Energy: The Missing Link in Globalization

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Energy Research & Social Science

j o u r n a l h o m e p a g e :w w w . e l s e v i e r . c o m / l o c a t e / e r s s

Original research article

Energy: The missing link in globalization

Indra Overland

^a,∗,1

aNorwegianInstituteofInternationalAffairs,PB8159Dep.,0033Oslo,Norway

a r t i c l e i n f o

Articlehistory:

Received18August2015

Receivedinrevisedform21January2016 Accepted28January2016

Keywords:

Energy Globalization Measurement Methodology

a b s t r a c t

Energyresourcesaretransportedlongdistancesandcreatepowerfulinterlinkagesbetweencountries.

Energythuscontributestotheglobalizationoftheworld,buthasreceivedlittleattentionintheglob- alizationliterature.Thisarticlehypothesizesthatenergyglobalizationisgrowingandaccelerating.The hypothesisistestedbydevelopinganindextomeasurechangesintheextentofenergyglobalization duringthe20-yearperiodfrom1992to2011.Thefollowingsub-indicatorsareincludedintheindex:

numberofenergytraderelationships,averagedistanceofenergytraderelationships,andenergydepen- dencyofthecountriesintheworld.Thedevelopmentoftheindexencountersanumberofconceptualand methodologicalchallengesrelatedtoglobalization,which,itturnsout,havenotbeenaddressedproperly inthebroaderliterature.Clariﬁcationoftheseissuescanhelpimprovetheanalysisofglobalization.

1. Introduction

Duringmostofhumanexistence,peoplewouldgooutsidetheir house,tent,orcave;gathersomedeadbranchesorchopdowna tree;andthat wastheirsourceofenergy. Onlyduringthepast fewhundredyearshavegrowingnumbersofpeopleobtainedtheir energyfromfurtheraﬁeld,anditssupplyhasthusbecomeentan- gledinfarawaylocationsandevents.Thisisparticularlytrueofoil, butalsoofalltheotherenergytypesthatcanbemovedacrossbor- ders:coal,electricity,naturalgas,andnuclearfuel—allofwhichthis articledealswith.Theseenergyinterlinkagesareaformofglobal- izationthatcontributestoincreasinginteractionbetweendifferent partsoftheworld.

The Middle-East oil crises of 1973 and 1979 and the Russian–Ukrainiangascrisesof2006,2009,and2014illustratethe dependencyaspectofenergyglobalization[29,p.13].Hadimport- ingcountriessuchastheUnitedStatesandUkrainebeenenergy self-sufﬁcient,theseeventscouldnothaveoccurred.Ontheother hand,energyresourcesareunevenlydistributedandifallcoun- triesintheworldweretomakedowiththeirownresources,there wouldbeevenmoreenergypovertyintheworldthanthereisnow.

Currently,1.4billionpeoplearenotconnectedtoanelectricitygrid, and2.7billionpeoplerelyontraditionalbiomassforcooking,with

∗Correspondingauthorat:NorwegianInstituteofInternationalAffairs,PB8159 Dep.,0033Oslo,Norway.

E-mailaddress:ino@nupi.no

1 Spokespersonforprixindex.netpoliticalriskforecastingforworldoilmarkets.

theresultingfumescausinglarge-scalepulmonaryhealthproblems [34,p.1][37,p.153].

Theglobalizationliteraturecoversalargenumberofsub-topics, includingeconomics(e.g.,[20,26,28]),politics(e.g.,[39,6,7]),culture(e.g.,[8,57,23]),socialrelations(e.g.,[40]),technology(e.g., [41,25,74])andmigration(e.g.,[63]).However,energyisamissing link.Aseminalanalysisofover4000articlesaboutenergyiden- tiﬁed15mainenergytopicsand71sub-topics,butglobalization isnotamongthem([60,p.6],cf.[61]).Thisisalsoconﬁrmedbya seriesofsearchesintheThomsonReutersWebofSciencedatabase [64].AsshowninTable1,therearemanypublicationsonenergy andmanyonglobalization,buthardlyanytouchonbothenergy andglobalization.Noneareasystematicanalysisofenergyglob- alizationperse.Manyconcernirrelevanttopics,suchasnutrition ordentalcare,whileothersareonrelevantbutnarrowertopics:

theconsequencesofglobalizationfortheenergysectorinasingle energy-richcountryorregion(e.g.,[2,55,65]);energychallengesat thegloballevel,suchasclimatechangeorenergysecurity(e.g., [10]); ortheinternationalization of marketsfor speciﬁcenergy types(e.g.,[4,5]).Onlya singlepublicationis abouttheprocess ofglobalizationinand throughtheenergysectoritself[30],but itisactuallylargelydevotedtoenergysecurity,USinterestsand theriseofAsia.Asearchincludingrelatedtermssuchas“transna- tionalism”and“internationalism”,whichwereusedmorebefore

“globalization”cameintowidespreaduseinthe1970s,doesnot givedifferentresults.Neverhasasystematicanalysisprovidingan overallassessmentormeasurementofenergyglobalizationatthe globallevelbeenpublished.

Inaddition,anexaminationofthesixmaincompositeindices ofglobalizationﬁndsthatnoneincludeanenergysub-indicator.

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2016.01.009

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Table1

Bibliographicaldatabasesearch;titles,abstractsandkeywords;publishedbetween 1900and2015;limitedtosocialsciences[64].

