DRAFT SLIDES Refleksjoner fra
ledelsesperspektivet
Steinar Kolstø Wintershall Dea
Ptil“HMS ogKultur” 2019
RISK
FOOTNOTE TOPIC, AUTHOR, DATE PAGE 2
BLACK SWANS
Probability-based thinking and historical data
Knowledge
Unforeseen events and surprises
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Norsk Olje og Gass–”Sorte svaner” 2017
THREE TYPES OF BLACK SWANS
FOOTNOTE TOPIC, AUTHOR, DATE PAGE 3
BLACK SWANS
Unknown unknowns Unknowns knowns Improbable knowns
Black swans are unthinkable, unforeseen and surprising events.
Norsk Olje og Gass–”Sorte svaner” 2017
FOOTNOTE TOPIC, AUTHOR, DATE PAGE 4
RELUCTANCE TO SIMPLIFY
PREOCCUPATION WITH FAILURE SENSITIVITY TO
OPERATIONS
COMMITTMENT TO RESILLIENCE
DEFERENCE TO
EXPERTIZE
FOOTNOTE TOPIC, AUTHOR, DATE *P PAGE 5
Ptil 2013 –Bok om læring
Sikkerhetsforum 2019 –Ansvar, roller og samarbeidsmodeller