4-quarter change. Per cent. 2004 Q1 – 2010 Q2

(1)

Monetary Policy Report 3/10

Charts

(2)

-10 -5 0 5 10 15

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

1) Weighted by GDP weights (PPP). See Economic Commentaries 8/2009 for an overview of countries included in the different regions

Sources: International Monetary Fund, Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

Chart 1.1 GDP in advanced economies and emerging market economies¹⁾. 4-quarter change. Per cent. 2004 Q1 – 2010 Q2

US Euro area

Emerging market economies Emerging market economies Asia

(3)

-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

Source: International Monetary Fund

Chart 1.2 Global imbalances. Current account as a percentage of world GDP.

1996 – 2009

US

Oil-exporting countries Germany and Japan

China and emerging market economies in Asia Rest of the world

(4)

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10

Spain Portugal Ireland Italy Greece

Chart 1.3 CDS premiums on sovereign debt. 5-year maturity.

Percentage points. 1 January 2008 – 21 October 2010

Source: Bloomberg L.P.

(5)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Jul-07 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11 Jul-12 Jul-13

US Euro area UK

Chart 1.4 Key rates and estimated forward rates as at 23 June 2010 and 21 October 2010.¹⁾ Per cent. 1 July 2007 – 31 December 2013²⁾

1) Broken lines show estimated forward rates as at 23 June 2010. Thin lines show forward rates as at 21 October 2010. Forward rates are based on Overnight Indexed Swap (OIS) rates 2) Daily figures from 1 July 2007 and quarterly figures as at 21 October 2010

Sources: Bloomberg L.P. and Norges Bank

(6)

0 2 4 6 8

Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10

US

Euro area

UK

Chart 1.5 Yield on 10-year government bonds. Per cent.

1 January 2000 – 21 October 2010

Source: Thomson Reuters

(7)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10

Money market rate Key policy rate

Bank lending rate (new residential mortgages) Average interest rate on loans to corporations

Chart 1.6 Key policy rate, money market rate¹⁾, weighted bank lending rates on new residential mortgages²⁾ and average lending rates to corporations³⁾. Per cent. 1 July 2007 – 21 October 2010

1) 3-month NIBOR (effective)

2) Interest rate on new residential mortgages of NOK 1m within 60% of purchase price with variable interest rate. Figures for the 20 largest banks, weighted according to market share 3) Non-financial corporations. 2007 Q2 – 2010 Q2

Sources: Norsk familieøkonomi AS, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

(8)

-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

1) Credit from domestic sources, C2

2) House prices to September. Credit growth to August

Sources: Statistics Norway, OPAK, the real estate industry (NEF, EFF, FINN.no and ECON Pöyry), OBOS and Norges Bank

House prices Credit to households

Chart 1.7 Credit to households ¹⁾and house prices.

12-month change. Per cent. January 2002 – September 2010²⁾

(9)

-2.5 0 2.5 5 7.5

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Chart 1.8 Consumer prices. 12-month change. Per cent.

January 2002 – September 2010

CPI CPI-ATE ¹⁾

CPIXE ²⁾ CPI-FW ³⁾

CPIM⁴⁾ 20 per cent trimmed mean

1) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products

2) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding temporary changes in energy prices. Real time figures.

See Staff Memo 7/2008 and 3/2009 from Norges Bank

3) CPI adjusted for frequency of price changes. See Economic commentaries 7/2009 from Norges Bank 4) Model-based indicator of underlying inflation. See Economic commentaries 6/2010 from Norges Bank and box on page 31

Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

(10)

0 2.5 5

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

1) Average of expectations of employer/employee organisations and economists (financial industry experts, macro analysts and academia)

Sources: TNS Gallup and Perduco

Expected inflation 5 years ahead Expected inflation 2 years ahead

Chart 1.9 Expected consumer price inflation 2 and 5 years ahead.¹⁾ Per cent. 2002 Q1 – 2010 Q3

(11)

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0

0 0.5 1 1.5 2

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

1) Based on swap rates

Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

Chart 1.10 5-year forward rate¹⁾differential 5 years ahead between Norway and the euro area. Percentage points. 1 January 2002 – 21 October 2010

(12)

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Variation Inflation target CPI

