Chart 1.1 Indicator of world trade.

(1)

0 50 100 150 200 250 300

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

1) The index is constructed on the basis of the sum of exports and imports in the US, Japan, Germany and China. The numbers are converted into USD

Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

Chart 1.1 Indicator of world trade.¹⁾Index, January 2002 = 100.

January 2002 August 2009

(2)

-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Source: Thomson Reuters

Chart 1.2 Consumer prices in industrial countries. 12-month change.

Per cent. January 2002 September 2009

US Euro area UK Japan

(3)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12

US Euro area UK

Chart 1.3 Key rates and estimated forward rates on 17 June 2009 and 22 October 2009¹⁾. Per cent. 1 June 2007 31 December 2012²⁾

1) Dotted lines show estimated forward rates as at 17 June 2009. Thin lines show forward rates as at 22 October 2009. Forward rates are based on Overnight Indexed Swap (OIS) interest rates

2) Daily figures from 1 June 2007 and quarterly figures as at 22 October 2009 Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

(4)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Sources: Statistics Norway, Norwegian Labour and Welfare Administration (NAV) and Norges Bank

Chart 1.4 Unemployed. Percentage of labour force. Seasonally adjusted.

January 2002 September 2009

Registered unemployment Registered unemployed and on labour market programmes LFS unemployment

(5)

-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20

-20 -10 0 10 20 30 40

1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007

TNS Gallup, left-hand scale

Forbrukermeteret (CCI), right hand-scale 1)

Chart 1.5 Household expectations. Net numbers. Quarterly figures.

1992 Q4 2009 Q3

1) Quarterly figures based on monthly observations Sources: TNS Gallup, Opinion and Norges Bank

(6)

-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

1) C2

Sources: Statistics Norway and the real estate industry (NEF, EFF, FINN.no and ECON Pöyry)

Chart 1.6 Household credit from domestic sources¹⁾and house prices.

12-month change. Per cent. January 2002 September 2009

Household credit House prices

(7)

0 1 2 3 4

Jun-07 Dec-07 Jun-08 Dec-08 Jun-09

US

Trading partners Norway

Chart 1.7 Difference between 3-month money market rate and key policy rate expectations in the market. Percentage points. 5-day moving average.

1 June 2007 22 October 2009

Sources: Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

(8)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Jun-07 Dec-07 Jun-08 Dec-08 Jun-09

Money market rate Key policy rate Bank lending rates

Average lending rates to enterprises

Chart 1.8 Key policy rate, money market rate¹⁾, bank lending rates on new loans²⁾and average lending rates to enterprises³⁾. Per cent.

1 June 2007 22 October 2009

1) 3-month NIBOR (effective)

2) Interest rate on new mortgage loans of NOK 1m within 60% of purchase price with variable interest rate. Figures for the 20 largest banks, weighted according to market share 3) Non-financial enterprises. 2007 Q2 2009 Q2

Sources: Norsk familieøkonomi AS, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

(9)

-2.5 0 2.5 5 7.5

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Chart 1.9 Consumer prices. 12-month change. Per cent.

January 2002 September 2009

CPI CPI-ATE 1)

Weighted median 20 per cent trimmed mean

CPIXE 2) CPI-FW 3)

1) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products

2) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding temporary changes in energy prices. See Staff Memo 2008/7 and Staff Memo 2009/3 from Norges Bank for a description of the CPIXE 3) CPI adjusted for frequency of price changes. See the box on page 27 and Economic commentaries 7/2009 from Norges Bank for a description of the CPI-FW

Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

(10)

0 2.5 5

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

1) Average of expectations of employer/employee organisations and economists (financial industry experts, macro analysts and academics)

Sources: TNS Gallup and Perduco

Expected inflation 5 years ahead Expected inflation 2 years ahead

Chart 1.10 Expected consumer price inflation 2 and 5 years ahead.¹⁾ Per cent. 2002 Q1 2009 Q3

(11)

0 0.5 1 1.5 2

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Chart 1.11 5-year forward rate differential 5 years ahead between Norway and the euro area. Percentage points. 1 January 2002 22 October 2009

(12)

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Variation CPI

Inflation target

1) The moving average is calculated 7 years back and 2 years ahead 2) The band around the CPI is the variation in the CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products in the average period, measured by +/- one standard deviation

3) Projections for 2009 2011 from this Report form the basis for this estimate Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

Chart 1.12 Inflation. Moving 10-year average¹⁾ and variation²⁾in CPI³⁾. Per cent. 1980 2009

(13)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Source: Norges Bank

Chart 1.13a Projected key policy rate in the baseline scenario with fan chart.