Searchterms Hits

“Energy” 81332

“Globali*ation” 27957

“Energyandglobalization” 251

“Energyglobali*ation” 0

ThisincludestheKearneyForeignPolicyGlobalizationIndex[70], theKonjunkturforschungsstelle(KOF)Index[56,15,16],theCen- trefortheStudyofGlobalisationandRegionalisation(CSGR)Index [71,36,49],theMaastrichtGlobalizationIndex(MGI)[17,24],the NewGlobalizationIndex[76],andtheG-Index[75].Foranoverview oftheseindices,see[59].

AsYatchew[68,p.74]formulatedit,“thepursuitofenergyisa fundamentaldriverofhumanhistory”(cf.[62,p.65]).Energyunder- pinstheeconomicgrowthandmilitarymightofcountries[51,p.1].

Itisseenasapotentialdriverofinternationalconﬂict—overpoliti- calinﬂuenceinmajoroil-producingcountries,militarycontrolover transportchokepointsandrightstocontinentalshelves[48,p.1].

Oilcompaniesaresomeoftheworld’slargestmultinationalcorpo- rations.Thelargestinternationaloilcompaniestypicallyoperate inscoresofcountriesacrossallcontinents,withinvestmentsof tensofbillionsofUSDinseveralofthemandtensofthousandsof employeesspreadaroundtheworld(e.g.,[22,9]).

Energy must therefore be central to globalization, and its absencefromtheglobalizationliteratureisanimportantomission.

Itisdifﬁculttosaywhytherehasbeensolittleattentiontoenergy intheliterature.Perhapsmanyofthosewhohavestudiedglobal- izationseeenergyasasetofsimplecommoditiesandoverlookits crucialroleinthefunctioningofsocieties;andperhapsmanythose whohaveengagedinthestudyofenergy,manyofwhomhave apreferenceforharddata,haveassociatedtheglobalizationtopic withauthorssuchasRosenau[58]andseeitaswishy-washy.Inany case,thepurposeofthisarticleistocontributetoﬁllingthegapat threelevels:conceptually,empirically,andmethodologically.

2. Hypothesis

Oneofthefewworksthattouchesonthetopicofenergyglobal- izationisKeohaneandNye’s[38]bookPowerandInterdependence.

Thebackdropandinspirationfortheirbookwastheoilcrisisof 1973,whichwasprecipitatedbyincreasingimportsof oilfrom thePersianGulftoWesterncountries,whereprivatecarowner- shipwasontherise.SinceKeohaneand Nyewrotetheirbook, therehavebeenmanynewdevelopmentsthatmayhaveaccel- eratedenergyglobalization.One exampleisthebuildingofthe China–Turkmenistangaspipeline.ByconnectingTurkmenistanto China’sdomesticgrid,thispipelinemakesitpossibletotransport gas some 7000km from Turkmenistan to Shanghai [3]. Turk- menistanisalreadyconnected4000kmwestwardsviaRussiaand UkraineandtheEuropeanpipelinegrid,whichinturnextendsfrom FinlandinthenorthtocentralAlgeriainthesouth.Inparalleldevel- opments,theEUisworkingtodissolveoldnationalmonopoliesand toliberalize,andthusintegrate,theEuropeangasmarket;inter- connectorshavebeencreatedbetweenthevariousnationalgrids ofEuropeancountries[54,p.124],andregasiﬁcationterminalshave beenconstructedalongtheEuropeanseaboardtoreceiveliqueﬁed naturalgas(LNG)byshipfromotherpartsoftheworld(seeFig.1).

Suchdevelopmentscreatenewconnectionsbetweenthemarkets fornaturalgasindifferentpartsoftheworld.

Amorecomprehensiveoverviewofdevelopmentsthatpoint towardahypothesisofrisingglobalizationisprovidedinTable2.

TakingintoaccountthedevelopmentslistedinTable2,Ihypoth-

Fig.1.ThegrowingnumberofLNGterminalsinEurope.

esizethatenergyglobalizationisgrowingandaccelerating.This hypothesisisechoedbyGoldthauandBoersma[29,p.13]aswell as Harris [30,p. 272]: “Today... energy market globalization is unprecedentedinitspace,range,anddepth.”Onewayofassessing thehypothesisistocreateanindexofenergyglobalizationtomea- sureﬂowsofenergybetweendifferentcountriesandtrackchanges intheseﬂows.Therestofthisarticleisabouthowsuchanindexcan becomposedandtheinterestingconceptualandmethodological questionsthatitgivesriseto.

3. Deﬁningglobalization

Therearemanydefinitionsofglobalization.In 2006,AlRod- han[1]gathered114definitions,and morehavebeenaddedto theliteraturein subsequentyears.Ihave selectedfourtextsas thestartingpointforanenergy-specificdefinitionofglobalization.

Thetextswereselectedbecausetheyemphasizeinterconnected- ness,interdependence,andinterrelations,anditmakessenseto putsuchaspectsatthecenterofananalysisofhowenergycreates interlinkagesaroundtheworld.Inaddition,theyrepresentthefull breadthofthetopicscoveredbytheglobalizationliterature,includ- ingcriminality,culture,economy,ﬁnance,geography,politics,and spirituality.Thefourtextsdeﬁneglobalizationas:

“...thewidening, deepening and speeding up of worldwide interconnectednessinallaspectsofcontemporarysociallife, fromtheculturaltothecriminal,theﬁnancialtothespiritual...”

[73,p.2].

“...thegrowingeconomicinterdependenceofcountriesworld- widethroughtheincreasingvolumeandvarietyofcross-border transactionsingoodsandservicesandofinternationalcapital ﬂows...”[74,p.45].

“...theintensiﬁcationofeconomic,political,socialandcultural relationsacrossborders...”[31,p.1].

“...theintensiﬁcationofworldwidesocialrelationswhichlink distantlocalitiesinsuchawaythatlocalhappeningsareshaped byeventsoccurringmanymilesawayandviceversa...”[27,p.

