Disputes on Ukraine and Georgia

A conflict that has caused problems between Russia and Europe are Russia’s border states.

The concept of the “near abroad” was introduced by Moscow in the 1990s to justify its influence over the new states in the Russian periphery. Russia had a clear interest in keeping

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some degree of control over these states, also for security reasons. After the fall of the Soviet Union however, both the EU and NATO expanded eastwards integrating some of these states into the western framework. For NATO this was an active part of their enlargement policy seeking a more stabilized Europe through integration. For many of the new NATO members this was seen as a stepping stone into the EU and into the West. This was also important for those who had been forced into the Warsaw Pact which now could enter the western security system as free and independent states. Europe had two organizations working towards integration in Europe; but while the EU focused on economic integration, NATO’s focus lay in security. Thus, both the EU and NATO, if for different reasons, had primary interest in areas the Kremlin regarded as its domain. While this was alarming enough for Russia which considered this to break a promise given to Russia at the end of the Cold War, Europe and the U.S. also began to support regime change from within and geopolitical reorientation in Russia’s borderlands. Georgia and Ukraine are the most notable examples.¹⁵

The conflict between Russia and the West revolving Ukraine and Georgia both stemmed from the same issue: the involvement of the West in internal matters in Russia’s near abroad.

In Ukraine the President was reorienting the country westwards and wanted Ukraine to join NATO. President Leonid Kuchma however, was accused of murder, corruption and breaking international sanctions by selling military equipment to Iraq. Ukraine’s admittance to NATO was not possible as long as he was president. A presidential election was coming up however, and candidate Viktor Yuschenko was striking down on corruption and was very clear in his intentions of orienting Ukraine to the west and permanently establish Ukraine as a western democracy. This did not sit well with the Kremlin. Not only did they consider Ukraine as a country of which they were entitled to some influence, Ukraine was a strategic interest.

Russia’s major pipelines to Europe run through Ukraine, Russia’s Black Sea fleet is located outside Ukraine and eight million Russians live within the Ukraine borders. Putin reacted by sending his own campaign advisors down to Ukraine to help the opposing candidate Viktor Yanukovych, a candidate from the Russian industrial part of Ukraine which was Moscow friendly. The campaign turned ugly but Yuschenko was leading on polls, when he got poisoned with dioxin. He was seriously ill and sent to a private hospital in Vienna, but after only two weeks and still in terrible conditions he returned to Ukraine. This only strengthened his candidacy and on Election Day polls overseen by international observers he had an eleven percent lead. There were numerous claims of election fraud however and Putin sent his congratulations Yanukovych before all votes were counted. Massive protests followed on

Kiev’s Independence Square, the U.S. refused to recognize the election and finally the Ukraine Supreme Court ruled a new election which Yuschenko won overwhelmingly.¹⁶

Georgia also experienced political turmoil started by the political opposition due to alleged election fraud and dissatisfaction with President Shevardnadze, a former foreign minister in the Soviet Union. The President called on Russian help to overcome the western oriented opposition and Kremlin sent their minister of foreign affairs Igor Ivanov. He tried to reach a compromise by suggesting holding a new election while at the same time keeping the president. This did not succeed and the president stepped down. The new president, Mikhail Saakashvili, did not exactly hide his devotion to the west and at his inauguration which both Minister of State Colin Powell and the Russian foreign minister attended, the EU flag was hoisted and Ode to Joy was played. The episodes in these two states made it clear to Moscow that their influence even in post-Soviet space was waning. Russia also accused the west of funding pro-democracy groups within Ukraine and Georgia and was openly dissatisfied with the meddling in these states internal affairs.¹⁷

The episodes in Ukraine and Georgia were set off by the desire to reorient towards the West. And they showed a clear dissatisfaction in Russia regarding the expansion of NATO.

Nonetheless, Putin had himself travelled to NATO’s headquarters in the aftermath of 9/11 where he quite frankly asked secretary-general George Robertson when Russia would be invited into NATO. Putin was trying to cash-in his help to the U.S. and NATO against Afghanistan. The response was akin to a dismissal: there are no invitations, Russia had to apply. Putin’s response was clear: Russia would not stand in line with a lot of small countries that did not matter. The German Chancellor Gerard Schroder, welcomed the idea of Russia in NATO and thought it would be good both for the alliance and for Russia. Hardliners in Washington and Moscow disagreed. Neither could the NATO members agree on the future of Ukraine and Georgia in NATO. The tables were turned, this time around, with Angela Merkel and Germany the strongest opposing voice while George W. Bush and the U.S. was in favor.

Germany however, argued that Georgia could not join NATO on account of internal conflict and an ongoing conflict with Russia. Georgia’s hope of entering NATO however, had a profound impact on the military conflict over South-Ossetia and Abkhazia.¹⁸

Georgia was facing a war with Russia over two rebelling regions within the Georgia’s territory. This would bring the U.S. closer to war with Russia than they had been at any time since the end of the Cold War. Georgia asked the U.S. for military assistance fearing that

Russia would again seek territorial expansion bringing gloomy memories from the era of the Soviet Union. Georgia failed to take into consideration however, that Georgia was not a vital interest for the U.S. and they were not about to risk war with the Russians over this. Russia saw a possibility to gain influence in an area where they recently had been embarrassed. They recognized the independence of South-Ossetia, appointed Russian ministers and offered Russian citizenship to everyone who wanted it. The U.S. attempted a diplomatic solution but the conflict intensified with heavy military support to the rebellions and Russian military presence increased. Negotiations were again initiated but this involved a Georgian promise to never use force in these areas, under Russian surveillance. This was unacceptable for Georgia which sought to include the world community. Then fights broke out between Georgian peacekeepers and rebellions and Condoleezza Rice travelled to Georgia. She convinced President Saakashvili to sign the no force pledge and declared publically that the U.S. would stand by Georgia. Georgia was also painfully aware that the use of force would seriously harm their chances of joining NATO. U.S. support did not seem to effect the Russians who drove tanks into a foreign country the first time since the Cold War. Kremlin also stated to the U.S. that they would pull back if the President Saakashvili was replaced, which was unacceptable as he was democratically elected. France entered the conflict but President Nicolas Sarkozy did not succeed either. Finally President Bush approved a humanitarian mission by the U.S. military in Georgia and the conflict came to an end. In the end it became quite clear that standing alone was a price Russia was willing to take and the conflict left the relationship between the U.S. and Russia at a new post-Cold War low. Outside of Europe there were also conflicts of interest, particularly in the Middle East. This gives another example of Russia’s case to case approach on alliances.¹⁹