SINTEF REPORT
TITLE
/LYLQJFRQGLWLRQVDPRQJSHRSOHZLWKDFWLYLW\
OLPLWDWLRQVLQ1DPLELD$UHSUHVHQWDWLYH 1DWLRQDOVXUYH\
AUTHOR(S)
$UQH+(LGH*HUWYDQ5RR\0LWFK(/RHE
CLIENT(S)
SINTEF Unimed
Address: P.O.Box 124, Blindern 0314 Oslo NORWAY Location: Forskningsveien 1 Telephone: +47 22 06 73 00 Fax: +47 22 06 79 09 Enterprise No.: NO 948 007 029 MVA
1RUZHJLDQ)HGHUDWLRQRI2UJDQLVDWLRQVRI 'LVDEOHG3HRSOH
REPORT NO. CLASSIFICATION CLIENTS REF.
67)$ 8QUHVWULFWHG -DUO2YHVHQ
CLASS. THIS PAGE ISBN PROJECT NO. NO. OF PAGES/APPENDICES
ELECTRONIC FILE CODE PROJECT MANAGER (NAME, SIGN.) CHECKED BY (NAME, SIGN.)
$UQH+(LGH .DUO*HUKDUG+HP FILE CODE DATE APPROVED BY (NAME, POSITION, SIGN.)
$UQH+(LGH
7KLVUHVHDUFKUHSRUWSURYLGHVUHVXOWVIURPDVWXG\RQOLYLQJFRQGLWLRQVDPRQJ SHRSOHZLWKDQGZLWKRXWGLVDELOLWLHVLQ1DPLELD7KHVWXG\ZDVXQGHUWDNHQLQ
ENGLISH NORWEGIAN
GROUP 1 1DWLRQDOVWXG\
GROUP 2 /LYLQJFRQGWLRQV
SELECTED BY AUTHOR 3HRSOHZLWKGLVDELOLWLHV
3UHIDFH
7KHUH DUH QXPHURXV UHDVRQV IRU FDUU\LQJ RXW VWXGLHV RQ OLYLQJ FRQGLWLRQV DPRQJ SHRSOH ZLWK GLVDELOLWLHV LQ 6RXWKHUQ $IULFD )LUVWO\ TXDOLW\ GDWD KDYH EHHQ LQ GHPDQG IURP WKH 8QLWHG 1DWLRQ VLQFH 6HFRQGO\ WR WKH H[WHQW WKDW QDWLRQDO 'LVDELOLW\ 3ROLFLHV KDYH EHHQ GHYHORSHG LQ 6RXWKHUQ $IULFD VSHFLILF IRUPXODWLRQV RQ WKH QHHG IRU GDWD RQ OLYLQJ FRQGLWLRQV DPRQJ SHRSOH ZLWK GLVDELOLWLHV DUH IRXQG LQ WKH 1DWLRQDO 'LVDELOLW\3ROLFLHVRI1DPLELD0/556RXWK$IULFD2'3 0DODZL GUDIW 2063:' DQG RWKHUV 7KLUGO\
DQG PRVW LPSRUWDQWO\ ZH ZKR KDYH FDUULHG RXW WKLV ZRUN VWURQJO\EHOLHYHWKDWVWXGLHVOLNHWKLVLQFRPELQDWLRQZLWKRWKHU HIIRUWV KDYH D VWURQJ SRWHQWLDO IRU FRQWULEXWLQJ WR DQ LPSURYHPHQWRIWKHVLWXDWLRQIRUSHRSOHZLWKGLVDELOLWLHVDVWKH\
KDYH LQ PDQ\ KLJKLQFRPH FRXQWULHV /DVWO\ WKH UHVHDUFKHUV EHKLQG WKLV UHSRUW DUH GULYHQ E\ DQ LQWHUHVW IRU WKH FRQFHSWXDO GHYHORSPHQW LQ WKH GLVDELOLW\ ILHOG DQG VHH WKLV UHVHDUFK DV D XQLTXH SRVVLELOLW\ IRU DSSO\LQJ FHUWDLQ HOHPHQWV RI WKH WKHRUHWLFDO PRGHO EHKLQG WKH UHFHQWO\ DGRSWHG ,QWHUQDWLRQDO
&ODVVLILFDWLRQRI)XQFWLRQLQJ'LVDELOLW\DQG+HDOWK,&)
7KHLQLWLDWLYHWRFDUU\RXWWKLVVWXG\LQ1DPLELDDQGWKHSDUDOOHO RQH LQ =LPEDEZH ZDV GHYHORSHG LQ FROODERUDWLRQ EHWZHHQ
6RXWKHUQ $IULFD )HGHUDWLRQ RI 'LVDEOHG 3HRSOH WKH 1RUZHJLDQ )HGHUDWLRQ RI 2UJDQLVDWLRQV RI 'LVDEOHG 3HRSOH ))2 DQG 6,17()8QLPHG0DMRUVWDNHKROGHUVLQ1DPLELDKDYHEHHQWKH 1DWLRQDO )HGHUDWLRQ RI 'LVDEOHG 3HRSOH LQ 1DPLELD 1)'31 0LQLVWU\RI/DQGV5HVHWWOHPHQWDQG5HKDELOLWDWLRQ0/55DQG 8QLYHUVLW\ RI 1DPLELD 0XOWL'LVFLSOLQDU\ 5HVHDUFK DQG
&RQVXOWDQF\ &HQWUH 05&& 0/55 KDV FRQWULEXWHG SROLWLFDOO\
HFRQRPLFDOO\DV ZHOODV GLUHFWO\ LQ WKH UHVHDUFK SURFHVV 05&&
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
$WWKHWLPHRISXEOLVKLQJWKLVUHSRUWDQLPSRUWDQWSKDVHRIWKLV LQLWLDWLYH KDV EHHQ FRPSOHWHG 7KH VWXG\ LQ =LPEDEZH ZLOO EH SXEOLVKHGODWHUWKLV\HDUZKLOHUHVXOWVIURPWKHVWXG\LQ0DODZL
7KH $IULFDQ 5HKDELOLWDWLRQ ,QVWLWXWH $5, LV WKH VSHFLDOL]HG DJHQF\ RI 2$8
FDQ EH H[SHFWHG HDUO\3DUDOOHO WR WKHVH VWXGLHV FDSDFLW\
EXLOGLQJSURJUDPVIRUWKHRUJDQLVDWLRQVRIGLVDEOHGSHRSOHKDYH EHHQGHYHORSHGDQGFDUULHGRXW$QLPSRUWDQWQH[WLQLWLDWLYHZLOO EH WR HVWDEOLVK D SURJUDP ZLWK WKH DLP RI HQVXULQJ WKDW WKH UHVXOWV IURP WKHVH VWXGLHV DUH DSSOLHG WR WKH EHQHILW RI SHRSOH ZLWKGLVDELOLWLHVLQWKH6RXWKHUQ$IULFD5HJLRQ
PHPEHU6WDWHVUHODWLQJWRGLVDELOLW\EDVHGLQ+DUDUH=LPEDEZH
7DEOHRIFRQWHQW
3UHIDFH 7DEOHRIFRQWHQW 6XPPDU\
,QWURGXFWLRQ
&RQWH[W
/LYLQJFRQGLWLRQVDPRQJSHRSOHZLWKGLVDELOLWLHVLQORZ
LQFRPHFRXQWULHV 'LVDELOLW\GDWDLQORZLQFRPHFRXQWULHV 5HOHYDQWVWXGLHVLQ1DPLELD
&RQFHSWV
'LVDELOLW\
/LYLQJFRQGLWLRQV 'LVDELOLW\DQGOLYLQJFRQGLWLRQV &RPELQLQJWZRWUDGLWLRQVDQG,&)
'HVLJQDQGPHWKRGV
5HVXOWV
5HVXOWVIURPWKHVWXG\RQOHYHORIOLYLQJ 'LVDELOLW\VWXG\
'LVFXVVLRQ
&RQFOXVLRQV
5HIHUHQFHV
6XPPDU\
7KH 1DWLRQDO UHSUHVHQWDWLYH VWXG\ RQ OLYLQJ FRQGLWLRQV DPRQJ SHRSOH ZLWK GLVDELOLWLHV LQ 1DPLELD LV WKH UHVXOW RI DQ LQWHUQDWLRQDOFRRSHUDWLRQEHWZHHQ6RXWKHUQ$IULFD)HGHUDWLRQRI WKH 'LVDEOHG 1DWLRQDO )HGHUDWLRQ RI 3HRSOH ZLWK 'LVDELOLWLHV LQ 1DPLELD 1)3'1 1RUZHJLDQ )HGHUDWLRQ RI 2UJDQLVDWLRQV RI 'LVDEOHG 3HRSOH ))2 8QLYHUVLW\ RI 1DPLELD 0XOWL'LVFLSOLQDU\
5HVHDUFK DQG &RQVXOWDQF\ &HQWUH 0LQLVWU\ RI /DQGV 5HVHWWOHPHQW DQG 5HKDELOLWDWLRQ 0/55 DQG 6,17() 8QLPHG 7KH VWXG\ KDV EHHQ IXQGHG E\ WKH $WODV $OOLDQFH RQ EHKDOI RI 1RUZHJLDQ$JHQF\IRU'HYHORSPHQW&RRSHUDWLRQ125$'DQG E\ 0/55 2WKHU WKDQ FDUU\LQJ RXW WKH VWXG\ WKH FROODERUDWLRQ SURMHFWKDVDOVRFRPSULVHGFDSDFLW\EXLOGLQJ
)RUPLQJ SDUW RI D 5HJLRQDO LQLWLDWLYH WR HVWDEOLVK EDVHOLQH GDWD RQ OLYLQJ FRQGLWLRQV DPRQJ SHRSOH ZLWK GLVDELOLWLHV LQ 6RXWKHUQ
$IULFD WKH VWXG\ LQ 1DPLELD LV WKH ILUVW WR EH SXEOLVKHG 7KH UHSRUW WKRXJK ODUJHO\ GHVFULSWLYH DOVR FRPSULVHV PRUH VRSKLVWLFDWHG DQDO\VHV )XUWKHU UHVXOWV IURP WKH VWXG\ ZLOO EH SUHVHQWHGODWHULQPRUHIRFXVHGVFLHQWLILFSXEOLFDWLRQV
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
$ WZRVWDJH VWUDWLILHG VDPSOLQJ ZDV FDUULHG RXW ZLWK HQXPHUDWLRQ DUHDV DV VWUDWD $ WRWDO RI KRXVHKROGV ZLWK GLVDEOHG PHPEHUV DQG KRXVHKROGV ZLWKRXW GLVDEOHG PHPEHUVZHUHVDPSOHG7KLVFRPSULVHVRIWKHSRSXODWLRQ LQ 1DPLELD +RXVHKROGV ZLWK GLVDEOHG PHPEHUV KDG ERWK D KLJKHU QXPEHU RI LQGLYLGXDOV DQG D KLJKHU QXPEHU RI FKLOGUHQ WKDQ GLG FRQWURO KRXVHKROGV 2Q PDULWDO VWDWXV PDUJLQDO GLIIHUHQFHVZHUHIRXQGEHWZHHQGLVDEOHGDQGQRQGLVDEOHG
6FKRRODWWHQGDQFHDVZHOODVZHOODVSHUIRUPDQFHPHDVXUHGDV VFKRRO JUDGH FRPSOHWHG LV FOHDUO\ ORZHU DPRQJ GLVDEOHG SHUVRQV $PRQJ FKLOGUHQ ROGHU WKDQ \HDUV RI WKH GLVDEOHG KDG QHYHU DWWHQGHG VFKRRO ZKLOH WKH FRUUHVSRQGLQJ ILJXUH IRU QRQGLVDEOHG ZDV $PRQJ WKRVH ZKR KDG
DWWHQGHGVFKRRORIWKHGLVDEOHGKDGFRPSOHWHGWK±WK JUDGHVDVWKHLUKLJKHVWJUDGHZKLOHWKHFRUUHVSRQGLQJILJXUHIRU QRQGLVDEOHGZDV
8QHPSOR\PHQW LV UDPSDQW LQ 1DPLELD ZLWK RI WKH FRQWUROV UHSRUWLQJ WKDW WKH\ DUH ³QRW FXUUHQWO\ ZRUNLQJ´ )RU GLVDEOHG SHUVRQV WKLV ILJXUH LV 2I WKRVH ZKR ZHUH HPSOR\HG WKH ODUJHVW JURXS ZDV GRPHVWLF ZRUNHU 0HDQ PRQWKO\ VDODU\ DPRQJ WKRVH ZKR ZRUN LV VLJQLILFDQWO\ ORZHU DPRQJ GLVDEOHG SHUVRQV 7KH PHDQ ILJXUH IRU QRQGLVDEOHG LV DSSUR[LPDWHO\KLJKHUWKDQIRUWKHGLVDEOHGOHVVWKDQ86' SHU GD\ DQG VRPHZKDW PRUH WKDQ 86' SHU GD\
UHVSHFWLYHO\
&RPSDULVRQ EHWZHHQ WKH WZR W\SHV RI KRXVHKROGV UHYHDOHG V\VWHPDWLF GLIIHUHQFHV 2Q PRVW RI WKH LPSRUWDQW LQGLFDWRUV RQ OHYHO RI OLYLQJ KRXVHKROGV ZLWK GLVDEOHG PHPEHUV VFRUH ORZHU WKDQ WKH FRQWURO KRXVHKROGV 7KLV JRHV IRU KRXVLQJ VWDQGDUG QXPEHU RI SRVVHVVLRQV DFFHVV WR LQIRUPDWLRQ PRQWKO\
H[SHQVHVDQGLQFRPH:KLOHPHDQLQFRPHLQDJRRGPRQWKIRU KRXVHKROGVZLWKGLVDEOHGPHPEHUVZDVDSSUR[LPDWHO\1 WKH FRUUHVSRQGLQJ ILJXUH IRU FRQWURO KRXVHKROGV ZDV 1 DSSUR[LPDWHO\86'DQG$QLPSRUWDQWUHDVRQIRUWKLV GLIIHUHQFH ZDV WKDW KRXVHKROGV ZLWK GLVDEOHG PHPEHUV KDG IHZHUSHRSOHZLWKVDODULHGZRUN7KHVWXG\DOVRUHYHDOHGWKDWD OLWWOH RYHU RQH IRXUWK RI UHVSRQGHQWV ZLWK GLVDELOLWLHV UHFHLYHG ILQDQFLDODVVLVWDQFHWKURXJKDGLVDELOLW\JUDQWRUSHQVLRQPRVWO\
D GLVDELOLW\ JUDQW IURP 6RFLDO 6HUYLFHV 'LYLVLRQ 2QH WKLUG RI WKRVHZKRUHFHLYHGJUDQWVKDGDQROGDJHSHQVLRQ
3UHYDOHQFHRI GLVDELOLW\LVHVWLPDWHGWR LQ XUEDQ DUHDV LQ UXUDO DUHDV DQG RYHUDOO :KLOH WKLV FRUUHVSRQGV ZHOO ZLWK UHVXOWV IURP WKH 1DWLRQDO 3RSXODWLRQ DQG +RXVLQJ &HQVXV QRW SXEOLVKHG LW LV ORZHU WKDQ WKH SUHYLRXV&HQVXVDQGFOHDUO\ORZHUWKDQ:+2HVWLPDWHVIRUORZ LQFRPHFRXQWULHV
'LVDELOLW\ ZDV IRXQG WR EH HYHQO\ VSUHDG ZLWK UHVSHFW WR DJH DOWKRXJKSUHYDOHQFHLVVRPHZKDWORZHUDPRQJ\RXQJ FKLOGUHQ 7KLV SURILOH UHVXOWV IURP WKH GHPRJUDSKLF VLWXDWLRQ LQ 1DPLELD ZLWKPRUHWKDQKDOIWKHSRSXODWLRQEHLQJXQGHU\HDUVRIDJH DQGUHODWLYHO\IHZHULQWKHDJHUDQJHV0RUHWKDQRI WKHGLVDEOHG KDGPRELOLW\GLIILFXOWLHVPDMRURU PLQRU GLVDELOLW\