Quarterly figures. Per cent. 2007 Q1 2012 Q4

30% 50% 70% 90%

(14)

-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Chart 1.13b Estimated output gap¹⁾ in the baseline scenario with fan chart.

Quarterly figures. Per cent. 2007 Q1 2012 Q4

30% 50% 70% 90%

1) Percentage deviation between actual level and estimated normal level for mainland GDP Source: Norges Bank

(15)

0 1 2 3 4 5

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Chart 1.13c Projected CPI in the baseline scenario with fan chart.

4-quarter change. Per cent. 2007 Q1 2012 Q4

30% 50% 70% 90%

(16)

0 1 2 3 4 5

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Chart 1.13d Projected CPIXE¹⁾in the baseline scenario with fan chart.

4-quarter change. Per cent. 2007 Q1 2012 Q4

1) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding temporary changes in energy prices. See Staff Memo 2008/7 and Staff Memo 2009/3 from Norges Bank for a description of the CPIXE Source: Norges Bank

30% 50% 70% 90%

(17)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Source: Norges Bank

Chart 1.14 Key policy rate in the baseline scenario as at 17 December 2008, in MPR 1/09, MPR 2/09 and MPR 3/09. Per cent. 2007 Q1 2012 Q4

17 Dec. 2008 MPR 1/09 MPR 2/09 MPR 3/09

(18)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

1) Norges Bank's projections from 2009 Q4 Source: Norges Bank

Chart 1.15 The key policy rate in the baseline scenario and the key policy rate plus premiums in the Norwegian money market.¹⁾Per cent. 2007 Q1 2012 Q4

Key policy rate in the baseline scenario Key policy rate plus money market premiums

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-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 85

88 91 94 97 100 103 106

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

I-44, left-hand scale

3-month rate differential, right-hand scale

1) A rising curve indicates a stronger krone exchange rate Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

Chart 1.16 Three-month money market rate differential between Norway and trading partners and the import-weighted exchange rate index (I-44)¹⁾. Monthly- (historical) and quarterly figures (ahead). January 2002 December 2012

(20)

-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Relative consumer prices Relative wages

Chart 1.17 Real exchange rate. Deviation from mean over the period 1970 2008. Per cent. 1970 2009¹⁾

1) The squares shows the average over the period 16 - 22 October 2009. A rising curve indicates weaker competitiveness

Sources: Statistics Norway, Technical Reporting Committee on Income Settlements, Ministry of Finance and Norges Bank

(21)

-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Chart 1.18 Projected inflation and output gap in the baseline scenario.

Per cent. Quarterly figures. 2007 Q1 2012 Q4

Output gap, left-hand scale CPI, right-hand scale CPIXE, right-hand scale

(22)

-3 -2 -1 0 1 2

2007 2008 2009 2010

Mainland GDP GDP trading partners

1) Projections from 2009 Q2

Chart 1.19 GDP growth from previous quarter. Norway and trading partners.

Seasonally adjusted. Per cent. 2007 Q1 2010 Q4¹⁾

(23)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

2007 2008 2009 2010

Key policy rate Taylor rule Growth rule

Rule with external interest rates

Chart 1.20 Key policy rate and calculations based on simple monetary policy rules.¹⁾Per cent. 2007 Q1 2010 Q2

1) The calculations are based on Norges Bank's projections for the output gap, consumer prices adjusted for tax changes and excluding temprary changes in energy prices (CPIXE) and three-month money market rates. To ensure comparability with the key policy rate the simple rules are adjusted for risk premiums in three-month money market rates

Source: Norges Bank

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0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

90 % confidence interval Key policy rate

1) Interest rate movements are explained by developments in inflation,

mainland GDP growth, wage growth and key policy rates among trading partners.

See Staff Memo 2008/3 for further discussion Source: Norges Bank

Chart 1.21 Key policy rate and interest rate developments that follow from Norges Bank's average pattern of interest rate setting.¹⁾

Per cent. 2002 Q1 2010 Q2

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0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Estimated forward rates

Money market rates in the baseline scenario

1) Forward rates are based on money market rates and interest rate swaps. The blue band shows the highest and lowest forward rates in the period 9 22 October 2009

Source: Norges Bank

Chart 1.22 Three-month money market rates in the baseline scenario and estimated forward rates¹⁾. Per cent. Quarterly figures. 2007 Q1 2012 Q4

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0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Source: Norges Bank

Chart 1.23a Key policy rate in the baseline scenario and in the alternative scenarios. Per cent. Quarterly figures. 2007 Q1 2012 Q4

Baseline scenario

Lower price and cost inflation Higher demand growth

30% 50% 70% 90%

(27)

-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Source: Norges Bank

Chart 1.23b The output gap in the baseline scenario and in the alternative scenarios. Per cent. Quarterly figures. 2007 Q1 2012 Q4

Baseline scenario

30% 50% 70% 90%

(28)

0 1 2 3 4 5

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Baseline scenario

Chart 1.23c CPIXE in the baseline scenario and in the alternative scenarios.