1) The moving average is calculated 10 years back

2) The band around the CPI is the variation in the CPI adjusted for tax changes and

excluding energy products in the average period, measured by +/- one standard deviation 3) CPI projections in this Report form the basis for this estimate

Chart 1.11 Inflation. Moving 10-year average¹⁾ and variation²⁾ in CPI³⁾. Per cent. 1980 – 2010

(13)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

1) Forward rates are based on money market rates and interest rate swaps Source: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

Chart 1.12 Three-month money market rates in the baseline scenario and estimated forward rates¹⁾. Trading partners. Per cent. 2008 Q1 – 2013 Q4

Estimated forward rates

Money market rates in the baseline scenario

(14)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Source: Norges Bank

Chart 1.13a Projected key policy rate in the baseline scenario with fan chart.

Per cent. 2008 Q1– 2013 Q4

30% 50% 70% 90%

(15)

-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Chart 1.13b Estimated output gap¹⁾ in the baseline scenario with fan chart.

Per cent. 2008 Q1 – 2013 Q4

30% 50% 70% 90%

1) The output gap measures the percentage deviation between mainland GDP and projected potential mainland GDP

Source: Norges Bank

(16)

-1 0 1 2 3 4 5

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Chart 1.13c Projected CPI in the baseline scenario with fan chart.

4-quarter change. Per cent. 2008 Q1 – 2013 Q4

30% 50% 70% 90%

(17)

-1 0 1 2 3 4 5

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Chart 1.13d Projected CPIXE¹⁾in the baseline scenario with fan chart.

1) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding temporary changes in energy prices. As from August 2008, CPIXE is a real time series. See Staff Memo 7/2008 and 3/2009 from Norges Bank Source: Norges Bank

30% 50% 70% 90%

(18)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Source: Norges Bank

Chart 1.14 Key policy rate in the baseline scenario in MPR 3/09, MPR 1/10, MPR 2/10 and MPR 3/10. Per cent. 2008 Q1 – 2013 Q4

MPR 3/09 MPR 1/10 MPR 2/10 MPR 3/10

(19)

-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 85

88 91 94 97 100 103 106

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

I-44, left-hand scale

3-month rate differential, right-hand scale

1) A rising curve denotes a stronger krone exchange rate Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

Chart 1.15 Three-month money market rate differential between Norway and trading partners and the import-weighted exchange rate index (I-44)¹⁾. Monthly- (historical) and quarterly figures (ahead). January 2002 – December 2013

(20)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

1) Norges Bank's projections from 2010 Q4 Source: Norges Bank

Chart 1.16 Key policy rate in the baseline scenario and key policy rate plus premiums in the Norwegian money market.¹⁾Per cent. 2008 Q1 – 2013 Q4

Key policy rate plus money market premium Key policy rate in the baseline scenario

(21)

-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

1) CPIXE: CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding temporary changes in energy prices.

From August 2008, CPIXE is a real time series. See Staff Memo 7/2008 and 3/2009 from Norges Bank

Source: Norges Bank

Chart 1.17 Projected inflation¹⁾and output gap in the baseline scenario.

Per cent. 2008 Q1 – 2013 Q4

Output gap (left-hand scale) CPIXE (right-hand scale)

(22)

-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Relative wages

Relative consumer prices

Chart 1.18 Real exchange rate. Deviation from mean over the period 1970 – 2009. Per cent. 1970 – 2010¹⁾

1) The squares show the average so far in 2010. A rising curve indicates weaker competitiveness

Sources: Statistics Norway, Technical Reporting Committee on Income Settlements, Ministry of Finance and Norges Bank

(23)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Source: Norges Bank

Chart 1.19a Key policy rate. Per cent. 2008 Q1 – 2016 Q4

Criterion 1 Criteria 1&2 Criteria 1,2&3 Baseline scenario

(24)

-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Source: Norges Bank

Chart 1.19b Output gap. Per cent. 2008 Q1 – 2016 Q4

(25)

1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

1) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding temporary changes in energy prices. As from August 2008, CPIXE is a real time series. See Staff Memo 7/2008 and 3/2009 from Norges Bank Source: Norges Bank

Chart 1.19c CPIXE¹⁾. 12-month change. Per cent. 2008 Q1 – 2016 Q4

(26)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

2008 2009 2010 2011

Key policy rate Taylor rule Growth rule

Rule with foreign interest rates

Chart 1.20 Key policy rate and calculations based on simple monetary policy rules¹⁾.Per cent. 2008 Q1 – 2011 Q2