SDUDO\VLV PRUH WKDQ RQH WKLUG UHSRUWHG VHQVRU\ LPSDLUPHQWV ZKLOH LQWHOOHFWXDO GLVDELOLWLHV OHDUQLQJ GLVRUGHUV DQG HPRWLRQDO GLVRUGHUV DPRXQWHG WR 7KH PDMRU FDXVHV RI GLVDELOLW\
ZDV UHSRUWHG WR EH LOOQHVV IURP ELUWK RU FRQJHQLWDO DQG DFFLGHQW &ORVH WR KDOI RI WKH UHVSRQGHQWV UHSRUWHG RQVHW RI GLVDELOLW\ EHIRUH WKH DJH RI \HDUV LQGLFDWLQJ D VHULRXV FKDOOHQJH WR KHDOWK VHUYLFHV IRU PRWKHUV DQG FKLOGUHQ LQ WKH FRXQWU\
+HDOWKVHUYLFHVZHUHRQWKHRWKHUKDQGIRXQGWREHDYDLODEOHIRU WKH ODUJH PDMRULW\ RI GLVDEOHG ZLWK WZR WKLUGV RI WKRVH ZKR QHHGHGWKLVVHUYLFHKDGDFWXDOO\UHFHLYHGLW3ULPDU\KHDOWKFDUH FOLQLFV DQG KRVSLWDOV DUH DOVR DPRQJ WKH PRVW DFFHVVLEOH IDFLOLWLHV 7KH PRVW QRWLFHDEOH VKRUWFRPLQJV ZLWK UHJDUGV WR VHUYLFHVZHUHYRFDWLRQDOWUDLQLQJFRXQVHOOLQJVHUYLFHVDVVLVWLYH GHYLFHV ZHOIDUH VHUYLFHV DQG HGXFDWLRQDO VHUYLFHV $OO ZHUH UHFHLYHG E\ OHVV WKDQ RI WKRVH ZKR FODLPHG WKDW WKH\
QHHGHGWKHVHVHUYLFHV
:KLOH DQ RYHUYLHZ RI DFFHVVLELOLW\ WR PDQ\ VHUYLFHV DQG LQVWLWXWLRQV JLYHV D PL[HG SLFWXUH LW LV FOHDUO\ WKH FDVH WKDW PDQ\LPSRUWDQWVHUYLFHVDUHUHSRUWHGQRWWREHDFFHVVLEOH2QO\
FODVVLI\ VFKRROV DV DFFHVVLEOH 3XEOLF WUDQVSRUW LV RQ WKH RWKHUKDQGUHSRUWHGWREHDFFHVVLEOHE\DOPRVW$OOLQDOO WKHUHVXOWVKHUHVKRZWKDWWKHUHLVDJUHDWSRWHQWLDOIRUPDNLQJ YDULRXV W\SHV RI VHUYLFHV DQG LQVWLWXWLRQV PRUH DFFHVVLEOH IRU SHRSOHZLWKGLVDELOLWLHV
$VVLVWLYHGHYLFHVDUHXVHGE\OHVVWKDQRQHILIWKRIWKHGLVDEOHG ZKLOHWZRWKLUGVQHHGVRPHW\SHRI GHYLFH,WLVIXUWKHUVKRZQ WKDWPRVWGHYLFHVDUHIXQFWLRQLQJZHOOWKDWPDQ\KDYHUHFHLYHG LQVWUXFWLRQV RQ WKH XVH EXW WKDW RQO\ RQH WKLUG RI GHYLFHV DUH PDLQWDLQHG SURIHVVLRQDOO\ 7KH PDMRULW\ KDV DFTXLUHG WKHLU GHYLFHVIURP*RYHUQPHQWKHDOWKVHUYLFHVZKLOHRQHWKLUGRIWKH GHYLFHVKDYHEHHQVXSSOLHGE\SULYDWHVRXUFHV
$ PDWUL[ ZDV GHYHORSHG IRU WKLV VWXG\ WR PDS LQGLYLGXDO¶V DFWLYLW\ OLPLWDWLRQV DQG SDUWLFLSDWLRQ UHVWULFWLRQV DFFRUGLQJ WR GLIIHUHQW SDUDPHWHUV RU GRPDLQV RU OLIH VLWXDWLRQV VHQVRU\
H[SHULHQFHV EDVLF OHDUQLQJ DQG DSSO\LQJ NQRZOHGJH FRPPXQLFDWLRQ PRELOLW\ VHOI FDUH GRPHVWLF OLIH LQWHUSHUVRQDO EHKDYLRXUV PDMRU OLIH DUHDV DQG FRPPXQLW\ VRFLDO DQG FLYLF OLIH ,W ZDV IRXQG WKDW LQGLYLGXDOV ZLWK SK\VLFDOPRELOLW\
LPSDLUPHQWV QHHGHG PRUH KHOS LQ WKHLU GDLO\ DFWLYLWLHV WKDQ RWKHU GLVDELOLW\ FDWHJRULHV ZKLOH SDUWLFXODUO\ KHDULQJ LPSDLUHG EXW DOVR WKRVH ZLWK VHHLQJ LPSDLUPHQWV QHHGHG OHVV KHOS WKDQ RWKHUV6HHLQJDQG KHDULQJLPSDLUHG DOVR UHSRUWHG OHVV DFWLYLW\
OLPLWDWLRQV DQG SDUWLFLSDWLRQ UHVWULFWLRQV ZKLOH WKRVH ZLWK FRPPXQLFDWLRQ DQG PHQWDOHPRWLRQDO SUREOHPV VFRUHG KLJKHVW DQGWKXVH[SHULHQFHPRUHEDUULHUVWRIXOOSDUWLFLSDWLRQLQVRFLHW\
$VVHVVLQJ WKH LQGLFHV RQ DFWLYLW\ OLPLWDWLRQV DQG SDUWLFLSDWLRQ UHVWULFWLRQV ZLWK UHVSHFW WR LQGLFDWRUV RI OLYLQJ FRQGLWLRQV UHYHDOHG WKDW WKUHH RXW RI IRXU RI WKHVH PHDVXUHV ZHUH DVVRFLDWHGZLWKLQGLFDWRUVRQOHYHORIOLYLQJ7KHPRUHVHYHUHD SHUVRQVGLVDELOLW\LVZLWKUHVSHFWWRGDLO\OLIHDFWLYLWLHVDQGVRFLDO SDUWLFLSDWLRQWKHORZHUWKHOHYHORIOLYLQJRIWKHSHUVRQ
7KH EDVHOLQH SURGXFHG WKURXJK WKLV VWXG\ FDQ EH DSSOLHG ODWHU IRU PRQLWRULQJ SXUSRVHV 5HVXOWV FDQ EH DSSOLHG GLUHFWO\ DV GRFXPHQWDWLRQ RI WKH VWDQGDUG RI OLYLQJ DPRQJ SHRSOH ZLWK GLVDELOLWLHVDQGWKHLUIDPLOLHVDQGDVDEDVLVIRUFRPSDULVRQZLWK QRQGLVDEOHG 7KLV LQIRUPDWLRQ LV SRWHQWLDOO\ XVHIXO ZKHQ
GHFLVLRQV DUH PDGH RQ XWLOLVDWLRQ RI PHDJUH UHVRXUFHV DV DUJXPHQWWRZDUGVSURVSHFWLYHGRQRUVRURWKHUIXQGLQJVRXUFHV DQG DV D WRRO IRU RUJDQLVDWLRQV RI GLVDEOHG SHRSOH LQ VHWWLQJ SULRULWLHV HGXFDWLQJ WKHLU RZQ PHPEHUV DQG WKH SRSXODWLRQ LQ JHQHUDODQGDVDEDVLVIRUDGYRFDF\
,W LV UHFRPPHQGHG WKDW WKH UHVXOWV IURP WKLV VWXG\ LV FRQVLGHUHGWRJHWKHUZLWKRWKHUUHOHYDQWVRXUFHVDVDEDVLVIRU GLDORJXHEHWZHHQDXWKRULWLHVSURIHVVLRQDOVDQGRUJDQLVDWLRQVRI SHRSOHZLWKGLVDELOLWLHVIRUVHWWLQJSULRULWLHVDQGIRUGHYHORSLQJ FRQFUHWHPHDVXUHVZLWKLQVHOHFWHGDUHDVRISULRULW\
,QWURGXFWLRQ
%DVHG RQ WKH FROODERUDWLRQ VLQFH EHWZHHQ WKH 6RXWKHUQ
$IULFD )HGHUDWLRQ RI 'LVDEOHG 3HRSOH 6$)2' DQG WKH 1RUZHJLDQ )HGHUDWLRQ RI 2UJDQLVDWLRQV RI 'LVDEOHG 3HRSOH ))2 DQ LQLWLDWLYH ZDV WDNHQ LQ WR FRQGXFW D VWXG\ RQ OLYLQJFRQGLWLRQVDPRQJSHRSOHZLWKGLVDELOLWLHVLQWKH6RXWKHUQ
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
7KH $WODV $OOLDQFH LV DQ RUJDQL]DWLRQ IRUPHG E\ 1RUZHJLDQ RUJDQL]DWLRQV RI GLVDEOHGSDWLHQWVDQGWKHLUUHODWLYHVFROODERUDWLQJRQVXSSRUWWRGLVDEOHGSHRSOH LQORZLQFRPHFRXQWULHVZZZDWODVDOOLDQVHQQR
6,17()8QLPHGLVDFRQWUDFWEDVHGUHVHDUFKLQVWLWXWHLQWKH6,17()*URXSDQG LVWKHODUJHVWKHDOWKVHUYLFHUHVHDUFKFRPSDQ\LQ1RUZD\ZZZVLQWHIQR
0XOWLGLVFLSOLQDU\5HVHDUFKDQG&RQVXOWDQF\&HQWUH6RFLDO6FLHQFH'LYLVLRQ
RXW LQ 0D\-XQH VHH OLVW RI LQYROYHG SDUWLHV LQ $SSHQGL[
7KLV UHSRUW SUHVHQWV UHVXOWV IURP WKH PDLQ GDWD FROOHFWLRQ LQ 1DPLELD5HVXOWVIURPWKHFRUUHVSRQGLQJVWXG\LQ=LPEDEZHZLOO EHSXEOLVKHGLQDVHSDUDWHUHSRUW
7KH GHYHORSPHQWDO REMHFWLYH IRU WKLV SURMHFW KDV EHHQ WR FRQWULEXWH WR WKH LPSURYHPHQW RI GLVDEOHG SHRSOH¶V OLYLQJ FRQGLWLRQVLQFOXGLQJDOVRWKHLUOHYHORISDUWLFLSDWLRQLQVRFLHW\
6SHFLILFDLPVLQFOXGH
- 7RFDUU\RXWUHSUHVHQWDWLYHQDWLRQZLGHVWXGLHVRQOLYLQJ FRQGLWLRQVDPRQJSHRSOHZLWKGLVDELOLWLHVLQ1DPLELDDQG
=LPEDEZH
- 7ROD\WKHJURXQGZRUNIRUUHSHDWHGDQGORQJWHUPGDWD FROOHFWLRQV RQ OLYLQJ FRQGLWLRQV DPRQJ SHRSOH ZLWK GLVDELOLWLHVLQWKHWZRFRXQWULHV
- 7R DVVLVW LQ FDSDFLW\ EXLOGLQJ DPRQJ GLVDEOHG SHRSOHV¶
RUJDQLVDWLRQV DQG DPRQJ UHOHYDQW SURIHVVLRQDOV DW PLQLVWHULDOOHYHO
- 7R DVVLVW WKH 6RXWKHUQ $IULFDQ )HGHUDWLRQ RI 'LVDEOHG 3HRSOH LQ WKH HVWDEOLVKPHQW RI 7KH 'LVDELOLW\ 5HVRXUFH
&HQWUH IRU 6RXWKHUQ $IULFD WKURXJK WUDLQLQJ DQG WHFKQLFDODVVLVWDQFH
)RUWKHVWXG\RQOLYLQJFRQGLWLRQVVSHFLILFREMHFWLYHVRUUHVHDUFK WRSLFVKDYHEHHQ
- 'HYHORSPHQWRIDQDGDSWHGGHVLJQIRUVWXGLHVRQOLYLQJ FRQGLWLRQV DPRQJ SHRSOH ZLWK GLVDELOLWLHV LQ 6RXWKHUQ
$IULFD
- (VWDEOLVKPHQW RI D EDVHOLQH RQ WKH OHYHO RI OLYLQJ RI SHRSOHZLWKGLVDELOLWLHVLQ1DPLELD
- 'HVFULSWLRQ DQG DQDO\VHV RI OLYLQJ FRQGLWLRQV DPRQJ SHRSOHZLWKGLVDELOLWLHVLQ1DPLELD
- &RPSDULVRQRIOLYLQJFRQGLWLRQVDPRQJSHRSOHZLWKDQG ZLWKRXWGLVDELOLWLHV
- $QDO\VHV RI VRFLRGHPRJUDSKLF GLVWULEXWLRQ RI OLYLQJ FRQGLWLRQVDPRQJGLVDEOHGDQGQRQGLVDEOHG
- $SSO\LQJ FRPSRQHQWV IURP WKH ,QWHUQDWLRQDO
&ODVVLILFDWLRQRI)XQFWLRQLQJ'LVDELOLW\DQG+HDOWK,&) LQ RUGHU WR WHVW WKHLU DSSOLFDELOLW\ LQ WKH FRQWH[W RI D ORZLQFRPHFRXQWU\
- $QDO\VH WKH UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ ,&) FRPSRQHQWV DQG VWDQGDUGRIOLYLQJ
7KLV UHSRUW ZLOO FHQWHU DURXQG WKHVH VSHFLILF REMHFWLYHV DQG UHVHDUFK WRSLFV 2WKHU SXEOLFDWLRQV ZLOO IROORZ WKLV UHSRUW ZLWK VSHFLILFIRFXVRQVFUHHQLQJIRUGLVDELOLW\SUHYDOHQFHDQGWKH,&) PRGHODFWLYLWLHVDQGSDUWLFLSDWLRQ
&RQWH[W
+LVWRU\
7KH DUHD WKDW FRPSULVHV 1DPLELD WRGD\ EHFDPH D *HUPDQ SURWHFWRUDWHLQH[FHSWIRUWKHVPDOODUHDVXUURXQGLQJWKH GHHSZDWHU SRUW :DOYLV %D\ WKDW ZDV GHFODUHG %ULWLVK 7HUULWRU\
LQ'XULQJ:RUOG:DU,1DPLELDZDVRFFXSLHG E\6RXWK
$IULFDDQGODWHUGHFODUHGDPDQGDWHGWHUULWRU\XQGHUWKH/HDJXH RI 1DWLRQV DGPLQLVWHUHG E\ 6RXWK $IULFD RQ EHKDOI RI %ULWDLQ 6XEVHTXHQWO\WKH8QLWHG1DWLRQVUHIXVHGWRSODFHWKHWHUULWRU\
XQGHU WUXVWHHVKLS DQG GHPDQGHG 6RXWK $IULFDV ZLWKGUDZDO ,Q WKH V WKH 2YDPERODQG 3HRSOHV &RQJUHVV ZLFK ODWHU EHFDPHWKH6RXWK:HVW$IULFD3HRSOHV2UJDQLVDWLRQ>6:$32@
HPHUJHGDQGOHGWKHVWUXJJOHDJDLQVW6RXWK$IULFDQRFFXSDWLRQ 7KH WHUULWRU\ ZRQ LQGHSHQGHQFH LQ 6:$32 OHDGHU 6DP 1XMRPD EHFDPH SUHVLGHQW IROORZLQJ YLFWRU\ LQ 81VXSHUYLVHG SROOV
6RXUFHV
World Bank (KWWSZZZZRUOGEDQNRUJDIUQDKWP) Fact sheet on Namibia 2002 CIA (KWWSZZZRGFLJRYFLDSXEOLFDWLRQVIDFWERRNJHRVZDKWPO) Fact sheet on Namibia 2002
el Obeid S, Mendelson J, Lejars M, Forster N, Brulé G. Health in Namibia: Progress and Challenges. Ministry of Health and Social Services, Service for Co-operation and Cultural Affairs of the French Embassy in Namibia, 2001.
