Deterministic seismic hazard assessments through hybrid ground motion simulation: Case studies for Wenchuan, China and Izmir, Turkey

(1)

Deterministic seismic hazard assessments through hybrid

ground motion simulation

Case studies for Wenchuan, China and zmir, Turkey Louise Wedderkopp Bjerrum

Dissertation for the degree philosophiae doctor (PhD) at the University of Bergen

June 2011

(2)

(3)

Preface

!"

"

# $ %##" &' (# # #& "

# ##&&# # '&&#

(& & ) & # # #"#"

## ##* ( ( +# &#+"

## (&' # #(

" ## # , - ".

/#' 0 +' & #&#&

(&& (# && #"

#&&"

+ # 1#( ,' & ( 23 %# $ + $ 4 3 5 )&

6 ! ( # &

( &&*"#

&* 7* ' "

8 # # + 9 "

' # " # &

#* 7* "6&&'

& &# "

6&&'#& &#7* # ' &### "

& (& 7* '#&& (2 -&* 64 :"-&* ;<&!"

:/ ) ' &==

(4)

(5)

Acknowledgements

&& ( &

& &&&"

6 & & > ': 1?&&

-&%< ' &#

" & & 0 % &(&

& ' &7* (&"&' # & & ( &

* $&@& 7* ' " & & - 1 ( & # #"&&'

& & ; & /& ' ; > ' 1& $&&' &

' - A' 3 ()< >&' > & :

%) & ; & $ %##

#' && ##&"

& $ %##' # #& "&' #

& ( 3 %# $ + $ -&* 6 # &"

&( # ' ; & /& ' ; > ' $ & ; 5

> B(" - C C # # &'

& & ##&6 ##"

((& ##

# #(# $

%##"&&$&D ' &'

;'%)&-&' D&& "&' & > &

=="

(6)

3 " &

24 & ##

& #' "$#&&&

& > &' - B <<)' % >&

&> " 8& 3 &" 6 &&' - C C E& " #'

# ( )& " board gamers/lunch eaters D &&' $ F# ' G&H $ I' > B('

%*5$ &;5! ###

# * ## &# ":(

& : J1&)< F&

&(K

&"- F'2F4' F F &# / ' ;&F) ' 5( ) 1&

6 ' ( #

##&8 &

&# # " &' & & ##

& #"#- ) >#'& ' 0"%( &&

K 6&&' & 5 &&' (

#&&( "

(7)

Abstract

& & +' &(

+ # &+#

* 8# " # ( ( ( +# & #+' #( # & +#

&## +#&'& # # #* " #&#

-".,/#'0 +

#7* ' "

1 = - ,' + - ". ## %#

#0" + #+#

,' &" ## & 9 & &

&:%&F (&'# (

& %#" + & &(& F& & &

+ # " ##& & =

&'##& # "&

& && #&8 # '#&&#

& &" ; ' & (

# (& && +# #"

6 ' & ## 1#( ,' 8 ## * + #( (& ##"#(

& # ' #& &#' ' 8 && #F&&' 8# ( ##

#+# +"

/F # F#&# &# &

% & # &&&#

' # # # +" 7* ' & # '( ( + & # '&

(8)

=,#* # "

## # & # & # * "3 + # & #*&

' ( 8 & # +& ## "6 &

& 7* # &' 7*

& &! # & # *& & F&!

#&#"

&& ( &

&( + # &

#&#&" # * 7* ## (&& '

# " # # (#&#& (

# ' & " &&

(&#&'#' &#" % F # & # && & 8' # #&" : +#

& # ( &# ' # '&' # &&#&"& (&

& #&&&'##

# 7* " && & 8#

#L #L ##& &#' #&"

7* ' ( &# # ' & (& &#&

# #

#* "& '&#&

# # ( & # ( ;LD

# & (" '##&

& ' #&#& #& &

#"&&' > MN #7* '&#&

&( #&&#&#&& # (;LD# & "0 && #&#&

# & "

6 ' & & ' # &+#' +8# 7* ":

&###&#& # &#&"

(9)

&#* &

&(& ' # 8# && +#

##' + ((&## #& +# #

#* "&&##&& # ( +# # # # &

( &# #" # # & (& # & &

# # * ' # # && (&& "

(10)

(11)

8

Listofpapers

Paper1: ) ':"/"'%< '-""'>" =!"% F

&=-,-"./# +'

& &" && %&#& %#

#' D&" =' 3" O' " 9.PQRR' 3( =' S

="=,OL=.9."

Paper2: ) ':"/"''>"%< '-"" =!"A##

& &=-, /# +"&&$ +$ 'D&",'3"

P'"=OP.Q=P='#( ='S="=L=O=,F=F.=.,F"

Paper3: ) ' :"/" ' >" ,!" %# (

& # * 7* ' "

# =R / & 0 # $ +

$ ')'0'=F=1#( ,"

Paper4: ) ':"/"%< '-""'1?&& ':"'>" inreview!"