Per cent. 2007 Q1 2012 Q4

30% 50% 70% 90%

Source: Norges Bank

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0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

1) The Executive Board's decision of 28 October 2009 is not shown in the chart Source: Norges Bank

Strategy period

3/03 2/043/04

1/04 1/052/053/05 1/06

2/06 3/06

1/07

2/073/071/08

Key policy rate

2/08

Chart 1.24 Interval for the key policy rate at the end of each strategy period, actual developments¹⁾and projection. Per cent.

January 2004 December 2012

3/08

17 Dec 08 1/092/09

3/09

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0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Chart 1 Key policy rate in the baseline scenario in MPR 2/09 with fan chart and key policy rate in the baseline scenario in MPR 3/09 (red line).

Per cent. Quarterly figures. 2007 Q1 2012 Q4

30% 50% 70% 90%

Source: Norges Bank

(31)

-2 -1 0 1 2

09 Q4 10 Q2 10 Q4 11 Q2 11 Q4 12 Q2 12 Q4

Source: Norges Bank

Chart 2 Factors behind changes in the interest rate path since MPR 2/09.

Accumulated contribution. Percentage points. 2009 Q4 2012 Q4

Money market premiums Interest rates abroad and the exchange rate Productivity, wages and prices Demand

Changes in the interest rate path

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-5 0 5 10 15 20 25

OECD Eastern Europe Asia Latin America

Chart 2.1 Manufacturing in OECD and emerging markets¹⁾. Twelve-month change. Per cent. January 2002 – August 2009

-25 -20 -15 -10

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

1) Weighted with GDP weights (PPP). See Economic Commentaries 8/2009 for countries included in the different regions

Sources: IMF, Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

(33)

20 30 40

8 12 16 20

Retail sales, left-hand scale 1) Credit growth, right-hand scale

Real investment in urban areas, right-hand scale 2)

Chart 2.2 Investment, credit growth and retail sales in China.

Twelve-month growth. January 2002 – September 2009

0 10

0 4

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

1) Deflated by the CPI, three-month moving average 2) Year-to-date growth

Sources: Thomson Reuters, CEIC and Norges Bank

(34)

50 75 100 125 150

Chart 2.3 Oil price (Brent Blend) in USD per barrel. 1 January 2002 – 22 October 2009 Futures prices (broken lines) MPR 2/09 and MPR 3/09

Brent Blend

MPR 2/09 (August 2009 – February 2012) MPR 3/09 (December 2009 – May 2012)

0 25 0

25

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

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200 300 400 500 600

Chart 2.4 Commodity prices in USD. Index. 2 January 2002 = 100.

2 January 2002 – 22 October 2009. Futures prices from

22 October 2009 (broken lines). December 2009 – August 2012

Copper Wheat Cotton Aluminium

0 100 200

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Sources: Thomson Reuters, Chicago Board of Trade, ICE and Norges Bank

(36)

0 2.5 5 7.5

CPI CPIXE

Chart 2.5 CPI and CPIXE¹⁾. 12-month change. Per cent.

January 2006 – June 2010²⁾

-2.5 -2.5

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

1) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding temporary changes in energy prices.

See Staff Memo 2008/7and Staff Memo 2009/3from Norges Bank for a description of the CPIXE

2) Projections for October 2009 – June 2010 (broken lines). Monthly figures to March 2010, then quarterly figures

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0 3 6

Chart 2.6 CPI-ATE¹⁾. Total and by supplier sector.

12-month change. Per cent. January 2006 – June 2010²⁾

CPI-ATE

Imported consumer goods Domestically produced goods and services 3)

-3 -3

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

2) Projections for October 2009 – June 2010 (broken lines). Monthly figures to March 2010, then quarterly figures

3) Norges Bank's estimates

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3 4 5 6 7

Chart 2.7 Unit labour costs, mainland Norway and prices for domestically

produced goods and services in the CPI-ATE^1).Four-quarter growth. Smoothed.

Per cent. 2000 Q1 – 2010 Q2²⁾

Unit labour costs

Domestically produced goods and services

0 1 2

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

1) Projections from Q3 2009 (broken line)

2) Norges Bank's estimates. Projections from Q4 2009 (broken line) Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

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0 1 2

0 1 2 Chart 2.8 Indicator of external price impulses to imported

consumer goods measured in foreign currency. Annual change. Per cent.

