Chart 1.1

(1)

-25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

1) Weighted by GDP weights (PPP). See Economic Commentaries 8/2009 for an overview of countries included in the different regions

Sources: IMF, Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

OECD Central and Eastern Europe Asia Latin America

Chart 1.1 Manufacturing output in OECD and emerging markets¹⁾. Twelve-month change. Per cent. January 2002 December 2009

(2)

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010

Source: Thomson Reuters

Chart 1.2 Unemployment. Share of labour force. Per cent. Seasonally adjusted.

January 1970 February 2010

US Euro area UK Sweden

(3)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12

US Euro area UK

Chart 1.3 Key rates and estimated forward rates at 28 October 2009 and 18 March 2010.¹⁾ Per cent. 1 June 2007 31 December 2012²⁾

1) Broken lines show estimated forward rates as at 28 October 2009. Thin lines show forward rates as at 18 March 2010. Forward rates are based on Overnight Indexed Swap (OIS) interest rates

2) Daily figures from 1 June 2007 and quarterly figures as at 18 March 2010 Sources: Bloomberg and Norges Bank

(4)

-3 -2 -1 0 1 2

2007 2008 2009 2010

Mainland GDP GDP trading partners

1) Projections from 2010 Q1

Sources: Statistics Norway, OECD, Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

Chart 1.4 GDP growth on previous quarter. Norway and trading partners.

Seasonally adjusted. Per cent. 2007 Q1 2010 Q4¹⁾

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-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

1) Credit from domestic sources, C2

2) House prices to February. Credit growth to January

Sources: Statistics Norway, OPAK, the real estate industry (NEF, EFF, FINN.no and ECON Pöyry), OBOS and Norges Bank

House prices Credit to households

Chart 1.5 Credit to households ¹⁾and house prices.

12-month change. Per cent. January 2002 February 2010²⁾

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0 1 2 3 4

Jun-07 Dec-07 Jun-08 Dec-08 Jun-09 Dec-09

US Norway

Trading partners

Chart 1.6 Difference between 3-month money market rate and key rate expectations in the market. Percentage points. 5-day moving average.

1 June 2007 18 March 2010

Sources: Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

(7)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Jun-07 Dec-07 Jun-08 Dec-08 Jun-09 Dec-09

Money market rate Key policy rate

Bank lending rates (mortgage loans) Average lending rates to enterprises

Chart 1.7 Key policy rate, money market rate¹⁾, weighted bank lending rates on new loans²⁾ and average lending rates to enterprises³⁾. Per cent.

1 June 2007 18 March 2010

1) 3-month NIBOR (effective)

2) Interest rate on new mortgage loans of NOK 1m within 60% of purchase price with variable interest rate. Figures for the 20 largest banks, weighted according to market share 3) Non-financial enterprises. 2007 Q2 2009 Q4

Sources: Norsk familieøkonomi AS, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

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-2.5 0 2.5 5 7.5

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Chart 1.8 Consumer prices. 12-month change. Per cent.

CPI CPI-ATE 1)

Weighted median 20 per cent trimmed mean

CPIXE 2) CPI-FW 3)

1) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products

2) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding temporary changes in energy prices. CPIXE is a real time series. See Staff Memo 7/2008 and 3/2009 from Norges Bank for a description of the CPIXE 3) CPI adjusted for frequency of price changes. See Economic commentaries 7/2009 from Norges Bank for a description of the CPI-FW

Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

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0 2.5 5

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

1) Average of expectations of employer/employee organisations and economists (financial industry experts, macro analysts and academica)

Sources: TNS Gallup and Perduco

Expected inflation 5 years ahead Expected inflation 2 years ahead

Chart 1.9 Expected consumer price inflation 2 and 5 years ahead.¹⁾ Per cent. 2002 Q1 2010 Q1

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0 0.5 1 1.5 2

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

Chart 1.10 5-year forward rate differential 5 years ahead between Norway and the euro area. Percentage points. 1 January 2002 18 March 2010

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0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Variation CPI

Inflation target

1) The moving average is calculated 10 years back

2) The band around the CPI is the variation in the CPI adjusted for tax changes and

excluding energy products in the average period, measured by +/- one standard deviation 3) Projections for CPI from this Report form the basis for this estimate

Chart 1.11 Inflation. Moving 10-year average¹⁾ and variation²⁾ in CPI³⁾. Per cent. 1980 2010

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0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Source: Norges Bank

Chart 1.12a Projected key policy rate in the baseline scenario with fan chart.

