at the University of Bergen
Thesis for the degree of philosophiae doctor (PhD)
*URZWKYHORFLW\RI\RXQJFKLOGUHQ LQWZRORZUHVRXUFHVHWWLQJV
3DWWHUQVDQGDELOLWLHVWRSUHGLFWQHJDWLYHKHDOWKRXWFRPHV
&DWKHULQH6FKZLQJHU
'DWHRIGHIHQFH
&RS\ULJKW&DWKHULQH6FKZLQJHU
7KHPDWHULDOLQWKLVSXEOLFDWLRQLVSURWHFWHGE\FRS\ULJKWODZ
<HDU
7LWOH *URZWKYHORFLW\RI\RXQJFKLOGUHQLQWZRORZUHVRXUFHVHWWLQJV 3DWWHUQVDQGDELOLWLHVWRSUHGLFWQHJDWLYHKHDOWKRXWFRPHV
$XWKRU &DWKHULQH6FKZLQJHU 3ULQW
AiT Bjerch AS / University of Bergen
6FLHQWLILFHQYLURQPHQW
&HQWUHIRU,QWHUQDWLRQDO+HDOWK
'HSDUWPHQWRI*OREDO3XEOLF+HDOWKDQG3ULPDU\&DUH )DFXOW\RI0HGLFLQH
8QLYHUVLW\RI%HUJHQ
%HUJHQ1RUZD\
'HSDUWPHQWRI*HRJUDSK\
)DFXOW\RI6RFLDO6FLHQFHV 8QLYHUVLW\RI%HUJHQ
%HUJHQ1RUZD\
$FNQRZOHGJHPHQWV
7KHUH LV D KXJH DSSDUDWXV RI SHRSOH EHKLQG WKLV WKHVLV DOO RI ZKRP FRQWULEXWHG LQ WKHLUVSHFLILFZD\
)LUVW DQG IRUHPRVW ,¶G OLNH WR H[SUHVV P\ DSSUHFLDWLRQ WR P\ VXSHUYLVRU\ WHDP IRU WKHLUJUHDWVFLHQWLILFQXUWXULQJDQGJXLGDQFH,DPWKDQNIXOIRUWKHVXSHUYLVLRQE\-DQ 9DQGHQ%URHFNZKRLQWURGXFHGPHWRWKHZRUOGRILQWHUQDWLRQDOKHDOWKDQGIRUPHG WKH EDVLV IRU P\ DX[RORJLFDO DQG HSLGHPLRORJLFDO XQGHUVWDQGLQJ , YDOXHG KLV SHUVLVWHQWSRVLWLYHDWWLWXGHDQGKLVIRQGQHVVIRUGHWDLOV0\WKDQNVJRWR7RU6WUDQG ZKR VWHSSHG LQ DV P\ PDLQ VXSHUYLVRU DIWHU -DQ YDQ GHQ %URHFN KDG SDVVHG DZD\
H[SDQGLQJP\XQGHUVWDQGLQJLQPDQ\ZD\V,DSSUHFLDWH\RXUFRPPLWPHQWDQG\RXU DELOLW\ WR NHHS VHYHUDO EDOOV LQ WKH DLU VHHPLQJO\ ZLWK HDVH DQG DOZD\V D SLQFK RI KXPRU/DUV7KRUH)DGQHV,WKDQN\RXIRUVKDULQJ\RXUWUHPHQGRXVPHWKRGRORJLFDO H[SHUWLVHZLWKPHDQGWKDW\RXDOZD\VKDGWLPHIRUGLVFXVVLRQVHYHQLQWKHEXVLHVW PRPHQWV 3HWHU $QGHUVHQ WKDQN \RX IRU EURDGHQLQJ P\ SHUVSHFWLYH DQG IRU VXSSRUWLQJPHDOOWKHZD\WKURXJKP\3K'
7KH&HQWUHRI,QWHUQDWLRQDO+HDOWKLVDJUHDWDQGLQVSLULQJZRUNLQJSODFHDQGHYHU\
RQHFRQWULEXWHVWRWKDW7KHUHDUHVRPDQ\SHUVRQVWKDWFURVVHGP\ZD\WHDFKLQJPH DVNLQJTXHVWLRQVZKHQ,ZDVWHDFKLQJVKDULQJWKRXJKWVDQGFRQVWUXFWLYHFULWLFLVPRU MXVWGLVFXVVLQJOLIHDQGHQULFKLQJP\SHUFHSWLRQV,FDQQRWWKDQN\RXDOOLQGLYLGXDOO\
EXW,DPWKDQNIXOIRUHYHU\RQHRI\RX7KHUHDUHKRZHYHUVRPHSHUVRQV,ZRXOGOLNH WR PHQWLRQ VSHFLILFDOO\ %HQWH 0RHQ WKH H[FHOOHQW OHDGHU RI WKH &HQWUH IRU ,QWHUQDWLRQDO+HDOWKWKDQN\RXIRUEHLQJVXFKDQHQFRXUDJLQJDQGFDULQJSHUVRQ0\
WKDQNV DOVR JR WR 5XQH 1LHOVHQ WKH IRUPHU OHDGHU RI &,+ , ZRXOG OLNH WR WKDQN ,QJXQQ (QJHEUHWVHQ IRU \RXU VXSSRUW ERWK PRUDOO\ DQG SURIHVVLRQDOO\ %HVLGHV VKDULQJ \RXU FULWLFDO WKRXJKWV \RX ZRXOG QHYHU IRUJHW WR DVN DERXW P\ ZHOOEHLQJ 7KDQNV WR 7KRUNLOG 7\OOHVNlU , DSSUHFLDWH WKDW , FRXOG DOZD\V DVN \RX IRU DGYLFH HVSHFLDOO\ DIWHU -DQ¶V GHDWK 7KDQN \RX &HFLOLH 6YDQHV IRU FRRUGLQDWLQJ WKH HSLGHPLRORJ\ FRXUVH WRJHWKHU ZLWK PH , OHDUQHG D ORW IURP \RXU ORQJVWDQGLQJ H[SHULHQFH , DP JUDWHIXO WR KDYH PHW ODWH SURIHVVRU 0HHUD &KKDJDQ ZKR GHHSO\
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
$QGWKHQRIFRXUVHWKHUHDUHWKH³EDVLFFDXVHV´RIP\WKHVLVWKDWNHSWPHUXQQLQJDQG ILOOHGPHXSZLWKHQHUJ\0\IULHQGVLQ%HUJHQDQGDOORYHUWKHZRUOGWKDQN\RXIRU EHLQJWKHUHIRUPH,DPGHHSO\JUDWHIXOIRUP\ZRQGHUIXOIDPLO\'HDUSDUHQWVWKDQN
\RXVRPXFKWKDW,FDQDOZD\VUHO\RQ\RXDQGIRUJXLGLQJPHDERXWWKHWKLQJVWKDW PDWWHULQ³GDLO\OLIH´&KULVWLDQWKDQN\RXIRUEHLQJZKR\RXDUHDQGIRUHQULFKLQJ P\OLIH-|UJ,FDQQRWWKDQN\RXHQRXJKIRU\RXUPRUDOVXSSRUW\RXUHQFRXUDJHPHQW DQG \RXU WUXVW LQ PH DQG IRU WKH PRVW ZRQGHUIXO JLIWV RI DOO WKDW OLJKW XS P\ GD\
-DQQHDQG0DUWKH
$EVWUDFW
,QWURGXFWLRQ
0HDVXULQJ FKLOG JURZWK UHSHDWHGO\ RYHU WLPH KDV WKHRUHWLFDO DGYDQWDJHV RYHU PHDVXULQJJURZWKDWDVLQJOHWLPHSRLQWVXFKDVWKHHDUO\GHWHFWLRQRIGHYLDWLRQVLQ JURZWK$WLPHO\LGHQWLILFDWLRQRIFKLOGUHQDWULVNFRXOGJXLGHHIIHFWLYHSUHYHQWLYHRU WKHUDSHXWLF DFWLRQ $OWKRXJK WKH :+2 JURZWK YHORFLW\ VWDQGDUGV RIIHUV WKH RSSRUWXQLW\ WR VFRUH ZHLJKW DQG OHQJWK YHORFLW\ DFFRUGLQJ WR WKH UDWH DW ZKLFK FKLOGUHQRXJKWWRJURZLWLVUDUHO\XVHG7KLVWKHVLVDLPVWRGHVFULEHJURZWKYHORFLW\
LQFKLOGUHQXQGHUWKHDJHRIWZR\HDUVLQWZRORZUHVRXUFHVHWWLQJVXVLQJWKH:+2
&KLOG *URZWK 6WDQGDUGV DQG WR H[DPLQH WKH DELOLW\ RI JURZWK YHORFLW\ =VFRUHV WR SUHGLFWVKRUWWHUPPRUWDOLW\DQGIXWXUHQXWULWLRQDOVWDWXV
0HWKRGV
:H XVHG GDWD IURP FKLOGUHQ XQGHU WKH DJH RI ILYH \HDUV HQUROOHG LQ WZR ODUJH FRPPXQLW\EDVHGFRKRUWVWXGLHVLQWKH'HPRFUDWLF5HSXEOLFRIWKH&RQJR'5&DQG 1HSDO%RWKVHWWLQJVUHSUHVHQWDUHDVZLWKDKLJKSUHYDOHQFHRIPDOQXWULWLRQ7KHVWXG\
LQ WKH '5& ZDV FRQGXFWHG LQ %ZDPDQGD D UXUDO DUHD ZLWK WKH PDLQ OLYHOLKRRG RI VXEVLVWHQFH IDUPLQJ ,Q WRWDO FKLOGUHQ ZHUH HQUROOHG RYHU WKH VWXG\ SHULRG :HLJKWOHQJWKKHLJKWDQGPLGXSSHUDUPFLUFXPIHUHQFH08$&ZHUHPHDVXUHGXS WRVL[WLPHVRQDYHUDJHHYHU\WKUHHPRQWKV7KHVWXG\LQ1HSDOZDVFRQGXFWHGLQWKH PXQLFLSDOLW\RI%KDNWDSXUDSHULXUEDQDUHDZKHUHIRRGLWHPVDUHDYDLODEOHDOO\HDU URXQGEXWIRRGSULFHVYDU\DFFRUGLQJWRWKHVHDVRQ$OOFKLOGUHQZHUHHQUROOHG ZLWKLQGD\VDIWHUELUWKDQGZHLJKWDQGOHQJWKZHUHPHDVXUHGHYHU\PRQWKXSWR WZR\HDUVRIDJH
$OO DQWKURSRPHWULFDO PHDVXUHV ZHUH VFRUHG DFFRUGLQJ WR WKH :+2 &KLOG *URZWK 6WDQGDUGV DQG FKLOGUHQ GHILQHG DV EHLQJ PDOQRXULVKHG LI WKH =VFRUH ZDV
$WWDLQHGJURZWKLQGLFHVFRQVLGHUHGLQWKLVWKHVLVZHUHOHQJWKIRUDJH/$=ZHLJKW
IRUOHQJWK :/= ZHLJKWIRUDJH :$= DQG 08$&IRUDJH DQG ORQJLWXGLQDO LQGLFHVZHUHZHLJKWYHORFLW\DQGOHQJWKYHORFLW\&KDQJHVLQ08$&ZHUHFDOFXODWHG DVWKHGLIIHUHQFHLQFPRU=VFRUHDQGVWDQGDUGL]HGWRDQH[DFWPRQWKSHULRG 0XOWLSOH PL[HGHIIHFWPRGHOV ZHUH XVHG WRGHVFULEH LIZHLJKW RU OHQJWK YHORFLW\=
VFRUHVFKDQJHGDFFRUGLQJWRVHDVRQDQGGLVWDQFHWRVRXUFHVRIIRRGDQGKHDOWKFDUH :HEXLOWJHQHUDOL]HGHVWLPDWLQJHTXDWLRQ*((PRGHOVWRDVVHVVWKHULVNRIPRUWDOLW\
ZLWKLQWKUHHPRQWKVVHSDUDWHO\IRULQGLFDWRUVRIDWWDLQHGDQGORQJLWXGLQDOJURZWK7R DVVHVV WKH ULVN RI PDOQXWULWLRQ DW WKH DJH RI WZR \HDUV ZH XVHG VLPSOH OLQHDU DQG ORJLVWLFUHJUHVVLRQPRGHOVZLWKJURZWKLQGLFDWRUVGXULQJLQIDQF\DV WKHLQGHSHQGHQW YDULDEOHV$UHDVXQGHUWKH52&FXUYHV$852&ZHUHWKHEDVLVIRUHYDOXDWLQJDQG FRPSDULQJWKHSUHGLFWLYHDELOLWLHVRIJURZWKYHORFLW\DQGDWWDLQHGJURZWKWRSUHGLFW GHDWKZLWKLQWKUHHPRQWKVRUPDOQXWULWLRQDWWKHDJHRIWZR\HDUVUHVSHFWLYHO\
(WKLFDO DSSURYDO ZDV REWDLQHG IURP DSSURSULDWH LQVWLWXWLRQV DQG HWKLFDO SULQFLSOHV ZHUHUHVSHFWHG