64].

Drawing on these four general definitions of globalization, energyglobalizationcanbedefinedasthegrowinginterconnect- ednessoftheworld’senergysuppliesthroughthemovementof growingvolumesofenergyovergreaterdistancesacrossinterna- tionalborders.Thisdefinitionwillbeoperationalizedthroughthe selectionofsub-indicatorsfortheenergyglobalizationindexinthe followingsectionsofthearticle.

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Table2

Somefactorscontributingtoenergyglobalization,1995–2015.

Development Consequences

Growingenergyconsumptioninemergingeconomies > Makestheglobalconsumerpicturemorecomplexandmultipolar,lesscenteredontheWest Emerging/expandingpetroleum-producingregions > Makestheglobalproductionpicturemorecomplexandmultipolar(e.g.,theArctic,EastAfrica,

EastMediterranean,theRussianFarEastandBraziliandeepwater) Newnaturalgaspipelinesandinterconnectors > Expandsandconnectstheregionswithinwhichnaturalgasistraded Unconventionaloilandgastechnology > Increasesthenumberoflocationswhereoilandgasareextracted

IncreasedLNGcapacity > Makesitpossibletotradegasaroundtheworldratherthanonlywithinnationalandregional marketsconnectedbypipelines

Liberalizationoftradeinenergy-intensivecommodities > Liberalizationoftradeinenergy-intensivecommoditiessuchassteel,aluminumandcement leadstogreaterindirectcompetitionbetweencoal,hydropowerandnaturalgasmarkets aroundtheworld

Expandingregionalenergymarkets > Theareaswithinwhichelectricity,coalandﬁrewoodaretradedhaveexpanded geographically,promotedbyfree-tradeagreements,especiallyintheEU

Globalclimatepolicy > Manyactorsaimtocreateauniﬁedglobalframeworkforallenergyuse,promotingsome energytypesanddiscouragingothers

Growingnumberofelectricmachines > Electriccars,bicycles,gardentools,householdappliances,etc.,useelectricitythatcanbe generatedbymanydifferentprimaryenergysources(nuclearpower,naturalgas,coal,wind power,solarenergy),thusbringingtheseenergysourcesintocompetitionwitheachothervia theexpandingelectricitymarket

GrowingnumberofNGVs > Naturalgasvehicles(NGVs)leadtoincreasedcompetitionbetweenoilandnaturalgasinthe transportsector,thusconnectingoilandnaturalmarketswithdifferentgeographicalcoverage Globalizationofnewsﬂowsandpublicopinion > Affectspatternsofenergyuseacrossnationalbordersthroughattitudestowardnuclear

power,renewableenergy,diesel,sportsutilityvehicles,electriccars,windmills,etc.

4. Selectionofsub-indicatorsforenergyglobalizationindex

Fortheconstructionoftheindex,itisimportanttoﬁndindi- catorsthat:saysomethingmeaningfulaboutinternationalenergy relations;aredifferentfromeachother;andfor whichdataare available. The three sub-indicators selected according to these criteriaarenumberofenergytraderelationshipsintheworld;dis- tanceofenergytraderelationships;andenergydependency(see Table3).

Anenergy globalizationindexshouldcover themain energy typesthatcanbetransportedacrossborders:coal,electricity,naturalgas,nuclearfuel,andoiland oilproducts.Theidealwould betousedataontheactualphysicalflowsoftheseenergytypes, measuredinbarrelsofoilequivalent(boe)orBritishthermalunits (Btu).However,becausesuchdataeitherdonotexistorarevery difficulttoaccess,Iinsteadusefinancialtradedataasaproxy.Eco- nomicdataarethususedasthebasisfortheanalysisbecausethey areavailable.However,ratherthaneconomicsperse,theanaly- sisisabouttheenergyconnectionsbetweendifferentlocationsin theworld(geography)andbetweenstates(politicalscience).Inthe wordsofPasqualettiandBrown[19,p.122],“ifenergyandsociety arepartsofthesamecloth,geographyisthethreadthattiesthem together.”

Asthereisnoperfectwayofmeasuringdistanceforthepurposes ofanalyzingglobalization,thenumberofkilometersbetweencoun- triesthattradeenergyisusedasaproxy.Itwouldnotbepossible tousethenumberofkilometersbetweentheexactlocationsthat energyissentfromandtobecausesuchdataarenotgathered.And evenifthedatadidexist,theywouldnotgiveanentirelyaccurate picturesinceenergycantravelgreatdistanceswithinalargecoun-

trysuchastheUSAwithoutmuchchangeincontextorchanceof eventsalongtheway;ortravelonlyafewkilometersacrossabor- derbetweentwoverydifferentlocations,forexampleNorwayand Russia.Thereisalsoaninaccuracyinusingdistancebetweencoun- trieswhileignoringmovementofenergywithincountries,since somecountriessuchasIndiaorKenyahavefargreaterinternal variationthanothers.However,sincethedataareorganizedby countrythatisaweaknessthatwehavetolivewith.

Thehypotheticalexample inFig.2 illustrateshow thethree sub-indicatorsjointlymeasurethelevelofglobalization.Country Aexports2millionbarrelsperday(bpd)ofoiltocountryB.Then, countryBbecomespoorerwhilecountryCbecomesricher,sothat exportsfromcountryAtocountryBarereducedto1millionbpdper dayand,atthesametime,countryCstartsimporting1millionbpd.

Thesumofenergydependencyinthethreecountriescombinedis thesame,andthesameamountofoilcrossesinternationalborders thesamenumberoftimes;nonetheless,globalizationhasincreased becausethenumberofenergytraderelationshipshasgrown.