Quarterly figures. Per cent. 2008 Q1 2013 Q4

30% 50% 70% 90%

(13)

-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Chart 1.12b Estimated output gap¹⁾ in the baseline scenario with fan chart.

Quarterly figures. Per cent. 2008 Q1 2013 Q4

30% 50% 70% 90%

1) The output gap measures the percentage deviation between mainland GDP and projected potential mainland GDP

Source: Norges Bank

(14)

-1 0 1 2 3 4 5

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Chart 1.12c Projected CPI in the baseline scenario with fan chart.

4-quarter change. Per cent. 2008 Q1 2013 Q4

30% 50% 70% 90%

(15)

-1 0 1 2 3 4 5

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Chart 1.12d Projected CPIXE¹⁾in the baseline scenario with fan chart.

4-quarter change. Per cent. 2008 Q1 2013 Q4

1) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding temporary changes in energy prices. As from August 2008, CPIXE is a real time series. See Staff Memo 7/2008 and 3/2009 from Norges Bank for a description of the CPIXE

Source: Norges Bank

30% 50% 70% 90%

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0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Source: Norges Bank

Chart 1.13 Key policy rate in the baseline scenario in MPR 1/09, MPR 2/09, MPR 3/09 and MPR 1/10. Per cent. 2008 Q1 2012 Q4

MPR 1/09 MPR 2/09 MPR 3/09 MPR 1/10

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0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

1) Norges Bank's projections from 2010 Q2 Source: Norges Bank

Chart 1.14 Key policy rate in the baseline scenario and key policy rate plus premiums in the Norwegian money market.¹⁾ Per cent. 2008 Q1 2013 Q4

Key policy rate in the baseline scenario Key policy rate plus money market premiums

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-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 85

88 91 94 97 100 103 106

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

I-44, left-hand scale

3-month rate differential, right-hand scale

1) A rising curve indicates a stronger krone exchange rate Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

Chart 1.15 Three-month money market rate differential between Norway and trading partners and the import-weighted exchange rate index (I-44)¹⁾. Monthly- (historical) and quarterly figures (ahead). January 2002 December 2013

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-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

1) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding temporary changes in energy prices.

From August 2008, CPIXE is a real time series. See Staff Memo 7/2008 and 3/2009 from Norges Bank for a description of the CPIXE

Chart 1.16 Projected inflation¹⁾and output gap in the baseline scenario.

Per cent. Quarterly figures. 2008 Q1 2013 Q4

Output gap, left-hand scale CPIXE, right-hand scale

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-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Relative consumer prices Relative wages

Chart 1.17 Real exchange rate. Deviation from mean over the period 1970 2009. Per cent. 1970 2010¹⁾

1) The squares show the average so far in 2010. A rising curve indicates weaker competitiveness

Sources: Statistics Norway, Technical Reporting Committee on Income Settlements, Ministry of Finance and Norges Bank

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-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

Interval for the normal real interest rate 10-year bond yield

Key policy rate

3-month money market rate

Chart 1.18 Real interest rates based on 3-month money market rate¹⁾, key policy rate¹⁾, 10-year bond yield²⁾and the normal real interest rate in Norway.

Per cent. March 2005 December 2013

1) Deflated by the 12-quarter moving average (centred) of inflation measured by the CPI.

Projections for the CPI from this Report and the inflation target form the basis for this estimate.

2) 10-year swap rate deflated by the inflation target.

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0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

2008 2009 2010

Key policy rate Taylor rule Growth rule

Rule with external interest rates

Chart 1.19 Key policy rate and calculations based on simple monetary policy rules¹⁾.Per cent. 2008 Q1 2010 Q4

1) The calculations are based on Norges Bank's projections for the output gap, consumer prices adjusted for tax changes and excluding temprary changes in energy prices (CPIXE) and three-month money market rates. To ensure comparability with the key policy rate the simple rules are adjusted for risk premiums in three-month money market rates

Source: Norges Bank

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0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

90 % confidence interval Key policy rate

1) Interest rate movements are explained by developments in inflation, mainland GDP

growth, wage growth and key policy rates among trading partners. The equation is estimated over the period 1999 Q1 2010 Q1. See Staff Memo 3/2008 for further discussion

Source: Norges Bank

Chart 1.20 Key policy rate and interest rate developments that follow from Norges Bank's average pattern of interest rate setting.¹⁾Per cent.

