• No results found

Explaining the change in skill structure of labour demand in Norwegian manufacturing

N/A
N/A
Protected

Academic year: 2022

Share "Explaining the change in skill structure of labour demand in Norwegian manufacturing"

Copied!
33
0
0

Laster.... (Se fulltekst nå)

Fulltekst

(1)

'LVFXVVLRQ3DSHUV1R'HFHPEHU 6WDWLVWLFV1RUZD\5HVHDUFK'HSDUWPHQW

.MHUVWL*UR/LQGTXLVWDQG7HUMH6NMHUSHQ

([SODLQLQJWKHFKDQJHLQVNLOO VWUXFWXUHRIODERXUGHPDQGLQ 1RUZHJLDQPDQXIDFWXULQJ

$EVWUDFW

,QPRVW2(&'FRXQWULHVODERXUGHPDQGKDVVKLIWHGIURPXQVNLOOHGWRVNLOOHGRYHUWLPH0DQ\

DQDO\VHVRIWKLVSKHQRPHQRQIRFXVRQHLWKHUWKHHIIHFWRIWHFKQLFDOFKDQJHFDSLWDOVNLOO

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

.H\ZRUGV+HWHURJHQHRXVODERXU'\QDPLFIDFWRUGHPDQG3DQHOGDWD -(/FODVVLILFDWLRQ&(

$FNQRZOHGJHPHQW7KHDXWKRUVZLVKWRWKDQN(ULN%L¡UQ6WHSKHQ%RQGcGQH&DSSHOHQ

SDUWLFLSDQWVDWWKH125/$%:RUNVKRSLQ5RVHQGDO0D\DQGSDUWLFLSDQWVDWD:RUNVKRSDWWKH 1RUZHJLDQ&HQWUDO%DQN2FWREHUIRUYDOXDEOHFRPPHQWV+HOSZLWKILJXUHVIURP$XG:DOVHWKLV KLJKO\DSSUHFLDWHG)LQDQFLDOVXSSRUWZDVSURYLGHGE\WKH1RUZHJLDQ5HVHDUFK&RXQFLOSURMHFW

$GGUHVV.MHUVWL*UR/LQGTXLVW&HQWUDO%DQNRI1RUZD\5HVHDUFK'HSDUWPHQW32%R[

6HQWUXP12VOR1RUZD\(PDLONMHUVWLJUROLQGTXLVW#QRUJHVEDQNQR :RUNGRQHZKLOHDW6WDWLVWLFV1RUZD\

7HUMH6NMHUSHQ6WDWLVWLFV1RUZD\5HVHDUFK'HSDUWPHQW32%R['HS1 2VOR1RUZD\(PDLOWHUMHVNMHUSHQ#VVEQR

(2)

'LVFXVVLRQ3DSHUV FRPSULVHUHVHDUFKSDSHUVLQWHQGHGIRULQWHUQDWLRQDOMRXUQDOVRUERRNV$VDSUHSULQWD 'LVFXVVLRQ3DSHUFDQEHORQJHUDQGPRUHHODERUDWHWKDQDVWDQGDUGMRXUQDODUWLFOHE\LQ FOXGLQJLQWHUPHGLDWHFDOFXODWLRQDQGEDFNJURXQGPDWHULDOHWF

$EVWUDFWVZLWKGRZQORDGDEOH3')ILOHVRI

'LVFXVVLRQ3DSHUVDUHDYDLODEOHRQWKH,QWHUQHWKWWSZZZVVEQR

)RUSULQWHG'LVFXVVLRQ3DSHUVFRQWDFW 6WDWLVWLFV1RUZD\

6DOHVDQGVXEVFULSWLRQVHUYLFH 1.RQJVYLQJHU

7HOHSKRQH

7HOHID[

(PDLO 6DOJDERQQHPHQW#VVEQR

(3)

,QWURGXFWLRQ

,Q1RUZD\DVLQPRVW2(&'FRXQWULHVWKHVNLOOVWUXFWXUHRIODERXUGHPDQGKDVVKLIWHGLQ IDYRXURIVNLOOHGZRUNHUVRYHUWKHODVWGHFDGHV,QWKHOLWHUDWXUHWZRPDLQK\SRWKHVHVKDYH EHHQ SXW IRUZDUG WR H[SODLQ WKLV FKDQJH LQ ODERXU GHPDQG L WKH VNLOOHGELDVHG WHFKQLFDO FKDQJH K\SRWKHVLV DQG LL WKH LQFUHDVHG LQWHUQDWLRQDO FRPSHWLWLRQ K\SRWKHVLV VHH IRU H[DPSOH+DPHUPHVK:RRG.UXJPDQDQG%HUPDQHWDO

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

'XULQJWKHODVW\HDUVDODUJHQXPEHURIDQDO\VHVKDYHFRQFOXGHGWKDWPRVWRIWKHREVHUYHG FKDQJH LQ UHODWLYH ODERXU GHPDQG LQ 2(&'FRXQWULHV LV GXH WR ZLWKLQ LQGXVWU\ UDWKHU WKDQ EHWZHHQLQGXVWU\FKDQJHV3RVLWLYHHIIHFWVRQWKHGHPDQGIRUVNLOOHGODERXUIURPLQFUHDVHG FRPSXWHULVDWLRQRU5 'LQWHQVLW\DUHDOVRIRXQG,QJHQHUDOWKLVLVDVVXPHGWRVXSSRUWWKH VNLOOHGELDVHGWHFKQLFDOFKDQJHDQGFDSLWDOVNLOOFRPSOHPHQWDULW\K\SRWKHVHVVHH%RXQGDQG -RKQVRQ$XWRUHWDO%HUPDQHWDO0DFKLQDQG9DQ5HHQHQ .DKQ.DKQDQG/LPDQG6DOYDQHVDQG)¡UUH

(4)

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 JHODQGHWDO%\FRQWUDVWLQ8QLWHG6WDWHVDQG8QLWHG.LQJGRPZDJH LQHTXDOLW\KDVLQFUHDVHGFI&DUGHWDODQG1LFNHOODQG%HOODPRQJRWKHUV

$OWKRXJKWKHUHLVDJURZLQJERG\RIDUWLFOHVWKDWVWXG\WKHGHPDQGIRUKHWHURJHQHRXVODERXU XVLQJERWKPDFURDQGPLFURGDWDWKLVDQDO\VLVLVPRUHJHQHUDOWKDQPRVWRWKHUVDQGVWXGLHV WKHLQIOXHQFHRIDQXPEHURIIDFWRUVRQWKHGHPDQGIRUVNLOOHGDQGXQVNLOOHGODERXU,QGXVWU\

OHYHOSDQHOGDWDIURP1RUZHJLDQPDQXIDFWXULQJLVDSSOLHGDQGODERXULVFODVVLILHGDVVNLOOHGRU XQVNLOOHGDFFRUGLQJWRWKHLUKLJKHVWIRUPDOHGXFDWLRQ2XUGDWDGRQRWLQFOXGHLQIRUPDWLRQRQ ZRUNH[SHULHQFHZKLFKPD\WRVRPHGHJUHHVXEVWLWXWHIRUIRUPDOHGXFDWLRQ7KHLPSRUWDQW LVVXHIRUWKLVDQDO\VLVLVKRZHPSOR\HUVFRQVLGHUHGXFDWLRQYLVjYLVH[SHULHQFHKRZHYHUDQG DUJXPHQWVFDQEHUDLVHGWKDWVXSSRUWRXUHGXFDWLRQEDVHGFODVVLILFDWLRQ(GXFDWLRQVLJQDOVWKDWD SHUVRQLVDPELWLRXVDQGWKDWKHRUVKHLVFDSDEOHRIERWKDFTXLULQJQHZVNLOOVDQGIXQFWLRQLQJLQD V\VWHP ZLWK REOLJDWLRQV +HQFH DV D VLJQDO HGXFDWLRQ LV PRUH LPSRUWDQW WKDQ H[SHULHQFH )XUWKHUPRUH LI LW WDNHV ORQJHU WLPH WR DFKLHYH WKH VDPH OHYHO RI TXDOLILFDWLRQV E\ ZRUN H[SHULHQFHWKDQE\HGXFDWLRQDQGDJHFRXQWVQHJDWLYHO\RQLWVRZQWKLVDGGVWRWKHDUJXPHQW WKDWHGXFDWLRQLVPRUHLPSRUWDQWWKDQH[SHULHQFH

7KH WUDQVORJ FRVW IXQFWLRQ VXJJHVWHG E\ &KULVWHQVHQ HW DO LV DSSOLHG DQG D PXOWLYDULDWH HUURUFRUUHFWLRQ PRGHO RI WKH FRVW VKDUHV RI WZR W\SHV RI ODERXU PDWHULDOV DQG

7KHVKLIWLQWKHVKDUHRIVNLOOHGPDQKRXUVRIWRWDOPDQKRXUVLVGHFRPSRVHGLQWRWZRSDUWVRQHWKDW VKRZVWKHLPSRUWDQFHRIVKLIWVLQWKHODERXUFRPSRVLWLRQZLWKLQLQGXVWULHVDQGRQHWKDWVKRZVWKH LPSRUWDQFHRIFKDQJHVLQWKHFRPSRVLWLRQRILQGXVWULHVZLWKGLIIHUHQWVNLOOHGODERXULQWHQVLWLHV2XU FDOFXODWLRQVUHO\RQWKHIUDPHZRUNXVHGE\$XWRUHWDODQG%HUPDQHWDODPRQJRWKHUV

)RUDVXUYH\RIDQDO\VHVXVLQJPLFURGDWDVHH&KHQQHOOVDQG9DQ5HHQHQ

(5)

