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Figure 2.6.1.4. North Sea herring. Comparison of results of ICA (using same procedure as last year and setting the weights for the catch of 1wr and 2wr in 2004 at 0.01) with XSA (low shrinkage of 2.0) and SURBA. Due to the nature os SUBA the SSB scales are relative to 1 which is the series mean.
a
b
c
Recruitment
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5
1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001
Year
Recruitment
SSB
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3
1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001
Year
SSB
Mean F(2-6)
1.5
-0.5 0 0.5 1
1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001
Year
Mean F (2-6)
ICA ICA dw 1-2 XSA Surba
ar separable Figure 2.6.2.1. North Sea herring. SSQ surface for the deterministic calculation of the 5-ye
period.
SSBx1 – MLAI larvae survey,
Agex1- age disaggregated acoustic estimates Agex2 – age disaggregated IBTS estimates Agex3 – age disaggregated MIK net estimates
ICES HAWG Report 2005 154
Figure 2.6
epara-ble period). Su tock size
on 1 Januar
.2.2. North Sea herring. Illustration of stock trends from deterministic calculation (5-year s mmary of estimates of landings, fishing mortality at 4-ring, recruitment at 0-ring, s y and spawning stock at spawning time (solid line=total biomass, dotted line=SSB).
Figure 2.6.2.3. North Sea herring. Illustration of selection patterns diagnostics, from deterministic calcula-tion (5-year separable period). Top left, a contour plot of seleccalcula-tion pattern residuals. Top right, estimated selection (relative to 4-ringers) +/- standard deviation. Bottom, marginal totals of residuals by year and ring (with weights applied).
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Figure 2.6.2.4. North Sea herring. Illustration of residuals from deterministic calculation (5-year separable period). Diagnostics of the fit of the predicted SSB against the SSB MLAI survey. Top left, fitted popula-tions (line), and predicpopula-tions of abundance in each year made from the index observapopula-tions and estimated catchability (triangles +/- standard deviation), plotted by year. Top right, scatter plot and fitted relationship of abundance from fitted populations. Bottom, residuals, as ln(observed index) - ln(expected index) plotted against expected values and against time.
Figure 2.6.2.5. North Sea herring. Illustration of residuals from deterministic calculation (5-year separable period). Diagnostics of the fit of the 1-ring index against the acoustic surveys. Top left, fitted populations (line), and predictions of abundance in each year made from the index observations and estimated catchability (triangles +/- standard deviation), plotted by year. Top right, scatter plot and fitted relationship of abundance from fitted populations of 1-ringers in acoustic surveys. Bottom, residuals, as ln(observed index) - ln(expected index) plotted against expected values and against time.
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Figure 2.6.2.6. North Sea herring. Illustration of residuals from deterministic calculation (5-year separable period). Diagnostics of the fit of the 2-ring index against the acoustic surveys. Top left, fitted populations (line), and predictions of abundance in each year made from the index observations and estimated catchability (triangles +/- standard deviation), plotted by year. Top right, scatter plot and fitted relationship of abundance from fitted populations of 2-ringers in acoustic surveys. Bottom, residuals, as ln(observed index) - ln(expected index) plotted against expected values and against time.
Figure 2.6.2.7. North Sea herring. Illustration of residuals from deterministic calculation (5-year sepa-rable period). Diagnostics of the fit of the 3-ring index against the acoustic surveys. Top left, fitted popula-tions (line), and predicpopula-tions of abundance in each year made from the index observapopula-tions and estimated catchability (triangles +/- standard deviation), plotted by year. Top right, scatter plot and fitted relationship of abundance from fitted populations of 3-ringers in acoustic surveys. Bottom, residuals, as ln(observed index) - ln(expected index) plotted against expected values and against time.
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Figure 2.6.2.8. North Sea herring. Illustration of residuals from deterministic calculation (5-year separable period). Diagnostics of the fit of the 4 ring index against the acoustic surveys. Top left, fitted populations (line), and predictions of abundance in each year made from the index observations and estimated catchability (triangles +/- standard deviation), plotted by year. Top right, scatter plot and fitted relationship of abundance from fitted populations of 4 ringers in acoustic surveys. Bottom, residuals, as ln(observed in-dex) - ln(expected inin-dex) plotted against expected values and against time.
