Ai hL@_M@?_ UUitt @h!i|G L4Ti||L?c N?uLh4 hU?} @?_
BiL}h@TU@* Lih@}i
$)t|i? 6LhLt r|vwhlq1irurvCqkk1qr
O@?t a@h*i k?_
kdqv1nlqgCqkk1qr
a,w U*@ttU@|L?GO46/ O84/ O<9
ki)Lh_tG MhL@_M@?_c hi}L?@* ULih@}ic N5c hi}*@|L?
Mt|h@U|G W? |t T@Tih i @?@*)3i |i 4@h!i| uLh MhL@_M@?_ @UUitt !i) ui@|hi Lu |t 4@h!i| t |@| | t UL?t_ih@M*) 4Lhi i Ti?ti |L UL??iU| UL?t4iht
? hh@* *LU@|L?t |@? ? hM@? *LU@|L?t `i tL |@| *i UL4Ti||L? ?Uhi@tit i*u@hi UL4T@hi_ |L 4L?LTL*) i? ThUit @hi uhii |L _gih @UhLtt *LU@|L?tc |i LTTLt|i 4@) Mi |hi u |ihi t @ hi^hi4i?| Lu ?uLh4 ThU?} @UhLtt *LU@|L?t 6h|ih4Lhic i tL |@| }i? ?uLh4 ThU?}c |i hi}*@|Lh 4@) ?Uhi@ti i*u@hi
@t i** @t ThL| M) hi^h?} @ }ih hi}L?@* ULih@}i |@? |i 4@h!i| L|UL4i
Discussion Paper 33/01
W?|hL_U|L?
hL@_M@?_ @UUitt t |i *@t| 4*i Lu |i }tTii_ ?uLh4@|L? }@)c @?_ | t
@? itti?|@* UL4TL?i?| ? Lh_ih |L @UUitt M@?__|_i4@?_?} tihUit tU @t
?|ih@U|i _iL Ai ULt|t Lu ThL_?} MhL@_M@?_ @UUitt @hi }*) UL?i ? |i ti?ti |@| | t UL?t_ih@M*) 4Lhi i Ti?ti |L UL??iU| UL?t4iht ? @hi@t | *L TLT*@|L? _i?t|) |@? ? @hi@t | } TLT*@|L? _i?t|) W? @ uhii 4@h!i|
iUL?L4) |t ULt| t|hU|hi 4}| 4T*) t}?U@?|*) }ih @UUitt ThUit ? hh@*
@hi@t |@? ? hM@? @hi@t `i @i |t tii? @ TL*|U@* UL?Uih? |@| TihTih@* *L U@|L?t ** Mi @h4i_ ?*itt MhL@_M@?_ @UUitt ThL_iht @hi hi^hi_ |L U@h}i |i t@4i ThUi uLh |i t@4i tihUi ? @** *LU@|L?t |@| |i) ULih E?uLh4 ThUit OLiihc ii? |L} |ihi 4@) Mi 4T*U| Lh i T*U| TL*|U@* hi^hi4i?|t Lu
?uLh4 ThUitc |i @U|@* ThUi *ii* ** @h_*) Mi hi}*@|i_ W?t|i@_c @t ? L|ih
?_t|hitc }Lih?4i?|t tii! |L Thii?| ?_*) } ThUit M) ?|?} tiih@* h4t
|L UL4Ti|i Ew@gL?| @?_ AhL*i E2fff Ai ThTLti Lu |i Thiti?| T@Tih t |L ? it|}@|i L |t TL*U) 4 @giU|t i*u@hi @?_ }iL}h@TU@* ULih@}i Lu MhL@_M@?_
@UUitt
`i? @ h4 M*_t @ MhL@_M@?_ @UUitt ?i|Lh! | Ttit LT|U@* Mih U*Ltih
|L |i tMtUhMih Ai 4Lt| UL44L? tL*|L? @t Mii? |L M*_ @ MihLT|U *?i
|@| tihit @ U*t|ih Lu L4itc @?_ ti |i i t|?} ULTTih *?it uLh |i *@t| 4*i E|i |i*iTL?i Lh U@M*iAV *?it At tL*|L? t U@**i_ Mih |L |i UhMc @?_ t 4U Ui@Tih |@? M*_?} MihLT|U *?it @** |i @) |L i@U tMtUhMih E*@h!
bbb@c bbbMc W4t bbbc 5Ti|@ 2fff@ OLiihc | tL*_ Mi ?L|i_ |@| |i tTii_
Lu UL44?U@|L?c @?_ |ihiuLhi |i ULt| Lu ThL_?} MhL@_M@?_ @UUittc t }ih
|i tLh|ih |i _t|@?Ui uhL4 |i UhM |L |i L4it LhiLihc |? @?) }i?
}iL}h@TU@* h@_tc |ihi t }i?ih@**) @ *Lih ?4Mih Lu L4it ? hh@* @hi@t |@?
? hM@? @hi@t Oi?Uic | t 4Lhi ULt|*) |L ThL_i @ }i? ^@*|) EtTii_ Lu UL4 4?U@|L? ? hh@* @hi@t |@? ? hM@? @hi@t
4Xqlyhuvdo Vhuylfh Reoljdwlrqv +XVR,/ iru lqvwdqfh lq wkh irup ri d uhtxluhphqw ri xqlirup sulfhv ru d uhtxluhphqw ri jhrjudsklfdo fryhudjh/ kdyh ehhq lpsrvhg sduwlfxoduo| rq whohfrppxqlfdwlrqv lqfxpehqwv iru d orqj wlph +vhh/ h1j1/ Ulrugdq/ 5334/ dqg Ydohwwl/ 5333/ iru ryhuylhzv,1
6Lh *Li?_ MhL@_M@?_ |iU?L*L}itc tU @t #5w @?_ )Mh_ MihUL@ EO6
?i|Lh!tc |i UhMt @hi ti_ |L tihi @ *@h}i ?4Mih Lu L4it2 6Lh |iti |iU?L*L }it | tii4t hi@*t|U |L @tt4i |@| 4@h}?@* UL??iU|L? ULt|t @hi ?t}?U@?|c M|
|@| |ihi @hi *@h}i i_ ULt|t ?L*i_ ? tih?} @?) }i? }iL}h@TU@* @hi@ W?
UL?|h@t|c uLh }i?_ MhL@_M@?_ |iU?L*L}itc @?_ ? T@h|U*@h uLh Mih |L |i L4it tL*|L?tc |i hi@* ML||*i?iU! t |i ih) *@t| 4*i W? |t U@ti 4@h}?@*
ULt|t @hi hi*@|i*) }c itTiU@**) ? hh@* @hi@t `i uLUt L? }i?_ MhL@_M@?_
|iU?L*L}it ? |t T@Tihc @?_ |t @tt4i |@| 4@h}?@* ULt|t @hi t}?U@?|c @?_
}ih |i *Lih |i TLT*@|L? _i?t|) LhiLihc i @Mt|h@U| uhL4 i_ }iL}h@T U@* ULt|t Ai 4T*U@|L?t Lu |t @hi _tUtti_ Mi*L
h 4L_i* t UL4T*i4i?|@h) |L |Lti M) 6@*@Mih @?_ OL}i?_Lh? E2fff @?_
@hhLtc OLih?} @?_ V@**i|| E2ff 6@*@Mih @?_ OL}i?_Lh? E2fff _ii*LT @ 4L_i* Lu UL4Ti||L? @4L?} u@U*|)M@ti_ MhL@_M@?_ ThL_ihtc @?_ ti i?}?iih?}
_@|@ uLh @? O6 ?i|Lh! ? @ 4i|hLTL*|@? @hi@ ? |i N5 W? UL?|h@t| |L Lhti*itc 6@*@Mih @?_ OL}i?_Lh? _L ?L| uLUt L? |i tti Lu ?uLh4 ThU?} 6h|ih4Lhic
*i i @tt4i |@| 4@h}?@* UL??iU|L? ULt|t ?Uhi@ti i? TLT*@|L? _i?t|) _iUhi@titc |i) @tt4i |@| |ihi t @ i_ ULt| Lu tih?} @ }i? @hi@ t @h}i_
@MLic |ih @tt4T|L? tii4t hi@*t|U i? uLUt?} L? @? O6 ?i|Lh! 6Lh |i O6 ?i|Lh!t M*| L| M) |i U@M*iAV ThL_iht ? |i N5 ? |i *@|i bbf<t Mih
@t |)TU@**) _iT*L)i_ |L tihi @? @hi@ E?i}MLhLL_ Lu @ML| Dff2fff L4it EB**i||c bb. `i? N5 U@M*i ThL_iht Ei}c A:A @hi ?L 4}h@|?} |ih O6
?i|Lh!t |L Mih |L |i UhMc uiih tMtUhMiht @hi @**Li_ |L t@hi |i @UUitt
?i|Lh! |)TU@**) uhL4 2f2ff L4it EB**i|| @?_ Ati?}c 2ff AihiuLhic i?
