Executive Board Meeting
16 March 2011
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
26 TP US Euro area MPR 3/10
MPR 1/11 CF Feb 2011
IMF WEO update Jan 2011
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
26 TP US Euro area MPR 3/10
MPR 1/11 CF Feb 2011
IMF WEO update Jan 2011
Sources: IMF, Consensus Economics and Norges Bank
Growth projections 2011
Change from previous year. Per cent
Growth projections 2012
Change from previous year. Per cent
Facts about Japan
World’s third largest economy: 8.8 per cent of global GDP (market value)
Share of GDP in the worst affected areas: 6.2 per cent
Energy supply and infrastructure are affected
Nikkei stock index has fallen by approximately 16 per cent since the earthquake on 11 March
Damage resulting from 1995 Kobe earthquake estimated at around 2 per cent of BNP. Damage from Friday’s earthquake expected to come to 1–3 per cent of GDP
Trade with Japan in 2010 as a share of Norway’s imports and exports:
Total merchandise trade: 1.6 per cent
Traditional merchandise trade: 2.5 per cent
Sources: IMF, Ecowin, Nomura, Barclays and Statistics Norway
Yield spread over German 10-year government bonds
Percentage points. 1 July 2008 – 14 March 2011
0 2 4 6 8 10
0 2 4 6 8 10
Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11
Portugal Spain Ireland Greece Italy Belgium
Source: Bloomberg
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
2002 2005 2008 2011
Oil price Gas price
Petroleum price¹ ⁾
Sources: Thomson Reuters, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Commodity prices
Index. Week 1 2002 = 100. USD Jan 2002 – Mar 2011
Oil, gas and petroleum export prices 1)
USD/barrel. Jan 2002 – Feb 2011
1) Weighted average of export prices for oil and gas 2) The Economist commodity price index
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
2002 2005 2008 2011
Metals ² ⁾
Food² ⁾
Aluminium
Copper
Cotton
Inflation
12-month change. Per cent. January 2007 – February 2011
1)Source: Thomson Reuters
-4 0 4 8 12 16
-4 0 4 8 12 16
2007 2009 2011
China Brazil Russia
India, wholesale
-2 0 2 4 6
-2 0 2 4 6
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Euro area UK
Sweden
BRIC Euro area, UK and Sweden
1) India and UK to end of January
Actual and expected key rates 1)
Per cent. 1 January 2008 – 31 December 2014
2)Sources: Bloomberg and Norges Bank 1) Expected interest rates are based on Overnight Indexed Swap (OIS) rates
2) Daily figures from 1 January 2008 and quarterly figures as at 14 March 2011 3) EONIA in euro area
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
US UK
Euro area
21 October 2010
14 March 2011
Oil price and import-weighted exchange rate
Brent Blend, USD per barrel. Exchange rate (I-44)
1),
1 Jan 1995 = 100. 1 January 2008 – 14 March 2011
80 85 90 95 100 105 110 30
50 70 90 110 130 150
2008 2009 2010 2011
Brent Blend, left-hand scale I-44 (inverted), right-hand scale
Source: Bloomberg 1) A rising curve denotes a stronger krone exchange rate
CPI, CPI-ATE 1) and CPIXE 2)
12-month change. Per cent. January 2008 – December 2011
3)0 1 2 3 4 5 6
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
2008 2009 2010 2011
CPI-ATE CPIXE CPI
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank 1) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products
2) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding temporary changes in energy prices. Real time data. See Staff Memo 2008/1 and 2009/3 from Norges Bank for a description of the CPIXE
3) Projections from MPR 1/11 (broken lines)
Projections for CPI-ATE 1)
Fan chart for SAM
2)as at 16 March 2011. Four-quarter change Per cent. Q1 2010 – Q4 2011
0 1 2 3 4
0 1 2 3 4
Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11
MPR 3/10 MPR 1/11
SAM 16 March 2011
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
90%
70%
50%
30%
1) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products
2) System for Averaging Models. For more information about SAM and the projections see www.norges-bank.no
Projections for mainland GDP growth
Fan chart for SAM
1)as at 16 March 2011. Four-quarter change Per cent. 2010 Q1 – 2011 Q4
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11
MPR 3/10 MPR 1/11
SAM 16 March 2011
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
90%
70%
50%
30%
1) System for Averaging Models. For more information about SAM and the projections, see www.norges-bank.no
Production
Mainland GDP to end of 2011 Q4 and regional network to end of July 2011. Quarterly change. Seasonally adjusted. Per cent
-2 0 2 4
-2 0 2 4
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Regional network¹ ⁾ Mainland GDP² ⁾
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank’s regional network 1) Projections for January to June 2011
2) Projections for 2011 Q1 – 2011 Q4 from MPR 1/11
Growth in mainland GDP
Per cent. 2000 – 2014
-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Mainland GDP
Mainland GDP MPR 3/10 Mainland GDP MPR 1/11
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Norges Bank’s key policy rate
Per cent. 2008 Q1 – 2014 Q4
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Strategy interval MPR 1/11
MPR 3/10
Source: Norges Bank
