Looking at the evidence presented, it becomes apparent that Egypt and Saudi Arabia each face different challenges and would have different incentives for acquiring nuclear weapons. Egypt’s long history and high degree of sophistication in nuclear technology and research makes it well equipped for developing a nuclear weapons programme. The biggest obstacle to opportunity is its economic weakness. However, whereas scholars have argued that such economic weakness is sufficient to preclude a potential weapons programme (Kadhim, 2006), it is a fact that weaker and more vulnerable economies have produced nuclear weapons in the past shows that the argument from economy that Egypt lacks the opportunity to produce nuclear weapons is weak. In addition to these factors, it is evident that if Egypt was in possession of or managed to develop a nuclear weapon, it would have the means to use it.
In terms of willingness, the picture from Egypt is less clear, although this dissertation will make the argument that there are several incentives for the development of a nuclear weapon. Despite having elected not to follow suit upon Israel’s opaque nuclear weapons programme and being less directly threatened by a nuclear Iran, the changing security situation in the Middle East might encourage Egypt to acquire nuclear weapons. The political situation in Egypt is uncertain and this dissertation has not made it an aim to predict the direction which it might take, but allows for the potential use of an expanded nuclear infrastructure or even a nuclear weapons programme in order to garner popular support behind the regime. The changing security situation and Iran’s move towards a breakout capacity combined with the neglect of the established nuclear weapons states to disarm can be seen as a weakening of the norm against proliferation, and Egyptian spokesmen have been clear that if their aim of a nuclear weapons free zone in the Middle East fails, they may reconsider their choice of non-proliferation. One of the strongest incentives for an Egyptian nuclear weapon may be the desire for prestige in the region; the challenges posed by the recent nuclear developments in Iran, this could lead to a desire to acquire nuclear weapons as an affirmation of their role as a traditional leader of the Arab world. Whether these various
incentives will combine to make Egypt reconsider its non-proliferation stance and make use of their opportunity to produce nuclear weapons is contingent on regional factors are beyond the scope of this dissertation. What is clear is that if the political will for a nuclear weapon should become present, Egypt would be in a strong position to carry out its development.
The case of Saudi Arabia is in some ways the inverse of Egypt, and in other ways remarkably similar. Whereas Egypt has a long history of technical expertise, Saudi Arabia has very little in terms of nuclear infrastructure, and despite plans for nuclear power plants in the future have no means of rapidly developing a weapon or a breakout capacity. Despite this lack of technical expertise and infrastructure, Saudi Arabia stands in a much stronger economic position to see
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through such developments were the necessary political decisions made. Intriguingly, the
existence of a Saudi Arabian long-range missile capability raises questions as to the future stance on Saudi Arabian proliferation, and their existence highlights a potential hedging strategy by the regime should they one day desire nuclear weapons. The wild card in the Saudi equation is the extent of their nuclear relationship with Pakistan. In the unexpected event of a direct purchase of a limited number of nuclear warheads, Saudi Arabia would be an economically resilient nuclear weapons state with a long reach.
Whether the Saudi state should desire this outcome is, like in the case of Egypt, contingent on regional developments, but the security threat posed by a potential nuclear armed Iran is much more severe than in the case of Egypt. Furthermore, it is possible that this might alleviate some tensions between Saudi Arabia and Israel, but more likely it will give rise to an even more complex security situation in the Middle East, with an increasing number of nuclear capable states. In terms of domestic politics, Saudi Arabia does not face the same challenges as Egypt does and may not potentially stand to gain as much as Egypt if it were to acquire nuclear weapons. However, again like Egypt, Saudi Arabia has made clear statements as to its nuclear intentions in the face of a weakening of the non-proliferation norm, albeit in a significantly more direct manner. The extent to which this is political rhetoric can be debated, but it remains an important consideration in attempting to evaluate a state’s risk of proliferating. Finally, Saudi Arabia would have much of the similar drive as Egypt for the prestige and status afforded by nuclear weapons, although this like several other factors is contingent on a change in the current nuclear status quo in the region.
8 Conclusion
In the continuously developing security situation in the Middle East, due attention should be given to more states than those already proven to be in the process of acquiring a break-out capacity or actual nuclear weapons. This dissertation has presented an unorthodox multi-causal method for understanding drivers of nuclear weapons proliferation. The main strength of such an approach lies in the ability to analyse and explain which states have the opportunity; through technical and economic means, and the willingness; influenced by strategic and political factors, to acquire nuclear weapons.
The findings of this dissertation show evidence that Egypt could be capable of producing a very limited amount of nuclear weapons given their current infrastructure, but has an economy that should be resilient enough to withstand the worst effects of such a policy. Furthermore, Egypt would be able to put such weapons to use, or at least enjoy a credible deterrence effect upon acquisition of a nuclear weapon. Saudi Arabia lacks the technology and infrastructure present in Egypt, but does have substantial economic resources and resilience if the decision was made to acquire nuclear weapons. And a question remains as to the intended use of the Saudi Arabian DF-3 missiles. The difference then between the two states is that in the case of Saudi Arabia,
proliferation would either happen instantaneously, based on a potential purchase from Pakistan, or very slowly, if the state has to develop nuclear weapons domestically.
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Having shown evidence that both Egypt and Saudi Arabia have the opportunity, to a greater or lesser extent, of acquiring nuclear weapons, the discussion moved towards the extent to which the states could be found willing to acquire such weapons. Egypt would be less likely to respond to the change in its security situation posed by a potentially nuclear Iran, but developing a nuclear weapon in order to gain domestic support appears viable given the current conditions in the state.
Saudi Arabia however, does not have the same need to gather support for the regime. Rather, it experiences a more significant security threat from Iran and its potential nuclear weapons. Both states share a similar stance in terms of the normative regime regulating nuclear proliferation, and as such these states warrant attention if the norms surrounding nuclear proliferation were to weaken. Similarly, both states could be motivated to acquire nuclear weapons through a regional contest for status and prestige, yet whether this will manifest itself in the proliferation of nuclear weapons is difficult to ascertain.
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