i 4Li uhL4 *Li?_ MhL@_M@?_ |iU?L*L}it |L }i?_ MhL@_M@?_ |iU?L*L}itc
|i h@?}i |? U |i i t|?} *?it U@? Mi ti_ t 4U *Lihc @?_ | tii4t
|L Mi 4Lhi hi@*t|U |L @tt4i |@| @ t}?U@?| T@h| Lu |i ULt| t 4@h}?@* Tih
5{GVO duh whfkqltxhv doorzlqj kljkhu vshhg ri dffhvv wkurxjk wkh h{lvwlqj whohskrqh olqhv e|
lqvwdoolqj htxlsphqwv lq wkh krphv dqg ehiruh wkh uvw vzlwfk1 DGVO +D|pphwulf Gljlwdo Vxe0 vfulehu Olqh,lv wkh GVO0yhuvlrq wkdw fdq xvh h{lvwlqj olqhv wkh orqjhvw glvwdqfh1 YGVO +Yhu| kljk vshhg gljlwdo vxefulehu olqh,uhtxluhv wkdw wkh ehu olqh lv pxfk forvhu wr krphv/ exw dovr jlyhv vljqlfdqwo| kljkhu vshhg ri dffhvv1
2
UL?t4ih UL??iU|i_
*tL @hhLt i| @* E2ff @tt4i |@| |ihi t @ i_ ULt| Tih @hi@ @?_ ?L| Tih UL?t4ih UL??iU|i_c @?_ |t uLUt L? |i 4@h!i| uLh *Li?_ MhL@_M@?_ |iU?L*L }it LhiLihc ? UL?|h@t| |L Lhti*itc ML| @hhLt i| @* E2ff @?_ 6@*@Mih i|
@* E2fff @tt4i |@| |i ?i|Lh! t @*hi@_) ?t|@**i_ ? |i @U|@* @hi@ i? |i t@*i Lu MhL@_M@?_ UL??iU|L? |@!it T*@Ui Oi?Uic |i ?it|4i?| ULt|t @hi t?! |
ht| }*@?Uic | tii4t LMLt |@| |t t |i 4Lt| hi@*t|U _itUhT|L? Lu |i |4?}
Lu |i }@4i OLiihc u |t ihi |hic @?_ 4@h}?@* ULt|t @hi ?t}?U@?|c 4U Lu
|i hi}*@|Lh) @|Lh|it< UL?Uih? |@| @? ?hi}*@|i_ 4L?LTL*) ** ti| @ }ih ThUi ? hh@* @hi@t |@? ? hM@? @hi@t ** Mi ?ii_*itt Etii @hhLt i| @* E2ff uLh
@ uLh4@* ThLLu | | t u@h uhL4 LMLt |@| }iL}h@TU@* ULih@}i t ti| ThLh |L ThUit t *L?} @t |ihi t ?L hi}*@|Lh) UL?t|h@?| L? ULih@}ic |i ULih@}i 4@) ? u@U| Mi ti| t|hii|M)t|hii|c @t @h}i_ M) 6@*@Mih @?_ OL}i?_Lh? E2fff W? Lh UL?|i | |i ULih@}i 4@) ii? Mi ti| UL?t4ihM)UL?t4ih W? tU @ UL?|i |c |i ThL_iht 4@) |h) |L h|i @ UL?|h@U| | |i UL?t4iht MiuLhi |i) @U|@**) M*_
Mih |L L4it Lh Mih |L @ UhM ?i@h |i L4it W? |i 5U@?_?@@? UL?|hitc uLh ?t|@?Uic i @i tii? |@| MhL@_M@?_ ThL_iht @_ih|ti |ih tihUit MiuLhi
|i) _iT*L) |i Mih Oi?Uic ? Lh M@tU 4L_i* i @tt4i |@| ULih@}i @?_ ThUit
@hi ti| t4*|@?iLt*) Aihi@u|ihc i UL4T@hi |i M@tU 4L_i* | @ }@4i ihi ULih@}i t ti| ThLh |L ThUit
t @ Mi?U4@h! U@ti i _thi}@h_ |i hi^hi4i?| Lu ?uLh4 ThU?}c @?_ tL
|@| ML| @ 4L?LTL*t| @?_ L*}LTL*t|U h4t @i ?Ui?|it |L tihi |i tLU@**) LT|4@* hi}L?@* ULih@}i Ai hi@tL? uLh |t hit*| t |@| | t ThL|@M*i |L tihi
?i *LU@|L?t ?|* |i *@t| Eic |i 4Lt| i Ti?ti *LU@|L? i @U|*) Mhi@!t ii?
At t _i u@U|L |i t@4i _iUtL? @t @ )TL|i|U@* tLU@* T*@??ih L*_ 4@!i Mt|h@U|?} uhL4 i_ ULt|t |i L?*) igiU| Lu }ih UL4Ti||L? t hi_Ui_ ThUit
? @** *LU@|L?tc @?_ |t ?@4M}Lt*) @t @ TLt|i i*u@hi igiU|
A?}t U@?}i u?_@4i?|@**) i? i 4TLti @ hi^hi4i?| Lu ?uLh4 ThU?}
6ht|c | tL*_ Mi ?L|i_ |@| |i tLU@**) LT|4@* hi}L?@* ULih@}i u@**t ? |t U@ti Ai ?||L? uLh |t h?t @t uL**LtG Ai u@U| |@| | t hi*@|i*) ?i Ti?ti
|L tihi UL?t4iht ? *LU@|L?t | @ } TLT*@|L? _i?t|) ?_U@|it |@| @*tL
|i @UUitt ThUi tL*_ Mi *L OLiihc @ *L ThUi ?_Uit |LL } _i4@?_ ? TihTih@* *LU@|L?tc ihi |i hi@* ULt|t Lu ThL_?} MhL@_M@?_ @UUitt @hi } W? Lh_ih |L hi_Ui |i 4@}?|_i Lu |i *@||ih igiU|c | t tLU@**) LT|4@* ?L| |L tihi tL4i Lu |i *i@t| TLT*@|i_ @hi@t Atc | t ?L| Uih|@? |@| ?uLh4 ThU?}
t @ }LL_ hi}L?@* TL*U)
5iUL?_c @?_ |t t Lh 4@? hit*|c ?Uhi@ti_ UL4Ti||L? ?ii_ ?L| 4ThLi i*u@hi i? i @i @ hi^hi4i?| Lu ?uLh4 ThUit `*i @ 4L?LTL*t| ** t|**
@i ?Ui?|it |L ti| |i t@4i hi}L?@* ULih@}i @t |i tLU@* T*@??ihc |i ULih@}i
*ii* _iUhi@tit u |ihi t UL4Ti||L? L4Ti||L? hi_Uit ThUitc M| ihi? *itc
? @ ti?tic @*tL |i ThLM*i4G _i |L |i UL?i |) Lu |i ULt| u?U|L?c |i *Lih 4@h!i| ThUi 4@!it | *itt ThL|@M*i |L tihi TihTih@* *LU@|L?t L4Ti||L?
|ihiuLhi 4T*it |@| |i hi}L?@* ULih@}i u@**t |L @ tMLT|4@* *ii*c @?_ |t
?i}@|i i*u@hi igiU| t 4Lhi *!i*) |L _L4?@|i |i *@h}ih |i ?4Mih Lu h4t
|@| Lgih MhL@_M@?_ @UUitt L?ti^i?|*)c i*u@hi 4@) Mi *Lih | uhii i?|h)
|@? u |i 4@h!i| t tihi_ M) @ 4L?LTL*t| ii? i? i @Mt|h@U| uhL4 TLttM*i _T*U@|L? Lu i_ ULt|t
Ai u@U| |@| | t hi*@|i*) 4Lhi i Ti?ti |L tihi hh@* @hi@t |@? hM@? @hi@t t ?L| ?^i uLh |i MhL@_M@?_ @UUitt |iU?L*L}) Aihi t @ t4*@h ULt| t|hU|hi
@*tL uLhc i}c TLt|@* tihUit @?_ |h_ }i?ih@|L? 4LM*i |i*iTL?i t)t|i4t ENA5
? ,hLTi W? tL4i UL?|hit E*!i 6h@?Uic Lh@) @?_ 5i_i? |i }Lih?4i?|t
@i tTiUi_ @ 4?44 hi}L?@* ULih@}i M) |i h4t |@| @hi }h@?|i_ NA5
*Ui?titc @?_ ThLTLt@*t @i Mii? @_@?Ui_ |L tTiUu) t4*@h hi^hi4i?|t uLh h4t ThL_?} MhL@_M@?_ @UUitt
W? @? i |i?tL? Lu |i M@tU 4L_i* i |t @tt4i |@| |i }Lih?4i?| t @M*i
|L ti| @ M?_?} ULih@}i hi^hi4i?| ThLh |L _L?t|hi@4 UL4Ti||L? Mi|ii? |i
h4tc @?_ i tL |@| |t @t @ TLt|i igiU| L? @}}hi}@|i UL?t4ih thT*t
Lhi thTht?}*)c |t TL*U) @*tL ?Uhi@tit |i ThL| *ii* Lu |i h4t Ai hi@tL?
6Wkhuh kdv qrw ehhq udlvhg dq| uhtxluhphqw ri xqlirup sulflqj iru XPWV1 Wklv lv dovr qrw qhfhvvdu|/ vlqfh xqlirup sulflqj zloo suredeo| eh wkh pdunhw rxwfrph1 Wkh uhdvrq lv wkdw lq wkh pdunhw iru preloh skrqhv duelwudjh rssruwxqlwlhv vwulfwo| uhgxfh wkh surylghuv* delolw| wr vhw sulfhv wkdw ydu| zlwk zkhuh shrsoh olyh1
e
t |@| |i hi}*@|Lhc M) @U|?} @t @ ht|4Lihc tL*it @ ULLh_?@|L? ThLM*i4(
|i L*}LTL*t|U h4t L*_ Thiuih |i t@4i hi}L?@* ULih@}i @t |i L?i ULti?
M) @ )TL|i|U@* 4L?LTL*t|c M| |t _Lit ?L| UL?t|||i @? i^*Mh4 ? @ uhii 4@h!i| iUL?L4)
Ai hi}*@|Lh) @|Lh|it Lu|i? @h}i |@| |ih }L@* t @ |iU?L*L}U@* ?i|h@*
hi}*@|L? `i tL |@| |t 4@) ?L| Mi @TThLTh@|i ? |i MhL@_M@?_ @UUitt 4@h!i| ) UL4T@h?} Lh hit*|t | @hhLt i| @* E2ff i tL |@| |i TL*U) 4@!ih tL*_ |@!i ?|L @UUL?| U |iU?L*L}) t i4T*L)i_c t?Ui |t ** @i 4T*U@|L?t uLh |i igiU|t Lu TLttM*i hi^hi4i?|t Lu ?uLh4 ThU?} @?_ ULih@}i
AL Mh?} uLh@h_ |iti hit*|t i ti @ }*) t|)*3i_ 4L_i* ihi i @i
@ UL?|?4 Lu *LU@|L?t |@| _gih L?*) | hitTiU| |L |ih TLT*@|L? _i?t|) 5TiUU@**)c |i _t|hM|L? Lu UL?t4ih Thiuihi?Uit uLh MhL@_M@?_ @UUitt t |i t@4i ? @** *LU@|L?t At 4i@?t |@| |i _L?@h_t*LT?} _i4@?_ Uhic @_
t|i_ uLh TLT*@|L? t3ic t |i t@4i ? i@U *LU@|L?