% &

# S0 7* ' "Submitted&&

%&#&%# #"

Paper5: ) ' :"/"' : ' "' %< ' -""' 1?&& ' :"' % ' 0"

' >" in review!" %& #

& & # ;LD S0 7* ' "Submitted&&

$ +$ "

(12)

(13)

8

Contributionandmotivationtothe individualpapers

= 2% F&=-,-

"./#$ +' &&4!&&

-=',/# +" & &

#& + =R / & 0 #

$ + $ " # ## # &

#+ #8 # " &&&

(#&(&#&8 (# '#

&#&# '##

& #& (& & (& & & (

& &" &

##& 5," &* . &

&"# ( ( ,OT"

2A## &

&=-,/# +4!(' 1#( =F=, ,' # ( - =' , /#

+" # # =R/ &0 #

$ +$ '#F *($ + %# #' %# #&

0 # %# # %## U #&"

( # # &

+"&

& & + ="; '& &

#& & ="

# ( (,T"

9 2%# ( & #

* 7* ' 4!

(14)

8

-"(#7* ' &

# ' &# #& & # &' # & " ' '#

#* 7* '#&& "

& +#

# "

# ( (,T"

R 2%&

# S 0 7* ' 2! (

# 7* & & # # 7* 9" &

9 (& # +& ##' & # ( # "+8## # &","; '

& &*=#(

## /# +"# ( (.T"

O 2%& # & &

# ;LD S 0 7* ' 4! # & 7* ' # &# &

' # " & 9 R' #&#& ( # #" ;LD

# & ( # ( & # &# 7* " ' & & # & ( #&&

#&#& & ' # # ;LD # & "

# ;LD# & &#&&#

=OF & 7* - #F & =" &

#&&( 0 % ' B#' * $&@&

' 7* ' " : ' ' ## && # "-

# ( &' #&&#'

& & # ;LD # & '

#& #"

# ( (T"

(15)

8

: """""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""8 0 (& """""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""8 (&0""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""8

PartI:% """""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""=

=" #""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""9

="= 1 &#+""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""9

=" ;( ( (&#+"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""P

="9 ##* """""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""=

" -=',/# +""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""=9

"= -& /# +""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""=

" A## +# """"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""

"9 1 &/# +"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""9

9" %#* 7* """"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""

9"= ### 7* """"""""""""""""""""", 9" #* 7* """"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""9 9"9 B && 7* """"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""99 9"R $# # & """""""""""""""""9O

(16)

8

9"O $ ##&#"""""""""""9,

R" 0#&""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""RO

O" 6 #""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""R.

O"= 6 ##* /# "R.

O" 6 #* 7* """"""""""""""""""""""""""""O

A #""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""O9

A #""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""OO

PartII: """"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""PO

Paper1:% F&=-,-"./#

+' &&"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""P Paper2:A## & &

=-,/# +""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""..

Paper3:A## & &

=-,/# +""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""=9O

Paper4:%&

# S0 7* ' """"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""=RO Paper5:%& #&&

#;LD S0 7* ' """"""""""""=,O

(17)

1

PartI:Summary

(18)

(19)

9

1. Introduction

& & +' # * & + # # ( 8#" %#

* # ( ((&#&&' #&& (

#(" ((&#& ((&

8# ## && # "

& ( + #&' # # &

&" # #

# ' &(& + ###"

+ # # F !

#" F + # 8# ' + # ##

#*"F&' ((&

+## ##&&

+ A '=..!" # #'#&

+# ((&&(&"

# + & ( #& # & ( & + # " 6

# &' 8# +# #

&&#( " ##

&' ( ( ( & #+"

()##*

&&##"

1.1 Overviewofgroundmotionsimulationtechniques

# # * &

(# # #"# #' #& (& "

# #' ' + #& "" #&'=.,V #&6 * '

(20)

R

=.,V - ' =.P!" && 8

& #+ *" # # #'#+"

Kinematicgroundmotionsimulation

># & # ( S # & +#!' ##

+#!( ( (! ; *&&&"'=...!" # # #&&&&

( " # & &

+#"## #' + &

+## &(ZF

& '=..V=..,V '9V '=.!";(

#( ##

+# ""; *&&&"'OV:&"'PV% &&

&"'=..=!"

( & +###&

+#' & $ #& B W 6# $B6!

; *&&' =.,! #& #+"

& + ( ( & &

( #" $B6 # # # #& #" 6&&'

&&# ('&&##' & " / $B6

#(# # # #

& # " # ( # & = &

##"$B6 + # &&

(&'##(&B W#"#

('## # '#&&

& + + >&"'=..,!"6 #&

+' # # # ( B W #

#&#& # ( " ; ' # $B6 ( && ( & & &

#&##"6 '# # ( # " &

# # &

(21)

O

8# "; '&

#&&( # ; *&&'=.,!"

A# && + ###& &

&(&" 6 # # ;( B W 6# ;B6! #+' #

# # B W #' & &"' V

% && &"' =..=!" B W # #&#& (

#+ ( #( S #&#& &F +# ' # F +#

>&"'=..,V; *&&&"'=...V &"'!";B6

#+' F +# # ##

F +# #F +# +# XF

&&& =.,9!"&F +# ((

#&# &&# # = 9!" ;B6 # #( &F F +#

" & +(

;B6'#+ $B6 >

&"'=..,!"

&(& '=&# #

$B6;B6#( &#(9&# # "

9 # & &# # &(& & ' &F +# #(#&#&9 #

#" F& ###(#&8 # &=&# # #

#&#& &#&9& # "

Dynamicgroundmotionsimulation

# & + &&

&8 # & #& ' =.,V #& 6 * '=.,!" # # #&#

# #'# & # ##" #& ' # & +

# & ' # # ' & & # # "

# # # &# &

& ; 'R!" '#& &(

& # F '&' &#

(22)

P

# #& ; *&&'O!"

# # # +" # # &&

# ' & # &" # &#' # &8 # &&' &' &8' # F #&'=.,!" F # &

& &# #& & - '=.P!"