2002 – 2012¹⁾

-2 -1

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

1) Projections for 2009 – 2012 Source: Norges Bank

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1 2 3 4

MPR 3/09 SAM

Chart 2.9 CPI-ATE¹⁾. Actual figures, baseline scenario and

projections by SAM²⁾. Four-quarter change. Per cent. 2006 Q1 – 2010 Q2³⁾

0 0

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

1) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products 2) System for averaging models for short-term forecasting 3) Projections for 2009 Q4 –2010 Q2 (broken lines)

(41)

-10 0 10 20 30 40

Energy prices in CPI Estimated trend MPR 3/09 Estimated trend MPR 2/09

Chart 2.10 Energy component of the CPI¹⁾and estimated trend²⁾. 12-month change. Per cent. January 2006 – December 2012³⁾

-30 -20

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

-30 -20

1) The product groups Electricity, gas and other fuels and Fuels and lubricants

2) The trend is estimated using an HP-filter on the actual and projected movements of

energy prices in the CPI, seeStaff Memo 2008/7and Staff Memo 2009/3from Norges Bank 3) Projections for October 2009 – December 2012 (broken line)

Sources: Nord Pool, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

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-1 0 1 2 3 4

Chart 2.11 Indicator for actual change in production last three months and expected change in production in next six months. Index¹⁾October 2002 – March 2010²⁾

-3 -2 1

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

1) The scale runs from -5 to +5, where -5 indicates a sharp fall and +5 indicates strong growth.

See article "Norges Bank's regional network" in Economic Bulletin 2/05 for further information.

2) Last observation September 2009 Source: Norges Bank's regional network

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0 2 4 6 8

MPR 3/09 SAM

Chart 2.12 Mainland GDP. Actual figures, baseline scenario and projections by SAM¹⁾. Four-quarter change. Volume. Seasonally adjusted. Per cent.

2007 Q1 – 2010 Q1²⁾

-4 -2 -4

-2

2007 2008 2009 2010

1) System for averaging models for short-term forecasting 2) Projections for 2009 Q3 – 2010 Q4 (broken lines)

(44)

20 30 40 50 60 70

Capacity utilisation Labour supply

Chart 2.13 Capacity utilisation and labour supply¹⁾. Per cent.

January 2007 – september 2009

0 10 20

2007 2008 2009

1) Share of contacts that will have some or considerable problems accommodating an

(unexpected/expected) increase in demand, and the share of contacts where the labour supply is a constrain on production

Source: Norges Bank's regional network

(45)

90 100 110

90 100 110 Chart 2.14. Exports. Norway¹⁾and four trading partners²⁾. Seasonally adjusted.

Index 2008 Q2 = 100. 2008 Q2 – 2009 Q2

US Euro area UK Sweden Mainland Norway

80

Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09

80

1) Exports from mainland Norway

2) Figures based on OECDs Economic Outlook 85 Sources: OECD and Statistics Norway

(46)

1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5

Chart 2.15 Terms of trade. Index 2005 Q1 = 1.

2002 Q1 – 2009 Q2

Total Mainland Norway

0.8 0.9 1.0

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Source: Statistics Norway

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4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12

4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Chart 2.16 Exports from mainland Norway. Annual change. Volume.

Per cent. 1971 – 2010¹⁾

1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 -12

-10 -8 -6 -4

-12 -10 -8 -6 -4

1) Projections for 2009 og 2010

(48)

85 95 105

85 95 105 Chart 2.17 Private investments. Norway and four trading partners.

Seasonally adjusted. Index 2008 Q2 = 100. 2008 Q2 – 2009 Q2

US Euro area UK Sweden

Mainland Norway

75

Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09

75

1) Investments in mainland Norway

2) Figures based on OECDs Economic Outlook 85 Sources: OECD and Statistics Norway

(49)

20 25 30 35

Chart 2.18 Manufacturing investment statistics. Estimated and actual investment.

In billions of NOK. 2006 – 2010

2006 2007 2008

2009 2010

10 15

May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Actual

Estimate published same year

Estimate for years ahead Actual

(50)

0 5 10 15 20

0 2 4 6 8

Chart 2.19 Private consumption¹⁾and real house prices. Four-quarter change.