5HVXOWV
*URZWK YHORFLW\ =VFRUHV ZHUH ORZ MXVW DIWHU ELUWK LQ WKH %ZDPDQGD FRKRUW DQG LPSURYHG VOLJKWO\ ZLWK LQFUHDVLQJ DJH ,Q WKH %KDNWDSXU FRKRUW ZHLJKW DQG OHQJWK YHORFLW\ =VFRUHV ZHUH DERYH WKH PHGLDQ RI WKH :+2 VWDQGDUGV LQ WKH ILUVW WKUHH PRQWKV RI OLIH $IWHU D GHFUHDVH XQWLO WKH DJH RI DQG PRQWKV UHVSHFWLYHO\ = VFRUHVLPSURYHGPDUJLQDOO\XQWLOPRQWKV
:HLJKW DQG OHQJWK YHORFLW\ =VFRUHV VKRZHG D PDUNHG VHDVRQDO SDWWHUQ LQ WKH
%ZDPDQGD FRKRUW ZKHUHDV LQGLFHV RI DWWDLQHG JURZWK GHFUHDVHG FRQWLQXRXVO\ RYHU WLPH$JHDQGVHDVRQZHUHLQGHSHQGHQWO\DVVRFLDWHGZLWKZHLJKWDQGOHQJWKYHORFLW\
:HLJKW DQG OHQJWK YHORFLW\ ZHUH EHWWHU LQ SUHGLFWLQJ GHDWK ZLWKLQ WKH QH[W WKUHH PRQWKVFRPSDUHGWRWKHLUDWWDLQHGJURZWKFRXQWHUSDUWVLQWKH%ZDPDQGDFRKRUW,Q FRQWUDVW WKHUH ZDV QR DGYDQWDJH WR DVVHVV 08$& ORQJLWXGLQDOO\ ,Q WKH %KDNWDSXU
FRKRUWDWWDLQHGJURZWKLQGLFHVDWWKHDJHRIPRQWKVKDGEHWWHUDELOLWLHVWRSUHGLFW XQGHUQXWULWLRQDWWKHDJHRIWZR\HDUVWKDQZHLJKWDQGOHQJWKYHORFLW\GXULQJSHULRGV LQLQIDQF\
&RQFOXVLRQV
2XU UHVXOWV VKRZ WKDW PHDVXUHV RI DWWDLQHG DQG ORQJLWXGLQDO JURZWK XVHG IRU WKLV WKHVLVFDSWXUHSDUWO\GLIIHUHQWDVSHFWVRIFKLOGJURZWK7KHUHIRUHERWKDSSURDFKHVDUH XVHIXO WR XQGHUVWDQG DQG VWXG\ PDOQXWULWLRQ &XUUHQWO\ WKH SUDFWLFDO XVH RI JURZWK YHORFLW\=VFRUHVKDVVRPHOLPLWDWLRQVEXWWKHLUYDOXHIRUUHVHDUFKDQGIRUVKRUWWHUP SUHGLFWLRQRIXQIRUWXQDWHKHDOWKRXWFRPHVVKRXOGEHFRQVLGHUHG
/LVWRISXEOLFDWLRQV
6FKZLQJHU&/XQGH70$QGHUVHQ3.LVPXO+9DQGHQ%URHFN-6HDVRQDODQG VSDWLDOIDFWRUVUHODWHGWRORQJLWXGLQDOSDWWHUQVRIFKLOGJURZWKLQ%ZDPDQGD'5
&RQJR(DUWK3HUVSHFWLYHV
KWWSZZZHDUWKSHUVSHFWLYHVFRPFRQWHQW
6FKZLQJHU&)DGQHV/79DQGHQ%URHFN-8VLQJJURZWKYHORFLW\WRSUHGLFWFKLOG PRUWDOLW\$P-&OLQ1XWU0DU
KWWSDMFQQXWULWLRQRUJFRQWHQWDEVWUDFW
6FKZLQJHU & )DGQHV /7 6KUHVWKD 6. 6KUHVWKD 36 &KDQG\R 5. 6KUHVWKD % 0DQMHVZRUL 8 %RGKLGDWWD / 0DVRQ & 6WUDQG 7$3UHGLFWLQJ 8QGHUQXWULWLRQ DW
$JH <HDUV ZLWK (DUO\ $WWDLQHG :HLJKW DQG /HQJWK &RPSDUHG ZLWK :HLJKW DQG/HQJWK9HORFLW\-3HGLDWU0DU
KWWSVG[GRLRUJMMSHGV
&RQWHQWV
6FLHQWLILFHQYLURQPHQW,,
$FNQRZOHGJHPHQWV,,,
$EVWUDFW9 /LVWRISXEOLFDWLRQV9,,, /LVWRIILJXUHV;
,PSRUWDQWDEEUHYLDWLRQV;, ,QWURGXFWLRQ 'HILQLWLRQRIPDOQXWULWLRQ
$VVHVVPHQWRIPDOQXWULWLRQ
$WWDLQHGJURZWK
/RQJLWXGLQDOJURZWK
'HWHUPLQDQWVRIPDOQXWULWLRQ
,PPHGLDWHFDXVHV
8QGHUO\LQJDQGEDVLFFDXVHV
,QWHUJHQHUDWLRQDOHIIHFWV
5DWLRQDOH
$LPVDQGREMHFWLYHV 0HWKRGV
6WXG\VHWWLQJ
6WXG\GHVLJQV
'DWDFOHDQLQJ
6WDWLVWLFDOPHWKRGV
(WKLFV
5HVXOWV
3DSHU
3DSHU
3DSHU
'LVFXVVLRQ
'LVFXVVLRQRIWKHPHWKRGV
6WXG\GHVLJQ
%LDV
5DQGRPHUURU
$QWKURSRPHWULFDOVFRULQJ
*HQHUDOL]DELOLW\
6WDWLVWLFDOPHWKRGV
'LVFXVVLRQRIWKHPDLQILQGLQJV
&RQFOXVLRQV 5HIHUHQFHV
/LVWRIILJXUHV
)LJXUH &RQFHSWXDOIUDPHZRUNIRUFDXVHVRIFKLOGPDOQXWULWLRQ
)LJXUH 0DS RI WKH 'HPRFUDWLF 5HSXEOLF RI WKH &RQJR '5& ZLWK WKH
%ZDPDQGDVWXG\VLWH
)LJXUH 0DS RI 1HSDO ZLWK HFRORJLFDO ]RQHV DQG DGPLQLVWUDWLYH XQLWV DQG WKH
%KDNWDSXUVWXG\VLWH
)LJXUH 6WXG\SURILOHRIWKHFRKRUWVWXG\LQ%ZDPDQGD'5&
)LJXUH 6WXG\SURILOHRIWKHFRKRUWVWXG\LQ%KDNWDSXU1HSDO
)LJXUH 0HDQDQG&,RIYDULRXVJURZWKLQGLFDWRUVDFFRUGLQJWRWKHWLPHRI WKH\HDU
)LJXUH 5HFHLYHU2SHUDWLQJ&KDUDFWHULVWLF52&FXUYHVLQGLFDWLQJWKHDELOLW\WR SUHGLFW GHDWK ZLWKLQ WKUHH PRQWKV LQ FKLOGUHQ DJHG PRQWKV LQFOXGHGLQWKHFRKRUWVWXG\LQ%ZDPDQGD'5&
)LJXUH 0HDQ=VFRUHVZLWK&,RYHUWLPHIURPDJHPRQWKVDFFRUGLQJ WRXQGHUZHLJKWDWPRQWKV\HV UHGFLUFOHVQR EODFNWULDQJOHVIRU
$ZHLJKWYHORFLW\DQG%ZHLJKWIRUDJHRUDFFRUGLQJ WRVWXQWLQJDW PRQWKVIRU&OHQJWKYHORFLW\DQG'OHQJWKIRUDJHRIFKLOGUHQ HQUROOHGLQWKH0$/('VWXG\
,PSRUWDQWDEEUHYLDWLRQV
$852& $UHDXQGHUWKHUHFHLYHURSHUDWLQJFKDUDFWHULVWLFFXUYH
&, &RQILGHQFHLQWHUYDO
'5& 'HPRFUDWLF5HSXEOLFRIWKH&RQJR '+6 'HPRJUDSKLF+HDOWK6XUYH\
*(( *HQHUDOL]HGHVWLPDWLQJHTXDWLRQV +$= +HLJKWIRUDJH=VFRUH
/$= /HQJWKIRUDJH=VFRUH /)8 /RVWWRIROORZXS /9= /HQJWKYHORFLW\=VFRUH
0*56 0XOWLFHQWUHJURZWKUHIHUHQFHVWXG\
08$& 0LGXSSHUDUPFLUFXPIHUHQFH 1*2 1RQJRYHUQPHQWDORUJDQL]DWLRQ 5&$ 5DQGRPFRHIILFLHQWDQDO\VLV 52& 5HFHLYHURSHUDWLQJFKDUDFWHULVWLF 6' 6WDQGDUGGHYLDWLRQ
6*$ 6PDOOIRUJHVWDWLRQDODJH
81'3 8QLWHG1DWLRQV'HYHORSPHQW3URJUDPPH :$= :HLJKWIRUDJH=VFRUH
:+2 :RUOG+HDOWK2UJDQL]DWLRQ :+= :HLJKWIRUKHLJKW=VFRUH :/= :HLJKWIRUOHQJWK=VFRUH :9= :HLJKWYHORFLW\=VFRUH
,QWURGXFWLRQ
&KLOG JURZWK KDV ORQJ EHHQ UHFRJQL]HG DV DPLUURU RI DQ LQGLYLGXDO¶V ZHOOEHLQJ 0RUH UHFHQWO\ LW KDV DOVR EHHQ DFNQRZOHGJHG DV DQ LQGLFDWRU RI WKH IXQFWLRQLQJ RI KHDOWK VHUYLFHV LQHTXDOLW\ LQ KHDOWK ZHDOWK DQG QXWULWLRQ ZLWKLQ DQG DPRQJ SRSXODWLRQV>@7KHSHULRGVGXULQJSUHJQDQF\DQGHDUO\FKLOGKRRGDUHVXJJHVWHGWR EHFULWLFDOIRUFKLOGJURZWKZLWKLQDGHTXDWHJURZWKSRWHQWLDOO\OHDGLQJWRSHUPDQHQW LPSDLUPHQWVLQKHDOWKVFKRRODWWDLQPHQWDQGHFRQRPLFSURGXFWLYLW\>@*OREDOO\
PDOQXWULWLRQLQDOOLWVIRUPVDIIHFWVRQHLQWKUHHSHRSOHRIDOODJHVDQGWRJHWKHUZLWK SRRUGLHWFRQWULEXWHVE\IDUWKHPRVWWRWKHEXUGHQRIGLVHDVH>@
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
7KLVLQWURGXFWLRQSURYLGHVDGHILQLWLRQRIPDOQXWULWLRQ$SSURDFKHVWRWKHDVVHVVPHQW RIPDOQXWULWLRQZLWKLQGLFDWRUVRIERWKDWWDLQHGJURZWKDQGORQJLWXGLQDOJURZWKDUH GHVFULEHG ZLWK DQ HPSKDVLV RQ JURZWK YHORFLW\ DV RQH PHDVXUH RI ORQJLWXGLQDO JURZWK 7R FRPSOHWH WKLV FKDSWHU WKH PXOWLIDFWRULDO HWLRORJ\ RI PDOQXWULWLRQ LV LQGLFDWHGDQGVHOHFWHGGHWHUPLQDQWVDUHRXWOLQHG
'HILQLWLRQRIPDOQXWULWLRQ
,QWKLVWKHVLV,ZLOOUHIHUWRJURZWKRQWKHRUJDQLVPLFOHYHOLHWKHFKLOGDVDZKROH DV WKH LQFUHDVH LQ OLQHDU GLPHQVLRQ PHDVXUHG DV KHLJKW RU OHQJWK DV ZHOO DV WKH FKDQJHLQERG\FRPSRVLWLRQPHDVXUHGDVZHLJKWDUPFLUFXPIHUHQFHHWF7KHUHDUH
PDQ\ FRQGLWLRQV DQG UHDVRQV IRU D VORZHU RU IDVWHU JURZWK WKDQ WKDW H[SHFWHG 7KH (XURSHDQ6RFLHW\IRU3HGLDWULF(QGRFULQRORJ\GLVWLQJXLVKHVSULPDU\VHFRQGDU\DQG LGLRSDWKLF JURZWK GLVRUGHUV >@ &DXVHV RI SULPDU\ VKRUW VWDWXUH LQFOXGH FOLQLFDOO\
ZHOOGHILQHGV\QGURPHVHJ7XUQHUV\QGURPHEHLQJVPDOOIRUJHVWDWLRQDODJHZLWK QR FDWFKXS DQG VNHOHWDO G\VSODVLDV 6HFRQGDU\ JURZWK GLVRUGHUV FDQ EH GXH WR DPRQJVW RWKHUV PHWDEROLF DQG HQGRFULQH GLVRUGHUV SV\FKRVRFLDO IDFWRUV PHGLFDO WUHDWPHQWDQGPDOQXWULWLRQ
