• No results found

Job creation, heterogeneous workers and technical change : matched worker/plant data : evidence from Norway

N/A
N/A
Protected

Academic year: 2022

Share "Job creation, heterogeneous workers and technical change : matched worker/plant data : evidence from Norway"

Copied!
59
0
0

Laster.... (Se fulltekst nå)

Fulltekst

(1)

Discussion Papers No. 304, August 2001 Statistics Norway, Research Department

Kjell G. Salvanes and Svein Erik Førre

Job Creation, Heterogeneous Workers and Technical

Change:

Matched Worker/Plant Data Evidence from Norway

Abstract:

Using matched worker/plant level data for Norway, theories explaining the change in skill composition are assessed using direct evidence on the job creation and destruction for high, medium and low skilled workers. Skill based job creation is analysed in detail for plants in a high-skill service sector and in low- and high-tech manufacturing sectors. Given a

compressed wage structure in Norway and increased supply of high skilled workers, the supply of skills may also explain the changed skill composition. In order to disentangle the supply and demand effects, we fix the skill level by analysing the job creation process for skills within cohorts of workers.

Keywords: Job creation, heterogeneous workers, heterogeneous plants, technical change.

JEL classification: J23, J63, O33.

Acknowledgement: We thank Paola Bota, Tor Jakob Klette, Kjell Erik Lommerud, participants at IFS workshop «Unemployment, Job Creation and Technical Change»

November 8 1996, and seminar participants at the University of Bergen, University of Oslo and The Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration, for useful comments and suggestions to an earlier draft of the paper.

Address: Kjell G. Salvanes, Department of Economics Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration. Helleveien 30, N-3036 Bergen-Sandviken Norway.

Email:kjell.salvanes@nhh.no

Svein Erik Førre, Statistics Norway, Research Department, P.O. Box 8131 Dep., N-0033 Oslo Norway. E-mail: sef @ssb.no

(2)

Discussion Papers comprise research papers intended for international journals or books. As a pre- print a Discussion Paper can be longer and more elaborate than a standard jour- nal article by including intermediate calculation and background material etc.

Abstracts with downloadable PDF files of

Discussion Papers are available on the Internet: http://www.ssb.no

For printed Discussion Papers contact:

Statistics Norway

Sales- and subscription service N-2225 Kongsvinger

Telephone: +47 62 88 55 00 Telefax: +47 62 88 55 95

E-mail: Salg-abonnement@ssb.no

(3)

4 Lqwurgxfwlrq

Lq dgydqfhg lqgxvwuldolvhg frxqwulhv/ wkh 4<;3v dqg 4<<3v kdyh ehhq fkdudfwhulvhg e| d vwurqj uhodwlyh hpsor|phqw vkliw lq idyrxu ri vnloohg zrunhuv1 Pdq| frxqwulhv kdyh zlwqhvvhg fkdqjlqj oderxu pdunhw rxwfrphv iru xqvnloohg zrunhuv vxfk dv idoolqj uhodwlyh zdjhv dqg2ru ulvlqj xqhpsor|phqw udwhv14 Wkh frqvhqvxv wkdw kdv hphujhg lv wkdw wkhvh ghyhorsphqwv pd| eh h{sodlqhg e| dq h{fhvv ghpdqg iru vnloov wkdw lv gxh wr hlwkhu vnloo0eldvhg whfkqrorjlfdo fkdqjh ru lqfuhdvhg wudgh zlwk ghyhorslqj frxqwulhv15 Wkh lghd wkdw vnloo0eldvhg whfkqrorjlfdo fkdqjh lv wkh nh| h{sodqdwlrq kdv ehhq vxssruwhg e| wzr pdlq dqdo|vhv= dqdo|vlv ri wkh sdwwhuq ri vnloo frpsrvlwlrq dqg dqdo|vlv ri zdjh suhplxpv wr zrunhuv xvlqj frpsxwhuv1 Wkh frpshwlqj h{sodqdwlrq kdv dovr ehhq vxssruwhg e| hpslulfdo qglqjv/ exw uhpdlqv pruh frqwuryhuvldo1

Wkh suhvhqw sdshu dqdo|vhv wkh hhfwv ri wudgh dqg whfkqrorj| rq fkdqjhv lq vnloo frpsrvlwlrq dw wkh sodqw ohyho xvlqj olqnhg hpsor|hu0hpsor|hh gdwd iru Qruzd|1 Vhyhudo fkdudfwhulvwlfv ri wkh Qruzhjldq hfrqrp| pdnh wklv frxqwu| dq lghdo fdvh iru wkh dqdo|vlv ri hhfwv ri wudgh dqg *wkuhdw ri wudgh*1 Iluvw/ wkh Qruzhjldq hfrqrp| lv d yhu| rshq rqh1 Pruhryhu/ dv qrwhg e| ydulrxv dxwkruv/

Qruzd| ghprqvwudwhv d frpsuhvvhg zdjh vwuxfwxuh wkdw kdv qrw fkdqjhg pxfk ryhu wlph/ fi1 Ddehujh/ Emûunoxqg/ Mdqqwl/ Shghuvhq/ Vplwk dqg Zhqqhpr +5333,/

Kéjhodqg/ Nohwwh dqg Vdoydqhv +4<<<, dqg Ndkq +4<<;,16 Dv d frqvhtxhqfh/

zh gr qrw h{shfw fkdqjhv lq lpsruw frpshwlwlrq ru *wkuhdwv ri wudgh* wkdw vkliw lqgxvwu| surgxfw ghpdqg/ ru hpsor|phqw vkliwv lq wkh vdph gluhfwlrq/ wr eh gdpshqhg e| zdjh dgmxvwphqwv1 Wkxv/ d wkuhdw ri wudgh pd| hdvlo| ehfrph uhdolw|1

Wzr ihdwxuhv ri rxu dqdo|vlv glvwlqjxlvk lw iurp prvw ri wkh hpslulfdo olwhud0 wxuh rq vnloo0eldvhg whfkqrorjlfdo fkdqjh dqg wudgh1 Iluvw/ dqg prvw lpsruwdqwo|/

rxu gdwd doorzv dq dqdo|vlv ri zkhwkhu wkh fkdqjh lq vnloo frpsrvlwlrq lv wdn0 lqj sodfh iru doo wkh sodqwv lq hdfk vhfwru ru zkhwkhu wkh uhdoorfdwlrq ri mrev lv dfurvv sodqwv/ uhvxowlqj lq d juhdwhu glvshuvlrq ri vnloov dfurvv hqwhusulvhv1 Lq dg0 glwlrq/ zh frqvlghu zkhwkhu lqfuhdvhg khwhurjhqhlw| ri vnloo frpsrvlwlrq dfurvv sodqwv ru vhjuhjdwlrq ri vnloov dfurvv sodqwv lv uhodwhg wr sodqw0vshflf phdvxuhv ri whfkqrorjlfdo fkdqjh1 Vhfrqg/ xvlqj d olqnhg hpsor|hu0hpsor|hh gdwd vhw vxfk dv rxuv lq wkh dqdo|vlv ri jurvv hpsor|phqw fkdqjhv hqdeohv xv wr whvw zkhwkhu wkh lpsdfw ri wudgh dqg whfkqrorj| iru glhuhqw hgxfdwlrq fdwhjrulhv dqg zrunhu frkruwv lv irxqg sulpdulo| dorqj wkh jurvv fuhdwlrq ru jurvv ghvwuxfwlrq pdujlqv1

4Pxusk| dqg Zhofk +4<<5,/ Ndw} dqg Pxusk| +4<<5, Ndw}/ Oryhpdq dqg Eodqfk rzhu +4<<8,/ Hglq dqg Kropoxqg +4<<8,/ dqg Hqwrui/ Jroodf dqg Nudpdu} +4<<<,1

5D wklug h{sodqdwlrq iru fkdqjhv lq wkh zdjh glvshuvlrq dqg vnloo glhuhqwldov lv fkdqjhv lq oderxu pdunhw lqvwlwxwlrqv1 Vhh iru lqvwdqfh Jrvolqj dqg Pdfklq +4<<8, dqg Ndkq +4<<;,1

6Ndkq +4<<;, dqg Kéjhodqg hw do1 +4<<<, dqdo|vh wzr srvvleoh h{sodqdwlrqv iru zk| wkh Qruzhjldq zdjh vwuxfwxuh lv frpsuhvvhg1 Wkh suhvhqw sdshu dqdo|}hv wkh vwuxfwxuh ri fkdqjhg ghpdqg iru vnloov1

(4)

Wkh prwlydwlrq iru wkhvh wzr duhdv ri irfxv lv dv iroorzv=

Wkh prwlydwlrq iru lqyhvwljdwlqj zkhwkhu wkh fkdqjh lv wdnlqj sodfh lq doo sodqwv lq d vhfwru ru zkhwkhu wkhuh lv d uhdoorfdwlrq ri mrev dfurvv exvlqhvv hq0 whusulvhv olhv lq wkh idfw wkdw wkh lpsolfdwlrqv ri wkhvh wzr rxwfrphv duh ydvwo|

glhuhqw1 Lqfuhdvhg ghpdqg iru vnloohg zrunhuv/ gulyhq e|/ iru lqvwdqfh/ whfkqr0 orjlfdo fkdqjh/ frxog wdnh sodfh lq doo sodqwv lq d vhfwru/ dqg wkxv eh uhdolvhg dv d fkdqjh lq wkh vnloo pl{ lq doo sodqwv1 Dowhuqdwlyho|/ vnloo xsjudglqj pd| rffxu yld uhdoorfdwlrq ri vnloohg mrev dqg zrunhuv iurp fhuwdlq sodqwv wr rwkhuv/ phdvxuhg dv ehwzhhq0sodqw uhdoorfdwlrq1 Wkh odwwhu lpsolhv d whqghqf| wrzdugv juhdwhu glvshu0 vlrq dfurvv exvlqhvvhv/ wkxv suhglfwlqj juhdwhu vhjuhjdwlrq lq wkh oderxu pdunhw dfurvv sodqwv1

Wkhruhwlfdo zrun e| Nuhphu +4<<6, dqg Nuhphu dqg Pdvnlq +4<<9, rq wkh hhfw ri vnloo0eldvhg whfkqrorjlfdo fkdqjh suhglfwv fkdqjhv lq vnloo pl{/ surgxf0 wlylw|/ dqg zdjhv dfurvv sodqwv/ qrw fkdqjhv iru doo sodqwv1 Lq wkh prgho/ wkh pdlq uhdvrq iru wklv suhglfwlrq lv wkdw whfkqrorjlfdo fkdqjh pd| ohdg wr ohvv vxevwlwxwdelolw| ri vnloov lq surgxfwlrq/ zkloh wdvnv zlwklq d sodqw frxog ehfrph vwurqjhu frpsohphqwv1 Wkh odwwhu phfkdqlvp frxog ohdg wr pdwfklqj ri zrunhuv ri vlplodu vnloov lq sodqwv1

Vxssruw iru wkhvh surfhvvhv lv surylghg e| Nuhphu dqg Pdvnlq +4<<9, dqg hvshfldoo| e| Gxqqh/ Irvwhu/ Kdowlzdqjhu dqg Wurvnh +5333,/ zlwk lqgxvwu|0ohyho gdwd e| Fdvhool +4<<<,1 Lq dgglwlrq/ zrun e| Irvwhu/ Kdowlzdqjhu dqg Nul}dq +4<<;, vxjjhvwv wkdw wkhuh duh lpsruwdqw surwdelolw| jdlqv wkdw uhvxow iurp wkh uhdoorfdwlrq ri idfwruv ri surgxfwlrq iurp ohvv surgxfwlyh wr pruh surgxfwlyh sodqwv zlwklq qduurzo| ghqhg vhfwruv lq wkh XV1

Wkh idfw wkdw zh xwlolvh sodqw0ohyho gdwd doorzv xv wr ghfrpsrvh mre uhdoorfd0 wlrq lqwr wkdw zlwklq dqg wkdw ehwzhhq sodqwv/ dqg wkh olqnhg hpsor|hu0hpsor|hh gdwd doorzv xv wr frqgxfw wklv ghfrpsrvlwlrq iru zrunhuv ri glhuhqw vnloo ru hg0 xfdwlrq ohyhov1 Pruhryhu/ dv zh kdyh dffhvv wr sodqw0ohyho lqirupdwlrq rq lqyhvw0 phqw lq sk|vlfdo fdslwdo/ zh duh deoh wr frqvwuxfw d sodqw0ohyho lqgh{ ri pdfklqh fdslwdo ylqwdjh Pdluhvvh +4<:;,1 Wklv hqdeohv xv wr whvw zkhwkhu whfkqrorjlfdo fkdqjh +dv vkrzq e| wklv lqgh{, fdq h{sodlq uhdoorfdwlrq ri mrev dqg zrunhuv/

dqg wkxv zkhwkhu lqfuhdvhg vhjuhjdwlrq ehwzhhq sodqwv lv gulyhq e| whfkqrorjlfdo fkdqjh ru/ dowhuqdwlyho|/ e| lqfuhdvhg wudgh frpshwlwlrq1 Dq dgglwlrqdo txhvwlrq wkdw zh frqvlghu lq frqqhfwlrq zlwk vnloo pl{ dqg whfkqrorjlfdo fkdqjh lv zkhwkhu uhvwuxfwxulqj rffxuv wkurxjk fkdqjlqj surgxfwlrq olqhv dqg wkh lqwurgxfwlrq ri qhz whfkqrorj| iru frqwlqxlqj sodqwv/ ru wkurxjk qhz sodqw hqwulhv zlwk qhz fdslwdo dqg kljko| vnloohg zrunhuv frpelqhg zlwk h{lwlqj ri rog sodqwv zlwk ohvv vnloohg zrunhuv1 Rqfh djdlq/ jlyhq rxu ghwdlohg/ olqnhg hpsor|hu0hpsor|hh gdwd vhw/ zklfk dovr lghqwlhv sodqw h{lw dqg hqwu|/ zh duh deoh wr vhsdudwh mre fuhdwlrq dqg mre ghvwuxfwlrq e| vnloo glhuhqfhv ri sodqw wxuqryhu +hqwu| dqg h{lw, dqg mre wxuqryhu iru frqwlqxlqj sodqwv1

Zh h{sorlw wkh jurvv zrunhu dqg jurvv mre iudphzrun lq rxu vhwwlqj wr rewdlq d pxfk pruh ghwdlohg slfwxuh ri wkh hpsor|phqw hhfwv ri wudgh dqg whfkqrorjlfdo

(5)

fkdqjh/ fi1 Gdylv dqg Kdowlzdqjhu +4<<5, dqg Exujhvv/ Odqh dqg Vwhyhqv +5333,1 Dv wkh jurvv mre rz olwhudwxuh glvwlqjxlvkhv ehwzhhq h{sdqglqj dqg frqwudfwlqj sodqwv dorqj d vfdoh ri zrunhu w|shv/ dqg dv zh fdq olqn wkhvh fkdqjhv wr fkdqjhv lq sdwwhuq ri wudgh dw wkh vhfwru ohyho dqg lqglfhv ri whfkqrorjlfdo fkdqjh dw wkh sodqw ohyho/ zh duh wkxv deoh wr ghulyh wzr frqwhqglqj k|srwkhvhv1 Zh pd|

lqyhvwljdwh zkhwkhu lqfuhdvhg lpsruw frpshwlwlrq ohdgv wr glvsodfhphqw ri orz vnloohg zrunhuv ru zkhwkhu qhz mrev duh qrw fuhdwhg iru orz vnloohg zrunhuv lq sodqwv idflqj vwlhu iruhljq frpshwlwlrq1 Wkh glvwlqfwlrq ehwzhhq wkhvh wzr lv qrw dssduhqw iurp dq dqdo|vlv ri qhw fkdqjhv wkdw grhv qrw glvwlqjxlvk ehwzhhq mre fuhdwlrq dqg mre ghvwuxfwlrq1 Krzhyhu/ wkh wzr zloo kdyh glhuhqw srolf|

lpsolfdwlrqv1 Lq idfw/ glvsodfhphqwv iurp lqfuhdvhg wudgh ru whfkqrorjlfdo fkdqjh duh wkh juhdwhvw frqfhuq ri srolf| pdnhuv dqg wkh jhqhudo sxeolf/ dqg erwk sulydwh dqg sxeolf dgmxvwphqw frvwv ghshqg sulpdulo| rq jurvv fkdqjhv1

