1
Executive Board meeting
16 August 2006
Norges Bank
2
-0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
-0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0
GDP growth among trading partners (1)
Seasonally adjusted volume growth on previous quarter.
Per cent. 2002 Q1 – 2006 Q2
Sources: EcoWin / National statistical offices and Norges Bank US
Euro area Japan
3
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0
GDP growth among trading partners (2)
Seasonally adjusted volume growth on previous quarter.
Per cent. 2002 Q1 – 2006 Q2
Sources: EcoWin / National statistical offices and Norges Bank UK
Sweden
18 Trading partners
Norges Bank
4
50 100 150 200 250
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug 80
90 100 110 120 130 140
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Equities and metals
Indices. 1 January 2006 = 100. Daily figures. 1 January – 14 August 2006
Aluminium Nickel
Equities Metals
Norway Euro area
US
Japan
Sources: STOXX, S&P500, Nikkei, Oslo Stock Exchange, FTSE and EcoWin Zinc
Copper
5
CPI/HICP
12-month change. January 1997 – July 2006
-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5
Source: EcoWin / National statistics US
Euro area
Japan UK
Norges Bank
6
CPI/HICP core
12-month change. January 1997 – July 2006
-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4
Source: EcoWin / National statistics UK1)
US2)
Euro area1)
Japan3)
1)HICP excl. energy, food, alcohol and tobacco 2)CPI excl. food and energy 3)CPI excl. fresh food
7
Actual and expected key rates
as per IR 2/06 and 14 August 2006
Sources: Reuters and Norges Bank
0
1 2 3 4 5 6
Aug 03 Aug 04 Aug 05 Aug 06 Aug 07 Aug 08 Aug 09 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
US
Euro area 14 August 2006
IR 2/06 (28 June) Sweden
UK
Norway
Norges Bank
8
Oil price Brent Blend and futures prices
Daily figures. USD per barrel. 1 January 2002 – 14 August 2006
15 25 35 45 55 65 75 85
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
15 25 35 45 55 65 75 85
14 August 2006Sources: Telerate, IPE and Norges Bank 22 June IR 2/06
9
Oil production in Iraq, Russia, Nigeria and Venezuela
Million barrels per day. Monthly figures. January 2001– July 2006
6 7 8 9 10
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
0 1 2 3 4
Source: International Energy Agency Iraq
(right-hand scale) Venezuela (right-hand scale) Nigeria
(right-hand scale)
Russia (left-hand scale)
Norges Bank
10
Electricity price NOK/MWh. Nord Pool
January 2002 – July 2006. Futures prices. 2006 Q3 – 2008 Q4
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
Sources: Nord Pool and Norges Bank 15 August 2006
22 June 2006
11
3-month interest rate differential and import-weighted exchange rate (I-44) 1)
January 2002 – December 2009 85
88 91 94 97 100
103 -1
0 1 2 3 4 5
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Sources: Bloomberg and Norges Bank I-44
(left-hand scale)
Weighted interest rate differential (right-hand scale)
28 June 06 (IR 2/06) 14 August 06
1) A rising curve denotes an appreciation of the krone.
Norges Bank
12
-2 0 2 4 6
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
-2 0 2 4 6
Different indicators of inflation
12-month rise. Per cent. January 2002 – July 2006
Source: Statistics Norway Weighted median
CPI-ATE1) 20 per cent trimmed mean
CPI
1) CPI-ATE: CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products. A further adjustment is made for the estimated effect of reduced maximum day-care rates from January 2006.
13
-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
Jul 03 Jan 04 Jul 04 Jan 05 Jul 05 Jan 06 Jul 06
-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
CPI-ATE 1)
Total and by supplier sector
2). Actual inflation and projections from IR 2/06.
12-month rise. Per cent. July 2003 - July 2006
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank Goods and services produced in Norway (0.7)
Imported consumer goods (0.3) CPI-ATE
1) CPI-ATE: CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products. A further adjustment is made for the estimated effect of reduced maximum day-care rates from January 2006.
2) Norges Bank's calculations.
Norges Bank
14
Unemployed
In thousands. Seasonally adjusted. January 2001 – July 2006
50 75 100 125
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
50 75 100 125
LFS unemployment1) Registered unemployed and
on labour market programmes
Registered unemployed
Sources: Statistics Norway and the new Labour and Welfare Service (NAV)
1)The restructuring of the LFS has resulted in a break in the time series between 2005 and 2006
15
Credit growth
Total credit, mainland Norway and enterprises (C3).
Domestic credit to households (C2). 12-month change. Per cent
-5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
-5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Source: Norges Bank Households
Total enterprise sector credit
Total credit
Norges Bank
16
Housing market
January 2001 – July 2006
Sources: Statistics Norway, Norwegian Association of Real Estate Agents (NEF), Association of Real Estate Agency Firms (EFF), ECON and Finn.no
-5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
-5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
House prices (NEF) (12-month rise. Per cent) Housing starts
(number of 1000s in the last 12 months)
17
Business tendency survey
Indicator of resource shortages. Smoothed. Per cent. 1983 Q1 – 2006 Q2
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
1983 1988 1993 1998 2003
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Source: Statistics Norway
Norges Bank
18
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Sep 06 Mar 07 Sep 07 Mar 08 Sep 08 Mar 09 Sep 09 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Sight deposit rate in the baseline scenario and market expectations concerning the sight deposit rate 1)
Per cent. 2006 Q3 – 2009 Q4
1) Derived from estimated forward rates. A credit risk premium and a technical difference of 0.20 percentage point were deducted in calculating the sight deposit rate. The grey shaded interval shows the highest and lowest interest rates in the market's sight deposit rate scenario in the period 1 – 14 Aug 06
Source: Norges Bank Market expectations concerning the
sight deposit rate
Market 14 August 2006 Baseline scenario IR 2/06
Market IR 2/06
19
Sight deposit rate in baseline scenario with fan chart
Per cent. 2004 Q1 – 2009 Q4
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
30% 50% 70% 90%
Source: Norges Bank
Norges Bank
20