1) The calculations are based on Norges Bank's projections for the output gap, consumer prices adjusted for tax changes and excluding temporary changes in energy prices

(CPIXE) and three-month money market rates. To ensure comparability with the key policy rate, the simple rules are adjusted for risk premiums in three-month money market rates

Source: Norges Bank

(27)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Estimated forward rates

Money market rates in the baseline scenario

1) Forward rates are based on money market rates and interest rate swaps. The blue band shows the highest and lowest forward rates in the period 8 October – 21 October 2010 Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

Chart 1.21 Three-month money market rates in the baseline scenario and estimated forward rates¹⁾. Per cent. 2008 Q1 – 2013 Q4

(28)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

90 % confidence interval Key policy rate

1) Interest rate movements are explained by developments in inflation, mainland GDP growth, wage growth and key rates among trading partners. The equation is estimated over the period 1999 Q1 – 2010 Q3. See Staff Memo 3/2008 for further discussion

Source: Norges Bank

Chart 1.22 Key policy rate and interest rate developments that follow from Norges Bank's average pattern of interest rate setting.¹⁾

Per cent. 2002 Q1 – 2011 Q2

(29)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Source: Norges Bank

Chart 1.23a Key policy rate in the baseline scenario and in the alternative scenarios. Per cent. 2008 Q1 – 2013 Q4

Baseline scenario

Persistently low global growth Increased price and wage inflation

30% 50% 70% 90%

(30)

-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Source: Norges Bank

Chart 1.23b Output gap in the baseline scenario and in the alternative scenarios. Per cent. 2008 Q1 – 2013 Q4

Baseline scenario

30% 50% 70% 90%

(31)

0 1 2 3 4 5

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Baseline scenario

30% 50% 70% 90%

1) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding temporary changes in energy prices. As from August 2008, CPIXE is a real time series. See Staff Memo 7/2008 and 3/2009 from Norges Bank

Source: Norges Bank

Chart 1.23c CPIXE¹⁾ in the baseline scenario and in the alternative scenarios.

(32)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

1) The Executive Board's decision of 27 October 2010 is not shown in the chart Source: Norges Bank

Strategy period

3/07 1/08

Key policy rate 2/08

Chart 1.24 Interval for the key policy rate at the end of each strategy period, actual developments¹⁾ and projected key policy rate in the baseline scenario.

Per cent. January 2008 – December 2013

3/08

17 Dec 08

1/09 2/09 3/09 1/10 2/10 3/10

(33)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Chart 1 Key policy rate in the baseline scenario in MPR 2/10 with fan chart and key policy rate in the baseline scenario in MPR 3/10 (red line).

Per cent. Quarterly figures. 2008 Q1 – 2013 Q4

30% 50% 70% 90%

Source: Norges Bank

(34)

-2 -1 0 1 2

2010Q4 2011Q2 2011Q4 2012Q2 2012Q4 2013Q2 2013Q4

Source: Norges Bank

Chart 2 Factors behind changes in the interest rate forecast since MPR 2/10.

Accumulated contribution. Percentage points. 2010 Q4 – 2013 Q4

Oil investment and net exports Exchange rate and foreign interest rates

Prices and costs Change in the interest rate forecast

(35)

2 3 4 5 6 7

US Euro area UK Norway

Chart 1 Long-term nominal interest rates. 5-year 5 years ahead.

Government bond yields. Per cent. 1 July 2007 – 21 October 2010

(36)

0 1 2 3 4

US, break-even US, inflation swap

Consensus Forecasts October 2010

Chart 2 Inflation expectations. US. 5-year 5 years ahead.

Per cent. 1 July 2007 – 21 October 2010

(37)

0 1 2 3 4

Euro area, break-even Euro area, inflation swap

Consensus Forecasts October 2010

Chart 3 Inflation expectations. Euro area. 5-year 5 years ahead.

1 July 2007 – 21 October 2010

(38)

0 1 2 3 4

US Euro area

Chart 4 Real interest rates¹⁾. US and the euro area. 5-year 5 years ahead.

