Ice forecasting, detection and monitoring

Offshore operations in ice environments require detailed knowledge of ice conditions. Reliable forecasts of ice drift behaviour for first year sea ice and extreme ice features such as thick multi-year ice and icebergs are essential in supporting ice management activities and in supporting effective operational decision making.

Report no.: 1071842-RE-01 Rev. no.: 03 Rev. date: 16 December 2015 Page 35 of 266 Drift forecasting involves predicting the future trajectories and sizes of sea ice and/or icebergs using experience, past drift and drift models. Drift forecasts are important to consider for design of new platforms, as well as operations in iceberg and sea ice physical management and for station-keeping.

Forecasting of icebergs and sea ice share many similarities, but forecasting of sea ice is more complex due to interactions of stresses between floes, the possibility of ridging and ice growth as well as new ice formation.

Operators need long term forecasts of when sea ice will arrive at a location, the severity of conditions and when conditions will become too severe, requiring demobilisation. Short term forecasts are needed to determine which ice features present the highest risk and should be managed, at what point operations should be shut down, and when should equipment and personnel be moved off site.

Portals and projects for satellite-based detection and monitoring ice and iceberg conditions:

• IcebergFinder.com: The website http://icebergfinder.com/ is a website that reports the locations of icebergs along Newfoundland & Labrador’s east coast. During the iceberg season, satellite surveillance is used to locate the icebergs, which are then mapped using Google Maps.

• Ice charting guideline: This project involves development of guidelines for the use of satellite- based ice information in the oil and gas sector (C-CORE, 2014). The industry has spent significant effort developing standards for operations in the Arctic, however, no industry-wide standard exists for ice charting. The guideline will cover offshore oil and gas industry, from the polar regions to the mid-latitudes, and for current and future developments. The guideline will be limited to sea ice and icebergs, and will not cover other metocean conditions. The project is conducted by C-CORE, Polar Imaging Ltd. and Bear Ice Technology / Shell, and is supported by IOGP and ESA.

o Phase 1: Requirements and current practices (completed)

- Description of the oil and gas lifecycle and corresponding ice assessment and monitoring needs

- Ice assessment, monitoring product / service requirements and current remote sensing practices by region; Beaufort Sea, Chukchi Sea, Sea of Okhotsk, Canada East Coast, Greenland, Barents Sea (Shtokman field), North Caspian Sea, Bohai Sea, Southern Atlantic (Falklands) and Kara Sea

- Preliminary identification of constraints and opportunities, and corresponding conclusions and recommendations

o Phase 2: Development of guideline document (in progress)

• Monitoring Arctic land and sea ice using Russian and European satellites (MAIRES, 2011-2014):

The objective of the MAIRES project (http://maires.nersc.no/) was to develop methodologies for satellite monitoring of Arctic glaciers, sea ice and icebergs. Methodologies to retrieve quantitative information from the European Space Agency (ESA) and Russian Space Agency data will be

developed, and examples of satellite derived products for each of the three thematic areas will be presented. The main satellite data will be Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR), optical and infrared images, radar altimeter data, passive microwave data and geoid data from GOCE (Gravity field and Ocean Circulation Explorer). The MAIRES project is focussed on the Barents and Kara Sea region.

• Monitoring hazardous sea ice features using satellite imagery: The Canadian Arctic is a highly dynamic environment that has the oldest and thickest sea ice in the world. The ice includes various features hazardous for shipping and offshore operations. Zakharov et al. (2015) describe a

technology addressing the problem satellite based monitoring of hazardous ice features, which include ice ridges, hummocks and rubble fields. Additional attention was paid to identifying glacier ice (ice islands and icebergs). Zakharov et al. (2015) have demonstrated the technology using images collected over the Canadian Arctic in 2013-2014 and verified the ice features by analysing high resolution satellite optical images that overlap spatially and temporally with the synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data. Various satellite images and data fusion techniques were explored by

Report no.: 1071842-RE-01 Rev. no.: 03 Rev. date: 16 December 2015 Page 36 of 266 Zakharov et al. (2015) for identifying ice features and retrieving their characteristics. Ice parameters being studied include height, size and frequency of ice features. The work by Zakharov et al. (2015) addresses the problem of quantitative retrieval of hazardous ice features from a variety of SAR and optical images:

o Data fusion and SAR polarimetry provide valuable information for detecting glacier ice and hummocks, especially when these features are embedded in pack ice.

o Detecting small features in low resolution data can be challenging, but medium resolution optical and SAR fusion has been successful at distinguishing first-year and multi-year deformed ice features. Using dual polarized SAR data alone, it is possible to highlight glacier ice, but manual interpretation is required to verify results.

o Future work for this area will be to assess the utility of SAR and optical fusion products for automatic feature detection.