Figure 2.6.2.9. North Sea herring. Illustration of residuals from deterministic calculation (5-year separable period). Diagnostics of the fit of the 5 ring index against the acoustic surveys. Top left, fitted populations (line), and predictions of abundance in each year made from the index observations and estimated catchability (triangles +/- standard deviation), plotted by year. Top right, scatter plot and fitted relationship of abundance from fitted populations of 5 ringers in acoustic surveys. Bottom, residuals, as ln(observed in-dex) - ln(expected inin-dex) plotted against expected values and against time.
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Figure 2.6.2.10. North Sea herring. Illustration of residuals from deterministic calculation (5-year separable period). Diagnostics of the fit of the 6 ring index against the acoustic surveys. Top left, fitted populations (line), and predictions of abundance in each year made from the index observations and estimated catchability (triangles +/- standard deviation), plotted by year. Top right, scatter plot and fitted relationship of abundance from fitted populations of 6 ringers in acoustic surveys. Bottom, residuals, as ln(observed in-dex) - ln(expected inin-dex) plotted against expected values and against time.
Figure 2.6.2.11. North Sea herring. Illustration of residuals from deterministic calculation (5-year separabl period). Diagnostics of the fit of the 7 ring index against the acoustic surveys. Top left, fitted populations (line), and predictions of abundance in each year made from the index observations and estimate catchability (triangles +/- standard deviation), plotted by year. Top right, scatter plot and fitted relationship of abundance from fitted populations of 7 ringers in acoustic surveys. Bottom, residuals, as ln(observed in-dex) - ln(expected inin-dex) plotted against expected values and against time.
e d
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Figure 2.6.2.12. North Sea herring. Illustration of residuals from deterministic calculation (5-year separable period). Diagnostics of the fit of the 8 ring index against the acoustic surveys. Top left, fitted populations (line), and predictions of abundance in each year made from the index observations and estimated catchability (triangles +/- standard deviation), plotted by year. Top right, scatter plot and fitted relationship of abundance from fitted populations of 8 ringers in acoustic surveys. Bottom, residuals, as ln(observed in-dex) - ln(expected inin-dex) plotted against expected values and against time.
Figure 2.6.2.13. North Sea herring. Illustration of residuals from deterministic calculation (5-year separable period). Diagnostics of the fit of the 9 ring index against the acoustic surveys. Top left, fitted populations (line), and predictions of abundance in each year made from the index observations and estimated catchability (triangles +/- standard deviation), plotted by year. Top right, scatter plot and fitted relationship of abundance from fitted populations of 9 ringers in acoustic surveys. Bottom, residuals, as ln(observed in-dex) - ln(expected inin-dex) plotted against expected values and against time.
ICES HAWG Report 2005 166
Figure 2.6.2.14. North Sea herring. Illustration of residuals from deterministic calculation (5-year separable period). Diagnostics of the fit of the 1 ring index against the IBTS surveys. Top left, fitted populations (line), and predictions of abundance in each year made from the index observations and estimated catchability (triangles +/- standard deviation), plotted by year. Top right, scatter plot and fitted relationship of abun-dance from fitted populations of 1 ringers in IBTS. Bottom, residuals, as ln(observed index) - ln(expected index) plotted against expected values and against time.
Figure 2.6.2.15. North Sea herring. Illustration of residuals from deterministic calculation (5-year separable period). Diagnostics of the fit of the 2 ring index against the IBTS surveys. Top left, fitted populations (line), and predictions of abundance in each year made from the index observations and estimated catchability (triangles +/- standard deviation), plotted by year. Top right, scatter plot and fitted relationship of abun-dance from fitted populations of 21 ringers in IBTS. Bottom, residuals, as ln(observed index) - ln(expected index) plotted against expected values and against time.
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Figure 2.6.2.16. North Sea herring. Illustration of residuals from deterministic calculation (5-year sepa-rable period). Diagnostics of the fit of the 3 ring index against the IBTS surveys. Top left, fitted populations (line), and predictions of abundance in each year made from the index observations and estimated catchability (triangles +/- standard deviation), plotted by year. Top right, scatter plot and fitted relationship of abundance from fitted populations of 3 ringers in IBTS. Bottom, residuals, as ln(observed index) - ln(expected index) plotted against expected values and against time.
