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Vodka Sales Topic: Time series analysis and prediction

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Case 8: Vodka Sales

© Jostein Lillestøl NHH, Bergen

Vodka Sales

Topic: Time series analysis and prediction

Context:

A wholesale dealer of liquor has on record the sales each month of a certain brand of vodka for the period of July 2001 - June 2004. The data is available in the file

Vodka_Sales.XLS in two columns: SALES (in litres) and MONTH (no.) Task:

1. Illustrate the sales in a time chart for this period. Comment on the main features?

2. Give a prognosis for the monthly sales for each month for the rest of year 2004.

3. Give a prognosis for the total sales for the rest of the year 2004.

4. Give your judgement on the uncertainty in each prognosis, if possible.

5. How about prognosis for 2005?

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