(KWWSZZZKHDOWKQHWRUJQDJUQPKVVKWPKHDOWKLQQDPKWP)
(FRQRP\
1DPLELDV HFRQRP\ UHOLHV KHDYLO\ RQ H[WUDFWLRQ DQG SURFHVVLQJ RI PLQHUDOV DV ZHOO DV RQ SURFHVVHG ILVK DQG RWKHU PDQXIDFWXUHUV IRU H[SRUW 1DPLELD LV WKH ZRUOGV ILIWK ODUJHVW SURGXFHU RI XUDQLXP DQG D SULPDU\ VRXUFH RI JHPTXDOLW\
GLDPRQGV$JULFXOWXUHLVGRPLQDWHGE\FDWWOHDQGVKHHSUDLVLQJ 7KH FRXQWU\ KDV RQH RI WKH ULFKHVW SRWHQWLDO ILVKHULHV LQ WKH ZRUOG 3ROLFLHV DGRSWHG VLQFH LQGHSHQGHQFH KDYH DLPHG DW VXVWDLQLQJ HFRQRPLF JURZWK GLYHUVLI\LQJ WKH FRXQWU\V SURGXFWLYHEDVHDQGDWWUDFWLQJIRUHLJQLQYHVWRUV
%HWZHHQ DQG UHDO *'3 JURZWK DYHUDJHG SHUFHQW 6LQFH WKHQ *'3 JURZWK KDV VORZHG GRZQ WR DQ DYHUDJH RI DERXWGXULQJ1DPLELDV*13SHUFDSLWDLVDERXW EXWLQFRPHGLVWULEXWLRQLVRQHRIWKHPRVWXQHTXDOLQWKH ZRUOG %DVHG RQ WKH SRSXODWLRQ HVWLPDWH RI PLOOLRQ WRWDOH[SHQGLWXUHVRIWKHULFKHVWSHRSOHSHUFHQWRIWKH SRSXODWLRQHTXDOWKHWRWDOH[SHQGLWXUHVRIWKHSRRUHVW SHRSOHSHUFHQWRIWKHSRSXODWLRQ7KHUHDUHPDUNHGXUEDQ
±UXUDOGLIIHUHQFHVZLWKUHJDUGVWRHFRQRP\DQGLQIUDVWUXFWXUH
3ROLWLFV
7KHFRQVWLWXWLRQPDQGDWHVDPXOWLSDUW\GHPRFUDWLFV\VWHP IRU 1DPLELD 7KH SUHVLGHQW DQG WKH VHDW 1DWLRQDO $VVHPEO\
DUHHOHFWHGE\XQLYHUVDODGXOWVXIIUDJHHYHU\ILYH\HDUV6:$32 UHPDLQVWKHOHDGLQJSROLWLFDOSDUW\LQWKHFRXQWU\3UHVLGHQW6DP
1XMRPD ZKR KDG EHHQ DSSRLQWHG +HDG RI 6WDWH E\ WKH ILUVW SDUOLDPHQW ZDV GLUHFWO\ HOHFWHG LQ DQG $ UHVKXIIOH RI&DELQHWPLQLVWHUVWRRNSODFHLQ$XJXVW
*HRJUDSK\
1DPLELD OLHV LQ 6RXWKHUQ $IULFD ERUGHULQJ WKH 6RXWK $WODQWLF 2FHDQEHWZHHQ$QJRODDQG6RXWK$IULFD7KHFRXQWU\FRYHUVD WRWDO DUHD RI VT NP RI ZKLFK UHSRUWV LQGLFDWH WKDW VT NP LV ZDWHU 7KH FOLPDWH LV FKDUDFWHULVHG E\ GHVHUW FRQGLWLRQV KRW DQG GU\ ZLWK VSDUVH DQG HUUDWLF UDLQIDOO 7KH WHUUDLQLVPRVWO\KLJKSODWHDXERUGHUHGE\WKH1DPLELDQ'HVHUW DORQJWKHFRDVWDQGWKH.DODKDUL'HVHUWLQWKHHDVW
3HRSOH
3UHOLPLQDU\ UHVXOWV RI WKH &HQVXV SODFH WKH FXUUHQW SRSXODWLRQ RI 1DPLELD DW PLOOLRQ &RQVLGHULQJ WKH DERYH DUHDWKHDYHUDJHGHQVLW\LVMXVWRYHUSHRSOHSHUVTNP7KH SRSXODWLRQLVKRZHYHUVSUHDGYHU\XQHYHQO\DFURVVWKHFRXQWU\
ZLWKODUJHDUHDVFRPSOHWHO\XQLQKDELWHG,WLVHVWLPDWHGWKDWLQ RIWKHSRSXODWLRQZDVOLYLQJLQXUEDQDUHDV
2WKHU VRXUFHV :RUOG %DQN HVWLPDWHV GHVFULEH WKH DJH VWUXFWXUH
\HDUVPDOHIHPDOH
\HDUVPDOHIHPDOH
\HDUVDQGRYHUPDOHIHPDOH ,WLVHVWLPDWHGWKDWSHUFHQWRI1DPLELDQVDUHEHORZ\HDUV RIDJH
7KH SRSXODWLRQ JURZWK UDWH LV HVWLPDWHG DW ZKLOH WKH ELUWKDQGGHDWKUDWHVDUHELUWKVSRSXODWLRQDQG GHDWKVSRSXODWLRQUHVSHFWLYHO\
7ZROHDGLQJLQGLFDWRUVRI GHYHORSPHQW DUH WKH ,QIDQW PRUWDOLW\
UDWH,05GHDWKVEHIRUHVWELUWKGD\OLYHELUWKVDQGFKLOG PRUWDOLW\ UDWH &05 GHDWKV XQGHU DJH \HDUV OLYH ELUWKV
1DPLELD KDV UHFRUGHG VRPH PDMRU DGYDQFHPHQWV LQ UHGXFLQJ ERWK LQIDQW DQG FKLOG PRUWDOLW\ GXULQJ WKH V +HDOWK LQ 1DPLELD UHSRUWV D GHFOLQH LQ ,05 IURP OLYH ELUWKVLQWRLQ'XULQJWKHVDPHSHULRGWKH&05 IHOO IURP GHDWKV EHIRUH \HDUV \HDUROGV WR LQ /LIH H[SHFWDQF\ DW ELUWK RQ WKH RWKHU KDQG KDV QRW LPSURYHG )RU WKH WRWDO SRSXODWLRQ OLIH H[SHFWDQF\ LV FXUUHQWO\
HVWLPDWHG DW DERXW \HDUV IRU IHPDOHV \HDUV DQG IRU PDOHV \HDUV GRZQ IURP \HDUV LQ 7KLV GHFOLQH LV SULPDULO\GXHWRWKH+,9$,'6HSLGHPLF
7RWDO IHUWLOLW\ UDWH LV FKLOGUHQ ERUQZRPDQ HVWLPDWHV RI WKH +,9$,'6 VLWXDWLRQV VHW WKH DGXOW SUHYDOHQFH UDWH DW ,W LV HVWLPDWHG WKDW DV PDQ\ DV SHRSOH DUH FXUUHQWO\OLYLQJZLWK+,9$,'6
1DPLELD LV FRPSRVHG RI GLIIHUHQW HWKQLF JURXSV $ERXW RI WKH SRSXODWLRQ EHORQJ WR WKH 2YDPER WULEH DQG WR WKH .DYDQJRV WULEH RWKHU HWKQLF JURXSV DUH +HUHUR 'DPDUD 1DPD &DSULYLDQ %XVKPHQ %DVWHU 7VZDQD$URXQGRIWKHSRSXODWLRQLVZKLWHWR RI WKH SRSXODWLRQ DUH &KULVWLDQ /XWKHUDQ DW OHDVW LQGLJHQRXVEHOLHIVPDNHXSIRUWKHUHPDLQLQJWR
,WLVHVWLPDWHGWKDWRIWKHWRWDOSRSXODWLRQPDOHVDQG IHPDOHVDUHOLWHUDWHGHILQHGDVDJHDQGRYHUDQGFDQ UHDGDQGZULWH
0DS RI 1DPLELD 6RXUFH 3RSXODWLRQ &HQVXV
/LYLQJFRQGLWLR QVDPRQJSHRSOHZLWK GLVDELOLWLHVLQORZLQFRPHFRXQWULHV
$FFRUGLQJWR81HVWLPDWHVWKHSRSXODWLRQRIGLVDEOHGSHRSOHLQ WKHZRUOGLVEHWZHHQDQGPLOOLRQSHRSOH7KLVLVEDVHG RQDHVWLPDWHGSUHYDOHQFHUDWH:+2LQWHQGHGWR FRYHUVHYHUHPRGHUDWHDQGPLOGGLVDELOLWLHV7KHODUJHPDMRULW\
RI GLVDEOHG SHRSOH OLYH LQ GHYHORSLQJ RU ORZLQFRPH FRXQWULHV YHU\ RIWHQ OLYLQJ ZLWKRXW RSWLPDO WHFKQLFDO PHGLFDO RU VRFLDO VXSSRUWWKDWFRXOGKDYHLPSURYHGWKHLUOHYHORIOLYLQJFRQGLWLRQV FRQVLGHUDEO\'LVDEOHGSHRSOHDUHRIWHQPDUJLQDOLVHGDQGEHORQJ WRWKHSRRUHVWVHJPHQWVRIVRFLHW\81
7KH VLWXDWLRQ IRU GLVDEOHG SHRSOH LQ ORZLQFRPH FRXQWULHV LV RI FRQFHUQIRU*RYHUQPHQWV1RQ*RYHUQPHQWDO2UJDQLVDWLRQVDV ZHOODV IRU WKH ,QWHUQDWLRQDO &RPPXQLW\ 7KH ULJKWV RI SHUVRQV ZLWKGLVDELOLWLHVKDYHEHHQWKHVXEMHFWRIPXFKDWWHQWLRQLQWKH 8QLWHG1DWLRQVDQGRWKHULQWHUQDWLRQDORUJDQLVDWLRQVRYHUDORQJ SHULRG RI WLPH 7KH ,QWHUQDWLRQDO <HDU RI 'LVDEOHG 3HUVRQV DQG WKH 8QLWHG 1DWLRQV 'HFDGH RI 'LVDEOHG 3HUVRQV ± FXOPLQDWHG LQ WKH :RUOG 3URJUDPPH RI $FWLRQ
/RZLQFRPHFRXQWULHVZLOOEHDSSOLHGWKURXJKRXWWKLVUHSRUWWRFRYHUWHUPVOLNH GHYHORSLQJ FRXQWULHV QRQLQGXVWULDOL]HG FRXQWULHV HWF /LNHZLVH KLJKLQFRPH FRXQWULHVDUHDSSOLHGWRFRYHUGHYHORSHGFRXQWULHVLQGXVWULDOL]HGFRXQWULHVHWF
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
.QRZOHGJHDERXWWKHFXUUHQWVLWXDWLRQLVLPSRUWDQWDVDWRROIRU DGYRFDF\DQGSUDFWLFDODFWLRQ,WLVDSUHUHTXLVLWHZKHQDJUHHLQJ RQ DFFHSWDEOH VWDQGDUGV VHWWLQJ SULRULWLHV DQG SODQQLQJ IRU UHTXLUHG LPSURYHPHQWV :LWKRXW WKH QHFHVVDU\ NQRZOHGJH
*RYHUQPHQWV 1*2V DQG ,QWHUQDWLRQDO 2UJDQLVDWLRQV DUH PRUH RU OHVV IRUFHG WR ZRUN DUELWUDULO\ RQ D KLW RU PLVV EDVLV 7KXV UHVRXUFHV FDQQRW EH GLVWULEXWHG DQG XWLOLVHG LQ D UDWLRQDO HIILFLHQWPDQQHU8QIRUWXQDWHO\WKHODFNRINQRZOHGJHLVFOHDUO\
PRVWSURQRXQFHGLQGHYHORSLQJFRXQWULHVZLWKVFDUFHUHVRXUFHV DQGWKXVZLWKWKHJUHDWHVW QHHGIRU FRVWHIIHFWLYHVWUDWHJLHV LQ RUGHU WR LPSURYH WKH OLYLQJ FRQGLWLRQV DPRQJ SHRSOH ZLWK GLVDELOLWLHV
%RWK WKH :RUOG 3URJUDPPH RI $FWLRQ DQG WKH 6WDQGDUG 5XOHV FRPSULVH H[SOLFLW IRUPXODWLRQV WKDW UHIOHFW WKH QHHG IRU
LQIRUPDWLRQ GDWD FROOHFWLRQ DQG UHVHDUFK RQ WKH VLWXDWLRQ RI GLVDEOHG SHRSOH DQG SDUWLFXODUO\ VR LQ GHYHORSLQJ FRXQWULHV
$FFRUGLQJ WR WKH :RUOG 3URJUDPPH RI $FWLRQ PHPEHU VWDWHV VKRXOG GHYHORS D SURJUDPPH RI UHVHDUFK RQ WKH FDXVHV W\SHV DQGLQFLGHQFHRILPSDLUPHQWDQGGLVDELOLW\HFRQRPLFDQGVRFLDO FRQGLWLRQVRIGLVDEOHGSHUVRQVDVZHOODVRQREVWDFOHVWKDWDIIHFW WKHLU OLYHV 6XFK IRUPXODWLRQV DUH DOVR IRXQG LQ WKH 'LVDELOLW\
3ROLF\ RI 1DPLELD 6RXWK $IULFD DQG LQ WKH GUDIW SROLF\
GRFXPHQWVRRQWREHDGRSWHGLQ0DODZLDPRQJRWKHUV
'LVDELOLW\GDWDLQORZLQFRPHFRXQWULHV
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
0/55 1DWLRQDO 3ROLF\ RQ 'LVDELOLW\ :LQGKRHN 0LQLVWU\ RI /DQGV 5HVHWWOHPHQWDQG5HKDELOLWDWLRQ
2IILFHRIWKH'HSXW\3UHVLGHQW:KLWH3DSHURQRDQ,QWHJUDWHG1DWLRQDO 'LVDELOLXW\6WUDWHJ\3UHWRULD2IILFHRIWKH'HSXW\3UHVLGHQW
0DODZL*RYHUQPHQW'UDIW1DWLRQDO'LVDELOLW\3ROLF\2IILFHRIWKH0LQLVWHURI 6WDWH5HVSRQVLEOHIRU3HUVRQVZLWK'LVDELOLWLHV'HFHPEHU
TXDOLW\ RI H[LVWLQJ GDWD DQG WKDW TXDOLW\ SUREOHPV DUH PRVW SURQRXQFHGLQGHYHORSLQJFRXQWULHV
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
7KH6WDWLVWLFV'LYLVLRQRIWKH8QLWHG1DWLRQVKDVHVWDEOLVKHGWKH 'LVDELOLW\6WDWLVWLFV'DWDEDVHIRU0LFURFRPSXWHUV',67$7DQG LV FXUUHQWO\ ZRUNLQJ RQ WKH GHYHORSPHQW RI D V\VWHP IRU GDWD FROOHFWLRQ ',67$7 FRQWDLQV GLVDELOLW\ VWDWLVWLFV IURP QDWLRQDO KRXVHKROG VXUYH\V SRSXODWLRQ FHQVXVHV DQG SRSXODWLRQ RU UHJLVWUDWLRQ V\VWHPV 7KH HGLWLRQ RI WKH 'LVDELOLW\
6WDWLVWLFV FRPSHQGLXP FRYHUV QDWLRQV DPRQJ WKHP D IHZ
$IULFDQFRXQWULHV81