W? Lh_ih |L uLUt L? |i UL?ti^i?Uit Lu }ih UL4Ti||L? @?_ ?uLh4 ThU?}
i 4@!i tL4i t4T*u)?} @tt4T|L?t |@| @hi ?L| UhU@* uLh Lh UL?U*tL?t 6ht|c i @Mt|h@U| uhL4 i_ ULt|t ? Lh_ih |L tL |@| UL4Ti||L? 4@) Mi _i|h4i?|@*
|L i*u@hi ii? ? |i @Mti?Ui Lu _T*U@|L? Lu i_ ULt|t W?U*_?} i_ ULt|t @|
i@U *LU@|L?c uLh ?t|@?Uic 4i@?t |@| |i tLU@**) LT|4@* ?4Mih Lu *LU@|L?t |L tihi ** ? }i?ih@* Mi }ih |@? |i L?i ULti? M) |i 4@h!i| Etii @*tL @hhLt i|
@*c 2ff Ai L|ih hit*|t ? |i T@Tih thic ? T@h|U*@h |i L?i |@| }ih UL4Ti||L? |i?_t |L hi_Ui hi}L?@* ULih@}i i? ThUit @hi ?uLh4e
5iUL?_c @?@*L}Lt |L i_ ULt|c |i i t|i?Ui Lu ?i|Lh! i |ih?@*|it 4@) u@Lh 4L?LTL*) |L UL4Ti||L? Et?Ui @ 4L?LTL*t| @t ?Ui?|it |L ?|ih?@*3i |i i
|ih?@*|it Oi?Uic i @Mt|h@U| uhL4 ?i|Lh! i |ih?@*|itc t?Ui ?|hL_U?} tU igiU|t ? |i Thiti?| 4L_i* L*_ t|hi?}|i? |i hit*| |@| }ih UL4Ti||L?
4@) hi_Ui i*u@hi
Ah_c i @tt4i |@| MhL@_M@?_ @UUitt t @ tiT@h@|i 4@h!i| uhL4 Uhhi?| ?@h hLM@?_ @UUitt NT}h@_?} Lu |i i t|?} |i*iTL?i @?_ U@M*iAV ?i|Lh!t |L MhL@_M@?_ tii4t |L Mi |i 4Lt| ThL4t?} @) uLh MhL@_M@?_ 4T*i4i?|@|L? Etii
7Vlqfh zh devwudfw iurp {hg frvwv zh gr qrw h{solflwo| frqvlghu hqwu| ghflvlrqv1
D
i} *@h!c bbb@c bbbM Oi?Uic MhL@_M@?_ 4@) Mi tii? @t @ ^@*|) 4ThLi4i?|
Lu |i i t|?} ?@hhLM@?_ @UUitt OLiihc ii? u MhL@_M@?_ 4@) Mi tii? @t @ t TihLh tMt|||i |L Uhhi?| ?@hhLM@?_ tihUitc ?@hhLM@?_ ?ii_ ?L| Mi UL?t_ihi_
@t @ tMt|||i uLh TL|i?|@* MhL@_M@?_ ThL_iht t4T*) MiU@ti ?@hhLM@?_ @UUitt U@??L| _i*ih M@?__|_i4@?_?} tihUit tU @t hi@* |4i _iLc L?_i4@?_
_iLc ?|ih@U|i 4*|T*@)ih }@4?} @?_ tL uLh| EO@t4@? i| @*c 2ff
6Lh|c i @tt4i UL4Ti||L? Mi|ii? t)44i|hU u@U*|)M@ti_ h4tc @?_ i _L
?L| LTi? T uLh ?L?u@U*|)M@ti_ h4t |@| hi?| U@T@U|) uhL4 u@U*|)M@ti_ h4t 54*@h*) |L @hhLt i| @* E2ff i _L ?L| UL?t_ih @UUitt ThLM*i4t 6h|ih4Lhic i _L ?L| UL?t_ih |i 4T*U@|L?t Lu L?i Lu |i h4t @?} @ ht|4Lih @_@?|@}i Lih |i L|iht ? |i ULUi Lu ULih@}i AL @?@*)3i |i UL?ti^i?Uit Lu |iti !?_t Lu @t)44i|hit tii4t *!i @? ?|ihit|?} T@| uLh u|hi hiti@hU Etii @*tL O@?ti?c
bbbc @?_ OLih?}c 2ff
Aihi @hi tiih@* ?uLh4@* TL*U) @?@*)tit Lu |i MhL@_M@?_ ?_t|h)c ? T@h|U
*@h | uLUt L? |i N5 4@h!i| Ei} 5Ti|@ E2fff@c 2fffMc @Uki@tL? Ebbbc i|!LU @?_ #i Lt|ih E2fff W? UL?|h@t|c |ihi @hi |L Lh !?L*i_}i ui T@Tiht i T*U|*) 4L_i**?} UL4Ti||L? ? |i MhL@_M@?_ @UUitt 4@h!i|c M| @hhLt i| @*
E2ffc 6@*@Mih @?_ OL}i?_Lh? E2fff @?_ OLih?} E2ff @hi ?L|@M*i i UiT|L?t __|L?@**)c O@t4@?c 5_@! @?_ 5?}ih E2ff @?@*)3i |i UL?ti^i?Uit Lu @t)4 4i|hU hi}*@|L? Lu |i*iUL44?U@|L? ThL_iht @?_ U@M*iAVThL_iht hi}@h_?}
MhL@_M@?_ @UUitt
5?Ui |i ?uLh4 ThUi UL?t|h@?| 4T*it |@| |i 4@h!i|t E*LU@|L?t @hi t|h@|i }U@**) *?!i_c Lh T@Tih t hi*@|i_ |L |i |iLh) Lu 4*|4@h!i| L*}LTL*)c ihi
*L i| @* EbHD t |i ti4?@* T@Tih h T@Tih t @*tL hi*@|i_ |L |i *|ih@|hi L? ThUi _tUh4?@|L?c MiU@ti ?uLh4 ThU?} ? Lh UL?|i | _i u@U|L _tUh4
?@|it @}@?t| UL?t4iht *?} ? hM@? @hi@t Oi?Uic | 4@) Mi tii? @t tT@|@*
ThUi _tUh4?@|L?c tiic i}c V@h@? EbHb uLh @? Lihi Ai 4@? uLUt Lu |t
*|ih@|hic Liihc t |L @?@*)3i i|ih @? ?hi}*@|i_ h4 4@) ?_ | ThL|@M*i
|L U@h}i @ ?uLh4 ThUi |hL}L| @ }i? |ihh|Lh) ? Lh_ih |L Thii?| @hM|h@}i Lh _i|ih i?|h)c t?Ui UL?t4iht *LU@|i_ uh|ih @@) uhL4 |i h4 @hi 4Lhi *!i*) |L
S
@i @*|ih?@|i tTT*ihtD hM|h@}i t ?L| hi*i@?| uLh Lh T@Tih MLt*)c |i UL?t4iht @i |L M) MhL@_M@?_ @UUitt ihi |i) *ic @?_ |i) @hi Thii?|i_
uhL4 M)?} Lh hiti**?} |ih tMtUhT|L? |L L|ih @hi@t E*LU@|L?t Oi?Uic |i tTT*iht ?ii_ ?L| Lhh) @ML| @hM|h@}i
Ai hit| Lu |t T@Tih t Lh}@?3i_ @t uL**Lt Ai uLh4@* 4L_i* t Thiti?|i_ ? 5iU|L? 2c @?_ |i Mi?U4@h! 4L_i* ihi ThUit _gih Mi|ii? |i *LU@|L?t t @?@
*)3i_ ? 5iU|L? W? 5iU|L? e i @tt4i ?uLh4 ThU?} `i ht| @?@*)3i |i U@ti ihi ULih@}i @?_ ^@?||it @hi ti| t4*|@?iLt*)c @?_ i |i? @tt4i |@| ULih
@}i t ti| ThLh |L ^@?||it W? tiU|L? D i UL?U*_i
2 Ai 4L_i*
Ai i?_tih 4@h!i| UL?tt|t Lu @ UL?|?4 Lu *LU@|L?t W? @ }i? *LU@|L? |ihi t @ ?4Mih Lu UL?t4iht |@| _gih ? |ih **?}?itt |L T@) uLh MhL@_M@?_ @UUitt Ai _i4@?_ uhL4 @ hiThiti?|@|i }hLT Lu UL?t4iht ? *LU@|L? | i^@*t
+E| ' kRE|
q c E
ihi + t ^@?||)cR t ThUi @?_kc q@hi tL4i TLt|i UL?t|@?|tS
`| ?uLh4 ThU?} RE| 'R ? @**| `i ** @tt4i |@| i^@|L? E @TT*it uLh @** *LU@|L?tc U 4i@?t |@| |i *LU@|L?t _L ?L| _gih | hitTiU| |L |i UL?t4iht< **?}?itt |L T@) uLh MhL@_M@?_ @UUitt OLiihc |i @MtL*|i 4@h!i|
t3i _giht Mi|ii? |i *LU@|L?t wi|E| Mi |i TLT*@|L? t3i ? *LU@|L?|ctU
|@| |L|@* 4@h!i| _i4@?_ ? *LU@|L?|t%E| 'E|+E|,@U *LU@|L? @t |i t@4i }iL}h@TU@* t3ic @?_ i Lh_ih | tU |@| *LU@|L? f @t |i *@h}it| TLT*@|L?
@?_ *LU@|L? |i t4@**it| TLT*@|L?. Ai TLT*@|L? t3i Lu *LU@|L? f tc M)
8Skolsv +4<;6,jlyhv d frpsuhkhqvlyh glvfxvvlrq dqg h{dpsohv ri vsdwldo sulfh glvfulplqdwlrq lq Hxursh1
9Qrwh wkdw wkh frqvxphuv xvxdoo| sd| d {hg prqwko| ihh iru eurdgedqg dffhvv/ dqg qr xvdjh0 ru wlph ghshqghqw sulfh dv iru frqyhqwlrqdo qduurzedqg dffhvv1 Zh dvvxph wkdw wkh sulfh spd|
eh lqwhusuhwhg dv wkh glvfrxqwhg sd|phqw iru eurdgedqg dffhvv1
:Whfkqlfdoo|/ wklv phdqv wkdw wkh lqwhufhsw ri wkh lqyhuvh ghpdqg fxuyh zlwk wkh yhuwlfdo d{lv lv wkh vdph iru doo orfdwlrqv/ exw wkdw wkh fxuyh lv vwhhshu wkh kljkhu wkh ydoxh riw +uhhfwlqj d vpdoohu srsxodwlrq vl}h,1
.
