Wage and profitability: Norwegian manufacturing 1967-1998

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Economic theories of imperfectly competitive labour markets predict that wages are linked to profits. In spite of this, profit variables are not explicitly specified in empirical models of wage formation that otherwise are appealing. Does this mean that theory overplays the role of profitability in wage formation? The answer is probably not: Using Norwegian wage formation as an example, we model the dereminants of profitability within a vector autoregressive model and show that existing wage equations that have been successful empirically in fact contain a close linkage between wage setting and profits.

.H\ZRUGV Cointegration, incomes policy, profitability, rate-of-return, vector autoregressive model, wage formation.

-(/FODVVLILFDWLRQ E2, E64, J31, J51.

$FNQRZOHGJHPHQW Versions of this paper have been presented at the Conference

"Macroeconomic Transmission Mechanisms" at the Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, April 1999, and in seminars at Statistics Norway and at the University of Oslo. Comments from participants on these occasions are gratefully

acknowledged. Discussions with and comments from Ådne Cappelen, Kåre Johansen, Bjørn Naug, and Fredrik Wulfsberg have been very helpful.

$GGUHVV Roger Bjørnstad, Statistics Norway, Research Department. E-mail:

[email protected]

Ragnar Nymoen, University of Oslo, Department of Economics. P.O.B. 1095 Blindern, N-0317 Oslo. E-mail: [email protected]

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Telephone: +47 62 88 55 00 Telefax: +47 62 88 55 95

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vwxglhv wkdw wkhuh lv qr zlwklq txduwhu hhfw ri FSL0lq dwlrq/ dqg wkdw wkh uvw odjv ri {RS kdyh kxjh hhfwv dv fdswxuhg e| wkh fH hodvwlflw| ri wkh {2R|3 yduldeoh1 G|qdplf krprjhqhlw| fdq eh lpsrvhg rq wkh vshflfdwlrq lq Wdeoh 4/ vlqfh wkh uhvwulfwlrq rq{S|3dqg{2R|3lv qrw uhmhfwhg vwdwlvwlfdoo| +whvw zkhwkhufH2en 2fHf2 ' ef.Sglhu vljqlfdqwo| iurpe= wkh Zdog0vwdwlvwlf lv²E ' ffdfDHo1 Wkh zhgjh0frh!flhqw kdv ehhq uhvwulfwhg wr }hur +wkh whvw iru dgglqj d zhgjh whup

44

(12)

|lhogv8Ec ' fdfDHo,1

Surgxfwlylw| jurzwk lv dovr dyhudjhg/ lq wkh irup ri {+|/ shukdsv wr h{wudfw pruh shupdqhqw hhfwv1 Wkh whqghqf| wr surylgh ixoo vkruw0uxq zdjh frpshqvdwlrq iru wkh uhgxfwlrqv lq qrupdo krxuv +{?|, ryhu wkh vdpsoh/ lv fdswxuhg e| wkh xqlw| frh!flhqw ri +{?_|,1 { A lv wkh fkdqjh lq vrfldo frvw rq wkh xvh ri oderu/

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8Ec2 ' ffdfH.o1 Wkh hvwlpdwhg uhvlgxdo vwdqgdug huuruv duh 2fI iru wkh zdjh0vkduh vshflfdwlrq dqgHIiru wkh udwh0ri uhwxuq vshflfdwlrq1 Wkh uhvlgxdo gldjqrvwlf whvw vwdwlvwlfv dw wkh hqg ri wkh wdeoh lqfoxgh whvwv iru 81 rughu dxwrfru0 uhodwhg uhvlgxdov +8@oc3D/ iru qrupdoo| glvwulexwhg E²_{?_}/ dxwrfruuhodwhg vtxduhg uhvlgxdov +8_@oSc3e/ iru khwhurvfhgdvwlflw| gxh wr vtxduhv ri wkh uhjuhvvruv +8_e|

dqg qdoo| wkh uhjuhvvlrq vshflfdwlrq whvw +8oere|1 Wkh vwdwlvwlfv duh h{sodlqhg lq Grruqln dqg Khqgu| +4<<<,1 ⁶ Wkh| jlyh qr lqglfdwlrq ri uhvlgxdo plvvshflfdwlrq ri wkh prgho lq Wdeoh 4/ dqg wkh| fkdqjh olwwoh zkhq wkh zdjh0vkduh dqg udwh0ri0uhwxuq uhvwulfwlrqv duh lpsrvhg1

Iljxuh 4 jlyhv ylvxdo hylghqfh ri wkh vwdelolw| ri wkh wzr frpshwlqj vlpsol0

6Dv lqglfdwhg lq wkh Wdeoh/ wkh qrupdolw| whvw lv d Fkl0vtxduh whvwv/ wkh rwkhu whvwv duh I0 glvwulexwhg xqghu wkhlu uhvshfwlyh qxoo k|srwkhvhv1