$VH[DPSOHVRILQIRUPDWLRQIURP$IULFDQFRXQWULHVFRQWDLQHGLQ WKLV FRPSHQGLXP WKH QDWLRQDO GLVDELOLW\ SUHYDOHQFH UDWH LQ 6ZD]LODQG LV JLYHQ DW DSSUR[LPDWHO\ 5HYLHZLQJ WKH DJH VSHFLILFILJXUHVIRUWKHUXUDOSRSXODWLRQLQILYH$IULFDQFRXQWULHV
&RPRURV (J\SW (WKLRSLD 0DOL DQG 7XQLVLD WKH UDWH YDULHV IURP DURXQG ± LQ WKH \RXQJHU DJH JURXSV XQGHU
\HDUVDQGJUDGXDOO\LQFUHDVHVZLWKDJHWRUHDFKDOHYHORI±
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
7KH +XPDQ 'HYHORSPHQW 5HSRUW WKDW KDV EHHQ SXEOLVKHG E\
81'3VLQFHLQFOXGHGIURPWKHHGLWLRQ81'3 HVWLPDWHVRIWKHSUHYDOHQFHRIGLVDELOLWLHVDVSHUFHQWDJHRIWRWDO SRSXODWLRQ LQ HDFK FRXQWU\ )LJXUHV IRU 1DPLELD DUH KRZHYHU PLVVLQJLQWKHWDEOHZKHUHDVWKHSUHYDOHQFHLVLQ=DPELD DQG LQ 0DODZL $PRQJ WKH EODFN SRSXODWLRQ LQ 6RXWK
$IULFD SUHYDOHQFH RI GLVDELOLW\ VLJKW KHDULQJVSHHFK SK\VLFDO GLVDELOLW\ DQG PHQWDO GLVDELOLW\ KDV EHHQ HVWLPDWHG WR KWWSZZZFVV JRY6$%ULHI7DEOH+70 7ZR VHSDUDWH
VWXGLHV LQ 6RXWK $IULFD FRORUHG XUEDQ DQG EODFN UXUDO FRPPXQLWLHVKDYHFRPHXSZLWKSUHYDOHQFHUDWHVRIDQG .DW]HQHOOHQERJHQ HW DO &RQFKD DQG /RUHQ]R
0RVWFRXQWULHVLQ$IULFD1DPLELDLQFOXGHGKDYHFDUULHGRXWDQG SXEOLVKHGSRSXODWLRQFHQVXVHVWKDWSURYLGHVRPHLQIRUPDWLRQRQ OLYLQJ FRQGLWLRQV 8QIRUWXQDWHO\ LQIRUPDWLRQ RQ GLVDELOLWLHV DQG WKHVLWXDWLRQRIGLVDEOHGSHRSOHKDYHUDUHO\EHHQLQFOXGHG7KH SRSXODWLRQFHQVXVHVDIWHUWKH\HDUDUHKRZHYHUH[SHFWHG WR FRYHU GLVDELOLW\ 81 IROORZLQJ WKH UHYLVLRQ RI WKH FHQVXVUHFRPPHQGDWLRQV
7KH QDWLRQDO GLVDELOLW\ VXUYH\ XQGHUWDNHQ LQ 6RXWK $IULFD LQ UHSUHVHQWVDQLPSRUWDQWH[FHSWLRQWRWKHJHQHUDOODFN RI UHSUHVHQWDWLYH 1DWLRQDO GDWD LQ WKH UHJLRQ $ 1DWLRQDO UHSUHVHQWDWLYH VXUYH\ RI KRXVHKROGV ZDV FDUULHG RXW WR GHWHUPLQHWKHSUHYDOHQFHRIGLVDELOLWLHVDVZHOODVGHVFULEHWKH GLVDELOLW\ H[SHULHQFH DV UHSRUWHG E\ GLVDEOHG SHRSOH RU WKHLU SUR[\ UHSRUWHUV 6FKQHLGHU HW DO 7KH IRFXV RI WKH VXUYH\ ZDV RQ WKH ³WUDGLWLRQDO´ FDWHJRULHV RI LPSDLUPHQWV DQG WKH UHVXOWV DUH D FRXQW RI WKH QXPEHU RI SHRSOH ZLWK UHSRUWHG GLVDELOLWLHV RU DFWLYLW\ OLPLWDWLRQV DV ZHOO DV D TXDQWLWDWLYH
1DWLRQDO &HQVXVHV KDYH UHFHQWO\ EHHQ FDUULHG RXW LQ ERWK 1DPLELD DQG
=LPEDEZH ,Q ERWK FRXQWULHV VFUHHQLQJ TXHVWLRQV LQIOXHQFHG E\ DQ DFWLYLW\EDVHG XQGHUVWDQGLQJRIGLVDELOLW\ KDYH EHHQ LQFOXGHG $W WKH WLPH RI ZULWLQJ WKLV UHSRUW QR UHVXOWV KDYH KRZHYHU EHHQ UHSRUWHG IURP WKH WZR FHQVXVHV
DQDO\VLV RI WKH UHVSRQGHQWV¶ SHUVRQDO H[SHULHQFH RI WKHLU GLVDELOLW\ $FFRUGLQJ WR WKLV VWXG\ GLVDELOLW\ SUHYDOHQFH UDWHV YDULHGEHWZHHQDQGLQWKHGLIIHUHQWSURYLQFHV
$OWKRXJK WKH SURJUHVV PDGH LQ WKLV ILHOG LV TXLWH VXEVWDQWLDO GDWDRQGLVDELOLW\DUHVWLOOKDUGWRFRPHE\DQGDUHVLJQLILFDQWE\
WKHLU DEVHQFH LQ GHYHORSPHQW UHSRUWV $ IXUWKHU SRLQW WR EH PHQWLRQHG KHUH LV WKDW WKH LQWHUQDWLRQDO PRQLWRULQJ V\VWHP GHYHORSHG E\ WKH 8QLWHG 1DWLRQV ZLOO ODUJHO\ EH OLPLWHG WR D VPDOO QXPEHU RI VWDQGDUGLVHG LQGLFDWRUV LQWHQGHG IRU LQWHUQDWLRQDO FRPSDULVRQ 0RUH FRPSUHKHQVLYH DQG FXOWXUDOO\
DGDSWHG VWXGLHV RI OLYLQJ FRQGLWLRQV ZLOO EH QHFHVVDU\ LQ GHYHORSLQJ FRXQWULHV LQ RUGHU WR HVWDEOLVK D NQRZOHGJH EDVLV WKDWFDQJXLGHGHYHORSPHQWRISROLF\DQGSUDFWLFH)XUWKHUPRUH WKH FXUUHQW FRQFHSW RI OHYHO RI OLYLQJ FRQGLWLRQV RIIHUV D ZLGHU DSSURDFK WR WKH PHDVXUHPHQW RI LQGLYLGXDOV¶ ZHOIDUH IRFXVLQJ RQLQGLYLGXDOV¶FDSDELOLWLHVWKHXWLOLVDWLRQRIWKHVHFDSDELOLWLHVDV ZHOODVHTXDOLW\RIRSSRUWXQLWLHVLQDGGLWLRQWKHPRUHOLPLWHG FODVVLFDO HFRQRPLF RU PDWHULDO LQGLFDWRUV 7KXV WKH OHYHO RI OLYLQJ FRQFHSW DV DSSOLHG WRGD\ FRQFXUV ZLWK VRPH RI WKH IXQGDPHQWDO LGHDV FRQFHUQLQJ SDUWLFLSDWLRQ DQG HTXDOLW\ RI RSSRUWXQLWLHVXQGHUO\LQJWKH:RUOG3URJUDPPHRI$FWLRQDVZHOO DVWKH6WDQGDUG5XOHV
5HOHYDQWVWXGLHVLQ1DPLELD
,Q1DPLELDWKH1DWLRQDO+RXVLQJDQG3RSXODWLRQ&HQVXVLQ FRQWDLQHG D VPDOO QXPEHU RI TXHVWLRQV RQ GLVDELOLW\
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
&RQFHSWV
'LVDELOLW\ DQG OLYLQJ FRQGLWLRQV DUH FRUH FRQFHSWV LQ WKH VWXG\
SUHVHQWHG LQ WKLV UHSRUW 7KH XQGHUVWDQGLQJ RI WKHVH FRQFHSWV KDVJRQHWKURXJKLQWHUHVWLQJGHYHORSPHQWVLQUHFHQW\HDUVDQG WKHUH DUH REYLRXVO\ GLIIHUHQW ZD\V RI FRQFHLYLQJ WKHP ,Q DGGLWLRQLWLVLPSRUWDQWWREHDZDUHWKDWWKHXQGHUVWDQGLQJDQG DSSOLFDWLRQ RI WKHVH FRQFHSWV ZLOO YDU\ IURP RQH VRFLRFXOWXUDO FRQWH[W WR DQRWKHU :K\WH ,QJVWDG $V WKH FRQFHSWV DUH LPSRUWDQW IRU WKH GHVLJQ RI WKH VWXG\ DV ZHOO DV IRU WKH DQDO\VHV DQG XQGHUVWDQGLQJ RI UHVXOWV VRPH FODULILFDWLRQV DUH QHFHVVDU\
'LVDELOLW\
'XULQJ WKH V WKHUH ZDV D VWURQJ UHDFWLRQ DPRQJ UHSUHVHQWDWLYHVRIRUJDQLVDWLRQVRISHUVRQVZLWKGLVDELOLWLHVDQG SURIHVVLRQDOV LQ WKH ILHOG RI GLVDELOLW\ DJDLQVW WKH WKHQ FXUUHQW WHUPLQRORJ\7KHQHZFRQFHSWRIGLVDELOLW\ZDVPRUHIRFXVHGRQ WKH FORVH FRQQHFWLRQ EHWZHHQ WKH OLPLWDWLRQV H[SHULHQFHG E\
LQGLYLGXDOV ZLWK GLVDELOLWLHV WKH GHVLJQ DQG VWUXFWXUH RI WKHLU HQYLURQPHQWVDQGWKHDWWLWXGHRIWKHJHQHUDOSRSXODWLRQ5HFHQW GHYHORSPHQWKDVVHHQDVKLIWLQWHUPLQRORJ\DQGDQLQFUHDVLQJ WHQGHQF\ WRZDUGV YLHZLQJ WKH GLVDELOLW\ FRPSOH[ DV D SURFHVV
WKH GLVDEOHPHQW SURFHVV LQYROYLQJ D QXPEHU RI GLIIHUHQW HOHPHQWVRQLQGLYLGXDODQGVRFLHWDOOHYHOV
,&)
7KH DGRSWLRQ RI WKH :RUOG +HDOWK 2UJDQLVDWLRQ¶V ,QWHUQDWLRQDO
&ODVVLILFDWLRQRI)XQFWLRQLQJ'LVDELOLW\DQG+HDOWK:+2 UHSUHVHQWV D PLOHVWRQH LQ WKH GHYHORSPHQW RI WKH GLVDELOLW\
FRQFHSW )URP DQG WKH ILUVW FODVVLILFDWLRQ 7KH ,QWHUQDWLRQDO &ODVVLILFDWLRQ RI ,PSDLUPHQWV 'LVDELOLWLHV DQG +DQGLFDSV ,&,'+ :+2 D \HDU SURFHVV KDV UHVXOWHG LQ VKLIW LQ WKH :+2 FRQFHSWXDO IUDPHZRUN IURP D PHGLFDO PRGHO LPSDLUPHQW EDVHG WR D QHZ VFKHPH WKDW IRFXVHV RQ OLPLWDWLRQV LQ DFWLYLWLHV DQG VRFLDO SDUWLFLSDWLRQ
$OWKRXJK QRW UHSUHVHQWLQJ D FRPSOHWH VKLIW IURP D VWULFWO\
PHGLFDOWRDVWULFWO\VRFLDOPRGHOWKHGHYHORSPHQWFXOPLQDWLQJ ZLWK ,&) QHYHUWKHOHVV LPSOLHV D PXFK ZLGHU XQGHUVWDQGLQJ RI GLVDELOLW\DQGWKHGLVDEOHPHQWSURFHVV
)LJXUH7KH0RGHORI)XQFWLRQLQJDQG'LVDELOLW\
+HDOWK&RQGLWLRQ GLVRUGHUGLVHDVH
%RG\IXQFWLRQV $FWLYLW\ 3DUWLFLSDWLRQ DQGVWUXFWXUH
(QYLURQPHQWDO3HUVRQDO IDFWRUVIDFWRUV
$SSOLFDWLRQ
7KH FRQFHSWXDO GHYHORSPHQW IURP ,&,'+ WR ,&) LV LPSRUWDQW KHUHDVWKLVVKLIWDOVRKDVDPHWKRGRORJLFDOSDUDOOHOLQWKDWWKH FODVVLILFDWLRQV IRUP D EDVLV IRU WKH FROOHFWLRQ RI VWDWLVWLFDO GDWD RQ GLVDELOLW\ 7KH FXUUHQW VWXG\ GRHV QRW UHSUHVHQW DQ DSSOLFDWLRQRI,&)DQGLWKDVQRWEHHQWKHLQWHQWLRQWRWHVWWKH QHZFODVVLILFDWLRQDVVXFK5DWKHUWKHFXUUHQWVWXG\LVLQVSLUHG E\WKHFRQFHSWXDOEDVLVIRU,&)DQGKDVDWWHPSWHGWRDSSURDFK GLVDELOLW\ DV DFWLYLW\ OLPLWDWLRQV DQG UHVWULFWLRQV LQ VRFLDO SDUWLFLSDWLRQ 7KLV LV SURQRXQFHG LQ WKH VFUHHQLQJ SURFHGXUH
DQGLQWKHLQFOXVLRQRIDPDWUL[RQDFWLYLW\OLPLWDWLRQVDQGVRFLDO UHVWULFWLRQV GHYHORSHG SDUWLFXODUO\ IRU WKLV VWXG\ :KHQ WKLV LV VDLGWKHFXUUHQWVWXG\SURYLGHVDXQLTXHSRVVLELOLW\IRUDSSO\LQJ FRUHFRQFHSWVIURP,&)DQGWRWHVWVRPHDVSHFWVRIWKHPRGHO VWDWLVWLFDOO\
$QXQGHUVWDQGLQJRI GLVDELOLW\DV GHILQHG E\ DFWLYLW\ OLPLWDWLRQV DQG UHVWULFWLRQV LQ SDUWLFLSDWLRQ ZLWKLQ D WKHRUHWLFDO IUDPHZRUN DV GHVFULEHG LQ )LJXUH XQGHUOLHV WKLV VWXG\ 7KH WHUP
³GLVDELOLW\´LVZLWKWKLVLQPLQGDSUREOHPDWLFFRQFHSWDVLWUHIHUV WRRULVDVVRFLDWHGZLWKDQLQGLYLGXDOLVWLFDQGLPSDLUPHQWEDVHG XQGHUVWDQGLQJ,WLVQHYHUWKHOHVVDSSOLHGWKURXJKRXWWKLVWH[WDV ZH UHJDUG LW DV D FRPPRQ DQG DFFHSWHG FRQFHSW DQG LW LV SUDFWLFDOLQXVHLQWKHDEVHQFHRIQHZHDV\WRXVHWHUPLQRORJ\LQ WKLVVHFWRU
&203$5$%,/,7<2)',6$%,/,7<67$7,67,&6
0DQ\FRXQWULHVFROOHFWGDWDRQGLVDELOLW\EXWWKHSUHYDOHQFH UDWHVGHULYHGIURPWKHVHGDWDYDU\JUHDWO\IRUDYDULHW\RI UHDVRQVLQFOXGLQJ