0DOQXWULWLRQ FDQ EH GHILQHG DV DQ DEQRUPDO SK\VLRORJLFDO FRQGLWLRQ LQ ZKLFK WKH ERG\ GRHV QRW UHFHLYH DQ DSSURSULDWH DPRXQW RI QXWULHQWV IRU SURSHU IXQFWLRQLQJ DGDSWHGIURP>@$OWKRXJKWKHGHILQLWLRQFRYHUVERWKRYHUDQGXQGHUQXWULWLRQLQ WKLVWKHVLV,XVHWKHH[SUHVVLRQVPDOQXWULWLRQDQGXQGHUQXWULWLRQLQWHUFKDQJHDEO\DQG GRQRWFRQVLGHURYHUQXWULWLRQ
$VVHVVPHQWRIPDOQXWULWLRQ
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
,QJHQHUDOPDOQXWULWLRQFDQEHDVVHVVHGFURVVVHFWLRQDOO\LHDWDVLQJOHWLPHSRLQW RUORQJLWXGLQDOO\LHUHSHDWHGO\DWWZRRUPRUHWLPHSRLQWV$PHDVXUHRIJURZWKDWD VLQJOHWLPHSRLQWUHIOHFWVZKDWGLPHQVLRQWKHFKLOGKDVDWWDLQHGXSWRWKDWWLPHSRLQW DQGLVWKHUHIRUHDFXPXODWLYHPHDVXUHRIDOOWKHHYHQWVLQWKHSDVW,WLVUHIHUUHGWRDV
³DWWDLQHGJURZWK´LQWKLVWKHVLV,QFRQWUDVWORQJLWXGLQDOJURZWKLVDQLQVWDQWDQHRXV PHDVXUH GHVFULELQJ WKH HYHQWV WKDW KDYH KDSSHQHG LQ WKH WLPH EHWZHHQ WZR PHDVXUHPHQWV%RWKDSSURDFKHVDUHGHVFULEHGLQPRUHGHWDLOEHORZ
$WWDLQHGJURZWK
7KH PRVW FRPPRQ LQGLFHV RI DWWDLQHG JURZWK DUH OHQJWKKHLJKWIRUDJH LQGLFDWLQJ VWXQWLQJ ZHLJKWIRUOHQJWKKHLJKW LQGLFDWLQJ ZDVWLQJ DQG ZHLJKWIRUDJH LQGLFDWLQJXQGHUZHLJKW7KHFRQGLWLRQLVFRPPRQO\FODVVLILHGDVPRGHUDWHZKHQWKH
=VFRUH LV DQG DV VHYHUH ZKHQ WKH =VFRUH LV 7KHVH FXWRIIV DUH EDVHG RQ VWDWLVWLFDOJURXQGVEXWLGHDOO\WKH\VKRXOGEHGHWHUPLQHGE\WKHLUOHYHORIDVVRFLDWLRQ ZLWK QHJDWLYH ULVNV >@ /HYHOV RI GHILFLWV LQ DWWDLQHG =VFRUHV KDYH EHHQ VKRZQ WR FRUUHVSRQGWRQHJDWLYHKHDOWKRXWFRPHVVXFKDVGHDWK>@6WLOOWKHFXWRIIVUHPDLQ VRPHZKDWDUELWUDU\
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
UHIHUHQFH SRSXODWLRQ 7KHVH JURZWK VWDQGDUGV DUH ZLGHO\ XVHG ZLWK RXW RI JRYHUQPHQWVLQGLFDWLQJWKHLPSOHPHQWDWLRQLQWKHLUFRXQWU\LQ>@
/RQJLWXGLQDOJURZWK
/RQJLWXGLQDOJURZWKFDQEHDVVHVVHGLQGLIIHUHQWZD\V9DULRXVDSSURDFKHVWRGHILQH DQGVFRUHORQJLWXGLQDOJURZWKHYROYHGRYHUWKHSDVWZKLFKZLOOEHEULHIO\GHVFULEHG KHUH
7KH ILUVW YHORFLW\ JURZWK FKDUW ZDV SXEOLVKHG LQ E\ %D\HU DQG %D\OH\ >@
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
7RGD\SURSRQHQWVRIWKHORQJLWXGLQDODVVHVVPHQWRIJURZWKVWLOODJUHHWKDWDWWDLQHG JURZWKLVFRQYHQLHQWIRUVFUHHQLQJDQGFURVVVHFWLRQDOSRSXODWLRQEDVHGVWXGLHVEXW LWPLVVHVLQIRUPDWLRQ RQWHPSRUDU\FKDQJHVHVSHFLDOO\FRQFHUQLQJGLVHDVH SURJUHVV RU VXFFHVV RI LQWHUYHQWLRQ ,Q WKHVH FDVHV JURZWK YHORFLW\ LV FRQVLGHUHG D PRUH
VHQVLWLYH PHDVXUH RI LQGLYLGXDO JURZWK ZKLFK FDQ GHWHFW PRUH VXEWOH FKDQJHV >
@ )DU IHZHU UHIHUHQFHV IRU YHORFLW\ H[LVW FRPSDUHG WR DWWDLQHG JURZWK 'LVDGYDQWDJHVLQSUDFWLFDODSSOLFDWLRQDQGDODFNRIJRRGTXDOLW\ORQJLWXGLQDOJURZWK VWXGLHV PLJKW EH UHDVRQV IRU WKLV VFDUFLW\ 6RPH H[DPSOHV RI FXUUHQW SXEOLVKHG YHORFLW\UHIHUHQFHVDUH)DONQHU>@7DQQHUHWDO>@7DQQHUHWDO>@5RFKHHW DO>@6RUYDHWDO>@6RUYDHWDO>@=XPUDZLHWDO>@%HUNH\HWDO>@
YDQW +RI HW DO >@ $OO WKHVH YHORFLW\ UHIHUHQFHV GLIIHU FRQVLGHUDEOH LQ WKHLU XQGHUO\LQJSRSXODWLRQHJWKHIHHGLQJPRGHWKHDJHRIJHVWDWLRQDVZHOODVJURZWK LQFUHPHQWVXVHGEHWZHHQWKUHHPRQWKDQGRQH\HDULQDJHVSDQUHSRUWHGIURP±
PRQWKVWR±\HDUVDQGLQWKHJUDSKLFDOGLVSOD\
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
'HWHUPLQDQWVRIPDOQXWULWLRQ
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
VKDUHPDQ\FDXVDOSDWKZD\V>@$QRYHUYLHZRIGHWHUPLQDQWVIRUPDOQXWULWLRQ LQGHSHQGHQWRIWKHDQWKURSRPHWULFDODVVHVVPHQWPHWKRGLVJLYHQLQWKLVFKDSWHU
)LJXUH&RQFHSWXDOIUDPHZRUNIRUFDXVHVRIFKLOGPDOQXWULWLRQUHSURGXFHGIURP%ODFNHW DO>S@ZLWKSHUPLVVLRQIURP(OVHYLHU
,PPHGLDWHFDXVHV
2Q WKH LPPHGLDWH OHYHO DQ LQDGHTXDWH GLHW DQG WKH GLVHDVH EXUGHQ DUH WKH PDLQ GHWHUPLQDQWVRIPDOQXWULWLRQ
$Q LQDGHTXDWH GLHW FDQ EH WKH UHVXOW RI D GHFUHDVHG QXWULHQW LQWDNH DQ LPSDLUHG DEVRUSWLRQRUPHWDEROLVPRIQXWULHQWVRUDKLJKHUGHPDQGIRUQXWULHQWV>@)HHGLQJ UHFRPPHQGDWLRQV IRU FKLOGUHQ E\ WKH :+2 LQFOXGH WKH LQLWLDWLRQ RI EUHDVWIHHGLQJ ZLWKLQKRXUVDIWHU GHOLYHU\H[FOXVLYHEUHDVWIHHGLQJXSWRVL[PRQWKVRIDJHDQG FRQWLQXHG EUHDVWIHHGLQJ XS WR WZR \HDUV RI DJH FRPELQHG ZLWK FRPSOHPHQWDU\
IHHGLQJRIDGHTXDWHTXDOLW\DQGTXDQWLW\>@6WXGLHVLQFOXGHGLQDUHFHQWUHYLHZRQ EUHDVWIHHGLQJFRXQVHOLQJLQWHUYHQWLRQVQRWEUHDVWIHHGLQJSHUVHRQJURZWKZDVQRW
FRQFOXVLYHDQGWKHLUPHWDDQDO\VLVGLGQRWVKRZDQ\GLIIHUHQFHLQDWWDLQHGZHLJKWRU OHQJWK DW PRQWKV RI DJH >@ 1HYHUWKHOHVV D SURWHFWLYH HIIHFW RI H[FOXVLYH DQG SDUWLDOEUHDVWIHHGLQJ ZDVVHHQ IRUPRUWDOLW\DQGPRUELGLW\GLDUUKHDDQG UHVSLUDWRU\
LQIHFWLRQ>@
$OWKRXJK WKHUH LV QR GRXEW WKDW DQ DGHTXDWH GLHW LV FHQWUDO WR FKLOG JURZWK VLPSOH LQGLFDWRUV WR PHDVXUH LQIDQW IHHGLQJ DUH PRUH GLIILFXOW WR GHILQH :+2 VXJJHVWHG LQGLFDWRUV IRU LQIDQW DQG \RXQJ FKLOG IHHGLQJ ,<&) SUDFWLFHV LQ WR DVVHVV WDUJHW DQG PRQLWRU DGHTXDWH IHHGLQJ DPRQJ FKLOGUHQ ± PRQWKV 7KH HLJKW FRUH LQGLFDWRUVLQFOXGHILYHIRUFRPSOHPHQWDU\IHHGLQJSUDFWLFHVQDPHO\LQWURGXFWLRQRI VROLGVHPLVROLGRUVRIWIRRGVPLQLPXPGLHWDU\GLYHUVLW\PLQLPXPPHDOIUHTXHQF\
PLQLPXPDFFHSWDEOHGLHWDQGFRQVXPSWLRQRILURQULFKRULURQIRUWLILHGIRRGV>@
$VVRFLDWLRQV RI WKRVH LQGLFDWRUV ZLWK FKLOG DQWKURSRPHWU\ ZHUH VKRZQ DW GLIIHUHQW OHYHOV>@
$GLYHUVHGLHWLVLPSRUWDQWWRPHHWUHTXLUHPHQWVIRUDOOQHFHVVDU\QXWULHQWVHVSHFLDOO\
IRUYXOQHUDEOHLQGLYLGXDOVVXFKDVJURZLQJFKLOGUHQ5HVHDUFKKDVEHHQFDUULHGRXWWR H[SORUH WKH UROH RI VLQJOH PLFURQXWULHQWV LQ FKLOG JURZWK 8S WR GDWH WKH RQO\
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
UDQGRPL]HGFRQWUROOHGWULDOIRXQGVPDOOEXWVLJQLILFDQWHIIHFWVRQZHLJKWDQGOHQJWK LQ,QGLDQWHUPEXWORZELUWKZHLJKWLQIDQWV>@1HYHUWKHOHVVDYLWDPLQ'GHILFLHQF\
OHDGV WR ULFNHWV UDWKHU WKDQ VKRUW VWDWXUH >@ 7KH PHFKDQLVPV RI YLWDPLQ $ RQ JURZWKDUHXQFOHDU2EVHUYDWLRQDOVWXGLHVDQGVXSSOHPHQWDWLRQVWXGLHVRQWKHHIIHFW
RIYLWDPLQ$RQJURZWKDUHLQFRQVLVWHQW>@DQGWKHUHZDVQRRYHUDOOHIIHFWRQHLWKHU ZHLJKW RU OHQJWK LQ D PHWDDQDO\VLV >@ 7KH LPSDFW RI PXOWLPLFURQXWULHQW VXSSOHPHQWV RQ JURZWK GRHV QRW DOORZ DQ\ FRQFOXVLRQV GXH WR LQFRQVLVWHQW UHVXOWV
> @ 3RROLQJ WKH GDWD RI GDWDVHWV 5DPDNULVKQDQ HW DO >@ IRXQG D VPDOO HIIHFWRIPXOWLSOHPLFURQXWULHQWVXSSOHPHQWVRQOHQJWKEXWQRWRQZHLJKWRU:+=
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
@ SUREDEO\ WKURXJK WKH SDWKZD\ RI PDODEVRUSWLRQ DQG FKURQLF LQWHVWLQDO LQIODPPDWLRQ>@