(13)

fdwlrqv ri wkh htxdwlrq lq Wdeoh 41 Wkh uvw urz vkrzv wkh vhtxhqfh ri 40vwhs ROV uhvlgxdov zlwk 2 uhvlgxdo vwdqgdug huuruv + 2j lq wkh judsk,/ dqg wkh uhfxuvlyho|

hvwlpdwhg frh!flhqwv + lq wkh judskv, ri wkh odjjhg zdjh0vkduh wrjhwkhu zlwk 2 frh!flhqw vwdqgdug huuruv + 2re lq wkh judsk,1 Wkh vhfrqg urz vkrzv wkh vdph judskv iru wkh udwh0ri0uhwxuq vshflfdwlrq1

Lq vxp/ wkh zdjh0vkduh irupxodwlrq wkdw Mrkdqvhq +4<<8d, vkrzhg zdv dq hqfrpsdvvlqj prgho rq dqqxdo gdwd hqglqj lq 4<<3/ lv d gdwd frqjuxhqw prgho dovr rq rxu txduwhuo| dqg h{whqghg gdwd vhw1 Wkh prgho vkrzv d kljk ghjuhh ri vwdelolw|

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Vr idu zh kdyh exlow rq wkh h{lvwlqj vlqjoh htxdwlrq vwxglhv ri pdqxidfwxulqj zdjhv1 Wkh vwdwlvwlfdo whvwlqj uhvwv rq vhyhudo dvvxpswlrqv wkdw fdq eh whvwhg1 Iru h{dpsoh/ zh kdyh dvvxphg wkdw wkh orj0olqhdul}dwlrq ri wkh udwh ri uhwxuq lv UEf/

ru dowhuqdwlyho|/ wkdw wkh udwh0ri0uhwxuq dqg wkh qrq0olqhdu wudqvirup ri wkh udwh ri xqhpsor|phqw duh erwk UE exw frlqwhjudwhg1 Ixuwkhupruh/ wkhuh lv wkh lpsolflw dvvxpswlrq ri h{rjhqhlw| ri sulfhv/ surgxfwlylw| dqg xqhpsor|phqw zlwk uhvshfw wr wkh sdudphwhuv ri wkh frlqwhjudwlrq uhodwlrqvkls1 Lq wkh qh{w vhfwlrq zh dgguhvv wkhvh lvvxhv lq d mrlqw prgho ri zdjhv dqg surwdelolw|1

46

(14)

1980 1985 1990 1995 -.02

0 .02

1-step residuals in rate of return spesification

1-step residuals +2σ

−2σ

1980 1985 1990 1995

-.15 -.1 -.05 0

.05 Laggged wage-share coeffisient

γ

+2se

-2se

1980 1985 1990 1995

-.02 0 .02

1-step residuals in wage-share spesification

1-step residuals +2σ

−2σ

1980 1985 1990 1995

-.2 -.15 -.1 -.05 0

Lagged rate-of-return coeffisient

+2se

-2se γ

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7 Prghoolqj zdjhv dqg surwdelolw|

Zh xvh d 71 rughu yhfwru dxwruhjuhvvlyh prgho +YDU, lq wkh wkuhh yduldeohviS_|cERn +|cERn&|j/ l1h1 zdjh frvwv/ wkh ydoxh ri {hg fdslwdo dqg ydoxh dgghg/ doo phd0 vxuhg shu zrunlqj krxu1 Wkh udwh ri xqhpsor|phqw lv lqfoxghg lq wkh orqj0uxq sduw ri wkh v|vwhp dv d qrq0prghoohg yduldeoh/ l1h1 L_|3³²1 Wkh rwkhu qrq0prghoohg ydul0 deohv duh dovr wdnhq irup wkh prgho lq Wdeoh 4= {RS|3c{RS|32c L_|3³²c{L_|3³²/{?|/ { A| dqg (L|1⁷ Lq dgglwlrq wkhuh duh wkuhh qhz gxpplhv/ bHe^/ bHS^

dqgbb.^2wkdw zhuh lqfoxghg wr prs xs wkuhh odujh uhvlgxdov lq wkh htxdwlrq iru ERn&|1

Wdeoh 5 uhsruwv uhvlgxdo vwdqgdug huuruv dqg whvw iru plvvshflfdwlrq iru wkh

7Wkh rqo| yduldeoh lq Wdeoh 4 wkdw lv rplwwhg lv|w1

(15)