2002 Q1 2010 Q4

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0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Estimated forward rates

Money market rates in the baseline scenario

1) Forward rates are based on money market rates and interest rate swaps. The blue band shows the highest and lowest forward rates in the period 5 - 18 March 2010

Source: Norges Bank

Chart 1.21 Three-month money market rates in the baseline scenario and estimated forward rates¹⁾. Per cent. Quarterly figures. 2008 Q1 2013 Q4

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0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Source: Norges Bank

Chart 1.22a Key policy rate in the baseline scenario and in the alternative scenarios. Per cent. Quarterly figures. 2008 Q1 2013 Q4

Baseline scenario Lower demand Higher demand

30% 50% 70% 90%

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-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Source: Norges Bank

Chart 1.22b Output gap in the baseline scenario and in the alternative scenarios. Per cent. Quarterly figures. 2008 Q1 2013 Q4

30% 50% 70% 90%

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0 1 2 3 4 5

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

30% 50% 70% 90%

1) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding temporary changes in energy prices. As from August 2008, CPIXE is a real time series. See Staff Memo 7/2008 and 3/2009 from Norges Bank for a description of the CPIXE

Source: Norges Bank

Chart 1.22c CPIXE¹⁾ in the baseline scenario and in the alternative scenarios.

Per cent. 2008 Q1 2013 Q4

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0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

1) The Executive Board's decision of 24 March 2010 is not shown in the chart Source: Norges Bank

Strategy period

3/06 1/07

2/07 3/07 1/08

Key policy rate

2/08

Chart 1.23 Interval for the key policy rate at the end of each strategy period, actual developments¹⁾ and projected key policy rate in the baseline scenario.

Per cent. January 2007 December 2013

3/08

17 Dec 08 1/09

2/09 3/09 1/10

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0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Chart 1 Key policy rate in the baseline scenario in MPR 3/09 with fan chart and key policy rate in the baseline scenario in MPR 1/10 (red line).

Per cent. Quarterly figures. 2007 Q1 2012 Q4

30% 50% 70% 90%

Source: Norges Bank

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-2 -1 0 1 2

10 Q2 10 Q4 11 Q2 11 Q4 12 Q2 12 Q4

Source: Norges Bank

Chart 2 Factors behind changes in the interest rate forecast since MPR 3/09.

Accumulated contribution. Percentage points. 2010 Q2 2012 Q4

Demand Productivity, wages and prices

Interest rates abroad and the exchange rate Change in the interest rate forecast

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0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Chart 1 10-year swap rates for selected countries.

Norway US Euro area UK Sweden

(32)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Chart 2 Nominal forward interest rates for Norway.

Five-year rates five years ahead, based on government bond yields Five-year rates five years ahead, based on swap rates

One-year rates nine years ahead, based on swap rates

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30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

US (ISM) Euro area (PMI)

UK (PMI) Sweden (PMI)

China (PMI) India (PMI)

Chart 2.1 Leading indicators for the manufacturing sector.

Diffusion index. Seasonally adjusted. January 2002 February 2010

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-5 0 5 10 15 20

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Source: OECD Economic Outlook 86

US UK Germany (Western Germany before 1991) Sweden

Chart 2.2 Household saving ratio. Per cent of disposable household income.

1970 Q2 2011 Q4. Projections from OECD for 2010 Q1 2011 Q4

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0 10 20 30 40 50

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Sources: IMF and World Bank

World

Advanced economies

Emerging and developing economies China

India

Chart 2.3 Investment as a share of GDP. Per cent. 1980 2008

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0 25 50 75 100 125 150

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

Chart 2.4 Oil price (Brent Blend) in USD per barrel. 1 January 2002 18 March 2010 Futures prices (broken lines) MPR 3/09 and MPR 1/10

Brent Blend

MPR 1/10 (May 2010 December 2013) MPR 3/09 (December 2009 May 2012)

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0 2.5 5 7.5

CPI CPI-ATE CPIXE

Chart 2.5 CPI, CPI-ATE¹⁾ and CPIXE²⁾. 12-month change. Per cent.

January 2007 – December 2010³⁾

-2.5 -2.5

2007 2008 2009 2010

2) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding temporary changes in energy prices. Real time figures.