Lq d vlplodu yhlq/ zh duh dovr deoh wr whvw zkhwkhu wkh fkdqjh lq hpsor|phqw iru kljk dqg orz vnloohg zrunhuv lv irxqg dw glhuhqw pdujlqv/ l1h1 lqyroylqj mre fuhdwlrq ru mre ghvwuxfwlrq/ iurp whfkqrorjlfdo fkdqjh1 Wklv lv/ lq idfw/ rqh ri wkh ihdwxuhv wkdw glvwlqjxlvkhv rxu dssurdfk iurp wkh vwdqgdug dssurdfkhv wdnhq lq wkh vnloo0eldvhg whfkqrorjlfdo fkdqjh olwhudwxuh +vhh Fkhqqhov dqg Uhhqhq +4<<<, iru d uhylhz ri wkh olwhudwxuh,1

Wkh vwuxfwxuh ri rxu sdshu lv dv iroorzv= Lq Vhfwlrq 5 zh surylgh d ghvfulswlrq ri wkh gdwd vhw dqg d eulhi ryhuylhz ri wkh Qruzhjldq hfrqrp|1 Vhfwlrq 6 lqfoxghv d ghwdlohg ghvfulswlrq ri rxu phwkrgrorj|/ zlwk sduwlfxodu hpskdvlv rq wkh frq0 qhfwlrq ehwzhhq wkh jurvv mre dqg zrunhu olwhudwxuh dqg sodqw0ohyho prghov ri g|qdplf ghpdqg iru oderxu1 Vhfwlrq 6 dovr suhvhqwv d glvfxvvlrq ri wkh fkdqjh lq vnloo frpsrvlwlrq lq wkh Qruzhjldq hfrqrp|1 Wkh frqfoxvlrq lv wkdw wkh fkdqjh lq Qruzd| lv dw wkh vdph ohyho ri pdjqlwxgh dv wkdw lq rwkhu RHFG frxqwulhv/

dv phdvxuhg e| wkh vwdqgdug ghfrpsrvlwlrq irupxod/ fi1 Ehupdq/ Erxqg dqg Julolfkhv +4<<7,1 Lq Vhfwlrq 7/ zh dujxh wkdw wkh jurvv zrunhu dqg mre uhdoorfd0 wlrq rzv uhsuhvhqw lpsruwdqw fkdqjhv lq wkh Qruzhjldq hfrqrp| dqg wkdw wkh fkdqjhv duh lq idyrxu ri kljko| hgxfdwhg zrunhuv1 Rqfh pruh/ wkh irfxv lv rq wkh txhvwlrq ri wkh pdujlq dw zklfk wkhvh fkdqjhv duh irxqg1 Duh wkh fkdqjhv lq vnloo frpsrvlwlrq rffxuulqj wkurxjk glvsodfhphqw ri orz hgxfdwhg zrunhuv ru wkurxjk d kljkhu ghjuhh ri mre fuhdwlrq iru wkh kljko| hgxfdwhgB Dqdo|vhv duh fduulhg rxw iru pdqxidfwxulqj dqg d vhohfwhg vhuylfh vhfwru/ khuh wkh qdqfldo vhfwru1 Wkh prwlydwlrq iru lqfoxglqj d vhuylfh vhfwru lv wkh srvvlelolw| wkdw wkh djjuhjdwlrq iurp sodqwv wr vhfwru iru pdqxidfwxulqj pd| duelwudulo| djjuhjdwh kljk vnloo dqg orz vnloo sodqwv1 Zh wkhq vkrz wkdw wkh qglqjv uhsuhvhqw shupdqhqw ru orqj0whup vwuxfwxudo fkdqjhv/ qrw phuh f|folfdo xfwxdwlrqv1

Dq lpsruwdqw dvvxpswlrq lq suhylrxv vwxglhv ri fkdqjlqj vnloo frpsrvlwlrq lv wkdw dq revhuyhg fkdqjh lq vnloo frpsrvlwlrq pd| rqo| eh h{sodlqhg e| d fkdqjh lq wkh ghpdqg iru vnloov> lw pd| qrw eh h{sodlqhg e| dq lqfuhdvh lq wkh jhqhudo ohyho ri hgxfdwlrq lq wkh zrunirufh1 Wkh vxsso| ri phglxp dqg kljko| hgxfdwhg zrunhuv kdv lqfuhdvhg lq Qruzd| lq wkh 4<;3v dqg 4<<3v1 Dq lqfuhdvhg vxsso| ri

(6)

hgxfdwlrq lv qhfhvvdu| li wkh vnloo frpsrvlwlrq lq d frxqwu| lv fkdqjlqj wrzdugv d kljkhu ohyho ri hgxfdwlrq1 Krzhyhu/ wkh lvvxh dw vwdnh lv zkhwkhu lw lv vxsso|

ru ghpdqg wkdw lv wkh fdxvh ri wkh fkdqjh +vhh/ iru lqvwdqfh/ Fdvhool +4<<<,,1 Lq rwkhu zrugv/ wkh txhvwlrq lv zkhwkhu zh duh zlwqhvvlqj wkh eluwk ri *qhz* mrev/

zkhuh sodqwv ghpdqg dqg fuhdwh qhz wdvn uhtxluhphqwv/ ru zkhwkhu *rog mrev* duh phuho| ehlqj oohg zlwk pruh kljko| hgxfdwhg zrunhuv1 Zh duh deoh wr dgguhvv wklv txhvwlrq lq sduw e| {lqj wkh vxsso| ri hgxfdwlrq dqg hydoxdwlqj wkh sdwwhuq ri mre fkdqjhv iru hgxfdwlrq fdwhjrulhv zlwklq zrunhu frkruwv1

Lq Vhfwlrq 8/ zh ghfrpsrvh wkh djjuhjdwh fkdqjhv lqwr ehwzhhq0sodqw fkdqjhv dqg fkdqjhv wdnlqj sodfh zlwklq doo sodqwv1 Zh dovr dqdo|vh wkh uroh ri uhvwuxfwxu0 lqj yld sodqw h{lw/ hqwu|/ dqg frqwlqxdwlrq1 Lq Vhfwlrq 914 zh surylgh ghvfulswlyh vwdwlvwlfv wr olqn wkh revhuyhg fkdqjhv lq jurvv mre rzv iru glhuhqw vnloo ohyhov wr revhuyhg fkdqjhv lq lpsruw dqg h{sruw frpshwlwlrq dqg wr wkh lqgh{ iru whfk0 qrorjlfdo fkdqjh1 Dv ghvfulswlyh vwdwlvwlfv zloo klgh khwhurjhqhlw| dfurvv sodqwv/

zh vshfli| g|qdplf sodqw0ohyho ghpdqg ixqfwlrqv iru mre dqg zrunhu rzv1 Lq grlqj vr/ zh frqvlghu h{sdqglqj dqg frqwudfwlqj sodqwv vhsdudwho| iru wrwdo kluhv dqg iru ydulrxv fdwhjrulhv ri zrunhuv1

Dv rxu dlp lv wr whvw wkh frpshwlqj k|srwkhvhv ri wudgh dqg whfkqrorjlfdo fkdqjh hhfwv rq mre dqg zrunhu uhdoorfdwlrq/ zh dxjphqw wkh ghpdqg ixqfwlrqv e| lqglfhv iru wudgh dqg whfkqrorjlfdo fkdqjh1 Wklv lv grqh lq Vhfwlrq 9151 Ixuwkhu/

vlqfh sodqw0ohyho khwhurjhqhlw| lv ri sduwlfxodu lqwhuhvw/ zh lqwurgxfh sodqw0ohyho phdvxuhv ri whfkqrorj| +pdfklqh fdslwdo ylqwdjh, lq rughu wr dqdo|vh wklv khw0 hurjhqhlw|1 Zh dovr fduu| rxw wkh dqdo|vhv lq dq lqgxvwu| +60gljlw,0{hg hhfw iudphzrun lq rughu wr irfxv rq ehwzhhq0sodqw fkdqjhv zlwklq lqgxvwulhv1 Zh sur0 fhhg wr whvw wkh urexvwqhvv ri rxu uhvxowv e| lqfoxglqj rwkhu sodqw dqg lqgxvwu|

yduldeohv wkdw pljkw h{sodlq d srvvleoh olqn ehwzhhq/ iru lqvwdqfh/ mre ghvwuxf0 wlrq udwhv dqg h{srvxuh wr wudgh ru whfkqrorjlfdo fkdqjh1 Vhfwlrq : suhvhqwv rxu frqfoxvlrq1

5 Wkh Qruzhjldq Hfrqrp| dqg Gdwd Vhw

Lq wklv vhfwlrq/ zh surylgh d eulhi ryhuylhz ri wkh Qruzhjldq hfrqrp| lq wkh shulrg ri rxu dqdo|vlv/ dv zhoo dv d ghvfulswlrq ri rxu gdwd vhw1 Lw lv rxu frqwhqwlrq wkdw Qruzd| uhsuhvhqwv dq h{fhswlrq wr wkh jhqhudo RHFG whqghqf| wrzdugv d zlghqlqj zdjh jds lq jhqhudo dqg lqfuhdvhg uhwxuqv wr hgxfdwlrq lq sduwlfxodu1 Wklv ihdwxuh ri wkh Qruzhjldq hfrqrp| pdnhv lw dq lghdo fdvh iru wkh lqyhvwljdwlrq ri wudgh hhfwv/ dv hpsor|phqw hhfwv duh qrw gdpshqhg e| zdjh dgmxvwphqw1 Lq rughu wr dujxh wkdw wkh Qruzhjldq hfrqrp| lv dq lqwhuhvwlqj fdvh lq wklv uhvshfw/

zh pxvw dovr ghprqvwudwh wkdw lw vkduhv sdwwhuqv ri wudgh dqg U ) G lqyhvwphqw zlwk rwkhu RHFG frxqwulhv li zh duh wr jhqhudolvh rq rxu frqfoxvlrqv1 Wkxv/ zh vkdoo frpsduh wkh Qruzhjldq pdqxidfwxulqj vhfwru xqghu dqdo|vlv khuh zlwk wkdw lq rwkhu RHFG frxqwulhv dorqj wkhvh glphqvlrqv wr vkrz wkdw wkh sdwwhuqv lq

(7)

txhvwlrq duh vlplodu ryhu frxqwulhv1

514 Gdwd ghvfulswlrq

Lq wklv sdshu/ zh gudz rq qxphurxv gdwd vrxufhv1 Prvw lpsruwdqw lv wkh olqnhg hpsor|hu0hpsor|hh gdwd vhw edvhg rq glhuhqw dgplqlvwudwlyh ohv iurp Vwdwlvwlfv Qruzd|/ vxssohphqwhg zlwk sodqw0ohyho lqirupdwlrq rq hfrqrplf shuirupdqfh iru sodqwv iurp wkh dqqxdo fhqvxv iru pdqxidfwxulqj/ vhh Kdoyruvhq/ Mhqvvhq dqg Ir|q +4<<4,1 Wkh pdlq gdwd vhw kdv dovr ehhq vxssohphqwhg zlwk wudgh vwdwlvwlfv dw wkh 80gljlw LVLF ohyho lq rughu wr frqvwuxfw lpsruw shqhwudwlrq phdvxuhv iurp wkh wudgh vwdwlvwlfv iurp Vwdwlvwlfv Qruzd|1 Zh kdyh dovr dgghg lqirupdwlrq rq zklfk U)G fdwhjru| hdfk 60gljlw lqgxvwu| ehorqjv wr1 Lq dgglwlrq/ wkh RHFG vhfwru ohyho +derxw 60gljlw LVLF, VWDQ gdwdedvh kdv ehhq xvhg dv wkh edvlv iru dq lqwhuqdwlrqdo frpsdulvrq ri lpsruw dqg h{sruw vkduhv lq wkh pdqxidfwxulqj vhfwruv/ dv zhoo dv iru U)G lqwhqvlw| lq wkh pdqxidfwxulqj vhfwru1 Wkh gdwd shulrg h{whqgv iurp 4<;9 wr 4<<71

Lq wkhvh dgplqlvwudwlyh ohv/ lqglylgxdov duh lghqwlhg e| wkhlu shuvrqdo lghq0 wlw| frgh dqg sodqwv e| dq lghqwlfdwlrq frgh1 Wklv hqdeohv xv wr pdwfk shuvrqv wr sodqwv dqg wr frpelqh lqirupdwlrq rq hgxfdwlrq/ djh/ whqxuh hwf1 zlwk hpsor|hu fkdudfwhulvwlfv dw wkh lqglylgxdo ohyho1 Rxu gdwdedvh frqwdlqv dqqxdo lqirupdwlrq iru doo hpsor|hg lqglylgxdov ryhu wkh djh ri 49 dqg doo sodqwv lq Qruzd|1 Wkh hp0 sor|huv duh lghqwlhg dw wkh sodqw ohyho wkurxjk dq lghqwlfdwlrq frgh ghshqghqw rq jhrjudsklfdo orfdwlrq dqg lqghshqghqw ri rzqhuvkls frqglwlrqv1 Zh uhvwulfw rxu dwwhqwlrq wr sodqwv zlwk dq dyhudjh vl}h ri dw ohdvw yh hpsor|hhv/ vlqfh sodqw0 ru up0vshflf lqirupdwlrq lv qrw dydlodeoh iru sodqwv ehorz yh hpsor|hhv1 Zkhq phujlqj wkh gdwd iurp wkh pdqxidfwxulqj vhfwru fhqvxv oh iru wkh hfrqrphwulf dqdo|vlv/ wkh pdwfk e| sodqw qxpehuv zdv irxpg wr eh derxw <3 shufhqw1

Lq wkh vhfrqg txduwhu hdfk |hdu hyhu| zrunhu lv pdwfkhg wr klv2khu pdlq hpsor|hu1 Wkh vwduw gdwh ri wklv pdwfk lv surylghg e| wkh pdlq hpsor|hu/ dv lv wkh vwrs gdwh1 Iru hdfk zrunhu/ wkh iroorzlqj lqirupdwlrq lv dydlodeoh iru wkh shulrg iurp 4<;9 wr 4<<7= zrunlqj krxuv shu zhhn/ xqlrq phpehuvkls/ zkhwkhu wkh zrunhu krogv pxowlsoh mrev/ dqqxdo lqfrph/ hgxfdwlrq/ dqg edvlf ghprjudsklf edfnjurxqg yduldeohv1 Hgxfdwlrq ohyho lv edvhg rq wkh qrupdo gxudwlrq ri wkh hgx0 fdwlrq dqg lqfoxghv rqo| frpsohwhg surjudpv ri hgxfdwlrq +dqg kljkhvw dwwdlqhg, hgxfdwlrq1 Doo frxuvhv ri irupdo hgxfdwlrq h{fhhglqj 633 krxuv duh uhjlvwhuhg1 Wkh hpsor|huv duh lghqwlhg dw wkh sodqw ohyho e| dq lghqwlfdwlrq frgh wkdw lv ghshqghqw rq jhrjudsklfdo orfdwlrq dqg lqghshqghqw ri rzqhuvkls frqglwlrqv1 D qxpehu ri sodqw0vshflf yduldeohv duh dydlodeoh iru rxu vwxg|= sodqw dqg up vl}h/

ydoxh ri surgxfwlrq/ lqvxudqfh ydoxh ri fdslwdo/ ydoxh dgghg/ dqg lqyhvwphqw1 Iru wkh hfrqrphwulf dqdo|vlv rqo| zrunhuv zlwk ixoo0wlph mrev +63 krxuv ru pruh shu zhhn, zhuh lqfoxghg1 Iru wkh ghvfulswlyh vwdwlvwlfv doo zrunhuv zhuh xvhg1 Vhh wkh Dsshqgl{ iru suhflvh ghqlwlrqv1