Inadditiontothethreesub-indicatorsselected,Ialsoconsidered includingthepercentageofenergyinvestmentthatcomesfrom abroad.Especiallyinthepetroleumsector,andincreasinglyalso inthenuclearandelectricitysectors,largecompaniesplayimpor- tanttrans-borderroles,andthisindicatorwouldhavebroughtout therolethatthesecompaniesplayintheenergysector.Formost countries,however,itisnotpossibletofindcountry-leveldatathat distinguishforeigndirectinvestment (FDI)in theenergysector fromotherFDI.Furthermore,althoughrelevant,thisisnotthemost importantpotentialsub-indicatoronenergyglobalization.Forthe purposesofthisarticle,theflowofenergyitselfismoreimportant thantheflowofinvestmentinenergy.

Table3

Sub-indicatorsselectedasproxiesforenergyglobalizationinindex.

Sub-indicator Rationale Source

A. Numberofenergytraderelationshipsintheworld Themoreothercountriesacountrytradesenergywith,the moredifferentplacesintheworlditisinterconnectedwith

ComtradeviaWITS[66]

B. Distanceinkilometersbetweencountriesthattradeenergy Thefurtherenergytravels,themoreplaces,events,and factorsitcaninteractwithalongtheway:wars,shipping costs,storms,pirates,etc.[44,p.106]

ComtradeviaWITS[66]

C. Energydependency(ratioofnetenergyimportsorexports todomesticenergyconsumption)

Themoredependentacountryisonimportedorexported energy,themoreconnecteditiswiththeworld

IEAviaWorldBank[67]

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Fig.2.Hypotheticalexampleofchangesinsub-indicators.

5. Temporalcut-offpoints

Forallthreeselectedsub-indicators,dataareavailablefromthe early1960s,andmyinitialintentionwastoextendtheindexbackto 1960inordertoprovidealong-termperspectiveonenergyglobal- ization.However,weaknessesinthedatamilitateagainstthis.The furtherbackintimeonegoes,themorecountriesforwhichdata aremissing.Onemightlimittheindextothosecountriesthathave reportedforallyears,butthiswouldleadtobias,astheindustri- alizedcountriesoftheOECDareheavilyoverrepresentedamong thisgroup.Oneofthemostinterestingaspectsofthedevelopment oftheglobalenergysectoristheriseofemergingeconomiesas consumersandimportersofenergy,andtheywould beleftout becausetheyhadlimitedcapacityforrecordingstatisticsduring theﬁrstyearsofthedataset.

Inaddition,thefurtherbackintimeonegoes,themoremisre- portingthereisamongthecountriesthatdidreport.Accordingto Melchior[46,p.5],thisleadstoanerrorofupto12%intermsoftrade volumeand35%intermsofnumberoftraderelationshipsinsome years.Somecountriesentirelyfailedtoreportduringsomeyearsof theﬁrstdecadesofthedata.Forexample,SaudiArabia,oneofthe world’slargestenergyexporters,didnotreportbetween1969and 1974.Suchlacunaemakethedataunreliableforthe1960s,1970s and1980s.

FurtherchallengesareposedbythedissolutionofCzechoslo- vakia,theSovietUnionandYugoslaviaaswellastheuniﬁcation ofEastandWestGermany.Ifatimeseriesspanningthoseevents wereused,itcouldhavemadeitdifﬁculttoknowhowtointer- prettheglobalizationdata.Withthebreakupofstates,integrated energysystems forsinglecountriesaredisrupted bythenewly erectedinternationalbordersofmultiplesuccessorstates.Inthe caseoftheSovietUnion,therewereasmanyas15successorstates.

Thisleadstoenergycrossingmoreinternationalborders,ahigher countofinternationalenergytraderelationshipsandanincrease inenergydependency.Forexample,thesameamountofoiltrans- portedannuallyfromthesameﬁeldinRussiathroughthesame pipelinetothesamereﬁneryinBelarusbeforeandafterthedis- solutionoftheSovietUnionwouldberegisteredbytheindexas increasedglobalization.Thequestioniswhetherthatwouldbecor- rect.Onemightarguethatitiscorrectbecauseglobalizationisnot onlyaboutphysicaldistancebutalsoaboutwhatmightbethought ofaspoliticaldistance.ThedissolutionoftheUSSRledtoamore complexworldwithalargernumberofdistinctpoliticalunits,and thus,thetotalamountofglobalizationincreased.

ThegrowingintegrationbetweentheEUmemberstatesraises theoppositequestion:althoughthecountriesinteractacrosstheir borderswithincreasingease,theyarealsolessseparatethanbefore.

DoestheworldbecomelessglobalizedduetoEUintegration?One couldemphasizethattheEUisnotacountrybutstillmanyseparate sovereignstates, andtherefore,thegreaterintegrationbetween them broughtabout by theEU should correctlybe countedas increasedglobalization.ButwhatiftheEUweretobetransformed intoafullyintegratedstate—shoulditscontributiontoglobaliza-

tionthensuddenlybecountedasnegative?Ortomaketheproblem starker,what ifthewholeworldbecamefullyintegratedunder aUNgovernment?Wouldthatmaketheworldlessglobalized?

Intuitivelyonemightarguethecontrary,thatitwouldbeahighly globalizedworld.

