01. Line thickness indicates population size. The age break used in the US and Canada is 18-24 year olds, while the UK age break is 16 -24 year olds.
02. In the period measured, there were about 25 million to 27 million 18-24 year olds in the US,254 about 7 million 16-24 year olds in the UK, and over 3 million 18-24 year olds in Canada.255
03. Data in each country is sourced from the traditional leaders in TV viewing measurement: Nielsen in the US, BARB in the UK and Numeris in Canada.256
04. There are multiple important differences in the measurement methodologies used by the three data providers. These are far too many to enumerate, but they almost certainly matter. Some viewing data includes tablet viewing, while some does not. Some is passively measured, others rely on diaries, and the definition of live is different, etc.
05. The Canadian data is annual instead of quarterly.
06. There are important country differences. Just a few examples:
A. Although used for a small portion of all viewing, BBC iPlayer is a factor in the UK (and appeals to younger viewers), and there is no real equivalent in the North American markets. As of 2017, 44 percent of all iPlayer users were aged 16 to 34, the single largest demographic, and for comparison, that same age group made up only 30 percent of both TV and radio audiences.257
B. In Canada, TV habits of English-speaking and French- speaking (about 22 percent of the population) viewers are sharply different, with French speakers watching more traditional TV each day and annual declines being lower. As of 2017, 57 percent of those in English- speaking Canadian homes subscribed to a video- streaming service, but only 38 percent in French- speaking homes had a streaming subscription.258
C. In the US market, there are large differences within the population in terms of race, with the average 18-24 year old watching about 151 minutes of live and time- shifted TV per day in Q4 2016, while the average Black American of the same age was watching 246 minutes (63 percent more than the composite average) and the average Asian American was watching only 83 daily minutes (45 percent less than the composite).
07. Although younger viewers are moving some of their daily video minutes away from traditional TV comedy and drama, other categories such as sports viewing have remained relatively strong. Therefore, sports viewing now makes up an increasing percentage of total traditional TV viewing for young people. That’s great for sports and traditional TV, since it is watched live and with strong ad loads and subscription fees. But it also means that analyzing annual trends is more complicated, volatile and country-specific. Three examples:
A. Whether in regards to the football World Cup or the Champions League, strong or weak performance by any of the UK teams has a large positive or negative effect on viewing in the UK market. Although some in North America watch these matches, the effect on viewing numbers is much smaller.
B. Meanwhile, NFL (football) is the dominant TV sport in the US. A period of slightly declining ratings (as was seen in the first half of the 2016-17 season) would have a material impact on TV viewing by young people.
Assuming they watch on average 120 minutes of TV per day in that fall football quarter, even a six-minute decline in NFL viewing would cause a drop in younger viewing figures.
C. In Canada, neither kind of football is as important for traditional TV; instead, it is NHL (ice hockey). A playoff year that saw no Canada-based teams perform well would see much smaller audiences than a year when several Canadian teams (especially those based in larger markets) made it through several rounds. A five- to-10-minute per day impact for 18-24 year olds would be a conservative estimate.
08. Equally, although Figure 21 shows relatively stable, mainly single-digit, annual declines in the US, UK and Canada over recent years, data from other countries shows a different story. Figure 23 shows annual data over the same time span as Figure 21 for a mix of “younger”
demographics from the Nordic countries of Sweden, Denmark, Finland and Norway. These countries tend to have high levels of English fluency, and adoption of streaming services and other international content has been rapid. As can be seen, viewing has tended to decline
but with rapid year-over-year changes: Danish millennials went from a 14 percent viewing decline in 2013 to a 0 percent decline in 2014 and then plunged to a nearly 18 percent decline in 2016. And although 2016 viewing declines were in double digits in Sweden, Denmark and Norway, Finnish 15-24 year olds saw a moderating decline in the same year of only 3 percent. 2017 data will be needed, but at this time, it seems impossible to predict Nordic millennial viewing for future years; no clear trend is visible.259
Figure 23. Yearly change in traditional TV viewing by young people, Nordics 2011-16
Sources: Kantar Gallup Denmark, Finnpanel, Kantar TNS Norway, MMS.
Sweden 15-24 Norway 20-29 Denmark 19-34 Finland 15-24 -25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
2016 2015
2014 2013
2012 2011
Deloitte Global predicts that 20 percent of North Americans with internet access will get all of their home data access via cellular mobile networks (mobile-only) in 2018. Deloitte Global further predicts that a mixture of cellular and fixed wireless access (FWA) technologies could lead to 30-40 percent of the population relying on wireless for data at home by 2022, an increase from only 10 percent in 2013.260 These people will have no active wired data connection to their home – no coaxial cable, fiber-optic connection or DSL copper line. Instead, they rely solely on radio technology for their entire home internet usage. They are likely also to access the internet while at work, in school, in coffee shops and so on, but when they are at home, they have no other data-access technology.
Deloitte Global further predicts significant variation in the proportion of the population that use only cellular mobile for data access by country and by region (see Figure 24). According to our research, less than a tenth of people in France and the UK were mobile-only, but in Turkey the figure was more than three times higher. In Latin America, for example, Deloitte Brazil believes that over a third of all homes in Brazil were mobile data only. And in China, a fifth of the online user base (rather than households) were mobile-only as of 2016.261 In Tokyo, where fiber-optic connections are widely available, hundreds of thousands of homes (or about five percent) are relying on only mobile in 2017.262
Figure 24. Percentage of data mobile-only homes in selected countries in 2017
Source: Deloitte Global survey of adults in seven countries – 1,096 in the US;
1,090 in Canada; 1,061 in Turkey; 1,118 in the UK; 1,097 in France; 1,082 in Spain; and 1,097 in Russia (survey conducted Aug.-Oct. 2017)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Turkey Canada US
Russia Spain
France UK
Why will so many homes be relying on mobile internet service alone in 2018? There will be many different reasons. Sometimes it is because mobile is the only form of data connection available, especially outside cities. Other factors – income, age, living alone, or using better and faster networks with bigger monthly data allowances – also seem to play a role. This tendency also follows a trend; many people have discontinued wired home phones, and the same shift is occurring in internet access.