#&&#& +&

# &&"#&& + ""1&

&" =..! &" =! 8& =.. : +!'& (( '#(

& " ( #&#& #

# & & ( & # ( F8 & # 1&&"'=..!" #&'& ' F '&& # &#( "

' ( ( ( +# & #+'

#& & &' " ( ( ( # ' # #&#& #+

& # & +# "=F= ;*' # +#( # # & (&" ' &

#( & (& #

" = # & &# # #

& && ( # &&" &#&

# %#9"O O"

1.2 Hybridbroadbandsimulationtechnique

( ( ( # &

# # # #&#&"

&& #&F& # &&

"& &&

# ( # & &' #&

# ## ( & +#

"&&&

(23)

# & >( R! & &" R!"

#&#& +# "= = ;*" B

& #&#& && +# "=F

;*##&& =F=;*" +# ="PF;*

& #(; "& &

& #+ ( & &#

+# (" +# &

&' #& (&F#& & +#

& +#"

Lowfrequencygroundmotionsimulation

&F +# #&#& +#"=F;*"

&&F +# &

(&' # #" &

(( ## ("&'

#&#&(&# &##(&'

& (&'&

&&" # ##&#& #&&

# ( # =.,=!"6 ' &F& # & &# # # (

#&#& #&# ##"

# # YZ[\ ]Y_^

_ `= a `R _ Z[ b c d \ c ee'

M0# #'t W

&>('R!"

# ( # =.,=! B W

# &# ' 8 (& &

+# *&( '#(8#&

# " & ' # (

# #& # #+&# # "

#( ## & # '

#&#"6 #'# *&

( '& #& (&"

&# & + #&#& &F +#

(24)

,

"&&#&

&#& & & #"

# # &

&( &&& &

#" # =.,=! = # *

& #"6 ' (&

= "

Highfrequencygroundmotionsimulation

F +# =F= ;*! #&#&

&' #&#& &F +# "

F +# # # #&#&

## # =.,9!"&F +#

&& (& ( ( ' && # (; *&& =.,! #&B W#"

## & F +# (

&#&& # "& ##(

+#' ##

& '#&# +& ##

' =.,9!" #( #& # #+

& # ( # " ( &&# # ' '

# ( +#B"6 ' # ( #&#& ( # (#"

## + # '## &

# +* F "#F +#

( +*"#M0'

# +#fc' # & # +" &(

f_g] R". _ =^h_ i _ jkl Y_^m

npo

'

(25)

.

E &#'V F '=.!"

F +# (# &&( F '=.,9!"

#&B W# &&(; *&& =.,!' & ( ( =.,P!" =.,P!

& + # & && +' (&#( &(&"

Frequencydependentradiationpattern

##& =.,9! # =FT' +& & #&

' + &"

(&&(&>( R! +#

"

%D %; # (

& >( R!' (&F#& &F +#

# F +# ( +# & =F9;*!"

#' ##(#

#F # *F& # +# &

>('R!"

+# 'Rpm,

q_rsZt' u' v\ ] w_sZx' y' z' t' u\' v { v_n' q_rsZt' u' v\ ] wsZx' y' z' t' u\ a

|^}^~' b w_sZx' y' z' t' u\ __Z^Z^\

\' v_n{ v { v' q_rsZt' u' v\ ]^}^~' ' v v'

Fm & ## %D %; ' (A# !"I'G'O ' ' #&' # e&i*T,Z +#,andZ1Z2

& +# (' # +#

(26)

=

"# # %F%D %;" q_' ## & %F"

( =.,R!

q_' ] w_d _^ _sZx' z' y' t' u\ t _ u _ t

t _ u _ t_d _^

s'

"

###&#& &&

#& TqF=,q!"

& +# ''#& +#

' #

_sZv\ ]q_rsZt' u' v\ _ Y_^_ Zv' f_g\ _ w__kLZ\__ Zv' v_s\ R¡¢i^ok "

mW # ##& 6 # #'S(Z^,f^c⁾ZF+ #&'# +#

("FS&# #''#(

# # P(Z^,Z^max⁾F +##FF # ##& # & >(' R!" ( ( (

&#+##&&& #""

' 5 & >(' R! R % ' %< &"'! +"

1.3 Addressingthedeterministicseismichazard

# ( ( ( +#

& & # & # * "

% ## & & + (##"# #

&&#+" ### # # # * " #&

# ,/#'0 +#7* '

&## "

# ## , /# +' #&&#+"

# # ( ( ( &

(27)

==

#+W#(& #( "&'&

#&8&(& &&&(&

& & &

&&& =!"/# + &

& #&& & ( (&" &

+# 1#( , ( ## ((&#

( & !"

7* '## +* #' #"3& +## #=, ((& & + & & #

#R&&(# ) ## "( ( ( &#+&#&#&8#

& +# " 8 &&

#&#' ##

&& 7* 9!"%#

# + # &

# ' (& &

R!" & ( ( ( & #+ #&#&

( ##"7* &#&

&&" '&#( # & #& # * 7* " & &#& # # # (

;LD# & ( ( "

&' #&& #&#&(&&#&

> MN #7* O!"