See Staff Memo 7/2008 and 3/2009 from Norges Bank for a description of the CPIXE 3) Projections for March 2010 – December 2010 (broken lines). Monthly figures to June 2010, then quarterly figures

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1 2 3 4

Chart 2.6 CPIXE¹⁾. 12-month change. Per cent.

August 2008 – December 2010²⁾

MPR 1/10 MPR 3/09

0 0

Aug-08 Feb-09 Aug-09 Feb-10 Aug-10

1) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding temporary changes in energy prices. Real time figures. See Staff Memo 7/2008 and 3/2009 from Norges Bank for

a description of the CPIXE

2) Projections for March 2009 – December 2010 (broken lines). Monthly figures to March 2010, then quarterly figures

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0 2.5 5 7.5

0 2.5

5 7.5

Chart 2.7 CPI-ATE¹⁾. Total and by supplier sector.

12-month change. Per cent. January 2007 – December 2010²⁾

CPI-ATE Imported consumer goods Domestically produced goods and services 3)

-2.5 0

2007 2008 2009 2010

2) Projections for March 2010 – December 2010 (broken lines). Monthly figures to June 2010, then quarterly figures

3) Norges Bank's estimates

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2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Chart 2.8 Unit labour costs in mainland Norway and prices for domestically produced goods and services in the CPI-ATE¹⁾.

Four-quarter change. Per cent. 2002 Q1 – 2010 Q4²⁾

Unit labour costs

Domestically produced goods and services

-1 0 1

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

1) Norges Bank's estimates

2) Projections for 2010 Q1 – 2010 Q4 (broken lines) Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

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1 2 3 4

MPR 1/10 SAM

Chart 2.9 CPI-ATE¹⁾. Actual figures, baseline scenario and

projections by SAM²⁾. Four-quarter change. Per cent. 2007 Q1 – 2010 Q4³⁾

0 0

2007 2008 2009 2010

1) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products 2) System for averaging models for short-term forecasting 3) Projections for 2010 Q1 – 2010 Q4 (broken lines)

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-1 0 1 2 3 4

Chart 2.10 Indicator of actual change in production past three months and expected change in production next six months. Index¹⁾. October 2002 – August 2010²⁾

-3 -2 -3

-2

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

1) The scale runs from -5 to +5, where -5 indicates a sharp fall and +5 indicates strong growth. See article "Norges Bank's regional network" in Economic Bulletin 2/09 for further information

2) Last observation February 2010 Source: Norges Bank's regional network

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0 1 2

MPR 1/10 SAM

Chart 2.11 Mainland GDP. Actual figures, baseline scenario and projections by SAM¹⁾. Quarterly change. Volume. Seasonally adjusted.

Per cent. 2007 Q1 – 2010 Q4²⁾

-2 -1

2007 2008 2009 2010

1) System for averaging models for short-term forecasting 2) Projections for 2010 Q1 – 2010 Q4 (broken lines)

(44)

20 30 40 50 60 70

Capacity utilisation Labour supply

Chart 2.12 Capacity utilisation and labour supply.¹⁾ Per cent.

January 2007 - February 2010

0 10 20

2007 2008 2009 2010

1) Share of contacts that will have some or considerable problems accommodating an (unexpected/expected) increase in demand, and the share of contacts where production is constrained by labour supply

Source: Norges Bank's regional network

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0 3 6 9 12

0 3 6 9 12 Chart 2.13 Exports from mainland Norway. Annual change. Volume.

Per cent. 1980 – 2010¹⁾

1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 -9

-6 -3

-9 -6 -3

1) Projections for 2010

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-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4

Manufacturing Retail trade Services

Chart 2.14 Investment plans for next 12 months compared with past 12 months. Index¹⁾. October 2002 – February 2010

-4 -3 -4

-3

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

1) The scale runs from -5 to +5, where -5 indicates a sharp fall and +5 indicates strong growth. See article "Norges Bank's regional network" in Economic Bulletin 2/09 for further information

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20 25 30 35

Chart 2.15 Investment statistics for manufacturing, mining and quarrying.