(8)

515 Fkdudfwhulvwlfv ri wkh hfrqrp|

51514 Zdjh glvwulexwlrq/uhwxuqv wr hgxfdwlrq dqg hpsor|phqw Lq wkh iroorzlqj/ zh suhvhqw d eulhi ryhuylhz ri wkh Qruzhjldq oderxu pdunhw wr vhuyh dv d edfnjurxqg iru wkh dqdo|vlv1 Dv lq prvw rwkhu frxqwulhv/ wkh Qruzhjldq oderxu pdunhw kdv h{shulhqfhg d ghfuhdvh lq wkh vxsso| ri orz0hgxfdwhg zrunhuv dv wkh vkduh ri wkh wrwdo oderxu irufh kdv ghfolqhg vlqfh wkh 4<;3v1 Wkh vxsso| ri phglxp0 dqg kljko| hgxfdwhg zrunhuv kdv lqfuhdvhg/ vkrzq lq Iljxuh 41

Iljxuh 4 khuh1

Lw kdv ehhq zhoo grfxphqwhg hovhzkhuh wkdw wkh Qruzhjldq hfrqrp| lv fkdu0 dfwhul}hg e| d yhu| frpsuhvvhg zdjh glvwulexwlrq dqg wkdw wkhuh kdv qrw ehhq dq|

zlghqlqj ri wkh jds lq wkh shulrg xqghu dqdo|vlv khuh/ l1h1 4<;904<<7 +Ddehujh hw do1 +5333,/ Kéjhodqg hw do1 +4<<<, dqg Ndkq +4<<;,,1 Lq wklv vhfwlrq/ zh vkrz lq Iljxuh 5 wkdw wklv lv dovr wuxh iru wkh uhodwlyh hduqlqjv ri wkh hgxfdwlrq fdwh0 jrulhv ri zrunhuv zh duh xvlqj lq wkh suhvhqw dqdo|vlv1 Wkh <3243 shufhqwloh udwlr iru wkh zkroh hfrqrp| xvlqj doo ixoo0wlph zrunhuv lv dovr vkrzq1

Iljxuh 5 khuh1

Wklv ihdwxuh dovr krogv wuxh iru wklv gdwd vhw xvlqj ixoo0wlph zrunhuv1 Lq rwkhu zrugv/ wkhuh kdv qrw ehhq dq lqfuhdvh lq zdjh glvshuvlrq ryhu wlph dqg wkh uhodwlyh vwdwxv ri uhdo hduqlqjv ehwzhhq kljko| dqg phglxp0 dqg kljko| dqg orz0hgxfdwhg zrunhuv lv yhu| vwdeoh ryhu wlph1 Uhwxuqv wr hgxfdwlrq lq wkh gdwd shulrg duh suhvhqwhg lq Iljxuh 6/ zkhuh orj hduqlqjv duh hvwlpdwhg dv d ixqfwlrq ri h{shulhqfh dqg whqxuh dv vhfrqg rughu sro|qrpldov/ zlwk d gxpp| iru jhqghu dqg |hduv ri hgxfdwlrq dv d olqhdu whup1 Uhvxowv iru wkh zkroh hfrqrp| dqg iru pdqxidfwxulqj/ sulydwh vhuylfhv dqg wkh sxeolf vhfwru duh suhvhqwhg1

Iljxuh 6 khuh1

Uhwxuqv wr hgxfdwlrq/ zklfk kdyh ehhq dq lpsruwdqw fdxvh ri wkh fkdqjh lq wkh hduqlqjv glvwulexwlrq lq pdq| frxqwulhv/ kdyh ehhq txlwh vwdeoh ryhu wlph lq Qruzd|/ dv dovr vkrzq lq Kéjhodqg hw do1 +4<<<,1 Uhwxuqv wr hgxfdwlrq lq jhqhudo duh dw wkh orzhu hqg ri wkh vfdoh/ frpsduhg wr rwkhu frxqwulhv1 Dowkrxjk wkhuh duh vxevwdqwldo glhuhqfhv dfurvv vhfwruv/ zlwk wkh sxeolf vhfwru zlwk wkh orzhvw uhwxuqv wr hgxfdwlrq dqg sulydwh vhuylfhv zlwk wkh kljkhvw/ uhwxuqv wr hgxfdwlrq zlwklq hdfk vhfwru kdyh ehhq vwdeoh ryhu wlph/ dv lv vhhq iurp Iljxuh 61

Wkh shulrg zh duh dqdo|}lqj lv dovr rqh wkdw zlwqhvvhg lqfuhdvhg xqhpsor|0 phqw lq wkh Qruzhjldq hfrqrp|1 Wkh xqhpsor|phqw udwh urvh iurp derxw 5 shufhqw lq 4<;92;: wr 9 shufhqw lq 4<<61 Dv uhodwlyh zdjh fkdqjhv lq wkh hfrq0 rp| kdyh ehhq plqlpdo/ wklv pd| kdyh ohg wr fkdqjhv lq txdqwlwlhv lqvwhdg1 Wklv zrxog lpso| kljkhu uhodwlyh xqhpsor|phqw udwhv iru wkh orz0hgxfdwhg zrunhuv1 Lq Iljxuh 7 zh suhvhqw xqhpsor|phqw udwhv iru wkuhh hgxfdwlrq fdwhjrulhv dorqj zlwk wkh uhodwlyh xqhpsor|phqw udwhv iru wkh wkuhh zrunhu fdwhjrulhv xvhg lq wkh vwxg|1

Iljxuh 7 khuh1

(9)

Lw lv fohdu wkdw wkh xqhpsor|phqw udwh zdv lqfuhdvlqj iurp 4<;;2;< rq/ dqg wkdw lw zdv kljkhu iru wkh orz0hgxfdwhg zrunhuv1 Krzhyhu/ wkh uhodwlyh xqhpsor|0 phqw udwhv ehwzhhq wkh phglxp0 dqg orz0hgxfdwhg dqg ehwzhhq wkh kljk0 dqg orz0hgxfdwhg duh txlwh vwdeoh ryhu wlph1 Wkhuh gr qrw dsshdu wr kdyh ehhq dq|

lpsruwdqw fkdqjhv lq wkh uhodwlyh xqhpsor|phqw udwhv/ hyhq li qr fkdqjhv kdyh wdnhq sodfh lq wkh uhodwlyh hduqlqjv li zh phdvxuh dorqj irupdo hgxfdwlrq/ dv zh gr lq wkh suhvhqw vwxg|1

51515 Wudgh dqg whfkqrorj|

Lw lv lpsruwdqw wr rxu dqdo|vlv wr vlwxdwh wkh Qruzhjldq hfrqrp| lq dq lqwhuqd0 wlrqdo frqwh{w zlwk uhvshfw wr whfkqrorj| dqg wudgh1 Zh kdyh grqh vr e| xwlol}lqj lqirupdwlrq iurp d gdwd vhw frpslohg e| wkh RHFG/ nqrzq dv VWDQ +wkh Vwdq0 gduglvhg Dqdo|wlfdo Gdwdedvh,1 Lq wklv lqgxvwu| +60gljlw LVLF ohyho, sdqho gdwd/

edvh phdvxuhv ri U)G dqg wudgh kdyh ehhq frqvwuxfwhg wr surylgh lqwhuqdwlrqdoo|

frpsdudeoh lqgxvwu|0ohyho jxuhv1 Wkh gdwd vhw lv edvhg rq lqirupdwlrq surylghg e| fhqwudo vwdwlvwlfv djhqflhv lq wkh phpehu frxqwulhv1

Lqgxvwu|0ohyho U)G h{shqglwxuh lv phdvxuhg dv wkh dprxqw ri U)G frq0 gxfwhg e| vhfwru1 Lqirupdwlrq rq ydoxh dgghg shu lqgxvwu| lv dovr lqfoxghg1 Dv zh frqfhqwudwh sulpdulo| rq wkh pdqxidfwxulqj vhfwru lq zkdw iroorzv/ zh kdyh fkrvhq wr frqvwuxfw d phdvxuh ri U)G lqwhqvlw| ghqhg dv U)G h{shqglwxuh e|

wkh pdqxidfwxulqj vhfwru/ glylghg e| ydoxh dgghg1 Iljxuh 8 khuh1

Lq Iljxuh 8/ ghyhorsphqw lq U)G lqwhqvlw| lq Qruzd|*v pdqxidfwxulqj vhfwru lv frpsduhg wr ghyhorsphqw lq wkh vdph vhfwru lq Vzhghq dqg wkh XN1 Wkhvh wzr frxqwulhv zhuh fkrvhq iru wzr pdlq uhdvrqv1 Wkh uvw lv wkdw Vzhghq dqg wkh XN uhsuhvhqw h{dpsohv ri d frpsdudeoh vpdoo hfrqrp| dqg d odujh hfrqrp|/

uhvshfwlyho|1 Wkh vhfrqg lv wkdw wkh XN lv rqh ri wkh nh| h{dpsohv ri d frxqwu|

zlwk d zlghqlqj zdjh jds/ dqg wkh lpsdfw ri whfkqrorj| kdv ehhq flwhg dv rqh ri wkh prvw lpsruwdqw h{sodqdwlrqv khuh1

Dv vhhq lq wkh jxuh/ U)G lqwhqvlw| zdv kljkhvw lq Vzhghq lq wkh shulrg lq txhvwlrq/ dqg lw lqfuhdvhg vkduso| iurp 4<<3 rqzdugv1 Wkh XN/ zklfk kdv fohduo| zlwqhvvhg d vwulnlqj vkliw lq wkh glvwulexwlrq ri zdjhv lq idyrxu ri wkh kljko| vnloohg/ ghprqvwudwhv d kljkhu U)G lqwhqvlw| wkdq Qruzd|/ wkrxjk qrw pxfk kljkhu/ dv vhhq lq wkh jxuh17 Lw lv uhohydqw wr qrwh lq wklv frqqhfwlrq wkdw U)G lqwhqvlw| lq wkh Qruzhjldq LW vhfwru +LVLF 6;5/ 6;6/ 6;8, lv yhu| kljk frpsduhg wr wkh RHFG dyhudjh/ dv srlqwhg rxw e| Nohwwh dqg Prhq +4<<<,1 Wkxv/ wkh hhfw ri whfkqrorjlfdo fkdqjh rq wkh ghpdqg iru vnloov lv h{shfwhg wr eh qr ohvv lq wkh Qruzhjldq pdqxidfwxulqj vhfwru wkdq lw lv lq wkh rwkhu RHFG

7Lq Pdfklq/ U|dq dqg Ydq Uhhqhq +4<<9,/ Wdeoh 4/ wkh vdph gdwd vhw lv xvhg dqg wkh XV dqg Ghqpdun duh lqfoxghg/ lq dgglwlrq wr Vzhghq dqg Ghqpdun1 Wkh XV udqnv uvw lq U)G lqwhqvlw| dqg Ghqpdun lv idu ehklqg wkh XN +dqg Qruzd|,1

(10)

frxqwulhv1 Lw lv lpsruwdqw wr qrwh wklv ihdwxuh/ dv zh xvh wkhvh vhfwruv dv wkh U)G0lqwhqvlyh vhfwruv lq wkh uvw sduw ri wkh hfrqrphwulf dqdo|vlv1

Lq Iljxuh 9/ wkh ghyhorsphqw ri wkh vkduh ri lpsruwv dqg h{sruwv uhodwlyh wr wrwdo surgxfwlrq iru wkh pdqxidfwxulqj vhfwru lq wkh wkuhh frxqwulhv lv suhvhqwhg1

Iljxuh 9 khuh1

Iru wkh hfrqrp| dv d zkroh/ lqfoxglqj sulpdu| vhfwruv vxfk dv vkhulhv/ wlp0 ehu surgxfwlrq/ rlo dqg jdv/ Qruzd| ghprqvwudwhv d yhu| kljk h{sruw vkduh ri JGS +Edogzlq/ Iruvol dqg Kddodqg +4<<8,,1 Lq wklv vhqvh/ wkh pdqxidfwxulqj vhfwru lq Qruzd|/ dv suhvhqwhg lq Iljxuh 9/ kdv d uhodwlyho| prghvw h{sruw vkduh1 Wkh h{sruw vkduh iru wkh pdqxidfwxulqj vhfwru lv udqnhg ehwzhhq Vzhghq dqg wkh XN1 Rq wkh rwkhu kdqg/ lpsruw frpshwlwlrq lv h{shfwhg wr kdyh d pruh vljql0 fdqw lpsdfw rq Qruzhjldq pdqxidfwxulqj/ vlqfh wklv vhfwru*v vkduh ri lpsruwv lv kljkhvw= lpsruwv uhdfk 73 shufhqw ri JGS iru Qruzd|1

6 Ghpdqg iru oderxu dw wkh sodqw ohyho

Wklv vhfwlrq vkrzv krz wkh frqfhswv ri jurvv rzv ri mrev dqg zrunhuv duh hpehg0 ghg lq wkh vwdqgdug g|qdplf ghpdqg ixqfwlrq iru oderxu xvhg lq wkh olwhudwxuh1 Vlqfh wkh suhvhqw sdshu irfxvhv rq wkh uhvwuxfwxulqj surfhvv/ dqg hvshfldoo| rq zkhwkhu zh revhuyh fkdqjhv iru doo sodqwv lq d vhfwru ru zkhwkhu wkhuh lv uhdo0 orfdwlrq ehwzhhq sodqwv/ zh vkrz krz phdvxuhv ri ehwzhhq dqg zlwklq sodqw uhdoorfdwlrq duh ghulyhg1 Zh dovr frqvlghu wkh uroh ri h{lw dqg hqwu| ri sodqwv lq wkh uhdoorfdwlrq ri mrev1 Odvwo|/ wkh sodqw ohyho ghpdqg ixqfwlrqv iru jurvv mre dqg zrunhu rzv duh vshflhg iru wkh hfrqrphwulf dqdo|vlv1

614 Wkh uhodwlrqvkls ehwzhhq oderxu ghpdqg dqg jurvv mre dqg zrunhu rzv

Lq rughu wr dujxh iru dqdo|}lqj sodqw0ohyho jurvv kluhv dqg vhsdudwlrqv/ dv zhoo dv mre fuhdwlrq dqg ghvwuxfwlrq/ lw pd| eh xvhixo wr vhh krz wkh prgho ri jurvv mre dqg zrunhu rzv lv hpehgghg lq wkh vwdqgdug g|qdplf oderxu ghpdqg prgho1 Lq rughu wr vhh wkh uhodwlrqvkls/ ohw xv uhfrqvlghu krz wkh qhw hpsor|phqw fkdqjh iru sodqw h dw wlph w iru zrunhu w|sh m/ {uecc|/ l1h1 wkh hpsor|phqw fkdqjh iru w|sh m ri zrunhuv/ lv d uhvxow ri jurvv rzv ri zrunhuv=

{uecc|'Mecc|7ecc| +4, Wkh irfxv ri wkh vwdqgdug g|qdplf oderxu prgho/ qhw fkdqjh ri zrunhuv/

{uecc|/ lv jlyhq dv wkh ohiw0kdqg vlgh ri htxdwlrq 41 Dv vhhq iurp wkh uljkw0kdqg vlgh wkh hpsor|phqw fkdqjh lq shulrgw lv wkh uhvxow ri wkh qxpehu ri kluhv/Mecc|/ dqg vhsdudwlrqv/7ecc|1 Wkh irfxv lq wklv sdshu zloo eh rq erwk wkh qhw fkdqjh ri