(28)

(29)

=9

2. TheMay12,2008Wenchuan earthquake

1-=,' +-".## %# #

0" +# ,'#&&

O&&&&" O"9P&&(&

+' = && (& &

%#( #"##&

+ =R(&&% >& &"'=V%B%' .!"

Figure 1. Tectonic setting around the Tibetan plateau situated between the northward moving Indian plate and stable Eurasian plate. Major plate boundaries are given in gray, main faults are given in black. The GPS velocities are shown as red arrows. The Longmen Shan foldthrust belt (LFTB)islocatedinsidetheblackbox

(30)

=R

/# + & #& + # && & & (

##" &' # && 3& % - 1( 3 %0 & - #,!

+ # &"

/# + ## & : % &F (&

6 =!' %# ((&"

(#&& F&

(& $ &" & # ( & # V # & ##

&& F F&&#>& && &!

£ & &! &" # : % &F (& (&# RL ' /# + #&&"',V 0&"'VGG'=.,!'6 ="

Figure2.ProbabilisticseismichazardmapofAsia.TheareaoftheWenchuanearthquakeiswithin the blue dashed box and the approximate location of the Longmen Shan foldtrust belt is marked withablackline.ModifiedfromZhangetal.(1999).Themapismadefora475yearsreturnperiod.

(31)

=O

##(&( &

-¤ +## &>&£&

& # " P9,F=.,9 & 9O + -¤O

## %F:% " + -"O=.998 # /# +!

-"## =.P % =R /# +! G' ,!" ## #

*0'& 8# +& * , /# - "9 G' ,!" 6 ((&# # * B%; B&(& %# ;*

!" -8 8# & :

%&F (& ((9"L RO G &"' =...!' # # & &

&&( ,/# +"

/# + 8&9"

#' & &

F&" ##& && = # : &"' ,!"

% & &&& & 8#

+ #& &# RFO ' 8 &

&#' #&&

:&"'.!"

% & & ( (

&# ' ( (& && 5 ;' ,V

>&"'.V3 &"'.V3 C'.V/

&"',VG&"',VG&"'=! 6 96 9

=!"# #&

&&# "&3 &" .!'G

&" =!' / &" ,!' > &" .! 3 C ,!&& &# # &

&"&(G&" ,! F& #&

# '(&( &

# ' & & & O & "

& /&" ,!# &('&

& # # #& & & &

& &&&& "&&&&

( #( &#&##

&# B%"8& &

(32)

=P

O = ' & & & &

&&"

Figure3.SlipdistributionsfortheWenchuanearthquake.Modifiedfroma)Nakamuraetal.2009,b) Zhaoetal2010,c)Zhangetal.2008andd)Wangetal.(2008).Notice,theslipmodelsarenotatthe samescale,andthewidthofthedifferentfaultsareapproximatelythesame.Thelengthofthefaults alsovary,withthelongestbeingthemodelfromZhangetal.(2008),whichis500kmalongstrike, whereastheothersareapproximately300kmalongstrike.Thesegment“2”ind)ismodeledfora faultstrandparalleltosegment“1”.

(33)

=

2.1 ModelinggroundmotionfortheWenchuanearthquake

/# + &

&#+# (%#=""#

& &' & & " &

&'#&&#&#& #&(

# " # & (& & &

&(& "&&

6 9 = >&" .!'5; ,!

3 C ,!"

&& >&" .!9=&R"

&'

# F&#"

& &# &# ' 8

&#."&& 5; ,!9=O&

R " & & &# # & &' 8&#(.F="&& 3 C ,! 9 & , " &

&# #& & &" 6 #'& ' F

&#"8&#&"&&

( # & ( # &# &&

+" & # +

& *(& ="

(& ( #&&

+# 6 R"&& # &

& ( & & #

&# "& & # (

& > &" .! 5 ; ,! &

(( ##& B!&## BD!"&'

#&#& && &&( "

&(& 3 C ,!

&& # "/&&#

# &'# (&

3 C ,! F # &

&"#8&& &"

(34)

=,

Figure 4. Simulated PGA (ac) and PGV (df) distribution from the scenario earthquakes based on threedifferentfinitefaultslipmodels.Blackboxesshowthesurfaceprojectionoftherupturedfault andthestar,trianglesandblacksquaresshowtheepicenter,locationsofseismicstationsandcities, respectively.

& & & > &" .!' 5 ; ,!' 3 &" .!'G&" =!'G&" ,!/&"

,!&&&RFO"&'&

( ;(( % .!

8&R"0 && #

(35)

=.

&&&& 3 C ,!' #&#& # " # & &

3 C ,! #&# R"

&&&& 3 C ,! 6 O" 6 & # &

&&# +' &, (" &' ( &

# & ' # & &

( & & > &" .! 5 ; ,!'(&& &&"

Figure 5. Simulated ground motion distributions based on the modification of the model from Nishimura and Yagi (2008). Black boxes show the surface projection of the ruptured fault and the star, triangles and black squares show the epicenter, locations of seismic stations and cities, respectively.