7KH LQWHUDFWLRQ EHWZHHQ GLVHDVH EXUGHQ DQG QXWULWLRQDO VWDWXV LV FRPSOH[ DQG UHFLSURFDO0DOQXWULWLRQFRPSURPLVHVWKHLPPXQHV\VWHPOHDYLQJWKHFKLOGUHQPRUH VXVFHSWLEOH WR LQIHFWLRQV ZKLFK LQ WXUQ FDXVHV RU ZRUVHQV ORZ GLHWDU\ LQWDNH E\
UHGXFLQJ WKH DSSHWLWH DIIHFWLQJ WKH DEVRUSWLRQ RI QXWULHQWV DQGRU LQFUHDVLQJ WKH QXWULHQWGHPDQG>@
8QGHUO\LQJDQGEDVLFFDXVHV
8QGHUO\LQJ FDXVHV GHILQH WKH VHWWLQJ RQ D KRXVHKROG OHYHO LQ ZKLFK WKH LPPHGLDWH GHWHUPLQDQWV RSHUDWH ,Q WKH /DQFHW IUDPHZRUN WKH\ DUH VXPPDUL]HG DV DFFHVV WR IRRGIRRGVHFXULW\IHHGLQJDQGFDUHJLYLQJUHVRXUFHVDQGDFFHVVWRKHDOWKFDUHDQG DKHDOWK\HQYLURQPHQW
)RRGVHFXULW\LVDEURDGWHUPDQGDFOHDUGHILQLWLRQDQGDFRPSUHKHQVLYHPHDVXUHRI IRRGVHFXULW\DUHWKHUHIRUHFKDOOHQJLQJ>@2QHGHILQLWLRQZDVVXJJHVWHGDWWKH :RUOG6XPPLWRI)RRG6HFXULW\LQ>@
³$ VLWXDWLRQ WKDW H[LVWV ZKHQ DOO SHRSOH DW DOO WLPHV KDYH SK\VLFDO VRFLDO DQG HFRQRPLFDFFHVVWRVXIILFLHQWVDIHDQGQXWULWLRXVIRRGWKDWPHHWVWKHLUGLHWDU\QHHGV DQGIRRGSUHIHUHQFHVIRUDQDFWLYHDQGKHDOWK\OLIH7KHIRXUSLOODUVRIIRRGVHFXULW\
DUHDYDLODELOLW\DFFHVVXWLOL]DWLRQDQGVWDELOLW\´
)RRGLQVHFXULW\ ZDVFRQVLVWHQWO\ DVVRFLDWHG ZLWKVWXQWLQJ>@ DQGZDVWLQJ>@
DFURVV GLIIHUHQW FRXQWULHV (VSHFLDOO\ LQ KRXVHKROGV WKDW ZHUH FKURQLFDOO\ IRRG LQVHFXUH FKLOGUHQ KDG ORZHU +$= >@ 2QO\ D IHZ VWXGLHV GLG QRW ILQG DQ\
DVVRFLDWLRQ EHWZHHQ IRRG VHFXULW\ DQG FKLOG DQWKURSRPHWU\ SRWHQWLDOO\ GXH WR GLIIHUHQFHVLQPHWKRGRORJLHV>@
7KH FDULQJ FRPSRQHQW RI WKH XQGHUO\LQJ IDFWRUV LQFOXGHV DPRQJVW RWKHUV KHDOWK VHHNLQJ EHKDYLRU FRJQLWLYH VWLPXODWLRQ RI WKH FKLOG DQG DQWHQDWDO FDUH IRU WKH PRWKHU 7LPH DQG DWWHQWLRQ JLYHQ WR WKH SK\VLFDO DQG PHQWDO FDUH DUH LQ WXUQ LQIOXHQFHG E\ WKH HFRQRPLF VWDWXV WKH PHQWDO DQG SK\VLFDO KHDOWK VWDWXV DQG WKH DXWRQRP\DQGWKHNQRZOHGJHRIWKHFDUHWDNHU>@(VSHFLDOO\WKHPRWKHU¶VHGXFDWLRQ KDV EHHQ JLYHQ DWWHQWLRQ VKRZLQJ D SRVLWLYH LQIOXHQFH RQ KRZ PRWKHUV FDUH IRU WKHPVHOYHVDQGWKHLUFKLOGUHQ>@
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
3RYHUW\LVDIDFWRUZLWKWKHSRWHQWLDOWRDIIHFWDOOWKUHHGHWHUPLQDQWVRQWKHXQGHUO\LQJ OHYHO ,Q DQ DQDO\VLV RI VXUYH\V IURP FRXQWULHV VWXQWLQJ ZDV WLPHV PRUH SUHYDOHQWLQWKHSRRUHVWFRPSDUHGWRWKHULFKHVW>@7KHDVVRFLDWLRQRI KRXVHKROGSRYHUW\ZLWKGLIIHUHQWDQWKURSRPHWULFLQGLFDWRUVZDVDOVRREVHUYHGDFURVV GLIIHUHQWVHWWLQJV>@
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
$OVRLQXUEDQDUHDVVHDVRQDOLW\RIFKLOGJURZWKKDVEHHQGHVFULEHG>
@ ,Q KLJKLQFRPH FRXQWULHV GLIIHUHQFHV LQ JURZWK UDWHV KDYH EHHQ OLQNHG WR WHPSHUDWXUH > @ DQG VXQOLJKW H[SRVXUH > @ DOWKRXJK WKH PHFKDQLVPVUHPDLQOHVVFOHDU7KHUHODWLRQRIKHLJKWIRUDJHRUVWXQWLQJDQGVHDVRQLV QRWDVREYLRXV>@SUREDEO\EHFDXVHDWWDLQHGKHLJKWLVDFXPXODWLYH LQGLFDWRUWKDWLVQRWVHQVLWLYHWRVKRUWWHUPULVNIDFWRUVVXFKDVVHDVRQ>@
*HRJUDSKLFDOORFDWLRQLVDSUR[\IRUVHYHUDOXQGHUO\LQJGHWHUPLQDQWVWRREXWVSDWLDO SDUDPHWHUV DUH QRW H[WHQVLYHO\ VWXGLHG LQ WKH ILHOG RI SXEOLF KHDOWK QXWULWLRQ :KLOH WKH\ KDYH EHHQ IRXQG WR H[SODLQ GLIIHUHQFHV LQ WKH SUHYDOHQFH RI PDOQXWULWLRQ DW GLIIHUHQWVFDOHVLQVRPHVWXGLHV>@RWKHUDXWKRUVDUJXHWKDWGLIIHUHQFHVH[LVW RQO\DWWKHKRXVHKROGOHYHOPDNLQJWDUJHWHGLQWHUYHQWLRQVDWKLJKHUOHYHOVLQHIIHFWLYH
>@ &RPSDULVRQ RI XUEDQ DQG UXUDO VHWWLQJV VKRZ VLJQLILFDQW GLIIHUHQFHV ZLWK JHQHUDOO\ KLJKHU VWXQWLQJ UDWHV LQ UXUDO DUHDV >@ 1HYHUWKHOHVV UDSLG XUEDQL]DWLRQ FRPELQHGZLWKSRRULQIUDVWUXFWXUHLQWKHRIWHQLQIRUPDOXUEDQVHWWOHPHQWVGLPLQLVKHV WKLV GLIIHUHQFH >@ 7KH UHDVRQV IRU VSDWLDO GLIIHUHQFHV DUH YDVW DQG LQFOXGH GLIIHUHQWLDODFFHVVWRIRRGZDWHUKHDOWKFDUHDQGHGXFDWLRQGLIIHUHQFHVLQWKHTXDOLW\
RI KHDOWK FDUH FXOWXUDO YDOXHV OLYHOLKRRG DFWLYLWLHV TXDOLW\ RI VRLO KRXVLQJ DQG FRQIOLFW>@
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³VXSSO\VLGH´LQIUDVWUXFWXUHDQGVHUYLFHV>
@UHIOHFWLQJJRRGJRYHUQDQFHDQGSROLWLFDOZLOO7KLVLVDOVRSRLQWHGRXWE\6HQ DQG FROOHDJXHV LQ D FRPSDUDWLYH DQDO\VLV RI ORZLQFRPH FRXQWULHV 7KH\ DVVLJQ WKH UHODWLYH VXFFHVV RI VRPH FRXQWULHV WR WKH SRVLWLYH UROH RI JRYHUQPHQW ZLWK DFWLYH SXEOLFDFWLRQDIIHFWLQJWKHZKROHSRSXODWLRQLQFOXGLQJWKHSRRU>@
,QWHUJHQHUDWLRQDOHIIHFWV
,Q WKH /DQFHW VHULHV WKH LPSRUWDQFH RI LQWHUJHQHUDWLRQDO IDFWRUV RQ FKLOG PDOQXWULWLRQDVDQH[WHQVLRQRIWKHIRUPHU81,&()PRGHODUHHPSKDVL]HG>@
%LUWKZHLJKW RI WKH RIIVSULQJ KDV EHHQ DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK PDWHUQDO LQWDNH RU VWDWXV IRU PLFURQXWULHQWV VXFK DV ]LQF LURQ YLWDPLQ $ FDOFLXP DQG YLWDPLQ % >@
+RZHYHUVLQJOHQXWULHQWVXSSOHPHQWDWLRQWULDOVGXULQJSUHJQDQF\KDYHLQJHQHUDOQRW GHPRQVWUDWHG DQ\ HIIHFW RQ FKLOG JURZWK VXFK DV IRU H[DPSOH YLWDPLQ $ DQG ]LQF
>@0DWHUQDOVWXQWLQJDQGORZ%0,SXWVWKHRIIVSULQJDWKLJKHUULVNRIEHLQJ ERUQVPDOOIRUJHVWDWLRQDODJHRUZLWKORZELUWKZHLJKWDVZHOODVEHLQJVWXQWHGDQG ZDVWHG LQ FKLOGKRRG > @ 7KHUH LV VRPH HYLGHQFH OLQNLQJ WKH PRWKHU¶V ELUWKZHLJKW WR WKH RIIVSULQJ¶V ELUWKZHLJKW LQGHSHQGHQW RI WKH PRWKHU¶V SRVWQDWDO JURZWK >@ DOWKRXJK WKH ODWWHU ZDV DOVR IRXQG WR LQIOXHQFH WKH RIIVSULQJ¶V
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
³KHULWDELOLW\RISRYHUW\³>@%RWKWRWDOIRRGUHVWULFWLRQDVZHOODVGHILFLHQFLHVLQ VLQJOHPLFURQXWULHQWVIRODWHYLWDPLQ%DQG%]LQFDQGVHOHQLXPZHUHIRXQGWR UHVXOWLQHSLJHQHWLFPRGLILFDWLRQVFKDQJHVLQ'1$PHWK\ODWLRQ>@
7KH IRUPHU DVVXPSWLRQ WKDW SRRU JURZWK RI FKLOGUHQ LQ ORZLQFRPH FRXQWULHV LV PDLQO\ DWWULEXWDEOH WR JHQHWLF IDFWRUV KDV EHHQ TXHVWLRQHG >@ 8QGHU RSWLPDO FRQGLWLRQVIRUJURZWKYDULDWLRQLQDGXOWKHLJKWLVYDVWO\JHQHWLFDOO\GHWHUPLQHGWDOO SDUHQWVKDYHWDOOFKLOGUHQDQGVKRUWSDUHQWVKDYHVKRUWFKLOGUHQ>@$OVRZHLJKWDW ELUWK DQG LQ HDUO\ FKLOGKRRG ZDV VKRZQ WR KDYH D KLJK KHULWDELOLW\ LQ D KHDOWK\
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
HIIHFW GXULQJ FKLOGKRRG WKDQ GXULQJ DGROHVFHQFH > @ DQG DOVR LI WKH\ KDYH VSDQQHGVHYHUDOJHQHUDWLRQV>@
5DWLRQDOH
0DOQXWULWLRQ DV DQ DJJUHJDWH RI WKH GLIIHUHQW PDQLIHVWDWLRQ DQG LWV UHFLSURFDO UHODWLRQVKLS ZLWK LQIHFWLRQV KDV EHHQ GHVFULEHG DV WKH PDLQ FDXVH RI LPPXQRGHILFLHQF\ LQ WKH ZRUOG >@ DQG FRQWULEXWHV WR WKH WRWDO GLVDELOLW\
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
>@