(11)

zrunhuv ru mrev dw wkh sodqw ohyho dqg rq wkh jurvv rzv ri zrunhuv ehklqg wkh qhw fkdqjhv/ l1h1 rq kluhv dqg vhsdudwlrqv ri zrunhuv1

Iluvw/ iroorzlqj wkh mre wxuqryhu olwhudwxuh/ wkh ohiw0kdqg vlgh lv uhihuuhg wr dv qhw mre fuhdwlrq iru d sodqw/ aecc|1 I ru d sodqw h iru zrunhu fdwhjru| m/ zh kdyh mre fuhdwlrq aecc| li aecc| lv srvlwlyh/ zkloh d qhjdwlyh rz lv ghqrwhg mre ghvwuxfwlrqa(ecc|1 Frqvhtxhqwo|/ irfxvvlqj rq wkh jurvv rzv ri mrev dw wkh sodqw ohyho phdqv wkdw zh duh glvwlqjxlvklqj ehwzhhq sodqwv wkdw duh= h{sdqglqj lq mrev/ hlwkhu lq jhqhudo ru lq d sduwlfxodu zrunhu fdwhjru|/ uhgxflqj lq vl}h/

ru uhpdlqlqj vwdeoh1 Wkxv/ wklv edvlfdoo| lpsolhv dqdo|}lqj d g|qdplf ghpdqg ixqfwlrq dw wkh sodqw ohyho/ exw glvwlqjxlvklqj ehwzhhq sodqwv wkdw duh h{sdqglqj/

{uecc| :f ru ghfuhdvlqj lq vl}h iru d sduwlfxodu w|sh ri zrunhuv/{uecc| f1 E|

dvvhvvlqj mrev wkdw duh ghvwur|hg/ iru lqvwdqfh iru orz vnloohg zrunhuv/ dqg mrev wkdw duh fuhdwhg iru kljk vnloohg zrunhuv/ erwk dv d frqvhtxhqfh ri lqfuhdvhg wudgh dqg whfkqrorjlfdo fkdqjh/ zh rewdlq d pxfk eurdghu slfwxuh ri wkh fkdqjhv wdnlqj sodfh1 Vrph sodqwv h{sdqg dqg rwkhuv frqwudfw lq wkh vfdoh ri glhuhqw zrunhu w|shv/ dqg vlqfh zh duh deoh wr olqn wkhvh fkdqjhv wr fkdqjhv lq wkh wudgh sdwwhuq dw wkh vhfwru ohyho/ dqg wr lqglfhv ri whfkqrorjlfdo fkdqjh dw wkh sodqw ohyho/ zh dovr rewdlq d pxfk pruh ghwdlohg slfwxuh ri sodqw khwhurjhqhlw|1 Iru lqvwdqfh/ zh duh deoh wr glvwlqjxlvk ehwzhhq k|srwkhvhv vxfk dv= lqfuhdvhg lpsruw frpshwlwlrq ohdgv wr glvsodfhphqw ri orz vnloohg zrunhuv/ ru qhz mrev duh qrw fuhdwhg iru orz vnloohg zrunhuv lq sodqwv klw e| wrxjkhu frpshwlwlrq iurp deurdg1 Dowkrxjk lw pd| qrw eh reylrxv iurp dqdo|}lqj qhw fkdqjhv/ dv wkhuh lv qr glvwlqfwlrq ehwzhhq mre fuhdwlrq dqg mre ghvwuxfwlrq/ wkhvh wzr rxwfrphv ri wudgh kdyh ydvwo|

glhuhqw srolf| lpsolfdwlrqv1 Vlplodu k|srwkhvhv h{lvw iru wkh hhfw ri vnloo0eldvhg whfkqrorjlfdo fkdqjh1 Wklv lv/ lq idfw/ rqh ri wkh glvwlqjxlvklqj ihdwxuhv ri wkh suhvhqw sdshu dv frpsduhg wr wkh vwdqgdug vnloo0eldvhg whfkqrorjlfdo fkdqjh2wudgh olwhudwxuh +vhh Fkhqqhov dqg Uhhqhq +4<<<, iru dq ryhuylhz ri wkh olwhudwxuh,1 Zh zloo dovr frqvlghu wkh frpelqdwlrq ri mre fuhdwlrq dqg mre ghvwuxfwlrq/ l1h1 qhw mre fuhdwlrq/ lq rughu wr dvvhvv wkh frpelqhg ru qhw hhfw ri sodqwv h{sdqglqj dqg uhgxflqj wrwdo hpsor|phqw ru hpsor|phqw iru fhuwdlq zrunhu jurxsv1

Vhfrqgo|/ wkh frpsrvlwlrq ri wkh zrun irufh lq d sodqw pd| dovr eh fkdqjhg e| uhsodflqj rqh w|sh ri zrunhuv zlwk dqrwkhu zlwkrxw fkdqjlqj wkh vfdoh ri wkh sodqw ru wkh qxpehu ri mrev1 Wklv zloo eh wkh rwkhu dvshfw ri jurvv fkdqjhv dw wkh sodqw ohyho= fkdqjhv ri wkh frpsrvlwlrq ri zrunhuv dw wkh sodqw ohyho jlyhq wkh qxpehu ri mrev1 Vhsdudwlrqv lqfoxgh erwk yroxqwdu| txlwv dqg ulqjv/ dqg kluhv lqfoxgh erwk uhsodflqj vhsdudwhg zrunhuv dqg klulqj qhz zrunhuv lq rughu wr h{sdqg1 Qrwh wkdw wkhuh pd| eh kluhv dqg vhsdudwlrqv hyhq li wkh qhw mre fkdqjh lv }hur/ l1h1/ {uecc| ' f1 Dv frpsduhg wr wkh g|qdplf oderxu ghpdqg prgho/ hvwlpdwlqj kluhv dqg vhsdudwlrq ixqfwlrqv lv wr hvwlpdwh g|qdplf ghpdqg ixqfwlrqv iru sodqwv zlwk srvlwlyh kluhv/ dqg vhsdudwho| iurp sodqwv zlwk srvlwlyh vhsdudwlrqv1

Kluh dqg vhsdudwlrq ixqfwlrqv dw wkh sodqw ohyho duh glhuhqw iurp mre fuh0 dwlrq dqg mre ghvwuxfwlrq ixqfwlrqv dw wkh sodqw ohyho/ vlqfh kluhv lqfoxghv doo

(12)

kluhg zrunhuv/ lqfoxglqj wkrvh uhsodflqj rwkhu zrunhuv/ dqg vhsdudwlrqv lqfoxghv zrunhuv vhsdudwlqj exw ehlqj uhsodfhg1 Wklv pd| eh vhhq iurp wkh iroorzlqj ghfrpsrvlwlrq ri htxdwlrq 4=

{uecc|'Mecc|7ecc|'aecc|n-ecc|

a(ecc|n7ecc|-

+5, Wrwdo kluhv/Mecc|/ fdq eh ghfrpsrvhg lqwr fuhdwlrq ri mrev/aecc|cdqg uhkluhv/

-ecc|c ri zrunhuv gxh wr zrunhuv txlwwlqj ru zrunhuv glvsodfhg iru rwkhu uhdvrqv1 Vhsdudwlrqv pd| eh ghfrpsrvhg lqwr ghvwuxfwlrq ri mrev ru sodqwv* uhgxflqj wkh wrwdo vl}h ri wkh sodqw ru rqh zrunhu jurxs/ a(ecc|/ dqg vhsdudwlrqv zklfk duh ehlqj uhsodfhg/7ecc|- 1 Wkh odwhu lv uhihuuhg wr dv fkxuqlqj ru uhsodfhphqw rzv lq wkh olwhudwxuh/ dqg frqvlvwv ri wkh vxp ri kluhv dqg vhsdudwlrqv +htxdo lq htxlole0 ulxp, gxh wr uhsodfhphqw/ -ecc|n7ecc|- 18 Uhsodfhphqw vhsdudwlrqv fdq eh vsolw lqwr txlwv dqg uhv/ exw zh fdqqrw glvwlqjxlvk ehwzhhq wkhvh lq wkh gdwd19

615 Ghfrpsrvlqj mre rzv lq ehwzhhq dqg zlwklq vhfwruv dqg sodqwv

Wkh txhvwlrq ri krz wr phdvxuh wkh uroh ri zlwklq dqg ehwzhhq sodqw uhdoorfdwlrq ri glhuhqw fdwhjrulhv ri zrunhuv lv ylwdo wr rxu dqdo|vlv1 Lq wkh iroorzlqj zh zloo vkrz krz wkhvh hqwlwlhv pd| eh uhwulhyhg1 Wkh uroh ri h{lw dqg hqwu| ri sodqwv lq wkh uhdoorfdwlrq ri zrunhuv zloo dovr eh vkrzq1 Krzhyhu/ uvw zh ghqh wkh phdvxuhv ri mre dqg zrunhu uhdoorfdwlrq iru glhuhqw hgxfdwlrq fdwhjrulhv dw wkh vhfwru ohyho1

Lq rughu wr dvvhvv wkh mre fuhdwlrq dqg ghvwuxfwlrq udwhv iru vhfwruv/ zh frqyhuw wkh phdvxuhv lqwr udwhv dqg djjuhjdwh ryhu sodqwv1 Wkh djjuhjdwh mre fuhdwlrq udwh iru hgxfdwlrq w|sh Ea-c|/ iurp | wr |/ lv wkh djjuhjdwh lqfuhdvh lq mrev ri hgxfdwlrq w|sh iru sodqwv h{sdqglqj lq hgxfdwlrq w|sh/ glylghg e| wkh ohyho ri mrev ri hgxfdwlrq w|sh 1 Dgrswlqj wkh vwdqgdug hvwdeolvkhg e| Gdylv dqg Kdowlzdqjhu +4<<5,/ zh xvh dv wkh ghqrplqdwru wkh dyhudjh ri wkh suhvhqw dqg suhylrxv vl}h ri hgxfdwlrq w|sh 1 Wkh dgydqwdjh ri wklv phdvxuh lv wkdw lw lqfrusrudwhv h{lw dqg hqwu| udwhv lq d qdwxudo zd|1 Wkh mre ghvwuxfwlrq udwh Ea(-c|lv wkhq ghqhg lq d vlplodu zd| e| wkh djjuhjdwh uhgxfwlrq ri hgxfdwlrq w|sh iurp wlph |wr |/ dqg xvlqj wkh phdq ri wkh suhvhqw dqg suhylrxv vl}h ri hgxfdwlrq w|sh dv wkh ghqrplqdwru1 Mre fuhdwlrq fdq eh gxh wr erwk qhz hqwu| E.A -t c | dqg wr h{sdqvlrq EU-c| ri hvwdeolvkhg sodqwv/ dqg mre

8L iroorz wkh olwhudwxuh khuh dqg dvvxph qr ydfdqflhv/ zklfk lpsolhv wkdw uhsodfhphqw kluhv/

Uh>m>w/ dqg uhsodfhphqw vhsdudwlrqv/Vh>m>wU / duh htxdo lq htxloleulxp1

9Krzhyhu/ e| xvlqj d exvlqhvv0f|foh lqglfdwru wr lghqwli| zkhwkhu uhsodfhphqw vhsdudwlrqv kdyh d sur0 ru frxqwhu0f|folfdo sdwwhuq/ lw kdv ehhq vkrzq wkdw prvw ri wkhvh fkdqjhv duh sur0 f|folfdo/ zklfk lv d vwurqj lqgfdwlrq wkdw prvw ri wkh fkdqjhv duh txlwv1 Wklv lv dovr vxssruwhg e| vwxglhv iurp rwkhu frxqwulhv/ h1j1 Kdphuphvk/ Kdvvlqn dqg ydq Rxuv +4<<9,1

(13)

ghvwuxfwlrq fdq eh gxh wr h{lwE.fUAc|dqg uhgxfwlrqE(.-c|lq frqwlqxlqj sodqwv1 Zh fdq wkhuhiruh ghwhuplqh zkhwkhu uhvwuxfwxulqj lv pdlqo| wkh uhvxow ri hqwu|2h{lw ru ri hvwdeolvkhg sodqwv fkdqjlqj wkhlu surgxfwlrq olqhv1 Wkh wrwdo mre uhdoorfdwlrq udwhEa--c|lv wkh vxp ri mre fuhdwlrq dqg mre ghvwuxfwlrq/ dqg qhw mre fuhdwlrq fkdqjhEa-c|lv wkh glhuhqfh ehwzhhq wkh mre fuhdwlrq udwh dqg wkh mre ghvwuxfwlrq udwh1 Wkh iroorzlqj udwhv iru mre fuhdwlrq +hqwu|/ lqfuhphqw iru hvwdeolvkhg sodqwv,/ dqg mre ghvwuxfwlrq +h{lw/ ghfolqlqj, iru vnloo w|sh m/ pd|

wkxv eh ghqhg dv=

.A -tc| ' 2 uc|3nuc|

[

e*M.c|3

eM.c|

uec| +6,

U-c| ' 2 uc|3nuc|

[

eM.ecc|3c.ecc|

_uecc|Df

muecc|uecc|3m .fUAc| ' 2

uc|3nuc|

[

eM.c|3

e*M.c|

uec|3

(.-c| ' 2 uc|3nuc|

[

eM.ecc|3c.ecc|

_uecc|$f

muecc|uecc|3m

uhvshfwlyho|/ zkhuh.ecc| lv wkh vhw ri hvwdeolvkphqwv zlwk hpsor|phqw ri vnloo w|shS m lq |hdu w/ dqg uc| lv wkh wrwdo hpsor|phqw ri w|sh m/ ghqhg e|= uc| '

eM.c|

uecc|1 Wkh jurvv mre fuhdwlrq dqg jurvv mre ghvwuxfwlrq udwhv ri lqgxvwu| l lq |hduw iru zrunhu w|sh m duh jlyhq e|=

a-c| 'U-c|n.A -tc| dqg a(-c| '(.-c|n.fUAc| +7, uhvshfwlyho|1 Wkh qhw mre fuhdwlrq udwh dqg mre uhdoorfdwlrq udwh duh jlyhq e|=

a-c| 'a-c|a(-c| dqga--c| 'a-c|na(-c| +8, Lq dgglwlrq wr wkh wrwdo mre uhdoorfdwlrq udwhv iru hdfk hgxfdwlrq fdwhjru|/ zh duh lqwhuhvwhg lq krz wkh uhvwuxfwxulqj surfhvv wdnhv sodfh dqg hvshfldoo| zkhwkhu wkh fkdqjh lq vnloo frpsrvlwlrq lv wdnlqj sodfh iru doo sodqwv lq hdfk vhfwru ru zkhwkhu uhdoorfdwlrq ri mrev lv dfurvv hvwdeolvkphqwv1 Phdvxuhv ri ehwzhhq dqg zlwklq sodqw uhdoorfdwlrq pd| eh uhwulhyhg e| ghulylqj wkh ehwzhhq sodqw mre uhdoorfdwlrq phdvxuh dqg wkh wrwdo mre uhdoorfdwlrq phdvxuh1 Wkh ehwzhhq sodqw uhdoorfdwlrq udwh lv wkh vwdqgdug mre uhdoorfdwlrq iru doo zrunhu fdwhjrulhv wdnhq wrjhwkhu=

a--|'a-|na(-| +9,

(14)

Zhljkwlqj wkh mre fuhdwlrq dqg mre ghvwuxfwlrq udwhv iru hdfk hgxfdwlrq w|sh e| wkh vkduh ri vnloo w|shv/ wkh wrwdo mre uhdoorfdwlrq phdvxuh iru erwk zlwklq dqg ehwzhhq sodqwv fdq eh frqvwuxfwhg=