HQHUJ\LVHVWLPDWHGFI$QGHUVRQDQG%OXQGHOO)HZDQDO\VHVKDYHWUHDWHGWKHGHPDQGIRU KHWHURJHQHRXV ODERXU PDWHULDOV DQG HQHUJ\ ZLWKLQ WKH FRQWH[W RI D G\QDPLF IDFWRU GHPDQG V\VWHP ZLWK WKHRU\ FRQVLVWHQW FURVVHTXDWLRQ UHVWULFWLRQV HPEHGGHG VHH KRZHYHU )DON DQG .RHEHODQG)LW]HQEHUJHU

7KH FKRVHQ IUDPHZRUN HQDEOHV XV WR FRQVLGHU ERWK PXWXDO ODERXU VXEVWLWXWLRQ DQG ODERXU VXEVWLWXWLRQZLWKRWKHUYDULDEOHLQSXWV,QDGGLWLRQQRQQHXWUDOWHFKQLFDOFKDQJHLVVSHFLILHGLQD JHQHUDOZD\VRWKDWERWKVNLOOHGODERXUXVLQJDQGXQVNLOOHGODERXUVDYLQJWHFKQLFDOFKDQJHDUH WDNHQ LQWR DFFRXQW )XUWKHUPRUH WKH LPSRUWDQFH RI JURZWK LQ FDSLWDO VWRFN LV VWXGLHG DQG KRPRWKHWLFLW\RIWKHSURGXFWLRQIXQFWLRQLVWHVWHGUDWKHUWKDQLPSRVHGjSULRUL7KHLPSRUWDQFHRI LQGXVWU\VWUXFWXUHIRUODERXUGHPDQGLVDOVRHPSKDVLVHGDQGWKHJHQHUDOPRGHOLQFOXGHVERWKD IL[HGLQGXVWU\HIIHFWDQGKHWHURJHQHRXVFRHIILFLHQWVLHDIL[HGEXWKHWHURJHQHRXV FRHIILFLHQW VSHFLILFDWLRQRQFDSLWDORXWSXWDQGWHFKQLFDOFKDQJH&DSLWDOLVDVVXPHGWREHTXDVLIL[HGZKLFK LPSOLHVWKDWLQWKLVDQDO\VLVWKHORQJUXQKDVDSDUWLDOHTXLOLEULXPLQWHUSUHWDWLRQ

6HFWLRQSUHVHQWVWKHHFRQRPHWULFPRGHODQGWKHHPSLULFDOUHVXOWVDUHSUHVHQWHGLQVHFWLRQ 7KHPDLQFRQFOXVLRQVDUHVXPPDULVHGLQVHFWLRQ

(6)

7KHFRVWVKDUHHTXDWLRQV\VWHP

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¡WWDDPRQJRWKHUV :HFKHFNKRZHYHUWKH³FRQFDYLW\LQSULFHV´FRQGLWLRQFI-RUJHQVRQ

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

7KHFRHIILFLHQWVaLIgL;IgL.IDQGgLtIDUHLQGXVWU\VSHFLILFLQRXUJHQHUDOPRGHO7KHUHPDLQLQJ FRHIILFLHQWVDUHDVVXPHGWREHFRQVWDQWDFURVVLQGXVWULHV7KHV\PEROSLLPSOLHVWKHVXPRYHUDOO YDULDEOHLQSXWV

OQ&I gSLaLIOQ4LISLSMbLMOQ4LIOQ4MIg;OQ;Ig;;OQ;I SLgL;IOQ4LIOQ;Ig.OQ.Ig..OQ.ISLgL.IOQ4LIOQ.I

g;.OQ;IOQ.IgttgtttSLgLtIOQ4LItg;tOQ;Itg.tOQ.It LM 680(I³{}

,QLWLDOO\WKHPRGHOZDVVSHFLILHGZLWKWZRFDSLWDOFDWHJRULHV%XLOGLQJVVWUXFWXUHVDQGWUDQVSRUW HTXLSPHQWDVRQHFDWHJRU\DQG0DFKLQHU\DVDVHFRQG&RPSXWHUVZKLFKLQFRUSRUDWHQHZWHFKQRORJ\

DUHLQFOXGHGLQ0DFKLQHU\:HZDQWHGWRWHVWLI0DFKLQHU\DQG%XLOGLQJVDIIHFWHGODERXUGHPDQG GLIIHUHQWO\DQGWRVHHLIZHFRXOGILQGVXSSRUWIRUWKHK\SRWKHVLVWKDWVNLOOHGODERXULVFRPSOHPHQWDU\WR QHZWHFKQRORJLHV7KLVDSSURDFKJDYHLPSODXVLEOHUHVXOWVSUREDEO\EHFDXVHRIVWURQJPXOWLFROOLQHDULW\

EHWZHHQWKHWZRFDSLWDOFDWHJRULHV7KHZLWKLQLQGXVWULDOFRUUHODWLRQFRHIILFLHQWLVDVKLJKDVIRU PRVWLQGXVWULHV

)RUVLPSOLFLW\FRHIILFLHQWVWKDWGRQRWHQWHUWKHHVWLPDWHGFRVWVKDUHHTXDWLRQV\VWHPSUHVHQWHG ODWHULHFRHIILFLHQWVWKDWGRQRWLQFOXGHLLQLWVVXEVFULSWDUHVSHFLILHGDVLGHQWLFDODFURVVLQGXVWULHV LQHT

(7)

&I SL4LI¼9LI L 680(I³{}

ZKHUH&IUHSUHVHQWVWRWDOYDULDEOHFRVWVRILQGXVWU\I4LILVWKHLQGXVWU\VSHFLILFSULFHRILQSXWL 9LILVWKHTXDQWLW\RILQSXWLXVHGE\LQGXVWU\I;ILVUHDOJURVVRXWSXWRILQGXVWU\I.ILVWKHUHDO FDSLWDOVWRFNLQLQGXVWU\ItLVDGHWHUPLQLVWLFWLPHWUHQGLQWHQGHGWRSUR[\WKHJHQHUDOOHYHORI WHFKQRORJ\

%\DVVXPLQJSULFHWDNLQJEHKDYLRXULQIDFWRUPDUNHWVDQGDSSO\LQJ6KHSKDUGVOHPPDZHREWDLQ WKHFRVWVKDUH6LIHTXDWLRQVLQ

6LI ›OQ&I›OQ4LI 4LI¼9LI&I aLISMbLMOQ4MIgL;IOQ;IgL.IOQ.IgLtIt LM 680(I³{}

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

7KH PRWLYDWLRQ IRU WKH LQGXVWU\ VSHFLILF FDSLWDO FRHIILFLHQW LV WKDW WKH FDSLWDO LQWHQVLW\ DQG VWUXFWXUHYDU\LQLPSRUWDQWZD\VDFURVVLQGXVWULHVODUJHO\GRWRGLIIHUHQFHVLQFRPSRVLWLRQRI EXLOGLQJVVWUXFWXUHVPDFKLQHU\DQGWUDQVSRUWHTXLSPHQW7KLVPLJKWLQIOXHQFHWKHFRVWVKDUHV RIYDULDEOHLQSXWV7KHWUHQGYDULDEOHLVDVVXPHGWRFDSWXUHWHFKQLFDOFKDQJHDQGWKHLQGXVWU\

VSHFLILF WUHQG FRHIILFLHQW LV LQFOXGHG WR WHVW LI WKH HIIHFW RI WHFKQLFDO SURJUHVV YDULHV )XUWKHUPRUH LI VNLOOHGELDVHGWHFKQLFDO FKDQJH DW OHDVW WR VRPH GHJUHH LV D UHVSRQVH WR LQFUHDVHG LQWHUQDWLRQDO FRPSHWLWLRQ IURP OHVV DQG QHZO\ GHYHORSHG FRXQWULHV WKLV LV DQ DGGLWLRQDO DUJXPHQW IRU LQFOXGLQJ LQGXVWU\ VSHFLILF WUHQG FRHIILFLHQWV VLQFH WKH GHJUHH RI FRPSHWLWLRQYDULHV

7KHSULFHFRHIILFLHQWVDUHVSHFLILHGDVLGHQWLFDODFURVVLQGXVWULHVLQRXUJHQHUDOPRGHO'XHWR D GHJUHH RI IUHHGRP SUREOHP LW LV LPSUXGHQW WR LQFUHDVH WKH QXPEHU RI FRHIILFLHQWV WR EH HVWLPDWHGVXEVWDQWLDOO\DQGZHDUHIRUFHGWRSXWVRPHUHVWULFWLRQVRQWKHFRHIILFLHQWVDFURVV LQGXVWULHV &DOFXODWHG SULFH HODVWLFLWLHV IRUPXODV ZLOO EH VKRZQ ODWHU GHSHQG RQ ERWK

(8)

HVWLPDWHG FRHIILFLHQWV DQG FRVW VKDUHV DQG WKH ODWWHU HOHPHQW LQWURGXFHV YDULDWLRQ LQ WKHVH HODVWLFLWLHV ERWK DFURVV LQGXVWULHVDQG RYHUWLPH $ VHFRQG DUJXPHQW IRU FKRRVLQJ FRPPRQ SULFHFRHIILFLHQWVLVWKDWUHVWULFWLRQVWRDYRLGDYLRODWLRQRIWKH³FRQFDYLW\LQSULFHV´FRQGLWLRQ PD\EHHDVLHUWRLPSRVH

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

7KHPXOWLYDULDWHHUURUFRUUHFWLRQUHSUHVHQWDWLRQ RI LV JLYHQLQ )RU FRQYHQLHQFH ZH SUHVHQW WKH PRGHO LQ YHFWRU IRUP 2XU PRVW JHQHUDO PRGHO LQFOXGHV DOO YDULDEOHV ZLWK WKH H[FHSWLRQRIWKHWUHQGDWWDQGW