Estimated and actual investments. In billions of NOK. 2006 – 2010

2006 2007 2008

2009 2010

10 15 10

15

May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Estimates for the year

ahead

Estimates for the same year

Actual

Source: Statistics Norway

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2 4 6 8

Income Consumption

Chart 2.16 Household real disposable income¹⁾ and consumption²⁾. Annual change. Per cent. 2002 – 2013³⁾

0 0

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

1) Excluding share dividends

2) Includes consumption in non-profit organisations. Volume 3) Projections for 2010 – 2013 (broken line)

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-5 0 5 10 15

Saving ratio excl. share dividends Saving ratio, adjusted 2)

Net lending ratio excl. share dividends

Chart 2.17 Household saving and net lending as a share of disposable income. Per cent. 1983 – 2013¹⁾

-15 -10 -15

-10

1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011

1) Projections for 2010 – 2013 (broken lines)

2) Adjusted for estimated reinvested share dividends for 2000 – 2005 and redemption/reduction of equity capital for 2006 – 2013

(50)

40 60 80 100 120 140

800 1000 1200

Chart 2.18 Housing starts¹⁾and new orders received for housing starts²⁾. 1992 Q3 - 2009 Q4

Housing starts. Left hand scale New orders. Right hand scale

0 20 40

400 600

1992 1996 2000 2004 2008

1) In 1000s of square meters. Seasonally adjusted

2) Value index deflated by the housing investments deflator in the national accounts.

Displaced two quarters forward

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-1 0 1 2 3 4

Total Industry Building and construction

Chart 2.19 Indicator of actual change in employment and expected change in employment in next three months.¹⁾ Per cent. October 2002 – May 2010²⁾

-4 -3 -2

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

1) Composite indicator to end-2004. Split into "past 3 months" and "3 months ahead" as from 2005

2) Last observation February 2010

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95 100 105 110

1998 Q3 1986 Q3 2007 Q4 2)

Chart 2.20 Development in mainland productivity after a business cycle peak. GDP per personhour. Seasonally adjusted. Quarterly figures. Index¹⁾

90 95

-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

1) The index is set at 100 in the quarter when capacity utilisation was at its peak.

The serie's labels refer to the peak quarter. Capacity utilisation is estimated using an HP-filter

2) Projections for 2010 Q1 – 2010 Q4 (broken line) Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

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78 80 82

72 74 76

Aged 15 - 74, left-hand scale Aged 20 - 29, right-hand scale

Chart 2.21 Labour force as percentage of population. Average over past four quarters. 1997 Q1 - 2010 Q4¹⁾

76 70

1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009

1) Projections for labour force aged 15-74 from 2010 Q1 – 2010 Q4 (broken line) Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

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2 3 4 5

Chart 2.22 Registered unemployment. Percentage of labour force.

Seasonally adjusted. 2002 1Q – 2010 4Q¹⁾

0 1

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

1) Projections for 2010 Q1 – 2010 Q4 (broken line)

Sources: Norwegian Labour and Welfare Administration, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

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2 4 6 8

Annual wage growth Unemployment rate

Chart 2.23 Annual wage growth¹⁾ and LFS unemployment. Per cent.

1993 – 2013²⁾

0 0

1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011

1) Including estimated costs of increase in number of vacation days and introduction of mandatory occupational pensions

2) Projections for 2010 - 2013 (broken lines)

Sources: Statistics Norway, Technical Reporting Committee on Income Settlements and Norges Bank

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4 5 6 7

4 5 6

7 Manufacturing Building and construction

Retail trade Services

Public sector Total

Chart 2.24 Expected annual wage growth each year. Per cent.

October 2002 – February 2010

2 3

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

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80 120 160

Chart 2.25 Non-oil budget deficit. In billions of NOK. 2002 – 2010¹⁾

0 40

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

1) Projections for 2010 Source: Ministry of Finance

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60 90 120 150 180

Chart 2.26 Structural, non-oil deficit and expected real return on

the Government Pension Fund Global. In billions of 2010 NOK. 2001 – 2013¹⁾

Structural non-oil deficit

Expected real return

0 30 0

30

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

1) Projections from Ministry of Finance and Norges Bank for 2009/2010 – 2013 Sources: Ministry of Finance and Norges Bank

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100 120 140 160

Chart 2.27 Investment statistics for the petroleum industry. Estimated and actual investment. In billions of NOK. 2006 – 2010

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

60 80 60

80

May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Estimates for the year

ahead

Estimates for the same year

Actual

Source: Statistics Norway

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60 90 120 150

Chart 2.28 Petroleum investments. Constant 2007 prices. In billions of NOK.

