access and higher premiums, grey indicates unchanged, green indicates increased access and lower premiums

Source: Norges Bank Access funding

Short-term NOK Short-term foreign curr.

Long-term NOK Long-term foreign curr.

Risk premium funding Short-term NOK Short-term foreign curr.

Long-term NOK Long-term foreign curr.

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

(59)

-50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Average risk premium on outstanding covered bonds Risk premium on new covered bonds

Average risk premium on outstanding senior bonds Risk premium on new senior bonds

Chart 3.14 Estimated average risk premium¹⁾on new and outstanding bond debt for Norwegian banking groups²⁾. Basis points. Monthly average.

January 2006 – February 2013

1) Difference against 3-month NIBOR

2) All banks and mortgage companies in Norway, excluding branches of foreign banks in Norway Sources: Bloomberg, Stamdata, DNB Markets and Norges Bank

(60)

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4

Money market premium Key policy rate

Deposit rate (Statistics Norway)

Chart 3.15 Deposit rate¹⁾and margin. Percent. 1. January 2010 – 8. March 2013

1) All banks in Norway

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-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Net interest income Other operating income Personnel expenses Other operating expenses Loan losses Pre-tax profits

Chart 3.16 Banks'¹⁾pre-tax profits as a percentage of average total assets. Percent.

Annual data. 2008 – 2012

1) All banks excluding branches of foreign banks in Norway, but including branches of Norwegian banks abroad. Solo level

Source: Norges Bank

(62)

0 3 6 9 12 15 18

0 1 10 100 1,000 10,000

IRB banks (with transitional rule) Standardised approach banks

Current temporary requirement (EBA requirement) + countercyclical buffer of 2.5 pts.

Current temporary requirement (EBA requirement)

Total assets (logarithmic scale)

Common Equity Tier 1 capital ratio

Chart 3.17 Banking groups'¹⁾Common Equity Tier 1 capital ratio. Percent. Total assets. In billions of NOK. At 31 December 2012

1) Banking groups with total assets in excess of NOK 10bn, excluding branches of foreign banks in Norway

Sources: Finanstilsynet, banking groups' earnings reports and Norges Bank

(63)

0.00 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00 120.00

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

All banks DNB + commercial banks

Savings banks Total assets >

NOK 20bn

Savings banks Total assets <

NOK 20bn

2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2012 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4

Chart 3.18 Banks'¹⁾liquidity coverage ratio (LCR).²⁾Consolidated data.

Weighted average for the group. At end-quarter

1) All banks in Norway excluding branches of foreign banks in Norway

2) Calculations are based on the recommendations published by the Basel Committee in 2010 Sources: Finanstilsynet and Norges Bank

(64)

50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Deposit-to-loan ratio

Deposit-to-loan ratio excluding foreign financial enterprises

Chart 3.19 Deposit-to-loan ratio – customers of Norwegian banks and mortgage companies.¹⁾Percent. 2008 Q1 – 2012 Q4

1) All banks and mortgage companies in Norway, excluding branches and subsidiaries of foreign banks in Norway

Source: Norges Bank

(65)

0 1 2 3 4

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

CPI CPI-ATE CPIXE

Chart 3.20 CPI, CPI-ATE¹⁾and CPIXE²⁾. 12-month change. Percent.

January 2009 – June 2013³⁾

1) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products

2) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding temporary changes in energy prices.

Real-time figures. See Norges Bank Staff Memo7/2008 and 3/2009 3) Projections for March 2013 – June 2013 (broken lines)

(66)

-2.5 0 2.5 5

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

1) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products 2) Projections for March 2013 – June 2013 (broken lines) 3) Norges Bank's estimates

Chart 3.21 CPI-ATE¹⁾. Total and by supplier sector. 12-month change.

Percent. January 2009 – June 2013²⁾

CPI-ATE Imported consumer goods Domestically produced goods and services³⁾

(67)

80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150

ULC mainland Norway

ULC for sectors that produce consumer goods and services CPI-ATED excluding rent

Chart 3.22 Unit labour costs and prices for domestically produced consumer goods and services, excluding rent. Index. 2001 = 100. 2001 – 2012

(68)

-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

1) Projections for 2013 Source: Norges Bank

Chart 3.23 Indicator of external price impulses to imported consumer goods measured in foreign currency. Annual change. Percent. 2003 – 2013¹⁾

(69)

0 1 2 3

Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13

MPR 1/13 SAM CPI-ATE

Chart 3.24 CPI-ATE¹⁾. Actual figures, baseline scenario and projections from SAM²⁾ with fan chart. Four-quarter change. Percent. 2011 Q1 – 2013 Q2³⁾

30% 50% 70% 90%

1) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products 2) System for averaging short-term models

3) Projections for 2013 Q1 – 2013 Q2 (broken lines) Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

(70)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13

MPR 1/13 SAM

GDP mainland Norway

Chart 3.25 GDP mainland Norway. Actual figures, baseline scenario and projections from SAM¹⁾ with fan chart. Four-quarter change. Volume.