D6IW %D=IW'>6IWPqI=IW@XIW

ZKHUHDLVWKHILUVWGLIIHUHQFHRSHUDWRU6IWLVDYHFWRURILQGXVWU\VSHFLILFFRVWVKDUHVDQG=IWLVD YHFWRURIUHJUHVVRUVWKDWLQFOXGHVWKHORJDULWKPRILQSXWSULFHVRXWSXWWKHFDSLWDOVWRFNDWWKH EHJLQQLQJRIWKHSHULRGWKHWUHQGYDULDEOHDQGDQLQWHUFHSW=IWUHSUHVHQWV=IWZLWKWKHWUHQG YDULDEOH DQG LQWHUFHSW H[FOXGHG % LV WKH VKRUWUXQ FRHIILFLHQW PDWUL[ DQG ' LV WKH VSHHG RI DGMXVWPHQW PDWUL[ ERWK RI VXLWDEOH GLPHQVLRQVPqI LV D PDWUL[ IXQFWLRQ RI WKH ORQJUXQ FRHIILFLHQWVqILHWKHFRHIILFLHQWVLQXIWLVDYHFWRURIJHQXLQHHUURUVRILQGXVWU\ILQ\HDUW

%HFDXVHWKHFRVWVKDUHVDOZD\VVXPWRXQLW\WKDWLVSL6LIW DQGKHQFHSLD6LIW DQ\FRVW VKDUH HTXDWLRQ FDQ EH H[SUHVVHG LQ WHUPV RI WKH RWKHU HTXDWLRQV E\ XVLQJ WKH DGGLQJ XS UHVWULFWLRQVJLYHQLQ7DEOH)RUHDFKLQGXVWU\WKHHUURUVLQWKHIRXUFRVWVKDUHHTXDWLRQV PXVWDGGWR]HURLQHDFK\HDUZKLFKLPSOLHVDVLQJXODUHUURUFRYDULDQFHPDWUL[(VWLPDWLRQPD\

SURFHHGZLWKWKHGHOHWLRQRIRQHHTXDWLRQFI$QGHUVRQDQG%OXQGHOOZKRJHQHUDOLVHWKH LQYDULDQFH SURSRVLWLRQ RI %HUQGW DQG 6DYLQ DV IDU DV WKH ORQJUXQ FRHIILFLHQWV DUH FRQFHUQHG7KHJHQHUDOV\VWHPWKDWLVHVWLPDWHGLVJLYHQLQDQGDW\SLFDOHTXDWLRQLVJLYHQLQ

$QDOWHUQDWLYHZD\WRLQWURGXFHG\QDPLFIDFWRUGHPDQGVLQWKHOLWHUDWXUHLVWRVSHFLI\DQGLQFOXGHFRVWV RIDGMXVWPHQWIURPFKDQJHVLQTXDVLIL[HGLQSXWVDVH[SOLFLWSURFHVVHV)RUDVXUYH\RIWKLVILHOGVHH -RUJHQVRQVHHDOVR0DKPXGHWDODQG*RUGRQ

(9)

/HW6IQXIQDQGPQqIGHQRWHWKHYHFWRUV6IDQGXIDQGWKHPDWUL[PqIZLWKWKHODVWURZ GHOHWHGUHVSHFWLYHO\,HZHH[FOXGHWKHFRVWVKDUHHTXDWLRQIRUHQHUJ\

D6QIW %QD=IW'Q>6QIWPQqI=IW@XQIW

D6LIW EL6DOQ46IWEL8DOQ48IWEL0DOQ40IWEL(DOQ4(IWEL;DOQ;IWEL.DOQ.IW

GL666IWa6Ib66OQ46IWb68OQ48IWb60OQ40IWb6(OQ4(IW

g6;IOQ;IWg6.IOQ.IWg6tItW

GL868IWa8Ib86OQ46IWb88OQ48IWb80OQ40IWb8(OQ4(IW

g8;IOQ;IWg8.IOQ.IWg8tItW

GL060IWa0Ib06OQ46IWb08OQ48IWb00OQ40IWb0(OQ4(IW

g0;IOQ;IWg0.IOQ.IWg0tItWXLIW

L 680I³{}

7KHRU\UHTXLUHVWKHFRVWVKDUHHTXDWLRQVLQWREHKRPRJHQHRXVRIGHJUHH]HURLQLQSXWSULFHV DQG WKH FURVVSULFH HIIHFWV WR EH V\PPHWULF LQ WKH ORQJUXQ 7KHVH WKHRUHWLFDO UHVWULFWLRQV LQ DGGLWLRQWRWKHDGGLQJXSFRQGLWLRQVVHH7DEOHDUHLPSRVHGRQWKHJHQHUDOPRGHOWKDWZH HVWLPDWH:HPDNHWKHIROORZLQJDVVXPSWLRQVDERXWWKH™YHFWRUXQIW

XQIW >X6IWX8IWX0IW@a1,,'>W@ IRUDOOWDQGI

%H\RQGV\PPHWU\WKHUHDUHQRUHVWULFWLRQVLPSRVHGRQWKHFRYDULDQFHPDWUL[W7KHJHQXLQH HUURUVDUHDVVXPHGWREHKRPRVNHGDVWLFDFURVVLQGXVWULHVDQGQRWDXWRFRUUHODWHGZLWKLQLQGXVWULHV

$W WKH RXWVHW ZH DVVXPH WKDW DOO SULFHV RXWSXW DQG WKH FDSLWDO VWRFN DUH ZHDNO\ H[RJHQRXV +RZHYHUZHWHVWWKHZHDNH[RJHQHLW\DVVXPSWLRQRQZDJHVDQGRXWSXWDWDODWHUVWDJH

7KH ORQJUXQ RZQ DQG FURVVSULFH HODVWLFLWLHV RI IDFWRU GHPDQG DUH JLYHQ EHORZ 7KHVH HODVWLFLWLHVDUHGHILQHGDVWKH6OXWVN\DQDORJXHVLHDVRXWSXWFRQVWUDLQHGSULFHHODVWLFLWLHVRI LQSXWTXDQWLWLHV*UDQWVKRZVWKDWWKHHODVWLFLWLHVRIVXEVWLWXWLRQLQWKHWUDQVORJIXQFWLRQ FDVHPD\EHHYDOXDWHGDWDQ\H[SDQVLRQSRLQWLQFOXGLQJSRLQWVRIVDPSOHPHDQVDVORQJDVWKH UHVWULFWLRQVRI6OXWVN\V\PPHWU\DQGKRPRJHQHLW\KROGFI7DEOH7KHFURVVSULFHHODVWLFLWLHV DUHLQJHQHUDOQRWV\PPHWULF

(10)

eLMI bLM6LI6MI IRULžM eLLI bLL6LI6LI IRUDOOL

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

7DEOH&RHIILFLHQWUHVWULFWLRQVGXHWRWKHDGGLQJXSFRQGLWLRQWKHRUHWLFDOSUHGLFWLRQV VLPSOLILFDWLRQVRIWKHG\QDPLFSURFHVVDQGK\SRWKHVHVZLWKUHVSHFWWRWKH ORQJUXQSDUWRIWKHPRGHOD

SLaLI "I $GGLQJXSFRQGLWLRQ

SLbLM "M $GGLQJXSFRQGLWLRQ

SLgLOI $GGLQJXSFRQGLWLRQ

SMbLM "L 3ULFHKRPRJHQHLW\

bLM bML "LMLžM 6\PPHWU\

ELM ELO =HURUHVWULFWLRQVRQVKRUWUXQHIIHFWV

GLL G "L

GLM "LMLžM

}

6LPSOLILHGDGMXVWPHQWSURFHVV

gLOI gLO "I ,QGXVWU\LQYDULDQWFRHIILFLHQWRQYDULDEOHO

gLOI 7KHFRVWVKDUHRILQSXWLLVLQGHSHQGHQWRIWKHOHYHORIYDULDEOHO

gL;I "L +RPRWKHWLFLW\

gLtI "L +LFNVQHXWUDOLW\

bLM "LM =HURSULFHHIIHFWV

DLM 680(O ;t.I

(11)

:HDUHSULPDULO\FRQFHUQHGDERXWWKHORQJUXQIHDWXUHVRIWKHPRGHODQGZHVWDUWE\UHGXFLQJ WKH PRGHO ZLWK UHVSHFW WR VKRUWUXQ HIIHFWV LH LQVLJQLILFDQW VKRUWUXQ FRHIILFLHQWV ELM DUH UHVWULFWHG WR ]HUR 7KHQ ZH FRQWLQXH E\ WHVWLQJ YDULRXV UHVWULFWLRQV RQ WKH RXWSXW WUHQG DQG FDSLWDOFRHIILFLHQWVERWK]HURUHVWULFWLRQVDQGWKHUHVWULFWLRQWKDWWKHFRHIILFLHQWVDUHFRPPRQWR DOORUVRPHLQGXVWULHV)LQDOO\ZHVHHLIZHFDQVLPSOLI\WKHDGMXVWPHQWSURFHVVGLM

,IDOOFRVWVKDUHVDUHLQGHSHQGHQWRIWKHRXWSXWOHYHOZHFRQFOXGHWKDWWKHSURGXFWLRQWHFKQRORJ\

LVKRPRWKHWLFDQGIDFWRUUDWLRVUHPDLQFRQVWDQWZKHQWKHOHYHORIRXWSXWFKDQJHV+RPRWKHWLFLW\

LQDGGLWLRQWRWKHDEVHQFHRISULFHHIIHFWVLPSO\D&REE'RXJODVSURGXFWLRQWHFKQRORJ\$VLQ -RUJHQVRQZHGHILQHDSRVLWLYHQHJDWLYHHIIHFWRIRXWSXWJURZWKRQDFRVWVKDUHDVD SRVLWLYHQHJDWLYHVFDOHELDV