0DOQRXULVKHGFKLOGUHQEHDUDKLJKHUULVNRIVKRUWDQGORQJWHUPKHDOWKFRQVHTXHQFHV EXWDOVRQHXURGHYHORSPHQWDODQGHFRQRPLFSRWHQWLDOVDUHFRPSURPLVHGJHQHUDWLQJD VXEVWDQWLDOORVVLQKXPDQFDSLWDO>@7KHVHFRQVHTXHQFHVFDQH[WHQGLQWR QH[WJHQHUDWLRQV VHH FKDSWHU ,QDGGLWLRQ RIDOOWKH GHDWKV RIFKLOGUHQ
\RXQJHUWKDQILYH\HDUVJOREDOO\DUHDVVRFLDWHGZLWKXQGHUQXWULWLRQ>@ZLWKDGRVH UHVSRQVH UHODWLRQVKLS DOVR OLQNLQJ PLOG WR PRGHUDWH OHYHOV RI ZDVWLQJ VWXQWLQJ DQG XQGHUZHLJKWWRKLJKHUULVNVRIG\LQJ>@
7KHUHLVDFXUUHQWIRFXVRQWKHILUVWGD\VRIOLIHIRUSUHYHQWLRQDQGWUHDWPHQWRI PDOQXWULWLRQ,WUHPDLQVXQFOHDUWRZKLFKGHJUHHJURZWKIDOWHULQJEH\RQGWKHVH GD\V LV LUUHYHUVLEOH DQG LI LW LV UHYHUVLEOH ZKHWKHU FDWFKXS JURZWK DOVR UHVXOWV LQ UHVROYLQJRIWKHIXQFWLRQDOFRQVHTXHQFHV>@1HYHUWKHOHVVDQHPSKDVLVVKRXOGEH SXWRQSUHYHQWLQJPDOQXWULWLRQLQVWHDGRIWUHDWLQJLW>@RUDWOHDVWRQGHWHFWLQJ FKLOGUHQDWULVNRIPDOQXWULWLRQDVVRRQDVSRVVLEOHLQGHSHQGHQWRIDJH
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
>@
$LPVDQGREMHFWLYHV
7KHDLPRIWKLVWKHVLVLVWRGHVFULEHJURZWKYHORFLW\LQFKLOGUHQXQGHUWKHDJHRI XVLQJ WKH :+2 JURZWK YHORFLW\ VWDQGDUGV DQG WR H[DPLQH WKH DELOLW\ RI JURZWK YHORFLW\ =VFRUHV WR HDUO\ LGHQWLI\ FKLOGUHQ DW ULVN RI ZDVWLQJ VWXQWLQJ DQG XQGHUZHLJKWDQGWKHDELOLW\WRSUHGLFWVKRUWWHUPPRUWDOLW\
7KHVSHFLILFREMHFWLYHVRIWKLVWKHVLVDUH
WR GHVFULEH DJH DQG VH[GHSHQGHQW ZHLJKW DQG OHQJWK YHORFLW\ RI FKLOGUHQ
\RXQJHU WKDQ WZR \HDUV OLYLQJ LQ %ZDPDQGD '5& XVLQJ WKH :+2
&KLOG*URZWK6WDQGDUGV
WRUHODWHZHLJKWDQGOHQJWKYHORFLW\=VFRUHVRIFKLOGUHQOLYLQJLQ%ZDPDQGD '5&WRVHOHFWHGFOLPDWLFDQGVSDWLDOGHWHUPLQDQWVZLWK WKHIRFXVRQVHDVRQ DQGGLVWDQFHVWRVRXUFHVRIIRRGDQGKHDOWKFDUH
WR GHWHUPLQH WKH DELOLW\ RI ZHLJKW DQG OHQJWK YHORFLW\ =VFRUHV DV ZHOO DV FKDQJHVLQ08$&WRSUHGLFWFKLOGPRUWDOLW\ZLWKLQWKUHHPRQWKVLQDFRKRUWRI FKLOGUHQXQGHUWKHDJHRIWZRLQ%ZDPDQGD'5&
WR HVWLPDWH WKH DELOLW\ RI ZHLJKW DQG OHQJWK YHORFLW\ =VFRUHV LQ LQIDQF\ WR SUHGLFWVWXQWLQJZDVWLQJDQGXQGHUZHLJKWLQFKLOGUHQDJHGWZR\HDUVOLYLQJLQ WKH%KDNWDSXU0XQLFLSDOLW\1HSDODQG
WRFRPSDUHWKHPRUWDOLW\DQGPRUELGLW\SUHGLFWLQJDELOLW\RIYHORFLW\=VFRUHV WRWKDWRIDWWDLQHGJURZWKPHDVXUHV
0HWKRGV
'DWD IURP WZR FRPPXQLW\EDVHG FRKRUW VWXGLHV FRQVWLWXWH WKH EDVLV IRU WKLV WKHVLV RQHVWXG\LQWKH'HPRFUDWLF5HSXEOLFRIWKH&RQJR'5&DQGRQHLQ1HSDO%RWK VHWWLQJVDQGVWXG\GHVLJQVDUHGHVFULEHGEHORZ
6WXG\VHWWLQJ
6LWH7KH'HPRFUDWLF5HSXEOLFRIWKH&RQJR
7KHVWXG\ZDVFRQGXFWHGLQWKHKHDOWK]RQHRI%ZDPDQGD'HPRFUDWLF5HSXEOLFRI WKH&RQJR'5&7KLV]RQHLVDQDGPLQLVWUDWLRQDOXQLWZKLFKLVVLWXDWHGLQeTXDWHXU SURYLQFHLQWKHQRUWKZHVWRIWKH'5&)LJXUH,WFRYHUVDERXWNPZLWKWKH PRVW IUHTXHQW ODQG FRYHUV RI VDYDQQDK DQG HTXDWRULDO IRUHVWV DORQJ WKH ULYHUV 7KH FOLPDWH LV WURSLFDO ZLWK D GU\ VHDVRQ IURP 'HFHPEHU WR )HEUXDU\ DQG D ZHW VHDVRQ IURP$SULOWR1RYHPEHU 7KH DYHUDJH DQQXDOWHPSHUDWXUH LQWKHSURYLQFH e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
FRPSOHPHQWHGZLWKVROLGIRRGVZKLFKWUDGLWLRQDOO\ZDVDJUXHORIPDL]HDQGFDVVDYD
&KLOGUHQZHUHRQDYHUDJHFRPSOHWHO\ZHDQHGDWDJH PRQWKV %ZDPDQGD YLOODJH ZLWKDERXWLQKDELWDQWVZDVWKHPDLQYLOODJHLQWKLVKHDOWK]RQH,WKDGDUHIHUUDO KRVSLWDO ZLWK IRXU PHGLFDO GRFWRUV ZKLFK ZDV UXQ E\ D ORFDO 1*2 FDOOHG &',
%ZDPDQGD &HQWUH GH 'pYHORSSHPHQW ,QWpJUDO%ZDPDQGD 7HQ SHULSKHUDO KHDOWK FHQWHUVZHUHORFDWHGLQWKHVXUURXQGLQJYLOODJHV7KHORQJHVWGLVWDQFHIURPYLOODJHWR KRVSLWDO ZDV NP ZLWK DOPRVW QR PRWRUL]HG WUDQVSRUWDWLRQ DYDLODEOH ,Q WKH
SRSXODWLRQ RI WKH %ZDPDQGD KHDOWK ]RQH WKHUH ZDV D OLPLWHG VRFLRHFRQRPLF YDULDWLRQ7KHOLWHUDF\UDWHDPRQJZRPHQZDVDQGRQO\DWWHQGHGSULPDU\
VFKRROIRUPRUHWKDQWZR\HDUV>@,QIDQWDQGFKLOGPRUWDOLW\UDWHZHUHHVWLPDWHG WREHDQGSHUEHWZHHQDQGZLWKPDODULDDQGDQHPLDEHLQJWKH PDLQFDXVHVRIGHDWK7KLVFRPSDUHGZHOOWRWKHUHVWRI'5&DWWKDWWLPH>@
)LJXUH0DSRIWKH'HPRFUDWLF5HSXEOLFRIWKH&RQJR'5&ZLWKWKH%ZDPDQGDVWXG\
VLWH
7RGD\'5&LVDPRQJWKHFRXQWULHVSHUIRUPLQJZRUVWDFFRUGLQJWRWKHFULWHULDRIWKH 81'3 +XPDQ 'HYHORSPHQW ,QGH[ ,Q WKH '5& UDQNHG RXW RI FRXQWULHV >@ 7KH GHPRJUDSKLF KHDOWK VXUYH\ '+6 GHVFULEHV eTXDWHXU SURYLQFH DV WKH SRRUHVW SURYLQFH ZLWKLQ '5& ZLWK RI WKH SRSXODWLRQ OLYLQJ EHORZWKHSRYHUW\OLQHRIGROODUDGD\7KHSUHGRPLQDQWOLYHOLKRRGDGDSWLRQVWLOO FRQVLVWV RI VXEVLVWHQFH IDUPLQJ ,Q PRVW RI WKH FRXQWU\ LQIUDVWUXFWXUH LV H[WUHPHO\
SRRUO\ GHYHORSHG WUDQVSRUW SULFHV KLJK DQG KHQFH IRRG PDUNHWV YHU\ SRRUO\
GHYHORSHG7KH\HVWLPDWHGRQHPHGLFDOGRFWRUSHULQKDELWDQWZKLFKLVDILIWK RIWKH:+2UHFRPPHQGDWLRQRIRQHSHULQKDELWDQWV>@%HWZHHQWKH'+6 DQGLQIDQWPRUWDOLW\UDWHVLQeTXDWHXUIHOOIURPWRSHUOLYH ELUWKV DQG XQGHUILYH PRUWDOLW\ UDWHV IHOO IURP WR SHU OLYH ELUWKV 'HVSLWHWKLVGHFUHDVHWKRVHHVWLPDWHVDUHKLJKHUWKDQWKHQDWLRQDODYHUDJHRI'5&,Q RIFKLOGUHQXQGHUWKHDJHRIILYHZHUHVWXQWHGVHYHUHO\ZDVWHG VHYHUHO\DQGZHUHXQGHUZHLJKWVHYHUHO\7KLVLVDQLPSURYHPHQWLQ DEVROXWHWHUPVFRPSDUHGWRDQGDOVRUHODWLYHWRWKHQDWLRQDODYHUDJHRI'5&LQ
>@7KHKHDOWK]RQHRI%ZDPDQGDKDGDSRSXODWLRQRILQ 7KHUH LV QR QHZHU GDWD RQ KHDOWK LQGLFDWRUV RI WKLV VSHFLILF KHDOWK ]RQH SXEOLFO\
DYDLODEOH:LWKDFRQWLQXHGDEVHQFHRIVXSSRUWE\WKH&RQJROHVHVWDWHKHDOWKVHUYLFHV DUHVWLOOUXQE\&',%ZDPDQGD>@:KLOHWKLV1*2KDGDFWLYLWLHVLQWKHDUHDVRI KHDOWK FRQVWUXFWLRQ HGXFDWLRQ GULQNLQJ ZDWHU DFFHVV SURGXFWLRQ DQG WUDGH GXULQJ WKHVWXG\SHULRGWKH\FXUUHQWO\KDGWROD\GRZQDOODFWLYLWLHVRWKHUWKDQKHDOWKFDUH
6LWH1HSDO
$FFRUGLQJWRWKH81'3+XPDQ'HYHORSPHQW,QGH[>@1HSDOZDVDPRQJ WKH FRXQWULHV ZLWK D ORZ KXPDQ GHYHORSPHQW UDQNLQJ RXW RI FRXQWULHV 1HSDOLVGLYLGHGLQWRWKUHHHFRORJLFDO]RQHVWKHPRXQWDLQVWKHKLOOVDQGWKHORZODQG SODLQV FDOOHG WHUDL )LJXUH (OHYDWLRQV LQ 1HSDO UDQJH IURP WR PHWHUV DERYH VHD OHYHO $GPLQLVWUDWLRQDO GLYLVLRQV LQFOXGH ILYH UHJLRQV ZLWK D WRWDO RI ]RQHV7KHDUHDRI%KDNWDSXULVRQHRIGLVWULFWVLQWKHFRXQWU\DQGLVGLYLGHGLQWR
VL[PXQLFLSDOLWLHVRQHRIZKLFKLV%KDNWDSXUPXQLFLSDOLW\,WOLHVLQWKHKLOOVDWDERXW P DERYH VHD OHYHO 7KH FOLPDWH LV VXEWURSLFDO ZLWK D SUHPRQVRRQ 0DUFK±
0D\ D PRQVRRQ -XQH±6HSWHPEHU D SRVWPRQVRRQ 2FWREHU±1RYHPEHU DQG D ZLQWHU VHDVRQ 'HFHPEHU±)HEUXDU\ 0RVW RI WKH DQQXDO SUHFLSLWDWLRQ RI PP RFFXUV GXULQJ WKH PRQVRRQ VHDVRQ 7KH SUHPRQVRRQ LV KRW DQG KXPLG DQG SRVW PRQVRRQDQGZLQWHUDUHXVXDOO\GU\DQGFROG