A a--| ' u,c|

u| Ea-,c|na(-,c|

nu6c|

u| Ea-6c|na(-6c|uc|

u| Ea-c|na(-c| +:, zkhuh,c 6c duh lqglfhv iru orz/ phglxp dqg kljko| hgxfdwhg zrunhuv zh xvh lq wkh sdshu1 Wkh zlwklq sodqw mre uhdoorfdwlrq phdvxuh lv wkhq wkh glhuhqfh ehwzhhq wrwdo mre uhdoorfdwlrq dqg wkh ehwzhhq mre uhdoorfdwlrq phdvxuh=

` a--|'A a--|a--| +;, Qrwh wkdw wkh mre uhdoorfdwlrq udwhv iru hdfk hgxfdwlrq jurxs pd| eh kljkhu wkdq wkh mre uhdoorfdwlrq udwhv dw wkh sodqw ohyho iru doo vnloov wdnhq wrjhwkhu1 Wkh uhdvrq lv/ ri frxuvh/ wkdw lw pd| zhoo eh wkdw fkdqjhv lq vnloo pl{ zlwklq sodqwv pd| wdnh sodfh/ h1j1 iurp orz wr kljk vnloov/ zlwkrxw fkdqjlqj wkh vl}h ri wkh sodqwv1

616 Hfrqrphwulf vshflfdwlrq ri sodqw ohyho g|qdplf gh0 pdqg ixqfwlrqv

Lq rughu wr dvvhvv wkh hhfw ri whfkqrorjlfdo fkdqjh dqg wudgh rq wkh ghpdqg iru glhuhqw vnloo ohyhov ri zrunhuv/ zh zloo vshfli| sodqw0ohyho g|qdplf ghpdqg ixqfwlrqv iru jurvv mre fkdqjhv dqg jurvv zrunhu fkdqjhv dv ghvfulehg lq Vhfwlrq 514 iru wkuhh vnloo fdwhjrulhv1

Wkh vwduwlqj srlqw lv wkdw d sodqw kdv d surgxfwlrq ixqfwlrq zlwk lqsxw lq wkuhh oderxu fdwhjrulhv/ zlwk qrq0oderxu lqsxw dqg zlwk fdslwdo frpelqhg lqwr ydoxh dgghg rxwsxw vhsdudeoh iurp rwkhu pdwhuldo lqsxw1 Idflqj h{rjhqrxv sulfhv lq wkh lqsxw pdunhwv/ wkh sodqw plqlpl}hv wkh frvw ri surgxflqj d sodqqhg ohyho ri ydoxh dgghg rxwsxw hdfk |hdu1 Dsso|lqj Vkhsdug*v ohppd zh fdq wkhq ghulyh wkh frqglwlrqdo ghpdqg ixqfwlrqv iru hdfk oderxu lqsxw h{suhvvhg dv d ixqfwlrq ri zdjhv dqg sodqqhg rxwsxw/ dqg h{sdqghg zlwk idfwruv vxfk dv sur{lhv iru whfkqrorj| dqg wudgh1 Lq rxu fdvh zh vshfli| g|qdplf ghpdqg ixqfwlrqv dqg ghqh yduldeohv lq fkdqjhv/ vlqfh zh frqvlghu jurvv fkdqjhv ri mrev dqg zrunhuv/

fi1 Kdphuphvk +4<<8,1 Ixuwkhu/ zh dvvxph wkdw wkhuh duh wzr w|shv ri sodqwv vlqfh zh frqvlghu jurvv fkdqjhv1 Dqg iroorzlqj Kdphuphvk +4<<8,/ d sodqw hlwkhu fuhdwhv mrev iru d sduwlfxodu zrunhu fdwhjru| +ru kluhv zrunhuv ri wkdw fdwhjru|, ru lw ghvwur|v mrev iru d sduwlfxodu zrunhu fdwhjru| +ru vhsdudwhv zrunhuv ri wkdw fdwhjru|,1 Wkh iroorzlqj sodqw0ohyho hfrqrphwulf vshflfdwlrq iru sodqw h iru

(15)

jurvv mre fuhdwlrq dqg mre ghvwuxfwlrq dqg iru jurvv kluhv dqg vhsdudwlrqv lv wkhq xvhg iru wkuhh oderxu fdwhjrulhv khuh zh suhvhqw rqo| iru mre fkdqjhv/ dqg qrw kluhv dqg vhsdudwlrqv iru sodqwv h{sdqglqj lq vl}h iru rqh ri wkh wkuhh zrunhu fdwhjrulhv/ l1h1 iru a-,ec| f/ rua-ec|6 f rua-ec| f/ uhvshfwlyho|1

a-,ec| 'k[

{ecc|nq{^ec|nAec|nB{A -rc|nbUrc|S n0ec|

a-6ec| 'k[

{ecc|nq{^ec|nAec|nB{A -rc|nbUrc|S n0ec| +<, a-ec| 'k[

{ecc|nq{^ec|nAec|nB{A -rc|nbUrc|S n0ec|

Vlploduo|/ wkh vshflfdwlrq iru sodqwv uhgxflqj lq vl}h lq rqh ri wkh wkuhh fdwhjrulhv lv/ l1h1/ irua(-,ec| f/ru a(-6ec|f rua(-ec| f/ uhvshfwlyho|=

a(-ec|, 'k[

{ecc|nq{^ec|nAec|nB{A -rc|nbUrc|S n0ec|

a(-ec|6 'k[

{ecc|nq{^ec|nAec|nB{A -rc|nbUrc|S n0ec| +43, a(-ec| 'k[

{ecc|nq{^ec|nAec|nB{A -rc|nbUrc|S n0ec|

Lq wkh vshflfdwlrq zh kdyh ghqhg wkuhh jurvv mre fuhdwlrq dqg wkuhh mre ghvwuxfwlrq ixqfwlrqv iru wkuhh fdwhjrulhv ri zrunhuv1 Wkh zrunhu jurxsv duh ghqhg e| wkh jhqhudo hgxfdwlrq ohyho +orz@xs wr whq |hduv/phglxp@ehwzhhq 43 dqg 47 |hduv/ dqgkljk@48 |hduv dqg pruh,1 {ecc|lv wkh fkdqjh lq zdjh iru hdfk zrunhu fdwhjru| iru hdfk sodqw1 {^ec| lv wkh fkdqjh lq ydoxh dgghg iru hdfk sodqw i1 Urc|S lv d exvlqhvv f|foh lqglfdwru vshflhg lq rughu wr frqwuro iru exvlqhvv f|foh fkdqjhv/ vlqfh wkh irfxv lq wklv sdshu lv sulpdulo| rq vwuxfwxudo fkdqjhv iurp wudgh dqg whfkqrorjlfdo fkdqjh dqg qrw rq exvlqhvv f|foh xfwxdwlrqv lq wkh ghpdqg iru oderxu1 0ec| lv wkh vwdqgdug huuru whup1 Dv lv vwdqgdug lq wkh mre rz olwhudwxuh/

wkh pdqxidfwxulqj zlgh qhw mre fuhdwlrq udwh zdv xvhg dv dq lqglfdwru iru wkh exvlqhvv f|foh1 Aec| lv d yduldeoh frqvlvwlqj ri wzr glhuhqw lqglfdwru yduldeohv iru whfkqrorjlfdo fkdqjh1 Iluvw zh whvw d jhqhudo phdvxuh/ zklfk lv d 60gljlw lqgxvwu|

ohyho fodvvlfdwlrq/ lqwr kljk0/ phglxp0 dqg orz0whfk lqgxvwulhv edvhg rq U)G h{shqglwxuh1 Wkh U)G phdvxuh ghqhv wkuhh gljlw lqgxvwulhv dv orz0/ phglxp0 dqg kljk0whfk lqgxvwulhv dqg wkxv wzr lqglfdwru yduldeohv duh ghqhg zlwk orz0whfk vhfwruv dv wkh uhihuhqfh fdwhjru| +Vhh wkh Dsshqgl{ iru ghqlwlrqv,1 Dowhuqdwlyho|/

zh xvh d pruh lqwhuhvwlqj sodqw ohyho phdvxuh ri wkh pdfklqh fdslwdo ylqwdjh1 Wklv phdvxuh lv gxh wr Pdluhvvh +4<:;,/ dqg lv frqvwuxfwhg xvlqj lqyhvwphqw gdwd lq pdfklqh fdslwdo1 Wkh dujxphqw iru xvlqj wklv yduldeoh/ lv wkdw wkurxjk lqyhvwphqwv rog sodqwv pd| dftxluh wkh prvw uhfhqw whfkqrorjlhv dqg wkdw qhz whfkqrorj| lv hperglhg lq wkh odwhvw ylqwdjhv ri fdslwdo1 Wkxv qhz fdslwdo lv

(16)

ehwwhu ru pruh surgxfwlyh wkdq rog fdslwdo qrw rqo| ehfdxvh ri zhdu dqg whdu exw ehfdxvh qhz fdslwdo lv pruh surgxfwlyh wkdq wkh rog fdslwdo hyhq zkhq wkh rog fdslwdo zdv qhz +Mrkdqvhq +4<8<,/ Mrkdqvhq +4<:5,> Vrorz +4<89,/ Vrorz +4<93,,1 Vlqfh zh zdqw wr hvwlpdwh wkh hhfw ri wkh ylqwdjh ri fdslwdo lvrodwhg iurp wkh hhfw ri wkh djh ri wkh sodqw/ zh lqwurgxfh wkh djh ri wkh sodqw dovr lq wklv htxdwlrq1 Vr idu/ prvw vwxglhv ri vnloo0eldvhg whfkqrorjlfdo fkdqjh kdyh xvhg lqgxvwu|0ohyho gdwd1 Wkxv/ d ghwdlohg lqglfdwru ri wkh ylqwdjh ri wkh fdslwdo dw wkh sodqw ohyho lv dovr d qryho ihdwxuh ri wklv vwxg|1 {A -rc| lv d 5 glphqvlrqdo yhfwru lqfoxglqj wkh 80gljlw lpsruw shqhwudwlqj udwlr dqg wkh h{sruw shqhwudwlrq udwlr1 Wkh yduldeohv duh ghqhg lq wkh Dsshqgl{1: Vlqfh prvw ri wkh uhfhqw olwhudwxuh vkrzv wkdw wkh zlwklq lqgxvwu| frpsrqhqw ri dgmxvwphqw lv yhu| lpsruwdqw/ zh dovr hvwlpdwh vshflfdwlrqv zkhuh zh lqfoxgh lqgxvwu| {hg hhfwv +60gljlw ohyho,1 Zlwk lqgxvwu| {hg hhfwv/ wkh uhvxowv duh wr eh lqwhusuhwhg dv fkdqjhv ryhu wlph lq mre fuhdwlrq dqg ghvwuxfwlrq zlwklq dq lqgxvwu|1 Lq rughu wr frqwuro iru rwkhu idfwruv wkdw pd| h{sodlq d uhodwlrqvkls ehwzhhq wudgh dqg2ru whfkqrorjlfdo fkdqjh/ zh dovr hvwlpdwh vshflfdwlrqv zkhuh zh lqfoxgh rwkhu sodqw dqg vhfwru vshflf yduldeohv lq rughu wr fkhfn wkh urexvwqhvv ri rxu uhvxowv1 Wkh yduldeoh lv d s0glphqvlrqdo yhfwru ri sodqw dqg lqgxvwu| vshflf yduldeohv hqfrpsdvvlqj wkhvh frqwuro yduldeohv1

Wkh olqn ehwzhhq lpsruw frpshwlwlrq dqg hpsor|phqw uhdoorfdwlrq lv uhod0 wlyho| vwudljkwiruzdug1 D fkdqjh lq lpsruw frpshwlwlrq vkliwlqj lqgxvwu| surgxfw ghpdqg zloo whqg wr vkliw hpsor|phqw lq wkh vdph gluhfwlrq1 Fkdqjhv lq h{sruw frpshwlwlrq zrun lq wkh vdph zd|1 Wkh pdjqlwxgh ri wkh hpsor|phqw hhfw zloo ghshqg rq wkh qdwxuh ri wkh oderxu pdunhw dqg wkh fkdudfwhulvwlfv ri wkh zdjh vhwwlqj1 Lq d v|vwhp zlwk yhu| h{leoh zdjh vhwwlqj/ zdjh dgmxvwphqw lv h{shfwhg wr gdpshq wkh hpsor|phqw hhfw1 Dv vkrzq lq wkh suhylrxv vhfwlrq wkhuh kdv ehhq olwwoh fkdqjh hlwkhu lq wkh zdjh glvwulexwlrq lq jhqhudo ru lq wkh uhodwlyh zdjhv iru wkh jurxsv ri zrunhuv zh duh dqdo|}lqj1 Lw kdv ehhq dujxhg wkdw wklv kdv ehhq gxh wr d fhqwudol}hg v|vwhp ri zdjh edujdlqlqj lq zklfk wkh eldqqxdo qhjrwldwlrqv dffrxqw iru 73 wr 93 shufhqw ri wkh zdjh fkdqjh1 E| h{sorlwlqj wklv sduwlfxodu ihdwxuh ri wkh Qruzhjldq lqvwlwxwlrqdo vhwwlqj zh vkrxog dfwxdoo| eh deoh wr lghqwli| wudgh hhfwv rq hpsor|phqw li wkh| duh lpsruwdqw1

Lq dgglwlrq wr wkh jhqhudo uhdoorfdwlrq ri oderxu uhvxowlqj iurp fkdqjhv lq lpsruw dqg h{sruw frpshwlwlrq/ glhuhqw hhfwv duh h{shfwhg iru glhuhqw vnloo ohyhov ri zrunhuv li glhuhqw vnloo ohyhov duh lpshuihfw vxevwlwxwhv1 Rqh ri wkh dgydqwdjhv ri wkh suhvhqw vwxg| lv wkdw zh fdq lghqwli| zkhwkhu fkdqjhv lq wkh frpsrvlwlrq duh wkh uhvxow ri mrev ehlqj ghvwur|hg ru zrunhuv ehlqj glvsodfhg iru wkh glhuhqw vnloo jurxsv iroorzlqj lpsruw frpshwlwlrq/ ru zkhwkhu mrev duh ehlqj

:Iru d glvfxvvlrq ri wkh xvh ri txdqwlw| phdvxuhv ri wudgh dv rssrvhg wr sulfh phdvxuhv xqghu glhuhqw dvvxpswlrqv ri pdunhw vwuxfwxuh/ fi1 Nohw}hu +4<<;,1 Lw vkrxog dovr eh srlqwhg rxw wkdw xvlqj txdqwlw| phdvxuhv ri wudgh grhv qrw fdswxuh wkuhdw ri wudgh frqwdlqhg lq vrph wkhruhwlfdo dssurdfkhv olqnlqj wkh zruvhqlqj oderxu pdunhw srvlwlrqv ri wkh ohvv vnloohg wr wudgh1

(17)

fuhdwhg lq wkh vhfwruv zlwk srvlwlyh h{sruw frqglwlrqv1 Dowkrxjk zh zrxog h{shfw uhdoorfdwlrq iru doo fdwhjrulhv ri zrunhuv/ zh zrxog/ lq sduwlfxodu/ h{shfw jurvv mre ghvwuxfwlrq iru orz hgxfdwhg zrunhuv iroorzlqj lqfuhdvhg lpsruw frpshwlwlrq1 Zh zrxog qrw/ krzhyhu/ qhfhvvdulo| h{shfw uhgxfhg mre fuhdwlrq iru orz0vnloohg zrunhuv lq vhfwruv klw e| d qhjdwlyh wudgh vkrfn1 Iru kljko| hgxfdwhg zrunhuv wkh hhfw pd| eh rssrvlwh> wkh| pd| eh uhodwlyho| lqvxodwhg iurp qhjdwlyh wudgh vkrfnv/ exw qhz mre rshqlqjv lq vhfwruv zlwk srvlwlyh wudgh vkrfnv pd| dwwudfw kljko| hgxfdwhg qhzfrphuv lq wkh oderxu pdunhw1