:HDUHSDUWLFXODUO\LQWHUHVWHGLQWHVWLQJZKHWKHUWHFKQLFDOSURJUHVVLV+LFNVQHXWUDORUELDVHGLQ IDYRXURIVNLOOHGODERXU7HFKQLFDOFKDQJHLVQHXWUDOLILWOHDYHVFRVWVKDUHVDQGKHQFHLQSXW UDWLRVXQFKDQJHGZKHQUHODWLYHIDFWRUSULFHVWKHRXWSXWOHYHODQGWKHFDSLWDOVWRFNDUHFRQVWDQW ,IWHFKQLFDOFKDQJHLQFUHDVHVWKHUHODWLYHFRVWVKDUHVEHWZHHQVNLOOHGDQGXQVNLOOHGLHLI

›(66I68I)›t g6tI¼68Ig8tI¼66I68I>

ZHGHILQHWKLVDVVNLOOHGELDVHGWHFKQLFDOFKDQJH+HQFHLIg6tI!DQGg8tI<RULIg6tI!g8tI! DQG 66I< 68I WKHVH DUH VXIILFLHQW FRQGLWLRQV IRU VNLOOHGELDVHG WHFKQLFDO FKDQJH :H DOVR GHQRWHWKHWHFKQRORJ\DVLQSXWLXVLQJRUVDYLQJGHSHQGHQWRQZKHWKHUgLtI!RUgLtI<7KLVLV FRQVLVWHQWZLWKWKHWHUPLQRORJ\LQ)LW]HQEHUJHU

:LWKLQ WKH FKRVHQ IUDPHZRUN ZH FDQ DOVR VWXG\ WKH HIIHFW RQ UHODWLYH ODERXU GHPDQG IURP FKDQJHVLQWKHFDSLWDOVWRFN,Ig6.I!DQGg8.I<RULIg6.I!g8.I!DQG66I<68IWKHVNLOOHG XQVNLOOHGODERXUUDWLRLQFUHDVHVZLWKFDSLWDOVWRFN,Ig6.I g8.I WKHWZRODERXUFRVWVKDUHV DUHLQGHSHQGHQWRIWKHFDSDFLW\

(12)

(PSLULFDOUHVXOWV

:HQRZSUHVHQWWKHUHVXOWVIURPHVWLPDWLQJWKHG\QDPLFV\VWHP7KHFRVWVKDUHHTXDWLRQIRU HQHUJ\ LV RPLWWHG :H XVH LQGXVWU\OHYHO SDQHO GDWD IURP 1RUZHJLDQ QDWLRQDO DFFRXQWV LQ DGGLWLRQWRGDWDRQPDQKRXUVZDJHVDQGHGXFDWLRQSURYLGHGE\6WDWLVWLFV1RUZD\2XUSDQHO LQFOXGHV VL[ LQGXVWULHV ZLWK DQQXDO REVHUYDWLRQV RYHU WKH SHULRG )RU HVWLPDWLRQ SXUSRVHVZHFRQVWUXFWV\QWKHWLFWLPHVHULHVE\VWDFNLQJWLPHVHULHVRIWKHGLIIHUHQWLQGXVWULHV,I

<IGHQRWHVDFROXPQYHFWRUFRQWDLQLQJDOOWKHGDWDRQYDULDEOH<LQLQGXVWU\IWKHVWDFNHGYHFWRU LVVLPSO\REWDLQHGE\< YHF<<<<<<ZKHUHYHFGHQRWHVWKHFROXPQVWDFNLQJ RSHUDWRU6LQFHWKHPRGHOVSHFLILFDWLRQLQFOXGHVIL[HGKHWHURJHQHLW\DFURVVLQGXVWULHVZHQHHGWR LQWURGXFHLQGXVWU\VSHFLILFGXPP\YDULDEOHVGXHWRWKHVWDFNLQJRIWKHGDWD7KHYDULDEOHVDUH GHILQHGLQ$SSHQGL[ZKLOH$SSHQGL[JLYHVJUDSKVRIVRPHLPSRUWDQWYDULDEOHV

0D[LPXPOLNHOLKRRGHVWLPDWLRQRIWKHG\QDPLFFRVWVKDUHHTXDWLRQV\VWHPLVLPSOHPHQWHGE\

XVLQJWKH/64SURFHGXUHLQ763>FI+DOO@7KLVURXWLQHLVFRQYHQLHQWLQRXUVLWXDWLRQ ZLWK QRQOLQHDULW\ LQ FRHIILFLHQWV DV ZHOO DV FURVVHTXDWLRQ FRHIILFLHQW UHVWULFWLRQV 7R REWDLQ PD[LPXPOLNHOLKRRGHVWLPDWHVRIWKHFRHIILFLHQWVLQWKHV\VWHPDWLFSDUWRIWKHPRGHOZHKDYHWR XSGDWHWKHHVWLPDWHGFRYDULDQFHPDWUL[RIWKHJHQXLQHHUURUVXQWLOFRQYHUJHQFHFI%HUQGWHWDO 7KHOLNHOLKRRGUDWLRWHVW/5WHVWLVDSSOLHGWRWHVWFRHIILFLHQWUHVWULFWLRQV

7DEOH JLYHV RYHUDOO VWDWLVWLFV RI WKH FRVW VKDUHV RI WKH YDULDEOH LQSXWV LQ 1RUZHJLDQ PDQXIDFWXULQJ$FFRUGLQJWRWKHHPSLULFDOPHDQVWKHLQSXWVKDUHRIPDWHULDOVLVZHOODERYHWKH RWKHUYDULDEOHLQSXWVDQGWKHFRVWVKDUHRIVNLOOHGODERXULVRQO\KDOIRIWKDWRIXQVNLOOHGODERXU +RZHYHUZKLOHWKHDYHUDJHFRVWVKDUHZDVIRUVNLOOHGDQGIRUXQVNLOOHGODERXULQ E\WKHVHVKDUHVKDGLQFUHDVHGWRDQGGHFUHDVHGWRUHVSHFWLYHO\

7DEOH&RVWVKDUHVLQWKHIRXUYDULDEOHLQSXWFDVHLQ1RUZHJLDQPDQXIDFWXULQJ 0HDQ 6WGHY 0LQLPXP 0D[LPXP 6NLOOHGODERXU

8QVNLOOHGODERXU 0DWHULDOV (QHUJ\

7KHYDULDWLRQDFURVVLQGXVWULHVLQFRVWVKDUHVDQGVRPHRWKHUVHOHFWHGYDULDEOHVLVLOOXVWUDWHGLQ 7DEOH7KHWDEOHVKRZVLPSRUWDQWYDULDWLRQDFURVVLQGXVWULHV7KH1$6(FODVVLILFDWLRQRI WKHLQGXVWULHVLVJLYHQLQ$SSHQGL[

(13)

7DEOH(PSLULFDOPHDQRIVHOHFWHGYDULDEOHVDQGVKDUHRIPDQXIDFWXULQJHPSOR\PHQW RYHU

9DUL DEOH

$OOLQGX VWULHV

)RRG EHYHUDJHV WH[WLOHV

0LVFHOODQ HRXVPDQX

IDFWXULQJ

3DSHU SXOS

,QGXVWULDO FKHPLFDOV

%DVLF PHWDOV

0DFKLQ HU\

I I I I I I I

66

68

60

6(

OQ46

OQ48

OQ40

OQ4(

OQ;

OQ.

696

698

6LLVWKHFRVWVKDUHRILQSXWL4LLVWKHSULFHRILQSXWLL 680(;LVUHDOJURVVRXWSXW.LV UHDOFDSLWDOVWRFN69LLVWKHLQGXVWU\¶VVKDUHRIWRWDOPDQXIDFWXULQJHPSOR\PHQWPHDVXUHGLQ PDQKRXUVRIFDWHJRU\L 68

7KHLQGXVWULHV3DSHU SXOS,QGXVWULDOFKHPLFDOVDQG%DVLFPHWDOVKDYHLPSRUWDQWIHDWXUHVLQ FRPPRQ7KH\DUHKLJKO\H[SRUWRULHQWHGHPSOR\RQO\DPLQRUVKDUHRIWRWDOPDQXIDFWXULQJ PDQSRZHUDQGWKH\SURGXFHODUJHO\LQGXVWULDOUDZPDWHULDOV:LWKUHVSHFWWRWKHUHPDLQLQJ WKUHH LQGXVWULHV ZKLFK HPSOR\ PRVW RI WKH PDQXIDFWXULQJ PDQSRZHU )RRG EHYHUDJHV WH[WLOHVDQG0LVFHOODQHRXVPDQXIDFWXULQJSURGXFHPDLQO\FRQVXPHUJRRGVZKLOH0DFKLQHU\

SURGXFHVPRUHLQYHVWPHQWJRRGV:HWHVWLIWKHVHWZRVXEJURXSVRILQGXVWULHVKDYHFRPPRQ FRHIILFLHQWV RQ ; . DQG t EHIRUH WHVWLQJ LI WKHVH FRHIILFLHQWV DUH FRPPRQ DFURVV DOO LQGXVWULHV7KHFRPPRQDFURVVDOOLQGXVWULHVK\SRWKHVHVDUHFOHDUO\UHMHFWHGE\WKH/5WHVW KRZHYHU

(14)