Ifonejuxtaposesstatedisintegrationandintegration,itisdif- ﬁculttomakethelogicsaddup.Ifthedissolutionof theSoviet Unionmeantmoreglobalizationaccordingtothelogicofpoliti- caldistance,thenaccordingtothesamelogictheintegrationof statesintheEUorotherregionalorganizationsshouldmeanless globalization.Thisparadoxmaybecausedbyanunderlyingcon- tradiction.Ontheonehand,statesareusedasproxiesfordifferent locationsontheplanet,andthus,sometimestheuseofstatesas theunitofanalysiscanleadtomisleadingresultsinsofarasoneis actuallyinterestedinlocationsandthedistancesbetweenthem.On theotherhand,stateboundariesandtheseparatenessofsovereign statesasindependentpoliticalentitiesarealsoarelevantfactorin theirownright,sotheyalsohavetoplayaroleintheanalysis.

Thiscontradictionandtheotherproblemswithdatadescribed abovearenoteasilyresolved,buttheyarepartlyobviatedbystart- ingthetimeseriesin1992.Bytheendofthatyear,theSovietUnion haddissolved,Germanyhadbeenreunited,andCzechoslovakiaand mostofYugoslaviahaddissolved.Withthedatasetstartingin1992, itisstillpossibletocapturethemanyinterestingdevelopments of the1990s and 2000sthat might contribute toglobalization, suchaslongerpipelines,intensiﬁedeffortsatmarketliberalization, thegrowthinLNGandtheriseoftheBRICsandotheremerging economies.

Afterthedataweretruncatedin1992,therewerestillsome countriesfor which data wereincomplete. Mostof these were microstates,whichweresimplyremovedfromthedataset.This leftadatasetof197countries,coveringthevastmajorityofthe planet’seconomy, population, and surface.However,data were stilllacking forafew majorcountriesfor occasionalyears after 1992—forexample,Russia,whichhappenstobetheworld’slargest energyexporter[53,p.6].Forthesecountries,itwasassumedthat nochangeoccurredintheyearswithmissingdata.

Thenextthreesectionsdiscussthesub-indicatorsseparately.

Eachofthemmakesacontributiontotheoverallpictureofenergy globalizationandraisesdifferentmethodologicalissues.

6. Sub-indicatorA:numberofenergytraderelationships Ifacountryengagesinboththesaleand purchaseofenergy withanothercountry,shouldthisbecountedasoneortwoenergy traderelationships?Forexample,ifonecountryexportscrudeoil toanothercountryandre-importsreﬁnedgasolinefromthesame country,thetwocountriesaremoredependentoneachotherthan ifthecountryhadonlyexportedcrudeoilandnotimportedany- thinginreturn.Ithereforecountaunidirectionalrelationshipas onerelationshipandatwo-wayrelationshipastwo.

For each unidirectional relationship, thedata are registered twiceinthestatistics,bytheexportingcountryandbytheimport-

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Fig.3.Sumofnumberofenergytradepartnersof197countries.

ingcountry.Often,thesedatadiverge(cf.[46,pp.4–5],[33]).Which oftheseshouldoneuse?Becauseimportingstateshaveaninterest inlevyingtariffsandinstoppingillegalgoods,Iassumethattheir statisticsaremorereliableandIthereforeusethem.Thus,iftwo countriesonlytradeoneway,itisregisteredasoneimportingrela- tionship;iftheytradebothwaysitisregisteredastwoimporting relationships.

Ialsodecidedtocounteachtradepartnershipasonerelation- shipregardlessofhowmanyenergytypesthetwocountriestraded.

Thiswaspartlybecauseitwaseasiertodowiththedatadown- loadedfromtheWITSwebsiteandpartlybecauseinaglobalization perspectiveitismoreimportanthowmanyothercountriesacoun- tryhasenergytraderelationshipswith,thanthespeciﬁctypesof energytraded.

Havingdecidedonthesebasicquestionsabouthowtointerpret thestatistics,Iturnedtoamorecomplexissue.Myinitialplanwas tosimplycountthechangeinthenumberofenergytradepart- nersovertime:thegreaterthenumberoftradepartners,themore globalizedtheworld.However,thisraisessomecomplexquestions, whichcanbeexempliﬁedwiththefollowinghypotheticalcases.If acountry’spopulationis10millionandithas100energytrade relationships,butthenthepopulationgrowsto11millionandthe numberofenergytraderelationshipsgrowsto110,isthecoun- trymoreglobalized?Asastate,ithasmoreenergytradepartners, butpercapita,thenumberisthesame.MostpeopleIpresented thisexampletoconcludedthattheindexshouldsimplymeasure globalizationrelativetocountries,notthesizeoftheirpopulation.

However,thisproblemcanalsobeconceptualizedwithadiffer- entexample.Ifcountryxhasapopulationof5millionandhas10 energytraderelationships,whilecountryyhasapopulationof1 billionandhas12energyrelationships,whichismoreglobalized?

Here,onemightbetemptedtoconcludethatcountryxismore globalizedthancountryy,butthenthelogicisinconsistentwith thatinthepreviousexample.

Iftheaimweretocomparethedegreeofenergyglobalization ofdifferentcountries,thiscouldbeanintractableproblem.How- ever,asthisstudyisinsteadaimedattrackingchangeintheworld asawholeovertime,thequestionisslightlylessproblematicand boilsdowntoa choicebetweenwhetheronewantstomeasure globalizationpercapita(orperUSDofincome);orglobalizationof theworldaswholewithoutregardtothenumberofpeoplewho inhabititorthesizeoftheworldeconomy.Acontrolquestionhere couldbewhetheroneconsidersmoreglobalizedaworldinhab- itedbyonemillionpeopleandwithfewinternationallinkagesless globalizedandaworldinhabitedbyonebillionpeopleandwith manyinternationallinkages.Myanswertothatquestionis“yes”, andIthereforeconcludethatforthepurposeofthisindex,Iam interestedintheglobalizationoftheworldaswholeratherthan percapita.