2005 – 2013¹⁾

0 30

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

1) Projections for 2010 – 2013

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2 3 4 5

90 70 50 30

Actual MPR 3/08 17-Dec-08 MPR 1/09

MPR 2/09 MPR 3/09

Chart 1 CPIXE¹⁾. Actual figures and projections from selected reports. Fan chart from monetary policy meeting 17 December 2008. Four-quarter change. Per cent. 2006 Q1 - 2011 Q4

0 1 0

1

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

1) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding temporary changes in energy prices.

See Staff Memo 7/2008 and Staff Memo 3/2009 from Norges Bank for a description of the CPIXE

Source: Norges Bank

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2 3 4

Actual

Projections from SAM in MPR 3/08 Projections from SAM in MPR 1/09 Projections from SAM in MPR 2/09

Chart 2 CPI-ATE¹⁾. Actual figures and projections by SAM published in selected reports. Four-quarter change. Per cent. 2008 Q1 - 2009 Q4

0 1

Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09

1) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products 2) See box “SAM – System of models for short-term forecasting”in Monetary Policy Report 2/08

Projections from SAM in MPR 3/09

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0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

30 50 70 90

MPR 3/08 MPR 1/09 MPR 2/09 MPR 3/09

Chart 3 Output gap¹⁾. Projections in MPR 3/08 with fan chart and projections from selected reports. Per cent. 2006 Q1 – 2011 Q4

-3 -2 -1 0

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

1)The output gap measures the percentage deviation between mainland GDP and projected potential mainland GDP

Source: Norges Bank

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1 3 5 7

1 3 5

7 Actual

Projections from SAM in MPR 3/08 Projections from SAM in MPR 1/09 Projections from SAM in MPR 2/09 Projections from SAM in MPR 3/09

Chart 4 Mainland GDP. Actual figures and projections by SAM¹⁾²⁾published in selected reports. Four-quarter change. Volume. Seasonally adjusted.

2007 Q1 - 2009 Q4

-3 -1

2007 2008 2009

1) See box “SAM – System of models for short-term forecasting”in Monetary Policy Report 2/08

2) The unbroken lines in the SAM series show mainland GDP according to the quarterly national accounts at the time projections were made

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1 2 3 4 5

Highest and lowest, others Average, others

Norges Bank Actual

Chart 5 CPI. Projections of annual change in 2009 at different times.¹⁾ Semiannual figures²⁾. Per cent. 2006, first half - 2009, second half

0 0

2006 2007 2008 2009

1) Highest and lowest projections from other forecasters are shown by the blue band.

The red line shows the average of other forecasters' projections

2) The projections are calculated as the average of each institution's projections published in the first or the second half of the year

Sources: Norges Bank and reports from the other forecasters

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1 2 3 4 5

1 2 3 4

5 Highest and lowest, others Average, others

Norges Bank Actual

Chart 6 CPI-ATE¹⁾. Projections of annual change in 2009 at different

times.²⁾Semiannual figures³⁾. Per cent. 2006, first half - 2009, second half

0 1 0

1

2006 2007 2008 2009

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-1 0 1 2 3 4 5

-1 0 1 2 3 4

5 Highest and lowest, others Average, others

Norges Bank Actual

Chart 7 Mainland GDP. Projections of annual change in 2009 at different times.¹⁾Semiannual figures²⁾. Per cent. 2006, first half - 2009, second half

-3 -2 -3

-2

2006 2007 2008 2009

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4 6 8 10

30 50 70 90

Actual IR 1/06 MPR 1/08 MPR 2/08

MPR 3/08 17-Dec-08 MPR 1/09

Chart 8 Key policy rate. Projections from selected reports and actual development. Fan chart from Inflation Report 1/06. Quarterly figures. Per cent. 2005 Q1 - 2009 Q4

0 2 0

2

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Source: Norges Bank

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0 1 2

0 1

2 Interest rate premiums Interest rates abroad and exchange rate Productivity, wages and prices Demand

Changes in the interest rate forecast

Chart 9 Factors behind changes in the interest rate path from the monetary policy meeting 17 December 2008 to MPR 3/09.¹⁾Percentage points.

2009 Q2 – 2011 Q4

09 Q2 09 Q4 10 Q2 10 Q4 11 Q2 11 Q4 -2 -1

-2 -1

1) The bars are a technical illustration of changes in the interest rate forecast as a result of news and new assessments

Source: Norges Bank