Per cent. 1 July 2007 – 21 October 2010

1) Real rates as calculated from index-linked bonds Source: Thomson Reuters

(39)

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008

Chart 5 Actual and predicted 10-year US government bond.

Percent. 1983 Q1 – 2010 Q3

Actual

Predicted by model 21 October 2010

Sources: Bloomberg L.P., Norges Bank and Thomson Reuters

(40)

100 110 120 130 140 150

100 110 120 130 140

150 USD EUR GBP JPY BRL CNY

Chart 2.1 Effective exchange rates.¹⁾ Index, 1 January 2007 = 100.

1 January 2007 – 21 October 2010

70 80 90

2007 2008 2009 2010

1) A rising curve denotes a stronger exchange rate Sources: Bank of England, JPMorgan and Norges Bank

(41)

94 96 98 100 102

94 96 98 100

102 US Euro area UK Japan Germany Sweden

Chart 2.2 GDP in advanced economies. Index, 2008 Q1 = 100.

2005 Q1 – 2010 Q2

90 92 94

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

(42)

1 2 3 4

1 2 3

4 US Euro area UK Sweden

Chart 2.3 Consumer prices excluding food and energy.¹⁾12-month change.

Per cent. January 2005 – September 2010

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 -1 0 -1

0

1) HICP exluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco for the euro area, UK and Sweden Source: Thomson Reuters

(43)

2 3 4 5 6

US Euro area

UK Sweden

Chart 2.4 Wage growth in advanced economies. 12-month change. Per cent.

-1 0 1

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

(44)

2 3 4 5

2 3 4

5 US Euro area UK Sweden

Chart 2.5 Long-term survey-based inflation expectations.¹⁾ January 2005 – October 2010

0 1 0

1

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

1) US: University of Michigan 5-year inflation expectations. UK: YouGov/Citigroup inflation expectations for the next 5-10 years. Euro area: ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) 5-year inflation expectations. Sweden: Prospera/SCB 5 -year inflation expectations Source: Thomson Reuters

(45)

50 75 100 125 150

100 150 200 250 300

Chart 2.6 Oil price (Brent Blend), prices for Norwegian petroleum exports¹⁾

(USD/barrel) and aluminium prices (USD/metric tons). Index, January 2002 = 100.

January 2002 – May 2013

Aluminium (left-hand scale) Oil price (right-hand scale) Petroleum price (right-hand scale) Futures

Futures as at MPR 2/10

0 25 50

0 50 100

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

1) Weighted average of Norwegian crude oil and gas exports Sources: Statistics Norway,Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

(46)

10 15 20 25

Chart 2.7 Prices for coal, oil and natural gas. USD per MMBTU.

January 2002 – August 2013

Coal ¹⁾

Oil ¹⁾

Gas UK ¹⁾

Gas US ¹⁾

Gas Russia Gas Norway ²⁾

Futures

0 5

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

1) For October 2010 calculated as daily average.

2) Calculation of future gas prices for Norway based on assumptions in 2011 National Budget Sources: IMF, Thomson Reuters, Statistics Norway, Ministry of Finance and Norges Bank

(47)

0 2.5 5 7.5

CPI CPI-ATE CPIXE

Chart 2.8 CPI, CPI-ATE¹⁾ and CPIXE²⁾. 12-month change. Per cent.

January 2007 – June 2011³⁾

-2.5 -2.5

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

2) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding temporary changes in energy prices. Real time figures. See Staff Memo 7/2008 and 3/2009 from Norges Bank

3) Projections for October 2010 – June 2011 (broken lines). Monthly figures to March 2011, then quarterly figures

(48)

0 2.5 5 7.5

Chart 2.9 CPI-ATE¹⁾. Total and by supplier sector.

12-month change. Per cent. January 2007 – June 2011²⁾

CPI-ATE Imported consumer goods Domestically produced goods and services ³⁾

-2.5 0

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

2) Projections for October 2010 – June 2011 (broken lines). Monthly figures to March 2010, then quarterly figures

3) Norges Bank's estimates

(49)

2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Chart 2.10 Unit labour costs in mainland Norway¹⁾ and prices for domestically produced goods and services in the CPI-ATE.²⁾

Four-quarter change. Per cent. 2002 Q1 – 2011 Q2²⁾

Unit labour costs

Prices for domestically produced goods and services

-1 0 1

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

1) Projections for 2010 Q3 – 2011 Q2 (broken lines)