ULUi Lu tU@*ic i^@* |L ( f ' `i @tt4i |@| |i TLT*@|L? t3i Lu *LU@|L?| t e3| |4it |i t3i Lu *LU@|L? f At 4i@?t |@|E| ' e3|c Lh
%E| ' e3|+E| E2
wi| |i 4@h}?@* ULt| Lu UL??iU|?} @ UL?t4ih ? *LU@|L? f |L |i MhL@_M@?_
Mi i^@* |L ?i ?|ihThi|@|L? Lu t |@| |i U*Ltih |L L4it |i Mih t _i T*L)i_c |i }ih t OLiihc ? Lh @?@*)tt i @tt4i |@| |i *ii* Lu t i L}i?Lt*) }i? Ui?|h@* ui@|hi Lu ThL_?} MhL@_M@?_ @UUitt t |i u@U|
|@| | t t}?U@?|*) 4Lhi i Ti?ti |L UL??iU| UL?t4iht ? *LU@|L?t | @ *L TLT*@|L? _i?t|) |@? ? *LU@|L?t | } TLT*@|L? _i?t|) AL U@T|hi |t u@U|c i ** @tt4i |@| |i ULt| Lu ThL_?} @UUitt |L %E| UL?t4iht ? *LU@|L?
| t e>|%E|c | > :f Ai ULt| Lu tihU?} ? *LU@|L?t t UL?ti^i?|*) E? '
] ?
f e>|%E|_| E
AhL}L| i @tt4i |@|k : ( L|ihti | ** ?L| Mi ThL|@M*i |L tihi @?)
*LU@|L? 5?Ui | t ThLM|i*) i Ti?ti |L tihi |i *i@t| TLT*@|i_ *LU@|L?tc
| ** @*@)t Mi |hi |@| ? At t @*tL |hi ? |i 4L_i*c t?Ui E|$ 4
@t |$ 4H
Ai i @U| t3i Lu |i T@h@4i|ih > _Lit ?L| 4@||ih uLh |i ^@*|@|i hit*|tc
@?_ ? |i uL**L?} | ThLit UL?i?i?| |L ULLti >' 2
i?U4@h!G hUit _gih @UhLtt *LU@|L?t
t @ Mi?U4@h! U@tic i ** UL?t_ih |i tLU@* LT|44 @?_ |i 4@h!i| i^*M h4 E| 4L?LTL*) @?_ L*}LTL*t|U UL4Ti||L? @ *@ Lh?L|c hitTiU|i*) i?
i @**L ThUit |L _gih @UhLtt |i *LU@|L?t
;Qrwh wkdw zh devwudfw frpsohwho| iurp {hg frvwv1 Xqohvv zh frqvlghu eurdgedqg vroxwlrqv zkhuh hdfk krph lv gluhfwo| frqqhfwhg zlwk rswlfdo ehu/ lw pd| vhhp prvw uhdolvwlf wr vshfli|
d prgho zkhuh {hg frvwv grplqdwh lq xuedq duhdv +kljk srsxodwlrq ghqvlw|,dqg pdujlqdo frvwv grplqdwh lq uxudo duhdv +orz srsxodwlrq ghqvlw|,1 Krzhyhu/ lq rughu wr pdnh wkh prgho wudfwdeoh zh dvvxph wkdw wkh frvwv duh pdujlqdo shu frqqhfwhg frqvxphu lq doo orfdwlrqv1 Wklv vlpsolfdwlrq grhv qrw dhfw wkh txdolwdwlyh wudgh0r ehwzhhq sulfhv dqg jhrjudsklfdo fryhudjh wkdw zh irfxv rq ehorz1
H
Ai 4@h}?@* ULt| Lu UL??iU|?} @ UL?t4ih ? *LU@|L?|t 'e2|W? tLU@*
LT|44 E_i?L|i_ | tTihtUhT| W |i ThUi t i^@* |L |i 4@h}?@* ULt|G RWE| 'e2|
At 4T*it |@|
+WE| ' q
ke2|
Ee Ai tLU@* T*@??ih ** ThL_i MhL@_M@?_ @UUitt ?|* _i4@?_ t i^@* |L 3ihL 5L*?} uLh +WE| ' f ? Ee i |t @i
?W ' 2*?k
ED
| @*tL @ 4L?LTL*t| @?_ L*}LTL*t|U h4t ** tihi |i tLU@**) LT|4@* ?4 Mih Lu *LU@|L?t Etii @TTi?_ uLh @ uLh4@* ThLLu W| t LT|4@* uLh @ 4L?LTL*t|
|L ?Uhi@ti ? ?|* |i 4@h}?@* ThL| Lu UL??iU|?} UL?t4iht ? @ ?i *LU@|L?
t i^@* |L 3ihL At t _i u@U|L |i t@4i _iUtL? @t |i L?i 4@_i M) |i tLU@*
T*@??ih LhiLihc ?L 4@||ih L t4@** |i ThL| *ii* Lu @ 4L?LTL*t| t ? @ }i? *LU@|L?c |ihi ** t|** Mi tL4i ThL| *iu| @*tL | L*}LTL*t|U UL4Ti||L?
AihiuLhi |i hi}L?@* ULih@}i t ?_iTi?_i?| Lu |i ?4Mih Lu UL4Ti|?} h4t ?
|i 4@h!i| OLiihc |i i**!?L? ThLM*i4 |@| @ 4L?LTL*t| U@h}it |LL } ThUit hi4@?t `| @ }ih ?4Mih Lu h4t |i UL4Ti||i Thitthi ?Uhi@titc
@?_ |ihiuLhi |i |L|@* ^@?||) Lgihi_ ? i@U *LU@|L? |@| t tihi_ ** @*tL
?Uhi@ti
`i 4@) t4 T Lh hit*|t tL u@h ? |i uL**L?} *i44@G
wi44@ G 5TTLti |@| i @**L ThUit |L _gih Mi|ii? |i *LU@|L?t Ai?
i @i |@|G E ML| @ 4L?LTL*t| @?_ L*}LTL*t|U h4t ** ULLti |i tLU@**) LT|4@* }iL}h@TU@* ULih@}ic @?_ E UL4Ti||L? ** ?Uhi@ti i*u@hi UL4T@hi_ |L 4L?LTL*)c t?Ui |i UL?t4ih ThUit ** Mi *Lih |i *@h}ih |i ?4Mih Lu UL4Ti|?}
h4t
b
e N?uLh4 ThU?}
5TTLti |@| |i h4t @hi hi^hi_ |L U@h}i |i t@4i ThUi ? @** *LU@|L?t wi|RMi
|t UL44L? ThUi @?_ *i| +Mi |i ULhhitTL?_?} _i4@?_ uhL4 i@U hiThiti?|@|i }hLT Lu UL?t4iht ? @** |i *LU@|L?t |@| @hi tihi_ At 4i@?t |@| @U|@*
_i4@?_ ? *LU@|L?|i^@*t%E| 'e3|+`i |i? ?_ |@| @}}hi}@|i 4@h!i| _i4@?_
i^@*t ' ' U?
f E|+_| ' +U?
f e3|_| ' +Ee3? @?_ |@| |i ULt|t @hi i^@* |L 'U?
f e2|+e3|_| '+Ee?
e 5LU@* LT|44 | ?uLh4 ThUit
Ai @*i uLh tLUi|) Lu ThL_?} MhL@_M@?_ @UUitt t i^@* |L |i UL?t4ih thT*t E7 T*t hii?i E- 4?t |i ULt|t E Lu ThL_?} |i tihUi Ai hi}*@|Lh<t ThLM*i4 U@? |t Mi _itUhMi_ @t
`W ' 4@
?c+
2q+2Ee3? n Ekq++Ee3?+Ee?
6hL4 |t | uL**Lt |@|
+WE? '
q Eke? ES
@?_
?WE+ '
2*?2kq+
2 E.
) UL4M??} ES @?_ E. i @i
+W ' q
#
k ns
2n Hk e
$
@?_
?W ' *? ns
n Hk*
e EH
,^@|L?t ED @?_ EH |i** t |@|G
f
hLTLt|L? G 5TTLti |@| |i ThUi t ?uLh4 @UhLtt |i *LU@|L?t W? |t U@ti |i tLU@**) LT|4@* }iL}h@TU@* ULih@}i |L tihi t *Lih |@? i? ThUit @hi
?L??uLh4
Ai ?||L? Mi?_ |i u@U| |@| ?W t hi_Ui_ | ?uLh4 ThUitc h?t @t uL**Lt Ai tLU@**) LT|4@* ?uLh4 ThUi ** Mi tL4iihi Mi|ii? |i 4@h}?@*
ULt|t Lu tih?} UL?t4iht ? |i ht| *LU@|L? @?_ ? |i *@t| *LU@|L? |LL *L ThUi ** ?_Ui |LL } UL?t4T|L?c *i @ |LL } ThUi ** ?_Ui |LL *L UL?t4T|L? Wu |i hi}L?@* ULih@}i t }c |i ?uLh4 ThUi 4t| @*tL Mi }
? Lh_ih |L Thii?| @? i Uitti*) } _i4@?_ ? }ULt| *LU@|L?t 5?Ui @ } ThUi @h4t UL?t4iht ? @** |i *LU@|L?t |@| @hi tihi_c | t LT|4@* |L hi_Ui
|i hi}L?@* ULih@}i hi*@|i |L |i U@ti | ?L??uLh4 ThUit
e2 Ai ULUi Lu |i 4L?LTL*t|
`| ?uLh4 ThUit |i LT|43@|L? ThLM*i4 Lu |i 4L?LTL*t| i^@*t Z' 4@
+c?
Ekq++Ee3?+Ee?