Wdeoh 5= Gldjqrvwlfv iru xquhvwulfwhg 71 rughu frqglwlrqdo YDU iru 4<9;1404<<;15/

s0ydoxhv lq eudfnhwv1

S Rn+ Rn& YDU

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Ohw q ghqrwh wkh pdwul{ wkdw frqwdlqv wkh frlqwhjudwlqj yhfwruv1 Li%| lv jlyhq e|%_| ' dS_|cERn+_|cERn&_|c L_|3³²oc frlqwhjudwlrq hqwdlov wkdw

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48

(16)

1985 1990 1995 .025

0

.025 _+2σ

−2σ wc

1-step residuals

1985 1990 1995

-.1 0

.1 _+2σ

−2σ p+y

1-step residuals

1985 1990 1995

-.05 0

.05 ^+2σ

−2σ pj+k-hw

1-step residuals

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Wr urexvwli| wkh lqihuhqfh djdlqvw wkh frqvhtxhqfhv ri lqfoxglqj wkh udwh ri xqhpsor|phqw dv d frqglwlrqlqj yduldeoh zh dovr dgg wkh olqhdu wuhqg uhvwulfwhg/

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(17)

Wdeoh 6= Frlqwhjudwlrq whvwv +ghjuhhv ri iuhhgrp fruuhfwhg, dqg Kduer hw1 do1 +4<<;, dv|pswrwlf fulwlfdo ydoxhv lq sduhqwkhvhv1 o ghqrwhv wkh udqn ri wkh frlqwhjudwlrq pdwul{q1

Hljhqydoxhv= b ' f2Sc b₂ ' f22Hc b ' ffeH Wudfh hljhqydoxh whvw

qxoo dowhuqdwlyh

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99 99 97

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714 Wkh zdjh0vkduh prgho

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4:

(18)

1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 .21

.22 .23 .24 .25 .26 .27 .28

.29 First eigenvalue Second eigenvalue

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Wkh uhvwulfwlrqv rq wkh kpdwul{ lpsolhv zhdn h{rjhqhlw| ri sulfhv dqg sur0 gxfwlylw|/ dqg khqfh vlqjoh htxdwlrq hvwlpdwlrq/ lv h!flhqw / vhh Mrkdqvhq +4<<5,

(19)

Wdeoh 8= Uhvwulfwhg frlqwhjudwlrq dqdo|vlv= Zdjh vkduh vshflfdwlrq ²ES '

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715 Wkh udwh0ri0uhwxuq prgho

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S ERn+ ERn&| L_|3³²

f qr uhvwulfwlrq

Wkh uvw +uhvwulfwhg, yhfwru lv wkh zdjh0vkduh/ zlwk d iuhho| hvwlpdwhg frh!flhqw ri wkh wudqviruphg udwh ri xqhpsor|phqw/ zkloh wkh vhfrqg yhfwru grhv qrw kdyh dq lp0 phgldwh lqwhusuhwdwlrq1 Wkhvhq0uhvwulfwlrqv duh qrw vljqlfdqw dv²E2 ' fHdfDHo1 Wkh vhfrqg vwhs lv wr uhvwulfw wkh wzr htxloleulxp fruuhfwlrq frh!flhqwv ri {S| lq olqh zlwk wkh olqhdul}dwlrq ri orj udwh0ri0uhwxuq lq vhfwlrq 5/ l1h1 k '2..k₂1 Wkh k dqgq uhvwulfwlrqv rq wkh v|vwhp duh mrlqwo| lqvljqlfdqw/ zlwk²E ' .df.Soc

4<

(20)

1985 1990 1995 -.075

-.05 -.025 0

β +2se

-2se

1985 1990 1995

6 8 10 12

Sequence of tests of overidentifying restrictions

5% significance level critical value

Iljxuh 7= Zdjh0vkduh prgho= Uhfxuvlyh vwdelolw| ri wkh hvwlpdwhg frh!flhqw riL_|3³² lq Wdeoh 8/ dqg wkh vhtxhqfh ri²Ewhvw vwdwlvwlfv iru wkh ydolglw| ri wkh uhvwulflwrqv1

(21)

Wdeoh 9= Uhvwulfwhg frlqwhjudwlrq dqdo|vlv= Udwh ri uhwxuq vshflfdwlrq ²E '

.df.So/ vwdqgdug huuru lq sduhqwkhvhv15 99

99 97

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wrjhwkhu zlwk wkh vhtxhqfh ri ²whvwv iru wkh 6 uhvwulfwlrqv hperglhg lq Wdeoh 91 Wkh hvwlpdwhg frh!flhqw lv hpslulfdoo| vwdeoh dqg wkh uhvwulfwlrqv duh qrw uhmhfwhg iru dq| vdpsoh vl}h ehwzhhq 4<;6t4 dqg 4<<;t51