Wkh hhfw ri whfkqrorjlfdo fkdqjh dv dq h{sodqdwru| idfwru iru wkh fkdqjh lq wkh vnloo frpsrvlwlrq lv d vwurqjhu lqfuhdvh lq qhw mre fuhdwlrq iru kljko| hgx0 fdwhg zrunhuv dv frpsduhg wr orz0vnloohg zrunhuv1 Wklv iroorzv dv wkh vnloo0eldvhg whfkqlfdo fkdqjh lpsolhv d frpsohphqwdulw| uhodwlrqvkls ehwzhhq whfkqrorj| dqg vnloohg zrunhuv1 Krzhyhu/ vlqfh sodqwv wkdw duh lqyhvwlqj lq qhz whfkqrorj| pd|

dovr h{sdqg surgxfwlrq lq jhqhudo/ wkh| pd| ghpdqg pruh zrunhuv ri doo fdw0 hjrulhv lq dgglwlrq wr fkdqjlqj wkh frpsrvlwlrq ri wkh zrun irufh1 Ehklqg wkh qhw mre fuhdwlrq sdwwhuq zh h{shfw wr qg vwurqj srvlwlyh jurvv mre fuhdwlrq iru kljko| dqg srvvleo| phglxp0hgxfdwhg zrunhuv1 Rqh k|srwkhvlv pd| dovr eh wkdw zrunhuv zlwk orz hgxfdwlrq duh ehlqj glvsodfhg iurp sodqwv zlwk qhz whfkqro0 rj|1 Wkh dowhuqdwlyh khuh lv wkdw wkh lpsdfw iurp vnloo0eldvhg whfkqlfdo fkdqjh lv rqo| yld wkh mre fuhdwlrq pdujlq dqg qrw wkh mre ghvwuxfwlrq pdujlq> orz vnloohg zrunhuv duh qrw glvsodfhg iurp sodqwv lqyhvwlqj lq qhz whfkqrorj|> wkh| duh mxvw uhdoorfdwhg iurp sodqwv zlwk rog whfkqrorj| wr sodqwv lqyhvwlqj lq qhz whfkqrorj|1

7 Fkdqjhv lq wkh vnloo frpsrvlwlrq lq wkh Qru0 zhjldq pdqxidfwxulqj dqg qdqfldo vhfwru1

Wkh sxusrvh ri wklv vhfwlrq lv wr grfxphqw wkh fkdqjh wkdw kdv wdnhq sodfh lq wkh vnloo frpsrvlwlrq ri wkh Qruzhjldq hfrqrp| dqg wr ghprqvwudwh wkdw lw lv dw wkh vdph ohyho ri pdjqlwxgh dv iru rwkhu RHFG frxqwulhv1 Iluvw/ zh suhvhqw uhvxowv xvlqj wkh vwdqgdug ghfrpsrvlwlrq lq ehwzhhq dqg zlwklq vhfwruv wr rewdlq d uvw lpsuhvvlrq ri wkh w|sh ri fkdqjhv wdnlqj sodfh dqg wr frpsduh zlwk rwkhu vwxglhv1 Wkhq zh gr d pruh ghwdlohg dqdo|vlv ri jurvv rzv ri mrev dqg zrunhuv iru wkuhh hgxfdwlrq fdwhjrulhv1 Zh dovr frpsduh wkh fkdqjhv lq wkh pdqxidfwxulqj vhfwru zlwk wkh fkdqjhv lq wkh qdqfldo vhfwru1 Wkhq zh vkrz wkdw wkhvh fkdqjhv uhsuhvhqw d shupdqhqw vwuxfwxudo fkdqjh dqg qrw rqo| exvlqhvv f|foh xfwxdwlrqv1;

;Pdqxidfwxulqj lv e| idu wkh odujhvw vhfwru/ frpsulvlqj rq dyhudjh :<3< sodqwv +A8 hp0 sor|hhv, dqg hpsor|lqj derxw 5;3 333 zrunhuv lq wklv shulrg1 Edqnlqj dqg lqvxudqfh lv rqo|

derxw rqh0iwk wkh vl}h lq sodqwv dqg zrunhuv1 Wkh uhodwlyh vkduhv ri glhuhqw vnloo jurxsv dovr glhu ehwzhhq wkh wzr vhfwruv1 Wkh orz vnloo vkduh lv/ rq dyhudjh/ 8: shufhqw lq pdqxidfwxulqj /zkhuhdv lw lv rqo| 5; shufhqw lq edqnlqj dqg lqvxudqfh1 Wkxv/ edqnlqj dqg lqvxudqfh lv d pruh kxpdq fdslwdo0lqwhqvlyh vhfwru zlwk d vkduh ri 94 shufhqw iru phglxp0vnloohg dqg 44 shufhqw iru kljk0vnloohg1 Ryhu wkh shulrg wkhuh lv d ghfolqh erwk lq pdqxidfwxulqj dqg edqnlqj dqg

(18)

714 Ghfrpsrvlwlrq ri fkdqjhv lq wkh sursruwlrq ri kljk0/

phglxp0 dqg orz0hgxfdwhg zrunhuv1

Dv vhhq iurp Wdeoh 4/ wkh ryhudoo uhgxfwlrq lq wkh hpsor|phqw vkduh iru orz0 hgxfdwhg zrunhuv lq pdqxidfwxulqj lv derxw 45 shufhqw1 Wklv uhgxfwlrq lv pdwfkhg zlwk d vwurqj lqfuhdvh lq wkh hpsor|phqw vkduh ri phglxp0hgxfdwhg zrunhuv dprxqwlqj wr 43 shufhqw ryhu wkh shulrg1 Wkh lqfuhdvh lq kljk vnloohg kdv ehhq derxw wzr shufhqw1 Wkh fkdqjh lq wkh qdqfldo vhfwru lv vlplodu exw ohvv gudpdwlf 0 vwduwlqj iurp d pxfk kljkhu kxpdq fdslwdo ohyho dv phdvxuhg e| |hduv ri hgx0 fdwlrq1 Wkh vkduh ri orz0hgxfdwhg zrunhuv ghfuhdvhg e| derxw vl{ shufhqw dqg wkh vkduh ri kljk0hgxfdwhg zrunhuv e| 714 shufhqw1 Lw lv lpsruwdqw wr qrwh wkdw wkhvh jxuhv iru wkh fkdqjh lq wkh zrun irufh frpsrvlwlrq duh dw wkh vdph rughu ri pdjqlwxgh dv wkrvh iru rwkhu frxqwulhv1 Wkxv Qruzd| ghprqvwudwhv wkh vdph sdwwhuq dv wkh| gr1

Wdeoh 4 khuh1

Ghfrpsrvlqj fkdqjhv lq vnloo sursruwlrqv lqwr zlwklq dqg ehwzhhq vhfwruv vkrzv wkdw prvw ri wkh fkdqjh wrrn sodfh zlwklq vhfwruv dw d irxu0gljlw ohyho +LVLF,/ erwk lq pdqxidfwxulqj dqg lq wkh qdqfldo vhfwru1< Wkh iroorzlqj vwdq0 gdug ghfrpsrvlwlrq irupxod zdv xvhg= wkh djjuhjdwh fkdqjh lq vnloo sursruwlrq ryhu wkh wlph shulrg/ {/ fdq eh ghfrpsrvhg dv iroorzv= { ' S

{77 n S{77c zkhuh l@4/ /q lv wkh qxpehu ri lqgxvwulhv/ lv wkh vkduh ri vnloo w|sh m lq lqgxvwu| l/ 7 lv wkh hpsor|phqw vkduh lq lqgxvwu| l/ dqg d edu deryh wkh yduldeoh ghqrwhv wkh wlph phdq1 Dv fdq eh vhhq iurp wkh odvw froxpqv lq Wdeoh 4/ derxw <3 shufhqw ri wkh fkdqjh lv gxh wr fkdqjhv zlwklq vhfwruv1 Wklv lv lqgluhfw hylghqfh ri vnloo0eldvhg whfkqlfdo fkdqjh dqg wkhuhiruh vxssruwv wkh qg0 lqjv ri suhylrxv zrun/ fi1 Ehupdq hw do1 +4<<7,/ Pdfklq +4<<8,/ Kdqvvrq +4<<9,/

Ehupdq/ Erxqg dqg Pdfklq +4<<;, dqg Kdvnho +4<<9,1 Jlyhq wkh lpsruwdqfh ri lqwud0vhfwru fkdqjhv zh zloo qrz dvvhvv zkdw lv ehklqg wkhvh qhw fkdqjhv lq wkh zrun irufh frpsrvlwlrq ryhu wlph lq Qruzd| e| h{sorlwlqj wkh pdwfkhg gdwd vhw1

715 Wkh sdwwhuq lq mre fuhdwlrq dqg ghvwuxfwlrq lq Qru0 zhjldq pdqxidfwxulqj dqg qdqfldo vhfwru

Zkhq frpsdulqj wkh phdq ri wkh dqqxdo udwhv ri mre fuhdwlrq dqg ghvwuxfwlrq iru hgxfdwlrq jurxsv lq pdqxidfwxulqj/dv vkrzq lq Wdeoh 5/ lw lv fohdu wkdw wkh dyhudjh mre uhdoorfdwlrq udwhv glhu ryhu hgxfdwlrq fdwhjrulhv1 Wkh qhw mre fuh0 dwlrq udwh Ea- iru orz0hgxfdwhg zrunhuv lv qhjdwlyh zlwk d uhgxfwlrq udwh ri irxu shufhqw dqqxdoo|/ zkloh erwk phglxp0 dqg kljko| hgxfdwhg zrunhuv kdyh d srvlwlyh qhw mre fuhdwlrq udwh ri rqh dqg yh shufhqw/ uhvshfwlyho|1 Iru hdfk

lqvxudqfh lq wkh qxpehu ri sodqwv dqg wrwdo hpsor|phqw1

<Wkh qxpehu ri 70gljlw LVLF vhfwruv lq edqnlqj lv olplwhg +rqo| 8, dv frpsduhg wr :8 iru pdqxidfwxulqj/ vr wkh ehwzhhq dqg zlwklq vhfwru vnloo fkdqjh kdv d vrphzkdw glhuhqw lqwhu0 suhwdwlrq1

(19)

orz0hgxfdwhg mre ghvwuxfwhg/ rqo| 319: mrev kdyh ehhq fuhdwhgEa-*a(-1 I ru phglxp0 dqg kljko| hgxfdwhg zrunhuv 413; dqg 4155 mrev kdyh ehhq fuhdwhg iru hdfk mre ghvwur|hg1

Wdeoh 5 khuh1

Dv dq lqglfdwlrq ri wkh lpsruwdqfh ri zrunhu uhdoorfdwlrq ehwzhhq sodqwv/ lq dgglwlrq wr wkh uroh ri mre uhdoorfdwlrq/ wkh wrwdo kluh dqg vhsdudwlrq udwhv duh dovr lqfoxghg lq Wdeoh 51 Wkh qxpehu ri kluhg zrunhuv shu mre fuhdwhg EM-*a- ydulhv ehwzhhq 416 dqg 41< iru wkh glhuhqw hgxfdwlrq fdwhjrulhv/ dqg wkh qxpehu ri vhsdudwhg zrunhuv iru hdfk mre ghvwur|hg ydulhv ehwzhhq 418 dqg 41;1 Wklv lpsolhv wkdw uhdoorfdwlrq yld zrunhu rzv deryh mre uhdoorfdwlrq ehwzhhq sodqwv lv dovr ri ylwdo lpsruwdqfh1 Wkhvh jxuhv duh dovr vlplodu wr wkrvh irxqg lq wkh olwhudwxuh +Exujhvv hw do1 +5333, Doeén dqg Vûuhqvhq +4<<;,/ Kdphuphvk hw do1 +4<<9,,1 Lq vxp/ wkhuh lv d fohdu whqghqf| lq pdqxidfwxulqj/ zklfk lq djjuhjdwh vkrzv d ghfolqlqj hpsor|phqw ohyho ri wkuhh shufhqw lq wklv shulrg1 Wklv whqghqf|

lv wkdw mrev fuhdwhg iru phglxp0 dqg kljko| hgxfdwhg zrunhuv duh lq h{fhvv ri mrev ghvwur|hg/ zkloh mrev fuhdwhg iru zrunhuv zlwk d orz hgxfdwlrq ohyho duh rxwqxpehuhg e| mrev ghvwur|hg1 Khqfh wkhuh lv txlwh d vwurqj vxevwlwxwlrq dzd|

iurp orz0 wr kljko| vnloohg zrunhuv1

D vlplodu slfwxuh hphujhv iru wkh qdqfldo vhfwru1 Frqvlghulqj wkh phdq ri dqqxdo udwhv/ rqo| 31:5 mrev duh fuhdwhg iru hdfk orz0hgxfdwhg mre ghvwur|hg zkloh 4145 mrev duh fuhdwhg iru hdfk kljko| hgxfdwhg mre ghvwur|hg1 Mrev iru orz0hgxfdwhg zrunhuv wkxv ghfuhdvhg dqqxdoo| e| irxu shufhqw/ zkloh mrev iru kljko|0hgxfdwhg zrunhuv lqfuhdvhg dqqxdoo| e| wzr shufhqw1 Rqh lpsruwdqw gli0 ihuhqfh ehwzhhq wkh wzr vhfwruv lv wkdw mrev iru phglxp0hgxfdwhg zrunhuv rq dyhudjh ghfuhdvhg ryhu wkh shulrg frqvlghuhg lq wkh qdqfldo vhfwru/ zkhuhdv wkh qxpehu ri mrev iru wklv jurxs lqfuhdvhg lq wkh pdqxidfwxulqj vhfwru1 Khqfh/ d frpsohphqwdu| uhodwlrqvkls dsshduv wr h{lvw ehwzhhq orz0 dqg phglxp0hgxfdwhg zrunhuv lq edqnlqj dqg lqvxudqfh1 Wkh glhuhqfh ehwzhhq wkh srvlwlyh qhw mre fuhdwlrq udwh iru kljko| hgxfdwhg jurxs dqg wkh qhjdwlyh mre fuhdwlrq udwh iru orz0 hgxfdwhg jurxs lv dovr ohvv lq wkh qdqfldo vhfwru wkdq lq pdqxidfwxulqj1 Wklv lqglfdwhv vrphzkdw ohvv uhvwuxfwxulqj iurp orz0 wr kljko| hgxfdwhg1 Krzhyhu/ wkh hpsor|phqw vkduhv ri kljk0 dqg phglxp0hgxfdwhg duh kljkhu dw wkh rxwvhw lq wkh qdqfldo vhfwru/ dqg d orzhu vxevwlwxwlrq hhfw ehwzhhq kljko| hgxfdwhg dqg orz0 hgxfdwhg lv wkxv h{shfwhg1 Wkh lpsruwdqfh ri zrunhu uhdoorfdwlrq ehwzhhq sodqwv lv dv lpsruwdqw lq wkh qdqfldo vhfwru dv lq wkh pdqxidfwxulqj vhfwru/ lq wkdw 418 kluhv lv wdnlqj sodfh iru hdfk mre fuhdwhg/ dqg ylfh yhuvd iru wkh vhsdudwlrqv wr mrev ghvwur|hg1

E| frqvlghulqj wkh jurvv mre fuhdwlrq dqg mre ghvwuxfwlrq udwhv jlyhq lq Wdeoh 5/ zh duh deoh wr lghqwli| zklfk ri wkh wzr lv wkh gulylqj irufh ehklqg wkh qhw vxevwlwxwlrq hhfw1 Zh qrwlfh wkdw lw lv wkh jurvv mre fuhdwlrq udwhv dqg qrw wkh jurvv mre ghvwuxfwlrq udwhv zklfk h{sodlq wkh qhjdwlyh qhw mre fuhdwlrq udwhv iru orz0vnloohg zrunhuv dqg wkh qhw lqfuhdvh lq mrev iru kljk0vnloohg zrunhuv erwk lq pdqxidfwxulqj dqg lq wkh qdqfldo vhfwru1 Khqfh/ lw lv wkh qhz mrev ehlqj