Figure 2.6.2.17. North Sea herring. Illustration of residuals from deterministic calculation (5-year separabl period). Diagnostics of the fit of the 4 ring index against the IBTS surveys. Top left, fitted populations (line), and predictions of abundance in each year made from the index observations and estimated catchabilit (triangles +/- standard deviation), plotted by year. Top right, scatter plot and fitted relationship of abun ance from fitted populations of 4 ringers in IBTS. Bottom, residuals, as ln(observed index) - ln(expected index) plotted against expected values and against time.
e y -d
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Figure 2.6.2.18. North Sea herring. Illustration of residuals from deterministic calculation (5-year sepa-rable period). Diagnostics of the fit of the 5 ring index against the IBTS surveys. Top left, fitted populations (line), and predictions of abundance in each year made from the index observations and estimated catchability (triangles +/- standard deviation), plotted by year. Top right, scatter plot and fitted relationship of abundance from fitted populations of 5 ringers in IBTS. Bottom, residuals, as ln(observed index) - ln(expected index) plotted against expected values and against time.
Figure 2.6.2.19. North Sea herring. Illustration of residuals from deterministic calculation (5-year sepa-rable period). Diagnostics of the fit of the 0 ring index against the MIK surveys. Top left, fitted populations (line), and predictions of abundance in each year made from the index observations and estimated catchability (triangles +/- standard deviation), plotted by year. Top right, scatter plot and fitted relationship of abundance from fitted populations of 0 ringers in MIK. Bottom, residuals, as ln(observed index) - ln(expected index) plotted against expected values and against time.
ICES HAWG Report 2005 172
Figure 2.6.2.20. North Sea herring. Historic uncertainty in the final model fit (ICA assssment): recruitment, SSB and mean F2-6. Percentiles 10, 25, 50, 75 and 90%.
North Sea herring, recruitment
0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000
1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004
recruits (millions)
10 25 50 75 90 average
North Sea herring, mean F2-6
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6
F2-6 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004
10 25 50 75 90 average
North Sea herring, SSB
2000000 2500000
es)
0 500000 1000000 1500000
1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004
SSB (tonn
10 25 50 75 90 average
Figure 2.6.2.21. North Sea herring. Uncertainty in the final model fit (ICA assssment): mean F2-6 against SSB. See figure 2.10.1
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7
1000 1500 2000 2500 3000
SSB (1000 t)
Me a n F 2 -6
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Figure 2.6.2.22. North Sea herring. Stock summary. Yield, recruitment at 0 wr, SSB and mean F2-6 from current assessment.
North Sea herring, catch
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Year
Catch (1000 t)
North Sea herring, recruitment
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Year
orth Sea herring, mean fishing mortality
1970 1980 1990 2000
Fig Co Ju
ure 2.8.1
mparison of the initial stock numbers used for evaluating harves control rules for the North sea herring in ne 2004, and the numbers used in the current medium term predictions.
NS herring
Initial stock number in medium term simulations Comparing current simulations and simulations in June 2004
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Number
Age
June Current
Figure 2.8.2
Comparison of recruitments generated by STPR and historical recrutiemtn values, at SSB > 550 000 tonnes.
NS herring
Modelled and historical recruitments at SSB > 550 Cumulated distributions
1 1.2
bility
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8
0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000 160000 Recruitm e nt
Cumulated proba Recruits
Historical
ICES HAWG Report 2005
Harvest rle applied as agreed, with different levels of assessment and implementation bias as indicated Figure 2.8.3 a.