Qrwh wkdw wkh zhdn h{rjhqhlw| dvvxpswlrq xqghuo|lqj wkh vlqjoh htxdwlrq hvwl0 pdwlrq lv qrw vxssruwhg zkhq zh xvh wkh udwh0ri0uhwxuq uhvwulfwlrqv wr lghqwli| wkhk dqgq pdwulfhv1 Wklv uhvxow lv glhuhqw iurp wkh zdjh0vkduh fdvh/ zkhuh zh vdz wkdw h{rjhqhlw| zdv ydolgdwhg1 Wkh uhdvrq iru wklv lv wkdw zhdn h{rjhqhlw| lv d prgho surshuw| dqg lv uhodwlyh wr wkh sdudphwhuv ri lqwhuhvw dqg qrw d gdwd surshuw|/ vhh Hulfvvrq +4<<5, dqg Hulfvvrq hw do1 +4<<;,1

Wkh uhvxow wkdw qr yduldeohv duh zhdno| h{rjhqrxv lqylwhv ixuwkhu prghoolqj ri wkh frpsohwh 60yduldeoh v|vwhp1 Dprgho ri wkh wkuhh yduldeohv lq wkh v|vwhp lv vkrzq lq Wdeoh :1 Lw lv frqvwuxfwhg iurp d 61 rughu GYDU prgho iru wkh wkuhh hqgrjhqrxv

54

(22)

1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 -.05

025 ^+2σ

−2σ β14

1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 .025

.05

.075 +2σ

−2σ β24

1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 2.5

5 7.5

χ²(3)

Test

Iljxuh 8= Uhfxuvlyh vwdelolw| ri wkh hvwlpdwhg frh!flhqw ri L_|3³² lq Wdeoh 9 dqg wkh vhtxhqfh ri ²E whvw vwdwlvwlfv iru wkh ydolglw| ri wkh uhvwulflwrqv1

yduldeohv {S|/ {ERn+| dqg{ERn&&|1 Wkh frqglwlrqlqj yduldeohv duh wkh vdph dv deryh/ vhh Wdeoh 5/ h{fhsw wkdw zh qrz lqfoxgh wkh hvwlpdwhg htxloleulxp fruuhfwlrq phfkdqlvp lq wkh iroorzlqj irup

.^5R5| ' S|3ERn+|3ffe2L_|32³²c

.^5R5| ' S|3ER n&|3n ffeL_|32³²

Wkh prgho Lq Wdeoh : kdv ehhq uhvwulfwhg wr fdswxuh erwk wkh olqhdul}hg udwh ri uhwxuq dqg g|qdplf krprjhqhlw| lq dgglwlrq wr rwkhu uhvwulfwlrqv rq wkh g|qdplf vwuxfwxuh1 Wkh mrlqw whvw ri doo wkh ryhu lghqwli|lqj uhvwulfwlrqv dqg ri wkh uhvwulfwlrqv

|lhogv²Ee2 ' eDdfeodqg²E2 ' .edfHouhvshfwlyho|1 Lq wkh zdjh htxdwlrq

(23)

lq Wdeoh :oo|3e dqgL_|3³² duh vxevxphg lq.^5R5|3 dqg.^5R5|391 Lq dgglwlrq wr wkh yduldeohv lq wkh vlqjoh htxdwlrq lq Wdeoh 4 odjjhg prghoohg yduldeohv duh lqfoxghg lq wkh zdjh htxdwlrq lq Wdeoh :/ l1h1 {ERn&_|32dqg{ERn+_|3

Wkh dgglwlrqdo yduldeohv uhgxfh wkh hvwlpdwhg uhvlgxdo vwdqgdug huuru iurp 414;( lq wkh vlqjoh htxdwlrq dqdo|vlv wr 4146( lq wkh pxowlyduldwh1 Wkh frh!flhqw hvwlpdwhv duh rwkhuzlvh doprvw xqdhfwhg e| wkh fkdqjh ri hvwlpdwlrq phwkrg iurp ROV wr FILPO1 Khqfh wkhuh lv olwwoh orvv ri lqirupdwlrq zkhq prghoolqj zdjhv lq dq rqh0 htxdwlrq vhwwlqj frpsduhg wr wkh pxowlyduldwh dqdo|vlv hyhq zkhq lpsrvlqj wkh udwh0ri0uhwxuq vshflfdwlrq1