Eb
6hL4 |t i ?_ |i ht| Lh_ih UL?_|L?t EtTihtUhT| 6 uLh 4L?LTL*)G +6E? '
2q Eke?c@?_ Ef
?6E+ '
2*?kq+
E
L4M??} i^@|L?t Ef @?_ E )i*_t |@| |i i^*Mh4 ^@?||) t i^@*
+6 ' 2q
#
k ns
2n Hk e
$
*i |i hi}L?@* ULih@}i t
?6 ' *? ns
n Hk*
e E2
L4T@h?} ED @?_ E2 i |t tii |@| |i 4L?LTL*t| ** tihi uiih *LU@|L?t i? i t uLhUi_ |L U@h}i @ ?uLh4 ThUi |@? i? ThUit @hi ?L??uLh4 Ai hi@tL? t |@| | t ULt|*) |L UL??iU| *LU@|L?t |@| @i @ *L TLT*@|L? _i?t|)c
hi^h?} @ hi*@|i*) } UL??iU|L? ThUi `| ?uLh4 ThUit |i 4L?LTL*t|
4t| |ihiuLhi U@h}i @ }ih ThUi uhL4 @** UL?t4iht |i *@h}ih |i hi}L?@*
ULih@}i ) tih?} @ *@h}i ?4Mih Lu *LU@|L?t |i 4L?LTL*t| ** |ihiuLhi *LLti
?UL4i uhL4 |i *LU@|L?t | |i }it| TLT*@|L? _i?t|)b
W?||i*) L?i 4@) i TiU| |@| |i 4L?LTL*t| ** ThL_i @ t4@**ih hi}L?@*
ULih@}i |@? |i tLU@* T*@??ihc t?Ui @ tLU@* T*@??ih t ?L| UL?Uih?i_ @ML| |i ThL| *ii*Tih ti OLiihc i^@|L?t ED @?_ EH tL |@| i t|** @i?6 '?W G hLTLt|L? 2G W?_iTi?_i?| Lu i|ih i @i ?uLh4 Lh ?L??uLh4 ThUit
|i 4L?LTL*t| @?_ |i tLU@* T*@??ih ** ThL_i |i t@4i hi}L?@* ULih@}ic M|
|i ThUit U@h}i_ M) |i 4L?LTL*t| @hi |LL }
Ai u@U| |@| |i tLU@* T*@??ih @?_ |i 4L?LTL*t| ** ULLti |i t@4i ULih@}i
| ?uLh4 ThUit U@? Mi i T*@?i_ @t uL**Lt
W? i@U *LU@|L? | |i 4L?LTL*t| LM|@?t @ hii?i i^@* |L-E| ' R6+6e3|cLh -E| ' Ekq+6+6e3|c
*i |i ?Uhhi_ ULt|t @hi
6E| ' +6e|
MLt*)c |i 4L?LTL*t| ** ?L| tihi *LU@|L?t |@| @hi ?ThL|@M*i W| 4t|
|t Mi |hi |@| -E? 6E? w!itic | U@??L| Mi LT|4@* ?L| |L tihi
*LU@|L?t |@| }i?ih@|i Thi ThL| W? i^*Mh4 i |t @i -E? ' 6E? Lh R6+6e3?'+6e?(
kq+6 'e2?
6hL4 @ tLU@* TL?| Lu ic Liihc |i Mi?i| uhL4 tih?} *LU@|L??t }ih
|@? -E?c t?Ui @*tL |i UL?t4ih thT*t i?|iht |i i*u@hi u?U|L? #i?L|?}
<Qrwh wkdw zh qg d vlplodu dujxphqw lq wkh olwhudwxuh ri sulfh glvfulplqdwlrq> zlwkrxw sulfh glvfulplqdwlrq lw pd| zhoo eh rswlpdo qrw wr vhuyh vrph jurxsv ri frqvxphuv wkdw rwkhuzlvh kdyh d vxflhqwo| kljk zloolqjqhvv wr sd|1
2
|i tLU@* Mi?i| EUL?t4ih thT*t n ThL| Lu tih?} *LU@|L? | M) c i @i '
2EkR+nR+
e3|'
k2q+
+e3| 5?Ui +' 2+6 i |t @i E| ' 2 Ekq+6+6e3|
Ai tLU@* Mi?i| Lu tih?} @?) }i? *LU@|L?|t |t |Ui @t *@h}i @t |i hii?i uLh |i 4L?LTL*t| Lu tih?} |i t@4i *LU@|L? OLiihc @*tL |i ULt| Lu tih?}
*LU@|L? | t |Ui @t *@h}i uLh |i tLU@* T*@??ih(
E| '+e|' 2+6e|
6Lh |i *@t| *LU@|L? | 4t| Mi |hi |@| E| 'E|c @?_ i |t tii |@| |i 4L?LTL*t| @?_ tLU@* T*@??ih ** ULLti |i t@4i ULih@}i E?6E+6 '?WE+W W|
tL*_ Mi ?L|i_c |L}c |@| |i hi}L?@* ULih@}i ThL_i_ M) |i 4L?LTL*t| t
|LL t4@** uhL4 @ tLU@* TL?| Lu ic }i? |i ^@?||) ULti? M) |i 4L?LTL*t|
At U@? Mi tii? uhL4 i^@|L? E.c U tLt |@| ?WE+W ?WE+6 Ai hi@tL?
) |i tLU@* T*@??ih L*_ ULLti @ }ih hi}L?@* ULih@}i |@? |i 4L?LTL*t|
uLh @?) }i? ^@?||)c t t4T*) |@| |i 4L?LTL*t| _Lit ?L| U@hi @ML| UL?t4ih thT*t W? T@h|U*@hc |t 4i@?t |@| E?6 : E?6 uLh + ' +6 Bi? +6c
|i tLU@* T*@??ih L*_ |t ULLti @ }ih hi}L?@* ULih@}i tU |@| |i tLU@*
Mi?i| t i^@* |L |i ULt| Lu tih?} |i *@t| *LU@|L?f
e*}LTL*t|U UL4Ti||L?
6L**L?} khiTt @?_ 5Ui?!4@? EbH @ U@T@U|)UL?t|h@?i_ ThUi }@4i U@? Mi tL*i_ @t @ L?it|@}i Lh?L|}@4i W? |i MhL@_M@?_ 4@h!i| |i tTT*iht ?ii_ |L ULLti |i U@T@U|) Lu |i |h@?tTLh| ?i|Lh! ThLh |L |i ThUi Etii O@?ti?c bbbc @?_
6@*@Mih @?_ OL}i?_Lh?c 2fffAi U@T@U|) ULUi UL?tt|t Lu M*_?} L? Mih
43Wklv lv dqdorjrxv wr d uhvxow irxqg e| Vshqfh +4<:8,/ zkr vkrzv wkdw hyhq li d prqrsrolvw vkrxog kdyh lqfhqwlyhv wr xqghusurylgh surgxfw txdolw|/ wkh dfwxdo txdolw| ohyho fkrvhq e| d vrfldo sodqqhu dqg d prqrsrolvw pd| eh wkh vdph1 Jlyhq wkh prqrsrolvw*v rxwsxw ohyho/ krzhyhu/ wkh vrfldo sodqqhu pd| suhihu d kljkhu surgxfw txdolw|1 Zh zrxog olnh wr wkdqn Nduh S1 Kdjhq iru srlqwlqj rxw wklv dqdorj| wr xv1
?L_it Lh hi?|?} |h@?tTLh| u@U*|it ML| ? |i ?@|L?@* @?_ }*LM@* M@U!ML?i Ai tTT*ih Lu @UUitt |L |i W?|ih?i| |)TU@**) @i *L?} |ih4 UL?|h@U|t | tTT*iht Lu UL??iU||) |L |i }*LM@* M@U!ML?i wc uLh ?t|@?Uic @i @ i )i@h UL?|h@U|
| `Lh*_L4 Ehi4ihc +i) @?_ AhL*ic 2fff Oi?Uic i @tt4i |@| |ihi t Lh?L| UL4Ti||L? Mi|ii? 6 t)44i|hU h4t `i uh|ih uL**L @hhLt i| @*
E2ff @?_ @tt4i |@| i@U h4 Lgiht MhL@_M@?_ UL??iU|L? uhL4 *LU@|L? 3ihL T |L tL4i i?_L}i?Lt*) }i? *LU@|L? ? Etii @*tL *@|ih _tUttL?
#i?L|i M) +E| |i ^@?||) tTT*i_ M) h4 c @?_ *i| +3E| _i?L|i |i ^@?
||it uhL4 i@U Lu |i L|ih E6 h4t `| ?uLh4 ThUit @?_ L*}LTL*t|U UL4Ti||L? |i ThL| *ii* Lu h4 i^@*t
Z ' 4@
?c +
] ?
f dkq+o%E|_|
] ?
f %E|e2|_|
c E
ihi +'+n E6+3 W?tih|?}+ uLh % @?_ 4@ 43?} E | hitTiU| |L + @?_ ? }i |i ht| Lh_ih UL?_|L?t Etii @TTi?_
+ ' k2qE6+3Ee3?3qE6U?
f %3E|_|e?
2q Ee
@?_
? '
2*?kq+qE6+3
ED
W? @ t)44i|hU i^*Mh4 i @i%3E| ' %E| 'e3|+c@?_ |tU?
f %3E|_|' +Ee? W?tih|?} uLh |t ? Ee i ?_ |@|
+SE? '
qE n6 Eke?c ES
*i i^@|L? ED 4T*it
?SE+ '
2*?kq6+
E.
L4M??} i^@|L?t ES @?_ E. i U@? i Thitt+S@?_ ?S ? |ih4t Lu T@h@4i|iht L?*)G
?S' *?6ns
62n E6n ek*
2E6n EH
e
+S ' 2q
5 7 2
6n k 6nt
622n ekE6n E6n 2
6
8 Eb
W| t i@t*) ihi_ |@| _?S*_6 f @?_ _E6+S*_6 :f| _gihi?|*)c }ih UL4Ti||L? hi_Uit ML| ThUit @?_ |i ?4Mih Lu *LU@|L?t |@| @hi tihi_ `i
|t @i |i uL**L?} hit*|G
hLTLt|L? G 5TTLti |@| |i |i*iUL44?U@|L? h4t 4t| U@h}i |i t@4i ThUi ? @** |i *LU@|L?t |@| |i) tihi W? |t U@ti @ }ih ?4Mih Lu h4t 4T*it |@| ThUit @hi hi_Ui_c *i |i hi}L?@* ULih@}i _iUhi@tit Mi*L |i tLU@*
LT|44
Ai i*u@hi 4T*U@|L?t Lu hLTLt|L? @hi **t|h@|i_ ? 6}hi Ai *iu|
@?_ t_i T@?i* Lu |i 6}hi 4i@thit 6 L? |i Lh3L?|@* @ t @?_ |i Lh?L|
?4Mih Lu *LU@|L?t tihi_ hi*@|i |L tLU@**) LT|4@* ?4Mih Lu *LU@|L?t L? |i ih|U@* @ t E?SE6*?WAt }hi **t|h@|it |@| |i hi}L?@* ULih@}i t _iUhi@t
?} ? 6 W?Uhi@ti_ UL4Ti||L? ** |t U*i@h*) @h4 tL4i TihTih@* *LU@|L?tc
@?_ |t t _i|h4i?|@* |L ?@|L?@* i*u@hi ? |i L|ih @?_c ?Uhi@ti_ UL4Ti
||L? hi_Uit UL?t4ih ThUit ? |Lti *LU@|L?t |@| @hi t|** tihi_c @?_ |t @t
@ TLt|i i*u@hi igiU| Ai h}|@?_ t_i T@?i* Lu 6}hi c U 4i@thit 6 L? |i Lh3L?|@* @ t @?_ ` L? |i ih|U@* @ tc |ihiuLhi tLt @ Uhi | @?