• Satellite-based information and data services in the polar regions and the cryosphere by Polar View: Polar View (http://www.polarview.org/) is a global organization providing satellite-based information and data services in the polar regions and the cryosphere. Their services include enhanced sea ice information (charts and forecasts) as well as ice-edge and iceberg monitoring data. They also provide monitoring services for lake and river ice, snow cover maps and glacier monitoring and assessment.

General detection and monitoring of ice conditions has traditionally been conducted by unmanned aerial vehicles and flight surveillance. A lot of effort is put into research and development of new technology regarding detection and monitoring of ice conditions. The technology development and research activities regarding ice detection and monitoring identified are presented below.

One part of the PRNL Ice Management Program (PRNL, 2014) focuses on ice and iceberg detection / discrimination. One of the objectives of the program is to be able to detect ice / icebergs in remote

locations, to discriminate between icebergs and other targets, to detect icebergs in high seas and in sea ice, and to provide sea ice characterization (e.g. ice thickness). As part of this program, several research

programs are initiated that may improve the effectiveness of ice and iceberg detection. This includes:

• Advanced satellite radar JIP (2012-2013): C-CORE led a project to extend the capabilities of satellite radar to distinguish between multi-year ice and other ice variations. The project involves advanced satellite radar-based iceberg detection and sea ice monitoring. Furthermore, the project includes software enhancements and ice island hindcasting.

• Dual polarized radar JIP (2012): Rutter Inc. has received funding to build and test an advanced radar system that is capable of providing enhanced ice navigation and detection. The dual polarized radar is expected to help operators distinguish between the much harder multi-year ice and first- year ice. The project involves enhancement of Rutter Inc.'s dual-polarized Sigma 6 marine radar platform for better detection and discrimination of multi-year ice.

• Ice thickness radar JIP (2013-2015): JIP led by C-CORE to develop a radar system for characterizing ice thickness for tactical ice management purposes. Field trials of this are being considered.

Another part of the PRNL Ice Management Program (PRNL, 2014) focuses on enhanced iceberg and sea ice drift forecasting with the following project:

• Enhanced iceberg and sea ice drift models and forecasts: The objective of the JIP is to develop technologies for improving ice and iceberg drift forecasting. The JIP is a part of the PRNL Ice Management Program.

Report no.: 1071842-RE-01 Rev. no.: 03 Rev. date: 16 December 2015 Page 37 of 266 Since the 1990s upward-looking sonar (ULS) has been used to monitor ice thickness in Arctic and cold regions. The following initiatives are mentioned:

• Advanced acoustic instrumentation for deep sea imaging and sensing project (2013-2015): PRNL funded research project undertaken by Kraken Sonar Systems Inc. to develop and demonstrate a high resolution acoustic sensor for 3D seabed survey and underside ice profiling with increased area coverage rate compared to currently available technologies. A high coverage rate will

minimize the time required to survey a given area, thereby reducing the cost of the survey and the risk for personnel exposed to harsh environmental conditions. High resolutions imagery and topography are useful for seabed exploration, infrastructure survey, characterization of ice

thickness and composition and potentially for detection oil spills either on the seabed or at the ice / seawater interface.

• ASL Environmental Services’ ice profiler (http://www.aslenv.com/ips.html): This is an upward- looking sonar device mounted on the sea floor to accurately measure ice draft. In order to estimate ice forces, production rates and mass balances, accurate measurements of ice thickness are

essential.

• Field data for sea ice and iceberg drift offshore Newfoundland and Labrador: Three ice drift beacons have recently been deployed offshore Newfoundland and Labrador. Taylor et al. (2015) present a description of the beacons used, deployment activities, as well as results from these beacons are reported, along with initial analysis of the data. These new data provide interesting and sometimes unexpected drift behaviour. Results from these beacons are analysed in light of ocean current and wind data and conclusions regarding the correlations between these

environmental conditions and observed drift behaviour are discussed for each case.