%KDNWDSXUPXQLFLSDOLW\OLHVLQWKH.DWKPDQGXYDOOH\WKHPRVWIHUWLOHDQGSRSXODWHG DUHD LQ1HSDO,Q LWKDG DSRSXODWLRQRISHRSOH >@,WLVRQH RIWKH PDLQWRXULVWDWWUDFWLRQVLQ1HSDORIIHULQJWUDGLWLRQDOWHPSOHVDQGEXLOGLQJVZKLFKDUH RQWKH81(6&2¶V:RUOG+HULWDJH/LVW7RXULVPDQGDJULFXOWXUHDUHWKHPDLQVRXUFHV RIOLYHOLKRRGLQWKLVSHULXUEDQFRPPXQLW\DQGWKHUHLVDOVRDFRQVLGHUDEOHUDQJHRI QRQDJULFXOWXUDOOLYHOLKRRGV7KHPDLQDJULFXOWXUDORXWSXWVDUHULFHZKHDWPDL]HDQG YHJHWDEOHV/LYHVWRFNDOVRSUHVHQWVDQLPSRUWDQWLQFRPHLQUXUDODUHDV3HRSOHXVXDOO\
FRQVXPH ORFDOO\ JURZQ IRRGV ZLWK YDULDWLRQ DQG DYDLODELOLW\ KHDYLO\ GHSHQGLQJ RQ WKHVHDVRQ+RZHYHU WKHUH LVH[WHQVLYHKRUWLFXOWXUDOSURGXFWLRQDQGIUHVK QXWULHQW GHQVHIRRGLVDYDLODEOH\HDUURXQGZKLOHSULFHVPD\UHIOHFWZKHWKHUFHUWDLQFURSVDUH LQ RU RXW RI VHDVRQ 7KH PDLQ GLHW LV GDO EKDW ZLWK ULFH DV D PDLQ VWDSOH VXSSOHPHQWHGZLWKYHJHWDEOHFXUULHVDQGSXOVHVRXSDQGHYHQWXDOO\GDLU\SURGXFWVRU PHDW $QLPDO VRXUFH IRRGV DUH FRQVXPHG E\ PRVW SHRSOH EXW UHVWULFWHG E\
DIIRUGDELOLW\,Q1HSDOWKHUHDUHVXEVWDQWLDOVRFLRFXOWXUDOGLYLGHVLQWKHSRSXODWLRQ JXLGHG E\ D FDVWH V\VWHP DQG VRFLRHFRQRPLF IRUFHV 7KHVH LPSDFW ERWK GLHWDU\
FRPSRVLWLRQDQGFKLOGIHHGLQJ
7KHQDWLRQDOOLWHUDF\UDWHZHUHHVWLPDWHGWREHIRUZRPHQDQGIRUPHQLQ
>@(VWLPDWHVIRU%KDNWDSXUGLVWULFWDUHDQGUHVSHFWLYHO\>@
,QIDQWDQGXQGHUILYHPRUWDOLW\UDWHVUHSRUWHGLQWKHODVW'+6ZHUHDQG GHDWKVSHUOLYHELUWKVUHVSHFWLYHO\ZLWKPDUNHGGLIIHUHQFHVZLWKLQWKHFRXQWU\
7KHPRVWFRPPRQGLVHDVHVFRQWULEXWLQJWRFKLOGPRUWDOLW\DQGPRUELGLW\ZHUHDFXWH UHVSLUDWRU\ LQIHFWLRQV DQG GLDUUKHD >@ 2Q D QDWLRQDO OHYHO RI WKH FKLOGUHQ XQGHU ILYH \HDUV RI DJH ZHUH VWXQWHG ZDVWHG DQG XQGHUZHLJKW LQ ZLWKDGHFUHDVLQJWUHQGVLQFHWKHODVW'+6LQDQG>@
)LJXUH0DSRI1HSDOZLWKHFRORJLFDO]RQHVDQGDGPLQLVWUDWLYHXQLWVDQGWKH%KDNWDSXU VWXG\VLWH
6WXG\GHVLJQV
6LWH7KH'HPRFUDWLF5HSXEOLFRIWKH&RQJR
7KH%ZDPDQGDVWXG\ZDVDSURVSHFWLYHFRKRUWVWXG\ZLWKDG\QDPLFSRSXODWLRQDV VWXG\ EDVH >@ FDUULHG RXW EHWZHHQ $XJXVW DQG 0DUFK 2XW RI YLOODJHV LQ WKH %ZDPDQGD KHDOWK ]RQH YLOODJHV ZHUH UDQGRPO\ VHOHFWHG IRU LQFOXVLRQ WR WKH VWXG\ IRXU IURP HDFK RI WKH IRXU VXEDUHDV'XULQJ D SUHOLPLQDU\
FHQVXVUROOHGRXWEHWZHHQ$XJXVWDQG6HSWHPEHUDOOFKLOGUHQXQGHUWKHDJHRI ILYH\HDUVDQGWKHLUPRWKHUVZHUHHQUROOHGLQWRWKHVWXG\LQWRWDOFKLOGUHQ,Q VL[VXUYH\URXQGVRQDYHUDJHHYHU\WKUHHPRQWKVWKRVHFKLOGUHQZHUHIROORZHGDQG FKLOGUHQ WKDW ZHUH ERUQ RU KDG PRYHG LQWR WKH DUHD ZHUH QHZO\ HQUROOHG 2YHU WKH ZKROHVWXG\SHULRGFKLOGUHQZHUHHQUROOHGLQWRWKHVWXG\VHH)LJXUH
)LJXUH6WXG\SURILOHRIWKHFRKRUWVWXG\LQ%ZDPDQGD'5&/)8 /RVWWRIROORZXS
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
LQWKHKHDOWKFHQWHUVDQGFKXUFKHV$VSHFLDOPRUWDOLW\VXUYH\ZDVFRQGXFWHGLQ$SULO WRUHFRUGDOOGHDWKVXSWRWKDWWLPHSRLQW
6LWH1HSDO
7KH (WLRORJ\ 5LVN )DFWRUV DQG ,QWHUDFWLRQV RI (QWHULF ,QIHFWLRQV DQG 0DOQXWULWLRQ DQG WKH &RQVHTXHQFHV IRU &KLOG +HDOWK DQG 'HYHORSPHQW 0$/(' VWXG\ ZDV D SURVSHFWLYHFRKRUWVWXG\ZLWKDFORVHGFRKRUWDVVWXG\EDVH>@,WZDVFRQGXFWHGLQ HLJKWFRXQWULHV%DQJODGHVK %UD]LO,QGLD 1HSDO 3DNLVWDQ 3HUX 6RXWK$IULFD DQG 7DQ]DQLD )RU RXU DQDO\VLV ZH XVHG GDWD IURP WKH 1HSDO VLWH RQO\ 'XULQJ WKH HQUROPHQWSHULRG-XQHWR)HEUXDU\GHOLYHULHVZHUHLGHQWLILHGLQWKH
%KDNWDSXUPXQLFLSDOLW\+RXVHKROGVLQZKLFKGHOLYHULHVRFFXUUHGZHUHVXEVHTXHQWO\
UDQGRPO\ VHOHFWHG IRU VWXG\ SDUWLFLSDWLRQ &RQVHQWLQJ KRXVHKROGV ZHUH VFUHHQHG DFFRUGLQJWRWKHIROORZLQJH[FOXVLRQFULWHULD7KHIDPLO\KDGSODQVWRPRYHRXWRI WKHFDWFKPHQWDUHDIRU!FRQVHFXWLYHGD\VGXULQJWKHILUVWPRQWKVRIIROORZXS 7KH PRWKHU ZDV \HDUV RI DJH 7KH PRWKHU KDG DQRWKHU FKLOG DOUHDG\
HQUROOHGLQWKH0$/('FRKRUWVWXG\7KHFKLOGZDVQRWDVLQJOHWRQLHWZLQV WULSOHWV 7KH LQIDQW KDG DQ\ RI WKH IROORZLQJ LQGLFDWLRQV RI VHULRXV GLVHDVH KRVSLWDOL]DWLRQ IRU VRPHWKLQJ RWKHU WKDQ D W\SLFDO KHDOWK\ ELUWK VHYHUH RU FKURQLF FRQGLWLRQ GLDJQRVHG E\ D PHGLFDO GRFWRU HJ QHRQDWDO GLVRUGHU UHQDO OLYHU OXQJ DQGRUKHDUWGLVHDVHFRQJHQLWDOFRQGLWLRQVRUHQWHURSDWKLHVGLDJQRVHGE\DPHGLFDO GRFWRU 7KHFKLOG¶V JXDUGLDQ IDLOHG WR SURYLGH VLJQHG LQIRUPHG FRQVHQW :HLJKWDWELUWKRUHQUROOPHQWZDVJUDP,QWRWDOPRWKHUFKLOGSDLUVZHUH HQUROOHGDQGIROORZHGIRUWZR\HDUV)LJXUH$QWKURSRPHWULFPHDVXUHPHQWVZHUH WDNHQPRQWKO\VWDUWLQJZLWKLQGD\VDIWHUGHOLYHU\XQWLOPRQWKVRIDJH'DWDRQ LOOQHVVHV GLHW SDWKRJHQ EXUGHQ JXW IXQFWLRQ PLFURQXWULHQW VWDWXV DQG FRJQLWLYH GHYHORSPHQWZHUHDOVRUHFRUGHGEXWQRWXVHGIRUWKLVWKHVLV
)LJXUH6WXG\SURILOHRIWKHFRKRUWVWXG\LQ%KDNWDSXU1HSDO
'DWDFOHDQLQJ
7KH SURFHVV RI GDWD FOHDQLQJ LQ WKH DQDO\VLV GDWDVHWV ZDV GRQH LQ OLQH ZLWK WKH GHVFULSWLRQ RI 9DQ GHQ %URHFN HW DO >@ 7KLV LQYROYHG DFWLYH VFUHHQLQJ EHIRUH DQDO\VLVRIDOOYDULDEOHVQHHGHGXVLQJDPRQJVWRWKHUVGHVFULSWLRQRIUDQJHVORJLFDO RUGHUHJLQFUHDVLQJDJHLQVXEVHTXHQWVXUYH\URXQGVDQGJUDSKLFDOSORWVLQFOXGLQJ VFDWWHUSORWVDQGKLVWRJUDPV
)RUDQWKURSRPHWULFDOGDWDKDUGFXWRIIVIRUSODXVLEOHYDOXHVRI=VFRUHVDFFRUGLQJWR WKH :+2 &KLOG *URZWK 6WDQGDUGV >@ ZHUH VHW WR DQG ! IRU DWWDLQHG = VFRUHV ZHLJKWIRUDJH ZHLJKWIRUOHQJWKKHLJKW OHQJWKKHLJKWIRUDJH PLGXSSHU DUP FLUFXPIHUHQFH DQG WR DQG ! IRU YHORFLW\ =VFRUHV ZHLJKW DQG OHQJWK YHORFLW\)RUYHORFLW\=VFRUHVZHFKRVHPRUHH[WUHPHFXWRIIVEHFDXVHWKHVSUHDG LV XVXDOO\ ZLGHU WKDQ LQ DWWDLQHG JURZWK PHDVXUHV HYHQ LQ WKH KHDOWK\ FKLOG >@
7KHUHDUHQRVWDQGDUGVRUUHIHUHQFHVIRUFKDQJHVLQ08$&DYDLODEOH7KHUHIRUHZH VHWYDOXHVRIFKDQJHVZLWKLQFPZLWKLQWKUHHPRQWKVWRPLVVLQJLIWKH\ZHUHLQ
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
\LHOGDQ\LPSODXVLEOHYDOXHV
6WDWLVWLFDOPHWKRGV
$ SODQ RI DQDO\VLV ZDV PDGH IRU HDFK SDSHU E\ WKH DXWKRU RI WKH WKHVLV LQ FROODERUDWLRQZLWKWKHFRDXWKRUVSULRUWRDQDO\VLV
%DVHOLQH FKDUDFWHULVWLFV ZHUH GHVFULEHG XVLQJ VXPPDU\ PHDVXUHV WRJHWKHU ZLWK PHDVXUHV RI GLVSHUVLRQ VXFK DV PHDQ ZLWK VWDQGDUG GHYLDWLRQ PHGLDQ ZLWK LQWHUTXDUWLOHUDQJHDQGSHUFHQWDJHDVDSSURSULDWH
=VFRUHV IRU DWWDLQHG JURZWK OHQJWKIRUDJH ZHLJKWIRUDJH ZHLJKWIRUOHQJWK DQG PLGXSSHUDUPFLUFXPIHUHQFHIRUDJHZHUHFDOFXODWHGDFFRUGLQJWRWKH:+2&KLOG
*URZWK6WDQGDUGVDQG>@6WXQWLQJZDVWLQJDQGXQGHUZHLJKWZHUH GHILQHG DV =VFRUH RI IRU OHQJWKIRUDJH ZHLJKWIRUDJH DQG ZHLJKWIRUOHQJWK UHVSHFWLYHO\0RGHUDWHIRUPVRIPDOQXWULWLRQZHUHVSHFLILHGDV=VFRUHVDQG!