Thedevelopmentofsub-indicatorAfrom1992to2011isillus- tratedinFig.3.Itisworthnotingthatatitspeakin2010,itshows thattherewereover11000energytraderelationships,whichalso sayssomethingaboutthelargesizeof thedatasetusedforthis analysis.

7. Sub-indicatorB:averagedistanceofenergytrade relationships

The ideal sub-indicator for the index would have been the energyequivalentoftheaviationindustry’spassengermiles,i.e., thenumberofmilesoverwhicheachunitofenergytravels—what onemightcall“energymiles”.Thiswould,however,havedepended onhaving accessto dataonphysical volumes ofenergy ﬂows.

Becausesuchdataeitherdonot existorare toodifficulttoget holdofanditisnecessarytousetradedatainUSDinstead,energy milesisnotanoption.Ifonemultipliedthedistancesthatenergy ismovedbytheavailabletradedata,variationsinenergyprices betweendifferentlocationsandovertimewouldseriouslydistort thecalculations.Thepricesofnaturalgas,coalandelectricityare particularlypronetogeographicalvariation,whilethepriceofoil isparticularlypronetotemporalvariation—butthepricesofall energysourcesvaryinbothdimensions.Thismeansthatchangesin thetradestatisticsdonotnecessarilyreflectanincreaseordecrease intheamountofenergytraded.Inanenergytraderelationship, energyflowsinonedirectionandmoneyflowsintheotherdirec- tion.Althoughthetwoareconnected,changesintheflowinone directionarenotnecessarilyreflectedproportionatelyintheflow intheotherdirection.Inparticular,thepriceelasticityofdemand foroilisconsideredtobelow[11,13,47],butinelasticitiesexistin manypartsoftheenergysector.Myinterestisintheglobalenergy interlinkagesassuch,ratherthanthemoneythatispaidforthem;

therefore,itisimportanttomakesurethattheﬁnancialtradedata areonlyusedasaproxyanddonotbecometheobjectiveofthe analysisintheirownright.

Analternativemightbetocalculateanenergymilesindicator foronlythesubsetofcountriesforwhichdataontheactualphys- icalvolumesofenergytradedareavailable,buthowwouldone thenselectarepresentativegroupofcountries?Thosecountries withmostcompletedatasets willagainbethemostindustrial- izedcountries,andthenonewouldagainmissoutonmuchofthe energyglobalizationdrivenbyemergingpowerssuchasChinaand Indiaandevenmoresoonthemanysmallercountrieswithrapidly growingeconomiesbutahistoryofweakstatistics.

Aftermuchexperimentation,Iconcludedthatthesolutionto thisproblemistoinsteadestimatetheaveragedistanceoverwhich eachcountrytradesineachyear,weightedbytheﬁnancialvalue ofeachtraderelationshipofthatcountry.Althoughthisapproach remainsvulnerabletovariationsinenergyprices,itislessprob- lematicthantheinitialconceptofenergymiles,astheﬁnancial valuesarenowonlyusedtoselecttheaveragedistanceoverwhich individualcountriestradeandwithinoneyearatatime.Toobtain theglobalsumforayear,Iaddupallofthecountryaveragesinthe worldforthatyear.

Whencalculatingtheaveragedistanceofenergytraderelation- ships,Ihaveagainwonderedwhetheritiscorrecttocounteach traderelationshiptwice,oncefortheexporterandonceforthe importer.IdecidedthatitisappropriatetodosobecauseIwant toknowtheaveragedistanceoftraderelationshipsforeachcoun- tryintheworld,andforthat,Ineedtouseallofitsrelationships becauseeachtraderelationshiphasadifferenteffectontheaver- ageoftheexportingandimportingcountry,whichdependsonthe othertraderelationshipsofthespeciﬁccountryinquestion.Thus, thedistanceswerecalculatedinadifferentwayfromthenumberof traderelationships,whereeachbilateralrelationshipwascounted

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0 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 600000

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

km

Fig.4. Sumofaveragedistancesofenergytraderelationshipsof197countries.

onlyonce,fromthesideoftheimportingcountry.Theevolutionof sub-indicatorBfrom1992to2011isillustratedinFig.4.

8. Sub-indicatorC:energydependency

Thislastsub-indicatorputstheothertwoincontextandreﬂects thesaliencyofenergyglobalization.Acountryengagesinacertain numberofenergytraderelationshipsoveracertaindistance,and thecountry’senergydependencysayssomethingabouttheimpor- tanceoftheothertwosub-indicatorstothatcountry.Acountry maytradeenergywithmanyremotecountries,butifthoserela- tionshipsplayasmallroleinthecountry’sownenergysupply,the countrycanbeconsideredlessglobalizedthaniftheyplayalarge role.

Aswiththeothersub-indicators, thedata onenergy depen- dencygiverisetosomemethodologicalissues.First,theydonot distinguishbetweenenergyimportdependencyandenergyexport dependency.Althoughexportingcountrieshavetriedtoarguethat thetwoarethesameconcern,oratleastequallyimportantcon- cerns,thereareclearlyimportantdifferencesbetweenthem[72,pp.

540,541],[43,p.32],[69].Whereassecurityofsupplyrelatesspecif- ically tobasic humanenergy needs—such asheating buildings, cookingfoodandthecontinuedfunctioningofthestate—security ofdemandisageneraleconomicconcernsimilartotheconcerns ofanycountrythatmakesmoneyfromexportingsomething.For example, if South Korea loses access to themarket for mobile phonesandRussialosesaccesstothemarketfornaturalgas,these twoeventsarecomparable.However,ifUkrainelosesaccesstothe importedgasthatitdependsoninthemiddleofwinter,thisis notonlyaneconomicproblembutalsoamoredirectandphys- ical(thoughnotnecessarilyirresolvable)threattotheUkrainian population’ssurvival.