& && +# (

& & " &

# #&&":#

( *(%#' 8&O(&&' (&'&#&R (&&' "

# # # ' & && ( 8#(&&& &&&

& " '# &

'####( &&'&&

+# "

(36)

&

& /&&" =...!(£ ( ) &

&"&# && # &(

& #' 8# F&

"6 & &

6 =! (& (0

$ + " &' (

& &" & &

#+ # # # &&'

& #"

2.2 Reconnaissancevisittotheearthquakeaffectedarea

& ## /# + 1#( =,=.', ( # ( +" ' /# + =O" # #'

&&' #&&'( &&"# #&

# " & C' ,!"

&#' ' && # &&

##' (& ###

# # ( & ## #+#

&& +"

& ## ' # C8' &' ;

#' && &# & # ' V && &#

# # 6 &#!"C8

&# "(&##&

& ## # ## # ( #

&&F ( # "( (F # & # & '(&8 #

#&&'& && #&"&# (&

&&#'& F(#&(&' #& 6 P!"

(37)

=

Figure 6. Pictures taken during the field reconnaissance trip in October 18 and 19, 2008. a) Fault scarpinBailu,b)Yingxiu,c)Hangwang,d)rockfallinBeichuan,e)materialcarriedthedebrisflow inBeichuan.

B &&' & #&& # ( # &

#"$#&&C8; 6 P(#!

(& ( & # # ## #" # && + &&

### (&"(&

((&&&&# # + (&#"

# & C8' 8& ,T (& #&&

+ 6 P(!" 0 &' # & ;' .F .OT (& && && #&&

8& 9 6 P#!" C8

;' # & ( 8& (

&& "/& &8 P99

#L '8( #&;

,#L :&"',(!"3 # &(& C8'

(38)

( # 8 & & 6 9 8V 6 9 =V 6 !' 8 # +"

Figure 7. Overview of Beichuan. a) Photo of Beichuan before the Wenchuan earthquake (photo sourceunknown).b)PhotoofBeichuan,takeninJuly2008,aftertheWenchuanearthquake.(Photo byDr.GonghuiWang,KyotoUniversity,Japan).a)andb)arefromthehomepageofUSGSLandslide HazardProgram(2009).c)PhotoofBeichuantakeninOctober2008,afterthedebrisandmudflow.

Housesareidentifiedwithcoloredcirclesonthethreepictures.

(39)

9

## #'#

#&# &&("6&&

+' & & && # && ' #

& 6 P!" 6 ' && + - ,' # 8 # & ( F & %( , 8& & ## ! 6 P!"

8 ( #(9O#L :&"'

,(!" #& & #" ; '

#&&&&' ( '#

#" ' # & ##(&& (

&"6 ' # #' 8&

' # " # ( +'

# # + # ( &" # ' &&&& + # 6 (' (&(##& # #& # !'&(&

#& &&"6

# &&( & 6 #!'#& 9!

( &# #(&"

##& # "

0 ( # & &'

&

+' #( (& +# ( '&#&& # "&

( #

##& # '# # & :&"',! 6

=R =!"; ' +#( &' # +#(#(#(#'# #&

&"

2.3 OthersimulationstudiesoftheWenchuanearthquake

/# +(& ( '

&#+%#="="

= (& #& /# +

&& %&#& %# # %%! ="

(40)

R

&& %%

#&' &#/# + 0*

&"'=VB&"'=V> '=!"

&(&="

Table 1. Overview of the simulation studies of the Wenchuan earthquake, presented in the special issueontheeventofBSSA,2010.

Authors Method Slipmodel(s)

0*&" 9 ' #

5; .!

B&" %## >&" ,!

A&

>

;( S:F +#S

# (

";F +#S

$6B

%

>&" .!

0*&" =!## & &

' &F +# # #&#&"

& ( F # ( - =.P!" + &#& ###&

#& ' # # # ' ' &! & & # * " #&

# 5; ,! & (

# (' # # F # #" # & & "

& & # # # & #" &' # # &

%A! #&&&

# 9 # &# ( - - #&& #&" 6 ' 9 &* &F +## "

( B &" =! ## F&

=..V =..,! ( &

/# +" F&&&V (&>&" ,! (&'

& &(&#' "&

(41)

O

&#+'# #' &#&

# ##" ; ' &F

#&#&#& 0& &#&

&#&#"& & # # # ( OT

##& # 6 & # " &' ( # #&#& #&"

> =!&/# +(

" & &* &F' F ( ( +# " &F +# ( #&&# /3( #'=.,=!'&

F +# ((&$B6"%# # #/# + &(&'$B6 # && , F- 3 + 5 # & #& # /#

+" ## # # && =...!"&&

& >&" .!"; '&

&# '& #&"

#+& &

(& 8' # # # & "

& & # +# ('

##& # &## "

% & &# # &

& /# +" &' # 8#& & # 8 "

3 &'&&(&8 # # # #( /#

+"

& & ( 0* &"

=! ( " ; ' #&&

&' #&6 &# ( " &' 9 &* &F +# #

&#'#& #&&("# &

8& & & &' & (&

& 8 #& # #& &"

(42)

P

8 # &# # 8 (

# ( -- #&& & "

; ' && F #&

# & "

& B&" =!&& B(

+ &' &

##& &# "# 0*

&" =! 6 # # & ##& &&

# ( "&

# =FR 6 ==B&"'

=!"

( > =! & # ' F +# &' ( F (# # #' #&" # ##& #

&## & +##

& ( ( " & # +##( "$B6&&

& " # &

$B6' #&#&# ##

&"; ' + $B6'

%#="=' #$B6( # " 1 #& # >

=! # 5 +$B6 &

/# +' #

#' #&#L #B W

# ;B6! #&#&"

& /#

+'& #+&

8 ## # ( +# # # &

&&" ; ' 8# ( ( +# & #&("&

& %# "= "' & +# # (' &

# #& #"

(43)

3. Seismichazardassessmentforzmir

# ## # 7* ' #

& # 8&R&&(":#

F& ' 7* #&&

##&&# $ "

7* &# #& & &' # # &

' #

& # &" # # # * ( # #

* ' # + ## #& ' #& =," && # +' ( 8& O ( 6&' =..OV *#

*#'=..V*#&"'=..!"