DQGVHYHUHIRUPVDV*URZWKYHORFLW\=VFRUHVZHUHFDOFXODWHGDFFRUGLQJWRWKH :+2&KLOG*URZWK6WDQGDUGV>@,QJHQHUDOJURZWKYHORFLW\LVWKHFKDQJHRI YDOXHH[SUHVVHGLQXQLWVSHUWLPHSHULRG'XHWRDQRQQRUPDOGLVWULEXWLRQRIZHLJKW DQGKHLJKWLQGLYLGXDO=VFRUHVIRUZHLJKWDQGOHQJWKYHORFLW\ZHUHFDOFXODWHGDV
=VFRUH ቂ
ಾሺሻቃಽሺሻିଵ
ௌሺ௧ሻሺ௧ሻ
IRU=VFRUHVEHWZHHQDQGZKHUH\LVWKHUDZYDOXH/WWKHWDEXODWHGILWWHGYDOXH RI%R[&R[0WWKHPHGLDQDQG6WWKHFRHIILFLHQWRIYDULDWLRQDWYLVLWWLPHW$V FKDQJHV LQ ZHLJKW FDQ WDNH QHJDWLYH YDOXHVD FRQVWDQW į LV DGGHG IRU D VKLIW WR D SRVLWLYHYDOXH
:HLJKWYHORFLW\=VFRUHV ቂ
ሺశഃሻ
ಾሺሻቃಽሺሻିଵ
ௌሺ௧ሻሺ௧ሻ
,IWKH=VFRUHZDV!WKHIRUPXODXVHGZDV͵ ሺ௬ିௌଷ௦ௌଶଷ௦ሻDQG LIWKH=VFRUHZDVZHXVHGെ͵ ሺ௬ିௌଷ
ௌଶଷሻ
DOZD\VDGGLQJWKHFRQVWDQWįIRUZHLJKWYHORFLW\ZKHUH 6'SRV ሺሻሾͳ ሺሻ כ ሺሻ כ ሺ͵ሻሿଵൗሺ௧ሻ
6'QHJ ሺሻሾͳ ሺሻ כ ሺሻ כ ሺെ͵ሻሿଵൗሺ௧ሻ
6'SRV ሺሻሾͳ ሺሻ כ ሺሻ כ ሺ͵ሻሿଵൗሺ௧ሻെሺሻሾͳ ሺሻ כ ሺሻ כ ሺʹሻሿଵൗሺ௧ሻ 6'QHJ ሺሻሾͳ ሺሻ כ ሺሻ כ ሺെʹሻሿଵൗሺ௧ሻെሺሻሾͳ ሺሻ כ ሺሻ כ ሺെ͵ሻሿଵൗሺ௧ሻ
,IDJHVDWWKHEHJLQQLQJDQGWKHHQGRIWKHLQWHUYDOGLGQRWPDWFKWKRVHLQWKH:+2
*URZWK6WDQGDUGVZHXVHGWKHUHIHUHQFHYDOXHIRUWKHQH[WDSSURSULDWHDJH,Q3DSHU WKHH[WUHPHO\WKRURXJKLPSOHPHQWDWLRQDOORZHGIRUDQDUURZWDUJHWDJHGHILQLWLRQ ZLWKRQO\GD\VGHYLDWLRQIURPWDUJHWDJHV,Q3DSHUDQGZHGLGQRWDSSO\VXFK DUHVWULFWLRQ
:H FDOFXODWHG FKDQJHV LQ DEVROXWH 08$& DQG 08$& =VFRUHV¨08$& DQG
¨08$&= UHVSHFWLYHO\E\ GLYLGLQJ WKH GLIIHUHQFH LQ FP RU =VFRUHV EHWZHHQ WZR WLPHSRLQWVE\WKHH[DFWWLPHLQWHUYDODQGPXOWLSO\LQJLWE\WKUHHWRDUULYHDWH[DFW PRQWKJURZWKLQFUHPHQWV
'LIIHUHQFHVLQPHDQYHORFLW\=VFRUHVDFFRUGLQJWRVH[ZHUHDQDO\]HGZLWKKHOSRIDQ XQSDLUHGWWHVWDQGGLIIHUHQFHVDFFRUGLQJWRDJHJURXSVZLWKDRQHZD\$129$:H
HVWLPDWHG DVVRFLDWLRQV RI ZHLJKW DQG OHQJWK YHORFLW\ =VFRUHV ZLWK GLVWDQFHV WR GLIIHUHQWVRXUFHVRIIRRGDQGKHDOWKFDUHGLVWDQFHWRKRVSLWDOKHDOWKFHQWHUPDUNHW ILVKLQJ JURXQGV DQG IRUHVW DQG YLOODJH VL]H ZLWK 3HDUVRQ SURGXFWPRPHQW FRUUHODWLRQ FRHIILFLHQWV )RU 3DSHU ZH EXLOW PXOWLSOH PL[HG HIIHFW UHJUHVVLRQ PRGHOVWRDFFRXQWIRUWKHGHSHQGHQF\RIREVHUYDWLRQVLQVXEVHTXHQWVXUYH\URXQGV :H FKRVH DQ XQVWUXFWXUHG FRUUHODWLRQVWUXFWXUH EHFDXVH LW LVWKHPRVWFRQVHUYDWLYH SODFLQJQRFRQVWUDLQWVRQWKHIRUPRIUHVLGXDOFRUUHODWLRQ:HLJKWDQGOHQJWKYHORFLW\
=VFRUHV ZHUH GHILQHG DV WKH GHSHQGHQW YDULDEOHV 7KH FKRLFH RI LQGHSHQGHQW YDULDEOHV IRU PRGHO LQFOXVLRQ ZDV JXLGHG E\ WKH SURFHVV RI SXUSRVHIXO YDULDEOH VHOHFWLRQ GHVFULEHGLQ +RVPHU HWDO >@ *HRJUDSKLFDOGHWHUPLQDQWVGLVWDQFHV WR VRXUFHV RI IRRG DQG KHDOWK FDUH DQG VHDVRQ ZHUH WHVWHG LQ ELYDULDWH UHJUHVVLRQ DQDO\VHVDQGWDNHQLQWRWKHPRGHOLIWKH\ZHUHVLJQLILFDQWRQDSYDOXHOHYHORI 2WKHU LQGHSHQGHQW YDULDEOHV DJH VH[ ELUWKUDQN PRWKHU¶V DJH DQG EUHDVWIHHGLQJ VWDWXV ZHUH FKRVHQ RQ WKH EDVLV RI WKHLU FOLQLFDO UHOHYDQFH DQG DFFHVVLELOLW\ LQ WKH GDWDVHW
$JH DW GHDWK ZDV GHVFULEHG XVLQJ D .DSODQ0HLHU VXUYLYDO FXUYH ZLWK FRQILGHQFH LQWHUYDO &, *HQHUDOL]HG HVWLPDWLQJ HTXDWLRQ *(( PRGHOV ZLWK D ORJ OLQN LQIRUPHG WKH PRUWDOLW\ ULVN ZLWKLQ WKH QH[W WKUHH PRQWKV VHSDUDWHO\ IRU HDFK YHORFLW\LQGH[:9=/9=¨08$&DQG¨08$&=$QDXWRUHJUHVVLYHFRUUHODWLRQV VWUXFWXUHZDVFKRVHQZKLFKDVVXPHVGHFUHDVLQJUHVLGXDOFRUUHODWLRQZLWKLQFUHDVLQJ WLPH EHWZHHQ PHDVXUHPHQWV 7KLV DVVXPSWLRQ ZDV DOVR FRQILUPHG ZLWK WKH TXDVL OLNHOLKRRGXQGHUWKHLQGHSHQGHQFHPRGHOFULWHULRQ4,&FRPPDQGLQWKHVWDWLVWLFDO VRIWZDUH6WDWD
)RU3DSHUZHEXLOWVLPSOHOLQHDUDQGORJLVWLFUHJUHVVLRQPRGHOVZLWK:$=:/=
/$=RUEHLQJZDVWHGVWXQWHGRUXQGHUZHLJKWDWPRQWKVDVRXWFRPHVUHVSHFWLYHO\
:HLJKWDQGOHQJWKYHORFLWLHVZHUHFDOFXODWHGIRUWKHIROORZLQJSHULRGV±±±
±±DQG±PRQWKV=VFRUHVIRUWKHVHSHULRGVZHUHHQWHUHGVHSDUDWHO\DV SUHGLFWRUVLQWRWKHUHJUHVVLRQPRGHOV2WKHUSUHGLFWRUVWHVWHGRQHE\RQHZHUH:$=
:/= RU /$= DW RU PRQWKV )RU VHYHQ FKLOGUHQ ELUWKZHLJKW ZDV QRW DYDLODEOH )RU DQ DSSUR[LPDWLRQ RI WKHVH ZH EXLOW D UHJUHVVLRQ PRGHO ZLWK WKH
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
7KHEDODQFHEHWZHHQVHQVLWLYLW\DQGVSHFLILFLW\WRSUHGLFWFKLOGGHDWK3DSHUDQG QXWULWLRQDO VWDWXV DW WZR \HDUV 3DSHU EHWZHHQ GLIIHUHQW WKUHVKROG OHYHOV ZDV LOOXVWUDWHG E\ UHFHLYHU RSHUDWLQJ FKDUDFWHULVWLF 52& FXUYHV :H FDOFXODWHG DUHDV XQGHU WKH 52& FXUYH $852& WR TXDQWLI\ WKH GLVFULPLQDWLYH DFFXUDF\ RI WKH GLIIHUHQW JURZWK PHDVXUHV 7R IRUPDOO\ FRPSDUH WKH $852& YDOXHV ZH XVHG WKH URFFRPSIXQFWLRQLQ6WDWDZKLFKLVEDVHGRQWKHDOJRULWKPVXJJHVWHGE\ 'HORQJHW DO>@
(WKLFV
)RUWKH%ZDPDQGDVWXG\HWKLFDODSSURYDOZDVREWDLQHGIURPWKH7URSLFDO&KLOGFDUH +HDOWK:RUNLQJ*URXSDWWKH8QLYHUVLW\RI/HXYHQ>@)RUDOOVHFRQGDU\DQDO\VHV RQ WKH %ZDPDQGD GDWD LQ WKLV WKHVLV HWKLFDO DSSURYDO ZDV JUDQWHG E\ WKH (WKLFDO
&RPPLWWHHDWWKH8QLYHUVLW\RI.LQVKDVDDSSURYDOQXPEHU(63&(
$OO VLWHV RI WKH 0$/(' VWXG\ REWDLQHG HWKLFDO DSSURYDO IURP DSSURSULDWH LQVWLWXWLRQV,Q1HSDOHWKLFDODSSURYDOZDVREWDLQHGIURPWKH1HSDO+HDOWK5HVHDUFK
&RXQFLODQGWKH:DOWHU5HHG,QVWLWXWHRI5HVHDUFK:5$,586$7KHVXEDQDO\VLV IRU3DSHUZDVDSSURYHGE\WKH&HQWUDO%RDUGRIWKH0$/('VWXG\DQGWKHORFDO VWHHULQJ FRPPLWWHH %HFDXVH WKH 0$/(' KDG DSSURYDOV IURP VHYHUDO LQVWLWXWLRQV WKH LQVWLWXWLRQDO HWKLFDO UHYLHZ ERDUG DW WKH 8QLYHUVLW\ RI %HUJHQ GLG QRW ILQG LW QHFHVVDU\WRKDYHWKLVVWXG\UHYLHZHGE\D1RUZHJLDQFRPPLWWHH
,Q ERWK VWXGLHV VLJQHG LQIRUPHG FRQVHQW ZDV JLYHQ E\ WKH JXDUGLDQ RI HDFK SDUWLFLSDQW,QFDVHRILOOLWHUDF\RUDOFRQVHQWZDVJLYHQLQWKH'5&DQGDWKXPESULQW LQ1HSDO
)XQGLQJERGLHVGLGQRWKDYHDQ\LQIOXHQFHRQWKHVWXG\GHVLJQLPSOHPHQWDWLRQDQG DQDO\VLV RI WKH GDWD 7KH DXWKRU RI WKLV WKHVLV DQG DOO FRDXWKRUV RI WKH SDSHUV RQ ZKLFKWKLVWKHVLVLVEDVHGKDYHUHSRUWHGQRFRQIOLFWVRILQWHUHVW
5HVXOWV
,Q WRWDO FKLOGUHQ ZHUH HQUROOHG LQWR WKH %ZDPDQGD VWXG\ GXULQJ WKH VWXG\
SHULRG3DSHUDQG6WXG\SDUWLFLSDQWVZHUHFRPSULVHGRIPDOHDQG ZHUH IURPWKHHWKQLF JURXS1JEDND 2IDOOFKLOGUHQ FKLOGUHQZHUH XQGHU WKH DJHRIWZR\HDUVDWWZRRUPRUHWLPHSRLQWVDQGWKHUHIRUHHOLJLEOHIRUJURZWKYHORFLW\
FDOFXODWLRQ
7KHVWXG\VDPSOHRIWKH0$/('VWXG\3DSHUFRPSULVHGFKLOGUHQRIZKLFK ZHUH PDOH DQG IURP WKH 1HZDU FDVWH JURXS $OO FKLOGUHQ ZHUH HQUROOHG LQWRWKHVWXG\ZLWKLQGD\VRIELUWKDQGIROORZHGPRQWKO\XQWLOPRQWKVRIDJH
3DSHU
*URZWKYHORFLW\=VFRUHVLQWKH'5&FRKRUWZHUHORZHVWLQWKHILUVWPRQWKVRIOLIH DQG JUDGXDOO\LQFUHDVHG XSWRWZR \HDUVRIDJH VHH 3DSHU 7DEOH'HVSLWH WKLV LQFUHDVHYHORFLW\=VFRUHVUHPDLQHGXQGHUZKDWLVH[SHFWHGLQKHDOWK\FKLOGUHQ=
VFRUH RI DQG DFFXPXODWHG UHVXOWLQJ LQ D IXUWKHU GHWHULRUDWLRQ LQ PHDQ DWWDLQHG JURZWKZLWKDJHIURPDQDOUHDG\ORZVWDWXVDWDJHV±PRQWKV
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