Per cent. 1993 Q1 – 2009 Q3

-15 -10 -5

-6 -4 -2

1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008

1) Seasonally adjusted and smoothed. Volume Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

Private consumption, left-hand scale House prices, right-hand scale

(51)

2 4 6 8

Income Consumption

Chart 2.20 Household real disposable income¹⁾and consumption²⁾. Annual growth. Per cent. 2002 – 2012³⁾

0 0

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

1) Excluding share dividends

2) Includes consumption in non-profit organisations. Volume 3) Projections for 2009–2012 (broken line)

(52)

-5 0 5 10 15

Saving ratio excl. share dividends Saving ratio, adjusted 2)

Net lending ratio excl. share dividends

Chart 2.21 Household saving and net lending as a share of disposable income. Per cent. 1983 – 2012¹⁾

-15 -10 -15

-10

1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011

1) Projections for 2009 – 2012 (broken line)

2) Adjusted for estimated reinvested share dividends for 2000 – 2005 and redemption/reduction of equity capital for 2006 – 2012

(53)

100 105 110

1998 Q3 1986 Q3 2007 Q4

Chart 2.22 Productivity growth in Mainland Norway after a business cycle peak. GDP per person hour (base value). Seasonally adjusted quarterly numbers. Index¹⁾

90 95

-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

1) Index is set at 100 in the quarter when the capacity utilisation was at its peak

The series labels refer to the peak quarter. Capacity utilisation is estimated using an HP-filter Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

(54)

-1 0 1 2 3 4

Industry Total Public sector Construction

Chart 2.23 Indicator for actual change in employment and expected change in employment in next three months. Index.¹⁾ October 2002 – December 2009²⁾

-3 -2 -3

-2

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

1) The scale runs from -5 to +5, where -5 indicates a sharp fall and +5 indicates strong growth See article "Norges Bank's regional network" in Economic Bulletin 2/05 for further information 2) Last observation September 2009

(55)

40 60 80 100 120

Registered unemloyment (not seasonally adjusted)

Projections from June 2009 (not seasonally adjusted)

Chart 2.24 Registered unemployment. In 1000s. Actual figures and Norges Bank's projections from June 2009. January 2007 – December 2009¹⁾

0 20 0

20

2007 2008 2009

1) Last observation September 2009 Sources: NAV and Norges Bank

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2 3 4 5

Chart 2.25 Registered unemployment. Per cent of labour force. Seasonally adjusted. 2002 1Q – 2010 2Q¹⁾

0 1

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

1) Projections for 2009 Q4 – 2010 Q2 (broken line) Sources: NAV, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

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2 4 6 8

Annual wage growth Unemployment rate

Chart 2.26 Annual wage growth¹⁾ and LFS unemployment. Per cent.

1993 – 2010²⁾

0 0

1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008

1) Including estimated costs of increase in number of vacation days and introduction of mandatory occupational pensions

2) Projections for 2009 and 2010 (broken lines)

Sources: Statistics Norway, Technical Reporting Committee on Income Settlements and Norges Bank

(58)

4 5 6 7

Manufacturing Construction Retail

Services Public sector Aggregated

Chart 2.27 Expected annual wage growth current year. Per cent.

October 2002 – September 2009

2 3

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

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60 80 100 120 140 160

Chart 2.28 Non-oil budget deficit. In billions of NOK. 2002 – 2010¹⁾

0 20 40

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

1) Projections for 2009 and 2010 Source: Ministry of Finance

(60)

60 80 100 120 140 160

Chart 2.29 Structural non-oil deficit and expected real return on

the Government Pension Fund – Global. In billions of 2010 NOK. 2007 – 2012¹⁾

Structural non-oil deficit

Expected real return

0 20 40

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

1) Projections from Ministry of Finance and Norges Bank for 2009 – 2012 (broken line).

Sources: Ministry of Finance and Norges Bank

(61)

70 90 110 130 150

Chart 2.30 Investment statistics for the petroleum industry. Estimated and actual investment. In billions of NOK. 2006 – 2010

2006 2007 2008

30 50 30

50

May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb

2009 2010

Estimate published same year

Estimate for years ahead Actual

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40 60 80 100 120 140

Chart 2.31 Petroleum investment. Fixed 2006-prices. In billions of 2009 NOK.

1983 – 2012¹⁾

0 20 40

1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008

1) Projections for 2009 – 2012

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0 2.5 5 7.5

Chart 1. Consumer prices. 12-month change. Per cent.

January 2002 – September 2009

CPI CPI-ATE 1)

Weighted median 20 per cent trimmed mean

CPIXE 2) CPI-FW 3)

-2.5 -2.5

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

2) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding temporary changes in energy prices. See Staff Memo 2008/7 and Staff Memo 2009/3 from Norges Bank for a description of the CPIXE 3) CPI adjusted for frequency of price changes