% & & & ( &#

7* " #'###&& # "

( (& # #' &(&

(#* "&&

7* &# #& &"

8#& +'

# # #* "

#* 7* ' ' " 6 ' # & # & # * 7*

& + # & & # 7* " %#' #

& #

# " '8# ##

# & ' & ( # &&

# ( ;LD # & ( " ' #

###&& *

"

(44)

,

3.1 TectonicsettingandseismicityofwesternTurkeyandzmir

& F& (

#&& # ( & $ ' #&& ( F B # &( &F # &

;&&# (# * * &"' =..=! 6 ,!"

#&& ( & $ #

&# &' # ## & & F

&&'3 & F& &!$& &F& &!

&" #&(# %&;&&#

#'#(# #8"8&#(&(F &&

(# #&' &#&& F## ' 8 & & F B (&#

& & 5&' = # V * &"' !"

$# ## # (# # 8 F ( # '#B&0 'B*B (@@

- B (' # %"

&## *6 ,"

6 ,"Tectonic map of the AegeanAnatolian region. Solid black lines show faults and plate boundaries, modified from Bird (2003), ten Veen (2004) and McClusky et al. (2000). Heavy black arrowsshowtheplatemotionsoftheAfricanandArabianplatesrelativetoastableEurasia,thered arrow gives the plate motion of the African plate relative to a stable Anatolian plate. All plate motionsaretakenfromtheNUVEL1Areferencemodel(DeMetsetal.,1990).Locationsofthemain structuresaregivenasfollows:GC,GulfofCorinth;G,GedizGraben;B,BüyükMenderesGraben.The locationofzmirismarkedwithareddot.

(45)

.

# %( # + & ;&&# # & # B #

&(' F& & & # 6 .!" % F

& # + ## & 3

&6&# %"&

# B # # ' & & +

#8&"#&#&#

% 6 ."

Figure9.ActivefaultsandearthquakefocalmechanismsintheAegeanregion.Red,greenandblue symbols are used for normal faulting events and faults, strikeslip faulting events and faults and thrustfaultingeventsandfault,respectively.ThefaultplanesolutionsarecompiledfromtheINGV, USGSandGlobalCMTdatabases.

% &B%(## F&

&&# -#0&'V3# ' R # ! 6 =!" # & &" # &# &

%" -#0& &" ! #&

# & &# & # &

'# 8" (& &

(46)

9

# & '&# F#&# ' 6 =" & # % ( ( 3 # R!" # &#&&# 7* "

Figure10.GPShorizontalvelocitiesand95%confidenceellipsesinaEurasiafixedreferenceframe from19881997,dataplottedisfromMcCluskyetal.(2000).Theplateboundariesandfaultsfrom Figure8arealsoshown.

0 F#&# &# # &

& # 7* " # & # 7* ( ( $ &" O! # &

# (# + F7*

O' -¤O"9## &"' P!"

# & &# & 7* ( & ( ¥ >N&N¦¥& P! &#& B%

##&& & &S7* & F'&#

7* !'*&& F '&#

7* ! B@&(¦ & F' &# 7* !' 6 ==" & B% &&F#& (&#

# &&#(&'# (

(47)

9=

#' #&& % *& &" 0 7* # (# &#

"

Figure11.Mapoftheareaaroundzmir.Faultsaregivenasthickblacklines,andnamesaregivenin red font (Emre et al, 2005). The historic earthquakes in the area are indicated as white circles (AmbraseysandFinkel,1995;PapazachosandPapazachou,1997;Papazachosetal.,1997)andthe GPSvelocityfieldfromAktuandKlçolu(2006)isshownaswhitearrows.

7* 8 # # + & # " # #& # 6 ==" # #&

# 7* *& & # &

( 6&'=..OV*#*#'=..V*#

&"'=..!"

&& +7* ## =,-P"R"

#( +=P,, -§P",!=9

- §P"R!" #& # & # (& ( 8&(#&(& " +

&&#87* "=P,, (&#&&

#'#&& "

F+ (&#(& &' #&&' #&& #&& "

(48)

9

#& 8&P#' (O& && ( 6&'=..O!"

6&&=, +'& 7* &&&

(& & #&&" &

+' '# &"- &

&& + ( 6&'=..O!"

&9 & +## #&

7* "0 &# ## & (¥

>N&N¦¥& P!' & 8# (& #

&"& 7* # (&

"

3.2 Previousseismichazardassessmentsforzmir

#* & 7* (

## & #& &#& #&" && * ((&# ' & &

"

1 &#& ((&##* &(

B%; )# B &"'=...!%$%-$ )#

%$##%#* -$ ! 5*

&"'9!"/ RO =T ((&8##

O ! # B "9F"O ( # #" %# &' & # ( &

## & 7* " 1& & #& # ' # 3

&&;&&# ##& 8 "

1 &#& #&' ((&# # * 7*

*&"'=V--'!" ((&##*

7* $ + - & --' ! 8# B ( # # RO ( "F"R ' &&

& &#"*&" =!(& & "9F"R!