FRQFHSWXDO LVVXHV GLVDELOLW\ LV WKH UHVXOW RI DQ LQWHUDFWLRQ EHWZHHQ WKH SHUVRQ ZLWK WKH GLVDELOLW\ DQG WKHLU SDUWLFXODU HQYLURQPHQW 'LVDELOLW\ LV WKHUHIRUH D FRPSOH[ SKHQRPHQRQ ZLWK QR VWDWLF VWDWH FDQ EH FRQFHSWXDOLVHG LQ PDQ\ ZD\V
:LOOEHSXEOLVKHGVHSDUDWHO\
LQFOXGLQJ DW WKH OHYHO RI WKH ERG\ WKH SHUVRQ RU WKH VRFLHW\
PHDVXUHPHQW LVVXHV WKH TXHVWLRQV XVHG WKHLU VWUXFWXUH DQG ZRUGLQJ DQG KRZ WKH\ DUH XQGHUVWRRG DQG LQWHUSUHWHG E\ WKH UHVSRQGHQWV DOO DIIHFW WKH LGHQWLILFDWLRQ RI WKH SHUVRQV ZLWK GLVDELOLWLHVLQGDWDFROOHFWLRQ
)RUWKHVHUHDVRQVWKHREVHUYHGGLIIHUHQFHVDPRQJFRXQWULHVLQ WKHUDWHVRUSHUFHQWDJHVUHIOHFWFRQFHSWXDODQGPHDVXUHPHQW GLIIHUHQFHVWRYDU\LQJGHJUHHVDVZHOODVWUXHGLIIHUHQFHV7R DFKLHYHEURDGHUFRPSDUDELOLW\DPRQJFRXQWULHVPXFKZRUN QHHGVWREHGRQHWRIXUWKHUGHYHORSFODVVLILFDWLRQVDQGFRQFHSWV VXFKDVWKH,QWHUQDWLRQDO&ODVVLILFDWLRQRI)XQFWLRQLQJ'LVDELOLW\
DQG+HDOWK,&)DVZHOODVPHDVXUHPHQWLQVWUXPHQWVWR LPSOHPHQWWKHPLQQDWLRQDOVWDWLVWLFDOHIIRUWV
81LQLWLDWLYH
,Q 6HSWHPEHU WKH 8QLWHG 1DWLRQV 6WDWLVWLFV 'LYLVLRQ VSRQVRUHGDFRQIHUHQFHLQ.DPSDOD8JDQGD7KHREMHFWLYHRI WKHZRUNVKRSZDVWRVWUHQJWKHQQDWLRQDOFDSDELOLWLHVLQGLVDELOLW\
VWDWLVWLFV E\ WUDLQLQJ SURGXFHUV DQG XVHUV LQ WKH SURGXFWLRQ GLVVHPLQDWLRQ DQG XVH RI GDWD RQ GLVDELOLW\ IRU SROLF\
GHYHORSPHQW DQG LPSOHPHQWDWLRQ 7KH ZRUNVKRS EURXJKW WRJHWKHU UHSUHVHQWDWLYHV ERWK GDWD SURGXFHUV DQG GDWD XVHUV IURP $IULFDQ QDWLRQV LQFOXGLQJ 1DPLELD IRU H[FKDQJLQJ LQIRUPDWLRQ DQG H[SHULHQFHV UHODWHG WR WKH PHDVXUHPHQW RI GLVDELOLW\XVLQJYDULHGFROOHFWLRQPHFKDQLVPV
6HYHUDOGRFXPHQWVZHUHVHPLQDOWRWKHFRQIHUHQFH7KHUHYLVHG 81 *XLGHOLQHV DQG 3ULQFLSOHV IRU WKH 'HYHORSPHQW RI 'LVDELOLW\
6WDWLVWLFV SURYLGH WKH SULPHU RI GLVDELOLW\ PHWKRGV IRU SRSXODWLRQEDVHG GDWD 7KLV GRFXPHQW ZLOO FRQWLQXH WR DFW DV WKH WH[WERRN IRU GHYHORSLQJ DQG GHYHORSHG FRXQWULHV ZRUNLQJ WRZDUG KDUPRQLVDWLRQ RI GDWD 7KH 81 6WDQGDUG 5XOHV RQ WKH (TXDOLVDWLRQRI2SSRUWXQLWLHVIRU3HUVRQVZLWK'LVDELOLWLHV LV WKH JXLGHERRN IRU LGHQWLI\LQJ FRJHQW SROLF\ DQG LQWHUYHQWLRQ GLUHFWLRQV )LQDOO\ WKH ,QWHUQDWLRQDO &ODVVLILFDWLRQ RI )XQFWLRQLQJ 'LVDELOLW\ DQG +HDOWK ,&) UHFHQWO\
DSSURYHG E\ WKH :RUOG +HDOWK $VVHPEO\ SURYLGHV WKH FRQFHSWXDO FODVVLILFDWLRQ DQG FRGLQJ VFKHPH IRU RUJDQLVLQJ GLVDELOLW\ GDWD 7KHVH WKUHH GRFXPHQWV SURYLGH WKH WULSDUWLWH IRXQGDWLRQIRUJOREDOGLVDELOLW\GDWD
7KH FRQIHUHQFH LQFOXGHG DQ DQDO\VLV RI WKH FRQVWUDLQWV RI GDWD FROOHFWLRQV\VWHPVDQGHPSKDVLVHGZHDNQHVVHVDFFRUGLQJWRWKH V\VWHP VHOHFWHG DV ZHOO DV LVVXHV UHODWHG WR PHDVXUHPHQW HUURU GLVDELOLW\ GHILQLWLRQV DQG EDODQFLQJ WKH QHHGV RI GDWD SURGXFHUVDQGGDWDXVHUV,VVXHVUHODWHGWRFXOWXUDOLQIOXHQFHV RQUHSRUWLQJOLPLWDWLRQVZHUHGLVFXVVHG
3DUWLFLSDQWV ZHUH LQWURGXFHG WR WKH,&) DQG LWV XVH LQ IUDPLQJ QXPHURXV DUHDV RI WKH 6WDQGDUG 5XOHV DV HOHPHQWV RI WKH 3DUWLFLSDWLRQ GLPHQVLRQ ,QLWLDO H[HUFLVHV IRFXVHG RQ VHWWLQJ SROLF\ SULRULWLHV XVLQJ WKH6WDQGDUG 5XOHV DQG WKHQ WUDQVODWLQJ WKHHOHPHQWVLQWRGLVDELOLW\LWHPVIRUXVHLQVXUYH\V$VHFRQG
VHW RI H[HUFLVHV DOORZHG WKH SDUWLFLSDQWV WR WDNH DOUHDG\
HVWDEOLVKHG GLVDELOLW\ VFUHHQHU LWHPV IURP RWKHU VXUYH\V DQG FUDIWWKHPIRUUHOHYDQFHLQWKHLUFRXQWU\¶VGDWDPHFKDQLVP7KH HOHPHQWV RI WKH TXHVWLRQV ZHUH GHVFULEHG XVLQJ GLPHQVLRQV RI WKH,&),PSRUWDQFHZDVSODFHGRQZRUGLQJTXHVWLRQVVRWKDW WKHUHOHYDQWSROLF\LVVXHFDQEHDGGUHVVHG
7KH:RUNVKRSHQGHGZLWKXQDQLPRXVDVVHQWRIWKHSDUWLFLSDQWV IRUWKHIROORZLQJUHFRPPHQGDWLRQV
*RYHUQPHQWV VKRXOG DGYRFDWH LQFOXVLRQ RI GLVDELOLW\
TXHVWLRQVLQFHQVXVHVDQGVXUYH\V
7KHUHLVQHHGWRLQYROYHVWDNHKROGHUVXVHUVSURGXFHUV SHUVRQV ZLWK GLVDELOLWLHV LQ WKH SURFHVV RI GHYHORSLQJ GDWDFROOHFWLRQ LQVWUXPHQWV WR PHDVXUH GLVDELOLW\ DQG LQ WKHGDWDFROOHFWLRQSURFHVVDVDZKROH
7KH :+2 ,QWHUQDWLRQDO &ODVVLILFDWLRQ RI )XQFWLRQLQJ 'LVDELOLW\ DQG +HDOWK ,&) FRQFHSWV VKRXOG EH XVHG LQ WKHPHDVXUHPHQWRIGLVDELOLW\
7KH IROORZLQJ SULQFLSOHV VKRXOG DSSO\ LQ WKH GHVLJQ RI TXHVWLRQVWRPHDVXUHGLVDELOLW\
• 7KH TXHVWLRQV VKRXOG UHIHU WR DFWLYLW\
OLPLWDWLRQV
• 7KH TXHVWLRQV VKRXOG DVN IRU DFWLYLW\
OLPLWDWLRQVLQWKHFRQWH[WRIDPHGLFDOFRQGLWLRQ
• 7KH TXHVWLRQV VKRXOG DVN IRU W\SH DQG GXUDWLRQRIDFWLYLW\OLPLWDWLRQ
• 7KH TXHVWLRQV VKRXOG LQFOXGH GHJUHH RU VHYHULW\RIDFWLYLW\OLPLWDWLRQ
,QOLJKWRIWKH$IULFDQ'HFDGHRI'LVDEOHG3HUVRQVWKHUHLVQHHG WRVWUHQJWKHQDQGVWUHDPOLQHWKHFROOHFWLRQRIGDWDRQGLVDELOLW\
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
VWDWLVWLFVLQWKHUHJLRQ
7KH FXUUHQW VWXG\ DQG VWXG\ GHVLJQ GUDZV RQ WKH GLVFXVVLRQV DQG FRQFOXVLRQV IURP WKH FRQIHUHQFH LQ .DPSDOD ,Q SDUWLFXODU WKH VFUHHQLQJ LQVWUXPHQW DSSOLHG KHUH FRUUHVSRQGV WR WKH UHFRPPHQGHGZD\RIVFUHHQLQJIRUGLVDELOLW\
(19,5210(17$/)$&7256
(QYLURQPHQWDOIDFWRUVLVDQLPSRUWDQWHOHPHQWLQWKH,&)PRGHO DQGLWLVIXQGDPHQWDOWRWKHSUHVHQWXQGHUVWDQGLQJRIGLVDELOLW\
WKDWDFWLYLW\OLPLWDWLRQVDQGUHVWULFWLRQVLQSDUWLFLSDWLRQLVIRUPHG LQWKHH[FKDQJHEHWZHHQDQLQGLYLGXDODQGKLVKHUHQYLURQPHQW ,Q WKH FXUUHQW VWXG\ HQYLURQPHQWDO IDFWRUV DUH LQFOXGHG LQ DQ DFWLYLW\ DQG SDUWLFLSDWLRQ PDWUL[ $SSHQGL[ ,W LV KRZHYHU DFNQRZOHGJHGWKDWVWXGLHVOLNHWKHFXUUHQWWUDGLWLRQDOO\IRFXVHV RQWKHLQGLYLGXDODQGWKDWWKLVLVDOVRWKHFDVHKHUH
/LYLQJFRQGLWLRQV
7KH FRQFHSWV RI ³OHYHO RI OLYLQJ´ RU ³OLYLQJ FRQGLWLRQV´ KDYH GHYHORSHG IURP D UHODWLYHO\ QDUURZ HFRQRPLF DQG PDWHULDO GHILQLWLRQWRDFXUUHQWFRQFHUQZLWKKXPDQFDSDELOLWLHVDQGKRZ LQGLYLGXDOVXWLOLVHWKHLU FDSDELOLWLHV+HLEHUJ YHQVHQ
$OWKRXJK HFRQRPLF DQG PDWHULDO LQGLFDWRUV SOD\ DQ LPSRUWDQW UROHLQWKHWUDGLWLRQRIOHYHORIOLYLQJVXUYH\VLQWKHLQGXVWULDOLVHG FRXQWULHV DQLQGLYLGXDO¶VOHYHORIOLYLQJLV FXUUHQWO\GHILQHG QRW VRPXFKE\KLVRUKHUHFRQRPLFSRVVHVVLRQVEXWE\WKHDELOLW\
WRH[HUFLVHFKRLFHDQGWRDIIHFWWKHFRXUVHRIKLVRUKHURZQOLIH 7KHOHYHORIOLYLQJVWXGLHVKDYHEHHQPRUHDQGPRUHFRQFHUQHG ZLWK VXFK TXHVWLRQV DQG DUH FXUUHQWO\ DWWHPSWLQJ WR H[DPLQH WKHGHJUHHWRZKLFKSHRSOHFDQSDUWLFLSDWHLQVRFLDOSROLWLFDODQG HFRQRPLF GHFLVLRQPDNLQJ DQG FDQ ZRUN FUHDWLYHO\ DQG SURGXFWLYHO\WRVKDSHWKHLURZQIXWXUH81'3
$QXPEHURIFRUHLWHPVFDQEHUHJDUGHGDVYLWDOWRDQ\OHYHORI OLYLQJ VWXG\ 'HPRJUDSKLFV KHDOWK HGXFDWLRQ KRXVLQJ ZRUN
DQGLQFRPH2WKHULQGLFDWRUVPD\FRPSULVHXVHRIWLPHVRFLDO FRQWDFWVHQVHRILQIOXHQFHVHQVHRIZHOOEHLQJSHUFHSWLRQVRI VRFLDO FRQIOLFW DFFHVV WR SROLWLFDO UHVRXUFHV DFFHVV WR VHUYLFHV VRFLDO SDUWLFLSDWLRQ SULYDF\ DQG SURWHFWLRQ HWF 7KH FKRLFH RI ZKLFK LQGLFDWRUV WR LQFOXGH ZLOO YDU\ DFFRUGLQJ WR WKH VSHFLILF UHTXLUHPHQWVRIHDFKVWXG\DQGWKHFLUFXPVWDQFHVXQGHUZKLFK WKHVWXGLHVDUHXQGHUWDNHQ
'LVDELOLW\DQGOLYLQJFRQGLWLRQV
5HVHDUFK RQ OLYLQJ FRQGLWLRQV LV FRPSDUDWLYH E\ QDWXUH
&RPSDULVRQ EHWZHHQ JURXSV RU PRQLWRULQJ GHYHORSPHQW RYHU WLPH ZLWKLQ JURXSV DQG SRSXODWLRQV DUH YHU\ RIWHQ WKH YHU\
UHDVRQVIRUFDUU\LQJRXWVXFKVWXGLHV7KHSXUSRVHLVWKXVRIWHQ WRLGHQWLI\SRSXODWLRQJURXSVZLWKFHUWDLQFKDUDFWHULVWLFVDQGWR VWXG\ ZKHWKHU WKHUH DUH V\VWHPDWLF GLIIHUHQFHV LQ OLYLQJ FRQGLWLRQV EHWZHHQ JURXSV ± RU WR VWXG\ FKDQJHV LQ OLYLQJ FRQGLWLRQVZLWKLQJURXSVRYHUWLPHDQGWRFRPSDUHGHYHORSPHQW RYHUWLPHEHWZHHQJURXSV3RSXODWLRQVXEJURXSVRILQWHUHVWLQ VXFKVWXGLHVDUHRIWHQGHILQHGE\JHRJUDSK\JHQGHUDJH±RU WKHIRFXVRIWKHFXUUHQWUHVHDUFKLHSHRSOHZLWKGLVDELOLWLHVYV QRQGLVDEOHG 5HVHDUFK LQ KLJKLQFRPH FRXQWULHV KDV GHPRQVWUDWHG WKDW SHRSOH ZLWK GLVDELOLWLHV DUH ZRUVH RII DORQJ WKHZKROHVSHFWUHRILQGLFDWRUVFRQFHUQLQJOLYLQJFRQGLWLRQVDQG WKDW WKLV JDS KDV DOVR UHPDLQHG GXULQJ WLPHV ZLWK VWHDG\
LPSURYHPHQW RI FRQGLWLRQV IRU DOO +HP (LGH 7KLV UHVHDUFK EDVHG LQIRUPDWLRQ KDV EHHQ YHU\ XVHIXO IRU DGYRFDF\
