EXECUTIVE BOARD MEETING
24 JANUARY 2018
BASED ON INFORMATION IN THE PERIOD TO 23 JANUARY 2017
Output gap Key policy rate
Monetary Policy Report 4/17, overall picture
-1 0 1 2 3
-1 0 1 2 3
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
2 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
0 1 2 3 4
0 1 2 3 4
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
85 90 95 100 105 110
85 90 95 100 105 110
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Inflation (CPI-ATE) Exchange rate index (I-44)
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 1 2 3 4 5
Global US Euro area
WEO (October) MPR 4/17
WEO (January)
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 1 2 3 4 5
Global US Euro area
WEO (October) MPR 4/17
WEO (January)
Expected global GDP growth
3
Projections from the IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO). Percent
2019 2018
Sources: IMF and Norges Bank
PMI for trading partners
30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65
30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65
07 09 11 13 15 17
Services
Manufacturing
30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65
30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65
07 09 11 13 15 17
Services
Manufacturing
4
25 main trading partners. January 2007 – December 2017
Emerging economies Advanced economies1)
1) Data for the US included from May 2007 (manufacturing) and October 2009 (services).
Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank
Core inflation for selected trading partners
5
Twelve -month percentage change. January 2010 – December 2017
0 1 2 3 4
0 1 2 3 4
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
US UK Euro area Sweden
Source: Thomson Reuters
6
Policy rates and estimated forward rates
1). Percent. January 2010 –
December 2020. 22 January 2018 (solid line) and MPR 4/17 (broken line)
-1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5
-1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 US
UK
Euro area Sweden
1) OIS rates.
Sources: Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank
Policy rate expectations
Three-month money market premium
7
Percentage points. 1 January 2016 – 22 January 2018
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8
Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18 Norwegian money market premium
Projections Q1 MPR 4/17 Average to date 2018 Q1
MPR 4/17
Source: Norges Bank
Crude oil spot and futures prices
8
USD/barrel. Daily data. January 2010 – December 2020
1)0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Spot price Futures prices
Futures prices MPR 4/17
1) Future prices (broken lines) are the averages of futures prices for the period 16 – 22 January 2018.
Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank
Import-weighted exchange rate index (I-44)
9
1 July 2016 – 22 January 2018
Source: Norges Bank
100
102
104
106
108
110 100
102
104
106
108
110
Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 I-44
Projection Q1 MPR 4/17 2018 Q1 to date
Stronger NOK
MPR 4/17
Mainland GDP with forecasts from SAM 1)
10
Four-quarter percentage change. 2015 Q1 – 2017 Q3.
Projections for 2018 Q1
0 1 2 3 4
0 1 2 3 4
2015 2016 2017 2018
Mainland GDP Regional network
Regional network, expected change SAM, MPR 4/17
SAM, 22 January 2018
1) System for Averaging short-term Models.
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Goods consumption index
11
Seasonally adjusted volume index . March 2015 – November 2017
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
120 125 130 135 140
120 125 130 135 140
Mar-15 Sep-15 Mar-16 Sep-16 Mar-17 Sep-17
Consumer confidence
12
Net values. Trend indicator for households. Consumer confidence index. May 2007 – December 2017
-30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50
-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Consumer confidence index (l.h.s.) Kantar TNS trend indicator (r.h.s.)
Sources: Opinion, TNS Kantar and Norges Bank
House prices
13
Percent. January 2015 – December 2017
-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20
-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4
Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17
Seasonally adjusted monthly change, old (l.h.s.) Seasonally adjusted monthly change, new (l.h.s.) Twelve-month change, old (r.h.s.)
Twelve-month change, new (r.h.s.)
Sources: Eiendomsverdi, Finn.no and Real Estate Norway
House prices in selected cities 1)
14
After data revisions. Twelve-month change. January 2012 – December 2017
-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Oslo Bergen Trondheim Stavanger region
1) After the data revisions, the index shows the Stavanger region instead of Stavanger municipality.
Sources: Eiendomsverdi, Finn.no and Real Estate Norway
15
New home sales 1) and approved housing starts
Number of dwellings. Six-month moving average.
January 2003 – December 2017
1) New home sales from ECON Nye boliger, which cover all projects with more than 15 units. The series is chained back in time with data for the increase in new home sales for eastern Norway up until August 2013.
Sources: Economics Norway, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
New home sales (l.h.s.)
Approved housing starts (r.h.s.)
Bank lending to households
16
Change from previous quarter. 2017 Q3 – 2018 Q1
Source: Norges Bank’s Survey of Bank Lending
-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q3 Q4 Q1
-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5
Actual change Expected change
Increased demand Easier to borrow
Credit standards Demand
Unemployment
17
Percentage of the labour force. Seasonally adjusted. January 2012 – October/December 2017. Projections for January/March 2018
Sources: NAV (Norwegian Labour and Welfare Administration), Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
1 2 3 4 5
1 2 3 4 5
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
NAV unemployment LFS unemployment Projections MPR 4/17
Employment 1)
In thousands. Seasonally adjusted. January 2014 – September/October 2017
18 2 550 2 600 2 650 2 700 2 750 2 800 2 850
2 550 2 600 2 650 2 700 2 750 2 800 2 850
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Employment, quarterly national accounts Employment, LFS
1) LFS (Labour Force Survey) and the quarterly national accounts normally show different levels of employment. This is because the LFS only counts permanent residents, while the quarterly national accounts also include temporary residents.
Source: Statistics Norway
Inflation
19
Twelve-month percentage change. January 2012 – December 2017.
Projections to March 2018
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 1 2 3 4 5
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
CPI CPI-ATE
Projection MPR 4/17
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
CPI-ATE by supplier sector
20
Twelve-month percentage change. January 2012 – December 2017.
Projections to March 2018
-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Imported consumer goods
Domestically produced goods and services Projections MPR 4/17
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
CPI-ATE with forecasts from SAM 1)
21
Four-quarter percentage change. 2014 Q1 – 2017 Q4.
Projections to 2018 Q4
0 1 2 3 4
0 1 2 3 4
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
CPI-ATE MPR 4/17 SAM MPR 4/17 SAM 10 January
1) System for Averaging short-term Models.
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
EXECUTIVE BOARD MEETING
24 JANUARY 2018
BASED ON INFORMATION IN THE PERIOD TO 23 JANUARY 2017
