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EXECUTIVE BOARD MEETING

25 OCTOBER 2017

BASED ON INFORMATION IN THE PERIOD TO 23 OCTOBER 2017

(2)

Monetary policy report 3/17, overall picture

-1 0 1 2 3

-1 0 1 2 3

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

2 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2

-3 -2 -1 0 1 2

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

0 1 2 3 4

0 1 2 3 4

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

85 90 95 100 105 110

85 90 95 100 105 110

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Projected output gap Key policy rate

CPI-ATE Exchange rate index (I-44)

(3)

GDP growth for selected trading partners

3

Quarterly percentage change.

1)

2012 Q1 – 2017 Q2

1) Three-quarter moving average.

Source: Thomson Reuters

-1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5

-1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

US UK

Euro area Sweden

(4)

CPI for selected trading partners

4

Twelve-month percentage change. January 2012 – September 2017

-2 0 2 4 6

-2 0 2 4 6

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

US UK

Euro area Sweden

Source: Thomson Reuters

(5)

Expected policy rates

Policy rates and estimated forward rates. Percent.

1 January 2015 – 31 December 2020

Sources: Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank 5

-1 0 1 2 3

-1 0 1 2 3

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

US UK

Euro area Sweden

Expected 23 Oct Expected 15 Sep

(6)

Import-weighted exchange rate index (I-44)

6

1 January 2017 – 31 October 2017

Source: Norges Bank

Stronger NOK MPR 3/17

96

100

104

108

112 96

100

104

108

112

2015 2016 2017

I-44

Projections MPR 3/17

(7)

Three-month money market premium

7

Percentage points. 1 January 2015 – 31 December 2017

Source: Norges Bank

MPR 3/17

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1

2015 2016 2017 2018

Norwegian money market premium Projections MPR 3/17

(8)

Oil price

8

USD/barrel. January 2014 – December 2020

1

1) Futures prices (broken lines) are the averages of futures prices for the period

11 September – 15 September 2017 for MPR 3/17 and 17 October – 23 October for futures prices.

Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Spot price Futures prices

Futures prices MPR 3/17

(9)

Goods consumption index

9

Seasonally adjusted volume index. January 2015 – August 2017

Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

120 125 130 135 140

120 125 130 135 140

2015 2016 2017

(10)

Consumer confidence

10

Trend indicator for households.

Consumer confidence index. March 2007 – September 2017

Sources: Kantar TNS and Opinion

-30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50

-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Consumer confidence index (left-hand scale) Trend indicator (right-hand scale)

(11)

House prices

11

Percent. January 2013 – December 2017

Sources: Eiendomsverdi, Finn.no, NEF, Real Estate Norway, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

-1 0 1 2 3

-5 0 5 10 15

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Seasonally adjusted monthly change (r.h.s) Projections monthly change in MPR 3/17, (r.h.s) Projections twelve-month change in MPR 3/17 (l.h.s) Twelve-month change (l.h.s)

(12)

Credit demand

12

Demand from households

1

and non-financial enterprises

2

. Quarterly change.

3

2008 Q1 – 2017 Q4

1) Mortgages. 2) Total credit to non-financial enterprises.

3) 2/1 = Large/some increase, 0 = Approximately unchanged, -1/-2 = Some/large decrease.

Source: Norges Bank’s Survey of Bank Lending

-2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2

-2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Households Non-financial enterprises

Next quarter Next quarter

(13)

Approved housing starts

13

By gross floor area in 1000s of sqm. Seasonally adjusted.

January 2013 – September 2017

Source: Statistics Norway

150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550

150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Approved housing starts Trend

(14)

GDP for mainland Norway with forecasts from SAM 1)

14

Quarterly percentage change. Seasonally adjusted. 2014 Q1 –2017 Q4

2)

1) System for Averaging short-term Models. 2) Projections for 2017 Q3 and Q4 (broken lines).

Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

-0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

-0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

2014 2015 2016 2017

GDP mainland Norway MPR 3/17

SAM MPR 3/17 SAM 10 Oct

(15)

Fiscal policy

15

Change in structural deficit. Share of trend GDP for mainland Norway.

Percentage points. 2002 – 2020

Sources: Ministry of Finance and Norges Bank

-1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5

-1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5

2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020

Fiscal impulse

Average 2002-2017 MPR 3/17

(16)

Unemployment as a percentage of the labour force

16

LFS

1)

and NAV

2)

. Seasonally adjusted. January 2014 – December 2017

1) Labour Force Survey.

2) Registered unemployment.

Sources: Norwegian Labour and Welfare Administration (NAV), Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

2 3 4 5

2 3 4 5

2014 2015 2016 2017

LFS unemployment NAV unemployment Projections MPR 3/17

(17)

Employment and labour force

17

LFS

1)

. Seasonally adjusted. In thousands. January 2014 – July 2017

1) Labour Force Survey.

Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

2,600 2,650 2,700 2,750 2,800

2,600 2,650 2,700 2,750 2,800

2014 2015 2016 2017

Labour force Employment

(18)

CPI and CPI-ATE

Twelve-month percentage change. January 2012 – December 2017

0 1 2 3 4 5

0 1 2 3 4 5

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

CPI CPI-ATE

Projections MPR 3/17

Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank 18

(19)

CPI-ATE by supplier sector

Twelve-month percentage change. January 2012 – December 2017

-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Imported consumer goods

Domestically produced goods and services Projections MPR 3/17

Sources: Statistics Norway og Norges Bank 19

(20)

CPI-ATE with forecast from SAM 1)

20

Four-quarter percentage change. 2014 Q1 – 2018 Q1

1)

0 1 2 3 4

0 1 2 3 4

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

CPI-ATE MPR 3/17 SAM MPR 3/17 SAM 10 October

1) System for Averaging short-term Models. 2) Projections for 2017 Q3 - 2018 Q1 (broken lines).

Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

(21)

EXECUTIVE BOARD MEETING

25 OCTOBER 2017

BASED ON INFORMATION IN THE PERIOD TO 23 OCTOBER 2017

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