#"& &"

(49)

99

3.3 Groundmotionsimulationsonfaultsnearzmir

# # * 7*

# & # # # & &

#* " & # 7* &'&#&

#7* '&&(&#&

7* " ()# 9 ( # && 7* & & #

&' (& +

& "&& ## (%#=""

Figure12.Mapshowingthesimplifiedfaultsforwhichgroundmotionsimulationswereconducted.

Thecodesforthevariousscenariosarewritteninbluenexttotherespectivefaults.

3 + # & & &

6 =!" %# =F0 OF0 & 7* - &' #&" & &' & #& ¤R ! (& # (&"6 7* & # V

# '

#(("6 -&' +#

&"%# B6'96R%6 +

(50)

9R

&B@&(¦'*&% &' #&"&&

F&#" # +#

*(&= 9"

Figure13.PGAdistributionofthenineearthquakescenariosonactivefaultsinthevicinityofzmir.

Whiteboxesshowthesurfaceprojectionoftherupturedfaultplane.

& &' B (' && +

# 6 =9"& &

# &B@&(¦'*&% &"; '&

# 7* +#

&7* &" & # 7*

& # " + # & *& &

&# &"

# 7* '#

&&' ' ( &

(51)

9O

7* " + # ' ##&

&7* *&&& ' 7* "

3.4 Effectofparameteruncertaintyonsimulatedgroundmotions

& 98# ((

+ # & &" ; ' # + 9 ( 8 & + #

# &#'## & ##

" # # #

&"##&#9"9 9' ##

#* 7* ( &7* &"

;#' #

& &&"

&'#(## - % 3 && &&"'RV%< &"'(!"

'# +&& &

# & & F& &!

#&"

&& # & &" R!

%< &" (!' ## # & # & # ( &

# " #&& ' +# X!' ' &# &' # ' F ((# F !' F ' ' &#' ' &#

& ## (&=

R!" #&#& ( # #'

# & 7* #

" (&# #9"O O"

(52)

9P

Figure 14. PGA and PGV distributions for the reference scenario. White lines show the surface projectionofthefaultplaneandasperity,andthewhitestarindicatestheepicenter.

(BBD ## 6

=R" ( & &&

( + # & 7* & 9" 6 & & & " &

#&' 9" & && #' &

' 9"

&&##& #"0

& # #&

& ## R #& &

( & # +=06&7* &

9 6 =O!"

Figure 15. Comparison of the simulated peak ground accelerations to empirical attenuation relations,seelabelsfordetails.Scenario1CIFinPaper3(left)andthereferenceinPaper4(right).

(53)

9

& ( #

# ( ( #

# " &#

(& # && & &#

&'#' &#"' F

&# &#(& &&

& 8' ##&"

& (& ( ( &"

( B BD ## # 6 =P"& (&

#&( # &&'#

# & 7* "0&

8##L#L B

BD' #&" 6 & # &

# "

Figure 16. Spatial distribution of standard deviation of PGA (left) and PGV (right) based on the referencescenarioandthe27testscenarios.Surfaceprojectionofthefaultplaneandasperityofthe referencescenarioareshownaswhiteboxes;theruptureinitiationpointofthereferencescenariois indicatedasastar.

# &

+#("% F ' F X&#

F +# ' & &# ' # '&' &#&& #

&F +# "

(54)

9,

OT&# # # 7* ' # # # 6 =" &

# # &&&

# # " 6 & +#' &

# ( ' +#"&&& 6 =, R' ( # & &#

+#("

Figure 17. 5% damped spectral velocity for a station located in the center of zmir. The black line show the spectral velocity for the reference scenario, while the gray lines are for the 27 test scenarios.

## & +# '

#* &"/

# (& &# #

* "6 7* &

&#7* '## & (&

+ &7* & #"

#&& # & (& # "

3.5 Estimationofgroundmotionstakingintoaccountsoilconditions

#7* & &&#'#

8# & & & &

( #"& 7* (#&#&

( ##'&#&# #&"

O&#&# # &(&*

"8 # &#7* "

(55)

9.

$ +'&# 7*

(&"6 =,# (&> MN #7* '

# &&"

' # 8 # & +"%#

+ # # # * 7* "

Figure18.PicturesofhousesintheKaryaka,districtofzmir.Tiltingofthestructuresduetosoft soil conditions is visible. The picture at the lower right is from the rear of the house shown in the upperrow.Theanglebetweentheyellowlinesisapproximately1015q^.

7* $ + - & (& &#& # 7*

8# &# &+#

& 6 =.! --' !" &# &

# "6 '& &# 8#

7* '&&# # (!" 6 ' #& &+#

# "

(56)

R

Figure 19. Amplification factors (top) and liquefaction potential (bottom). The colored area correspondstothelimitsofthemetropolitanareaofzmir.ModifiedfromMMI.(2000).

( -- ! # +# #

&#'## # +#

## ( #&&&#&"

O (& ;LD# & : 0H*F B #¨' =..RV 3 ' =.,.V ,V =! ( ( #" & ( #

(57)

R=

# #& # & #& > ' =..P!" #

# R "

# # "

%& # # 7* ' # # ( # # ' & # & &#

" & 7* ' #

& 8# '&& ##

&(&"B*A # 7* '#&-M # 6 &#!"