8 Frqfoxvlrq

Zh kdyh prghoohg d gdwd vhw wkdw h{whqgv wkh gdwd xvhg e| Q|prhq +4<;<d, e|

75 txduwhuv/ iurp 4<;:t7 wr 4<<;t51 Ghvslwh wkh whq |hduv ri qhz gdwd wkh pdlq vwuxfwxuh ri wkh vkruw uxq sduw ri wkh prgho lv uh0hvwdeolvkhg rq wkh qhz gdwd1 Wkh frlqwhjudwlqj sduw ri wkh htxdwlrq lv vlpsolhg wr d zdjh0vkduh irupxodwlrq +qr zhgjh,/ lq dffrugdqfh zlwk wkh qglqjv ri Mrkdqvhq +4<<8d,/ rq dqqxdo gdwd hqglqj lq 4<<31 Ryhudoo wkhuhiruh/ wkh lqyhvwljdwlrq vkrzv wkdw dq htxdwlrq wkdw olqnv zdjh jurzwk wr FSL0lq dwlrq dqg wr wkh odjjhg ohyho ri wkh zdjh0vkduh lv hpslulfdoo| vwdeoh lq wkh 4<<3v1 G|qdplf krprjhqhlw| lv gdwd dffhswdeoh1 Wkh uroh ri wkh zdjh0vkduh lq wkh htxloleulxp fruuhfwlrq sduw ri wkh prgho frqwudglfwv wkh zlghvsuhdg ylhz wkdw

9Uhfdoo iurp vhfwlrq 6 wkdw vlqfh

5=::HtFPUrU4w.HtFPUrU5w.d3uuw6. 3=49X_w5⁵>

wkh huuru fruuhfwlrq phfkdqlvp lq wkh zdjh htxdwlrq lq Wdeoh : lv=

3=3:6HtFPUrU4w4. 3=359HtFPUrU5w43=359uuw7. 3=3368X_w6⁵ 3=359d3=

56

(24)

Wdeoh := FILPO uhvxowv iru d prgho ri wkh v|vwhp/ vwdqgdug huuru lq sduhqwkhvhv1 {S_| {ERn+_| {ERn&_|

e

jff I eI 2bfI

.^5R5|3 ff.

E nffH

EffD. nff.S

.^5R5_|3 nff2S Eff.

Efffe nfSf

Effeb nfb

{S_|3 fSf Eff.

{ERn&|3 EffS fSf

Eff.

{ERn&_|32 ffeH

E f2eD

EffDe feD2

EffHf

{ERn&|3 ff2.S

Eff.2

{ERn+|3 nffe

Effe f2.2

Eff.f

{?

E

{2RS|3 nf. E

EffD nf.D

Ef.S

{ A| nfDS2

Efef

{L_|3³² nfffD

Effff nff

Efffe

(L ffee

EfffS

Qrw lqfoxghg lq wkh wdeoh= d, Lqwhufhsw lq doo wkuhh htxdwlrqv1 e, Vhdvrqdov lq froxpqv 6 dqg 71

f, l4<;9t5 dqg l4<;7t4 lq froxpq 7/ l4<<:t5 lq froxpqv 6 dqg 71 GYDUplvvshvlfdwlrq whvwv=

I_@oc3DEeDc2H 31<8^318:`

^2c_{?_}ES 718:^3193`

I_e|E2efceff 31<;^3188`

(25)

fhqwudol}hg zdjh edujdlqlqj lpso| zhdn hhfwv ri clqvlgh idfwruv*1

Wkurxjkrxw zh kdyh dgrswhg Mrkdqvhq*v vtxduhg lqyhuvh wudqvirup ri wkh udwh ri xqhpsor|phqw1 Zh vxvshfw krzhyhu wkdw wkh h{dfw irup ri wkh fxuydwxuh ri wkh zdjh fxuyh lv qrw d vwuxfwxudo ihdwxuh lq wkh vdph vhqvh dv wkh FSL0lq dwlrq dqg odjjhg zdjh0vkduh hhfwv1 Iru h{dpsoh/ wkhuh lv hylghqfh iurp prghov ri dqqxdo gdwd wkdw wkh orjdulwkplf wudqvirup lv dovr frqvlvwhqw zlwk vwdelolw|/ vhh Uûgvhwk dqg Q|prhq +4<<<,1 Wkdw ehlqj vdlg/ lw lv lqwhuhvwlqj wkdw d zdjh prgho zlwk wkh kljko| frqyh{ xqhpsor|phqw hhfw vxuylyhv lq vhfrqg kdoi ri wkh 4<<3v/ vlqfh wkh lpsolhg zdjh fxuyh lv dw lq wkdw shulrg1 Khqfh wkh frqvlghudeoh prghudwlrq ri qrplqdo zdjh fodlpv lq wkhvh |hduv/ dv qrwhg e| h1j1 RHFG +4<<:, lv h{sodlqhg e| orzhu surwdelolw|/ e| wkh fhqwudol}hg vhwwohphqwv lq wkh 4<;; dqg 4<;< dqg e|