(20)

hvwdeolvkhg zklfk fdxvh wkh fkdqjh lq vnloo frpsrvlwlrq ehwzhhq sodqwv dqg qrw wkh idfw wkdw mrev iru orz0hgxfdwhg duh glvdsshdulqj dw d kljkhu udwh1 Mrev duh glvdsshdulqj iru doo hgxfdwlrq ohyhov/ dqg lq pdqxidfwxulqj jurvv mre ghvwuxfwlrq lv dfwxdoo| kljkhu iru wkh kljko| hgxfdwhg zrunhuv wkdq iru phglxp0 dqg orz0 hgxfdwhg zrunhuv1

Dv dq dgglwlrqdo dqdo|vlv zh dvvhvv zkhwkhu wklv ehwzhhq sodqw uhdoorfdwlrq ri mrev iru glhuhqw w|shv ri zrunhuv wdnhv sodfh lq sodqwv wkdw duh fkdqjlqj wkh vfdoh ri surgxfwlrq vlpxowdqhrxvo|/ l1h1 grzqvl}lqj ru lqfuhdvlqj lq vl}h1 Zh vsolw wkh gdwd vhw lqwr h{sdqglqj/ frqwudfwlqj dqg vwdeoh sodqwv1 Lq wklv zd|/ zh fdq uhodwh uhvwuxfwxulqj wr ryhudoo fkdqjh lq wkh vl}h ri sodqwv1

Wdeoh 6 khuh1

Lq Wdeoh 6/ zh vhh wkdw wkhuh lv d v|pphwu| lq wkh shufhqwdjh ri sodqwv wkdw duh h{sdqglqj dqg frqwudfwlqj> 7: dqg 79 shufhqw uhvshfwlyho|/ zkloh wkh hpsor|phqw ohyho lv xqfkdqjhg lq vhyhq shufhqw ri wkh sodqwv1 Li zh frqfhqwudwlqj rq wkh qhw mre fuhdwlrq udwhvEa-/ d fohdu whqghqf| lv dssduhqw= h{sdqglqj sodqwv fuhdwh d odujhu ghjuhh ri kljk0vnloo mrev/ zkhuhdv ghfolqlqj sodqwv ghvwur| uhodwlyho| pruh orz0vnloo mrev1 Wkxv/ wkh vwuxfwxudo fkdqjh dv uhsuhvhqwhg e| vnloo vxevwlwxwlrq lv wdnlqj sodfh dorqj zlwk fkdqjhv lq wkh vl}h ri sodqwv= grzqvl}lqj rffxuv pdlqo|

lq orz0vnloo mrev/ zkloh vl}h h{sdqvlrq rffxuv pdlqo| lq kljk0vnloo mrev1 Wkh vdph uhvwuxfwxulqj iurp orz0 wr kljk0vnloo zrunhuv lv wdnlqj sodfh lq vwdeoh sodqwv/ exw wkh ohyho ri uhvwuxfwxulqj lv idu ohvv khuh/ zkhuh wkh vl}h ri wkh sodqwv lv frqvwdqw143 Wkh vdph sdwwhuq lv irxqg iru wkh qdqfldo vhfwru1

716 Orqj0uxq hhfwv

Wkh vwurqj dqqxdo sdwwhuq/ sduwlfxoduo| lq jurvv mre fuhdwlrq iru fhuwdlq hgxfd0 wlrq jurxsv/ ohdglqj wr vxevwlwxwlrq iurp orz wr kljk vnloo zrunhuv/ uhsuhvhqwv d frqwlqxlqj vwuxfwxudo fkdqjh/ vlqfh zh nqrz wkdw mrev fuhdwhg dqg ghvwur|hg uhsuhvhqw shupdqhqw fkdqjhv +Nohwwh dqg Pdwkldvvhq +4<<9,> Vdoydqhv +4<<:,,1 Khqfh/ wkh vxevwlwxwlrq dzd| iurp orz0vnloohg wr kljk0vnloohg zrunhuv lv hyhq pruh surqrxqfhg zkhq zh frqvlghu wkh fkdqjh lq d orqjhu wlph wuhqg1 Wdeoh 7 surylghv irxu0|hdu pryhphqwv ri hgxfdwlrq edvhg mre wxuqryhu phdvxuhv1

Wdeoh 7 khuh1

Wkh orqj uxq udwhv vkrz d fohdu sdwwhuq ri lqfuhdvhg hpsor|phqw ri kljko|0 hgxfdwhg zrunhuv dv frpsduhg wr phglxp0 dqg orz0hgxfdwhg zrunhuv lq pdqx0 idfwxulqj1 Wkh orqj0uxq qhw mre fuhdwlrq udwhv duh 49 dqg 53 shufhqw iru kljko|

hgxfdwhg/ zkhuhdv wkh dqqxdo udwh lv/ rq dyhudjh/ yh shufhqw1 Wkh qhw uhgxfwlrq udwhv iru orz0hgxfdwhg duh 4< dqg 47 shufhqw/ zlwk irxu shufhqw lq wkh vkruw uxq1 Frpsdulqj wkh wzr shulrgv/ 4<;90<3 dqg 4<<30<7/ zh fdq revhuyh d vwurqjhu qhw

43Dovr frqvlghulqj dovr khuh wkh jurvv mre fuhdwlrq dqg ghvwuxfwlrq udwhv/ zh qrwlfh iru frq0 wudfwlqj/ d vwdeoh dqg h{sdqglqj sodqwv wkdw lw lv wkh jurvv mre fuhdwlrq udwhv zklfk glhu dprqj vnloov/ surylglqj d orzhu qhw mre uhgxfwlrq udwh iru kljk0vnloohg jurxs/ zkloh wkh jurvv mre ghvwuxfwlrq udwhv duh doprvw htxdo1

(21)

mre fuhdwlrq iru wkh kljko| hgxfdwhg lq wkh odwwhu shulrg lq pdqxidfwxulqj/ l1h1 53 shufhqw lqfuhdvh frpsduhg wr 49 shufhqw/ zkloh wkhuh lv vljqlfdqwo| zhdnhu mre ghvwuxfwlrq udwh iru orz0hgxfdwhg zrunhuv= 04< shufhqw frpsduhg wr 047 shufhqw1 Wkh gulylqj irufh ehklqg wkhvh fkdqjhv lv wkh idfw wkdw wkh jurvv mre fuhdwlrq iru wkh kljko| hgxfdwhg lv lqfuhdvlqj ryhu wlph/ dqg wkh mre ghvwuxfwlrq udwh kdv ehhq uhgxfhg ryhu wlph iru orz0hgxfdwhg jurxs1 Wkh odwwhu uhvxow pd| eh h{sodlqhg e| wkh vwduwolqj uhfryhu| iurp wkh pdmru uhfhvvlrq lq 4<;;0;</ vorzlqj grzq wkh uhgxfwlrq ri orz0vnloohg zrunhuv1

Lq wkh qdqfldo vhfwru/ zh dovr qrwh wkdw wkhuh lv d vwurqj fxpxodwlyh hhfw ri wkh jurvv mre wxuqryhu udwhv dv uhsruwhg e| wkh orqj0uxq mre udwhv1 Krzhyhu/ vrph glhuhqfhv duh zruwk qrwlqj1 Wkhuh lv d glvwlqfw glhuhqfh ehwzhhq wkh uvw dqg vhfrqg shulrgv iru wkh qdqfldo vhfwru wkdw fdqqrw eh irxqg iru pdqxidfwxulqj1 Zkloh d uhgxfwlrq ri wkh orz0hgxfdwhg jurxs dqg dq lqfuhdvh lq wkh qxpehu ri kljko|0hgxfdwhg jurxs lv irxqg lq erwk shulrgv lq pdqxidfwxulqj/ wklv lv rqo|

dssduhqw lq wkh uvw shulrg lq wkh qdqfldo vhfwru1 Lq wkh vhfrqg shulrg/ doo hgxfdwlrq fdwhjrulhv duh ghfuhdvlqj dowkrxjk dw d kljkhu udwh iru orz0hgxfdwhg dqg phglxp0hgxfdwhg1

Fhuwdlq fkdudfwhulvwlfv ri wkh ghyhorsphqw ri wkh qdqfldo vhfwru fdq vkhg vrph oljkw rq wklv sdwwhuq1 Hpsor|phqw kdg ehhq vxujlqj diwhu wkh ghuhjxodwlrq ri wkh qdqfldo pdunhwv lq wkh hduo| hljkwlhv dqg gxulqj wkh errp lq wkh plg0 hljkwlhv/ dqg wkh vhfwru h{shulhqfhg d grzqwxuq iurp 4<;< wkdw ohg wr d pdmru grzqvl}lqj ri wkh vhfwru1 Dfwxdoo|/ wkh glhuhqfh ehwzhhq wkh orqj0uxq hhfwv ri jurvv mre fuhdwlrq dqg qhw mre fuhdwlrq revhuyhg ehwzhhq wkh uvw dqg wkh odvw irxu0|hdu shulrg glvjxlvhv dq hyhq vwurqjhu vkliw lq wkh vnloo frpsrvlwlrq lq wkh odwh 4<;3v1 Lq 4<;: dqg 4<;; srvlwlyh qhw mre fuhdwlrq wrrn sodfh iru doo vnloov1

717 Vxsso| ru ghpdqg hhfwvB

Wkh vxsso| ri orz0hgxfdwhg zrunhuv phdvxuhg dv d vkduh ri wkh wrwdo oderxu irufh kdv ghfolqhg vlqfh wkh 4<;3v/ dqg wkh vxsso| ri phglxp dqg kljko| hgxfdwhg zrun0 huv kdv lqfuhdvhg/ dv zh vdz iurp Iljxuh 41 Wkhuh kdv ehhq d sduwlfxoduo| kljk lqfuhdvh lq vxsso| ri phglxp0 dqg kljko| hgxfdwhg zrunhuv zlwk xqghujudgxdwh xqlyhuvlw| ghjuhhv1 Jlyhq wklv lqfuhdvhg vxsso| ri kljk0 dqg phglxp hgxfdwhg zrunhuv/ wrjhwkhu zlwk d fohdu sdwwhuq ri mre fuhdwlrq dqg mre ghvwuxfwlrq lq idyrxu ri kljko| hgxfdwhg zrunhuv lq doo vhfwruv/ lqfoxglqj wkh kljk vnloo vhuylfh vhfwru/

lw lv qrw fohdu zkhwkhu wkh fkdqjh lv gxh wr ghpdqg ru vxsso| hhfwv1 Lqfuhdvhg vxsso| ri hgxfdwlrq lv qhfhvvdu| li wkh vnloo frpsrvlwlrq lv fkdqjlqj wrzdugv d kljkhu hgxfdwlrq ohyho1 Krzhyhu/ wkh txhvwlrq lv zkhwkhu vxsso| ru ghpdqg lv wkh fdxvh ri wkh fkdqjh1 Lq rwkhu zrugv/ wkh txhvwlrq lv zkhwkhu lw lv qhz mrev zlwk qhz wdvn uhtxluhphqwv wkdw duh ghpdqghg dqg fuhdwhg e| wkh sodqwv/ ru zkhwkhu lw mxvw wkh rog mrev wkdw duh oohg zlwk pruh hgxfdwhg zrunhuv1 Iru wkh XV dqg XN/ erwk dq lqfuhdvhg uhodwlyh zdjh iru kljk0vnloohg zrunhuv dqg dq lqfuhdvhg vxsso| ri hgxfdwhg zrunhuv lqglfdwh wkdw d fkdqjh lq ghpdqg iru hgxfdwhg zrun0

(22)

huv lv gulylqj wkh fkdqjh lq wkh frpsrvlwlrq1 Vr idu/ dv zh vdz lq Vhfwlrq 5/ wkhuh lv qr fohdu0fxw lqirupdwlrq iru wkh Qruzhjldq hfrqrp| vxssruwlqj d fkdqjh lq wkh uhodwlyh zdjh ryhu vnloov lq idyrxu ri kljko| hgxfdwhg zrunhuv1 Lq frqwudvw/

wkh vwuxfwxuh ri lqgxvwuldo uhodwlrqv lq Qruzd|/ zlwk d frpsuhvvhg zdjh vwuxfwxuh zlwk olwwoh zdjh h{lelolw|/ idyruv dowhuqdwlyh ru dgglwlrqdo idfwruv h{sodlqlqj wkh fkdqjh lq vnloo frpsrvlwlrq1 Rqh dowhuqdwlyh lv wkdw ydfdqw srvlwlrqv duh mxvw oohg e| pruh hgxfdwhg zrunhuv dv wkh vxsso| ri vnloov lv lqfuhdvhg yld d kljkhu hgxfdwlrq ohyho1 Wkxv/ wkh zdjh vwuxfwxuh lv qrw h{leoh/ exw wkh vnloo uhtxluhphqw iru wkh mrev pd| eh h{leoh iru wkh rog mrev1

Zh zloo sduwo| wu| wr glvhqwdqjoh wkh vxsso| hhfw dqg ghpdqg hhfw iru vnloov e| {lqj wkh hgxfdwlrq ohyho iru rog dqg qhz frkruwv ri zrunhuv1 Wkhq zh fkhfn zkhwkhu wkh vdph qhw mre fuhdwlrq sdwwhuq iru glhuhqw hgxfdwlrq ohyhov ri zrunhu ghprqvwudwhv wkh vdph sdwwhuq zlwklq hdfk frkruw1 Li vxfk d sdwwhuq lv irxqg wklv phdqv wkdw lw fdq qrw rqo| eh d fkdqjh lq wkh vxsso| ri pruh hgxfdwhg zrunhuv iurp wkh pruh uhfhqw frkruwv wkdw h{sodlqv wkh ryhudoo lqfuhdvh lq pruh mrev iru kljko| hgxfdwhg1 Fkdqjhv lq ghpdqg pd| eh lpsruwdqw dovr1 Ri frxuvh/ {lqj hgxfdwlrq ohyhov iru hdfk frkruw grhv qrw { wkh wrwdo pdunhw vxsso|

vlqfh frkruw2hgxfdwlrq fdwhjrulhv duh srwhqwldo vxevwlwxwhv1 Exw wklv surylghv dq lqglfdwlrq ri wkh hhfw ri ghpdqg iru vnloov/ qrw rqo| d vxsso|0gulyhq uhvsrqvh ri oolqj wkh vdph mrev zlwk pruh hgxfdwhg zrunhuv iurp qhz frkruwv1

Zh { wkh hgxfdwlrq ohyho e| vsolwwlqj wkh gdwd vhw lqwr frkruwv ri zrunhuv1 Lw lv uhdvrqdeoh wr dvvxph wkdw yhu| olwwoh hgxfdwlrq lv wdnhq diwhu wkh djh ri 58/

dqg khqfh wkh vxsso| hhfw lv khog {hg1 Zh xvh rqo| wkh gdwd vhw frqvlvwlqj ri zrunhuv deryh 58 |hduv ri djh lq 4<;9/ zklfk lv wkh uvw |hdu lq rxu sdqho gdwd vhw1 Zh wkhq iroorz wkh sdwwhuq ri mre fuhdwlrq iru wkh wkuhh hgxfdwlrq jurxsv ri glhuhqw frkruwv ri zrunhuv ri 58 |hduv ri djh ru pruh lq 4<;91 Wkh iroorzlqj frkruwv zhuh ghqhg1 Frkruw 4/ wkrvh djhg 58067 lq 4<;9> frkruw 5/ wkrvh djhg 68077 lq 4<;9> frkruw 6/ wkrvh djhg 78087 lq 4<;9> dqg frkruw 7/ wkrvh djhg 88097 lq 4<;91 Iru hdfk frkruw/ wkh hgxfdwlrq ohyho lv {hg/ dqg khqfh li d sdwwhuq lv irxqg iru wkh glhuhqw frkruwv vlplodu wr wkh jhqhudo slfwxuh ri vxevwlwxwlrq ehwzhhq vnloov dv uhsruwhg lq Wdeoh 4/ lw fdq rqo| eh gxh wr d fkdqjh lq wkh ghpdqg iru vnloov144 Wkhuh pljkw zhoo eh glhuhqfhv ryhu frkruwv lq wkdw roghu zrunhuv pd| eh pruh vwurqjo| frqqhfwhg wr wkhlu mrev1 Exw/ d glhuhqfh lq mre fuhdwlrq ehwzhhq vnloov zlwklq frkruwv vkrxog vwloo krog li d fkdqjh lq ghpdqg lv lpsruwdqw1