7KHHVWLPDWHGPDLQWDLQHGPRGHO

7DEOH&RHIILFLHQWHVWLPDWHVRIWKHPDLQWDLQHGFRVWVKDUHHTXDWLRQVPRGHO /RQJUXQ

FRHIILFLHQWV (VWLPDWHV &RQVWDQW

WHUPV (VWLPDWHV 6KRUWUXQ

FRHII (VWLPDWHV

b66 D a6 E66

b60 a6 E68

b88 a6 E60

b80 E a6 E6( D

b86 F a6 E88

b00 D a6 E86 D

g6;II D a8 E80

g6;II a8 E8( D

g8;II D a8 E06 D

g8;II a8 E08

g8;II a8 E00

g0;II D a8 E0(

g0;II a0 E6;

g6.II D a0 E6. D

g6.II a0 E8;

g6.II a0 E8. D

g8.II a0 E0;

g8.II a0 E0. D

g8.II D GG

g8.II

g8.II

g0.II

g0.II D g6tII D

g6tII

g8tII

g8tII D g8tII

g8tII

g0tII D g0tII

g0tII

(VWSHULRG 65

6(5 85

6(5 05

0D[LPXPOLNHOLKRRGHVWLPDWLRQ6WDQGDUGHUURUVLQSDUHQWKHVHV7KHPXOWLSOHFRUUHODWLRQFRHI6(5 ILFLHQW5DQGWKHHTXDWLRQVWDQGDUGHUURU6(5DUHJLYHQIRUWKHHVWLPDWHGFRVWVKDUHHTXD WLRQV6 VNLOOHGODERXU8 XQVNLOOHGODERXU0 PDWHULDOVIGHQRWHVLQGXVWU\VHH7DEOH

D7KHFRHIILFLHQWLVUHVWULFWHGWR]HURDSULRUL

E$SULRULUHVWULFWLRQb80 b60

F$SULRULUHVWULFWLRQb86 ¼b88

G$SULRULUHVWULFWLRQVGLM LM 680LžMGLM GL 680

(15)

7KH FRVWVKDUH HTXDWLRQ RI HQHUJ\ LV QRW LQFOXGHG LQ 7DEOH EXW WKH ORQJUXQ SDUW RI WKLV HTXDWLRQFDQHDVLO\EHIRXQGE\XVLQJWKHDGGLQJXSFRQGLWLRQVLQ7DEOH,QWKHIROORZLQJ GLVFXVVLRQZHFRQFHQWUDWHRQWKHORQJUXQUHVXOWV7KHUHVWULFWLRQVRQWKHSULFHFRHIILFLHQWVLQ 7DEOHZLOOEHGLVFXVVHGLQFRQQHFWLRQZLWKWKHSULFHHODVWLFLWLHV

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

+LFNVQHXWUDOWHFKQLFDOFKDQJHLVUHMHFWHGDQGVRLVDOVRWKHVXEK\SRWKHVLVWKDWWKHFRVWVKDUHV RIWKHWZRODERXUFDWHJRULHVDUHXQDIIHFWHGE\WHFKQLFDO FKDQJH:LWK WKH H[FHSWLRQ RI )RRG EHYHUDJHV WH[WLOHV ZH ILQGFOHDUHYLGHQFHRIVNLOOHGELDVHGWHFKQLFDO FKDQJH LQ 1RUZHJLDQ PDQXIDFWXULQJ LHg6tI>g8tI DW WKHVDPHWLPHDV66I< 68I $QG IXUWKHUPRUH DJDLQ ZLWKWKH H[FHSWLRQRI)RRGEHYHUDJHV WH[WLOHVZHILQGVNLOOHGXVLQJWHFKQLFDOFKDQJHLQDOOLQGXVWULHV LHg6tI>7KHUHVXOWVLPSO\XQVNLOOHGVDYLQJWHFKQLFDOFKDQJHLQRQHLQGXVWU\RQO\ZKLFKLV WKHUHODWLYHODERXULQWHQVLYH0DFKLQHU\LQGXVWU\,QWZRLQGXVWULHVZHILQGLQIDFWHYLGHQFHIRU XQVNLOOHGXVLQJWHFKQLFDOFKDQJH

7KHHVWLPDWHGWUHQGHIIHFWVKRXOGEHLQWHUSUHWHGZLWKVRPHFDUHKRZHYHUVLQFHWKHWUHQGPD\

SLFNXSRWKHUHIIHFWVWKDQWHFKQLFDOFKDQJH)RUH[DPSOHD³VXSSO\FUHDWHVLWVRZQGHPDQG´W\SH RI DUJXPHQW KDV EHHQ SXW IRUZDUG DQG $FHPRJOX SUHVHQWV D WKHRU\ WKDW SUHGLFWV WKDW

(16)

GHPDQGIRUVNLOOHGZRUNHUVPD\ZHOOLQFUHDVHDVDUHVXOWRILQFUHDVHGVXSSO\RIVNLOOHGZRUNHUV ,ILPSRUWDQWWKLVPD\LQIOXHQFHRXUHVWLPDWHGWUHQGHIIHFWVVLQFHWKHQXPEHURIVNLOOHGSHUVRQV LQ1RUZD\KDVLQFUHDVHGUDSLGO\GXULQJWKHODVWGHFDGHV2QWKHRWKHUKDQGDUHODWLYHO\VPDOO DQGHYHQGHFOLQLQJVKDUHRIDOOVNLOOHGZRUNHUVLQ1RUZD\LV HPSOR\HG E\ WKHPDQXIDFWXULQJ LQGXVWULHVWKHVKDUHKDVGHFUHDVHGIURPSHUFHQWLQWRSHUFHQWLQ'XHWRWKLV ZHDVVXPHWKHDUJXPHQWDERYHWREHOHVVLPSRUWDQWIRURXUDQDO\VLVWKDQLIZHKDGPRGHOOHG ODERXUGHPDQGRIWKHZKROHHFRQRP\

:H WHVWWKH ZHDN H[RJHQHLW\ DVVXPSWLRQ RQ ZDJHV DV ZHOO DV RQ RXWSXW ODWHU LQ WKLV SDSHU KRZHYHU:HDOVRWHVWWKHYDOLGLW\RIWKHFRHIILFLHQWUHVWULFWLRQVRIWKHPDLQWDLQHGPRGHO

3ULFHHODVWLFLWLHV

,Q 7DEOH ZH SUHVHQW WKH ORQJUXQ RZQSULFH DQG FURVVSULFH HODVWLFLWLHV SUHGLFWHG E\ WKH PRGHOLQ7DEOHDWWKHRYHUDOOHPSLULFDOVDPSOHPHDQVIRUWKHFRVWVKDUHV7KHVWDQGDUGHUURUV DUHFDOFXODWHGDWWKHSUHGLFWHGVDPSOHPHDQVFI7RHYV

7DEOH 2ZQDQGFURVVSULFHHODVWLFLWLHVLQWKHPDLQWDLQHGPRGHOFDOFXODWHGDWWKH RYHUDOOHPSLULFDOPHDQRIWKHFRVWVKDUHVD

2ZQSULFHHODVWLFLWLHV (VWLPDWH &URVVSULFHHODVWLFLWLHV (VWLPDWH

e66 e68

e88 e86

e00 e60

e(( e06

e6(

e(6

e80

e08

e8(

e(8

e0(

e(0

D6WDQGDUGHUURUVLQSDUHQWKHVHV(YDOXDWHGDWWKHSUHGLFWHGFRVWVKDUHVZKHUHWKHREVHUYHG YDULDEOHVDUHUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKHLURYHUDOOHPSLULFDOPHDQVE\XWLOLVLQJWKH$1$/<=

URXWLQHLQ763

(17)

7DEOHVKRZVWKDWDOORZQSULFHHODVWLFLWLHVHYDOXDWHGDWVDPSOHPHDQVKDYHWKHFRUUHFWVLJQ 7KLVLVWUXHIRUDOOVDPSOHSRLQWVDQG RXU PDLQWDLQHGPRGHO VDWLVI\ WKH ³FRQFDYLW\ LQ SULFHV´

FRQGLWLRQ :LWKRXW WKH UHVWULFWLRQV RQ WKH SULFH FRHIILFLHQWV b80 DQGb86 ZH KDYH VRPH SUREOHPV ZLWK WKH RZQSULFH HODVWLFLW\ RI HQHUJ\ KRZHYHU DQG WKH ³FRQFDYLW\ LQ SULFHV´

FRQGLWLRQLVYLRODWHG$VVKRZQODWHUWKHVHUHVWULFWLRQVDUHQRWUHMHFWHGE\WKH/5WHVW

$FFRUGLQJWRRXUUHVXOWVWKHGHPDQGIRUXQVNLOOHGODERXULVFOHDUO\HODVWLFZKLOHWKHGHPDQGIRU PDWHULDOVLQSXWLVLQHODVWLF7KHRZQSULFHHODVWLFLWLHVIRUVNLOOHGODERXUDQGHQHUJ\DUHFORVHWR PLQXVRQH7KHFURVVSULFHHODVWLFLWLHVEHWZHHQVNLOOHGODERXUDQGERWKPDWHULDOVDQGHQHUJ\DUH QRWVLJQLILFDQWO\GLIIHUHQWIURP]HURZKLFKPHDQVWKDWWKHGHPDQGIRUVNLOOHGODERXUDQGWKHVH WZRRWKHULQSXWVDUHRQDYHUDJHLQGHSHQGHQW7KHGHPDQGIRUXQVNLOOHGODERXULVDSSUR[LPDWHO\