#'(& &'&#-M '8##

# " 7* '>A

& &" & B* A ' &&&"#

# (& ("

( ### 7* ( " 6# #' &

&& " > MN'

>-M 6 &#!"6 ;LD# & ' & +#&#8 #"B &

8W(&& +#'

& #(& # &# ( &"'=..,V;&"'V3 '=.,.V=VF0&"'

=..P!"0 (8#&#6

&# # -- !' ( &

8#&#&&'&&

&& &#" 0 ( -- ! 8#

&# ;LD # & #&& F &" #

&#' &#&

;LD # & # &

## & # 7* " 6

> MN' > -M ;LD # & #&#&

( # " # # &##&#& && ' (&R O &"

(58)

R

Figure 20. Distribution of maximum amplification factor found from the H/V spectral ratios. The sitesofspecialinterestaremarkedwithblueboxes.Trianglesshowthelocationsofmeasurements.

3 =!&'Kg KgALf0' A&#f0 & +#!' & &' #

&+#' & ( # "Kg&(

;LD# & # & &'#&+#' &N ( ! ( # & &"

&## $ &" !#&#& >' -M > MN &(&&#

& + &7* &"#

6 > MN&&#& &'(

#&#& #&& '# ;LD# &

( & ( "

&&& # 8 ( & # &# # #

(59)

R9

&#&"& ###%;>$

1 ª«*' ==!" & & #& #&#&

& +# ( # #

& +# ;LD# & > MN"&

#& # P = ! &' &(& +#'f0' &#'vs,ave'

#&#&'HS

f_^]¬_'

R _ ®"

&( &FF #"

Figure21.Transferfunctionscalculatedforthetwosoilcolumns.Thetypeofinputgroundmotionis given in the legend, and the average H/Vcurve for Karyaka is shown in green. The modeled soil columnsarealsoshownwithcorrespondinglayerthicknessesandvelocities.

6 = #( ( & ( & #& "

(60)

RR

#(( &

#& ##& &# ;LD# & "

&'& ' &

& +# &# # ' 8#

& ( &# +# + (' & ( &L 'G'

&#

¬] ¯°

¢'

U"& &#( # '

& &#& &#&=

#"

&#& # # 7*

* 7* " O &

# & & # # 7* "( &&#"&(

8 # ( &# # & #&" /

# #& & ( # #(

F& 8"

(61)

RO

4. Conclusions

# ( " # ( ( ( +# &#+(&' #* /#'07* ' "

&&##&#( ( S

ForWenchuan,China:

x & - =' , /#' 0 + #& 8( "

& # & ( &&' & &#& # (

# &"

x &&&&

/# +#& &#&

&# F "& # ( (&R"

x & ##

( ' &

(& + # /# +"

8( 8&('&

* + # # ##'#&&

& (&"

x '&#'8&&

#&&8# (###+#

# " 6& #&8 # ( ( ' #

# &&'#& & ""

(62)

RP

#' &# # &

# #"

Forzmir,Turkey:

x ## #* 7*

R&7* &'# -P". +' #" &

& && #&

&'## &# # "B ( # &&' # & #' 8#

8#O#LP#L BBD' #&"

x & &# (&

&& &# &' # ' &#" % F && &# (&

&& #&' #&#"

x & (&& (

&& 8##L#L

BBD' #&"

x &F +# & # ( &#

' # ' & '

&#"

# (& &" &' F F & # F +#

"

x & +# ;LD # & # &

&& ##7* ":&#& '

&# ' # &

& +#' & # ' # ( ## ' & +#"

x &## ;LD# & &

" : &# # 8# 7* "

> &' #&& &N # &

(63)

R

&'#&+#' +

&7* &"

x ## & #' #&#&

;LD# & ( & ' (

& # ( #

#"

x & & & #& > MN &

# & & &

+#'# ( # "# &

= && &#&& "

( ( (&#+( &&

& &# "& # (&

( & # ' & &# &

"0 #&&#+

# - P",' ' 5 & >(' R! - ."9' R % ' %< &"' ! +'

##&&& + "'

& ( &#

#* # &

"1## # +,/#'0

== ;' 5 + # 8 # &

' 8#8 &&## # ((&' # * " 3 &' & ((&

## # & # " ((& ## #' 8# && +#

( &' # &

&&# (&

(& # "

# &

/# +' #& +

&& %&#& %# #'

# & & 8 #(& # ( && +# # # '

(64)

R,

&8# #& #"

' ( ( ( +# & #+ &

+&&&& &#+"

/ & # & # * # & #& "

% & +# ' ' (# #*

&" &

# 8#( & 8 # &#+#+&

"

(65)

R.

5. Futureperspectives

#* # #'&

#&#& ' ' # & ( " (& # %# 9"R R!#( &&+"

& ' #&

&#' # && & && # &

"&'#&#&&(#

&' ($B6 (#&

'# (%#9"O O"%##

#* (/#

7* &&#"

5.1 FutureaspectsinassessingtheseismichazardfortheWenchuan area

6&&,/# +'0&( &

(## "" &"',V&"',!"&

# && #&&

/# +" ## &" ,! &

# £& 6 = &#!"

&F& & F& &' 0&( # &

=O " %# & # +

"O /&&0 '=..R!"%& >&& F& &

&&!( #& '#&&

&"& # +-¤

' # & &" ' &# +&(##

8# &' # ' "" ( (& # & (

"

Deterministic seismic hazard assessments through hybrid ground motion simulation: Case studies for Wenchuan, China and Izmir, Turkey