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EXECUTIVE BOARD MEETING

23 OCTOBER 2019

(2)

Monetary Policy Report 3/19, overall picture

-1 0 1 2 3

-1 0 1 2 3

2013 2015 2017 2019 2021

2 0

1 2 3 4

0 1 2 3 4

2013 2015 2017 2019 2021

Output gap Policy rate

Inflation (CPI-ATE)

-3 -2 -1 0 1 2

-3 -2 -1 0 1 2

2013 2015 2017 2019 2021

Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

Exchange rate index (I-44)

85 90 95 100 105 110

85 90 95 100 105 110

2013 2015 2017 2019 2021

(3)

PMI for Norway’s trading partners

3

Manufacturing and services PMI. Twenty-five main trading partners.

Export weights. January 2010 – September 2019

45 50 55 60

45 50 55 60

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Manufacturing PMI

Services PMI

Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

(4)

Inflation for selected trading partners

4

Twelve-month change. Percent. January 2010 – September 2019

1)

Core inflation Headline CPI

-1 0 1 2 3 4 5

-1 0 1 2 3 4 5

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 US

Euro area UK

Sweden

-1 0 1 2 3 4 5

-1 0 1 2 3 4 5

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 US

Euro area UK

Sweden

1) UK through August 2019.

Source: Thomson Reuters

(5)

Crude oil spot and futures prices

5

USD/barrel. January 2013 – December 2022

Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

2013 2015 2017 2019 2021

Spot price

Futures price 22 October 2019 Futures price MPR 3/19

(6)

Long-term sovereign yields

Ten-year government bonds. Percent. 1 Jan. 2018 – 22 Oct. 2019

Sources: Bloomberg and Norges Bank 6

-1 0 1 2 3 4

-1 0 1 2 3 4

Jan-18 Apr-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 US UK Germany Norway Sweden

MPR 3/19

(7)

Policy rates

7

Policy rate and estimated forward rates

1)

. Percent.

22 October 2019 (solid line) and MPR 3/19 (broken line)

1) Forward rates are based on Overnight Index Swap (OIS) rates.

2) ECB deposit facility rate.

Sources: Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

-1 0 1 2 3

-1 0 1 2 3

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

US UK

Euro area policy rate

Euro area deposit facility rate²⁾

Sweden

(8)

Money market rates for Norway’s trading partners

8

Three-month money market rates for Norway’s trading partners.

Percent. 2012 Q1 – 2022 Q4

Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

40969 41699 42430 43160 43891 44621

-0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5

-0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5

2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

Forward rates MPR 3/19

Forward rates 22 October 2019

(9)

Three-month money market premium

9

Percentage points. 1 January 2015 – 31 December 2022

1)

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Norwegian money market premium Projections MPR 3/19

1) Projections for 2019 Q4 – 2022 Q4.

Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

MPR 3/19

(10)

Banks’ mortgage rates

10

Nominal, floating interest rate. February 2015 – October 2019

1)

1) Bank rates through August 2019.

Sources: Finansportalen, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

0 1 2 3 4 5

0 1 2 3 4 5

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Outstanding mortgages New mortgages Policy rate

(11)

Import-weighted exchange rate index (I-44)

11

1 September 2018 – 22 October 2019

Source: Norges Bank

101 103 105 107 109 111 101

103 105 107 109

111

Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19

I-44

Average Q4

Projections MPR 3/19

Stronger NOK

MPR 3/19

(12)

NOK against other currencies

12

Percentage movement in the exchange rate. 13 Sept. – 22 Oct. 2019

Sources: Bloomberg and Norges Bank

-6.3 %

-3.3 % -2.7 %

-2.6 % -2.3 %

-2.2 % -1.9 %

-1.4 %

-8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2%

GBP CAD I44 EUR USD NZD SEK AUD

Weaker NOK

(13)

GDP mainland Norway

13

Monthly and three-month growth. Seasonally adjusted. Percent.

January 2016 – December 2019

1)

1) Projections for 2019 Q3 – 2019 Q4.

2) System for Averaging short-term Models, 21 October.

Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

-0.8 -0.4 0 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 2

-0.8 -0.4 0 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 2

Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Monthly growth

Circulated three-month growth Projections MPR 3/19

GDP forecast from SAM²⁾

(14)

Business tendency survey and PMI

14

Business tendency survey. Composite indicator. Net figures.

PMI. Diffusion index. Seasonally adjusted. Feb. 2004 – Sept. 2019

Sources: DNB Markets, Norsk forbund for innkjøp og logistikk (NIMA) and Statistics Norway

35 40 45 50 55 60 65

-25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25

2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019

Business tendency survey (l.h.s.) PMI (r.h.s.)

(15)

Private consumption

15

Private consumption for households and non-profit organisations.

Three-month growth. Seasonally adjusted. Percent.

June 2016 – August 2019

Source: Statistics Norway

-2 -1 0 1 2

-2 -1 0 1 2

Jun-16 Dec-16 Jun-17 Dec-17 Jun-18 Dec-18 Jun-19

Total consumption Services consumption Goods consumption

(16)

House prices

16

Monthly and twelve-month change. Percent. Jan. 2015 – Sept. 2019

Sources: Eiendomsverdi, Finn.no and Real Estate Norway

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

-10 -5 0 5 10 15

-2 -1 0 1 2 3

Monthly change, seasonally adjusted (l.h.s.) Twelve-month change (r.h.s.)

(17)

Fiscal policy

Structural non-oil deficit. Share of trend GDP for mainland Norway.

2013 – 2022

1)

1) Projections for 2021 – 2022.

Sources: Ministry of Finance and Norges Bank

4 5 6 7 8 9

4 5 6 7 8 9

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Structural non-oil deficit Projections MPR 3/19

(18)

Unemployment

18

Shear of labour force. Seasonally adjusted. Jan. 2012 – Dec. 2019

1)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Registered unemployment

Registered unemployment and labour market programme participants LFS unemployment

Projections MPR 3/19

1) LFS through July. Projections for October – December 2019.

Sources: Norwegian Labour and Welfare Administration (NAV), Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

(19)

Inflation

19

Twelve-month change. Percent. January 2012 – December 2019

1)

1) Projections for October – December 2019.

Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

0 1 2 3 4 5

0 1 2 3 4 5

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

CPI CPI-ATE

Projections MPR 3/19

(20)

CPI-ATE by supplier sector

20

Twelve-month change. Percent. January 2012 – December 2019

1)

1) Projections for October – December 2019.

Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Imported consumer goods

Domestically produced goods and services Projections MPR 3/19

(21)

SAM 1) forecast for CPI-ATE inflation

21

Four-quarter change. Percent. 2014 Q1 – 2019 Q4

2)

0 1 2 3 4

0 1 2 3 4

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

CPI-ATE

Projections MPR 3/19 SAM MPR 3/19

SAM 21 October 2019

1) System for Averaging short-term Models.

2) Projections for 2019 Q4.

Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

(22)

EXECUTIVE BOARD MEETING

23 OCTOBER 2019

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