?ih|i_ NuLh4 Ai hi@tL? ) i*u@hi ?Uhi@tit ?|@**) t |@| ThUit @hi t}?u U@?|*) hi_Ui_ @t i 4Li uhL4 4L?LTL*) |L _LTL*) OLiihc @t t i** !?L?
uhL4 4UhLiUL?L4U |iLh)c |t igiU| MiUL4it ?Uhi@t?}*) _@4Ti?i_ @t |i ?4 Mih Lu UL4Ti||Lht ?Uhi@tit W? |i 6}hi |t 4i@?t |@| |i ?i}@|i igiU| Lu @
*Lih hi}L?@* ULih@}i _L4?@|it @t |i ?4Mih Lu h4t ?Uhi@tit Mi)L?_ 6 ' W| tL*_ Mi t|hitti_ |@| |t ?i}@|i igiU| 4t| _L4?@|i uLh tUi?|*) }
@*it Lu 6c ?_iTi?_i?| Lu T@h@4i|ih @*it At t 4Lt| i@t*) ?_iht|LL_ u i
@tt4i |@| 6 $ 4c ? U U@ti? $f Wu i @_ @*tL |@!i? ?|L UL?t_ih@|L?
44Wkh iroorzlqj sdudphwhuv duh xvhg lqq doo wkh jxuhv= @ 8> @ 4 dqg!@ 4=Lq wkh ohiw0kdqg vlgh sdqho ri Iljxuh 4 dqg lq Iljxuh 5 wkh qxpehu ri upv +p,lv vhw htxdo wr ;1
D
|i u@U| |@| |ihi @hi tL4i i_ ULt|tc |i ?i}@|i igiU|t Lu ?Uhi@t?} 6 L*_
@i Mii? ii? *@h}ih2
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0 2 4 6 8 10
5HJ LRQD OFRY HUDJ HUH ODWLY HWR Q
1XPEHURIILUPV 30% P
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0 2 4 6 8 10
5HJ LRQD OFRY HUDJ HUH ODWLY HWR Q
1XPEHURIILUPV
P 1.3
1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 P
:
1XPEHURIILUPV :HO
IDUH
1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 P
:
1XPEHURIILUPV :HO
IDUH
6}hi G L4Ti||L?c hi}L?@* ULih@}i @?_ i*u@hi
ee Ai hi}*@|Lh ti|t ULih@}i ThLh |L UL4Ti||L?
W? Th?UT*ic |i }Lih?4i?| U@? @U| @t @ ht|4Lih | hitTiU| |L hi}L?@* UL ih@}i W? |i*iUL44?U@|L?t i tii |@| }Lih?4i?|t Lu|i? @i |i @4M|L? |L _L tLc @?_ |@| |i) 4@?_@|i |i h4t |L ThL_i @UUitt |L @ 4?44 }iL}h@T U@* ULih@}i At ULih@}i hi}*@|L? t |)TU@**) UL4M?i_ | @ hi^hi4i?|
Lu ?uLh4 ThU?} |hL} N?iht@* 5ihUi M*}@|L?t EN5c tii i} w@gL?|
@?_ AhL*i E2fffc +Lh_@? E2ffc @hhLt i| @* E2ffc @?_ V@**i|| E2fff W?
|i 4LM*i |i*iTL?) 4@h!i|c uLh ?t|@?Uic i UL44L?*) tii |@| |i h4t |@| @hi Mi?} }h@?|i_ @ *Ui?ti @hi hi^hi_ |L Lgih @UUitt | @ 4?44 ULih@}i
W? |t tiU|L? i @tt4i @ |Lt|@}i }@4i ihi |i hi}*@|Lh ti|t |i ULih@}i
@| t|@}i L?i @?_ ihi |i h4t ULLti ^@?||it @| t|@}i |L t t@* ? |t
!?_ Lu }@4i i t|@h| | |i tiUL?_ t|@}iG
45Li wkhuh duh {hg frvwv ri vhuylqj hdfk orfdwlrq/ dqg wkh odvw orfdwlrq vhuyhg e| wkh prqrsrolvw lv uhodwlyho| odujh dqg surwdeoh/ lw pd| kdsshq wkdw wkh vdph uhjlrqdo fryhudjh zloo eh vdph dovr lq d gxrsro|1 Krzhyhu/ zh vkrxog vwloo h{shfw wkdw wkh uhjlrqdo fryhudjh idoov dv d vxflhqw qxpehu ri upv hqwhu1 Wklv lv sduwlfxoduo| wuxh vlqfh wkh pdujlqdo orfdwlrqv duh/ mxvw/ pdujlqdo1
46Uhjduglqj wkh doorfdwlrq ri olfhqvhv iru wkh wklug jhqhudwlrq preloh v|vwhp +XPWV lq Hxursh,/
vhyhudo frxqwulhv kdyh plqlpxp fryhudjh uhtxluhphqwv lq wkhlu olfhqvhv1 Wkh jryhuqphqwv wkdw doorfdwh wkh XPWV0olfhqfhv wkurxjk %ehdxw|0frqwhvwv% vhhp wr jlyh pruh dwwhqwlrq wr fryhudjh uhtxluhphqwv wkdq zkhuh wkh olfhqvhv duh doorfdwhg wkurxjk dxfwlrqv1
S
5|@}i 2 6Lh @ }i? hi}L?@* ULih@}ic ?c|i 4@ 43@|L? ThLM*i4 Lu h4 t Z ' 4@
+
] ?
f dkq+o%E|_|
] ?
f %E|e2|_|
Ai hitTL?ti M) |i |i*iUL44?U@|L? h4t |L |t hi^hi4i?| t |i t@4i @t
|@| }i? M) i^@|L? Ee
5|@}i Ai }Lih?4i?| ti|t hi}L?@* ULih@}i tU |@| i*u@hi t 4@ 43i_
`i ti |i t)44i|h) Lu |i h4t @?_ *i|+S'+SG
` ' 4@
?
2q62E+S2Ee3? n Ekq6+S6+SEe3?6+SEe?
}i?
+SE? '
qE n6Eke?
6hL4 |i ht| Lh_ih UL?_|L? | uL**Lt |@| |i hi}L?@* ULih@}i ULti? M) |i hi}*@|Lh @| t|@}i t _i?|U@* |L |i tLU@* LT|44c tU |@|
? '?W ' *? ns
n Hk*
e E2f
W| tL*_ Mi ?L|i_ |@| _i |L |i UL?i |) Lu |i ULt| u?U|L?c MhL@_M@?_
@UUitt MiUL4it 4Lhi i Ti?ti i???Uhi@tit M?_?} hi^hi4i?| Lu hi}L?@*
ULih@}i t |t M@_ ?it uLh UL?t4iht ? ?uh@4@h}?@* *LU@|L?t
Ai i*u@hi igiU|t Lu @ hi}L?@* ULih@}i hi^hi4i?| t **t|h@|i_ ? 6}hi 2 Oihi i @i @tt4i_ |@| 6 ' Hc ? U U@ti i*u@hi t *Lih | L*}LTL*t
|U UL4Ti||L? |@? ? |i i^*Mh4 | @ 4L?LTL*) u |ihi t ?L ULih@}i hi^hi4i?|e 6ht|c |i 6}hi tLt |@| UL?t4ih thT*t t ?Uhi@t?} ? |i
?4Mih Lu *LU@|L?t |@| @hi UL??iU|i_ |L |i MhL@_M@?_ uLh? 5E?Sc ?W 5iUL?_c
@?_ Tih@Tt 4Lhi thTht?}*)c i @*tL tii |@| |i t@4i t |hi uLh |i ThL| *ii*
`@| |i hi}*@|Lh _Lit i? tTiUu)?} @ M?_?} *Lih ML?_ L??c t |L tL*i @ ULLh_?@|L? ThLM*i4 Ai L*}LTL*t|U h4t Thiuih |i t@4i ThUi @?_ |i t@4i hi}L?@* ULih@}i @t |i L?i ULti? M) @ 4L?LTL*t| Eic ?'?Wc M| ?__@**)
47Vhh dovr wkh uljkw0kdqg vlgh sdqho ri Iljxuh 41
.
| t ThL|@M*i uLh i@U Lu |i h4t |L hi_Ui |i ThUit |i) U@h}i @?_ |i ?4Mih Lu *LU@|L?t |i) tihiD
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0
1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2
QQF QQF :&6Pπ
5HJLRQDOFRYHUDJHUHODWLYHWR&RXUQRW 3URILW
&RQVXPHUVXUSOXV :HOIDUH
: :PRQ
6}hi 2G ,giU|t Lu hi^hi4i?|t L? hi}L?@* ULih@}i
hLTLt|L? eG ) hi^h?} |i |i*iUL44?U@|L? h4t |L ThL_i @ *@h}ih hi}L?@* ULih@}i |@? |i Lh?L| tL*|L? ML| UL?t4ih thT*t @?_ |i ThL|
*ii* Lu |i h4t ?Uhi@ti T |L |i 4L?LTL*) ULih@}i
ee Ai h4t ti| ULih@}i ThLh |L UL4Ti||L?
`i @i UL4T@hi_ @ tL*|L? ihi |i hi}*@|Lh @U|t @t @ ht|4Lih @?_ ti|t
|i ULih@}i ThLh |L UL4Ti||L? | @? ?hi}*@|i_ t|hU|hi ihi |i h4t ULLti ULih@}i @?_ ^@?||it t4*|@?iLt*) Lhi hi@*t|U@**)c |i h4t ** ti|
ULih@}i ThLh |L ^@?||it ? |i ?hi}*@|i_ 4@h!i| |LL 5L ? Lh_ih |L UiU!
|@| | t |i ?|ihi?|L? uhL4 |i }Lih?4i?|c @?_ ?L| |i |4?} Lu |i }@4iTih ti |@| tL*it |i ULLh_?@|L? ThLM*i4c i ?L @tt4i |@| |i h4t ti| ULih@}i
@| t|@}i @?_ |i? UL4Ti|i @ *@ Lh?L| @| t|@}i 2 `i @tt4i |@| |i h4t
48E| lqvhuwlqj +49,lqwr wkh h{suhvvlrq irul lw lv hdvlo| irxqg wkdw surw lv pd{lpl}hg zkhq q@q=
H
@hi hi^hi_ |L ti| @ ?uLh4 ThUi @?_c uLh t4T*U|)c i *i| 6 ' 2 Nt?} |@|
%3E| ' e3|+3 | uL**Lt uhL4 i^@|L? Ee |@| |i t|@}i 2 i^*Mh4 t }i?