Iljxuh : khuh1

Iljxuh : suhvhqwv wkh qhw mre fuhdwlrq udwhvEa-iru wkh irxu frkruwv/ dqg iru wkh djjuhjdwh wkdw grhv qrw frqwuro iru vnloo vxsso|1 Wkh pdlq uhvxow vkrzq lq Iljxuh : lv wkdw wkh vdph sdwwhuq ri d kljkhu ghjuhh ri qhw mre fuhdwlrq iru

44Lw zrxog kdyh ehhq suhihudeoh wr iroorz doo frkruwv vwduwlqj dw 58 |hduv ri djh ryhu wkh hqwluh zrunlqj shulrg1 Krzhyhu/ gxh wr gdwd olplwdwlrqv zh fdq rqo| vwxg| vnloo0edvhg mre fuhdwlrq dqg ghvwuxfwlrq iru wkh shulrg 4<;90<71

(23)

kljko| hgxfdwhg wkdq iru orz0hgxfdwhg zrunhuv h{lvwv iru doo frkruwv/ zlwk wkh h{fhswlrq ri frkruw 61 Zlwklq hyhu| frkruw lq wkh shulrg 4<;90<7/ krzhyhu/ dq hphujlqj sdwwhuq ri kljkhu qhw mre fuhdwlrq iru kljk0 frpsduhg wr ohvv0hgxfdwhg zrunhuv lv qrw gxh wr d fkdqjh lq vxsso| ri vnloov/ lq wkdw orz0vnloohg zrunhuv ohdyh wkhlu mrev dqg wkh oderxu irufh/ dqg qhz dqg pruh vnloohg zrunhuv hqwhu wkh oderxu irufh dqg oo wkh ydfdqw srvlwlrqv1 Kroglqj wkh vxsso| ri hgxfdwlrq {hg vwloo surylghv kljkhu qhw mre fuhdwlrq iru kljk0 dqg phglxp0hgxfdwhg zrunhuv frpsduhg wr orz0hgxfdwhg1 Khqfh/ wkhuh lv d glhuhqfh lq ghpdqg iru hgxfdwlrq jurxsv wkdw lv dw ohdvw sduwo| uhvsrqvleoh iru wkh glhuhqfh lq mre fuhdwlrq ryhu hgxfdwlrq ohyhov/ dv vkrzq lq Wdeoh 4 ru dv uhsuhvhqwhg lq Iljxuh :d1 Dowkrxjk wkh hgxfdwlrq glhuhqfh lq qhw mre fuhdwlrq krogv iru doo frkruwv +zlwk wkh h{fhswlrq ri frkruw 6> zrunhuv eruq iurp 4<74 wr 4<83,/ wkhuh lv d glhuhqfh lq wkh ohyho ri qhw mre fuhdwlrq ehwzhhq frkruwv zklfk dovr lqglfdwhv d vxsso| hhfw h{sodlqlqj wkh ryhudoo mre fuhdwlrq sdwwhuq1 Iru wkh wzr |rxqjhvw frkruwv/ wkrvh eruq lq 4<84093 dqg 4<940:3/ wkh qhw mre fuhdwlrq udwh lv kljkhu/ hvshfldoo| iru phglxp0 dqg kljk0 vnloohg zrunhuv +lq Wdeoh L lq wkh Dsshqgl{ wkh qhw mre fuhdwlrq dqg jurvv mre fuhdwlrq2ghvwuxfwlrq udwhv duh jlyhq iru wkh irxu frkruwv,1 Wkh glhuhqfh ehwzhhq frkruwv/ d kljkhu qhw mre fuhdwlrq udwh iru kljko| hgxfdwhg |rxqj zrunhuv wkdq iru rog zrunhuv/ sduwo| uh hfwv wkh hhfw ri uhwluhphqw ri rog zrunhuv +frkruw 7 lv ehwzhhq 96 dqg :5 |hduv ri djh lq 4<<7, dqg sduwo| wkh hhfw ri hqwudqfh lqwr wkh oderxu pdunhw ri kljkhu hgxfdwhg zrunhuv/ iroorzlqj wkh wuhqg ri d kljkhu hgxfdwlrq ohyho lq vrflhw| dw odujh1 Iurp Wdeoh L lq wkh Dsshqgl{/ zh vhh wkdw wkh qhw mre fuhdwlrq udwh lv yhu| odujh/ 65 shufhqw/ iru kljko| hgxfdwhg iru wkh |rxqjhvw frkruw/ dqg qhjdwlyh iru wkh wzr roghvw frkruwv/ dovr iru kljko| hgxfdwhg1

Lq vxp/ rxu uhvxowv vhhp wr frqup erwk wkdw wkhuh lw d glhuhqfh lq ghpdqg iru hgxfdwlrq jurxsv zklfk fdq h{sodlq wkh ryhudoo sdwwhuq ri kljk mre fuhdwlrq iru hgxfdwhg kljko| zrunhuv/ dqg wkdw wklv lv d vxsso| hhfw lq wkdw wkh kljkhu hgxfdwlrq ohyho ryhu wlph kdv ohdg wr d uhsodfhphqw hhfw iurp orz wr kljko|

hgxfdwhg zrunhuv1 Wkh idfw ghprqvwudwhg lq Wdeoh 4/ wkdw lw lv jurvv mre fuhdwlrq dqg qrw ghvwuxfwlrq wkdw gulyhv wkh vnloo vxevwlwxwlrq/ vxssruwv ghpdqg gulyhq fkdqjh/ l1h1 wkdw lw lv qhz mrev zlwk qhz wdvnv uhtxlulqj kljkhu vnloov wkdw duh fuhdwhg1

8 Vnloo xsjudglqj iru doo sodqwv ru rqo| vrphB

Dw wkh fruh ri wkh suhvhqw sdshu lv dq dqdo|vlv ri zkhwkhu wkh revhuyhg uhdoorfdwlrq ri uhvrxufhv lv wdnlqj sodfh iru doo sodqwv lq hdfk vhfwru ru zkhwkhu uhdoorfdwlrq ri mrev lv dfurvv hvwdeolvkphqwv1 Wkh dqdo|vlv vr idu frxog qrw glvwlqjxlvk eh0 wzhhq wkhvh glhuhqw k|srwkhvhv1 Wklv lv dq lpsruwdqw txhvwlrq/ vlqfh lqfuhdvhg ghpdqg iru vnloohg zrunhuv/ gulyhq iru lqvwdqfh e| whfkqrorjlfdo fkdqjh/ frxog wdnh sodfh iru doo sodqwv lq d vhfwru dqg wkxv eh uhdol}hg dv d fkdqjh lq vnloo pl{ zlwklq doo sodqwv1 Dowhuqdwlyho|/ wkh vnloo xsjudglqj pd| wdnh sodfh yld uh0

(24)

doorfdwlrq ri vnloohg mrev iurp vrph sodqwv wr rwkhu sodqwv/ phdvxuhg dv ehwzhhq sodqw mre uhdoorfdwlrq1 Wkh odwwhu lpsolhv d whqghqf| wr juhdwhu glvshuvlrq dfurvv hvwdeolvkphqwv dqg wkxv juhdwhu vhjuhjdwlrq lq wkh oderxu pdunhw dfurvv sodqwv1 Wkh idfw wkdw zh kdyh sodqw ohyho gdwd doorzv xv wr ghfrpsrvh mre uhdoorfdwlrq zlwklq dqg ehwzhhq sodqwv/ dqg wkh vlqfh lw lv olqnhg hpsor|hu0hpsor|hh gdwd zh fdq dvvhvv ghfrpsrvlwlrqv iru glhuhqw zrunhuv e| djjuhjdwlqj ryhu lqglylg0 xdo zrunhuv vkdulqj wkh vdph kxpdq fdslwdo fkdudfwhulvwlfv1 Lq wklv fdvh/ wkh prvw uhohydqw lv hgxfdwlrq ohyho1 Vhfrqgo|/ dqrwkhu txhvwlrq uhjduglqj vnloo pl{

fkdqjhv lv zkhwkhu wkh uhvwuxfwxulqj wdnhv sodfh e| fkdqjlqj surgxfwlrq olqhv dqg lqwurgxflqj qhz whfkqrorj| lq frqwlqxlqj sodqwv/ ru yld qhz hqwudqwv zlwk qhz ylqwdjh fdslwdo h{sdqglqj lq kljk vnloohg zrunhuv dqg h{lwlqj ri sodqwv zlwk orz vnloohg zrunhuv1 Jlyhq djdlq rxu ghwdlohg olqnhg hpsor|hu0hpsor|hh gdwd vhw wkdw dovr lghqwlhv h{lw dqg hqwu| ri sodqwv/ zh fdq vhsdudwh mre fuhdwlrq dqg ghvwuxfwlrq e| vnloo glhuhqfhv lq sodqw wxuqryhu +h{lw dqg hqwu| ri sodqwv, dqg mre wxuqryhu lq frqwlqxlqj sodqwv1

814 Zlwklq dqg ehwzhhq sodqw mre uhdoorfdwlrq

Mre fuhdwlrq dqg mre ghvwuxfwlrq udwhv ehwzhhq glhuhqw hgxfdwlrq jurxsv dw wkh sodqw ohyho/ dffrxqw iru erwk h{sdqvlrq dqg frqwudfwlrq lq wkh djjuhjdwh zrun irufh/ dv zhoo dv fkdqjhv lq wkh frpsrvlwlrq ri vnloov zlwklq sodqwv/ l1h1 wkh uhodwlyh ohyho ri kljko|0/ phglxp0 dqg orz hgxfdwhg zrunhuv1 Wkh ghfrpsrvlwlrq ri mre fuhdwlrq zlwklq dqg ehwzhhq sodqwv duh surylghg lq Wdeoh 8/ xvlqj wkh ghfrpsrvlwlrqv jlyhq lq htxdwlrqv 9 wr ;1

Wdeoh 8 khuh1

Lw iroorzv iurp Wdeoh 8 wkdw mre uhdoorfdwlrq ehwzhhq orz/ phglxp dqg kljko|

vnloohg mrev zlwklq sodqwv lv rq dyhudjh wkuhh shufhqw lq wkh pdqxidfwxulqj lq0 gxvwu| dqg irxu shufhqw lq wkh qdqfldo vhfwru/ dffrxqwlqj iru 46 shufhqw dqg 48 shufhqw ri wkh wrwdo mre uhdoorfdwlrq uhvshfwlyho|1 Khqfh/ zkloh zlwklq sodqw xsjudglqj ri wkh zrun irufh wdnhv sodfh wr vrph ghjuhh dqg/ lv frqvlvwhqw zlwk whfkqrorj| xsjudglqj zlwklq doo sodqwv/ ehwzhhq sodqw fkdqjhv duh prvw lpsru0 wdqw1 Wklv lv d yhu| lpsruwdqw uhvxow= khwhurjhqhlw| dprqj sodqwv zlwklq vhfwruv ohdgv wr uhdoorfdwlrq ri zrunhuv ehwzhhq sodqwv1 Dv vkrzq lq wkhruhwlfdo zrun/ e|

iru lqvwdqfh Nuhphu +4<<6, dqg Nuhphu dqg Pdvnlq +4<<9,/ rqh uhdvrq iru wkh glvshuvlrq dprqj sodqwv pd| zhoo eh wkh hhfw ri vnloo0eldvhg whfkqlfdo fkdqjh1 Wklv uhvxow lv dovr lqwhuhvwlqj lq wkh oljkw ri uhfhqw hpslulfdo qglqjv1 Irvwhu hw do1 +4<<;, qg wkdw wkhuh duh lpsruwdqw surgxfwlylw| jdlqv iurp uhdoorfdwlrq ri uhvrxufhv ehwzhhq sodqwv zlwklq qduurzo| ghqhg vhfwruv1 Rxu uhvxowv dovr vxjjhvw srwhqwldo jdlqv iurp uhdoorfdwlrq ri uhvrxufhv ehwzhhq sodqwv1 Zh zloo sxuvxh wklv lq Vhfwlrq 8 e| wu|lqj wr dvvhvv zklfk idfwruv pd| ixuwkhu h{sodlq wkh revhuyhg glvshuvlrq dprqj sodqwv1 Iluvw/ zh xvh pruh djjuhjdwh lqirupdwlrq rq whfkqrorjlfdo fkdqjh dqg fkdqjh frpshwlwlrq iurp wudgh/ dqg wkhq zh dsso|

sodqw0ohyho lqirupdwlrq lq wkh hfrqrphwulf dqdo|vlv1

Referanser

RELATERTE DOKUMENTER

Wkh pdlq qglqj lq wklv sdshu lv wkdw wkhuh kdv ehhq d ghfolqh lq wkh hfrqrplf uhwxuqv wr vfkrrolqj dfurvv frkruwv1 Wklv ghfolqh lv prvwo| wkh uhvxow ri fkdqjlqj vhohfwlrq

zlwk uhihuhqfh wr zkdw nlqg ri lpsdfwv wkh xqfhuwdlqwlhv pd| kdyh iru srolw0 lfdo ghflvlrqv1 Vhfwlrq 6 glvfxvvhv dedwhphqw xqghu xqfhuwdlqw| rq wkh edvlv ri d vlpsoh prgho wr vkrz

|@| @ 31 Wkdw lv/ li wkh ehqhwv iurp dedwhphqw duh glvfrxqwhg dw wkh vdph udwh dv ehqhwv iurp lqyhvwphqwv lq uhdo fdslwdo/ lw lv lpsolflwo| dvvxphg wkdw zh duh lq d vwdwlrqdu|

; Zh xvh P wr lqglfdwh wkh qxpehu ri jurxsv1 Lq rughu iru dq djuhhphqw wr zrun/ doo jurxsv pxvw ehqhw iurp lw/ dovr wkh ohdvw hflhqw wkdw zrxog qrw sduwlflsdwh lq d ixoo jkw1

%XW WKH PRQLWRULQJ IXQFWLRQ PXVW JR EH\RQG WKH HVWDEOLVKHG IUDPHZRUN RI SOHGJHGUHODWLRQVWRZHOONQRZQ07PDQXIDFWXUHUV6\VWHPVXSSOLHUVWKDWKDYH D VWUDWHJ\ RI EHLQJ LQ WKH IRUHIURQW

Wkh sxusrvh ri wkh suhvhqw sdshu kdv ehhq wr dsso| vwrfkdvwlf g|qdplf surjudpplqj lq rughu wr ghyhors dq hfrqrphwulf prgho iru up h{lw1 Dffruglqj wr vwrfkdvwlf g|qdplf surjudpplqj/

Wklv sdshu glvfxvvhv wkh srwhqwldo ri wkh vr0fdoohg fodvv ri Sduhwr0Ohy| glvwulexwlrqv dv d iudph0 zrun iru dqdo|}lqj lqfrph glvwulexwlrqv1 Lq wkh vl{wlhv dqg vhyhqwlhv Pdqghoeurw

Devwudfw= Wklv sdshu xvhv lpshuihfw frpshwlwlrq dv d edvlv iru prghoolqj wkh h{sruw sulfh iru dq djjuhjdwhg frpprglw| surgxfhg e| wkh Qruzhjldq sulydwh pdlqodqg hfrqrp|1 Wkh orqj