wkh uhodwlyh vwdelolw| ri wkh qrplqdo h{fkdqjh udwh1 Wkhuh lv olwwoh vhsdudwh zdjh uhgxfwlrq hhfwv irup wkh ohyho ri xqhpsor|phqw wkdw zdv uhdfkhg lq wkh plg 4<<3v1 D pdlq remhfwlyh ri wkh sdshu kdv ehhq wr lqyhvwljdwh zkhwkhu wkh odjjhg zdjh0 vkduh lv d jrrg uhsuhvhqwdwlrq ri wkh olqn ehwzhhq surwdelolw| dqg zdjhv1 Iru wkdw sxusrvh zh irupxodwhg d voljkwo| pruh jhqhudo prgho wkdw xvhg wkh udwh ri uhwxuq rq fdslwdo dv dq h{solflw phdvxuh ri surwdelolw|1 Wkdw ohg wr wkh glvfryhu| wkdw odjjhg zdjhv uhodwlyh wr wkh fdslwdo0oderxu udwlr + ESER n& |3, frxog eh d plvvlqj yduldeoh lq wkh h{lvwlqj zdjh0vkduh prghov1 Krzhyhu/ dowkrxjk phdvxuhv ri w idyruv wkh udwh0ri0uhwxuq vshflfdwlrq/ wkh vwdwlvwlfdo glvfulplqdwlrq ehwzhhq wkh frqwhqglqj uhsuhvhqwdwlrqv ri surwdelolw| hhfwv zdv qrw yhu| vwurqj1 Dqrwkhu dvshfw/ eurxjkw rxw e| wkh frlqwhjudwlrq dqdo|vlv/ lv wkdw wkh plvvlqj yduldeoh lv vwdwlrqdu|/ zklfk khosv h{sodlq wkh hpslulfdo vxffhvv ri zdjh0vkduh prghov1

Ilqdoo|/ wkh v|vwhp dqdo|vlv vkrzhg wkdw wkh udwh0ri0uhwxuq vshflfdwlrq lp0

58

(26)

DGdwd

' orj ri dyhudjh krxuo| zdjh lq pdqxidfwxulqj/ qrplqdo nurqhu1 Vrxufh= QKR

^Frqihghudwlrq ri Qruzhjldq Exvlqhvv dqg Lqgxvwu|`1

A 'reoljdwhg vrfldo frvwv/ vkduh lq krxuo| zdjh1 Vrxufh= Qrujhv Edqn ^Fhqwudo Edqn ri Qruzd|`1

S'n *?E n A/ orj ri zdjh frvwv shu krxu lq pdqxidfwxulqj1

L- 'qxpehu ri shuvrqv r!fldoo| uhjlvwhuhg zlwkrxw ruglqdu| zrun1 Vrxufh= Du0 ehlgvgluhnwrudwhw ^Glufhwrudwh ri Oderxu`1

` ' qxpehu ri shuvrqv hpsor|hg1 Vrxufh= Vwdwlvwlfv Qruzd| +Oderu Irufh Vdpsoh Vxuyh|v,1

L ' ^L-Wff_` / orj ri uhjlvwhuhg xqhpsor|hg lq shu fhqw ri wrwdo hpsor|phqw1 RS' orj ri frqvxphu sulfh lqgh{1 Vrxufh= Vwdwlvwlfv Qruzd|1

R ' orj JGS gh dwru iru pdqxidfwxulqj1 Vrxufh= Txduwhuo| Qdwlrqdo Dffrxqw/

Vwdwlvwlfv Qruzd|1

+'orj ri dyhudjh oderu surgxfwlylw| lq pdqxidfwxulqj1 Vrxufh= Txduwhuo| Qdwlrqdo Dffrxqw/ Vwdwlvwlfv Qruzd|1

(27)

& ' orj ri {hg fdslwdo lq pdqxidfwxulqj dqg frqvwuxfwlrq1 Vrxufh= Txduwhuo|

Qdwlrqdo Dffrxqw/ Vwdwlvwlfv Qruzd|1

' orj ri pdq0krxu lq pdqxidfwxulqj dqg frqvwuxfwlrq1 Vrxufh= Txduwhuo|

Qdwlrqdo Dffrxqw/ Vwdwlvwlfv Qruzd|1

R 'orj ri jurvv lqyhvwphqwv gh dwru lq pdqxidfwxulqj dqg frqvwuxfwlrq1 Vrxufh=

Txduwhuo| Qdwlrqdo Dffrxqw/ Vwdwlvwlfv Qruzd|1

?' orj ri qrupdo zhhno| zrunlqj krxuv1 Vrxufh= Qrujhv Edqn ^Fhqwudo Edqn ri Qruzd|`1