LQGHSHQGHQWRIFKDQJHVLQWKHHQHUJ\SULFH7KHSRVLWLYHDQGVLJQLILFDQWFURVVSULFHHODVWLFLWLHV EHWZHHQXQVNLOOHGODERXUDQGPDWHULDOVZKLFKLPSOLHVWKDWWKHVHLQSXWVDUHVXEVWLWXWHVGHVHUYH VRPH FRPPHQWV 0DWHULDOV LQFOXGH VHUYLFHV DQG VXEFRQWUDFWLQJ DQG WKH GHJUHH RI ODERXU PDWHULDOV VXEVWLWXWLRQ FDQ WKHUHIRUH SURYLGH LQIRUPDWLRQ RQ RXWVRXUFLQJ RU RXWFRQWUDFWLQJ ,QWHUSUHWHG ZLWKLQ WKLV FRQWH[W WKH UHVXOWV VXJJHVW WKDW XQVNLOOHG ODERXU PD\ ZHOO KDYH EHHQ RXWVRXUFHGZKLOHVNLOOHGODERXUKDVQRW

:LWKWKHH[FHSWLRQRIWKHLQVLJQLILFDQWFURVVSULFHHODVWLFLWLHVEHWZHHQVNLOOHGODERXUDQGHQHUJ\

DOOYDULDEOHLQSXWVDUHVXEVWLWXWHVLQGHPDQG)XUWKHUPRUHWKHFURVVSULFHHODVWLFLWLHVLPSO\WKDW WKHVXEVWLWXWLRQHIIHFWRQVNLOOHGODERXUIURPDQLQFUHDVHLQXQVNLOOHGZDJHVLVODUJHUWKDQWKH VXEVWLWXWLRQHIIHFWRQXQVNLOOHGODERXUIURPDQLQFUHDVHLQVNLOOHGZDJHV

$GHFRPSRVLWLRQRIWKHVKLIWLQUHODWLYHODERXUGHPDQG

:H ZLOO QRZ IRFXVRQ WKH GHYHORSPHQWLQWKHVNLOOHGODERXU VKDUH PHDVXUHGDVVNLOOHG PDQ KRXUVLQSHUFHQWRIWRWDOPDQKRXUVLHDVÂ969698ZKLFKUHIOHFWVWKHVKLIWLQUHODWLYH ODERXUGHPDQG$FFRUGLQJWR)LJXUHDOOLQGXVWULHVKDYHLQFUHDVHGWKHLUGHPDQGIRUVNLOOHG ODERXUUHODWLYHWRXQVNLOOHGRYHUWLPH:KLOHWKHVNLOOHGODERXUVKDUHLQ,QGXVWULDOFKHPLFDOVLV KLJKHUWKDQLQWKHRWKHULQGXVWULHVRYHUWKHZKROHVDPSOHSHULRG)RRGEHYHUDJHV WH[WLOHVLV SHUPDQHQWO\DWWKHERWWRP

(18)

)LJXUH6NLOOHGPDQKRXUVLQSHUFHQWRIWRWDOPDQKRXUVLQGLIIHUHQWLQGXVWULHV

1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 0

10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Food, bever. & text.

Miscellaneous manuf.

Paper & pulp Chemicals

Metals Machinery

7RJHWDEHWWHUXQGHUVWDQGLQJRIKRZWKHYDULRXVH[SODQDWRU\YDULDEOHVKDYHFRQWULEXWHGWRWKH FKDQJHLQWKHVNLOOHGODERXUVKDUHDQGKHQFHWRWKHFKDQJHLQUHODWLYHODERXUGHPDQGDQXPEHU RIVLPXODWLRQVKDYHEHHQFRQGXFWHGRQRXUPDLQWDLQHGFRVWVKDUHHTXDWLRQVPRGHOLQ7DEOH 6WDUWLQJWKHVLPXODWLRQVLQZHOHWDVXEVHWRIH[SODQDWRU\YDULDEOHVIROORZWKHLUKLVWRULFDO SDWKZKLOHDOOWKHRWKHUH[SODQDWRU\YDULDEOHVDUHNHSWFRQVWDQWDWWKHLUYDOXHV7KHUHVXOWV IURPWKHVHG\QDPLFVLPXODWLRQVDUHVXPPDULVHGLQ7DEOH

7RDYRLGWKHHIIHFWRILQLWLDOHUURUWHUPVRQWKHVLPXODWLRQVWKHPRGHOLVLQWHUFHSWFRUUHFWHGVXFKWKDW LWILWVSHUIHFWO\LQWKHLQLWLDOVLPXODWLRQ\HDU

(19)

7DEOH 0RGHOSUHGLFWHGHIIHFWVRQWKHVNLOOHGODERXUVKDUHLQSHUFHQWIURPFKDQJHV LQGLIIHUHQWH[SODQDWRU\YDULDEOHV6LPXODWHGVNLOOHGODERXUVKDUHVLQD 1RQFRQVWDQW

YDULDEOH $OOLQGX

VWULHVE )RRG EHYHUDJHV WH[WLOHV

0LVFHO IDFWXULQJPDQX

3DSHU

SXOS ,QGXVWULDO FKHPL

FDOV

%DVLF

PHWDOV 0DFKLQ HU\

7UXH

6KDUH

46DQG48

4LL 680(

t

.

;

$OOYDULDEOHV

D7KHVLPXODWLRQVDUHG\QDPLFRYHU$VXEVHWRIH[SODQDWRU\YDULDEOHVIROORZWKHLU KLVWRULFDOSDWKZKLOHWKHUHPDLQLQJDUHNHSWFRQVWDQWDWWKHLUYDOXHV7KHPRGHOLVDG MXVWHGDFFRUGLQJWRWKHHUURUWHUPVLQ7KHVLPXODWHGVNLOOHGODERXUVKDUHLVIRXQGE\

XVLQJWKHLGHQWLW\¼96>9698@Ÿ¼66>664648¼68@

E(DFKLQGXVWU\LVZHLJKWHGDFFRUGLQJWRLWVDFWXDOVKDUHRIWRWDOPDQXIDFWXULQJHPSOR\PHQW PDQKRXUV

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³ZDJHFKDQJH´ VLPXODWLRQ URZ ZLWK WKH UHVXOWV IURPWKHVLPXODWLRQZKHUHDOOSULFHVDUHDOORZHGWRIROORZWKHLUKLVWRULFDOSDWKURZ,QWKH ODWWHU FDVH WKH LQFUHDVHV LQ WKH VNLOOHGODERXU VKDUHV DUH PXFK VPDOOHU WKDQ LQ WKH ³ZDJH FKDQJH´VLPXODWLRQV6WLOOWKHWRWDOSULFHHIIHFWRQUHODWLYHVNLOOHGXQVNLOOHGODERXUGHPDQGLV SRVLWLYHDQGLPSRUWDQWLQDOOLQGXVWULHVFRPSDUHURZDQG

:LWK WKH H[FHSWLRQ RI )RRG EHYHUDJHV WH[WLOHV WHFKQLFDO FKDQJH URZ KDV FOHDUO\

FRQWULEXWHGWRWKHLQFUHDVHLQWKHVNLOOHGODERXUVKDUH/RRNLQJDWWKHDJJUHJDWHGHIIHFWDFURVV DOOLQGXVWULHVWKHVNLOOHGODERXUVKDUHZKLFKLVSHUFHQWLQLQFUHDVHVWRSHU

(20)

FHQWGXHWRWHFKQLFDOFKDQJH+HQFHWKHHIIHFWRIWHFKQLFDOFKDQJHLVFORVHWRWKHWRWDOHIIHFW RISULFHFKDQJHV

&DSLWDO VWRFN URZ KDV FRQWULEXWHG SRVLWLYHO\ WR WKH VNLOOHGODERXU VKDUH 7KH LPSDFW LV UHODWLYHO\ ELJ LQ DOO WKH ODERXU LQWHQVLYH LQGXVWULHV LH )RRG EHYHUDJHV WH[WLOHV 0LVFHOODQHRXVPDQXIDFWXULQJDQG0DFKLQHU\ZKLOHWKHLPSDFWLVUHODWLYHO\VPDOOLQWKHOHVV ODERXU LQWHQVLYH UDZPDWHULDOV SURGXFLQJ LQGXVWULHV )RU WRWDO PDQXIDFWXULQJ WKH LVRODWHG HIIHFW RI WKH REVHUYHG JURZWK LQ FDSLWDO VWRFN LV DQ DOPRVW GRXEOLQJ RI WKH VNLOOHGODERXU VKDUH

7KHHIIHFWRIRXWSXWJURZWKLVLQJHQHUDOQRWYHU\VWURQJURZ+HQFHQRQKRPRWKHWLFLW\

LVQRWYHU\LPSRUWDQWIRUUHODWLYHODERXUGHPDQGDFFRUGLQJWRWKHVHUHVXOWV7KHH[FHSWLRQLV ,QGXVWULDOFKHPLFDOVIRUZKLFKWKHLVRODWHGHIIHFWRIWKHRXWSXWJURZWKLVDVLJQLILFDQWGHFOLQH LQWKHVNLOOHGODERXUVKDUH+RZHYHUZLWKUHVSHFWWRWKLVLQGXVWU\WKHG\QDPLFVSHFLILFDWLRQ LVSUREOHPDWLF:KHQFRQGXFWLQJVLPXODWLRQVRQWKHORQJUXQSDUWRIWKHPRGHORQO\ZHJHW UHVXOWVWKDWGLIIHUVIURPWKRVHUHSRUWHGLQ7DEOH,QWKLVFDVHRXWSXWLVRIOLWWOHLPSRUWDQFH DQGWKH³$OOYDULDEOHV´VLPXODWLRQJLYHVDSUHGLFWHGVNLOOHGODERXUVKDUHRIDOPRVWSHUFHQW ZKLFKLVPXFKFORVHUWRWKHDFWXDOVKDUHLQ7KLVPD\VXJJHVWWKDWWKHG\QDPLFHIIHFWVDW OHDVW WR VRPH GHJUHH VKRXOG KDYH EHHQ LQGXVWU\ VSHFLILF DQG QRW FRPPRQ +RZHYHU D JHQHUDOLVDWLRQRIWKHPRGHOZLWKUHVSHFWWRWKHVKRUWUXQHIIHFWVZRXOGHVFDODWHRXUGHJUHHVRI IUHHGRPSUREOHPVLQFHWKHPRGHODOUHDG\FRQWDLQVUHODWLYHO\PDQ\FRHIILFLHQWV7KHUHIRUHDV H[SODLQHGHDUOLHURXUIRFXVRUSULPDU\LQWHUHVWLVPRUHRQWKHORQJUXQWKDQRQWKHVKRUWUXQ HODVWLFLWLHV