2) Norges Bank's estimates. Projections for 2010 Q4 – 2011 Q2 (broken lines) Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

(50)

99 100 101

Chart 2.11 Indicator of external price impulses to imported consumer goods measured in foreign currency. Index, 2007 Q1 = 100. 2007 Q1 – 2011 Q2¹⁾

98 98

Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11

1) Projections for 2010 Q4 – 2011 Q2 (broken lines) Source: Norges Bank

(51)

2 3 4

MPR 3/10

SAM

Chart 2.12 CPI-ATE¹⁾. Actual figures, baseline scenario and projections by SAM²⁾ with fan chart. Four-quarter change. Per cent. 2009 Q1 – 2011 Q2³⁾

30% 50% 70% 90%

0 1

Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11

1) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products 2) System for averaging models for short-term forecasting 3) Projections for 2010 Q4 – 2011 Q2 (broken lines)

(52)

0 2.5 5 7.5

Chart 1 Consumer prices. 12-month change. Per cent.

CPI CPI-ATE ¹⁾

CPIXE ²⁾ CPI-FW ³⁾

CPIM⁴⁾ 20 per cent trimmed mean

-2.5 -2.5

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

2) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding temporary changes in energy prices. CPIXE is a real time series. See Staff Memo 7/2008 and 3/2009 from Norges Bank

3) CPI adjusted for frequency of price changes. See box Economic Commentaries 7/2009 from Norges Bank 4) Model-based indicator of underlying inflation. See Economic Commentaries 6/2010 from Norges Bank Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

(53)

1 2 3 4 5

Chart 2 CPIM¹⁾ and 25-month centered moving average of the CPI.

12-month change. Per cent. January 2002 – September 2010

CPIM

25-month centered moving average of the CPI

0 1 0

1

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

1) Model-based indicator of underlying inflation. See Economic Commentaries 6/2010 from Norges Bank

(54)

0 2 4

Regional network Mainland GDP growth

Chart 2.13 GDP mainland Norway¹⁾ and Norges Bank's regional network's indicator of change in production past three months and expected change in production next six months. Quarterly change. Per cent. 2002 Q3 – 2011 Q2²⁾

-2 -2

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

1) Seasonally adjusted. Volume

2) Last observation in the regional network is September 2010. Last GDP observation is 2010 Q2. Projections for 2010 Q3 – 2011 Q2 (broken line)

Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank's regional network

(55)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

Mainland GDP MPR 3/10 SAM

Chart 2.14 Mainland GDP. Actual figures, baseline scenario and projections from SAM¹⁾with fan chart. Four-quarter change. Volume.

Seasonally adjusted. Per cent. 2009 Q1 – 2011 Q2²⁾

30% 50% 70% 90%

-3 -2 -1

Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11

1) System for Averaging Models for short-term forecasting 2) Projections for 2010 Q3 – 2011 Q2 (broken lines)

(56)

20 30 40 50 60 70

Capacity constraints Labour supply

Chart 2.15 Capacity constraints and labour supply.¹⁾ Per cent.

0 10 20

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

1) Share of contacts that will have some or considerable problems accommodating an (unexpected/expected) increase in demand, and the share of contacts where production is constrained by labour supply

Source: Norges Bank's regional network

(57)

0 3 6 9 12

0 3 6 9 12 Chart 2.16 Exports from mainland Norway. Annual change. Volume.

Per cent. 1992 – 2011¹⁾

1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 -9

-6 -3

-9 -6 -3

1) Projections for 2010 and 2011

(58)

-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4

Manufacturing Retail trade Services

Chart 2.17 Investment plans for next 12 months compared with past 12 months. Index.¹⁾ October 2002 – September 2010

-4 -3 -4

-3

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

1) The scale runs from -5 to +5, where -5 denotes a sharp fall and +5 denotes strong growth. See article "Norges Bank's regional network" in Economic Bulletin 2/2009 for further information

(59)

0 6 12 18 24 30

0 6 12 18 24 30 Chart 2.18 Business investment in mainland Norway. Annual change.