M)
+SE?Sc?S3 '
qEkne?32e? ihi c' c2 @?_ 9' E2
Ai UhLttT@h|@* _ih@|i Lu h4<t ThL|u?U|L? t ?i}@|ic i EY2ZS*Y+Y+3 f Ai ^@?||it ti| M) |i h4t @| t|@}i 2 @hi |ihiuLhi t|h@|i}U tMt|||it @t
? @ UL?i?|L?@* Lh?L| }@4i E*Lc Bi@?@!LT*Ltc @?_ k*i4Tihihc bHD `i tii |@| _+S*_?3 : fc tU |@| h4 4@) hi_Ui |i ^@?||) Lgihi_ M) h4 M) hi_U?} |t L? ULih@}i ? 5?Ui |i h4t< ^@?||it @hi t|h@|i}U tMt|
||itc |i) ** @U|@**) _L tLc @?_ |i ULih@}i ULti? M) |i h4t L*_ Mi *Lih
? @ |L t|@}i }@4i |@? | t4*|@?iLt*) ti| ULih@}i @?_ ^@?||) Etii @*tL
@TTi?_ Oi?Uic | t |i ?|ihi?|L? uhL4 |i }Lih?4i?| |@| tL*it |i ULLh _?@|L? ThLM*i4 W?_ii_c M) uLhU?} |i h4t |L ThL_i @ *@h}ih hi}L?@* ULih@}i
|@? |i 4@h!i| i^*Mh4 |i hi}*@|Lh tL*it @ ThtL?iht< _*i44@ uLh |i h4t
D 5L4i UL?U*_?} hi4@h!t
Ot|LhU@**)c |i*iUL44?U@|L? ?U4Mi?|t @i Mii? hi^hi_ |L U@h}i ?uLh4 ThUit |hL}L| |i UL?|h) | |i t@4i |4ic }Lih?4i?|t tii! |L Thii?| ? _*) } ThUit M) ?Uhi@t?} UL4Ti||L? W? |t T@Tih i @i @?@*)3i_ |i igiU|
Lu @? 4T*U| Lh i T*U| hi^hi4i?| Lu ?uLh4 ThU?} UL4M?i_ | UL4Ti||L?
? |i 4@h!i| uLh MhL@_M@?_ @UUittc U t U@h@U|ih3i_ M) |i u@U| |@| | t UL?
t_ih@M*) 4Lhi i Ti?ti |L tihi UL?t4iht ? hh@* @hi@t |@? UL?t4iht ? hM@?
@hi@t `i @i tL? |@| i*u@hi 4@) _iUhi@ti @t |i ?4Mih Lu h4t ?Uhi@titc t?Ui |i hi}L?@* ULih@}i ** Mi hi_Ui_ 6h|ih4Lhic i @i @*tL tL? |@|
|i }Lih?4i?| 4@) Thii?| |i ?i}@|i igiU| uhL4 UL4Ti||L? M) ?|ihi??}
@?_ ti||?} @ ULih@}i hi^hi4i?| ThLh |L UL4Ti||L? W?|ihit|?}*)c |t ** @*tL Mi?i| |i h4t W? UL?|h@t|c u |i h4t ti| ULih@}i ThLh |L UL4Ti||L?c |i)
** ULLti @? ii? *Lih *ii* Lu ULih@}i |@? |i) L*_ @i _L?i | t4*|@
?iLt 4Lit Oi?Uic | t ?L| |i |4?} Lu |i }@4i Tih tic M| |i ?|ihi?|L? Lu
b
|i }Lih?4i?| |@| 4@) ?Uhi@ti i*u@hi | _gihi?|*)c u |i }Lih?4i?| @?|t
?uLh4 ThUitc | tL*_ ti| @ UL4T*i|i N?iht@* 5ihUi M*}@|L? EN5 |@|
hi^hit ML| @ ?uLh4 ThUi @?_ @ }i? ULih@}i
5?Ui Lh 4L_i* t ih) t|)*3i_c |ihi 4@) Mi @ ?ii_ uLh tL4i UL44i?|t L? Lh
!i) @tt4T|L?t Lt| 4TLh|@?|*)c i @i @tt4i_ |@| |i UL4Ti|?} h4t @hi t)44i|hU ? tiih@* _4i?tL?t 6ht|c |i) @hi t)44i|hU ? |ih |4?} Lu |i
?it|4i?|c tU |@| ?L h4 @t @ ht| 4Lih @_@?|@}i | hi}@h_ |L |i ?it|
4i?| ? ULih@}i At @tt4T|L? tii4t hi@*t|U u |ihi t UL4Ti||L? Mi|ii?
tiih@* u@U*|)M@ti_ h4t |@| @*hi@_) @i UL?i?|L?@* ?@hhLM@?_ ?i|Lh!t ?
|i }i? @hi@ 5iih@* @?@*)t|t @h}i |@| |t t |i 4Lt| *!i*) tUi?@hL ? |i MhL@_M@?_ 4@h!i| uLh hit_i?|@* tihtc t?Ui | ** Mi UL?|hL**i_ M) |i i t|?}
u@U*|)M@ti_ h4t |i*iTL?) ThL_iht @?_ U@M*iAV ThL_iht At t _i |L |i } TuhL?| ?it|4i?|t Lu ?i hi*?i u@U*|it @?_ |i TLttM*|) Lu ?Uhi@t?}
|i U@T@U|) Lu i t|?} ?i|Lh!t Ai @tt4T|L? ** @*tL Mi hi@*t|U u ?L?i Lu
|i h4t @i i t|?} ?i|Lh!t Lh |i i t|?} ?i|Lh!t U@??L| Mi T}h@_i_ |L MhL@_M@?_ At t TLttM*) |i Uhhi?| t|@|L? hi}@h_?} ?it|4i?|t ? |h_
}i?ih@|L? 4LM*i t)t|i4t ENA5 ? ,hLTi OLiihc ? 4@?) UL?|hit |i ULih@}i Lu |i i t|?} |i*iTL?i ?i|Lh! t }ih |@? |i ULih@}i Lu i t|?}
U@M*iAV?i|Lh!t Oi?Uic |i |i*iTL?i ?U4Mi?| 4@) @i @ ht|4Lih @_@?
|@}ic T@h|U*@h*) ? 4@?) hh@* *LU@|L?t Atc |ihi t ?ii_ uLh 4Lhi hiti@hU hi}@h_?} |i 4T*U@|L?t Lu L?i h4 @?} @ ht|4Lih @_@?|@}i ? |i ULUi Lu ULih@}i `i? h4t ti| ULih@}i ti^i?|@**)c |i hit*| 4@) Mi @*|ihi_c @?_
i 4@) i TiU| |@| tL4i h4t UL?Ui?|h@|i |ih @U||it ? hM@? @hi@t
5iUL?_c i @i @tt4i_ |@| |ihi t UL4Ti||L? Mi|ii? ih|U@**) ?|i}h@|i_
u@U*|)M@ti_ h4t |@| ?it| ? |ih L? MhL@_M@?_ @UUitt ?i|Lh! W| t @? LTi?
^it|L? i|ih |i 4@h!i| ** Mi _L4?@|i_ M) UL4Ti|?} ih|U@**) ?|i}h@|i_
h4t Lh M) ih|U@**) tiT@h@|i_ h4t |@| hi?| @UUitt uhL4 |i u@U*|)M@ti_ h4
@t @? ?T| W? |i *@||ih U@ti |ihi ** Mi UL4Ti||L? Mi|ii? u@U*|)M@ti_
h4t @?_ ?L?u@U*|) h4t hi?|?} @UUitt uhL4 |i uLh4ih |)Ti At ** hit*|
? @ 4Lhi @t)44i|hU 4@h!i| t|hU|hi AL_@)c i tii |@| |i |i*iUL44?U@|L?
?U4Mi?|t @hi LM*}@|i_ |L Lgih @UUitt |L ?L?u@U*|)M@ti_ h@*tc *i |i U@M*i 2f
AV ThL_iht @hi ?L|
Ah_c i @i @tt4i_ |@| |i h4t UL4T*i|i*) _T*U@|i |ih ?i|Lh! ULih
@}i | |i ht| }*@?Uic |t 4@) Mi @? ?hi@*t|U @tt4T|L? | u |i UL?i |) Lu ULt|t t t}?U@?|c |i h4t ** ThLM@M*) _L tL Ai) t|@h| | |i Ui@Tit|
@?_ 4Lt| TLT*@|i_ *LU@|L?t Etii @*tL @hhLt i| @*c 2fff W? |i ?u@?U) Lu |i MhL@_M@?_ @UUitt 4@h!i| i ?L tii tL4i i_i?Ui Lu |t Ai MhL@_M@?_ T }h@_it @hi UL?Ui?|h@|i_ ? hM@? *LU@|L?t t4*@h i @4T*i t |i 4LM*i 4@h!i|
? tiih@* UL?|hit ihi |i h4t _T*U@|i |ih ULih@}i @*4Lt| UL4T*i|i*)
S TTi?_
BiL}h@TU@* ULih@}i i? ThUit _gih Mi|ii? *LU@|L?t
L?LTL*)G
Ai LT|43@|L? ThLM*i4 Lu |i 4L?LTL*t| i^@*t Z' 4@
%E|c?
] ?
f RE%E|%E|_|
] ?
f e2|%E|_|
E22
5L*?} E22 i ?_ |@| YZ*Y%E| ' f )i*_t |i 6 RE%E|%E| nRE%E|
e2| ' f L|?} |@| RE%E| ' k q%E|e| @?_ RE%E| ' qe| i |t @i
%E| ' 2q k
e| e|
At 4T*it |@|RE| ' 2Ekne2|c Lh +6E| '
2q
ke2|
c E2
ihi tTihtUhT| 6 ?_U@|it 4L?LTL*)
Ai tiUL?_ 6 uhL4 E22c YZ*Y? ' fc uh|ih 4T*it |@| RE%E?%E?
e2?%E? ' f ) ?tih|?} uhL4 E2 i |t ?_ |@| |i ?4Mih Lu *LU@|L?t tihi_ M) |i 4L?LTL*t| t i^@* |L
?6 ' 2*?k
E2e
L|i |@| UL?t4iht ? |i 4Lt| TLT*@|i_ *LU@|L?t ** Mi 4Lt| @h4i_ M) 4L?LTL*) ThU?}c t?Ui
RE|RWE| '
2Eke2| ', _ERE|RWE|
_| 'e2| f 2
*}LTL*t|U UL4Ti||L?G
#i?L|i M)+E| |i ^@?||) tTT*i_ M) h4c @?_ *i|+3E| _i?L|i |i ^@?|
|it uhL4 i@U Lu |i L|ih E6 h4t `i |t @i+E| '+E|nE6+3E|c tL |@| h4 u@Uit |i ?ihti _i4@?_ Uhi RE+E|c +3E| ' kqE+E| n E6
+3E| Ai ThL| *ii* Lu h4 t |t Z '
] ?
f RE+E|c +3E|%E|_|
] ?
f %E|e2|_|
#i??} %E| %E| n E6%3E| ' e3|+E| i U@? t|@|i |i 4@ 43@|L?