9DOLGLW\RIFRHIILFLHQWUHVWULFWLRQV

&RPSDUHG WR RXU PRVW JHQHUDO PRGHO WKH PDLQWDLQHG PRGHO LQ 7DEOH LQFOXGHV FRHIILFLHQWUHVWULFWLRQVRIZKLFKDUH]HURUHVWULFWLRQV6LQFHWKHYDOLGLW\RIUHVWULFWLRQVLV WHVWHGDWGLIIHUHQWVWDJHVLQWKHUHGXFWLRQSURFHVVDVH[SODLQHGLQWKHSUHYLRXVVHFWLRQWKLV SURFHVV LV FRPSOLFDWHG WR VXPPDULVH +RZHYHU DV D ILQDO VWDJH LQ RXU PRGHO VHDUFK ZH DFFRPSOLVKD³VSHFLILFWRJHQHUDO´WHVWLQJSURFHGXUH7KHUHVWULFWLRQVDUHRUJDQLVHGLQVHYHQ VXEVHWVDQGWKHUREXVWQHVVRIHDFKVXEVHWDQGVRPHFRPELQDWLRQVRIVXEVHWVLVFKHFNHGE\

WHVWLQJWKHUHVWULFWHGPDLQWDLQHGPRGHOLQ7DEOH+0YHUVXVWKH DOWHUQDWLYHDQGPRUH JHQHUDOPRGHO+$UVUV V˜U7KHDOWHUQDWLYHPRGHO+$UVLVGHILQHGDVWKHPDLQWDLQHG PRGHOZLWKRXWWKHUHVWULFWLRQVFODVVLILHGLQVXEVHWVUV7KHVXEVHWVRIUHVWULFWLRQVDUHJLYHQLQ 7DEOH

(21)

7DEOH7KHUHVWULFWLRQVRQWKHPDLQWDLQHGPRGHOLQ7DEOHVRUWHGLQVXEVHWV 6XEVHW 5HVWULFWLRQV

E6( E86 E8( E06 EL. L 680

g6; g6;I g6;I g8; g8; g8;g8;I g8;I g0;I I g0;I g0;I

g6t g6tI g6;I g8tI g8tII g0tI I g0t g0t

g6.I I g6; g6.g6; g6.g8. g8.g8.

g0.I g0.I g0;I I bLL L 80

b80 b60b86 ¼b88

GLM LM 680LžMGLL GL 680

7DEOH FRQWDLQV WKH XQFRUUHFWHG DQG FRUUHFWHG /5VWDWLVWLFV DQG DVVRFLDWHG VLJQLILFDQFH SUREDELOLWLHV IURP WHVWLQJ WKH PDLQWDLQHG PRGHO YHUVXV PRUH JHQHUDO DOWHUQDWLYH PRGHOV GHILQHGE\WKHVXEVHWVRIUHVWULFWLRQVLQ7DEOH

7DEOH/LNHOLKRRGUDWLRWHVWVRIWKHPDLQWDLQHGPRGHOLQ7DEOHDJDLQVWPRUHIOH[L EOHVSHFLILFDWLRQVD

7HVW $OWHUQDWLYH

PRGHO+$UVE /5Q5 6LJQLILFDQFH

3UREDELOLW\ /56,Q5 6LJQLILFDQFH SUREDELOLW\

+$

+$

+$

+$

+$

+$

+$

+$

+$

+$

D/5LVWKHVWDQGDUGOLNHOLKRRGUDWLRWHVWVWDWLVWLFQ5LVWKHQXPEHURIUHVWULFWLRQV/56,GHQRWHV WKHVPDOOVDPSOHFRUUHFWHG/5YDOXHIROORZLQJWKHVXJJHVWLRQE\,WDOLDQHUDQGLVJLYHQ E\/56, P,/5P, >S7Q$Q0SS@ZKHUHSLVWKHQXPEHURIHTXDWLRQV7LVWKH WRWDOQXPEHURIREVHUYDWLRQVQ$LVWKHQXPEHURIFRHIILFLHQWVXQGHUWKHDOWHUQDWLYHK\SRWKHVLV DQGQ0LVWKHQXPEHURIFRHIILFLHQWVXQGHUWKHPDLQWDLQHGK\SRWKHVLV

E&RQIHU7DEOH

(22)

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

7HVWLQJIRUZHDNH[RJHQHLW\

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

%DVHGRQWKHWKUHHHVWLPDWHGPDUJLQDOHTXDWLRQVZHGHULYHWKUHHYHFWRUVRIUHVLGXDOVWKDWZH LQFOXGHLQRXUPDLQWDLQHGPRGHOLQ7DEOH:HWHVWZKHWKHUWKHVHDGGLWLRQDOYDULDEOHVDUH VLJQLILFDQWLQWKHG\QDPLFIDFWRUGHPDQGV\VWHPE\XVLQJDVWDQGDUG/5WHVW7KHYDOXHRIWKH /5VWDWLVWLF FRUUHVSRQGV WR D VLJQLILFDQFH SUREDELOLW\ RI DERXW +RZHYHU D PRUH WKRURXJK LQYHVWLJDWLRQ UHYHDOV WKDW WKH ORZ VLJQLILFDQFH SUREDELOLW\ VWHPV IURP WKH FRQWULEXWLRQ RI WKH UHVLGXDOV RI WKH PDUJLQDO RXWSXW HTXDWLRQ ,QFOXGLQJ RQO\ WKH UHVLGXDOV

:HWKDQN5RJHU%M¡UQVWDGIRUSURYLGLQJXVZLWKWKHHVWLPDWLRQUHVXOWVIRUWKHZDJHHTXDWLRQV

(23)

IURP WKH ZDJHHTXDWLRQV ZH REWDLQ D /5YDOXH HTXDO WR DQG DFFRUGLQJ WR WKHc GLVWULEXWLRQWKHK\SRWKHVLVRIZHDNH[RJHQHLW\RIZDJHVLVFOHDUO\VXSSRUWHG+RZHYHUZKHQ ZHRQO\LQFOXGHWKHUHVLGXDOVIURPWKHPDUJLQDORXWSXWHTXDWLRQZHJHWD/5YDOXHRI ZKLFK JLYHV D VLJQLILFDQFH SUREDELOLW\ RI XVLQJ WKHcGLVWULEXWLRQ 7KXV WKH DVVXPSWLRQWKDWWKHRXWSXWYDULDEOHLVZHDNO\H[RJHQHRXVLVSUREOHPDWLF,QOLJKWRIWKLVZH HVWLPDWHRXUPDLQWDLQHGPRGHOZLWKDQLWHUDWHG6/6SURFHGXUHWDNLQJFDUHRIWKHSRWHQWLDO ODFNRIZHDNH[RJHQHLW\RIWKHRXWSXWYDULDEOH7KHGHWDLOHGUHVXOWVDUHJLYHQLQ$SSHQGL[

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

(24)

&RQFOXVLRQV

8VLQJDPXOWLYDULDWHHUURUFRUUHFWLRQPRGHORIWKHFRVWVKDUHVRIVNLOOHGDQGXQVNLOOHGODERXU PDWHULDOV DQG HQHUJ\ WKH LQFUHDVH LQ GHPDQG IRU VNLOOHG UHODWLYH WR XQVNLOOHG ODERXU LV DQDO\VHG3DQHOGDWDIURP1RUZHJLDQPDQXIDFWXULQJLVDSSOLHG)RFXVLVRQWKHLPSRUWDQFHRI QRQQHXWUDOWHFKQLFDOFKDQJHVXEVWLWXWLRQGXHWRFKDQJHVLQZDJHVDQGSULFHVWKHHIIHFWRI FDSLWDOVWRFNJURZWKKRPRWKHWLFLW\LQWKHSURGXFWLRQIXQFWLRQDQGLQGXVWU\VWUXFWXUH

7KHVNLOOHGELDVHGWHFKQLFDOFKDQJHK\SRWKHVLVLVVXSSRUWHGE\WKHUHVXOWV)LUVWZHILQGDVLQ VKLIWVKDUHDQDO\VHVRIRWKHU2(&'FRXQWULHVWKDWPRVWRIWKHLQFUHDVHLQWKHUHODWLYHGHPDQG IRU VNLOOHG ODERXU LV GXH WR ZLWKLQ LQGXVWU\ FKDQJHV 7KH EHWZHHQ LQGXVWU\ HIIHFW LV RQO\

PDUJLQDO 6HFRQG WKH HFRQRPHWULF DQDO\VLV VXSSRUWV WKH DVVXPSWLRQ WKDW VNLOOHGELDVHG WHFKQLFDOFKDQJHLVSUHVHQWDQGIXUWKHUPRUHWKHUHVXOWVVKRZWKDWWKLVQRQQHXWUDOLW\LVGXHWR VNLOOHGODERXUXVLQJUDWKHUWKDQXQVNLOOHGODERXUVDYLQJWHFKQLFDOFKDQJH