Volume. Per cent. 1992 – 2011¹⁾

1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 -18

-12 -6

-18 -12 -6

1) Projections for 2010 and 2011

(60)

2 4 6 8

Household real disposable income Household consumption

Chart 2.19 Household real disposable income¹⁾ and consumption²⁾. Annual change. Per cent. 2002 – 2013³⁾

0 0

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

1) Excluding dividend income

2) Includes consumption in non-profit organisations. Volume 3) Projections for 2010 – 2013 (broken line)

(61)

-5 0 5 10 15

-5 0 5 10

15 Saving ratio excl. dividend income Saving ratio, adjusted ²⁾

Net lending ratio excl. dividend income

Chart 2.20 Household saving and net lending as a share of disposable income. Per cent. 1992 – 2013¹⁾

-15 -10 -15

-10

1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012

1) Projections for 2010 – 2013 (broken lines)

2) Adjusted for estimated reinvested dividend income for 2000 – 2005 and redemption/reduction of equity capital for 2006 – 2013

(62)

40 60 80 100 120 140

800 1000 1200

Chart 2.21 Housing starts¹⁾ and order intake for residential construction.²⁾ 1992 Q1 – 2010 Q2

Housing starts (left-hand scale) Order intake (right-hand scale)

0 20 40

400 600

1992 1996 2000 2004 2008

1) In 1000s of square meters. Seasonally adjusted

2) Value index deflated by the price index for housing investment in the national accounts.

Deferred two quarters forward

(63)

0 1 2

Regional network

Quarterly National Accounts

Chart 2.22 Employment growth¹⁾ and Norges Bank's regional network's indicator of change in employment and expected change in employment next three months.²⁾ Quarterly change. Per cent. 2002 Q3 – 2011 Q2³⁾

-1 -1

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

1) Seasonally adjusted

2) See article "Norges Bank's regional network" in Economic Bulletin 2/2009 for further information 3) Latest observation in the regional network is September 2010. Latest

observation in the Quarterly National Accounts is 2010 Q2.

Projections for 2010 Q3 – 2011 Q2 (broken line)

Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank's regional network

(64)

100 105 110

1991 Q4 2003 Q3 2009 Q3 ²⁾

Chart 2.23 Developments in mainland productivity after a business cycle trough. GDP per person-hour. Seasonally adjusted quarterly figures. Index¹⁾

95

95 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

1) The index is set at 100 in the quarter when capacity utilisation was at trough.

Series labels refer to the peak quarter.

2) Projections for 2010 Q3 – 2011 Q2 (broken line) Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

(65)

71 72 73 74 75

Chart 2.24 Actual labour force participation and change in labour force participation given demographic developments.¹⁾ As a percentage of the population 15 – 74 years. Seasonally adjusted quarterly figures.

1992 Q1 – 2010 Q2

68 69 70

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

1) Average total labour force participation conditional on labour force participation in every age group being kept unchanged on the 2007 level Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

Actual labour force participation Labour force participation given demographical developments

(66)

6 8 10 12 14

Chart 2.25 Net inward migration. Average past four quarters. In 1000s.

2002 Q1 – 2010 Q2

0 2 4

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Source: Statistics Norway

(67)

2 3 4 5

Chart 2.26 Registered unemployment. Percentage of labour force.

Seasonally adjusted. 2002 Q1 – 2011 Q2¹⁾

0 1

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

1) Projections for 2010 Q4 – 2011 Q2 (broken line)

Sources: Norwegian Labour and Welfare Administration, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

(68)

4 5 6 7

4 5 6

7 Manufacturing Building and construction

Retail trade Public sector

Total

Chart 2.27 Expected annual wage growth each year. Per cent.

October 2002 – September 2010

2 3

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

(69)

60 90 120 150 180

Chart 2.28 Structural, non-oil deficit and expected real return on

the Government Pension Fund Global. In billions of 2011 NOK. 2001 – 2013¹⁾

Structural, non-oil deficit Expected real return

0 30 0

30

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

1) Projections for 2010 – 2013 (broken line) Sources: Ministry of Finance and Norges Bank

(70)

80 120 160

Chart 2.29 Non-oil budget deficit. In billions of NOK. 2002 – 2011¹⁾

0 40

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

1) Projections for 2010 and 2011 Source: Ministry of Finance

(71)

60 90 120 150

Chart 2.30 Petroleum investment. Constant 2007 prices. In billions of NOK.

1992 – 2013¹⁾

0 30

1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012

1) Projections for 2010 – 2013