SXUSRVHV IRU HGXFDWLRQ DQG DWWLWXGH FKDQJH LQ WKH SRSXODWLRQ DV ZHOO DV IRU SODQQLQJ DQG UHVRXUFH DOORFDWLRQ SXUSRVHV :KHWKHU WKH VDPH PHFKDQLVPV RI V\VWHPDWLF GLIIHUHQFHV DQG UHSURGXFWLRQ RI GLIIHUHQFHV DUH DW ZRUN LQ SUHGRPLQDQWO\ SRRU FRQWH[WVVWLOOUHPDLQVWREHGRFXPHQWHG
:KHQ WKH SXUSRVH LV WR VWXG\ OLYLQJ FRQGLWLRQV DPRQJ SHRSOH ZLWK GLVDELOLWLHV ZH GHSHQG RQ EHLQJ DEOH WR RSHUDWLRQDOLVH LQ RUGHUWRLGHQWLI\ZKRLVGLVDEOHGDQGZKRLVQRW7KLVLVDPRUH FRPSOH[LVVXHWKDQFKRRVLQJEHWZHHQD³PHGLFDOPRGHO´RQRQH VLGHDQGD³VRFLDOPRGHO´RQWKHRWKHU+RZWKLVLVXQGHUVWRRG DQG FDUULHG RXW KDV VWURQJ LPSDFW RQ WKH UHVXOWV RI UHVHDUFK DQGLWKDVLPSDFWRQWKHDSSOLFDWLRQRIUHVXOWVVHHFKDSWHU RQWKHGLVDELOLW\FRQFHSW,&)PD\WRVRPHH[WHQWEHYLHZHG DV DQ DWWHPSW WR FRPELQH D EURDG UDQJH RI IDFWRUV WKDW LQIOXHQFHVWKH³GLVDELOLW\SKHQRPHQD´
7KH DXWKRUV EHKLQG WKLV UHVHDUFK UHSRUW VXSSRUW WKH LGHD WKDW GLVDELOLW\ RU WKH GLVDEOHPHQW SURFHVV LV PDQLIHVWHG LQ WKH H[FKDQJH EHWZHHQ WKH LQGLYLGXDO DQG KLVKHU HQYLURQPHQW 'LVDELOLW\LVWKXVSUHVHQWLIDQLQGLYLGXDOLVVHYHUHO\UHVWULFWHG LQ KLVKHU GDLO\ OLIH DFWLYLWLHV GXH WR D PLVPDWFK EHWZHHQ IXQFWLRQDO DELOLWLHV DQG GHPDQGV RI VRFLHW\ 7KLV FRXQWHUV D
³WUDGLWLRQDO´ RU ³PHGLFDO´ PRGHO ZKHUHE\ WKH IRFXV KDV EHHQ D FOLQLFDOLGHQWLILFDWLRQRILPSDLUPHQWVDVWKHTXDOLILHUIRU EHLQJ GLVDEOHG 7KH UROH RI WKH SK\VLFDO DQG VRFLDO HQYLURQPHQW LQ GLVDEOLQJLQGLYLGXDOVKDVEHHQYHU\PXFKLQIRFXVGXULQJWKHODVW ± \HDUV ZLWK WKH DGRSWLRQ RI WKH 6WDQGDUG 5XOHV WKH
:RUOG3URJUDPPHRI$FWLRQDQGODWHO\WKH,&):+2,W LV ORJLFDO WKDW WKLV GHYHORSPHQW LV IROORZHG E\ UHVHDUFK RQ WKH PHFKDQLVPVWKDWSURGXFHGLVDELOLW\LQWKHPHHWLQJEHWZHHQWKH LQGLYLGXDODQGKLVKHUHQYLURQPHQW
,W LV WUXH WKDW VWXGLHV RI OLYLQJ FRQGLWLRQV DPRQJ SHRSOH ZLWK GLVDELOLWLHVLQKLJKLQFRPHFRXQWULHVKDYHEHHQFULWLFLVHGIRUQRW HYROYLQJ IURP DQ LQGLYLGXDOLVWLF SHUVSHFWLYH 'DWD DUH FROOHFWHG DERXWLQGLYLGXDOVDQGIXQFWLRQDOOLPLWDWLRQVDUHVWLOOLQIRFXV,WLV DGLOHPPDWKDWWKLVUHVHDUFKWUDGLWLRQKDVQRW\HWEHHQDEOHWR UHIOHFW WKH UHODWLRQDO DQG UHODWLYH YLHZ RQ GLVDELOLW\ WKDW PRVW UHVHDUFKHUVLQWKLVILHOGZRXOGVXSSRUWWRGD\:KLOHZHDJUHHWR VXFK YLHZSRLQWV ZH QHYHUWKHOHVV DUJXH WKDW D ³WUDGLWLRQDO´
VWXG\LVQHHGHGLQORZLQFRPHFRXQWULHVWRDOORZIRUGHVFULSWLRQ RIWKHVLWXDWLRQDVZHOODVFRPSDULQJEHWZHHQJURXSVDQGRYHU WLPH ,Q KLJKLQFRPH FRXQWULHV VXFK VWXGLHV KDYH VKRZQ WKHPVHOYHV WR EH SRZHUIXO WRROV LQ WKH FRQWLQXRXV VWULYLQJ IRU LPSURYLQJ WKH OLYLQJ FRQGLWLRQV DPRQJ SHRSOH ZLWK GLVDELOLWLHV ,QVSLWHRIDQLQGLYLGXDOLVWLFELDVLQWKHGHVLJQRIWKHVHVWXGLHV WKH UHVXOWV FDQ VWLOO EH DSSOLHG LQ D FULWLFDO SHUVSHFWLYH RQ FRQWH[WXDO DQG UHODWLRQDO DVSHFWV WKDW UHSUHVHQWV LPSRUWDQW PHFKDQLVPVLQWKHGLVDEOHPHQWSURFHVV
&RPELQLQJWZRWUDGLWLRQVDQG,&)
7KH GHVLJQ WKDW KDV EHHQ GHYHORSHG DQG WHVWHG KHUH DLPV DW FRPELQLQJ WZR UHVHDUFK WUDGLWLRQV VWXGLHV RQ OLYLQJ FRQGLWLRQV
DQG GLVDELOLW\ VWXGLHV 7ZR UHVHDUFK LQVWUXPHQWV WKDW ZHUH DOUHDG\ WHVWHG DQG WULHG RXW LQ 6RXWK $IULFD GLVDELOLW\ VWXG\
6FKQHLGHU HW DO DQG 1DPLELD VWXG\ RQ OLYLQJ FRQGLWLRQV 3ODQQLQJ FRPPLVVLRQ ZHUH PHUJHG $ WKLUG HOHPHQW RQ DFWLYLWLHV DQG SDUWLFLSDWLRQ ZDV LQFOXGHG WR LQFRUSRUDWHWKHFRQFHSWXDOGHYHORSPHQWVWKDWKDYHWDNHQSODFH LQ FRQQHFWLRQ ZLWK GHYHORSPHQW RI ,&) %\ FRPELQLQJ WKH WZR WUDGLWLRQV D EURDGHU VHW RI YDULDEOHV WKDW FDQ GHVFULEH WKH VLWXDWLRQIRUSHRSOHZLWK
GLVDELOLWLHVDUHLQFOXGHGDVFRPSDUHGWRWKHWUDGLWLRQDOGLVDELOLW\
VWDWLVWLFV6HFRQGO\DSRVVLELOLW\LVHVWDEOLVKHGIRUFRPSDULQJ WKHFRQGLWLRQVRIGLVDEOHGSHRSOHDQGKRXVHKROGVZLWKGLVDEOHG SHRSOHZLWKQRQGLVDEOHGDQGKRXVHKROGVZLWKRXWDQ\GLVDEOHG PHPEHUV,WLVDUJXHGWKDWVXFKFRPSDUDWLYHLQIRUPDWLRQLV PXFKPRUHSRWHQWLQWKHVWUXJJOHIRULPSURYHPHQWRIWKH VLWXDWLRQIRUGLVDEOHGSHRSOHUHIOHFWLQJWKHGHYHORSPHQWDO WDUJHWIRUWKHFXUUHQWVWXG\
%\´GLVDELOLW\VWXGLHV´ZHXQGHUVWDQGDEURDGVSHFWHURIGLIIHUHQWVWXGLHVWKDW KDYHJHQHUDWHGNQRZOHGJHDERXWWKHVLWXDWLRQRISHRSOHZLWKGLVDELOLWLHV
'HVLJQDQGP HWKRGV
([LVWLQJDQGWHVWHGUHVHDUFKLQVWUXPHQWVWKDWKDGEHHQDSSOLHG LQ 1DPLELD RQ OLYLQJ FRQGLWLRQV 3ODQQLQJ &RPPLVVLRQ DQGLQ6RXWK$IULFDRQGLVDELOLW\6FKQHLGHUHWDOZHUH FRPELQHGDQGDGDSWHG,QDGGLWLRQDVFUHHQLQJLQVWUXPHQWIRU GLVDELOLW\ ZDV LQFOXGHG DV ZHOO DV D PDWUL[ RQ DFWLYLWLHV DQG SDUWLFLSDWLRQGHYHORSHGIRUWKLVVWXG\DQGGUDZLQJRQ,&)
8VHU SDUWLFLSDWLRQ ZDV DQ LPSRUWDQW HOHPHQW LQ WKH GHVLJQ GHYHORSPHQW7KLVSURFHVVFRPSULVHG
L $WZRGD\ZRUNVKRSDWWHQGHGE\DURXQGSURIHVVLRQDOV UHVHDUFKHUVSHRSOHZLWKGLVDELOLWLHVDQGFLYLOVHUYDQWVZKR GLVFXVVHGDQGWHVWHGDGUDIWUHVHDUFKLQVWUXPHQW
LL 3LORWWHVWLQJ RI WKH UHVHDUFK LQVWUXPHQW DPRQJ KRXVHKROGVZLWKDQGKRXVHKROGVZLWKRXWGLVDELOLWLHVLQ DKLJKGHQVLW\VXEXUELQ.DWXWXUD:LQGKRHN(LGHHWDO
LLL )XUWKHU UHYLVLRQV RI WKH UHVHDUFK LQVWUXPHQW EDVHG RQ H[SHULHQFH IURP WKH SLORW VXUYH\ DQG D VHFRQG WZRGD\
ZRUNVKRS LQFOXGLQJ WKH VDPH UHVRXUFH SHUVRQV DQG VWDNH KROGHUVDVDWWKHEHJLQQLQJRIWKHSURFHVV
$IWHU UHYLVLRQ WKH TXHVWLRQQDLUH FRPSULVHG IRXU VHFWLRQV L KRXVHKROGVWXG\RQOLYLQJFRQGLWLRQVLLVFUHHQLQJIRUGLVDELOLW\
LLL TXHVWLRQV WR LQGLYLGXDOV ZLWK GLVDELOLWLHV LQFOXGLQJ DOVR WKH ,&) EDVHG PDWUL[ RQ DFWLYLWLHV DQG SDUWLFLSDWLRQ 7KH ILQDO YHUVLRQ RI WKH TXHVWLRQQDLUH ZDV GHYHORSHG LQ (QJOLVK 6LPSOH ILHOG WHVWV ZHUH FDUULHG RXW GXULQJ WUDLQLQJ OHDGLQJ WR D IHZ DGDSWDWLRQVWRORFDOGLDOHFWV
7DUJHWSRSXODWLRQIRUWKHVDPSOLQJZDVDOOSULYDWHKRXVHKROGVLQ 1DPLELDH[FOXGLQJWKHLQVWLWXWLRQDOLVHGDQGKRPHOHVV SHRSOH $ VWUDWLILHG VLQJOHVWDJH FOXVWHU VDPSOH ZDV FDUULHG RXW 7KH VDPSOLQJ IUDPH XVHG LV DQ DUHD IUDPH EDVHG RQ WKH (QXPHUDWLRQ $UHDV ($¶V RI 3RSXODWLRQ DQG +RXVLQJ
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¶VZHUHVHOHFWHGZLWKHTXDOSUREDELOLW\LQWKHJURXSZKHUH WKH VL]H PHDVXUH ZDV WKH VPDOOHVW DQG ZLWK SUREDELOLW\
SURSRUWLRQDOWRVL]HVDPSOLQJLQWKHUHPDLQLQJJURXSV
7KH FUXGH RYHUDOO GLVDELOLW\ SUHYDOHQFH UDWH IRU 1DPLELD ZDV IRXQGWREHDURXQGIURPWKH3RSXODWLRQDQG+RXVLQJ
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± UXUDO FRPSDULVRQ EXW LQ SULQFLSOH QRW IRU FRPSDULVRQEHWZHHQUHJLRQV
6DPSOLQJ ZDV FDUULHG RXW E\ WKH &HQWUDO %XUHDX RI 6WDWLVWLFV
&%6DQGEDVHGRQWKH1DWLRQDO6DPSOLQJ)UDPHDSSOLHGZKHQ FDUU\LQJRXWUHSUHVHQWDWLYHVWXGLHVLQ=LPEDEZH6WHSRQHZDV WR GUDZ D UHSUHVHQWDWLYH VDPSOH RI HQXPHUDWLRQ DUHDV $OO WRJHWKHUHQXPHUDWLRQDUHDV UHSUHVHQWLQJ KRXVHKROGV ZLWK LQGLYLGXDOV ZHUH VDPSOHG 7RWDO QXPEHU RI ($V LQ WKH FRXQWU\ LV DQG WKH SRSXODWLRQ LV PLOOLRQ LQGLYLGXDOV7KHVDPSOHWKXVFRPSULVHVRI($VDQGRI WKH FRXQWU\¶V SRSXODWLRQ 7KLV VDPSOH VL]H DOORZV IRU FRPSDULVRQEHWZHHQXUEDQDQGUXUDOVXESRSXODWLRQVZKLOHLWLV WRRVPDOOIRU5HJLRQDOFRPSDULVRQ
6HFRQG VWHS LQ WKH VDPSOLQJ ZDV VFUHHQLQJ IRU GLVDELOLW\ E\
LQWHUYLHZLQJ SULPDULO\ KHDGV RI DOO KRXVHKROGV LQ WKH VDPSOHG HQXPHUDWLRQ DUHDV ,QVWHDG RI DVNLQJ IRU VSHFLILF LPSDLUPHQWV LV DQ\RQH LQ \RXU KRXVHKROG EOLQG GHDI HWF ZKLFK LV WKH PRVW FRPPRQ ZD\ RI VFUHHQLQJ IRU GLVDELOLWLHV LQ FHQVXVHV LQ ORZLQFRPH FRXQWULHV (KWWSXQVWDWVXQRUJXQVGGLVDELOLW\, WKH VFUHHQLQJ ZDV EDVHG RQ DQ XQGHUVWDQGLQJ RI GLVDELOLW\ DV GLIILFXOWLHVLQGRLQJGD\WRGD\DFWLYLWLHVDQGRUDVUHVWULFWLRQVLQ VRFLDOSDUWLFLSDWLRQ
6FUHHQLQJTXHVWLRQ'RHVDQ\RQHLQWKLVKRXVHKROGHYHUKDYH DQ\ GLIILFXOW\ LQ GRLQJ GD\ WR GD\ DFWLYLWLHV EHFDXVH RI D SK\VLFDOPHQWDORUHPRWLRQDORURWKHUKHDOWKFRQGLWLRQZKLFK KDV ODVWHG RU LV H[SHFWHG WR ODVW IRU VL[ PRQWKV RU PRUH"
DQVZHUFDWHJRULHV\HVQR
6FUHHQLQJ TXHVWLRQ 'RHV DQ\RQH LQ WKLV KRXVHKROG QHHG DVVLVWDQFH LQ SDUWLFLSDWLQJ LQ DQ\ RI WKH IROORZLQJ DFWLYLWLHV"