Results of medium term predictions for North Sea herring
NS herring - medium term projections Probabilities for SSB
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Ye a r
Probability (%)
<800 800-1300
>1300
NS herring - medium term projections Percentiles for SSB
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Ye a r
NS herring - medium term projections Percentiles for F Fleet 1
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Ye a r
NS herring - medium term projections Percentiles for F Fleet 2
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Ye a r
NS herring - medium term projections Probabilities for SSB
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Ye a r
Probability (%)
<800 800-1300
>1300
NS herring - medium term projections Percentiles for SSB
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Ye a r
NS herring - medium term projections Percentiles for F Fleet 1
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Ye ar
NS herring - medium term projections Percentiles for F Fleet 2
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Y e ar
NS herring - medium term projections Probabilities for SSB
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Ye a r
Probability (%)
<800 800-1300
>1300
NS herring - medium term projections Percentiles for SSB
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Ye a r
NS herring - medium term projections Percentiles for F Fleet 1
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Y e ar
NS herring - medium term projections Percentiles for F Fleet 2
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Ye ar
No deviation
NS herring - medium term projections Percentiles for F Fleet2
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Ye ar
NS herring - medium term projections Probabilities for SSB
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Year
Probability (%)
<800 800-1300
>1300
NS herring - medium term projections Percentiles for SSB
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Year
NS herring - medium term projections Percentiles for F Fleet 1
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 201
Ye ar
NS herring - medium term projections Probabilities for SSB
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Ye ar
Probability (%)
<800 800-1300
>1300
NS herring - medium term projections Percentiles for SSB
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Year
NS herring - medium term projections Percentiles for F Fleet 1
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Year
NS herring - medium term projections Percentiles for F Fleet 2
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Ye ar
NS herring - medium term projections Probabilities for SSB
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Ye ar
Probability (%)
<800 800-1300
>1300
NS herring - medium term projections Percentiles for SSB
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Year
NS herring - medium term projections Percentiles for F Fleet 1
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Y e ar
NS herring - medium term projections Percentiles for F Fleet 2
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Ye ar
Results of medium term predictions for North Sea herring Harvest rule applied as agreed, except for a lower F for fleet 2 Different levels of assessment and implementation bias as indicated
ICES HAWG Report 2005
Results of medium term predictions for North Sea herring
Harvest rule applied as agreed, except for no constraint on reduction of TAC.
Different levels of assessment and implementation bias as indicated
NS herring - medium term projections Probabilities for SSB
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Ye a r
Probability (%)
<800 800-1300
>1300
NS herring - medium term projections Percentiles for SSB
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Ye a r
NS herring - medium term projections Percentiles for F Fleet 1
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Ye a r
NS herring - medium term projections Percentiles for F Fleet 2
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Ye a r
NS herring - medium term projections Probabilities for SSB
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Ye a r
Probability (%)
<800 800-1300
>1300
NS herring - medium term projections Percentiles for SSB
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Ye a r
NS herring - medium term projections Percentiles for F Fleet 1
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Ye a r
NS herring - medium term projections Percentiles for F Fleet 2
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Ye a r
NS herring - medium term projections Probabilities for SSB
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Ye a r
Probability (%)
<800 800-1300
>1300
NS herring - medium term projections Percentiles for SSB
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Ye a r
NS herring - medium term projections Percentiles for F Fleet 1
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Ye a r
NS herring - medium term projections Percentiles for F Fleet 2
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Ye a r
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7
1000 1500 2000 2500 3000
SSB (1000 t)
Mean F2-6
spaly downwght 2004_wght acoustic IBTS MIK MLA
Figure 2.10.1 North Sea herring, Scatter plot from bootstrap of variance covariance matrix from ICA assessment and the point values from the runs used in data exploration (see section 2.6.1)
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3 year running mean of unweighted acoustic survey residuals
-0.8 -0.4 0 0.4 0.8
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
Year
Mean residuals
1-2wr 4-7wr
3 year running mean of unweighted IBTS residuals
-0.8 -0.4 0 0.4 0.8
1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004
Year
Mean residuals
1-2wr 4-5wr
3 year running mean of unweighted catch residuals
-0.8 -0.4 0 0.4 0.8
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Year
Mean residuals
1-2wr 4-7wr
Figure 2.10.2 North Sea herring, trends in residuals at age in the ICA model. Averages over 3 years for ages 1 & 2wr and 4-7wr
NSherring
IBTS log index ratios, sm oothed averages
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Avg 1 Avg 2-4
NS herring
Acoustic survey: Log index ratios averages
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9
1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
Avg 1 Avg 3-6
NS herring
Log catch ratios, averaged over ages and years
-0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Avg 1-2 Avg 3-7
Figure 2.10.3 North Sea herring, log index ratios (IBTS and Acoustic surveys) and log catch ratios for ages 1-2 and 3-7 to illustrate the presence of different trends in mortality in the different data sources.
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