Seasonally adjusted. Percent. 2011 Q1 – 2013 Q2²⁾

1) System for averaging short-term models

2) Projections for 2013 Q1 – 2013 Q2 (broken lines) Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

30% 50% 70% 90%

(71)

-2 0 2 4

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Regional network Mainland GDP growth

Chart 3.26 GDP mainland Norway¹⁾and Norges Bank's regional network's indicator of change in production past three months and expected change in production next six months. Percent. 2003 Q1 – 2013 Q2²⁾

1) Seasonally adjusted quarterly change. Volume

2) Latest observation in the regional network is January 2013. Latest GDP observation is 2012 Q4, projections for 2013 Q1 – 2013 Q2 (broken line)

(72)

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

1) Share of contacts that will have some or considerable problems accommodating an increase in demand and the share of contacts where production is constrained by labour supply

Source: Norges Bank

Output gap MPR 1/13 (left-hand scale) Capacity constraints (right-hand scale) Labour supply (right-hand scale)

Chart 3.27 Capacity constraints and labour supply¹⁾as reported by Norges Bank's regional network and estimated output gap. Percent. 2005 Q1 – 2013

(73)

-2 -1 0 1 2

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Regional network Employment growth

Chart 3.28 Employment¹⁾and Norges Bank's regional network's indicator of change in employment and expected change in employment next three months. Percent. 2003 Q1 – 2013 Q2²⁾

1) Seasonally adjusted quarterly change in Quarterly National Accounts 2) Latest observation in the Regional network is January 2013.

Latest observation in the Quarterly National Accounts is 2012 Q4, projections for 2013 Q1 – 2013 Q2 (broken line)

(74)

0 2 4 6 8

1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011

0 2 4 6 8

Annual wage growth Unemployment rate

Chart 3.29 Annual wage growth¹⁾and LFS unemployment. Percent.

1993 – 2013²⁾

1) Including estimated costs of increase in number of vacation days and introduction of mandatory occupational pensions

2) Projections for 2013 (broken lines)

Sources: Statistics Norway, Technical Reporting Committee on Income Settlements and Norges Bank

(75)

-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15

1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 -15

-10 -5 0 5 10 15

Saving ratio

Saving ratio excl. dividend income Net lending ratio, excl. dividend income

Chart 3.30 Household saving and net lending as a share of disposable income. Percent. 1992 – 2016¹⁾

1) Projections for 2013 – 2016 (broken lines) Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

(76)

34 % 10 % 7 %

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500

All²⁾ All in income deciles 2-9 with net debt³⁾

All in income deciles 2-9 with net debt and debt burden 3 to 10 times

disposable income⁴⁾

Debt (average)

Gross financial assets (average) Gross financial assets to debt ratio

Chart 3.31 Total household¹⁾ debt and gross financial assets. Average.

In thousands of NOK. 2010

1) Excluding self-employed

2) 2.19m households 3) 1.16m households 4) 455 000 households Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

%

(77)

0 2 4 6 8

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

0 2 4 6 8

Household consumption Household real disposable income

Chart 3.32 Household consumption¹⁾and real disposable income²⁾. Annual change. Percent. 2003 – 2016³⁾

1) Includes consumption among non-profit organisations. Volume

2) Excluding dividend income. Including income in non-profit organisations 3) Projections for 2013 – 2016 (broken line)

(78)

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000

-20000 -15000 -10000 -5000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000

1) Projections for 2012 and 2013 2) Projections for 2013

Difference between number of housing completions and increase in households (left-hand scale)

Population growth (right-hand scale)

Chart 3.33 Difference between number of housing completions and increase in households¹⁾, and population growth²⁾. 2003 – 2013

(79)

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013

1) Projections for 2013 Source: Statistics Norway

Petroleum investment Business investment Housing investment

Chart 3.34 Investment as share of GDP mainland Norway. Volume. Percent.

1981 – 2013¹⁾

(80)

0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225

1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016

1) Projections for 2013 – 2016

Chart 3.35 Petroleum investment. Constant 2010 prices. In billions of NOK.

1992 – 2016¹⁾

(81)

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5

1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011

1) Annual figures in the period 1981 – 1995, quarterly figures from 1996 Q4 Sources: OPAK and Statistics Norway

Employment growth (left-hand scale) Market value (right-hand scale)

Chart 3.36 Market value of office premises in Oslo and employment growth¹⁾. NOK 1000 per square metre (at constant 2012 prices) and four-quarter change in percent. Semi-annual and quarterly figures. 1981 – 2012

(82)

30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44

0 5 10 15 20 25

1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

Return on equity (left-hand scale) Return on total assets (left-hand scale) Equity ratio (right-hand scale)

Chart 3.37 Return on equity¹⁾and total assets²⁾and equity ratio³⁾. Percent.

Annual figures. 1999 – 2011

1) Earnings before tax, depreciation and amortisation as a percentage of equity 2) Earnings before tax, depreciation and amortisation as a percentage of total assets 3) Sample of limited companies holding interest-bearing debt. Excluding government, banking/insurance and exploitation of natural rescourses

Source: Norges Bank

(83)

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

1) Projections for 2013 – 2016

Sources: Ministry of Finance and Norges Bank

Chart 3.38 Structural non-oil deficit and expected real return on the Government Pension Fund Global. Constant 2013 prices.

In billions of NOK. 2003 – 2016¹⁾

Structural non-oil deficit Expected real return