(L ' fDiru wkh shulrg 4<;3154<;415/lq 4<;316/ lq 4<;417/fDlq 4<;;16/

fD lq 4<;<15/ dqg lq 4<<316/ rwkhuzlvhf1

bHe^ ' lq 4<;714/ rwkhuzlvhf1

bHS^2 ' lq 4<;915/ rwkhuzlvhf1

bb.^2 ' lq 4<<:15/ rwkhuzlvhf1

Wkh gdwd iurp wkh Txduwhuo| Qdwlrqdo Dffrxqw kdyh d euhdn lq 4<<714 gxh wr d uhylvlrq ri wkh qdwlrqdo dffrxqw1 Wkh qhz vhulhv duh ohyho dgmxvwhg1

5:

(28)

Uhihuhqfhv

Dxnuxvw/ R1 +4<::,1 Lq dwlrq lq wkh Rshq Hfrqrp|1 D Qruzhjldq Prgho1 Lq Nohlq/

O1 E1 dqg Z1 V1 Våodqw +hgv1,/Zruog Zlgh Lq dwlrq1 Wkhru| dqg Uhfhqw H{shul0 hqfh1 Eurrnlqjv/ Zdvklqjwrq G1F1

Edqhumhh/ D1/ M1 M1 Grodgr/ M1 Z1 Jdoeudlwk dqg G1 I1 Khqgu| +4<<6,1Fr0lqwhjudwlrq/

Huuru Fruuhfwlrq dqg wkh Hfrqrphwulf Dqdo|vlv ri Qrq0vwdwlrqdu| Gdwd1 R{irug Xqlyhuvlw| Suhvv/ R{irug1

Eodqfkdug/ R1 M1 dqg O1 K1 Vxpphuv +4<;9,1 Kxvwhuhvlv dqg wkh Hxurshdq Xqhp0 sor|phqw Sureohp1 QEHUPdfurhfrqrplfv Pdqxdo/4/ 48:;1

Fdopiruv/ O1 dqg U1 Q|prhq +4<<3,1 Qruglf Hpsor|phqw1 Hfrqrplf Srolf|/8+44,/

6<:77;1

Fduuxwk/ D1 D1 dqg D1 M1 Rvzdog +4<;<,1 Sd| Ghwhuplqdwlrq dqg Lqgxvwuldo Surv0 shulw|1 R{irug Xqlyhuvlw| Suhvv/ R{irug1

Gûoyln/ M1 H1/ P1 Euèwhq/ I1 Orqjyd dqg D1 K1 Vwhhq +4<<:,1 Qruzhjldq Oderxu Pdunhw Lqvwlwxwlrqv dqg Uhjxodwlrqv1 Lq Gûoyln/ M1 H1 dqg D1 K1 Vwhhq +hgv1,/

Pdnlqj Vrolgdulw| ZrunB Wkh Qruzhjldq Oderxu Pdunhw Prgho lq Wudqvlwlrq/

fkds1 61 Vfdqglqdyldq Xqlyhuvlw| Suhvv/ Rvor1

Grruqln/ M1 D1 dqg G1 I1 Khqgu| +4<<9,1 Prghoolqj G|qdplf V|vwhpv Xvlqj SfIlpo

<13 iru Zlqgrzv1 Lqwhuqdwlrqdo Wkrpvrq Sxeolvklqj/ Orqgrq1

Grruqln/ M1 D1 dqg G1 I1 Khqgu| +4<<<,1 Hpslulfdo Hfrqrphwulf Prghoolqj Xvlqj SfJlyh1 Yroxph 41 Wlpehuodnh Frqvxowdqwv/ Zhvw Zlfnkdp1

(29)

Hulfvvrq/ Q1 U1 +4<<5,1 Frlqwhjudwlrq/ H{rjhqhlw| dqg Srolf| dqdo|vlv= Dq Ryhuylhz1 Mrxuqdo ri Srolf| Prghoolqj/ 47/ 5845;31

Hulfvvrq/ Q1 U1/ G1 I1 Khqgu| dqg J1 H1 Pl}rq +4<<;,1 H{rjhqhlw|/ Frlqwhjudwlrq dqg Hfrqrplf Srolf| Dqdo|vlv1 Mrxuqdo ri Exvlqhvv ) Hfrqrplf Vwdwlvwlfv/ 49/ 6:36;:1

Kdkq/ I1 U1 V1 +4<<:,1 D Fulwlfdo Hvvd| rq Prghuq Pdfurhfrqrplf Wkhru|1 PLW Suhvv/ Fdpeulgjh1

Kduer/ L1/ V1 Mrkdqvhq/ E1 Qlhovhq dqg D1 Udkehn +4<<;,1 Dv|pswrwlf Lqihuhqfh rq Frlqwhjudwlqj Udqn lq Sduwldo V|vwhp1Mrxuqdo ri Exvlqhvv ) Hfrqrplf Vwdwlvwlfv/ 49/ 6;;6<<1

