Nigeria: Governance and assistance
A political economy analysis
Inge Amundsen, Chr. Michelsen Institute
“Postmøtet”, CMI, Tuesday 25. January 2011
• Observation
– Optimism and pessimism in Nigeria
• Political Economy Analysis
– History and economy – The ’Oil Curse’
– Niger Delta syndrome
• Norwegian involvement
– Assistance and governance assistance – Statoil and other businesses
– Recommendations
Nigeria
Negative tendencies
• Deeply divided society
• 200 + ethic groups
• Muslim north, Christian/animist south
• Deep economic differences
• Military rule
• 30 of 50 years with dictatorships
• 66-79: Aguyi-Ironsi, Gowon, et al.
• 85-93: Ibrahim Babangida
• 93-98: Sani Abacha
• Biafra war
• 67-70: one million dead
Nigeria is deeply divided by regional, religious, ethnic, economic and political rifts.
Besides, the military coups, the dictatorships, the chaotic civil administrations, corruption, and the constant pushing and pulling from oil and big money have weakened Nigerians’ sense of law, trust in each other, and trust in government.
Negative tendencies
• Elections
• 79-85: Shagari: “Dem-All-Crazy”
• 1999: Elections OK, Obasanjo
• 2003: Bad: Obasanjo
• 2007: Worse: Yar’Adua
• April 2011: any better?
• Godfathers, moneybags, violence, …
• Corruption
• Abacha embezzled 6 bn US$, TI top 5
• TI: Nigeria at bottom (now 134/2.4)
• Political and bureaucratic corruption
• Money laundering, capital flight
• International organised crime
• Niger-Delta Syndrome
• The Resource Curse
Niger-Delta Syndrome
• Flaring, bunkering, abductions
• Densely populated
• Minority groups
• Ogoni people, Ken Saro-Wiwa
• 90% of oil production
• On-shore
• Pollution, gas flaring
• Violent conflict
• Environmental damage, flaring, pipelines
• Militarised
• Deportations, murder, destruction
• MEND, other ’liberation movements’
• Banditry: abductions, bunkering
Resource curse
• ‘Paradox of Plenty’
• Oil destroys the economy
• 400 bn US$: poorer than in 1960
• Crowding out
• Oil destroys the political system
• Gives the incentives and the means
• Election manipulations
• Manipulation of institutions of control
• Oil destroys the social fabric
• Corruption, inequality
• Pollution
• Militarisation, conflict, violence
Positive tendencies?
• Political development?
• President Goodluck Jonathan
• Reformists?
• INEC commissioner Prof. Jega
• Elections in 2011: Ribadu?
• Institutions of control?
• EFCC
• ICPC
• Parliament and courts?
• Economic development?
• Economic growth
• Diversification?
• Growing middle class?
• Lagos
Nuhu Ribadu Attahira Jega
President Goodluck Jonathan
Assistance to Nigeria
• Aid flows waning
– 2006: 11 bn US$ (debt relief) – 2007: 2 bn US$ (election year) – 2008: 1 bn US$
• Biggest
– IDA( World Bank, ’soft’ loans) – USAid (300 m/year, 10-20 ’GG’) – DFID (150 m/year, 50 ’GG’)
• Good Governance
– 2006: 17 m US$
– 2007: 5 m US$
– 2008: 8 m US$
• Norwegian aid
– For ’Good Governance”: 383 m/year – To Nigeria: 1.5 m/year – For GG/Nigeria < 1 m/year
Norway in Nigeria
• Norwegian aid
– To Nigeria: US$ 1.5 m/year
• Norwegian companies
– Statoil
• Profits in Nigeria: US$ 800 m in 2009 – Oil industry service companies
– Veritas
– Fred Olsen Energy – Farstad Shipping – Trico Supply
Recommendations
• Short term
– Elections i 2011
• Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC)
• Electoral registration
• Parallel vote tabulation
• Violence prevention
• Civil society organisations – Project 2011 Swift Count
– Domestic Election Observation Groups
• Long term
– Use Norwegian advantages and skills
• Oil for Development, Petrad
• EITI, PWYP (in Oslo)
• UNDP Oslo Governance Centre, Revenue Watch, etc.
– Monitor Norwegian companies
• ”Do no harm”, EITI principles, CSR
– Strengthen petroleum sector regulators
• NEITI
• Publish What You Pay (Nigeria)
• EFCC
• Courts? Media? CSOs?
The Report
• Research team:
– Main researcher: Inge Amundsen – Nigerian partner: Prof. Adele Jinadu – CMI resource person: Tina Søreide – Reviewer: Arne Tostensen
• Norad ’reference group’
– Norad staff
(FLID/ANKOR/SAMØK/OFU) – Embassy in Abuja
• Fieldwork
• Published as
– Norad Report 17/2010 – Presentation seminar Oslo