Whilefullyrecognizingthisdifferencebetweensecurityofsup- plyandsecurityofdemand,thisarticleisnotaboutenergysecurity perseorabouttheconsequencesofenergyglobalization,butabout energyglobalizationinitsownright.Forthepurposesofthisarticle, exportsandimportsarethereforeconsideredequivalentinterms ofrepresentingconnectionswithotherpartsoftheworld.

Thesecondmethodologicalissuerelatedtothissub-indicator isthattheratioofnetenergyimportsorexportstodomesticcon- sumptionisonlyapartialindicatorofdependency.Forexample, imagineacountrythatconsumes10000bpdofoil,and100%ofitis imported.Thecountrygetsricherandstartsconsuming20000bpd, still100%fromimports.Inthiscase,theratioofenergyimportsto domesticconsumptionisstableat100%andthesub-indicatorreg- istersnochange,butinfact,thedependencyhasincreased.Thisisa possibleweaknessofthissub-indicator,butitisalsoworthnoting againthatthepurposeoftheindexistomeasureglobalizationand notenergysecurityandthatthissub-indicatordoesnotstandalone butiscombinedwithtwoothersthatcoverotheraspectsofglob-

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

%

Fig.5.Averageenergydependencyof197countries.

alization.Thedevelopmentofsub-indicatorCfrom1992to2011is illustratedinFig.5.Interestingly,andincontrasttothesteadyrise ofthetwoothersub-indicators,thisonedeclines.

9. Combiningthesub-indicators

Thenextstepistocombinethethreesub-indicatorsintoone index.Becausethesub-indicatorsaredifferenttypesofvalues,they cannotsimplybeaddedup(cf.[42,p.507]).Onesub-indicatoris measuredin1000sofkilometers,onein10softradepartners,and one asa percentage of energy dependency.In addition,energy dependencyformostcountriesisnetimport dependencyrang- ing 0–100,but for a substantialminority of countries, it is net exportdependency,whichcanrangefromzerotoseveralhundred percent.Inordertoovercomethesedifferencesandmakethesub- indicatorscompatiblewitheachother,Itookthenaturallogarithm ofthesub-indicatorvalues.Thatway,eachsub-indicatorbecomes anormalizedpercentage-changefromthebaseyear.

Whentheloggedsub-indicatorsareﬁnallycombinedintothe index,anotherissueisencountered,namelywhethertotakeinto accountthedifferenceinsizeofcountries. For example,should theglobalizationofLichtensteincountasmuchasthatofChina ortheUnitedStates?Ifthecountriesarenotweighted,achangein LichtensteinwouldhaveequalweightasachangeinChinaorthe UnitedStates.SinceLichtensteinisaverysmallpartoftheworld, thatwouldgiveadistortedviewofwhatisgoingonintheworld.

Ithereforeweightedthecontributionofeachcountrytotheglobal indexbyitsshareoftheworld’sGDPinthatyear.Thus,theformula fortheﬁnalindexisasfollows:

Indext=

lnagt+lnbgt+lncgt

× GDP_gt GDPgt

whereaistheglobalsumoftheaverageofthedistancesofthe energytraderelationshipsofeachcountry,weightedbytheﬁnan- cialvalueofeachtraderelationship;bisthesumofthenumberof energytraderelationshipsintheworld;andcistheaverageofthe energydependencyofallofthecountriesintheworld.Theﬁnal compositeenergyglobalizationindexisgraphedinFig.6.

10. Energyglobalizationcounter-trends

Fig.6showsthattheindexdoesriseovertime,inaccordance withthehypothesisatthebeginningofthisarticle.However,itis notacceleratingashypothesized.Furthermore,thedeclineinthe indexin1998,2001,2004,2008,and2009showsthatenergyglob- alizationcanalsogoupanddownandmaynotalwaysincrease overtime,furtherweakeningthehypothesis.

Thereareseveralfactorsthatcouldcounteractthetrendtoward energy globalization and lead to a falling index. Firstly, rising domestic consumption in major petroleum-exporting countries

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0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7

19921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011 Fig.6. Energyglobalizationindex1992–2011.

0.0 0.5 1.0

1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011

Mbd

Egypt

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0

1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011

Mbd

Saudi Arabia

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0

1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011

Mbd

Iran

0.0 1.0 2.0

1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012

Mbd

Indonesia

Fig.7. Energyexports(bluelines)graduallybeingeatenupbydomesticenergyconsumption(redlines).(Forinterpretationofthereferencestocolorinthisﬁgurelegend, thereaderisreferredtothewebversionofthisarticle.)

Sourceofdata:[50].

changes thebalancebetweenhow much energy theyconsume domesticallyandhowmuchtheyexporttoothercountries.The risingdomesticconsumptionisdrivenbyacombinationofthree mainfactors: populationgrowth,economic growth,and energy subsidies.Fig.7exempliﬁesthereduction innetenergyexports over time for several major energy exporters, allof which are majorenergysubsidizers.These changescontributetoa lower- ingoftheenergydependencysub-indicator,until thecountries becomezeronetenergyexporters.Astheygraduallybecomebigger energyimportersfromthereon,theycontributemoreandmoreto globalizationagain.

Secondly,risingproductionofunconventionaloilandgashave reducedthedependencyoftheUnitedStatesonenergyimports, especiallyafter2004(seetheturnaroundinUSoilimporttrendsin Fig.8).

