THE EXECUTIVE BOARD
26 OCTOBER 2016
GDP growth for trading partners
2
Export-weighted. Quarterly change. Percent. 2010 Q1 – 2019 Q4
1)-1 0 1 2
-1 0 1 2
2010 2013 2016 2019
Trading partners Advanced economies Emerging economies Projections MPR 3/16
1) Projections for 2016 Q3 – 2019 Q4 from MPR 3/16.
Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank
3
Trading partners. Percent. 2010 Q1 – 2019 Q4
1)0 0.5 1 1.5 2
0 0.5 1 1.5 2
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Expected 24 October 2016 Expected MPR 3/16
1) Broken lines show forward rates at 24 October 2016 and 16 September 2016 (MPR 3/16), respectively.
Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank
Actual and forward money market rates
Yields on 10-year government bonds
4
Percent. 1 January 2014 – 24 October 2016
-1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5
-1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5
Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16
US Germany UK
MPR 3/16
Source: Bloomberg
Oil price
5
USD per barrel. January 2010 – December 2019
1)0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Futures prices October 2016 Futures prices MPR 3/16
1) Futures prices (broken lines) November/December 2016 – December 2019.
Sources: Statistics Norway, Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank
Exchange rate (I-44)
6
Import-weighted exchange rate index. 1 January 2015 – 24 October 2016
Source: Norges Bank
95
100
105
110 95
100
105
110
Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16
I-44
Projections MPR 3/16 Average Q4
MPR 3/16
Three-month Nibor spread
7
Percentage points. 1 January 2015 – 24 October 2016
1)0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17
Three-month Nibor spread Projections MPR 3/16
1) Projections for 2016 Q3 – 2019 Q4 (broken line) from MPR 3/16.
Source: Norges Bank
MPR 3/16
GDP for mainland Norway and regional network’s indicator of output growth
8
Quarterly change. Percent. 2014 Q1– 2016 Q4
1)1) Projections for 2016 Q3 − 2016 Q4 (broken lines).
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
-0.2 -0.1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7
-0.2 -0.1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7
Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 Mar-16 Sep-16
GDP, mainland Norway Regional network
SAM October 2016
Output growth in regional network
9
Reported and expected growth. August survey. Annualised. Percent
-7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4
-7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4
Domestic.
oriented mfg.
Export oriented mfg.
Oil serv.
domest. market
Oil serv. export market
Construction Retail trade Commerc.
services
Househ.
services
Output growth past three months Expected output growth next sixth months
Source: Norges Bank
Unemployment as a percentage of the labour force
10
LFS
1)and NAV
2). Seasonally adjusted. January 2010 – December 2016
3)1) Labour Force Survey.
2) Norwegian Labour and Welfare Administration.
3) NAV projections for October – December 2016 (broken lines).
Sources: NAV, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
1 2 3 4 5
1 2 3 4 5
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
NAV LFS
NAV including employment schemes Projections MPR 3/16
Employment rate for core group
11
Employed persons aged 25 – 54, measured by the LFS, as a percentage of the total for this age group in the population. 1995 Q1 – 2016 Q3
1)1) Monthly observation for July used for 2016 Q3.
Source: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88
79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88
1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015
Average 1995 Q1 - 2016 Q2
Fiscal impulse
12
Change in the structural non-oil deficit.
Percentage of trend GDP for mainland Norway. 2002 – 2017
1)1) Projections for 2016 and 2017.
Source: Ministry of Finance
-1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2
-1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
PPR 3/16
Gjennomsnitt 2002-2016 MPR 3/16
Average 2002 - 2016
Household consumption of goods
13
Seasonally adjusted volume index. January 2014 – August 2016
Source: Statistics Norway
120 125 130 135
120 125 130 135
Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16
Hotel overnight stays
700 800 900 1000
700 800 900 1000
2014 2015 2016
Holiday, leisure
Business, course, conference
14
Average for past 12 months. In thousands. January 2014 – August 2016
By country of residency By purpose
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
300 400 500 600
1100 1200 1300 1400
2014 2015 2016
Norway, l. h. s.
Abroad, r. h. s.
Building permits
15
Floor space for dwellings. In 1000 m
2. Seasonally adjusted.
January 2005 – September 2016
Source: Statistics Norway
150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500
150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Issued permits Trend
House prices
16
Percent. January 2010 – September 2016
-5 0 5 10 15
-1 0 1 2 3
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Seasonally adjusted monthly change, right-hand scale Twelve-month change, left-hand scale
Sources: Real Estate Norway, Finn.no and Eiendomsverdi
House prices in the largest cities
17
Twelve-month change. Percent. January 2011 – September 2016
-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25
-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Oslo Bergen Trondheim Stavanger Tromsø Kristiansand
Sources: Real Estate Norway, Finn.no and Eiendomsverdi
Credit to households
18
Twelve-month change. Percent. January 2014 – August 2016
Source: Statistics Norway
0 2 4 6 8 10
0 2 4 6 8 10
Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16
Credit demand from households 1) and non- financial enterprises 2)
19
Change in demand from previous quarter
3). 2007 Q4 – 2016 Q3
-2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5
-2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Households
Non-financial companies Next three months
1) Mortgage loans 2) Total loans to non-financial enterprises
3) 2= Up a lot, 1 = Up a little, 0 = Approximately unchanged, -1 = Down a little, -2 = Down a lot.
Source: Norges Bank
CPI-ATE. Total and by supplier sector
20
Twelve-month change. Percent. January 2014 – December 2016
1)0 1 2 3 4 5
0 1 2 3 4 5
Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16
CPI-ATE
Imported consumer goods
Domestically produced good and services Projections MPR 3/16
1) Projections for October – December 2016 from MPR 3/16.
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
THE EXECUTIVE BOARD
26 OCTOBER 2016