Mrkdqvhq/ N1 +4<<8d,1 Qruzhjldq Zdjh Fxuyhv1 R{irug Exoohwlq ri Hfrqrplfv dqg Vwdwlvwlfv/ 8:/ 55<57:1

Mrkdqvhq/ N1 +4<<:,1 Wkh zdjh Fxuyh1 Frqyh{lw|/ Nlqnv dqg Frpsrvlwlrq Hhfwv1 Dssolhg Hfrqrplfv/ 5</ :4:;1

Mrkdqvhq/ V1 +4<;;,1 Vwdwlvwlfdo Dqdo|vlv ri Frlqwhjudwlrq Yhfwruv1 Mrxuqdo ri Hfr0 qrplf G|qdplfv dqg Frqwuro/ 45/ 5645871

Mrkdqvhq/ V1 +4<<5,1 Frlqwhjudwlrq lq Sduwldo V|vwhpv dqg wkh H!flhqf| ri Vlqjoh0 Htxdwlrq Dqdo|vlv1 Mrxuqdo ri Hfrqrphwulfv/ 85/ 6;<7351

Mrkdqvhq/ V1 +4<<8e,1 Olnholkrrg0Edvhg Lqihuhqfh lq Frlqwhjudwhg Yhfwru Dxwruhjuhv0 vlyh Prghov1 R{irug Xqlyhuvlw| Suhvv/ R{irug1

5<

(30)

Mrkdqvhq/ V1 dqg N1 Mxvholxv +4<<3,1 Pd{lpxp Olnholkrrg Hvwlpdwlrq dqg Lqihuhqfh rq FrlqwhjudwlrqZlwk Dssolfdwlrqv wr wkh Ghpdqg iru Prqh|1 R{irug Exoohwlq ri Hfrqrplfv dqg Vwdwlvwlfv/ 85/ 49<5431

Nrovuxg/ G1 dqg U1 Q|prhq +4<<;,1 Xqhpsor|phqw dqg wkh Rshq Hfrqrp| Zdjh0 Sulfh Vsludo1 Mrxuqdo ri Hfrqrplf Vwxglhv/ 58/ 78379:1

Od|dug/ U1/ V1 Qlfnhoo dqg U1 Mdfnpdq +4<<4,1 Xqhpsor|phqw1 R{irug Xqlyhuvlw|

Suhvv/ R{irug1

O wnhsrko/ K1 +4<<4,1 Lqwurgxfwlrq wr Pxowlsoh Wlph Vhulhv1 Vsulqjhu Yhuodj/ Khl0 ghoehuj1

Prhqh/ N1 R1 +4<;;,1 Xqlrqv* Wkuhdwv dqg Zdjh Ghwhuplqdwlrq1 Wkh Hfrqrplf Mrxuqdo/<;/ 7:47;61

Q|prhq/ U1 +4<;<d,1 Prghoolqj Zdjhv lq wkh Vpdoo Rshq Hfrqrp|= Dq Huuru0 Fruuhfwlrq Prgho ri Qruzhjldq Pdqxidfwxulqj Zdjhv1 R{irug Exoohwlq ri Hfr0 qrplfv dqg Vwdwlvwlfv/84/ 56<58;1

Q|prhq/ U1 +4<;<e,1 Zdjhv dqg wkh Ohqjwk ri wkh Zrunlqj Gd|1 Dq Hpslulfdo Whvw Edvhg rq Qruzhjldq Txduwhuo| Pdqxidfwxulqj Gdwd1 Vfdqglqdyldq Mrxuqdo ri Hfrqrplfv/ <4/ 8<<9451

RHFG +4<<:,1 Hpsor|phqw Rxworrn1 Qr1 Mxo| 4<<:1 RHFG1

Uûgvhwk/ D1 +4<<<,1 Rshq Hfrqrp| Pdfurhfrqrplfv1 Errn pdqxvfulsw/ Hfrqrplfv Ghsduwphqw/ Xqlyhuvlw| ri Rvor1

(31)

Uûgvhwk/ D1 dqg U1 Q|prhq +4<<<,1 Qruglf Zdjh Irupdwlrq dqg Xqhpsor|phqw Vhyhq \hduv Odwhu1 Phprudqgxp 43/ Ghsduwphqw ri Hfrqrplfv/ Xqlyhuvlw| ri Rvor1

Urzodww/ S1 D1 +4<;:,1 D prgho ri zdjh edujdlqlqj1 R{irug Exoohwlq ri Hfrqrplfv dqg Vwdwlvwlfv/ 7</ 67:6:51

Vrorz/ U1 P1 +4<<3,1 Wkh Oderxu Pdunhw dv d Vrfldo Lqvwlwxwlrq1 Edvlo Eodfnzhoo/

R{irug1

64