Thirdly,the2008ﬁnancialcrisis,improvementsinenergyefﬁ- ciency,andincreaseduseoflocallyproducedrenewableenergyand coalallcontributedtoreducingEuropeanandUSdependencyon imports.

11. Conclusions

Atthebeginningofthisarticle,itwashypothesizedthatenergy globalizationhasbeengrowingandacceleratinginrecentdecades.

0 1000000 2000000 3000000 4000000 5000000 6000000

1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011

Bbl

Fig.8.USimportsofoilandoilproducts.

Sourceofdata:[21].

Duringthecourseofthearticle,anindexwasconstructedtoassess theprogressofenergyglobalization.Theconstructedindexindi- catesthatenergyglobalizationhasindeedgrown,butneitheras steeplynorassmoothlyasexpectedexpected,andwithoutaccel- erating.Ontheotherhand,itisstillpossiblethatinthelongerterm,

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therewillbeatrendtowardsteadilyincreasingenergyglobaliza- tionwithsomeupsanddownsalongtheway.

Itisalsopossiblethatenergyglobalizationwillabateandeven bereversedifarenewableornuclearenergytechnologyrevolu- tiontakes place andresultsin an abrupt re-decentralizationof theglobalenergysupply [51]. Unconventionaloiland gashave alreadymadeadentininternationalenergylinkagesbyreducingUS energyimportdependency[32,p.55].Suchdevelopmentsprovide supportforClark’s[12]critiqueofglobalizationconceptualizedas aninexorable,unidirectional,technologicallydeterminedprocess, whileintroducingaratherdifferentforceoffragmentationfrom thatenvisagedbyClark,whofocusedonnationalism.

However,asmentionedintheintroductiontothearticle,1.4 billionpeoplearenotconnectedtoanelectricitygrid,and2.7bil- lionpeoplerelyontraditionalbiomassforcooking[34,p.1][37,p.

153].Asthesepeoplestrivetogainaccesstomodernenergy,the long-termtrendtowardenergyglobalizationmayeasilycontinue unabated.

Energydependencywasincludedasoneofthesub-indicators fortheindex,andenergyglobalizationandenergydependencyare connected.However,althoughariseinenergydependencyleads toariseinenergyglobalizationasmeasuredbytheindex,arisein energyglobalizationdoesnotnecessarilyleadtoariseinenergy dependency—ifenergydependencyisconceptualizedasvulnera- bility(onthedistinctionbetweenenergysecurityandvulnerability, see[14,p.211].Whenenergyglobalizationisduetodiversiﬁcation ofsuppliersand/orconsumers,itactuallyleadstolowervulnera- bility.

In addition tothe spatial or horizontal energy globalization examinedinthisarticle,therearealsochangingverticallinkages betweendifferentenergytypesinindividuallocations.Forexam- ple,thegrowthinnaturalgasvehicles(NGVs)createsinteraction betweenthemarketsfornaturalgasandoil,andthegenerationof electricityfromcoal,naturalgas,nuclearpower,hydropowerand small-scalerenewableenergysourcesforthesamegridbringallof theseenergytypesintocontactwitheachother.Theseinteractions chaintogetherthegeographicalspansofdifferentenergytypes.

Forexample,intheEUelectricitymarket(s),Americancoalcom- petesagainstRussiannaturalgas,andbothoftheseareaffected byotherfactorsintheUnitedStates(forexample,shalegas,see [35]andRussia(forexample,subsidiesfornaturalgas,see[18,52].

Thisinterfacebetweengeographicalextentofenergylinkagesand changinginterlinkagesbetweendifferentenergytypesisnotcap- turedbytheindexinthisarticle.Thereasonforthisisthatthere arenodatathatcouldobtainasystematichandleontheinteraction betweenalldifferentenergytypes.

Themethodologicalissues thataroseinconnectionwiththe design of the index also serve to highlight how many basic questions remain unaddressed in much of the globalization literature—inparticular,howtointerprettheimpactofchanging stateboundariesduetostatedissolutionoruniﬁcationandwhether globalizationshouldbethoughtofinrelationtotheplanetorper capita.Theseissuesgototheveryheartoftheconceptofglobaliza- tion,anditissurprisingthattheyarenotmorewidelydiscussedin theliterature.Furtherexplorationofthemwouldhelpclarifywhat globalizationis,howitisevolving,andhowitcanbeanalyzed.

Acknowledgements

Thisarticleisaproductofaresearchprojectcarriedoutjointly bytheSwedishInstituteofInternationalAffairsandtheNorwegian InstituteofInternationalAffairsandfundedbytheSwedishEnergy Agency.Itshouldhowevernotbetakentorepresenttheviewsofthe SwedishEnergyAgency,andthepublicationpointsbelongexclu- sivelytotheNorwegianInstituteofInternationalAffairs.Theauthor

wouldliketothankthefollowingcolleaguesfortheirhelpwiththe article:NuraidaAbdykaparKyzy,FulvioCastellacci,JohanEriks- son,JakubGodzimirski,JoThoriLind,MortenBremerMaerli,Sergei Marinin,ArneMelchior,DaniiarMoldokanov,AlesiaPrachakova, Gunilla Reischl, and Stein SundstolEriksen. The author is par- ticularlyindebtedtoDaniiarMoldokanovandAlesiaPrachakova fortheircompetenthelpwiththegatheringandanalysisoflarge amountsofcomplexdata.Anyerrorsremaintheresponsibilityof theauthor.Anyonewhoisinterestedinusingthedataorgraphs fromthisstudyiswelcometodosoforwhateverpurposesthey likeaslongastheyquotethisarticleasthesourceofthedata.The dataandoriginalgraphsinexcelformatcanbeobtainedfromthe author.

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