ThLM*i4 Lu h4 @t 4@ %c?
] ?
f
kqd%E| n E6%3E|oe|
%E|_|
] ?
f %E|e2|_|
Ai ht| Lh_ih UL?_|L? | hitTiU| |L%E| }it t%E| ' dkE6%3E|e|e|o*E2qe| Nt?} |@| @** h4t @hi t)44i|hU ? i^*Mh4c @?_ tMt|||?}+ uLh%ci ?_
|@| EtTihtUhT| S uLh Lh?L|
+SE| ' qE6n
ke2|
E2D
`i *!iti ?_ |@| |i ?4Mih Lu *LU@|L?t tihi_ i^@*t
?S' 2*?k
E2S
Oi?Uic i @i |@| ?W '?6 '?S ?_ih ?L??uLh4 ThU?}
#ih@|L?t Lu |i 6t | L*}LTL*t|U UL4Ti||L? i? ThUit @hi ?uLh4 Nt?} |@| %E| 'e3|+'%E| n E6%3E| i U@? h|i i^@|L? E @t
Z ' ] ?
f dkq+o
e3|+E6%3E|
_|
] ?
f
e3|+E6%3E|
e2|_|
At U@? uh|ih Mi 4L_i_ |L Z '
k+q+2 ] ?
f e3|_|nq+E6 ] ?
f %3E|_|
] ?
f kE6%3E|_|
] ?
f
e3|+E6%3E|
e2|_|
22
`i |t ?_ |@| YZ*Y+ ' f 4T*it dk2qE+n E6+3o
e3?
nqE6 ] ?
f %3E|_|Ee? ' fc U U@? Mi hih||i? |L }i i^@|L? Ee
6hL4 i^@|L? E i uh|ih ?_ |@| YZ*Y? ' f 4T*it dkqE+n E6+3o%E?%E?e2? ' fc U U@? Mi h||i? @t ? i^@|L? ED
hLLu |@| ?S ?S
5TTLti |@| i @i @ |Lt|@}i }@4i ihi |i h4t t4*|@?iLt*) ULLti ULih@}i @| t|@}i L?i @?_ ^@?||it @| t|@}i |L Ai tL*|L? |L |i tiUL?_ t|@}i t }i? M) +SE?Sc?S3 uhL4 i^@|L? E2 W?tih|?} uLh +SE?Sc?S3 ?|L |i ThL|
u?U|L?t uLh |i h4tc i ?_ |@| |i 4@ 43@|L? ThLM*i4 @| t|@}i L?i i^@*t 4@ ?
bqEkne?3ne?Ekne?32e?Ee3?
qEkne?32e?Ee?
5L*?} |tc @?_ t?} |@| |i h4t @hi t)44i|hUc i ?_ |@|
?S' *? ns
b n Sk*
H
W? |i }@4i ihi ^@?||) @?_ ULih@}i ihi ti| t4*|@?iLt*) i @i ?S'
*?2ns
en2k*
S uLh 6 ' 2 EUu i^@|L? EH wi||?} {? ' ?S?S i ?_ |@|
{? ' f u k* ' @?_ |@| _E{?*_Ek* f uLh k* : f 5?Ui k* : | uL**Lt |@| ?S ?S",#
U!?L*i_}4i?|t
Ai @|Lht t |L |@?! kJ@hi O@}i?c h? O@?ti?c a@? v?}i 5@?_c w@ht 5h}@h_ @?_ ti4?@h T@h|UT@?|t @| |i Lhi}@? 5ULL* Lu ,UL?L4Ut @?_
t?itt _4?t|h@|L?c ,+W, 2ffc #M*? 5iT|i4Mih 2ffc _@?Ui_ Lh!tLT
? hi}*@|L? @?_ UL4Ti||L?G L4Ti||i U@**i?}i ? |i ?i|Lh! ?_t|hitc 2f|
@??@* UL?uihi?Uic i??t)*@?@ @) 2ffc @?_ W?uLh4@|L? @?_ L44?U@|L?t AiU?L*L}itc ~,`L?uihi?Uic @??i4 a?i 2ffc uLh @*@M*i UL44i?|t
2
. +iuihi?Uit
@hhLtc i_hL c 5|igi? OLih?}c @?_ AL44@tL V@**i|| E2ffG N?iht@*
5ihUi @?_ ,?|h)G Ai +L*i Lu N?uLh4 hU?} @?_ Lih@}i L?t|h@?|tcaLh?@*
Lu +i}*@|Lh) ,UL?L4Utc uLh|UL4?}
*Lc aihi4)c aL? Bi@?@!LT*Ltc @?_ @* k*i4Tihih EbHDG *|4@h!i|
*}LTL*)G 5|h@|i}U 5Mt|||it @?_ L4T*i4i?|tc aLh?@* Lu L*|U@* ,UL?L4) bc eHHD
*@h!c #@_ # Ebbb@G W4T*U@|L?t Lu wLU@* wLLT AiU?L*L}) uLh 6|hi W?
_t|h) 5|hU|hi W?G 5 , B**i|| @?_ W VL}i*t@?} Ei_tG L4Ti||L?c +i}*@|L?c
@?_ L?ih}i?Uic w,c wL?_L?
*@h!c #@_ # EbbbMG O}5Tii_ #@|@ +@Uit OL4i 5Ui?|U 4ihU@?
U|LMih bbb
6@*@Mihc Bih@*_ + @?_ ht|@@? OL}i?_Lh? E2fffG Ai @h!i| 5|hU|hi Lu hL@_M@?_ Ai*iUL44?U@|L?tc Ai aLh?@* Lu W?_t|h@* ,UL?L4Utc jwVWWWc fD2b
hi4ihc a@U^itc @|hU! +i)c @?_ ai@? AhL*i E2fffG L??iU||) ? |i L4 4ihU@* W?|ih?i|cAi aLh?@* Lu W?_t|h@* ,UL?L4Utc jwVWWWc ee.2
B**i||c 5@hL? , @?_ ,4) Ati?} E2ffG t)44i|hU +i}*@|L? L? 5|ihL_tG L4Ti||L? ? 6Mih |L |i OL4ic hiti?|i_ @| Ai A+ 2ff
B**i||c 5@hL? , Ebb.G L??iU|?} OL4it |L |i W?|ih?i|G ? ,?}?iih?}
Lt| L_i* Lu @M*i t W5# W?G #4Lh| @?_ a #h)_i? Ei_tG Ai ,UL?L4Ut Lu |i W?uLh4@|L? 5LU@|)c w i4MLh}
O@?ti?c h? EbbbG L4Ti||L? @?_ hL@_M@?_ NT}h@_it ? @ Vih|U@**) 5iT@h@|i_ Ai*iUL44?U@|L?t @h!i| Ai*i?Lh +:#c + 22%bb
O@t4@?c aihh) c a Bhi}Lh) 5_@!c @?_ O@* a 5?}ih E2ffG @M*i L_i4t
@?_ #5wG hL@_M@?_ W?|ih?i| UUitt uLh +it_i?|@* t|L4ihtc Ai 4ihU@?
,UL?L4U +iic @Tiht @?_ hLUii_?}tc bc f2f.
OLih?}c 5|igi? E2ffG N?iht@* 5ihUi M*}@|L?tG 5L*_ Ai) Mi W4TLti_
L? ,?|h@?|tqc 4@?tUhT|c N?iht_@_i L@ _i wtML@
khiTtc #@_ @?_ aLti 5Ui?!4@? EbbbG "@?||) hiUL44|4i?| @?_
2e
ih|h@?_ L4Ti||L? )i*_ Lh?L| |UL4it Ai i** aLh?@* Lu ,UL?L4Utc ec 2S.
w@gL?|c ai@?a@U^it @?_ ai@? AhL*i E2fffG L4Ti||L? ? Ai*iUL44?U@
|L?c Ai WA hittc @4Mh_}ic @tt@Uti||t
@U!i@tL?c aighi) EbbbG W?it|4i?| ? @M*i hL@_M@?_ W?uh@t|hU|hiG Ti? UUitt t L| @? Mt|@U*ic @@*@M*i uhL4 TihtL?@*4Ui_%44%
i|!LUc v4 @?_ +iMiUU@ #i Lt|ih E2fffG hL@_M@?_ UUittG i t?itt
L_i*tc 4c 5iT|i4Mih 2fff
*Ttc wLt EbHG Ai ,UL?L4Ut Lu hUi #tUh4?@|L?c @4Mh_}i N?
iht|) hittc wL?_L?
+Lh_@?c U@i* O E2ffG N?iht@* +it_i?|@* Ai*iTL?i 5ihUit W?G @ic
c 5 @4_@hc @?_ W VL}i*t@?} Ei_tG O@?_MLL! Lu Ai*iUL44?U@|L?t ,UL
?L4Utc Lh|OL**@?_c uLh|UL4?}
5Ti?Uic U@i* Eb.DG L?LTL*)c "@*|) @?_ +i}*@|L? i** aLh?@* Lu ,UL?L4Ut Sc e.e2b
5Ti|@c a@4it E2fff@G O@?_U@TT?} |i +@Ui uLh |i w@t| *iqG h|^i Lu |i Ti? UUitt +*it uLh hL@_M@?_ *@|uLh4t v@*i aLh?@*t L? +i}*@|L?c
.c efb
5Ti|@c a@4it E2fffMG Ai Vih|U@* #4i?tL? Lu @M*i Ti? UUitt N?
iht|) Lu L*Lh@_L w@ +iic . Eec b.Dff
AhL*ic ai@? EbHHG Ai AiLh) Lu W?_t|h@* h}@?3@|L?c Ai WA hitt V@**i||c AL44@tL E2fffG W?|hL_U|L?G 5)4TLt4 L? ?iht@* tihUi LM*}@|L? @?_ UL4Ti||L?c W?uLh4@|L? ,UL?L4Ut ?_ L*U) E2c 2fD2f
V@h@?c O@* EbHDG hUi #tUh4?@|L? @?_ 5LU@* `i*u@hi 4ihU@? ,UL
?L4U +iic .Dc H.fH.D
V@h@?c O@* EbHbG hUi #tUh4?@|L? W?G + `**} @?_ + 5U4@*@?tiic O@?_MLL! Lu W?_t|h@* h}@?3@|L?c Lh|OL**@?_
2D