)LJXUH0HDQDQG&,RIYDULRXVJURZWKLQGLFDWRUVDFFRUGLQJWRWKHWLPHRIWKH\HDU 3DQHO $ 0HDQ JURZWK YHORFLW\ =VFRUHV ZLWK &, IRU ZHLJKW JUHHQ VROLG OLQH DQG OHQJWKEOXHGDVKHGOLQHDFFRUGLQJWRGDWHDWPLGSRLQWRIDVVHVVPHQWSHULRG3DQHO%0HDQ DWWDLQHGJURZWK=VFRUHZLWK&,IRUZHLJKWIRUOHQJWKUHGGLDPRQGVZHLJKWIRUDJH EOXH FLUFOHV PLGXSSHUDUPFLUFXPIHUHQFHIRUDJH SXUSOH VTXDUHV DQG OHQJWKIRUDJH JUHHQWULDQJOHV
3DSHU
'XULQJWKHVWXG\SHULRGFKLOGUHQLQWKH'5&FRKRUWGLHGRIZKRP ZHUH PDOH )LIW\ SHUFHQW RI WKH FKLOGUHQ GLHG EHWZHHQ WKH DJH RI DQG PRQWKV PHGLDQ PRQWKV 7KH ULVN RI GHDWK LQFUHDVHG E\ D IDFWRU RI IRU HYHU\ XQLW GHFUHDVHLQZHLJKWYHORFLW\XQGHUWKH=VFRUHRIDQGVLPLODUO\E\DIDFWRURIIRU OHQJWK YHORFLW\ $ ZHLJKW YHORFLW\ =VFRUH RI ZDV DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK D WLPHV KLJKHUULVNRIG\LQJZLWKLQWKHQH[WWKUHHPRQWKV&,±7KHPRUWDOLW\
ULVNIRUDOHQJWKYHORFLW\=VFRUHRIZDVWLPHVKLJKHU&,±,ID 08$& =VFRUH GHFUHDVHG RYHU WKH PRQWK SHULRG IRU HDFK DGGLWLRQDO =VFRUH LQFUHDVHLQWKHGLIIHUHQFHWKHPRUWDOLW\ULVNLQFUHDVHGE\6LPLODUO\IRUHYHU\FP LQFUHDVHLQWKHGLIIHUHQFHRIDEVROXWH08$&ZLWKLQWKUHHPRQWKVWKHULVNRIGHDWK ZDVWLPHVKLJKHUVHH3DSHU7DEOH
7KH UHFHLYHU RSHUDWLQJ FKDUDFWHULVWLF 52& FXUYHV WR GHPRQVWUDWH WKH EDODQFH EHWZHHQVHQVLWLYLW\DQGVSHFLILFLW\WRSUHGLFWFKLOGGHDWKDWGLIIHUHQWWKUHVKROGOHYHOV DUH SUHVHQWHG LQ )LJXUH /HQJWK YHORFLW\ ZHLJKW YHORFLW\ DQG DEVROXWH 08$&
IHDWXUHG WKH ODUJHVW DUHDV XQGHU WKH FXUYH $852& ZLWK YDOXHV RI DQG UHVSHFWLYHO\:HLJKWDQGOHQJWKYHORFLW\=VFRUHVSHUIRUPHGVWDWLVWLFDOO\EHWWHU LQSUHGLFWLQJPRUWDOLW\WKDQWKHLUDWWDLQHGFRXQWHUSDUWV:$=$852&S DQG /$= $852& S $ ORQJLWXGLQDO DSSURDFK GLG QRW LPSURYH WKH SUHGLFWLYH DELOLWLHV RI 08$& =VFRUH DQG DEVROXWH 08$& ,I WKH FKLOGUHQ ZHUH DOUHDG\ VWXQWHG +$= DW WKH EHJLQQLQJ RI WKH DVVHVVPHQW SHULRG WKH $852&
LQFUHDVHG WR IRU OHQJWK YHORFLW\ ,I DQDO\VLV ZDV UHVWULFWHG WR ZDVWHG FKLOGUHQ :+=WKH$852&IRUZHLJKWYHORFLW\ZDVDQGIRUDEVROXWH08$&LWZDV 0RUWDOLW\SUHGLFWLQJDELOLWLHVGLGQRWGLIIHUDFFRUGLQJWRWKHDJHFDWHJRULHV±
±DQG±PRQWKV
)LJXUH5HFHLYHU2SHUDWLQJ&KDUDFWHULVWLF52&FXUYHVLQGLFDWLQJWKH DELOLW\WRSUHGLFW GHDWK ZLWKLQ WKUHH PRQWKV LQ FKLOGUHQ DJHG PRQWKV LQFOXGHG LQ WKH FRKRUW VWXG\ LQ
%ZDPDQGD '5& IRU $ ZHLJKW YHORFLW\ =VFRUHV :9= DQG ZHLJKWIRUDJH =VFRUH :$=%OHQJWKYHORFLW\=VFRUHV/9=DQGOHQJWKIRUDJH=VFRUH/$=&FKDQJHVLQ PLGXSSHUDUPFLUFXPIHUHQFHIRUDJH =VFRUH ¨08$&= DQG PLGXSSHUDUP FLUFXPIHUHQFHIRUDJH =VFRUH08$&= ' FKDQJHV LQ DEVROXWH PLGXSSHUDUP FLUFXPIHUHQFH¨DEV08$&DQGDEVROXWHPLGXSSHUDUPFLUFXPIHUHQFHDEV08$&$UHDV XQGHUWKHFXUYH$852&YDOXHVRIWKHLQGLYLGXDOSUHGLFWRUVDUHJLYHQLQWKHOHJHQGRIHDFK SORW
3DSHU
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
6LPSOHOLQHDUDQGORJLVWLFUHJUHVVLRQPRGHOVVKRZHGWKDWJURZWKGXULQJPRVWSHULRGV LQ LQIDQF\ GHOLQHDWHG E\ WKH GLIIHUHQW DQWKURSRPHWULF LQGLFDWRUV VLJQLILFDQWO\
SUHGLFWHG JURZWK DW DJH WZR \HDUV 7KH KLJKHVW YDOXHV IRU WKH DUHD XQGHU WKH 52&
FXUYHV $852& ZHUH REVHUYHG IRU LQGLFDWRUV RI DWWDLQHG JURZWK DW PRQWKV
$852&RIZHLJKWDQGOHQJWKYHORFLW\ZHUHVRPHZKDWORZHU3DSHU7DEOH,,,,, DQG,9
)RU WKLV WKHVLV ZH H[WHQGHG WKH DQDO\VLV RI 3DSHU E\ IRUPDOO\ FRPSDULQJ WKH DWWDLQHG JURZWK LQGLFDWRUV DQG WKH JURZWK YHORFLW\ LQGLFDWRUV ZLWK WKH KLJKHVW
$852&:/=DWPRQWKVYV:9=±PRQWKV/$=DWPRQWKVYV/9=±
PRQWKV:$=DWPRQWKVYV:9=±PRQWKV:HXVHGWKHURFFRPSIXQFWLRQLQ 6WDWD DV GHVFULEHG IRU 3DSHU $OO FRPSDULVRQV VKRZHG WKDW WKH DWWDLQHG LQGLFDWRU ZDV VLJQLILFDQWO\ EHWWHU WR SUHGLFW ZDVWLQJ S VWXQWLQJ S DQG XQGHUZHLJKWS UHVSHFWLYHO\
)LJXUH 0HDQ =VFRUHV ZLWK &, RYHU WLPH IURP DJH PRQWKV DFFRUGLQJ WR XQGHUZHLJKWDWPRQWKV\HV UHGFLUFOHVQR EODFNWULDQJOHVIRU$ZHLJKWYHORFLW\DQG
% ZHLJKWIRUDJH RU DFFRUGLQJ WR VWXQWLQJ DW PRQWKV IRU & OHQJWK YHORFLW\ DQG ' OHQJWKIRUDJHRIFKLOGUHQHQUROOHGLQWKH0$/('VWXG\$OOYHORFLW\=VFRUHVXVHD PRQWKLQFUHPHQWDQGDUHSORWWHGDWWKHEHJLQQLQJRIWKHJURZWKSHULRG
'LVFXVVLRQ
,QWKLVWKHVLVSDWWHUQVRIJURZWKYHORFLW\DFFRUGLQJWRVHDVRQDQGLWVDELOLW\WRSUHGLFW PRUWDOLW\ DQG PRUELGLW\ KDYH EHHQ GHVFULEHG 7KLV GLVFXVVLRQ ZLOO FRQVLGHU PHWKRGRORJLFDODVSHFWVRIWKLVWKHVLVDQGGLVFXVVLWVPDLQILQGLQJVLQWKHOLJKWRIWKH FXUUHQWVFLHQWLILFOLWHUDWXUH
'LVFXVVLRQRIWKHPHWKRGV 6WXG\GHVLJQ
)RUWKHFDOFXODWLRQRIJURZWKYHORFLW\WZRRUPRUHDQWKURSRPHWULFPHDVXUHPHQWVDQG WKHUHIRUHVWXGLHVZLWKIROORZXSRIFKLOGUHQRYHUWLPHDUHQHHGHG$FRKRUWVWXG\ZDV GHHPHG VXLWDEOH IRU WKH VWXG\ REMHFWLYHV 'DWD IRU WKLV WKHVLV ZHUH WDNHQ IURP WZR VWXGLHV ERWK RI ZKLFK ZHUH SURVSHFWLYH FRKRUW VWXGLHV UHFRUGLQJ WKH UHDO WLPH H[SHULHQFHZLWKSRVLWLYHHWLRORJLFWLPHDQGLQGLYLGXDOIROORZXS>@
%LDV
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
6HOHFWLRQELDV
6HOHFWLRQELDVUHVXOWVIURPHUURQHRXVSURFHGXUHVWRVHOHFWSDUWLFLSDQWVLQWRWKHVWXG\
RULQDGLIIHUHQWLDOORVVWRIROORZXSRISDUWLFLSDQWVRYHUWKHVWXG\SHULRG>@
%RWK RXU VWXGLHV ZHUH FRPPXQLW\EDVHG DQG XVHG D VWDWLVWLFDO VDPSOLQJ PHWKRG
>@ ,Q %ZDPDQGD D RQHVWDJH VWUDWLILHG FOXVWHU VDPSOLQJ ZDV SHUIRUPHG $OO YLOODJHVLQWKHDGPLQLVWUDWLYHDUHDRI%ZDPDQGDZHUHGLYLGHGLQWRIRXUFOXVWHUV2XW RI HDFK FOXVWHU IRXU YLOODJHV ZHUH UDQGRPO\ VDPSOHG 6XEVHTXHQWO\ DOO FKLOGUHQ LQ WKHVH YLOODJHV ZHUH HQUROOHG LQWR WKH VWXG\ ,W LV QRW GRFXPHQWHG KRZ PDQ\
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
(' VWXG\ ,Q DGGLWLRQ SDUHQWV RI RXW RI FKLOGUHQ UHIXVHG WR JLYH LQIRUPHG FRQVHQW$JDLQLIWKH\GLIIHUHGIURPWKHVWXG\SDUWLFLSDQWVLQDZD\WKDWZLOOGLVWRUW WKH DVVRFLDWLRQ RI H[SRVXUH DQG RXWFRPH WKLV FRXOG KDYH LQWURGXFHG ELDV ,Q ERWK VWXGLHVWKHORVWWRIROORZXSUDWHZDVYHU\ORZDURXQGDWWKHHQGLQERWKVWXGLHV 6RPHDXWKRUVXJJHVWWKDWDWWULWLRQUDWHLQWURGXFHVOLWWOHELDV>@
,QIRUPDWLRQELDV
,QIRUPDWLRQ ELDV UHVXOWV IURP GLIIHUHQWLDO PHDVXUHPHQW GRFXPHQWDWLRQ RU FODVVLILFDWLRQRIGDWDEHWZHHQFRPSDULVRQJURXSV,QIRUPDWLRQELDVFDQRFFXUGXHWR SUREOHPV UHFDOOLQJ WKH LQIRUPDWLRQ VRFLDO GHVLUDELOLW\ VXERSWLPDO PHDVXUHPHQW HTXLSPHQW RU PHDVXUHU¶V SHUIRUPDQFH LQDGHTXDWH SKUDVLQJ RI TXHVWLRQV RU DQVZHU
SRVVLELOLWLHV>@,QRXUVWXGLHVYDULDEOHVFRXOGKDYHEHHQPDLQO\DIIHFWHGE\UHFDOO ELDVDQGPHDVXUHPHQWHUURU
7KH FODVVLILFDWLRQ RI VHDVRQ LQWR SUH DQG SRVWKDUYHVW IRU 3DSHU ZDV EDVHG RQ UHFDOOLQJ IRRG LWHPV KDUYHVWHG LQ WKH SDVW WZR PRQWKV 2XU VWXG\ SRSXODWLRQ LQ
%ZDPDQGD PDLQO\ FRQVLVWHG RI VXEVLVWHQFH IDUPHUV +DUYHVW LV DQ DQQXDOO\
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
5HWULHYDORIDFFXUDWHDJHKDVEHHQSURYHQGLIILFXOWLQORZUHVRXUFHVHWWLQJV>@
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
ELDV LI DJH RI PRUH FKLOGUHQ LQ RQH RI WKH FRPSDUHG JURXSV ZDV GRFXPHQWHG LQFRUUHFWO\
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³LQFHQWLYH´ WRUHSRUW VPDOOHUYDOXHV
&RQIRXQGLQJ
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