INTRODUCTORY STATEMENT
GOVERNOR ØYSTEIN OLSEN,
15 MAY 2014
Inflation and capacity utilisation
10-year moving average
1)and variation in CPI.
2)Annual change. Percent
Projected capacity utilisation.
3)Quarterly figures. Percent
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
1981 1988 1995 2002 2009
Variation Inflation target CPI
-4 -2 0 2 4
-4 -2 0 2 4
2008 2010 2012 2014
30% 50% 70% 90%
1) The moving average is calculated 10 years back.
2) The band around the CPI is the variation in the CPI in the average period, measured by +/- one standard deviation.
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
3) Also called the output gap. Calculated as the percentage deviation between mainland GDP and projected potential mainland GDP
Source: Norges Bank
Norges Bank’s key policy rate and lending rate for households
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Key policy rate
Lending rate, households
Percent
1) Average interest rate on all loans to households from banks and mortgage companies. 3 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
1)
Key rates abroad
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 1 2 3 4 5
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
US Euro area Market expectations, 5 May 2014
1)
Percent
1) EONIA for the euro area from 2014 Q3 4
Sources: Bloomberg and Norges Bank
GDP for trading partners
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 1 2 3 4 5
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Projections from Monetary Policy Report 1/14 Four-quarter change. Percent
Sources: Thomson Reuters, IMF and Norges Bank 5
Consumer prices abroad
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
US
Euro area Sweden
1)Twelve-month change. Percent
1) Harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) 6 Source: Thomson Reuters
1)
GDP for mainland Norway
-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5
-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Actual figures and projections from Monetary Policy Report 1/14 (light blue bar). Annual change. Volume. Percent
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank 7
The krone exchange rate
80 85 90 95 100 105 110 80
85 90 95 100 105 110
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Import-weighted exchange rate index (I-44) 1)
8 1) A positive slope denotes a stronger krone exchange rate.
Source: Norges Bank
Consumer prices in Norway
-2.5 0.0 2.5 5.0
-2.5 0.0 2.5 5.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
CPI-ATE
Imported consumer goods
Domestically produced goods and services
Four-quarter change. Percent
9 1) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products.
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
1)
Norges Bank’s key policy rate projections
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Projections in Monetary Policy Report 1/13 Projections in Monetary Policy Report 1/14
Actual and projections. Percent
Source: Norges Bank 10
Inflation and capacity utilisation
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Capacity utilisation, left-hand scale
CPI-ATE, right-hand scale
2)Actual and projections in Monetary Policy Report 1/14 (dotted lines).
Percent
11
1) Also called the output gap. Calculated as the percentage deviation between mainland GDP and projected potential mainland GDP.
2) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products.
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
1)
Household debt and house prices
Household debt ratio.
1)Percent
House prices relative to disposable income. Indexed. 1998 Q4 =100
12
1) Loan debt as a percentage of disposable income adjusted for estimated reinvested dividend income.
Sources: Statistics Norway, Norwegian Association of Real Estate Agents (NEF), Eiendomsmeglerforetakenes forening (EFF), Finn.no, Eiendomsverdi and Norges Bank