ZDONLQJ VHHLQJ VSHDNLQJ KHDULQJ EUHDWKLQJ PHQWDO FRSLQJ OHDUQLQJFRPSUHKHQGLQJDQVZHUFDWHJRULHV\HVQR
$OO WRJHWKHU KRXVHKROGV ZHUH LGHQWLILHG DV KDYLQJ RQH RU PRUH GLVDEOHG PHPEHUV 7KHVH KRXVHKROGV ZLWK GLVDEOHG PHPEHUV ZHUH ODWHU UHYLVLWHG DQG FRPSUHKHQVLYH TXHVWLRQQDLUHEDVHG LQWHUYLHZV ZHUH FDUULHG RXW 'XULQJ WKLV H[HUFLVH WKH VFUHHQLQJ SURFHGXUH ZDV UHSHDWHG DQG D WRWDO RI LQGLYLGXDOV ZLWK GLIILFXOWLHV LQ FDUU\LQJ RXW GD\WRGD\
DFWLYLWLHVZHUHLGHQWLILHGWKXVTXDOLI\LQJDVEHLQJGLVDEOHG7KLV
7KHVFUHHQLQJTXHVWLRQVUHIOHFWDQXQGHUVWDQGLQJRIGLVDELOLW\DFFRUGLQJWRWKH ,QWHUQDWLRQDO&ODVVLILFDWLRQRI)XQFWLRQLQJDQG+HDOWK,&):+2
FRPSULVHV &, ± RI WKH LQGLYLGXDOVOLVWHGDQGZKLFKLVDOVRWKHHVWLPDWHGSUHYDOHQFHRI GLVDELOLW\ LQ 1DPLELD LQ WKLV VWXG\ 3UHYDOHQFH LQ XUEDQ DUHDV ZDV HVWLPDWHG WR EH &, ± DQG LQ UXUDO DUHDV&,±
8QLYHUVLW\ RI 1DPLELD 0XWOLGLVFLSOLQDU\ 5HVHDUFK DQG
&RQVXOWDQF\&HQWUHZDVUHVSRQVLEOHIRUUHFUXLWLQJDQGWUDLQLQJ RIHQXPHUDWRUVFDUU\LQJRXWWKHGDWDFROOHFWLRQGDWDHQWU\DQG GDWDFOHDQLQJ'DWDFROOHFWLRQZDVFDUULHGRXWE\WHDPVLH RQHSHU5HJLRQ$WRWDORIHQXPHUDWRUVIOXHQWLQ(QJOLVKDQG LQ WKH UHOHYDQW ORFDO ODQJXDJHV FDUULHG RXW WKH GDWD FROOHFWLRQ
$SSUR[LPDWHO\ ZHUH SHRSOH ZLWK GLVDELOLWLHV UHFUXLWHG WKURXJK WKH 1DWLRQDO )HGHUDWLRQ RI 'LVDEOHG 3HRSOH LQ 1DPLELD 1)'31
,Q RUGHU WR REWDLQ D FRQWURO VDPSOH RI KRXVHKROGV ZLWKRXW GLVDEOHGPHPEHUVWKHKRXVHKROGQH[WWRHDFKRIWKHLGHQWLILHG KRXVHKROGV ZLWK GLVDEOHG PHPEHUV ZHUH V\VWHPDWLFDOO\
VHOHFWHG7KHWRWDOVDPSOHWKXVFRPSULVHGKRXVHKROGVZLWK GLVDEOHG PHPEHUV DQG KRXVHKROGV ZLWKRXW GLVDEOHG PHPEHUV7KHWZRJURXSVLQWKHVDPSOHDUHWKXVUHSUHVHQWDWLYH IRU WKH SRSXODWLRQ RI KRXVHKROGV ZLWK DQG ZLWKRXW GLVDEOHG PHPEHUVLQ1DPLELD
7KH VDPSOHG KRXVHKROGV ZHUH YLVLWHG E\ RQH HQXPHUDWRU ZKR FDUULHG RXW WKH LQWHUYLHZ ZLWK WKH KHDG RI WKH KRXVHKROG 7KH PDMRULW\ RI GLVDEOHG SHUVRQV DQVZHUHG E\ SUR[\ ,Q FDVHVZKHUHQRRQHZDVSUHVHQWWRDQVZHUZKHQWKHKRXVHKROG ZDV YLVLWHG E\ WKH HQXPHUDWRU WKH KRXVHKROG YDV UHYLVLWHG 0LVVLQJ WXUQHG RXW WR EH D PLQRU SUREOHP DV GDWD FROOHFWLRQ IDLOHG LQ KRXVHKROGV ZLWK GLVDEOHG PHPEHUV DQG FRQWURO KRXVHKROGVRQO\7RWDOQXPEHURISHUVRQVZLWKGLVDELOLWLHVLQWKH VDPSOHGKRXVHKROGVWKDWZHUHQRWLQWHUYLHZHGZDV
$OO TXHVWLRQQDLUHV ZHUH FRQWUROOHG DQG VLJQHG E\ D VXSHUYLVRU DIWHUWKHLQWHUYLHZ&RPSOHWHGTXHVWLRQQDLUHVZHUHWUDQVSRUWHG WR:LQGKRHNIRUGDWDFOHDQLQJDQGHQWU\$QDO\VHVZHUHFDUULHG RXWE\PHDQVRI6366
5HVXOWV
7KHUHVXOWVDUHSUHVHQWHGLQWZRVXEFKDSWHUV
6WXG\ RQ OHYHO RI OLYLQJ FRPSDULQJ LQGLYLGXDOV ZLWKZLWKRXW GLVDELOLWLHVDQGKRXVHKROGVZLWKZLWKRXWGLVDEOHGSHUVRQV
'LVDELOLW\ VWXG\ 6HSDUDWH VWXG\ DPRQJ WKH LGHQWLILHG GLVDEOHG SHUVRQV LQFOXGLQJ D VHSDUDWH VHFWLRQ ZLWK TXHVWLRQV DERXW GLIILFXOWLHVDFWLYLWLHVDQGSDUWLFLSDWLRQ
3DUWLFXODU FDUH KDV EHHQ WDNHQ GXULQJ DQDO\VHV WR FRQWURO IRU JHQGHU DQG WKH XUEDQ ± UXUDO GLPHQVLRQ :KHQHYHU WKHVH FRQWUROVKDYHUHYHDOHGVLJQLILFDQWGLIIHUHQFHVWKLVLVFRPPHQWHG LQWKHWH[WRWKHUZLVHQRW
7DEOH SURYLGHV DQ RYHUYLHZ RI QXPEHU RI KRXVHKROGV DQG LQGLYLGXDOVLQFOXGHGLQWKHGDWDFROOHFWLRQ
7DEOH 1XPEHURIKRXVHKROGVDQGLQGLYLGXDOVLQWKHVWXG\
6RXUFH +RXVHKROGV ,QGLYLGXDOV 3HUVRQVZLWK GLVDELOLWLHV /LYLQJFRQGLWLRQV
GLVDELOLW\VXUYH\
&RQWUROV
/LYLQJFRQGLWLRQV
VXUYH\
5HVXOWVIURPWKHVWXG\RQOHYHORIOLYLQJ
0HDQ VL]HV RI KRXVHKROGV ZLWK DQG ZLWKRXW GLVDEOHG SHUVRQV ZHUH DQG UHVSHFWLYHO\ W GI S )XUWKHUDQDO\VHVUHYHDOHGWKDWPHDQVL]HVLQWKHXUEDQ VXEVDPSOHZHUHDQGW GI S ZKLOHPHDQVL]HVLQWKHUXUDOVXEVDPSOHZHUHDQGW GI S 7KH XUEDQ UXUDO GLIIHUHQFH LQ KRXVHKROGVZLWKRXWGLVDEOHGPHPEHUVPHDQVL]HVDQG ZDV VLJQLILFDQW W GI S ZKLOH WKLV ZDV REYLRXVO\QRWWKHFDVHIRUKRXVHKROGVZLWKGLVDEOHGPHPEHUV
0HDQ DJH LQ WKH KRXVHKROGV ZLWK GLVDEOHG PHPEHUV ZDV
\HDUV1 6' DQG\HDUV1 6' LQ WKH FRQWURO KRXVHKROGV 7KLV GLIIHUHQFH LV QRW VWDWLVWLFDOO\ VLJQLILFDQW &RQFHUQLQJ JHQGHU GLVWULEXWLRQ 1 RIWKHPHPEHUVLQKRXVHKROGVZLWKGLVDEOHGSHRSOH ZHUHIHPDOHVZKHUHDVWKHFRUUHVSRQGLQJILJXUHVIRUWKHFRQWURO KRXVHKROGV ZDV 1 $JDLQ WKLV GLIIHUHQFH EHWZHHQ WKH WZR JURXSV LV QRW VWDWLVWLFDOO\ VLJQLILFDQW )XUWKHU DQDO\VHVUHYHDOHGWKDWQXPEHURIFKLOGUHQXQGHUWKHDJHRI ZDVKLJKHULQKRXVHKROGVZLWKGLVDEOHGPHPEHUVYVW GI S
,QRWKHUZRUGVZLWKUHVSHFWWRDJHDQGJHQGHUWZRRIWKHPRVW LPSRUWDQW GHPRJUDSKLF SDUDPHWHUV RI D SRSXODWLRQ WKH WZR W\SHV RI KRXVHKROGV DUH VLPLODU +RZHYHU LW LV LQWHUHVWLQJ WR QRWH WKDW KRXVHKROGV WKDW LQFOXGH D GLVDEOHG PHPEHU DUH RQ
DYHUDJH ODUJHU DQG WKDW WKH\ KDYH PRUH FKLOGUHQ ,W LV DOVR ZRUWKQRWLQJWKDWDQH[SHFWHGXUEDQ±UXUDOGLIIHUHQFHLQVL]HRI KRXVHKROGVLVIRXQGIRUWKHFRQWUROKRXVHKROGVRQO\
'LVDEOHGDQGQRQGLVDEOHG
7KH FRQWUROV ZHUH QRW DVNHG DERXW GLVDELOLW\ &RPSDULVRQ EHWZHHQ GLVDEOHG DQG QRQGLVDEOHG LQGLYLGXDOV LV WKHUHIRUH EDVHG RQ WKH LQGLYLGXDOV LQ WKH KRXVHKROGV ZLWK GLVDEOHG PHPEHUVLHDOOWRJHWKHULQGLYLGXDOV
7DEOH 'LVDELOLW\E\JHQGHU
*HQGHU 'LVDEOHG 1RQGLVDEOHG 7RWDO
1 1 1
)HPDOH
0DOH
7RWDO
$ WRWDO RI SHUVRQV ZLWK GLVDELOLWLHV ZHUH LGHQWLILHG LQ WKH KRXVHKROGVZLWKGLVDEOHGPHPEHUVLHRI LQGLYLGXDOV $ VLJQLILFDQW JHQGHU GLIIHUHQFH ZDV IRXQG LQ WKDW Q RI WKH GLVDEOHG ZHUH IHPDOHV ZKHUHDV WKH FRUUHVSRQGLQJ ILJXUH IRU WKH QRQGLVDEOHG ZDV Q
0HDQ DJH DPRQJ WKH GLVDEOHG KRXVHKROG PHPEHUV ZDV KLJKHU WKDQ DPRQJ WKH QRQGLVDEOHG \HDUV DQG \HDUV W GI S )XUWKHU DQDO\VHV E\ JHQGHU UHYHDOHGWKHVDPHSDWWHUQ7KHPHDQDJHIRUZRPHQZDV
\HDUVDQG\HDUVLQWKHKRXVHKROGVZLWKGLVDEOHGPHPEHUV DQGWKH FRQWUROJURXSUHVSHFWLYHO\W GI S DQGIRUPHQWKHPHDQDJHVZHUH\HDUVDQG
\HDUVW GI S
7DEOH 0DULWDOVWDWXV
0DULWDOVWDWXV DJH!
'LVDEOHG 1RQGLVDEOHG 7RWDO
1 1 1
1HYHUPDUULHG
0DUULHGZLWK FHUWLILFDWH
0DUULHGWUDGLWLRQDO
&RQVHQVXDOXQLRQ
'LYRUFHG
VHSDUDWHG
:LGRZHG
7RWDO
7DEOH UHYHDOV WKDW WKHUH LV QR DSSUHFLDEOH GLIIHUHQFH EHWZHHQ GLVDEOHG DQG QRQGLVDEOHG ZLWK UHVSHFW WR PDULWDO VWDWXV 2I WKH GLVDEOHG DUH PDUULHG HLWKHU ZLWK FHUWLILFDWH RU WUDGLWLRQDOO\ ZKHUHDV WKLV ILJXUH IRU WKH QRQ GLVDEOHGLV
7DEOH 6FKRRODWWHQGDQFH 6FKRRO
DWWHQGDQFH DJH!
'LVDEOHG 1RQGLVDEOHG 7RWDO
1 1 1
1HYHUDWWHQGHG
6WLOODWWHQGLQJ
/HIWVFKRRO
7RWDO
,W LV VKRZQ KHUH WKDW VFKRRO DWWHQGDQFH LV ORZHU DPRQJ WKH GLVDEOHG PHPEHUV RI WKH KRXVHKROGV DV FRPSDUHG WR WKRVH KRXVHKROGPHPEHUVZLWKRXWDGLVDELOLW\ GI S 7KH SURSRUWLRQ RI WKRVH ZKR KDYH QHYHU DWWHQGHG VFKRRO LV WZLFH DV KLJK DPRQJ WKH GLVDEOHG PHPEHUV DV FRPSDUHG ZLWK WKH QRQGLVDEOHG YHUVXV UHVSHFWLYHO\7KLVILQGLQJ ZDV DJDLQ FRQILUPHG DPRQJ IHPDOHV DQG PDOHV VHSDUDWHO\ RI GLVDEOHG IHPDOHV DQG RI GLVDEOHG PDOHV QHYHU DWWHQGHG VFKRRO FRPSDUHG ZLWK RI QRQGLVDEOHGIHPDOHVDQGRIQRQGLVDEOHGPDOHV
6HSDUDWH DQDO\VHV ZHUH FDUULHG RXW WR H[SORUH ZKHWKHU SDUWLFXODU W\SHV RI GLVDELOLWLHV ZHUH UHSUHVHQWHG DPRQJ WKRVH ZKR KDG QRW DWWHQGHG VFKRRO $PRQJ WKRVH ZLWK GLVDELOLWLHV
\HDUV RI DJH RU ROGHU RI UHSRUWHG D GLVDELOLW\ WKDW FRXOG EH GHVFULEHG DV VHHLQJ KHDULQJ FRPPXQLFDWLRQLQWHOOHFWXDORUOHDUQLQJ2IWKHVHRU QHYHU KDG DWWHQGHG VFKRRO ,Q FRQWUDVW RI WKH LQGLYLGXDOVZKRUHSRUWHGDSK\VLFDOGLVDELOLW\KDGQHYHU DWWHQGHGVFKRRO6HYHUDOUHSRUWHGPXOWLSOHGLVDELOLWLHVDQGRQO\
WKHILUVWGLVDELOLW\LVDVVHVVHGKHUH,WDSSHDUVWKDWLQGLYLGXDOV ZLWK VHQVRU\ LPSDLUPHQWV VHHLQJ KHDULQJ DQG FRPPXQLFDWLRQ SUREOHPV DUH RYHUUHSUHVHQWHG DPRQJ WKRVH ZLWKRXW DQ\ IRUPDO VFKRROLQJ )RU LQGLYLGXDOV ZLWK DQ LPSDLUPHQW WKDW DIIHFWV WKH DELOLW\ WR PRYH WKH VLWXDWLRQ LV VOLJKWO\ EHWWHU 7KHVH UHVXOWV PD\ LQGLFDWH WKDW VFKRRO VHUYLFHV DUHQRWZHOODGDSWHGWRWKHQHHGVRIWKRVHZKRKDYHDVHQVRU\
LPSDLUPHQW
7DEOH 6FKRROJUDGHFRPSOHWHG
*UDGHFRPSOHWHG DJH!