'\QDPLFVLPXODWLRQVRQWKHHVWLPDWHGFRVWVKDUHHTXDWLRQPRGHORYHUUHYHDOWKDW SDUWLFXODUO\WKUHHIDFWRUVKDYHFRQWULEXWHGVLJQLILFDQWO\WRWKHVKLIWLQUHODWLYHODERXUGHPDQG ,QDGGLWLRQWRVNLOOHGELDVHGWHFKQLFDOFKDQJHZHILQGWKDWODERXUODERXUVXEVWLWXWLRQGXHWRD GHFOLQHLQUHODWLYHZDJHVEHWZHHQVNLOOHGDQGXQVNLOOHGODERXUDQGWKHJURZWKLQFDSLWDOVWRFNV H[SODLQPRVWRIWKHVKLIW$OWKRXJKKRPRWKHWLFLW\LVUHMHFWHGIRUDOOEXWRQHLQGXVWU\WKHVFDOH ELDVKDVLQJHQHUDOQRWDIIHFWHGUHODWLYHODERXUGHPDQGPXFK

(25)

$SSHQGL[

7KHGDWDDQGGHILQLWLRQRIYDULDEOHV

7KH LQGXVWU\ GDWD DUH IURP WKH DQQXDO 1RUZHJLDQ QDWLRQDO DFFRXQW 'DWD RQ PDQKRXUV DQG ODERXU FRVWV IRU GLIIHUHQW OHYHOV RI HGXFDWLRQ DUH UHFHQWO\ FDOFXODWHG ,Q WKLV DQDO\VLV VNLOOHG ODERXULVGHILQHGDVODERXUZLWKDXQLYHUVLW\RUKLJKHUWHFKQLFDOGHJUHHRUZLWKDGLSORPDIURPD YRFDWLRQDOVFKRRO/DERXUZLWKFRPSXOVRU\VFKRRORUKLJKVFKRROLVGHILQHGDVXQVNLOOHG

96I 6NLOOHGODERXUPHDVXUHGLQPDQKRXUVLQLQGXVWU\I 98I 8QVNLOOHGODERXUPHDVXUHGLQPDQKRXUVLQLQGXVWU\I 46I 6NLOOHGODERXUFRVWVSHUPDQKRXULQLQGXVWU\I

48I 8QVNLOOHGODERXUFRVWVSHUPDQKRXULQLQGXVWU\I 0I 0DWHULDOVLQSXWLQLQGXVWU\IFRQVWDQWNURQHU 40I 3ULFHRIPDWHULDOVLQLQGXVWU\I

(I (QHUJ\FRQVXPSWLRQGHILQHGDVWKHVXPRIHOHFWULFLW\DQGIXHOVE\LQGXVWU\IFRQVWDQW NURQHU,QJHQHUDOHOHFWULFLW\GRPLQDWHVWKHDJJUHJDWH

4(I 3ULFHRIHQHUJ\FRQVXPSWLRQLQLQGXVWU\I

;I 5HDOJURVVRXWSXWLQLQGXVWU\IFRQVWDQWNURQHU

.I 5HDOFDSLWDOVWRFNRILQGXVWU\IPHDVXUHGDWWKHEHJLQQLQJRIWKH \HDU FRQVWDQW NURQHU

7KHGHILQLWLRQRILQGXVWULHVIROORZVWKH1RUZHJLDQQDWLRQDODFFRXQWVZKLFKLVEDVHGRQWKH GLJLW 1$6(FODVVLILFDWLRQ V\VWHP 1RUZHJLDQ PDQXIDFWXULQJ LV GLYLGHG LQWR HLJKW GLIIHUHQW LQGXVWULHVDQGZHLQFOXGHVL[RIWKHVHLQRXUDQDO\VLV3HWUROHXPUHILQLQJDQG6KLSEXLOGLQJDUH H[FOXGHG

7DEOH$,QGXVWU\

&RGH 'HILQLWLRQ 1$6(5HY 2XWSXWVKDUH

)RRGEHYHUDJHV WH[WLOHV

0LVFHOODQHRXVPDQXIDFWXULQJ

3DSHU SXOS

,QGXVWULDOFKHPLFDOV

%DVLFPHWDOV

0DFKLQHU\

3HWUROHXPUHILQLQJ

6KLSEXLOGLQJ

(26)

$SSHQGL[

)LJXUH$&RVWVKDUHVRIXQVNLOOHGODERXULQ1RUZHJLDQPDQXIDFWXULQJ

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995

0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35

Food, bever. & text.

Miscellaneous manuf.

Machinery

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995

0.06 0.08 0.10 0.12 0.14 0.16 0.18 0.20 0.22

Paper & pulp Chemicals Metals

)LJXUH$&RVWVKDUHVRIVNLOOHGODERXULQ1RUZHJLDQPDQXIDFWXULQJ

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995

0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20

Food, bever. & text.

Miscellaneous manuf.

Machinery

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995

0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10 0.12 0.14

Paper & pulp Chemicals Metals

(27)

)LJXUH$&RVWVKDUHVRIPDWHULDOVLQ1RUZHJLDQPDQXIDFWXULQJ

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995

0.55 0.60 0.65 0.70 0.75 0.80 0.85

Food, bever. & text.

Miscellaneous manuf.

Machinery

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995

0.64 0.66 0.68 0.70 0.72 0.74 0.76 0.78 0.80

Paper & pulp Chemicals Metals

)LJXUH$&RVWVKDUHVRIHQHUJ\LQ1RUZHJLDQPDQXIDFWXULQJ

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995

0.00 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.04

Food, bever. & text.

Miscellaneous manuf.

Machinery

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995

0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10 0.12

Paper & pulp Chemicals Metals

)LJXUH$/DERXUFRVWVSHUPDQKRXURIXQVNLOOHGUHODWLYHWRVNLOOHGLQ1RUZHJLDQPDQXIDFWXULQJ

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995

0.70 0.75 0.80 0.85 0.90

Food, bever. & text.

Miscellaneous manuf.

Machinery

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995

0.70 0.75 0.80 0.85 0.90

Paper & pulp Chemicals Metals

(28)

)LJXUH$2XWSXWLQ1RUZHJLDQPDQXIDFWXULQJNURQHU

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995

30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Food, bever. & text.

Miscellaneous manuf.

Machinery

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

Paper & pulp Chemicals Metals

)LJXUH$5HDOFDSLWDOVWRFNLQ1RUZHJLDQPDQXIDFWXULQJNURQHU

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995

15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Food, bever. & text.

Miscellaneous manuf.

Machinery

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995

10 15 20 25 30

Paper & pulp Chemicals Metals

Referanser

RELATERTE DOKUMENTER

cVLVORFDWHGDSSUR[LPDWHO\NLORPHWHUVVRXWKRI2VORDQG KDV DERXW LQKDELWDQWV 7KH $JULFXOWXUDO XQLYHUVLW\ RI 1RUZD\DQGDVXEVHTXHQWUDLOURDGOLQHVZHUHWKH NH\ SUHFXUVRUV WR WKH FLW\ 7KH WRZQ

ODUJHO\ FRQYHUJH ZLWK +DQVHQ¶V PRGHO ZKLFK LV XVHG LQ WKLVWKHVLV 7KH PDLQ GLIIHUHQFH LV WKDW +DQVHQ FRQGXFWHG TXDOLWDWLYH UHVHDUFK RQ WKH 'DQLVK DJULIRRG LQGXVWU\ IRU WKH

; Zh xvh P wr lqglfdwh wkh qxpehu ri jurxsv1 Lq rughu iru dq djuhhphqw wr zrun/ doo jurxsv pxvw ehqhw iurp lw/ dovr wkh ohdvw hflhqw wkdw zrxog qrw sduwlflsdwh lq d ixoo jkw1

: Whfkqlfdoo|/ wklv phdqv wkdw wkh lqwhufhsw ri wkh lqyhuvh ghpdqg fxuyh zlwk wkh yhuwlfdo d{lv lv wkh vdph iru doo orfdwlrqv/ exw wkdw wkh fxuyh lv vwhhshu wkh kljkhu wkh ydoxh ri

Wkh pdlq qglqj lq wklv sdshu lv wkdw wkhuh kdv ehhq d ghfolqh lq wkh hfrqrplf uhwxuqv wr vfkrrolqj dfurvv frkruwv1 Wklv ghfolqh lv prvwo| wkh uhvxow ri fkdqjlqj vhohfwlrq

Wkh sxusrvh ri wkh suhvhqw sdshu kdv ehhq wr dsso| vwrfkdvwlf g|qdplf surjudpplqj lq rughu wr ghyhors dq hfrqrphwulf prgho iru up h{lw1 Dffruglqj wr vwrfkdvwlf g|qdplf surjudpplqj/

Iluvw/ djjuhjdwlqj xs wr lqgxvwu| ohyho0gdwd/ wkh vdph ohyho ri fkdqjhv lq wkh zrun irufh frpsrvlwlrq lv irxqg iru wkh Qruzhjldq hfrqrp| dv iru rwkhu frxqwulhv1 Prvw ri wkh fkdqjhv

Zh wkhq wxuqhg rxu dwwhqwlrq wr wkh dqdo|vlv ri d Udpvh| jurzwk prgho lq zklfk suhi0 huhqfhv zhuh dowhuhg wr lqfoxgh d frqfhuq iru uhodwlyh frqvxpswlrq/exloglqj rq wkh zrun ri