Passenger vehicles

In a report published by the Norwegian Environment Agency, governmental outcome due to purchase of EVs are 70 000 NOK for a small EV and 435 000 NOK for a big EV (95). In the following calculations, it is assumed that these expenses are valid for FCEVs as well. In addition, it is assumed that governmental expenses due to purchase of EVs and hydrogen FCEVs decrease by 0.5 % for every thousand vehicles of the respective category sold. 15 % of all EVs and FCEV are assumed to be of the category ‘big’, while the remaining 85 % are assumed to be of the category ‘small’.

Through email correspondence with Tor Kjetil Bergsaker of Uno-X, it became clear that governmental expenses for one of their hydrogen stations, the “Car-200”, is 10 MNOK (96). One such station has the capacity to cover hydrogen consumption of 486.67 hydrogen vehicles. This ratio is used as basis for calculations for all hydrogen stations. It is assumed that governmental expenses connected to establishment of hydrogen stations decrease over time. The nature of this decrease is uncertain, and a range of 1-2 % reduction per hydrogen station established is used in these calculations. As hydrogen passenger vehicles will receive financial support from the government until year 2025 or until 50 000 hydrogen passenger vehicles have been purchased (91), both these scenarios are evaluated. The results are given in Figure 7 and Figure 8.

Year 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Gasoline 297 90 38 21 3 0 0 0

Diesel 15498 12345 7919 3769 1493 639 263 142

BEV 11 171 1281 2429 3186 3741 4350 4725

Hydrogen 5 153 1607 3390 4841 5526 6242 6721

Bus stock projection, by fuel

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Figure 7: Net present value development for hydrogen passenger vehicles with financial support until 50 000 units and required fueling stations

Figure 7 shows the range of net present values of the costs for hydrogen passenger vehicles and required fueling stations with financial support until 50 000 units. Evaluating over the 14-year period renders net present values from -5 441 MNOK to -7 127 MNOK. The stock of hydrogen FCEVs reach 50 000 units early in year 13, meaning NPV difference from years 12 to 14 mostly comes from public financial support for fueling stations. See Appendix 1: Tables and calculations for relevant tables.

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Figure 8: Net present value development for hydrogen passenger vehicles with financial support until year 2025 and required fueling stations

Figure 8 shows the range of net present values of the costs for hydrogen passenger vehicles and required fueling stations with financial support until year 2025. Evaluating over the 14-year period renders net present values from -2 913 MNOK to -3 447 MNOK. The hydrogen FCEV stock reaches 16 591 units by year 2025, which is an increase of 16 501 units from the start of 2017. The NPV difference from years 9 to 14 only comes from public financial support for fueling stations.

Figure 9: Net present value development for electric passenger vehicles with financial support until year 2020 and required rapid charging stations

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Figure 9 shows the range of net present values of the costs for electric passenger vehicles with financial support until year 2020 and required rapid charging stations. Evaluating over the 14-year period renders NPVs from -14 499 MNOK to -26 929 MNOK. The EV stock reaches 377 987 units by 2020, which is an increase of 247 194 units from the start of 2017. The abrupt change from year 4 to 5 is due to purchases of EVs no longer being publicly financially supported and the assumption that governmental expenses to rapid charging stations decrease by 0.1 % for reduction factor 1 and 0.01 % for reduction factor 2 for each station established.

Figure 10: NPV ranges and best guess NPV for passenger vehicles in the status quo scenario

Figure 10 shows the range of net present values of the social costs of carbon in the status quo scenario.

In this scenario, no zero-emission vehicles are purchased and no hydrogen fueling stations nor charging stations are established in the evaluated period. However, the total amount of passenger vehicles continues along its current path. This combined with the numbers for social and abatement costs of emissions from Table 8 and Table 9 results in the range of NPV values seen in Figure 10. The “Best guess SCC” represents estimated values based on IPCC’s “best guess” value for the social cost of CO2

(97) and combined with Table 9. See Appendix 1: Tables and calculations for more details.

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Combining all previously shown results from passenger vehicles, calculations can be made for the net present value of the ultra-low emission path. This is shown in Figure 11.

Figure 11: Net present value of the ultra-low emission path with evaluation period 2017-2030

The net present value of the ultra-low emission path involves great investments over the first four years, mostly due to public financial support of EV purchases. Assuming this investment causes the stock development of zero-emission vehicles to increase according to the Norwegian Institute of Transport Economics, reduction of emissions lead to this investment being socioeconomically sound when evaluating over a period of 14 years with an NPV of 5 533 MNOK when assuming minimum hydrogen FCEV and EV costs. When assuming maximum hydrogen FCEV and EV costs, the NPV of investment into the projected development is -7 431 MNOK. See Appendix 1: Tables and calculations for more details.

Calculations were also made for the period 2017-2050. These can be seen in Figure 12.

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Figure 12: Net present value of the ultra-low emission path for passenger vehicles with evaluation period 2017-2050

The net present value of the ultra-low emission path involves great investments over the first four years, mostly due to public financial support of EV purchases. After these governmental expenses have ended, what remains are smaller investments in hydrogen FCEV stock, hydrogen fueling stations and rapid charging stations. Evaluating for 2017-2050 gives an NPV of 51 389 MNOK when assuming minimum hydrogen FCEV and EV costs. When assuming maximum hydrogen FCEV and EV costs, the NPV of investment into the projected development is 38 665 MNOK. See Appendix 1: Tables and calculations for more details.