'LVDEOHG 1RQGLVDEOHG 7RWDO
1 1 1
WKJUDGHRU ORZHU
WKWKJUDGH
+LJKHUHGXFDWLRQ
7RWDO
7DEOH VKRZV IXUWKHU GLIIHUHQFHV DQG VLPLODULWLHV EHWZHHQ WKRVHZKRKDYHDWWHQGHGVFKRRO,QWKHVDPSOHRILQGLYLGXDOV
\HDUV DQG ROGHU D VOLJKWO\ ODUJHU SURSRUWLRQ RI WKRVH ZLWK GLVDELOLWLHVLVIRXQGLQWKHORZHUJUDGHFDWHJRULHVLQWK JUDGHRUORZHUFRPSDUHGWRDPRQJWKHQRQGLVDEOHGDQG IHZHU DPRQJ WKRVH LQ JUDGHV ± DPRQJ GLVDEOHG YHUVXVDPRQJWKHQRQGLVDEOHG7KHSURSRUWLRQRIWKRVH ZLWKKLJKHUHGXFDWLRQLVVLPLODULQWKHWZRJURXSV$QDO\VLQJLQ VXEJURXSV UHYHDOHG WKDW WKH DERYH SDWWHUQ ZDV FRQILUPHG EXW DOVR WKDW LW ZDV VWURQJHU DPRQJ ZRPHQ DQG LQ WKH UXUDO VXE VDPSOH
7KH PRVW VWULNLQJ GLIIHUHQFH EHWZHHQ WKH WZR W\SHV RI KRXVHKROGV ZLWK UHJDUGV WR HGXFDWLRQ UHIHUV WR WKH KLJKHU SURSRUWLRQRIQRQVFKRRODWWHQGHHVDPRQJWKHKRXVHKROGVZLWK GLVDEOHGSHUVRQV
$ IXUWKHU LQGLFDWLRQ RI VNHZHG GLVWULEXWLRQ RI HGXFDWLRQDO UHVRXUFHVEHWZHHQGLVDEOHGDQGQRQGLVDEOHGZHUHIRXQGLQWKDW Q RIWKHGLVDEOHGSHUVRQV\HDUVRIDJHRUROGHU ZHUHQRWDEOHWRZULWHZKHUHDVWKLVILJXUHIRUQRQGLVDEOHGZDV Q $QDO\VHVFRQILUPHGWKHSDWWHUQLQVXEJURXSV EXW DOVR WKDW LW DSSHDUHG WR EH VWURQJHU DPRQJ ZRPHQ DQG LQ WKHUXUDOVXEVDPSOH
7DEOH /DQJXDJHV /DQJXDJHV
ZULWWHQ DJH!
'LVDEOHG 1RQGLVDEOHG 7RWDO
1 1 1
1RQH
2QH
7ZR
7KUHH
7RWDO
$ KLJKHU SURSRUWLRQ RI SHRSOH ZLWK GLVDELOLWLHV RYHU \HDUV RI DJHKDVQRZULWWHQODQJXDJHDELOLWLHVYHUVXVDPRQJ WKH QRQGLVDEOHG SRSXODWLRQ )XUWKHUPRUH LQGLYLGXDOV LQ KRXVHKROGV ZLWK GLVDELOLWLHV DUH DEOH WR ZULWH IHZHU ODQJXDJHV WKDQ LQGLYLGXDOV ZLWKRXW GLVDELOLWLHV GI S
(03/2<0(17$1'6.,//6
7DEOH 8QHPSOR\PHQW :RUNVWDWXV
DJH±
'LVDEOHG 1RQGLVDEOHG 7RWDO
1 1 1
&XUUHQWO\
ZRUNLQJ
5HWXUQLQJWR ZRUN
1RWFXUUHQWO\
ZRUNLQJ
7RWDO
7DEOH LOOXVWUDWHV WKH GHJUHH RI XQHPSOR\PHQW DPRQJ SHUVRQVEHWZHHQWKHHFRQRPLFDOO\DFWLYHDJHRI±\HDUV
$FFRUGLQJ WR WKH GDWD SUHVHQWHG KHUH XQHPSOR\PHQW LV FXUUHQWO\YHU\KLJKDPRQJWKRVHZLWKGLVDELOLWLHVDQG
DPRQJWKHQRQGLVDEOHG GI S,W
LVRILPSRUWDQFHKHUHWRQRWHWKDWWKHILJXUHVIRUXQHPSOR\PHQW DUHPXFKKLJKHUWKDQLQWKHUHFHQWVWXG\RQOLYLQJFRQGLWLRQVLQ
(PSOR\PHQWXQGHUVWRRGDVIRUPDOHPSOR\PHQWRUHPSOR\PHQWE\VRPHIRUP RIFRQWUDFWLQFOXGLQJVHDVRQDOODERXUEXWQRWVHOIHPSOR\PHQW
WKHJHQHUDOSRSXODWLRQLQ1DPLELD3ODQQLQJ&RPPLVVLRQ 7KLV PD\ EH H[SODLQHG E\ GLIIHUHQFHV LQ WKH TXHVWLRQV RQ HPSOR\PHQWDQGWKDWWKHUHVXOWVSURGXFHGKHUHUHIHUVWRIRUPDO HPSOR\PHQW ZLWK DQ HPSOR\HU DQG QRW VHOIHPSOR\PHQW RU ZRUNDWKRPH
,W LV LQWHUHVWLQJ WR QRWH WKDW WKH SURSRUWLRQ RI XQHPSOR\PHQW DPRQJSHRSOHZLWKGLVDELOLWLHVUHYHDOHGLQ7DEOHFRUUHVSRQGV ZHOO ZLWK WKH UHVXOW IURP WKH SUHYLRXV VWXG\ RQ GLVDELOLW\ DQG UHKDELOLWDWLRQLQ1DPLELD%UXKQVHWDOLHDQG 7KH UHVXOWV IXUWKHU LQGLFDWH WKDW WKH SURSRUWLRQ RI HPSOR\PHQWLVKLJKHUDPRQJWKHVHQVRU\LPSDLUHG
6.,//6
,WZDVKRZHYHUVKRZQWKDWDPRQJWKHVDPHJURXSRISRWHQWLDOO\
HFRQRPLFDOO\ DFWLYH SHUVRQV Q RI WKRVH ZLWK GLVDELOLWLHV KDG DFTXLUHG VRPH VNLOO FRPSDUHG WR Q RI WKH QRQGLVDEOHG GLIIHUHQFH QRW VLJQLILFDQW 7KLV LV PRVW OLNHO\ D UHIOHFWLRQ RI ZKDW LV RIIHUHG WR FKLOGUHQSHUVRQV ZLWK GLVDELOLW\ LH VNLOOV WUDLQLQJ LV PRUH FRPPRQ LQ WKH VSHFLDOHGXFDWLRQVHUYLFHVIRUSHUVRQVZLWKGLVDELOLWLHV
7DEOH 6NLOOV
6NLOOV
DJH!
'LVDEOHG 1RQGLVDEOHG 7RWDO
1 1 1
<HVIRUPDO
<HVLQIRUPDO
1R
7RWDO
,QWHUHVWLQJO\PRUHSHUVRQVZLWKRXWVNLOOVIRUPDOO\RULQIRUPDOO\
WUDLQHGDUHHPSOR\HGDVFRPSDUHGWRSHUVRQVZLWKVNLOOV YHUVXV$PRQJSHUVRQVZLWKGLVDELOLWLHVQ RILQGLYLGXDOVZLWKVNLOOVDUHHPSOR\HGDVFRPSDUHGWRQ RI LQGLYLGXDOV ZLWKRXW VNLOOV GI S
$PLQLPDOQRQVLJQLILFDQWGLIIHUHQFHZDVREVHUYHGLQ WKHQRQGLVDEOHGFRQWUROJURXS
7KHUH LV D GLIIHUHQFH LQ PHDQ PRQWKO\ VDODU\ EHWZHHQ WKH WZR JURXSV GLVDEOHG 1 QRQGLVDEOHG 1 DQG WKLV GLIIHUHQFH LV VWDWLVWLFDOO\ VLJQLILFDQW W GI S 1 LHWRWDOQXPEHURILQGLYLGXDOV\HDUVRI DJHZKRUHSRUWDPRQWKO\VDODU\:RPHQ¶VPRQWKO\VDODU\ZDV
VLJQLILFDQWO\ORZHUWKDQPHQ¶VEXWWKHXUEDQ±UXUDOGLIIHUHQFH ZDVQRWODUJHHQRXJKWRSURGXFHVWDWLVWLFDOVLJQLILFDQFH
,QFRPHLQNLQGIRUGLVDEOHGDQGQRQGLVDEOHGLQUXUDODUHDVZDV UHSRUWHG E\ DQG UHVSHFWLYHO\ ,Q XUEDQ DUHDV WKHFRUUHVSRQGLQJILJXUHVZHUHDQG7KHVHILJXUHV SULPDULO\UHYHDOVPDMRUGLIIHUHQFHVLQWKHHFRQRP\RILQGLYLGXDOV DQG KRXVHKROGV LQ XUEDQ YV UXUDO DUHDV DQG WKHUH LV DOVR DQ LQGLFDWLRQWKDWPRUHGLVDEOHGLQUXUDODUHDVGHSHQGRQLQFRPHLQ NLQGWKDQGRQRQGLVDEOHG
&RPSDULQJKRXVHKROGV
,Q WKH SUHFHGLQJ VHFWLRQ WKH JURXQGV IRU FRPSDULVRQ ZHUH LQGLYLGXDOV ZLWK DQG ZLWKRXW GLVDELOLWLHV LQ KRXVHKROGV ZLWK D GLVDEOHG IDPLO\ PHPEHU ,Q WKLV VHFWLRQ ZH ZLOO ORRN DW GLIIHUHQFHVEHWZHHQKRXVHKROGXQLWVZLWKDQGZLWKRXWDGLVDEOHG IDPLO\ PHPEHU )LUVW ZH SUHVHQW DQ XUEDQUXUDO GLVWULEXWLRQ RI KRXVHKROGVLQFOXGHGLQWKHVXUYH\
7DEOH 8UEDQ±UXUDOGLVWULEXWLRQRIKRXVHKROGV
8UEDQUXUDO 'LVDEOHG++ 1RQGLVDEOHG ++
7RWDO
KRXVHKROG 1 1 1
8UEDQ
5XUDO
7RWDO
$ KLJKHU SURSRUWLRQ RI KRXVHKROGV ZLWK GLVDEOHG PHPEHUV LV IRXQGLQUXUDODUHDVχ S7KLVLVDVDQWLFLSDWHG DQGDFFRUGLQJWRSUHYLRXVVWXGLHV%UXKQVHWDO
(03/2<0(17
7DEOH (PSOR\PHQW
'LVDEOHG++ 1RQGLVDEOHG ++
7RWDO ,VVRPHRQHLQ
WKH
KRXVHKROG
ZRUNLQJ" 1 1 1
1R
<HV
7RWDO
6LJQLILFDQWO\PRUHKRXVHKROGVZLWKRQHRUPRUHGLVDEOHGIDPLO\
PHPEHUV KDYH QR RQH HPSOR\HG DV FRPSDUHG WR WKH QRQGLVDEOHG KRXVHKROGV GI S 7KH SDWWHUQ LV FRQVLVWHQW LQ ERWK XUEDQ DQG UXUDO GLVWULFWV (PSOR\PHQW LV KLJKHU LQ XUEDQ DUHDV ZLWK RI KRXVHKROGVUHSRUWLQJVRPHRQHZRUNLQJFRPSDUHGWRRQO\
LQUXUDODUHDV&DXWLRQ7KHVHILJXUHVVKRXOGQRWEHLQWHUSUHWHG DVHPSOR\PHQWUDWHV,QXUEDQDUHDVRIKRXVHKROGVZLWK DGLVDEOHGPHPEHUUHSRUWVRPHRQHZRUNLQJFRPSDUHGWR RI QRQGLVDEOHG KRXVHKROGV ZKLOH UXUDO DUHD UHSRUW DQG UHVSHFWLYHO\ DOO GLIIHUHQFHV VWDWLVWLFDOO\ VLJQLILFDQW S
,QFRPHDQGH[SHQVHVZHUHPHDVXUHGLQ11DPLELDQ'ROODUV 1 86'0D[LPXPQXPEHURISRVVHVVLRQV ZDV
7DEOH ,QFRPHH[SHQVHVDQGSRVVHVVLRQV +RXVHKROGLQFRPH
PRQWK :HLJKWHG :HLJKWHG
1 PHDQ 1 PHDQ
*RRGPRQWK FDWHJRU\ 1
'LVDELOLW\VXUYH\
&RQWUROJURXS
%DGPRQWK
'LVDELOLW\VXUYH\
&RQWUROJURXS
([SHQVHV
'LVDELOLW\VXUYH\
&RQWUROJURXS
3RVVHVVLRQV
'LVDELOLW\VXUYH\
&RQWUROJURXS
,QFRPHDQGH[SHQVHVZHUHUHFRUGERWKDVH[DFWDPRXQWVDQGLQ WKH IRUP RI FDWHJRULHV DERYH IRU WKRVH ZKR GLG QRW ZDQW WR GLVFORVHWKHH[DFWDPRXQWV)RUWKHSXUSRVHVRIDQDO\VLVH[DFW GROODU DPRXQWV ZHUH UHFRGHG LQ WR FDWHJRULHV LQ RUGHU WR H[SDQGWKHUHVSRQVHSHUFHQW5HVXOWVDUHKRZHYHU SUHVHQWLQ ERWKIRUPV%HLQJDZDUHWKDWLQPDQ\KRXVHKROGVLQFRPHPD\
IOXFWXDWHVHDVRQDOO\IRUH[DPSOHGHSHQGHQWRQWKHVDOHRIIDUP SURGXFH ZH DVNHG LQ DGGLWLRQ IRU LQIRUPDWLRQ WR UHIOHFW LQFRPH DQG H[SHQVHV GXULQJ D JRRG PRQWK DQG D EDG PRQWK 5HVXOWVDUHSUHVHQWHGIRUERWK
,W DSSHDUV IURP WKH UHVXOWV SUHVHQWHG LQ 7DEOH WKDW KRXVHKROGVZLWKGLVDEOHGPHPEHUVKDYHORZHUPHDQLQFRPH OHVV PHDQ H[SHQVHV UHJDUGOHVV RI VHDVRQDO IOXFWXDWLRQV 0HDQVDUHZHLJKWHGE\VL]HRIKRXVHKROGV±DQGDOOGLIIHUHQFHV DUHVWDWLVWLFDOO\VLJQLILFDQWS)XUWKHUPRUHKRXVHKROGV ZLWK D GLVDEOHG IDPLO\ PHPEHU KDYH RQ DYHUDJH IHZHU SRVVHVVLRQV DV FRPSDUHG WR KRXVHKROGV ZLWKRXW GLVDEOHG PHPEHUV
:KLOHILJXUHVDUHORZHUIRUUXUDODUHDVFRPSDUHGWRXUEDQDUHDV WKHDERYHGLIIHUHQFHVE\DUHDDUHFRQVLVWHQW
&DWHJRULHVDPRXQWLQ1DPLELDQ ±±
± ± ± !
)HZHU GLVDEOHG KRXVHKROGV VWDWHG WKDW VDODULHG ZRUN ZDV WKH SULPDU\ VRXUFH RI LQFRPH ± YHUVXV DQG WKLV UHIOHFWV WKH IDFW WKDW IHZHU KRXVHKROGV ZLWK GLVDEOHG IDPLO\
PHPEHUV KDG VRPHRQH ZRUNLQJ VHH DERYH 6OLJKWO\ PRUH GLVDEOHG KRXVHKROGV UHFHLYHG WKHLU IDPLO\ LQFRPH IURP FDVK FURSSLQJ RU VXEVLVWHQFH IDUPLQJ ± DQG RI DOO VXFK KRXVHKROGV RI JDYH GLVDELOLW\ JUDQW DV WKH IDPLO\
SULPDU\VRXUFHRILQFRPH
