MPR 1/15
DEPUTY GOVERNOR JON NICOLAISEN
THE EXCECUTIVE BOARD, 18 MARCH 2015
GDP
2
Seasonally adjusted volume index. 2008 Q1=100. 2008 Q1 – 2014 Q4
90 92 94 96 98 100 102 104 106 108 110
90 92 94 96 98 100 102 104 106 108 110
2008 2010 2012 2014
US UK Sweden Euro area
Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank
Consumer prices
3
Twelve-month change. Percent. January 2010 – February 2015
1)-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
US Euro area Sweden UK
1) To end-January 2015 for US and UK
Source: Eurostat and Bureau of Labor Statistics
Yields on 10-year government bonds
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Germany Italy Spain UK US
MPR 4/14
Percent. 1 January 2010 – 16 March 2015
Source: Bloomberg 4
Yields on 5-year bonds in five years
5
Based on swap rates. Percent
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
2005 2008 2011 2014
US Germany
Source: Bloomberg
Yields on 2-year government bonds
6
Percent. 1 August 2014 – 16 March 2015
-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5
-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5
Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15
Finland Germany Netherlands France
Sweden Denmark
Switzerland
Source: Bloomberg
Money market rates for trading partners
0 0.5 1 1.5 2
0 0.5 1 1.5 2
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
MPR 1/14 MPR 2/14 MPR 3/14 MPR 4/14 MPR 1/15
3-month rates. Percent 2010 Q1 – 2018 Q4
Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank 7
Oil price and import-weighted exchange rate index (I-44)
1)8
1 January 2010 – 16 March 2015
40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 80
85 90 95 100 105 110
2012 2013 2014 2015
I-44, left axis
Oil price, right axis
1) A positive slope denotes a stronger krone exchange rate Sources: Norges Bank and Thomson Reuters
Petroleum investment
9
Volume. Annual change. Percent. 2008 - 2018
1)-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20
-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
MPR 4/14 MPR 1/15
1) Projections for 2015 - 2018
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Regional network
10
Growth in output past three months and expected growth next six months. Annualised. Percent. January 2011 – July 2015
0 1 2 3 4
0 1 2 3 4
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Next six months Past three months
Regional network October 2014
Source: Norges Bank
Private consumption and TNS Gallup’s Consumer Confidence Index
-6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10
-20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Consumer Confidence Index (left-hand scale) Private consumption (right-hand scale)
11
Seasonally adjusted net numbers and percent. Annualised
Sources: TNS Gallup and Statistics Norway
Capacity constraints and labour availability
1)as reported by
Norges Bank’s regional network
12
Seasonally adjusted. Percent
1) Share of contacts that will have some or considerable problems accommodating an increase in demand and the share of contacts where production is constrained by labour supply.
Sources: Statistics Norway, NAV and Norges Bank
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 1 2 3 4 5
2008 2010 2012 2014
LFS NAV
NAV including
employment schemes
Unemployment rate. LFS and NAV
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
2008 2010 2012 2014
Capacity constraints Labour availability
Net migration
13
By origin and non-resident employees on short-term contracts.
In thousands of persons. 1994 - 2013
-10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
-10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012
Change short-term contracts Net migration EU/EEA countries Net migration non-EU/EEA countries
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Net migration
14
By citizenship. In thousands of persons. 2003-2014
1)0 5 10 15 20 25
0 5 10 15 20 25
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Sweden
Lithuania Poland Germany Sum²⁾
1) Provisional figures for 2014
2) Sum of Sweden, Lithuania, Poland and Germany Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Regional network: Annual wage growth
15
Aggregated. Percent
Sources: TBU and Norges Bank
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
RN January RN September TBU
Labour costs 1) relative to trading partners 2)
16
Index. 1995=100. 1995-2015
95 100 105 110 115 120 125 130 135 140
95 100 105 110 115 120 125 130 135
140 Domestic currency Common currency
1) Hourly labour costs in manufacturing 2) Projections for 2015 (broken lines)
Sources: TBU, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
CPI-ATE. Total and by supplier sector
17
Twelve-month change. Percent. January 2010 – June 2015
-2.5 0 2.5 5
-2.5 0 2.5 5
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Domestically produced goods and services Imported consumer goods
CPI-ATE
MPR 1/15 MPR 4/14
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Projections Monetary Policy Report 1/15
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank 18
80 85 90 95 100 105
80 85 90 95 100 105
2010 2013 2016
Exchange rate (I-44)
0 1 2 3
0 1 2 3
2010 2013 2016
Key policy rate
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
2010 2013 2016
Output gap
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 1 2 3 4 5
2010 2013 2016
CPI-ATE
MPR 1/15 MPR 4/14
Factors behind changes in the interest rate forecast since MPR 4/14
19
Cumulative contribution. Percentage points. 2015 Q3 – 2017 Q4
-2 -1 0 1 2
-2 -1 0 1 2
2015 Q3 2016 Q1 2016 Q3 2017 Q1 2017 Q3
Exchange rate
Foreign interest rates Demand
Costs
Change in interest rate forecast
Source: Norges Bank