• National Snow and Ice Data Center (http://nsidc.org/) has gathered a data set that consists of upward looking sonar draft data collected by submarines in the Arctic Ocean. Data is provided as ice draft profiles and statistics derived from the profile data. The statistics include ice draft characteristics, keels, level ice, leads, un-deformed and deformed ice (NSIDC, 2006).

• Nortek’s AWAC Ice profiler (http://www.nortekusa.com/): Nortek's AWAC (acoustic wave and current) ice profiler is a combined current profiler, wave directional system, and ice profiler. For ice measurements, the AWAC can be used to detect the interface between water and ice as an ice profiler. The surface is a strong acoustic reflector, and this is true also when the water surface is covered with ice. When compared with a reference measurements the AWAC can be used to estimate the surface ice thickness. This method was used during the winter 2008/2009 in the Arctic with very good results (Magnell et al., 2010).

Technology for ice and iceberg detection:

• C-CORE’s altimeter ice detection (AID): C-CORE has been working with its LOOKNorth R&D team to develop the Altimeter Ice Detection (AID) tool (https://www.c-core.ca/AID). AID uses freely

available satellite altimeter data. The AID offers the ability to surveil large areas quickly, identifying target areas that can be further investigated using Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR). Work is ongoing to improve ship / iceberg discrimination in AID and to compare AID detections against C-CORE’s extensive in-house historical SAR datasets. The aim is to reliably extrapolate iceberg population within an area of interest from an AID point detection.

• C-CORE’s ship and iceberg detection tool: C-CORE has developed a semi-automated satellite surveillance tool that will increase the capability for ship and iceberg detection with up to 95%

accuracy. Performance analysis of available sensors and a framework for integrating all available data will provide an up-to-date and accurate wide-area picture (https://www.c-

core.ca/IceManagement).

Report no.: 1071842-RE-01 Rev. no.: 03 Rev. date: 16 December 2015 Page 38 of 266 Technology and R&D activities for navigation and operation:

• Canatec’s ice advisor program (http://www.canatec.ca/): Canatec has developed a software and hardware for measuring, communicating and forecasting ice movement. The software package contains all public available imagery for the total Arctic.

• Rutter Inc.’s Ice Navigator: The Sigma S6 Ice Navigator (http://www.rutter.ca/ice-navigator) is an ice navigation solution for ice defence, ice breaking and port access. It is an ice detection and navigation system that enables ships operating in ice to differentiate between open water, ice pans, leads in ice fields, and thicker ice ridges that impact operations in ice zones. The Ice Navigator is developed to detect both large icebergs as well as bergy bits and growlers that can significantly damage a vessel or platform. The situational awareness provided by the Ice Navigator occur across a wide range of sea states, weather, and daylight conditions, providing tactical information

essential for real time route planning and decision making.

• PractICE JIP: In the follow-up from the Arctic operations handbook, the PractICE JIP together with several other JIPs were suggested. However, the PractICE JIP has not been initiated. The aim of the PractICE JIP would be to provide a real-time simulation platform enabling practical simulations of offshore operations in ice. It would build on previous conceptual studies, initial model work and would comply with training objectives and requirements set by the industry.

• Safe Arctic logistics, transport and operations (SALTO, 2014-2017): The SALTO JIP will provide a PC simulation tool for risk-based, probabilistic design to help the industry prepare for the

environmental conditions (wind, fog, ice, icing) of the Arctic and, henceforth, to optimise operations of ships and offshore constructions. Pre-knowledge of workability, risk and limiting conditions will lead to enhanced safety and reduced environmental impact. This JIP was initiated following the Arctic operations handbook JIP http://www.marin.nl/web/JIPs-

Networks/Public/SALTO.htm

• Viking Ice Consultancy’s common operational picture display (http://www.viking- ice.com/whatwedo): The system includes real time tracking of ice objects and vessels,

communication and reporting and display of all relevant metocean and ice data. This system will provide for a better basis for decision making. The system was first time used in the Kara Sea in 2014.