EXECUTIVE BOARD 22 OCTOBER 2014

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EXECUTIVE BOARD

22 OCTOBER 2014

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2

Trading partners (25 TPs)

Sources: IMF, Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank * Projections for 50.5 percent of the countries from the IMF WEO update in July, the remaining from IMF WEO in April

0 1 2 3 4 5

2014 2015

MPR 3/14

IMF WEO October IMF WEO update July*

IMF WEO April

40 45 50 55 60

2010 2012 2014

Advanced economies Emerging economies

PMI for manufacturing

Advanced and emerging economies among 25 TPs. January 2010 – September 2014

Projected GDP growth

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90 92 94 96 98 100 102 104 106 108

2008 2010 2012 2014

Euro area Sweden UK US Japan

Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

90 92 94 96 98 100 102 104 106 108

2008 2010 2012 2014

Germany Italy Spain France

GDP

Seasonally adjusted volume index. 2008 Q1 = 100. 2008 Q1 – 2014 Q2

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Inflation in G-20 countries

Consumer price inflation. January 2009 – August 2014

-2 0 2 4

2009 2011 2013

Core inflation Inflation

Sources: Thomson Reuters, IMF and Norges Bank

0 2 4 6 8

2009 2011 2013

Inflation Core inflation

Advanced economies excl. Japan Emerging economies

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Inflation

Twelve-month change. Percent. January 2000 – September 2014

¹⁾

5

-2 0 2 4 6

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

UK Euro area

Sweden US

1) To end-August 2014 for US Source: Thomson Reuters

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Selected equity indices

January 2013 = 100.

1 January 2013 – 20 October 2014

6

80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150

2013 2014

US

Emerging economies Europe

Premiums on corporate bonds with a low credit rating

Basis points. 1 January 2013 – 20 October 2014

Sources: Bloomberg and Thomson Reuters

200 300 400 500 600

2013 2014

US

Europe

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Yields on 10-year government bonds

7

Percent. 1 January 2010 – 20 October 2014

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Germany Italy Spain UK US

Source: Bloomberg

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Key rates

Actual and expected. Percent. 1 January 2007 – 1 October 2016

8

-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

US

Euro area UK

20 October 2014

Source: Bloomberg and Norges Bank

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Money market rates

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2

2015 2016 2017

MPR 3/14 20 October 2014

Average of expected money market rates among trading partners.

Percent. 2015 Q1 – 2017 Q4

Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank 9

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Commodity prices

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

Food Metals Oil price

The Economist commodity index. Weekly figures. USD. Index, January 2005=100. January 2005 – October 2014

¹⁾

10 1) Last observation is 17 October 2014

Source: Thomson Reuters

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Oil price (Brent Blend) and price of Norwegian petroleum exports ¹⁾

USD per barrel. Daily figures. 3 January 2000 – October 2018

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11

0 40 80 120 160

2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018

Spot Futures

Cut-off MPR 3/14 Petroleum exports

1) Weighted average of Norwegian crude oil and gas exports 2) Last observation for oil price is 20 October 2014, USD 84.84 Sources: Statistics Norway, Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank

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Oil price and the exchange rate (I-44)

1 January 2014 – 21 October 2014

80 90 100 110 120 90

91 92 93 94 95 96

Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14

I-44 (l.h.s., inverted) Oil price (r.h.s.)

Sources: Bloomberg and Norges Bank 12

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GDP for mainland Norway

Four-quarter change. Volume. Seasonally adjusted. Percent. 2012 Q1– 2014 Q4

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

2012 2013 2014

GDP, mainland Norway SAM in MPR 3/14

SAM 10 October MPR 3/14

Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

13 30% 50% 70% 90%

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Petroleum investment

Constant 2010 prices. In billions of NOK. 2000 - 2017

14 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

0 50 100 150 200 250

2000 2004 2008 2012 2016

MPR 3/14

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0 50 100 150 200 250

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Structural non-oil deficit 4 percent real return

15

Structural non-oil deficit and expected real return

Constant 2015 prices. In billions of NOK. 2001 - 2015

Source: Ministry of Finance

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Real underlying spending growth in government budget

Percent. 2001 - 2015

16

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Average

2001-2013

Source: Ministry of Finance

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Sources: Statistics Norway and NAV 17

2300 2400 2500 2600 2700

2012 2013 2014

Unemployment

Percentage of labour force.

Seasonally adjusted

LFS employment

In thousands of employed persons.

Seasonally adjusted

1 2 3 4

2008 2010 2012 2014

NAV LFS

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Index of household consumption of goods

Seasonally adjusted. Volume. January 2012 – August 2014

18

110 115 120 125 130 135 140

Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14

Source: Statistics Norway

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House prices

Percent. January 2011 – September 2014

Sources: Eiendomsmeglerforetakenes forening (Eff), Finn.no and Eiendomsverdi

2011 2012 2013 2014

-10 0 10 20

-1 0 1 2

Seasonally adjusted monthly change (l.h.s.) Twelve-month change (r.h.s.)

19

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-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q2 Q3 Q4

-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60

Credit standards

²⁾

Market share Lending margins Total demand

Norges Bank’s survey of bank lending

Household credit demand, credit standards and lending margins Net percentage balances

¹⁾

1) Net percentage balances are calculated by weighting together the responses in the survey. The blue bar shows reported developments for the relevant quarter. The red diamonds show expected developments for that quarter

2) Negative net percentage balances denote tighter credit standards

Source: Norges Bank 20

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CPI-ATE. Total and by supplier sector

21

Twelve-month change. Percent. January 2012 – December 2014

-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4

2012 2013 2014

Domestically produced goods and services Imported consumer goods

CPI-ATE

MPR 3/14

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CPI-ATE

Four-quarter change. Percent. 2012 Q1 – 2014 Q4

0 1 2 3 4

2012 2013 2014

CPI-ATE MPR 3/14

SAM in MPR 3/14 SAM 10 October

22 30% 50% 70% 90%

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23

Key policy rate

Probability distribution from MPR 3/14. Percent. 2008 Q1– 2017 Q4

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Strategy interval:1-2 percent

Source: Norges Bank

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